Lessons from Bhutan July 18, 2013

Posted by chetan in : 4th Wave, Bhutan, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment

Lessons from Bhutan

When I started thinking about the Mobile 4^th Wave a few years ago, I was initially focused on the western markets as it was logical that the fourth wave will arrive in these markets first. The markets were getting saturated, the voice and messaging revenue waves were in decline, and the access revenue curves were going to be under tremendous margin pressure. The situation was going to be exacerbated by the economic doldrums in Europe as well.

However, one of the pleasant surprises was the speed with which the emerging markets were ramping up on the 4^th wave of mobile with new applications and solutions. So, it was a great honor and privilege to work with the ITU/UN on the request of Government of Bhutan to lead a project to help formulate Bhutan’s national mobile apps policy and strategy. There aren’t many nations who think about a national mobile apps strategy. Bhutan is a very young democracy with a progressive regulatory regime (BICMA). The 205 villages in 20 districts are separated by massive mountainous terrain and the most critical national infrastructure is mobile. For government-to-citizen communication, mobile forms the lifeline to remote areas beyond Thimphu, the nation’s capital. It is no surprise that in a matter of few years, the mobile penetration has reached over 75% while fixed penetration languishes below 4% (the Internet penetration is 26%).

We were tasked with identifying the top four most important application areas that will serve the Bhutanese people the most. The team was also to advice on developing a framework where such mobile applications can thrive and prosper. We met with almost all the important ministries in a short amount of time (a similar endeavor in the western world would have taken months) and quickly came to the conclusion that the areas that matter the most to Bhutan and where something tangible can be accomplished are health, finance and banking, agriculture, and emergency and disaster management. Bhutan is the only country that puts Gross National Happiness (GNH) ahead of GDP, so our mobile apps framework needed to satisfy the GNH requirements as well. The chosen application areas satisfied this key criteria for the GNH council. It also needed to fit within the national ICT roadmap

Indeed some of these areas are important to other emerging markets as well and disciplines of health and emergency are important to any nation. In fact, it is surprising that the governments around the world don’t have a comprehensive national mobile apps strategy for health and emergency – something that governments are responsible for. It is not overly burdensome to implement a national emergency plan that has mobile at the center of it for interacting with accurate information can help save lives.

Same goes for healthcare. In fact, Bhutan has already built a mobile based home-grown health emergency system that served the country. This is something that other nations should embrace. My colleague on the project Dr. S.K. Misra, who is a leading global expert in telemedicine having worked on several UN and WHO assignments around the world had already helped set up a telemedicine facility in Bhutan that let the doctors to consult their colleagues in India. Dr. Misra was the author of the mHealth section of the report. Sameer Sharma, Senior Advisor at the ITU based out of Bangkok, provided valuable policy guidance.

As part of the project, we produced “Bhutan Project Report on Emerging Mobile Applications Opportunity,” a report that is serving as a blueprint for the mobile application development in Bhutan. My thanks to the ITU and the Bhutanese government for making the report available last month so that other governments and groups might find it useful.

The 4^th wave is about applications, solutions, and services that can not only help create new markets and expand the existing ones to directly contribute to the global GDP. But it is also about solutions that impact day-to-day lives of billions of citizens. It is about building the apps, computing, and communications infrastructure that becomes the backbone of the nation in the new digital economy. The nations who “get” that and are able to navigate the turbulent digital waters are better positioned competitively for the next few decades.

I am heading to Hanoi next week to work with the ITU and meet with the regulators, telecom operators, and developers in South-East Asia to discuss how they should think about the 4^th wave of mobile and develop applications that become an essential part of the national commerce and support infrastructure.

We will go into much more detail on how 4^th wave is impacting the mobile and economic landscape and the opportunities that are emerging as a result at our annual mobile executive summit – Mobile Future Forward on Sept 10^th.

We will be keeping a close eye on the trends in the wireless data sector in our blog, twitter feeds, future research reports, articles, and our annual thought-leadership summit – Mobile Future Forward. The next US Wireless Data Market update will be released in August 2013. The next Global Wireless Data Market update will be issued in August 2013.

Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this research are our clients.

Mobile Future Forward Update July 12, 2013

Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a comment

Greetings,

The first half of the year is behind us and the industry is gearing up for a series of launches especially for Q4. Like a river shapes the mountains and the planet, the fourth wave is shaping the mobile ecosystem with its furious pace and uneven rapids. We are making great progress in shaping our agenda for our upcoming mobile executive summit.

Here is an update on our fall mobile executive summit – Mobile Future Forward (Sept 10^th in Seattle).

“I love that there is no fluff and that I am not hearing marketing pitches but real tech and product leader opinions” – SVP, Starbucks

“Where else can you get to the leaders in the mobile world one moment and interfacing with them in an intimate setting the next” – CEO, Rootmetrics

Registration. Summer Saver expires July 12^th (Friday).

There are two critical areas to discuss – one is ecosystem shaping by leading technologies and by leading players and the other is the solutions to the tough problems that will help our mobile industry to scale new heights.

Mobile and The Rule of Three

In my research paper “Competition and Evolution of Mobile Markets,” I looked at how Rule of Three influences the mobile market. Sprint, fresh from its Softbank M&A is looking to disrupt the US market as a stronger number three. Microsoft, fresh after its reorg is looking to provide ammunition to its pursuit as a strong third player in the mobile ecosystem. We will talk to two distinguished guests and industry veterans about how they are thinking about reshaping the mobile industry going forward.

Steve Elfman, President, Sprint

Terry Myerson, EVP, Microsoft

Opportunities in solving the biggest problems in computing and communications

At Mobile Future Forward, our focus is firmly on the future of our industry. This panel will assemble some of the leading researchers in the industry to discuss some of the biggest problems in computing and communications that need to be addressed in the next 3 - 5 years. Some are working on technologies that have the potential of fundamentally reshaping the mobile ecosystem in profound ways.

Dr. Henning Schulzrinne, CTO, FCC

Dr. Avideh Zakhor, Professor - EECS, UC Berkeley

We will provide regular updates as we add new executives to the program and continue to refine the discussion topics to give you the best learning and networking experience you can find in the mobile industry. As you know, our programs are deep in content and high on participant caliber. Each year we strive to bring together some of the leading thinkers and doers from around the world to brainstorm the future of mobile. As we like to call it – it is a mobile boot camp with the brightest brains in mobile.

We are delighted to be partnering with some of the leading players in the ecosystem: CitrixByteMobile, Ericsson, Intel, Juniper Networks, Synchronoss, and Telefonica.

Some of the outstanding group of executives who are responsible for changing the face of the industry every day will be leading the discussion. Their insights will be invaluable and actionable.

Confirmed Speakers

· Ralph de la Vega, President and CEO, AT&T Mobility

· Steve Elfman, President, Sprint

· Erik Moreno, EVP, Fox Networks

· Danny Bowman, Chief Sales and Operating Officer, Samsung

· Terry Myerson, EVP – Operating Systems, Microsoft

· Marios Zenios, VP – Uconnect, Chrysler Group

· Jef Holove, CEO, Basis

· Geeta Nayyar, Chief Medical Officer, AT&T

· Rowland Shaw, VP – Strategy, Ericsson

· Andrew Stalbow, EVP, Rovio

· Raj Toleti, President, Patient Point

· Manish Jha, GM – Mobile, NFL

· Drew Patterson, CEO, Room77

· Dr. Avideh Zakhor, Professor, UC Berkeley

.. More to come

· Stephen David, former CIO, P&G

· Glenn Lurie, President, AT&T Mobility

· Jude Buckley, President – Mobility, Best Buy

· David Small, Chief Platform Officer, Verizon Enterprise Solutions

· Marianne Marck, SVP – Consumer Facing Technology, Starbucks

· Henning Schulzrinne, CTO, FCC

· Fay Arjomandi, Global Lead, Vodafone Xone

· Biju Nair, EVP and CSO, Synchronoss

· Hank Skorny, VP/GM – Software Services, Intel

· Curtis Kopf, VP – Customer Innovation, Alaska Airlines

· Matt Carter, President – Emerging Solutions, Sprint

· Joost Schreve, VP – Mobile, Tripadvisor

The Mobile Future Forward team, our esteemed partners, our fantastic speakers and our engaged community are really looking forward to Sept 10^th.

