Mobile Predictions Survey 2012
As is the tradition, we are running our
annual
Mobile Predictions Survey for 2012. Will appreciate your input
in understanding the trends and news stories that will make 2012
another big year in mobile. Winners of the survey get our
fabulous limited edition
Mobile Future Forward 2011 book
that contains 19 essays from the global leaders in the mobile
industry.
US Mobile Market Update
Q3 2011
http://www.chetansharma.com/usmobileupdateQ32011.htm
Download PDF
Summary
The US mobile market continued its blistering pace of growth and
ecosystem restructuring. While China and India lay claim to the
fastest growing markets on the planet, the many of the
meaningful and impactful trends are originating out of the US
market with software at the epicenter of creation, growth,
change, evolution, and destruction.
The US wireless data market grew 5% Q/Q and 21% Y/Y to reach
$17B in mobile data service revenues in Q3 2011 and is on course
to increase Y/Y by 22% to $67B in 2011.
As predicted, Samsung overtook Apple as the leading smartphone
OEM. However, Apple will continue to dominate profit share for
the foreseeable future.
Smartphones continued to be sold at a brisk pace accounting for
57% of the devices sold in Q3 2011. Operators are averaging 70%
of their postpaid sales as smartphones with Android dominating
though iPhone leads in mindshare. The featurephone as a device
species is on the verge of extinction.
Mobile Ecosystem Complexity
As expected, Amazon entered the mobile tablet space with a
killer value proposition - $200 for a tablet, something the
market sorely needed. While other OEMs tried to compete with
Apple on performance (and have been retreating from the market
one by one), Amazon is entering the battle on its own turf – a
hardware platform built on Android with a slew of services to
underwrite the device discount. Incumbent OEMs just can’t
compete with that strategy without a complete rethink of their
product strategy. What happens when Amazon’s strategy migrates
to handsets? While Kindle Fire is not a serious threat to Apple
iPad, and the current version has a lot of deficiencies, Amazon
has carved out a nice market for itself that will continue to
grow in the coming days. In some sense, with its tight
integration of commerce, cloud, and advertising, it has
out-maneuvered even Google.
Amazon’s impact will be felt by many others in 2012 as its
strategy becomes more apparent. Retailers will be facing the
brunt of the wave that Amazon represents i.e. etailers
supplanting physical retailers. Don’t be surprised if Amazon
purses Apple like stores to showcase its merchandize and puts a
dagger at the heart of retail.
Google has done a masterful job of shepherding Android through
the turbulent platform waters and make it the dominant mobile
platform in terms of shipments.
Microsoft and Nokia finally introduced the Windows devices and
it has at least given them a fighting chance in 2012, though a
far more competitive offering would be needed to make any
significant market share or revenue share inroads. Microsoft’s
Xbox/Kinect integration remains its best card for 2012.
In a severe case of corporate schizophrenia, HP first launched
webOS devices, then backed away, then thought of re-launching
only to give it away to open source. Similarly, RIM faces
critical test in 2012 and all its hopes are pinned on the new OS
that is expected to come to the market sometime next year.
Mobile is changing the way we spend
It is very clear that mobile will be at the center of the human
evolution for years to come. Mobile collapses time and distance
and as such impacts every facet of our lives. While we have come
to know the mobile phone as a communications device, their role
in our daily lives has been expanding. From checking emails,
paying for tickets, sending money transfers, taking pictures of
your kids, watching soccer World Cup live, checking commodity
pricing, to emergency response to mHealth (mobile Health),
mobile devices have become an essential tool to help us navigate
our day.
Mobile also plays a key role in how we go about the most basic
transaction in a given day that keeps the economy humming –
spend. We discussed this and more in the paper
“How Mobile Will Change The Way We Spend”
that was released last quarter.
What to expect in the coming months?
All this has setup an absolutely fascinating 2012 in the
communication/computing industry. Convergence is everywhere and
is leading to a fundamental reset of the value chains and
ecosystems.
As usual, we will be keeping a very close eye on the micro- and
macro-trends and reporting on the market on a regular basis in
various private and public settings.
Against this backdrop, the analysis of the Q3 2011 US wireless
data market is:
Service Revenues
-
The US Wireless data service revenues grew 5% Q/Q and 21%
Y/Y to $17B in Q3 2011. The mobile data services revenues
for the US market are on track to reach $67B in 2011.
-
Verizon and AT&T had a good mobile data quarter accounting
for 62% of the increase in data revenues in Q3 2011.
-
For the quarter, AT&T and Verizon accounted for 69% of the
market data services revenues and 62% of the subscription
base.
-
Verizon maintained its #1 ranking again just edging past NTT
DoCoMo who came in at number two with $5.95B in data
revenues for the quarter. AT&T maintained its #3 position
with $5.6B in data revenues. Sprint and T-Mobile maintained
their #6 and #8 rank in the top 10 mobile data operators
list for Q3 2011.
ARPU
-
The Overall ARPU increased by $0.31. Average voice ARPU
declined by $0.49 while the average data ARPU grew by $0.80
or 4% Q/Q.
-
The average industry percentage contribution of data to
overall ARPU was 37.6% in Q3 2011 and is likely to exceed
40% by Q1 2012. As expected, Verizon became the first US
operator to eclipse the 40% mark with AT&T and Sprint close
behind. (for reference, all three major Japanese operators
are now above the 50% mark).
