Answers to the Wireless Industry's 3G Dilemma

Step One: Europe's regulators must relax licensing terms, let operators chart their own technology courses

November 20, 2002 - Chesterfield, Missouri - Operators that paid too much for 3G licenses, technology that won't be ready for at least three years, and skeptical investors add up to a losing proposition. But winning solutions are available. That is one of the main conclusions of the new 60-page report UMTS at the Crossroads: Strategies for Success, released today by Datacomm Research Company.

"Europe's UMTS operators are scaling back construction plans and delaying commercial launches left and right," said Chetan Sharma, co-author of the report along with Sunil Jain. "It's time to give operators the tools they need to compete in the changing global market," he concluded.

"This report presents realistic solutions for building the 3G wireless business -- from a cohesive strategy using GPRS, EDGE, and public wireless LANs to GSM1x to allowing dual use of UMTS spectrum," said Ira Brodsky, President of Datacomm Research. "Unless a new approach is taken, the strategies of GSM operators in Europe and Asia will start to diverge," he concluded.

UMTS at the Crossroads: Strategies for Success is a report for government policy makers and vendor business strategists. It includes an Executive Summary identifying the best strategies for moving forward. The report examines the events leading up to the current situation, 3G progress in Asia, the challenges confronting UMTS, and the best technology and business alternatives.

Chetan Sharma and Sunil Jain are principals with SapereMobile, a consultancy assisting clients in the wireless and mobile communications sector with technical due diligence, market research, and business strategy. More information is available at www.saperemobile.com.

Datacomm Research Company is a leader in tracking, analyzing, and forecasting emerging high tech markets. Other Datacomm reports include Public Wireless LANs, Third Generation Wireless, and Voice of the Internet.

UMTS at the Crossroads: Strategies for Success is one of Datacomm Research's family of CompetitiveEdge™ reports and is available for $995.00 (electronic version). The price includes one hour of follow-on consultation. A printed version of the report is available for an additional $200 (includes shipping via express courier anywhere in the world). Orders may be faxed to (314) 514-9793, phoned to (314) 514-9750, or mailed to Datacomm Research Company, 14318 Millbriar Circle, Chesterfield, Missouri 63017. The report may also be ordered online at the firm's (secure) Web site, www.datacommresearch.com. Visa, MasterCard, and American Express accepted.

Additional conclusions found in UMTS at the Crossroads: Strategies for Success:

1. Europe's UMTS operators face serious challenges. Many can't afford to build nationwide networks in the 2.1 GHz band. Dual-mode handsets (W-CDMA/GSM) will take time to perfect. W-CDMA is more likely to succeed in Japan, where NTT DoCoMo is building a nationwide network that doesn't require dual-mode handsets.

2. Europe's regulators must give operators more time and flexibility. All reasonable options should be considered including infrastructure sharing, spectrum swapping, disaggregation of spectrum for resale or leasing, and alternative technologies.

3. Prospects for GSM1x, the CDMA2000 overlay for GSM, are particularly good in Asia where some operators own both GSM and CDMA2000 networks. GSM1x enables GSM operators to upgrade to 3G in existing spectrum, and allows combining dual networks to reduce operating costs and provide users a best-of-both-worlds solution.

4. Customer uptake of wireless data services will fall short of near-term return on investment (ROI) goals. 3G operators must offer competitively priced voice services. Thus, 2G operators upgrading to 3G are better positioned than are "green field" UMTS operators. The report explains how UMTS operators can transform this weakness into strength.

5. CDMA2000 will capture the majority of 3G subscribers for at least the next three years. Some 2G operators, particularly in Asia, will be forced to reevaluate their 3G strategies. CDMA450, a CDMA2000 solution for the 450 MHz band, is particularly attractive to operators in Russia, Eastern Europe, and Africa.