Topic Discussions

· The 4^th wave – how will the trillions of the dollars generated be divided amongst the players?

· Mobile First to Mobile Only – How consumers and enterprises are being shaped by mobile?

· The fight for developers – Apps, APIs, and Dollars

· Will Security and Privacy get in the way of mobile growth?

· PostPC era – commerce, engagement, and consumption

· Quantified Self. Quantified Enterprise – how to benefit from big data?

· Gamification of Everything – How to reinvent business models and revenue streams

· Mobile Broadband – LTE is here and now. What’s Next?

· Mobile Competitive Policy – Balancing competitiveness, consumer interests, policy, and innovation

· nScreen Connected Consumer – Expectations, Solution roadmap, and Revenue flows

· OTT – Competition, Co-opetition, and the new landscape. Measuring the seismic shifts

· Big (Mobile) Data – Collection, Management and Use of Data

· Mobile Cloud Computing – Innovation, Competition, and Business Models

· Mobile CIO Prism – Disruption in the enterprise. Opportunities for growth and cost reductions

· Managing networking growth in the Yottabyte Era – strategies to tame signaling and data tsunamis

· Mobile Platforms and Ecosystems – The Cycles and the Eternal Debate

· Mobile Security – BYOD, Hacking, Protecting, and Monetization

· Emerging Markets, Emerging Opportunities

· Battle for the Home – Devices, Apps, Networks

· Retail channel transformation – how are we going to shop and who makes money?

I hope you will join us in what is shaping up to be an exceptional gathering of the mobile minds.

Thanks and best wishes.

Kind regards,

Chetan Sharma

Mobile Future Forward Update–Tourism and Entertainment June 28, 2013

Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a comment

Greetings,

As we turn the corner on the first half of the year, the global mobile industry has gone past $700 billion in revenues for the first six months, its highest ever for the time period. As the fourth wave of mobile shapes the various verticals, it is important to understand how mobile is impacting the global GDP.

Here is an update on our fall mobile executive summit – Mobile Future Forward (Sept 10^th in Seattle).

Previously, I had updated on the retail, health and the operator fourth wave panels we are working on. Wanted to talk about two more critical segments – Tourism and Entertainment.

Tourism and Entertainment are over $2.5 trillion dollar industries globally and are important part of the global GDP. We have some of the most disruptive companies and leading thinkers in these segments.

Tourism

Curtis Kopf, VP – Customer Innovation, Alaska Airlines

Drew Patterson, CEO, Room77

Joost Schreve, VP – Mobile, Tripadvisor

Entertainment

Erik Moreno, EVP, Fox Networks

Andrew Stalbow, EVP, Rovio Entertainment

Manish Jha, GM – Mobile, NFL

Registration. Summer Saver expires July 14^th.

We are delighted to be partnering with some of the leading players in the ecosystem: CitrixByteMobile, Ericsson, Intel, Synchronoss, and Telefonica.

Some of the outstanding group of executives who are responsible for changing the face of the industry every day will be leading the discussion. Their insights will be invaluable and actionable.

Confirmed Speakers

· Ralph de la Vega, President and CEO, AT&T Mobility

· Steve Elfman, President, Sprint

· Erik Moreno, EVP, Fox Networks

· Danny Bowman, Chief Sales and Operating Officer, Samsung

· Terry Myerson, Corporate Vice President – Windows Phone, Microsoft

· Marios Zenios, VP – Uconnect, Chrysler Group

· Jef Holove, CEO, Basis

· Geeta Nayyar, Chief Medical Officer, AT&T

· Rowland Shaw, VP – Strategy, Ericsson

· Andrew Stalbow, EVP, Rovio

· Raj Toleti, President, Patient Point

· Manish Jha, GM – Mobile, NFL

· Drew Patterson, CEO, Room77

.. More to come

· Stephen David, former CIO, P&G

· Glenn Lurie, President, AT&T Mobility

· Jude Buckley, President – Mobility, Best Buy

· David Small, Chief Platform Officer, Verizon Enterprise Solutions

· Marianne Marck, SVP – Consumer Facing Technology, Starbucks

· Henning Schulzrinne, CTO, FCC

· Fay Arjomandi, Global Lead, Vodafone Xone

· Biju Nair, EVP and CSO, Synchronoss

· Hank Skorny, VP/GM – Software Services, Intel

· Curtis Kopf, VP – Customer Innovation, Alaska Airlines

· Matt Carter, President – Emerging Solutions, Sprint

· Joost Schreve, VP – Mobile, Tripadvisor

The Mobile Future Forward team, our esteemed partners, our fantastic speakers and our engaged community are really looking forward to Sept 10^th.

I hope you will join us in what is shaping up to be an exceptional gathering of the mobile minds.

Thanks and best wishes.

Kind regards,

Chetan Sharma

Partner Event: Mobilebeat June 25, 2013

Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a comment

Our friends at Venturebeat are putting together their annual Mobilebeat summit next month. Checkout the program. Our readers get 20% off.

US Wireless Market Update Q1 2013 June 20, 2013

Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, 4th Wave, AORTA, Chetan Sharma Consulting, Connected Devices, Infrastructure Providers, Mobile Future Forward, Mobile Patents, OTT, Speaking Engagements, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment

US Wireless Market Update Q1 2013

http://chetansharma.com/usmarketupdateq12013.htm

Summary

The US mobile data market grew 2% Q/Q and 14% Y/Y to reach $21 billion in mobile data revenues. Data is now almost 45% of the US mobile industry service revenues and as we had forecasted a few years back, the cross-over point of 50% might occur later this year. For the year 2013, we are expecting $90 Billion in mobile data service revenues for the US market.

For the quarter, the market added a paltry 1.1 million new connections, a decline of 60% from Q1 2012. It was the lowest net-adds Q4 quarter in the US mobile history (barring the early days of tepid growth). The postpaid category added only 200K subs largely on the back of Verizon’s 677K net-adds.

AT&T sold more iPhones but Verizon sold more smartphones. With T-Mobile joining the iPhone bandwagon, iOS lead in the US market is likely to continue.

T-Mobile continued to lose their postpaid subs for the 11^th straight quarter. Sprint also lost over half a million postpaid subs primarily due to the Nextel business. Once Nextel is sunsetted mid-2013 for good, we can expect a pick-up of net-postpaid subs at Sprint.

The see-saw battle between Softbank and Dish for Sprint/Clearwire continued as expected but as expected Softbank is likely to prevail when it is all said and done. After completing the Metro acquisition, T-Mobile started to integrate the 8M+ base into the company. We can expect that the next round of M&A will continue once we are done with the Sprint decision.

As we mentioned in our previous updates, smartphones are now past the 50% mark in the US and continue to sell at a brisk pace accounting for almost 85% of the devices sold in Q1 2013. Apple led the smartphone sales amongst the top 4 operators with 50% share for the quarter. While the US penetration of smartphones is over 50%, the 50% of the sub base is concentrated in only 30% of the households thus leaving plenty of growth in the marketplace.

In terms of Q/Q growth, Connected Devices segment grew 17%, Wholesale 5%, Prepaid 4%, and Postpaid was flat.

