Mark is out with his top 10 predictions for 2008. Mobile related ones are:
1. The Users Revolt. As advertisers focus in on social networking sites, users revolt against this trend, and power shifts in the worlds of Social Networking from owner to user, on issues ranging from Second Life rules and Facebook privacy to Cellphone Billing. Users will gain new leverage.
As Facebook fades with its Beacon Blunder, people realize their private/public spaces are for proactive networking, not advertising and privacy invasion. Social networking sites become the hub of all applications; rules tighten. New sites show increased privacy protection, smaller numbers, and tighter segmentation.
2. The Phone and Web Worlds Will Merge. Or: Walled Gardens Get RoundUpped. Net Neutrality will prevail; carrier and ISP garden walls will fall. Box guys will win over Pipes guys. Handheld makers will win over carriers, a la Apple and Nokia. Samsung, Microsoft, and Google now join them in control.
Tribes move from phones to the Web as part of this merger. Question: How do you carry your tribal affiliations around on the Web? Widgets let you put them in Facebook, but —
3. Content Has No Boundaries. Or: By Expanding, the Web Disappears. Content will be provisioned to every device, making the “Web” seem an outdated idea, like “multimedia.” As it moves onto phones and TVs, it becomes invisible. I want the service; I don’t want its history. The separation between print and Web providers becomes outdated. Everyone distributes everywhere.
Serious Segmentation of Online Ad Monies Defines the Spend Trend. Start segmenting by user age: the young are surrounded; the older are less tolerant of the din. Ad money will flow preferentially to luxury online and permission-based marketing.
8. CarryAlongPCs Become Commonplace. Small personal computers (UMPCs/micro notebooks) gain their own as a category as these new “CarryAlongs” are introduced by major players – a trend expanded by the iPhone and currently best served by the Samsung Q1.
He gives annual talk on his predictions:
Streaming video of this talk is available at:
mms://www.tapsns.com/NY_Dinner_2007_512K_Stream.wmv
The MP3 version is at: