Given the recent worldwide frenzy to get a piece of action of the Indian wireless market, it is no surprise that the heavyweights are finally taking notice of the opportunity. India added over 72M subs in 06. In our report back in May 2006, we reached two conclusions (amongst many)

We noted in our research that by end of 06, India will easily start surpassing China in net-adds (we were probably the first analyst to call that out). During the last four-five months, India has whizzed past China in net-adds. Though India’s 150 odd subs is no comparison for the massive half a billion subs in China, it is the growth opportunity that attracts investment. Another conclusion was that India will surpass US as the second biggest wireless market by 2008 (again, probably one of the first analyst to call that out explicitly). India is well on its way to make this happen next year. Though the opportunity is tremendous, there are significant challenges and risks in the market as well. The market is clearly not for the faint-hearted. Unless you are well prepared, you will chewed and thrown out of the market in no time. Even the giants realize that and have done better home work this time around (In the early days, Vodafone, and others rushed to the market and tried to change the market but retreated in haste due significant failures that had more do with management than anything else).

How India tackles and promotes rural infrastructure and service expansion will define its growth over the next two years. Communications Minister Maran has done good to the industry. Let’s see if govt can play an active part in the tremendous opportunity in opening the markets further.

We will be closely watching (and reporting).