Verizon and AT&T maintained their top positions in the global rankings by mobile data revenues. A survey of the entire ecosystem shows that the US companies dominate the top 5 rankings of profit share. China Mobile leads the industry with Apple, Verizon, AT&T, and NTT DoCoMo completing the rankings.

What really drives mobile device performance?

Will a 3rd mobile ecosystem emerge this year? Is it necessary? Specifically, what problem does it solve? What factors influence the purchase behavior of the consumer? And can OEMs change their strategy to impact sales? Why have Microsoft and Nokia not been able to make a dent in the trajectory despite having a compelling OS, range of devices, consumer-friendly price-points, better distribution, and increased level of advertising dollars? Will Blackberry be able to recover? Why hasn’t HTC One been able sell in similar numbers as the Galaxy S4 despite being better by most accounts? What will it take for LG to increase share? Can Motorola stay relevant? Can new entrants disrupt the waters? Can ZTE and Huawei come from the bottom and disrupt the top players? Will Apple and Samsung be able to protect their position on the top?

These questions have been a matter of intense debate in the media and in the ecosystem. We try to address these questions in some detail in our recent paper “What Really Drives Mobile Device Performance?” As I mentioned to the New York Times, it is no longer good enough to have a great product, an OEM needs to perform well across multiple variables.

The Fourth Wave and the shift towards services

It is evident that there is a subtle shift from devices/access to services/solutions. In our paper on the topic “Operator’s Dilemma (and opportunity): The Fourth Wave”, I proposed that we need a new framework to think about the next generation of revenue opportunities. The fourth curve opportunities are massive but require a different skill set and strategic approach than the past three curves. It is being widely adopted in the operator community around the world and some operators have started to break out the 4^th wave revenues in their financials.

We will be discussing fourth wave in much more detail at our annual thought-leadership summit – Mobile Future Forward with the incredible leaders who are making billion dollar decisions every day.

OTT impact on legacy businesses and models

In the last 12 months, Whatsapp moved around more messages than all the mobile operators combined in any country and that includes US and China. US and China collectively have approximately 1.5 billion subscriptions. Whatsapp with its 200M base has moved more messages in the last 12 months than all the operators in both US and China combined. Ok, let that sink in for a few minutes. For a significantly small fraction of the cost, Whatsapp moves around more messages than every single telecom operator on the planet. Of course, Whatsapp makes a tiny fraction of the revenue compared to the operators. What Whatsapp and similar players lack in ubiquity and interoperability, they make it up by being the commodity utility provider at a low cost to the consumer. The notion of designing by a standards committee above the IP layer is just no longer needed in majority of the cases. Once you have the IP connection, consumers will gravitate towards innovative solutions and be willing to fragment their communication behavior across multiple apps. SMS will stay relevant for the foreseeable future but the growth is in IP communication. We will also see more cooperation between the IP app players and the operators as they find common strategic grounds.

We will see the same impact of IP and mobility on the various verticals like Retail, Energy, Education, Entertainment, Travel, etc. Some operators have been preparing for this shift and going outside their traditional products and services to launch services like AT&T’s Digital Life to address opportunities in the home, Verizon’s efforts in health and public safety and Sprint’s steps in mobile advertising and analytics.

Operator M&A – The Rule of Three Strikes Back

The M&A game continued with intense frenzy in the ecosystem. T-Mobile completed the Metro acquisition which gives it more heft and scale to compete as a value-player. However, the real drama has been going on with the Softbank and Sprint merger with Dish playing the role of the spoiler. Our original thesis has been that Softbank is a better fit than Dish and Dish’s strategic intention might actually be T-Mobile not Sprint. It was a masterful decoy to raise the cost and pain for Softbank and Sprint. It is likely to be all sorted out in the next few weeks.

There have been some interesting twists and turns but as we have stated before, the US market competitive equilibrium will be complete when Sprint and T-Mobile get together at some point down the road. As outlined in our research paper on the subject, market forces find their way to get to 3 dominant operators that compete for attention and revenues, rest becomes noise. While the regulators might scoff at the idea, the inevitable market forces will find their way around.

Operators with better balance sheets will also look for global expansion especially in Europe where economic impact on the telcom operators has been severe, however the M&A efforts will be complicated by respective governments desire to keep control of the national infrastructure provider.

The Patent Battles

In 2012, Samsung had a strong showing not only in the market place but also in the patents area. It edged past Nokia to become the overall mobile patents leader in the industry. IBM and Microsoft also improved their rankings. Nokia, Ericsson, and Alcatel-Lucent slid in rankings. Motorola dropped out of top 10. Not surprisingly, companies who have been around for a while especially in the infrastructure and the platform space lead the overall mobile patents. Samsung has been fiercely building its patent portfolio in both Europe and the US and the efforts have paid off as it has built a significant portfolio and a formidable lead that is likely to serve it well in the coming years.

A more startling observation is the mobile patent grants as a percentage of the total patent grants in a given year have risen significantly for the US market indicating the importance innovators attach to mobile in their business. In the US, one out of every five patent granted in 2012 was related to mobile. Less than a decade ago, this number was less than 10%. The European market has seen lower growth relative to the US market. Roughly one out of every ten patents granted in Europe are mobile related.

Samsung was the leader in the mobile patents granted in 2012 in the US and that propelled the company to the top ranking in overall patents (1996-2013). Samsung was followed by IBM, Sony, Microsoft, RIM, LG, Qualcomm, Ericsson, Panasonic, Alcatel-Lucent, and Nokia for the top 10 companies by mobile patent grants in 2012. The top 5 categories for patents grants in the US for 2012 were Telecommunications, Digital Multiplexing, Digital Processing – Data Transfer, Digital Processing – Financial, and Digital Processing – Databases. The top 5 filers of mobile patents in the US were IBM, Microsoft, Samsung, Qualcomm, and Sony. Apple made it to top 10 for the first time on the strength of its patents filed in the computer graphics processing category.

For more detailed analysis, please refer our research paper on the subject – Mobile Patents Landscape – An In-Depth Quantitative Analysis.

SMB leading indicator of mobile adoption

Small businesses are at the heart of the US economic engine. They represent roughly 45% of the non-farm GDP. Every administration, every president focuses on small business growth and job creation. In our paper “The ABCs of SMB Transformation: Apps, Broadband, and the Cloud,” we explored how mobile is transforming the SMBs. The main conclusions were: a) SMB segment is a leading indicator of technology adoption and we can learn a great deal about the broader trends by understanding how SMBs adopt technology b) there are tangible gains in productivity – on average SMB workers save 40 minutes per worker per day which translates into significant impact on profits and c) there is a tangible impact on computing, enterprise software and services as the business processes are shifting towards iOS and Android.

What to expect in the coming months?

All this has setup an absolutely fascinating 2013 in the communication/computing industry. Convergence is everywhere and is leading to a fundamental reset of the value chains and ecosystems. Players who firmly attach themselves to the 4^th wave will reap benefits while the ones who miss it will see their fortunes dwindle. We are gearing up for our annual Mobile Brainstorm Summit – Mobile Future Forward on Sept 10^th, hope you can join us.

As usual, we will be keeping a very close eye on the micro- and macro-trends and reporting on the market on a regular basis in various private and public settings.

Against this backdrop, the analysis of the Q1 2013 US wireless data market is:

Service Revenues

The US Wireless data service revenues grew 2% Q/Q and 14% Y/Y to over $21B in Q1 2013 thus exceeding $20B for the second straight quarter.. For the year 2013, we are forecasting that mobile data revenues in the US market will reach $90 billion.
Verizon and AT&T dominated the quarter accounting for 70% of the mobile data services revenue and had 66% of the subscription base.
Verizon and AT&T maintained its #1 & #2 mobile data revenue ranking in Q1 2013. Sprint and T-Mobile also maintained their rankings in the top 10 global mobile operators.

