Opportunities and Challenges

Opportunities and Challenges

Earlier this week, I gave a luncheon keynote at the Northwest Wireless Association – a WA state organization representing interests of the local ecosystem. Amongst other things, I talked about the opportunity areas and things that are challenging for the industry. Here is the list.

  • ¨Mobile User Interface and Visualization
  • UI, Multimodal, Projection
  • ¨Mobile Payments
  • ¨Convergence
    • IMS, SIP
    • Outdoor-Indoor
  • ¨Mobile Advertising
  • ¨Connected-Home
  • ¨Security on device, Biometrics
  • ¨User Generated Content and Social Community
  • ¨Network Testing
  • ¨Enterprise applications
    • Mobile Device Management
  • ¨Battery, Fuel Cells
  • ¨Mobile Agents
  • Essentially, Device becomes the remote control of our lives

    Challenges for companies, especially startups

    • ¨Closed Gardens
    • Carriers control the mobile data value chain
    • Starting to break – iPhone, Android, 700 MHz, WiMAX
  • ¨Fragmentation
    • Too much fragmentation at multiple levels
    • Countries
    • Carriers
    • Devices
    • Applications
  • ¨Noise
  • ¨Time-to-market
  • ¨Reaching Scale
  • ¨Attacking Global Markets
  • There is a myth percolating in the US industry that there is no growth left as we are approaching 85% subscriber penetration. Last year, we added almost 21 million new subscriptions. Though it dropped 7% from 2006, 21 million ain’t bad. Subscribers will continue to grow as cellular gets embedded in consumer electronics and consumers start owning multiple radios and we will continue to do 15-20M/year for the next few years. Also, the replacement market is very strong and people are replacing handsets at a much faster pace now given the onslaught of smartphones.

    More on the US market in the US Q407 and 2007 update coming up next week.