CHETAN SHARMA
 
Technology & Strategy Consulting
  UMTS at the Crossroads: Strategies for Success

 

  
 

Europe's UMTS operators were expected to lead the way to 3G services. Instead, they have been plagued by equipment delays, debt (much of it from spectrum auctions), and a sour investment climate. The authors of this report believe these are serious challenges that must be confronted with new thinking. This report lays out a series of steps to be taken by regulatory agencies, manufacturers, and operators to get the 3G ship back on course. A must read for wireless industry business planners and strategists. 

Published Q4, 2002. 60 pages. 20 tables and figures. Press Release

Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
     1.1 The current situation
     1.2 Recommendations
     1.3 Key Conclusions

2. INTRODUCTION

3. THE CURRENT SITUATION

4. THIRD GENERATION PROGRESS
     4.1 Asia
     4.2 Europe
     4.3 The Americas

5. UMTS CHALLENGES
     5.1 Network/handset interoperability
     5.2 Handset cost
     5.3 Poor battery life
     5.4 Evolving standard
     5.5 Complexity
     5.6 Capex/opex issues for operators/vendors
     5.7 Marketing high-speed data
     5.8 W-CDMA losing ground to CDMA2000
     5.9 Lack of new applications
     5.10 Competing technologies

6. ECONOMICS OF 3G

7. HOW DID WE GET HERE?
     7.1 Spectrum licensing
     7.2 Technology evolution cycles
     7.3 GSM to IMT-2000
     7.4 Realistic forecasts
     7.5 Evaluation of strategic alternatives

8. RELAXING UMTS OBLIGATIONS
     8.1 Infrastructure sharing
     8.2 Air interface choice
     8.3 Transfer of licenses
     8.4 Spectrum trading
     8.5 Relaxation of payment terms
     8.6 Refund deposits and/or restructure payments

9. GSM1X
     9.1 GSM1x technology
     9.2 Continued evolution
     9.3 GSM1x cost and schedule
     9.4 Vendor support
     9.5 Risks

10. EDGE
     10.1 Technology
     10.2 Benefits
     10.3 Cost and schedules
     10.4 Vendor support
     10.5 Risks

11. INTEGRATION WITH WIRELESS LANS
     11.1 Technology
     11.2 Benefits
     11.3 Costs and schedules
     11.4 Vendor support
     11.5 Risks

12. ALTERNATE TECHNOLOGIES
     12.1 Flarion and ArrayComm
     12.2 Risks
     12.3 Vendor Support

13. IS CONSOLIDATION THE ANSWER?

14. LESSONS FROM ASIA
     14.1 No single killer app
     14.2 Color helps
     14.3 Technology is important, but business fundamentals are more important
Tables & Figures 
Table 1. 3G status in Asia
Table 2. Status of Europe's 3G license Holders
Table 3. Launch status of Europe's 3G operators
Figure 1. Comparison of baseband processing requirements for GSM, GPRS, W-CDMA
Table 4. CAPEX expectations for select carriers
Figure 2. W-CDMA CAPEX forecast
Figure 3. Average Cost of 3G License/Pop: a) Beauty Contest b) Auction
Figure 4. Technology adoption cycles
Figure 5. W-CDMA handset forecast by region
Table 5. Coverage obligations for European operators
Figure 6. GSM1x Network Architecture
Figure 7. GSM1x Roaming Scenarios
Table 6. GSM1x Schedule
Table 7. GPRS and EDGE: A comparison of technical data
Figure 8. Cumulative RAN CAPEX for two rollout scenarios
Figure 9. Cumulative cash flow for the two scenarios in millions of euro
Figure 10. ARPU Contribution for KT Freetel (Korea)
 
 

 

  
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