ARPU

The Overall ARPU increased $0.35. Average voice ARPU declined by $0.42 while the average data ARPU grew by $0.87 or 3% Q/Q.
The average industry percentage contribution of data to overall ARPU is now at the 45% mark in Q1 2013 and is likely to exceed the 50% in 2013. All the top three US operators are over the 45% mark. (For reference, all three major Japanese operators are now over the 65% mark).

Subscribers

The US operators added 200K postpaid subs and approximately 1.2M total.
T-Mobile’s postpaid woes continued for the 11th straight quarter.
Verizon led the market with 720K net-adds. It was followed by AT&T at 291K, and T-Mobile at 5K. Verizon and AT&T accounted for 86% of the market’s net-adds Nextel continues to drag Sprint’s postpaid additions. Sprint is expecting the transition from Nextel to Sprint to be complete in the next few months.
AT&T continued to lead the connected device segment with 48% market share.

Shared Data Plans

Shared data plans launched by Verizon and AT&T saw positive results. The tablet and other device attachment rate has gone up by 60%.
Shared data plans moved tablet session based consumers to postpaid tablet plans with more predictable revenue stream. The $10 surcharge for every device is still an inhibitor for many consumers. Over time, we expect this fee to go away to bring in many more consumers experience data services across devices other than their smartphones.

Applications and Services

The market is seeing a lot of activity in the mobile commerce and payment services as well as in various industry verticals like healthcare, retail, and education. We will be discussing how mobile is changing all the vertical industries at our fall summit Mobile Future Forward where industry leaders in each of these vertical segments will convene to share their experiences and expectations.
The cloud and security segments have also gained significant traction with incumbents as well as startups launching new initiatives and technologies.

OTT and the impact on legacy services

In the last 12 months, Whatsapp has moved around more messages than all the mobile operators in the US and China combined. Those of you who have read our Fourth Wave paper shouldn’t be surprised by this shift.

Handsets

Smartphones continued to be sold at a brisk pace accounting to almost 85% of the devices sold in Q1 2013.
iPhone dominated smartphone sales for Q1 2013. In Q1, iPhone accounted for 50% of the total smartphone sales at the top four operators.
At the end of Q1 2013, Samsung continued its lead in unit sale category both on the world stage as well as in the US. However, profits are a different equation where Apple overshadows its rivals like Gulliver on the Lilliput land.
While it is fairly clear that Windows will acquire the #3 spot behind iOS and Android, the journey to a substantial and competitive market share is still ways off. It renewed its entry into the battlefield with Windows phone last year but sales have been poor. In Q1 2013, Windows device sales were less than 0.5 million despite heavy marketing (read our paper to get more insights into why Windows hasn’t been able to make a dent so far).
Apple finally launched its iOS 7 update with the hardware unit to be launched later this year.
Verizon continues to sell more LTE smartphones as its LTE sub tally rose to 27.5M making it the leading LTE operator in the world. AT&T’s and Sprint’s LTE rollouts are gathering steam. T-Mobile is also ramping up its LTE deployment. Expect the “fastest network” marketing to continue for at least another seven quarters. Verizon reported that 50% of its total data traffic is on the LTE network now.
There is always a beauty contest amongst operators as to who sold more iPhones. AT&T again bested its rivals by selling roughly 47% of the iPhones in the US.

Mobile Data Growth

The smartphone data consumption at some operators is averaging over 1 GB/mo. Some devices are averaging close to 2-3 GB/mo. As we move into 1GB range along with the family data plans kicking in, you can expect the data tiers to get bigger both in GBs and dollar amount.
While the spectrum debate rages on, in addition to the network and backhaul upgrades, policy management and data offload have emerged as top two solutions that operators deploying around the world. Signaling management solutions like Diameter routing are also getting good traction. However, a long-term video solution is still elusive. As we have been saying in our Yottabyte series of research papers, a comprehensive solution strategy is needed to effectively manage margins/bit.

Your feedback is always welcome.

Chetan Sharma

We will be discussing a number of issues raised in this research update at our annual mobile executive thought-leadership summit – Mobile Future Forward on Sept 10th in Seattle. Thought-leaders include: Biju Nair, EVP and CSO, Synchronoss; Curtis Kopf, VP – Customer Innovation, Alaska Airlines; Danny Bowman, Chief Sales and Operating Officer, Samsung; David Small, Chief Platform Officer, Verizon Enterprise Solutions; Erik Moreno, EVP, Fox Networks; Fay Arjomandi, CEO - Vodafone Xone, President/Chairman – Vodafone Americas Foundation; Geeta Nayyar, Chief Medical Information Officer, AT&T; Glenn Lurie, President, AT&T Wireless; Hank Skorny, VP and GM – Software Services, Intel; Henning Schulzrinne, CTO, FCC; Jef Holove, CEO, Basis; Jude Buckley, President – Mobility, Best Buy Co; Kevin Packingham, Chief Product Officer, Samsung; Manish Jha, GM – Mobile, NFL; Marianne Marck, SVP – Consumer Products, Starbucks; Marios Zenios, VP – Uconnect, Chrysler Group; Matt Carter, President – Emerging Solutions, Sprint; Raj Toleti, CTO, Patient Point; Ralph de la Vega, CEO, AT&T Wireless; Rowland Shaw, VP - Strategy, Ericsson; Stephen David, former CIO, P&G; Steve Elfman, President, Sprint; Terry Myerson, Corporate Vice President – Mobile, Microsoft; Tracy Isacke, Head, Telefonica Digital Americas

Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this research are our clients.

Mobile Future Forward 2013 – Speaker Update June 14, 2013

Posted by chetan in : Fourth Wave, Mobile Future Forward , add a comment

Hope you are enjoying the last days of spring. Here is an update on our fall mobile executive summit – Mobile Future Forward (Sept 10^th in Seattle).

One of the critical segments that the fourth wave of mobile is shaping is that of the operators. Many of the leading operators are investing heavily and are becoming strong digital contenders in the ecosystem. We are assembling what is arguably the best panel ever put together on the subject.

Senior executives from world’s top 5 operators (AT&T, Sprint, Telefonica, Verizon, and Vodafone) are coming together to discuss how they are building their portfolio of digital services. Combined they represent over $350 Billion in mobile revenues, $100 Billion in mobile data revenues, $0.5 Trillion in marketcap, and $15 Billion in mobile digital revenues. Their insights are going to be invaluable.

Glenn Lurie, President, AT&T Mobility

Fay Arjomandi, CEO – Vodafone Xone, President/Chairman – Vodafone Americas Foundation

Steve Elfman, President, Sprint

David Small, Chief Platform Officer, Verizon Enterprise Solutions

Registration. Early bird expires June 14^th (Friday).

We are delighted to be partnering with some of the leading players in the ecosystem: CitrixByteMobile, Ericsson, Intel, Synchronoss, and Telefonica.

Some of the outstanding group of executives who are responsible for changing the face of the industry every day will be leading the discussion. Their insights will be invaluable and actionable.

Hope you can join us.

Mobile Breakfast Series Recap – Mobile Platforms and the future of HTML5 June 12, 2013

Posted by chetan in : 4th Wave, Chetan Sharma Consulting, HTML5, Mobile Breakfast Series, Mobile Future Forward, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment

We hosted our 15th Mobile Breakfast Series event yesterday. The topic was – Is HTML5 Really Disruptive?

HTML5 has been talked about for a long time as the most disruptive force for mobile applications since the Apple Appstore was launched 5 years ago. But, can it really change the industry dynamics? How do you solve the reach problem for the developers? Many interesting initiatives in 2013 like Firefox OS but will they make a difference? How do developers view HTML5?

