NY Times in its editorial this weekend compared Microsoft to Kodak implying its days are numbered.
Technology upends companies in different ways. It allows new firms to deliver better products and services in a more efficient way; it also creates new goods and services for consumers to want. Eastman Kodak, the fifth-biggest company in the S.& P. 500 in 1975, was almost destroyed by digital cameras and is no longer in the index. General Motors, fifth biggest in 1985, was hobbled by rivals that could make more fuel efficient cars. Microsoft still rules the PC desktop. But that will matter less and less as users migrate to tablets and more computing takes place in “the cloud.â€
There is no doubt that Microsoft has had missteps esp. in the mobile space over the last 4-5 years but calling them a one-trick pony is taking the argument too far. Apple has clearly taken away the mantle of the technology leader in the mobile space but Microsoft is still very strong in the enterprise and its Xbox team is doing really well. While Bing is behind, the mobile Bing team has done some really good work. It has multiple businesses that are doing well giving it enough runway for the foreseeable future but the market won’t wait forever. It’s big bank balance will also help it compete.
Kodak was completely unprepared for the digital world and didn’t have many product lines to offset the losses. Microsoft is different, there are units that are doing cutting edge work and there are others like “online†which are bleeding money. However, as many players in the industry with long memories will tell you – you never count Microsoft out.