Dear friends,
I hope you had a fantastic New Year’s celebration surrounded by family and friends.
2025 proved to be another remarkable year. There are now two companies with market caps over $4 Trillion, five with over $2 Trillion, and ten with over $1 Trillion, which is a remarkable run for the stock market. GenAI kept on powering the hopes and expectations of the tech industry every quarter and remains central to the conversations going into the new year. Wars are still raging; geopolitical tensions continue to rile societies and markets. The world continues to take the tumult and devastation in stride, moving on from one crisis to another, but the only constant was technological progress and endurance.
As many readers know, we do our annual survey (now in its 19th year) to engage our knowledgeable community on trends and events to keep us informed. The composite view gives a glimpse into the future scenarios. Executives, developers, and insiders from leading mobile companies and startups from across the value chain and from around the globe participated to educate us on what to expect in 2026. The survey draws on the unique collective wisdom of the folks making it happen. Thanks for being part of our annual ritual.
On the tech front, we saw significant acceleration across several domains, something we have discussed in our research and at our summits.
As we mentioned before, we have entered the Quantumverse, and the tech industry is growing beyond its traditional borders to transform every industry and, by extension, global GDP. The proof is in the numbers.
2025 was the year when advanced markets began transitioning from 5G to 5GA. Three markets define the global landscape – China, the US, and India. FWA kept on shaking the US market with cable companies on the receiving end. Conversations about 6G stepped up worldwide, with governments actively positioning their nations to shape how 6G (and AI) will shape competitiveness and national infrastructure. It is already on the national agendas of major economies – the US, China, and India. Will Europe wake up from its slumber?
5G is growing at 2x the rate of LTE, with China, India, the US, and Japan setting the pace of global rollouts. The opportunities at the intersection of Connected Intelligence, Vertical Industries, and emerging technologies such as 5G, AI, Edge Computing, Private Networks, NTN, etc., are likely to unleash a decade-long innovation cycle.
We continue to make sense of the complexity and the potential of the Quantumverse in 2026. “Transcendence” was the central theme of brainstorming amongst the executives at 2025 Mobile Future Forward, and we are likely to see the winners continue to focus on leveraging evolving technical capabilities to gain an edge in an increasingly complex ecosystem that demands finesse in understanding and execution.
Despite the excellent opportunities, there are dark clouds on the horizon – global economic downturns, wars, trade skirmishes, and regional conflicts can adversely impact the trajectory. True sustainability remains a challenge for the tech industry, with climate-related incidents rising at a similar pace to the rise of GenAI bots. There are many unanswered questions about the multi-dimensional tech industry.
2026 is going to be a pivotal year for the world in more ways than one.
The biggest stories of 2025 were the AI bubble talk, 5G to 6G transition, AI Supercycle, tech layoffs, space race, US-China tech tussles, Nvidia’s domination, recession fears, GenAI growth velocity, Cybersecurity disruptions, Humanoids, Quantum computing, and more.
For 2026, it is no surprise that AI will continue to dominate our attention on multiple fronts – the sheer pace of progress and its integration into workflows, efforts to regulate AI, geopolitics, elections, etc. The work around AI-RAN, Agentic AI, to the resolution of the AI Bubble talk and AI Regulation will define the coming year. In the US, it is a critical year before the midterms when things tend to go haywire. Companies will try to get their favorite regulation in before Nov. On the global level, AI is likely to affect a nation’s competitiveness, employment, and the performance of domestic industries. If the policies are not aligned, industries are likely to fall behind, possibly irreversibly.
Automation is coming (in some segments, it is already here), and it will impact jobs, but societies are largely unprepared for the disruption it will cause. There is already a lot of chatter about 6G – these will grow louder as the year progresses. The EU is likely to continue its strategy of regulating US technology companies to compensate for its lackluster tech economy. Startups are driving new experiences. Computing has entered the Renaissance era. Most of the pieces of the Quantumverse are coming together.
We are settling on our perceptions of which trends are here to stay, and which ones are showing signs of reversal. Alphabet has emerged as the strongest AI company in 2025. Regulators have primarily taken the year off, so not much is expected on the antitrust front. NVIDIA is slated for the biggest acquisition of the year (Groq was an obvious one; it took just a bit longer than anticipated but still got it for real cheap). Many in the ecosystem have settled on the notion that China has edged out the US in the 5G race, and now all eyes are on 6G. The probability of the splinternet will increase in the coming year.
The 2026 survey delved deeper this year to understand the progression of 5G/6G, GenAI/Applied AI, and automation.
Artificial Intelligence stands as the central, dominant force shaping the 2026 mobile landscape. The “GenAI tsunami” that characterized 2024 is predicted to accelerate, becoming the focal point of innovation, investment, and market disruption. No other technology is expected to have a more profound impact on business models, competitive dynamics, and the very structure of the mobile ecosystem.
As we go into 2026, there are new questions to ponder over – How will GenAI be integrated and optimized across networks, nodes, devices, workflows, services, and data centers? Are we capable of resolving the thorny issues of ethics, policy, copyright, and transparency? How will nations work on AI diffusion? Will explainability become central to design, or will we hallucinate our way through it? Will mobile operators move beyond the obvious into enterprise solutions to monetize 5G? Will regulatory frameworks get a reboot? Will US get a workable industrial policy? As you know, we have been exploring all these concepts under the umbrella of “Connected Intelligence.” More to come in the new year.
Mobile Company of the Year: T-Mobile was voted the company of the year for its success and competitive position in the industry. T-Mobile shot past the $300B market cap, becoming the first US telco to do so. The value has declined since its peak, but it still maintains its strong position in the global market. NVIDIA, Starlink, China Mobile, and OpenAI rounded out the top 5. Startups are expected to have the honors for 2026.
Tech Person of the Year: If there is one company that the tech industry agrees is in an unparalleled position of power, it’s Nvidia. The survey results paint a picture of overwhelming and sustained dominance that extends across multiple facets of the industry.
The company’s CEO and Founder, Jensen Huang, was the “crowd favorite for our tech person of the year” by a significant margin for the second year in a row. Expectations for its future match this respect for its leadership. The single top prediction for 2026 is that “Nvidia’s dominance of AI will continue.” As if that weren’t enough, insiders also predict that Nvidia is the company most likely to “Make the biggest acquisition in 2026.” (or maybe the insiders were talking about Christmas 2025) This isn’t just a story about a successful chipmaker; it signifies a massive power consolidation where a single entity has become the undisputed “kingmaker of the AI-led tech ecosystem.”
The view from inside the tech industry is one of pragmatic evolution and radical disruption. The path forward is not always what the headlines suggest. The insights from the 2026 Mobile Industry Predictions Survey reveal a focus on the practical realities of AI monetization, the surprising yet powerful wins of 5G in established markets, and the consolidation of power around new kingmakers such as Nvidia. At the same time, new frontiers are opening in space communications and autonomous AI that promise to reshape the competitive landscape entirely.
Other executives of note were Sam Altman, Mike Sievert, and Elon Musk with Sundar Pichai expected to take the honors for 2026.
The opportunities at the intersection of Connected Intelligence, Vertical Industries, and emerging technologies such as 5G, AI, Edge Computing, Private Networks, NTN, etc., are likely to influence a decade-long innovation cycle.
Which of these predictions do you believe will most profoundly reshape our world by 2026?
As we embark on 2026, we extend our heartfelt wishes for your continued success throughout the year.
Thanks,
Chetan Sharma
The questions of the survey were:
- What were the biggest mobile stories in 2025?
2. What will be the biggest mobile stories of 2026?
3. Who are the top 4 important players in the mobile ecosystem?
4. What will be the breakthrough categories in mobile in 2026?
5. What trends are permanent or temporary?
6. Which technology will make the biggest leap in the next two years?
7. Biggest challenge for tech companies in 2026?
8. Which of the following statements best reflects your perspective on the AI?
9. Which industries will be shaped/disrupted the most by AI?
10. Most successful AI company that will shape the next 2-3 years?
11. How far are we from AGI?
12. What is likely to happen in 2026 (Telco and AI)?
13. Which country will lead in AI?
14. Which operator will lead in AI ?
15. Who will make the biggest acquisition in 2026?
16. Regulators are likely to pursue Breakup for which of these companies?
17. Which category will generate the most mobile data revenue in 2026?
18. The company bringing the most successful mobile gadget of the year – 2025 and 2026
19. Mobile company of the year – 2025 and 2026?
20. What’s the most convincing use case for 5G?
21. Shall we 6G?
22. What’s the most convincing use case for 6G?
23. Who is doing the most interesting work in the 5G space?
24. What aspects of 5G are going to generate the most revenue?
25. What 5G applications and services will get the most traction?
26. Who is winning the 5G Technology transition?
27. Which region will end up leading the world in 6G by 2030?
28. Automation and Digitization of industries will lead to?
29. Which of the following are likely to happen in 2026?
30. What category will be impacted the most by mobile in the next 5 years?
31. Which segments are likely to get disintermediated the most by AI and algorithms in the next 5 years?
32. Who was and will be the tech person of the year?