The platform wars are not new, they have been around since computing evolved. The discussion and debate just morphs into the flavor of the day. In the recent past, smartphones and tablets have redefined computing as we know it. The vitality and strength of any ecosystem is determined by the number of app developers developing for a platform and actively monetizing. Right now there are only two sheriffs in town – for units it is Android and for revenue it is iOS. Others play on the fringes. HTML5 has been in the discussion for a while and whether it can stand on its own as a platform has been a matter of great debate amongst the participants of the trade. As usual, we had an outstanding line of speakers which over a 100 years in combined experience in the mobile space, which is just phenomenal. These guys have worked with all the major computing and device companies so the depth of understanding of real issues, challenges, and opportunity really showed. The panelists were:

Hank Skorny – VP/GM – Software Services, Intel. Hank is a veteran of the platform industry with successful stints at Apple, AOL Mobile, Microsoft, Adobe, Infospace Mobile, and now with Intel. He recently acquired Mashery and Aepona to beef up the Open API initiative for enterprises, operators, and developers.

Jeff Warren – VP – Mobile and Online Partner Marketing, Expedia. Jeff previously worked at Motorola and his team has been doing some great work in mobile at Expedia, a real example of how companies are adapting to the 4th wave that I have been talking about.

Asokan Ashok – Director – Content and Services, Samsung. Ashok has worked for Motorola, Nokia, Ericsson, HP, and now with Samsung. You can say, he knows a thing or two about devices.

Sundeep Peechu – Partner, Felicis Ventures. Remember Rovio or rather Angry Birds. Well, he was one of the early believers and investors when it was not fashionable to invest in apps. Now it is a multi-billion dollar industry. Felicis itself is fairly impressive. Just in 6-7 years, they have made 100+ investment with 46 exits.

I kicked off the discussion with an animation of how the market shares have changed in the smartphone space since 2004 from Symbian, Windows and Blackberry to iOS and Android. We do seem to go in cycles. Are we on the tip of another cycle?

Source: © Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2013

Not a complete change but Hank made the case for HTML5 and articulate a well reasoned thesis that HTML5 is not going to be disruptive because it is the web but rather due the economic reasons. Companies are just running out of people they can hire to build apps and HTML5 provides a solution with more trained staff and cheaper cost of development.

Source: © Hank Skorny, Intel, 2013

Below is the summary of the discussion:

HTML5 needs a champion

One of the big themes that emerged from the discussion was that like for any platform and its success over time, HTML5 needs a strong advocate and a champion who can move the industry forward.
While Mozilla has been making tremendous strides with FireFox OS, HTML5 ecosystem will benefit from a senior statesman taking the stage and the most natural candidate is Google as they have the most to win.
Apple can easily pivot if the need be but is unlikely to push HTML5.
Microsoft has a unique opportunity to become HTML5’s biggest cheerleader. In fact, without a strong HTML5 strategy, Windows might not reach its full potential and continue to struggle.
EA is moving 80% of their games to HTML5 by 2015.
OEMs should become champions of HTML5 and Open APIs to make their devices stand out and become and important control point in the value chain.
Panelists didn’t think operators have much role to play irrespective of what happens with HTML5 as they are just slow on working together and have missed out on several opportunities like location, billing, identity and while they can play an important role, they just don’t move fast enough to make an impact (there are exceptions of course).
Expedia sees 50% of spend on mobile web (vs native) so HTML5 stands a great chance to further its role in the app economy.

Is it the economics, stupid?

Developers are still going iOS first and Android second as monetization is 3x that of all the other platforms combined.
Developers don’t like the 30% tax but can live with it
Some bigger players are circumventing the tax trap and building applications that allow for transactions outside the app store e.g. Amazon, Uber.
50% of developer costs are in porting if they chose multiple platforms so for many developers the margin pressure is intense and might not be sustainable.
While the 30% tax is cumbersome, Apple is primarily interested in selling devices and can easily lower or change the economics if that what helps them keep their competitive advantage. They have given out $10B to developers which means the appstore has generated over $14.3B in revenues thus far. The revenue it makes is barely keeping its servers humming.
The 30% tax is a false debate as in the larger scheme of things it doesn’t matter and can easily go away if that is what seems critical to the strategy.
The approach to HTML5 is not straightforward either – there are issues with performance and hence usability, fragmentation, discovery, monetization, and timely access to device APIs.
92% of gaming is casual gaming and those game developers are already developing HTML5 based games e.g. Doubledown which is doing $100M in revenues

Facebook and Linkedin withdrew from HTML5 very publicly in favor of native and that put a lot of pressure on the HTML5 efforts of many corporations who started questioning if they are on the right track. However, the choice of the platform really depends on the overall strategy and the context of your content and offering. The decision can’t be taken in isolation. As Sencha was later able to demonstrate, one can build a better HTML5 app if one just focuses on it (read: get the right developers involved in the project).

Enterprise to lead the way

The kick to the HTML5 wagon might come from the enterprise who are worried about security and want to leverage their existing development resources (Enterprise software pricing also tends to be higher).
There is much more money in the enterprise segment than the consumer space and enterprise customers are going to make a concerted effort with HTML5
The available of open cloud APIs from the likes of Amazon and Intel will accelerate the move towards HTML5.

HTML5 needs to solve

Payments – a single API that can avoid filling out forms and work as seamlessly as the iTunes checkin which btw has 575 million accounts. Facebook are you listening? Operators can again play a role but getting a uniform API across operators is a herculean task.
Fragmentation – While fragmentation will never go away, browser vendors need to align themselves to reduce fragmentation for faster adoption
Device performance – Qualcomm is optimizing chipsets for HTML5. In the future, we could see multicore processors with one or more cores dedicated to HTML5 performance and optimization.
Faster standards adoption – Standards by nature move at snail’s pace and can’t keep up with the native innovation. The API access is critical for developers and unless HTML5 makes headways in a significant ways, it is an issue for many developers.
Discovery – while we might resort to web search, the app search environment actually works really well (though it needs to improve a great deal as well). It provides curation by the community which is helpful for discovery besides vanilla search.
Notifications, DRM, Secure storage, and background processing all need to be at par with the native experience.

The world is not either/or

In reality, developers decide on their toolset based on the task at hand. Most of the times, the app is a hybrid of native and web. Web is encapsulated by native.
However, to reduce the development costs, more usage of HTML5 is desired once we get past some of the problems we discussed above.

What do consumers think?

Consumers are pretty happy w/ iOS and Android and not really clamoring for new platform but competitive forces brings out the best in all. Android keeps iOS on its toes and a third strong platform will ensure the top two don’t get complacent. So, while consumers are not really screaming HTML5, the ecosystem forces of checks and balances necessitate the need for something like HTML5.

All in all, a great discussion. Had insightful questions and comments from the audience as well who are well-plugged into the debate.

Thanks for all those who came and participated. My thanks to the speakers for making the time to share their insights.

Next, our Mobile Future Forward Summit is coming up on Sept 10. The early bird expires this friday so make sure you grab your tickets.

We also released our Mobile Future Forward Research Series Paper -

It goes into details about why some players are successful in the device space and others aren’t. You can download it here.

Thanks and have a great rest of the month.

New Research: What (Really) Drives Mobile Device Market Performance?

Posted by chetan in : Chetan Sharma Consulting, Connected Devices, Devices, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Future Forward, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment

What (Really) Drives Mobile Device Market Performance?

- A Mobile Future Forward Series Research Paper

http://chetansharma.com/What_Drives_Mobile_Device_Market_Performance.htm

Introduction

The computing landscape has drastically changed over the last five years. Consumers are increasingly seeking connected devices with majority of them being mobile. In fact, due to the aggressive buying habits of the US consumer, the overall computing landscape in terms of quarterly sales has unquestionably tilted towards smartphones and tablets. While Apple wasn’t the first one to launch the smartphone, its iPhone completely changed the market dynamics. Google’s Android and Samsung have also ridden the tidal wave perfectly. The US market has been ground zero in the battle of the mobile ecosystems, the war of computing platforms, and quarter-over-quarter sales hand-to-hand combat.

