The US wireless industry might have entered a new era in Q4 2025 — one defined not by the steady, predictable growth of the first half of 5G cycle, but by an escalating competitive intensity that shattered the truce and reset the rules. For the first time in the 5G cycle, postpaid churn crossed 1%, industry device costs hit an all-time record, and the spoils of growth became more uneven. One operator had its best net-adds quarter since 2019. Another saw profits collapse by more than half in a single quarter. A third quietly extended its structural lead in ways the market hasn’t fully priced in. The eye-popping $24.8 billion spent on devices in a single quarter and what it portends for 2026 margins may be one of the most important numbers in the industry right now.
Beneath the headline metrics, three deeper battles are quietly determining who wins the decade: the race to lock households into converged fiber-and-mobile bundles, the arms race in satellite connectivity that is redrawing coverage maps, and the looming consolidation that will reshape an industry where some companies are increasingly running out of runway. One operator has the strongest cash position and the clearest strategic momentum. Another has placed the biggest structural bet in the industry’s recent history. A third is running out of time to close the gap.
FWA now controls 16% of the broadband connections and at current pace might touch 25% by the end of next year.
Our Q4 2025 US Mobile Market Update covers all of it: the numbers, the strategy, the nuances, the details of what transpired last year, the fault lines, the competitive dynamics, and what comes next.
Dive right in for insights that will keep you ahead in 2026 and beyond.
Topics covered in the research update.
• Q4 2025 US Mobile Market Highlights
• 2025: State of the industry and looking forward
• Earnings – Reading the Tea Leaves
• The dreaded price war is here, now what?
• Elon Musk – Catalyst or Nuclear Bomb?
• Exploding Device Costs
• The Convergence Imperative: How the Big Three Are Playing a Different Game
• The Dreaded Price war is here. Now what?
• AI-RAN: Where do we go from here?
• Nvidia + Nokia – Implications
• Fight for the 6G Narrative
• T-Mobile Capital Market’s Day Update
• Impact of T-Satellite
• 5G Advance in the US
• Service Provider Market is consolidating – What’s Next?
• FWA vs. Cable in 2026
• Industrial 5G – Closing the Innovation and Diffusion gap
• Global 5G Race Update
• Q4 and What It Portends for 2026
• US Wireless Market Q4 2025 Analysis
o Service Revenues
o ARPU
o Subscribers
o Competition
o 5G Progress
o Fixed Wireless Progress