-
The top three operators were neck-and-neck in data ARPU each
recording a 39%+ performance. T-Mobile ended the quarter
exceeding the 30% mark for the first time.
-
We expect data revenues to exceed voice revenues in the US
market in early 2013.
Subscribers
-
Helped by the growth in connected devices, the overall
net-adds increased by 4.9M with Verizon accounting for
almost 50% of the growth.
-
For the eight straight quarter, AT&T reported more net-adds
from connected devices than postpaid subs. AT&T now accounts
for 43% of connected devices in the US (w/ cellular
subscription of some sort).
-
Overall, AT&T has 43% of the connected device share of the
market. The connected device segment growth slowed down to
8% Q/Q and is still up 32% Y/Y.
-
Sprint added more than a million subscriptions while
T-Mobile added 126k.
Applications and Services
-
After unseating Philippines as the king of TXT messaging
last quarter, US TXT messaging continues to grow albeit at a
slower pace. Philippines is seeing a sharp decline in per
user messaging due to IP messaging. Some of the European
operators are also experiencing the pain of declining SMS
usage. As expected, this transition will continue around the
world at different rates. In the US, while the change is
underway, we don’t expect any dramatic declines like the
Philippines market in the near-term.
-
The market is finally starting to see activity in the mobile
commerce and payment services as well as in various industry
verticals like healthcare, retail, and education.
-
Q3 2011 again saw tremendous activity in the mobile commerce
and payments space with lot of announcements from the
operators, Internet players, and startups as well as the
retailers and the ecommerce players. All are vying for a
piece of the mobile wallet. Much more to come in the next 12
months.
Handsets
-
Smartphones continued to be sold at a brisk pace accounting
for 57% of the devices sold in Q3 2011. Operators are
averaging 70% of their postpaid sales as smartphones with
Android dominating though iPhone leads in revenue and
mindshare.
-
Nokia’s position in the market improved slightly with the
launch of WP7 devices. While it is fairly clear that Windows
will acquire the #3 spot behind iOS and Android, the journey
to a substantial and competitive market share is still ways
off.
-
As predicted in the last update, Samsung overtook Apple in
smartphone sales and is unlikely to relinquish the title
despite a blockbuster iPhone 4S launch in Q4.
-
37% of all smartphones sold globally in Q3 were sold in the
US making it the most attractive market for the OEMs.
-
Smartphones now account for over 80% revenue of all phones
sold in the US.
-
In the vertical vs. horizontal platform battle, the
ecosystem is shifting towards horizontal domination in the
near-term (units sold) while a majority of the profits
reside in the vertical column.
-
87% of the tablets use WiFi only (some have inactivated
cellular chipset) meaning the operator channel is not a
necessary distribution channel. Operators who start to
bundle multiple devices by single data plans and data
buckets are going to see a better yield in this category.
As expected, Verizon announced family data plans for 2012.
Other operators will quickly follow or may even preempt
Verizon.
-
Verizon added another 1.4M LTE subscribers making it the
leading LTE operator in the world. AT&T’s LTE plans are
gathering steam and Sprint plans to offer LTE in 2012.
-
iPhone finally arrived at Sprint. Sales of iPhone 4S have
been brisk which is likely to make it the top selling device
for the most important quarter of the year.
Mobile Data Growth
-
While the spectrum debate rages on, in addition to the
network and backhaul upgrades, policy management and data
offload have emerged as top two solutions that operators
deploying around the world. Signaling management solutions
like Diameter routing are also getting good traction.
However, a long-term video solution is still elusive. As we
have been saying in our Yottabyte series of research papers,
a comprehensive solution strategy is needed to effectively
manage margins/bit.
-
We will have the 3rd edition of our
“Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era”
research out early next year.
Global Update
-
Race to a billion – India’s net-addition rate declined
significantly in Q3 2011 while China kept its current pace.
We expect that China will be the first country to exceed 1
Billion subscriptions by mid-2012. For India, the event will
now occur in 2013.
-
For more details, please see our
Global Mobile Wireless Market Update
released in July 2011.
Mobile Future Forward
Our annual mobile thought-leadership summit - Mobile Future
Forward was a grand success. Our thanks to all those who
attended as well as to the speakers, sponsors, and well-wishers
for making it happen. Planning for 2012 summit are underway and
we will keep you posted as plans develop.
More information at
http://www.mobilefutureforward.com
Mobile Predictions Survey 2012
As is the tradition, we are running our
annual
Mobile Predictions Survey for 2012. Will appreciate your input
in understanding the trends and news stories that will make 2012
another big year in mobile. Winners of the survey get our
fabulous limited edition
Mobile Future Forward 2011 book
that contains 19 essays from the global leaders in the mobile
industry. (Mobile
Predictions Survey Results for 2011 here)
Your feedback is always welcome.
Thanks.
Chetan Sharma
We will be keeping a close eye on the trends in the wireless
data sector in our blog, twitter
feeds, future
research reports,
and articles.
The next US Wireless Data Market update will be released in Feb
2012. The next Global Wireless Data Market update will be issued
in Apr 2012.
Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this paper are
our clients.