During the 2008-2010 timeframe, it was obvious that the gap between the iPhone and rival offerings was tremendous. The user interface, ease of use, and just the quality of product design won consumers over. Microsoft to its own admission completely misread the shifting landscape and paid dearly. Its once dominant share of computing (95%) was cut into less than half in a matter of four years. The disruption from iOS and Android was so intense that Microsoft had to go back to the drawing board. Microsoft wasn’t alone in being complacent. Once proud leaders of the mobile smartphone era – Nokia and RIM were in denial for a long time of the changing market. They did end up launching pretty credible offerings in 2012-2013 but were clearly late by half-a-decade. LG who once used to go toe-to-toe with Samsung in all major markets just couldn’t keep up with the frantic pace of innovation and product cycles and its weak structural beams gave up under stress. HTC, once the Android darling of the industry, had several mis-steps and hasn’t been able to recover ever since despite launching some great devices.

Given the massive shifts in the computing landscape, it will be instructive to understand “What really drives device market performance?” What factors influence the purchase behavior of the consumer? And can OEMs change their strategy to impact sales? Why have Microsoft and Nokia not been able to make a dent in the trajectory despite having a compelling OS, range of devices, consumer-friendly price-points, better distribution, and increased level of advertising dollars? Will Blackberry be able to recover? Why hasn’t HTC One been able sell in similar numbers as the Galaxy S4 despite being better by most accounts? What will it take for LG to increase share? Can Motorola stay relevant? Can new entrants disrupt the waters? Can ZTE and Huawei come from the bottom and disrupt the top players? Will Apple and Samsung be able to protect their position on the top?

We have tried to address these questions using a framework that looks at the complicated equation of market performance. It is based on subjective assessment but it is informed by data on some of the key variables that impact device sales. The model is applicable to tablet sales as well. It gives us a reference model that can provide an understanding of the shortcomings of certain OEMs relative to others.

By honing in on the model, and with real-time inputs to the model, one can also get a fair assessment of the future device sales. However, sales is just one metric to consider. One has to also look at revenue and profits along with the competitive positioning in the marketplace to truly assess the “market performance” of the player. Having a strong unit share position in the market place is desirable but not a necessary condition to have a strong market performance in a given market. The size of the revenues and profits matter a great deal as well. Similarly, how a company manages and maintains its competitive advantage is very critical. From 2007-2011, Nokia had a dominant unit share but its competitive roadmap looked terrible and the market recognized that. Similarly, Blackberry (then RIM) was the dominant smartphone player of 2008-2009 but it was pretty clear that it is going to end up at a significant disadvantage if it didn’t change its ways in responding to the iPhone.

The mobile market is far from static, it has changed dramatically over the last ten years and it will change again in the next ten. However, the factors that drive market performance are likely to stay consistent.

The paper is primarily focused on the US market; however, model can be adapted for any region or country provided that enough reliable data is available to feed the model. Using the model and our understanding of the industry, we will try to answer the questions raised in this introduction and discuss the most important question of them all – What really drives device market performance?

Download from Mobile Future Forward website

Your feedback is always welcome.

Chetan Sharma

We will be keeping a close eye on the trends in the wireless data sector in our blog, twitter feeds, future research reports, and articles. The next US Wireless Data Market update will be released in June 2013. The next Global Wireless Data Market update will be issued in July 2013.

Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this paper are our clients.

Mobile Future Forward – Speaker Update June 4, 2013

Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a comment

Greetings,

I thought I will provide an update on our fall mobile executive summit – Mobile Future Forward (Sept 10^th in Seattle).

The mobile industry is entering what I call the “golden period” of its evolution. The fourth wave of mobile is going to generate trillions of dollars over the course of the next decade. The ecosystem will become more diverse, each of the major verticals will get redefined by mobile, and consumers around the globe will benefit tremendously from connections to information, intelligence, objects, and each other. Enterprise productivity and efficiency will increase manifold and the golden period of mobile will help shape human history. But how and by whom? That will be the crux of the summit in September.

The two key verticals that will benefit from the transition are Retail and Health and we have some outstanding speakers to address the opportunities. Best Buy is the biggest electronics retailer and Starbucks is the biggest coffeehouse company in the world. AT&T is probably the first mobile operator to hire a Chief Medical Information Officer (Dr. Geeta Nayyar), Raj is on his 3^rd startup in the patient care space that is using mobile very effectively and making a big difference, and Jef is blending the fitness/health space with innovative device and service that goes beyond counting steps.

Retail

Jude Buckley, President – Mobility, Best Buy

Marianne Marck, SVP – Consumer Facing Technology, Starbucks

Health

Dr. Geeta Nayyar, Chief Medical Information Officer, AT&T

Raj Toleti, President/CTO – Coordinated Care Solutions, Patient Point

Jef Holove, CEO, Basis

We are delighted to be partnering with some of the leading players in the ecosystem: CitrixByteMobile, Ericsson, Intel, Synchronoss, and Telefonica.

Some of the outstanding group of executives who are responsible for changing the face of the industry every day will be leading the discussion. Their insights will be invaluable and actionable.

Confirmed Speakers

· Ralph de la Vega, President and CEO, AT&T Mobility

· Steve Elfman, President, Sprint

· Erik Moreno, EVP, Fox Networks

· Danny Bowman, Chief Sales and Operating Officer, Samsung

· Terry Myerson, Corporate Vice President – Windows Phone, Microsoft

· Marios Zenios, VP – Uconnect, Chrysler Group

· Jef Holove, CEO, Basis

· Geeta Nayyar, Chief Medical Officer, AT&T

· Rowland Shaw, VP – Strategy, Ericsson

· Raj Toleti, President, Patient Point

.. More to come

· Stephen David, former CIO, P&G

· Glenn Lurie, President, AT&T Mobility

· Jude Buckley, President – Mobility, Best Buy

· Marianne Marck, SVP – Consumer Facing Technology, Starbucks

· Henning Schulzrinne, CTO, FCC

· Fay Arjomandi, Head Vodafone Xone, Vodafone

· Biju Nair, EVP and CSO, Synchronoss

· Hank Skorny, VP/GM – Software Services, Intel

· Curtis Kopf, VP – Customer Innovation, Alaska Airlines

· Matt Carter, President – Emerging Solutions, Sprint

The Mobile Future Forward team, our esteemed partners, our fantastic speakers and our engaged community are really looking forward to Sept 10^th.

I hope you will join us in what is shaping up to be an exceptional gathering of the mobile minds. Registration is open now.

Thanks and best wishes.

Kind regards,

Chetan Sharma

NY Times piece on our forthcoming research

Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a comment

I have been looking at the question of what drives mobile device market performance and will have a paper to share soon. In the meantime, New York Times did a piece on the upcoming paper.

A Best-Selling Phone? It’s Not Just a Good Phone

By BRIAN X. CHEN

Making a good phone isn’t enough to compete in the brutal handset market. Just ask HTC, BlackBerry, Nokia and just about any company that isn’t Apple. Chetan Sharma, an independent telecommunications analyst who does consulting for carriers, has come up with a formula to help explain how a phone becomes a big seller or a flop in the United States.

HTC has had inventory issues with its flagship phone, HTC One, since the phone was introduced.

In Mr. Sharma’s report, which will be released next week, he explains that a company must successfully execute a number of factors. Not only must it deliver a good product, it also has to have tight control over the supply chain to gain access to the components needed to make the phones — because if a phone is suddenly in high demand, the company can only sell as many handsets as it makes.

Samsung, which makes components, and Apple, which has strong influence over suppliers, are clearly at an advantage when it comes to controlling the supply chain. HTC, on the other hand, has struggled partly because its new flagship smartphone, HTC One, has faced inventory issues since the phone was introduced because of trouble getting some parts.

Another big piece is marketing, Mr. Sharma said. Everything from TV ads to Web ads, and from in-store promotions to billboards, helps build buzz for a product. The phone carriers, AT&T and Verizon Wireless, play a large role in marketing. They decide how much they want to promote the handsets inside their stores, as well as how much to train retail employees on selling the phones to customers.

Branding — how a consumer perceives the company — is also a major factor. Apple and Samsung both have strong brand recognition, whereas a company like HTC is barely known in the United States.

“One has to be effective on all fronts to be a leader,” Mr. Sharma said. “Apple used to dominate on all fronts. Its product was far ahead of anyone in the industry, but lately others have caught up.” Samsung, for instance, has been catching up on brand equity with marketing, he said.

Mobile Breakfast Series: Seattle June 3, 2013

Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a comment

We are gearing up for our Mobile Breakfast Series Discussion on 6/11. There was a recent global developer survey and HTML5 ranked a close third behind Android and iOS as the platform of choice for mobile developers around the globe. We saw the same results in our annual industry predictions survey with developers favoring HTML5 over others as their 3^rd platform of choice. With recent launches, Windows and Blackberry are also fighting for that 3^rd spot.

We have a great panel do discuss the future of mobile ecosystems and HTML5’s role in it. Given the limited resources, developers have to focus on platforms that give them maximum reach and ROI. Our panel will delve into the intricacies of the mobile platform future growth and trends. Hank, Jeff, Sundeep, and Ashok have decades of experience in the mobile space having seen some of these cycles several times. They are also involved in shaping the industry on a day-to-day basis from strategy, product, and investment point of view. Their insights into what to expect will be great and I am really looking forward to the debate and discussion.

Location: Columbia Tower Club, Seattle

Date: June 11, 2013

07:30 - 08:30 - Breakfast and Networking
08:30 - 10:00 - Panel Discussion
10:00 - 11:00 - Networking

Registration First come, first served.

Hank Skorny is Vice President and General Manager of Intel Services Division. Skorny is responsible for the Intel strategy and delivery of a portfolio of unified software services across the device and operating system continuum. He has extensive experience in the mobile software and services industry as well as in PC software going back 25 years. Prior to joining Intel, he was senior vice president and Chief Strategy Officer of Realnetworks. Previously Skorny served as CEO of Thumbspeed, Inc., where he led Thumbspeed through its acquisition by OZ Communications subsequently acquired by Nokia. Prior to Thumbspeed, Skorny held senior executive positions at Infospace Mobile and AOL Mobile, as well as senior positions at Adobe Systems, Microsoft and Apple Computer across his career. Hank studied Chemistry at Drexel University and received much recognition for his research in computer modeling of complex 3-D chemical reactions.

Jeff Warren is the Vice President, Mobile and Online Partner Marketing at Expedia.com, after joining the company in March 2011as the head of their mobile product organization. Prior to Expedia, Jeff was the Senior Director of Business Development at Motorola, where he was responsible for creating and developing Motorola’s relationships with Internet companies such as Google, Yahoo and others. Prior to joining Motorola in 2005, Jeff held a variety of product management and business development roles with startups based in Boston such as Brandwise and SQA (now part of IBM), and three years at the early-stage private equity firm Atlas Venture.

Sundeep Peechu is a Partner at Felicis where he leads investments in mobile, enterprise and health. He currently serves as a director/observer on the boards of Alt12, Appurify, MindSnacks, Matterport and PlotWatt. Also serves as unofficial cheerleader for numerous others. Prior to joining Felicis, he held various product roles at Intel where he led the development of a high-performance platform for extending interoperability across the hospital network. He also led the development of various XML products within the software division. Sundeep joined Intel in 2005 through the acquisition of Sarvega, where he was an early employee responsible for the design of the web services infrastructure. He also had brief stints at NEA where he focused on mobile and emerging markets and at Simbol Mining where he developed key initiatives around the production of battery materials. Sundeep has a Bachelors in Computer Science from the Indian Institute of Technology, Madras, an M.S in Computer Science from the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign and an MBA from the Stanford Graduate School of Business.

Asokan Ashok serves as the Director of Content & Services at Samsung, responsible for recommending strategies to address technology and market trends as well as strategic alliances. He is a respected speaker at international conferences on technology. He authors technology and visionary articles for leading magazines around the world. Asokan has over 25 years of international experience in high technology sectors, developing software and communication systems. Asokan has skills blended in technology, business, engineering and management, and is very effective in Technology Management. Highly analytical and an industry visionary, Asokan is a sought after global high-tech industry thought leader and trusted strategic advisor by companies. Prior to Samsung, Asokan held a variety of senior technology management positions in brand name high-tech companies like Motorola, Nokia, Ericsson, Compaq (HP) and some for start-ups as well. He is a serial entrepreneur and pioneering high tech inventor. He presently serves on the board of directors/advisors of some technology start-ups.

If you have any burning questions or any feedback, please feel free to send us a note.

Have a great spring and we will see you soon.

Thanks

Announcing Mobile Future Forward 2013 - Mining the trillion dollar opportunity May 13, 2013

Posted by chetan in : Fourth Wave, Mobile Applications, Mobile Future, Mobile Future Forward, US Wireless Market, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment

Greetings,

I hope you are enjoying spring.

I thought I will provide an update on our fall mobile executive summit – Mobile Future Forward (Sept 10^th in Seattle). I am very pleased to announce the preliminary program. We will provide regular updates as we add new executives to the program and continue to refine the discussion topics to give you the best learning and networking experience you can find in the mobile industry. As you know, our programs are deep in content and high on participant caliber. Each year we strive to bring together some of the leading thinkers and doers from around the world to brainstorm the future of mobile. As we like to call it – it is a mobile boot camp with the brightest brains in mobile.

We are delighted to be partnering with some of the leading players in the ecosystem: CitrixByteMobile, Ericsson, Intel, Synchronoss, and Telefonica.

Some of the outstanding group of executives who are responsible for changing the face of the industry every day will be leading the discussion. Their insights will be invaluable and actionable.

Confirmed Speakers

· Ralph de la Vega, President and CEO, AT&T Mobility

· Steve Elfman, President, Sprint

· Erik Moreno, EVP, Fox Networks

· Danny Bowman, Chief Sales and Operating Officer, Samsung

· Terry Myerson, Corporate Vice President – Windows Phone, Microsoft

· Marios Zenios, VP – Uconnect, Chrysler Group

.. More to come

· Stephen David, former CIO, P&G

· Glenn Lurie, President, AT&T Mobility

· Marianne Marck, SVP – Consumer Facing Technology, Starbucks

· Henning Schulzrinne, CTO, FCC

· Fay Arjomandi, Head Vodafone Xone, Vodafone

· Biju Nair, EVP and CSO, Synchronoss

The Mobile Future Forward team, our esteemed partners, our fantastic speakers and our engaged community are really looking forward to Sept 10^th.

I hope you will join us in what is shaping up to be an exceptional gathering of the mobile minds. Registration is open now. Early bird will expire May 31^st.

Thanks and best wishes.

Kind regards,

Chetan Sharma

New Research Paper: The ABCs of SMB Transformation: Apps, Broadband, and the Cloud May 6, 2013

Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, 4th Wave, AORTA, Applications, Chetan Sharma Consulting, Connected Devices, Enterprise Mobility, European Wireless Market, Mobile Cloud Computing, Mobile Ecosystem, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment

The ABCs of SMB Transformation: Apps, Broadband, and the Cloud

- A collaboration between Chetan Sharma Consulting and AT&T

http://www.chetansharma.com/ABCs_of_SMB_Transformation.htm

Download pdf (1.5 MB)

Introduction

In 2013, the US mobile data revenues will exceed $90 billion accounting for over 165% growth in the last 5 years. This makes US the biggest market for mobile data solutions and services. The smartphone penetration in the US went past 50% by mid-2012. The number of applications available to consumer has quadrupled in just the last two years. While the growth in the smartphone segment has been quite impressive, the tablet adoption rate has been the highest in the consumer electronics history. The advent of mobile broadband, powerful computing devices, reliable cloud services and applications have changed the computing landscape forever.

At the same time, the Consumerization of IT is changing the face of the enterprise architecture as well. This is felt more acutely in the small-and-medium business (SMB) segment. US is also the biggest enterprise market in the world and the SMB segment represents the more agile and technology-savvy of the ecosystem. In fact, we think it is a leading indicator of how technologies are going to be adopted in the enterprise ecosystem, what trends will prove to be disruptive, which vertical segments will embrace efficiency, and most importantly, how should we think about the ever-changing landscape as we look towards rest of the decade.

Small businesses are at the heart of the US economic engine. They represent roughly 45% of the non-farm GDP. Every administration, every president focuses on small business growth and job creation. Given the importance of small businesses to the economy, it is worthwhile to look at how their technology needs are changing. Additionally, it is important to understand how they are adopting technology and the impact it is having on their productivity, competitiveness, and efficiency. The technology adoption is also putting some of the traditional industry segments at risk while creating several new growth areas.

To understand the impact of mobile broadband, devices, and cloud applications, we conducted a survey of eighty SMB companies of different shapes and sizes across the US serving different verticals constituting over ten thousand employees. We also looked at the data from over twelve thousand companies in the SMB segment and over twenty thousand larger enterprises. Additionally, we conducted a series of interviews to better understand the motivations, requirements, and feedback of these companies. These companies have been in business for twenty years on average with over two years of experience with mobile data solutions. By understanding how they use and benefit from mobile data solutions, we can better identify the course of enterprise mobility in the US and around the world.

Some interesting findings:

· Small and medium businesses are leading indicators of technology adoption. As referenced in this paper, SMB smartphone and tablet penetration is more than 90 and 65 percent respectively; whereas national smartphone and tablet penetration is roughly 55 and 22 percent.

· Mobile First to Mobile Only. Last year, we proposed that we will start moving from mobile first to mobile only economy. We said that we are approaching a pivot point wherein the mobile first doctrine is going to move to mobile only. We are starting to see strong evidence of that shift. In our survey, roughly 30% of the SMBs are transitioning from desktops/notebooks to smartphones/tablets. Business software and solutions are being transformed by the use of smartphones and tablets. With this shift, we’ve seen the emergence of a generation of app developers focusing primarily on the mobile app platform.

· Mobile broadband, cloud, and apps are providing real and tangible ROI. The SMBs in the survey saw an average savings of 40 minutes per worker per day, which translates into significant impact on profits over the course of the year.

Your feedback is always welcome.

Chetan Sharma

Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this paper are our clients.

Abhi Ingle – The Mobile Cloud Connected Enterprise

Posted by chetan in : 4G, 4th Wave, Applications, Enterprise Mobility, Mobile Cloud Computing, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Future Forward, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment

The following piece is excerpted from the 2011 Mobile Future Forward Book – Connected Universe. Unlimited Opportunities. It was written by Abhi Ingle, then VP, Advanced Mobility Solutions at AT&T and now VP of Innovation and Head of Foundry at AT&T

Technology and Structural Change

An observation of the technology industry reveals three broad trends having a visible impact on business today. First, mobile computing devices continue to add computing capacity and new capabilities at an exponential rate of growth (Figure 1a and 1b). (Moore’s Law is still very much in effect and shows no signs of slowing). Second, wireline and wireless connectivity is being migrated to a flat, high-speed internet protocol architecture providing the ability for the stack of services to be disaggregated. This allows applications to run seamlessly across multiple devices simultaneously in stationary, nomadic and mobile scenarios. Third, the explosion of cloud computing in terms of infrastructures, platforms and applications continues to develop and is now gaining acceptance in mainstream scenarios, both consumer and business (Figure 2).

Figure 1a and 1b: New Uses for Computing (Source: IDC) and New Model of Computing Innovation (Source: 2011. Intel Investor Meeting).

Figure 2: AT&T Mobile Data Volumes Up 8,000% Over Four Years (Source: 2011. AT&T).

Amplifying the impact of these technological changes is a sea-change in technology purchasing, evaluation and consumption in the marketplace. Technology purchasing–previously a top-down IT-driven process–has now morphed in to a bottom-up consumer-driven phenomenon. Alternately referred to as the “consumerization of IT” or the “Bring Your Own Device” (BYOD) movement, it is having a tremendous influence on business IT, effectively redefining where and how technology decisions are made. (Ted Schadler (Forrester Research) and Josh Bernoff (Forrester Research) have written Empowered, an entire book dedicated to this trend alone).

Any of these advances taken individually is an exciting evolution, but the opportunity presented by the combination of these technologies and trends taken together is revolutionary. This troika of technological advancements and industry trends can be viewed through two lenses, either as an incredible opportunity or an insurmountable challenge.

This dichotomous view is understandable. There are formidable obstacles as companies realize that they may have to reengineer twenty years of PC-centric architecture to contend with multiple connected devices, multiple computing platforms and multiple applications (which may or may not run on all of the same platforms). It can be an overwhelming task even for the most forward-thinking organizations. We choose to view this as a rare opportunity for businesses agile enough to harness these trends to make dramatic business improvements by transforming classic enterprise IT architectures to real-time, business process driven, cloud-based mobile architectures. A systemic phased approach with the right partners can make this a manageable and self-funding transformation.

We find the three technology changes referenced earlier to be mutually reinforcing. For example, the advent of powerful smartphones, tablets and connected devices changes the computing paradigm to be one in which there are many devices per person. Having several devices inherently leads to the necessity to have data and applications accessible by multiple devices simultaneously.

What is the phenomenon ideally suited for housing applications allowing access from multiple end points? The cloud! And, of course, all of this would not work if all of these devices were not always on and connected through incredibly fast flat IP networks (wireless and wireline). The business network is, in fact, the most mature virtualized element, secure MPLS-based connectivity which increasingly forms the core of enterprise connectivity today was the original “cloud or virtualized” service. The virtualization of data centers, servers, storage, processing power and the XaaS phenomenon is taking the other elements towards the same evolution as the network, in effect creating a virtualized or cloud fabric in which network, processing, storage and software can flex to the needs of the enterprise on a dynamic basis (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Cascading Waves of Innovation (Source: 2011. AT&T).

Much has been written about the technologies involved in this change, but surprisingly little about a business framework that can fully take advantage of these changes. Capitalizing on this opportunity will require a holistic framework encompassing people, processes, assets (Figure 4) and linkages between the three in an architecture that provides the enterprise with the ability to sense, analyze and respond in real-time (Figure 5).

Figure 4: Framework for a Real-Time Event Driven Enterprise. (Source: 2011. AT&T).

Figure 5: Sense, Analyze, Respond Relationship. (Source: 2011. AT&T).

Consider two companies we have worked with recently on extreme ends of the spectrum. The first, a large beverage distribution company, with a history of successfully implementing progressive mobility solutions, wanted to retain its competitive advantage.

The second, a 20-person company providing specialized healthcare supplies, with no automation, sought to capitalize on creating a real-time enterprise which they could never have afforded prior to these technological changes. Both of these companies have dramatically transformed their business processes around the concept of the real-time enterprise in which people, process and assets are always connected and can be optimized on the go.

Figure 6: Beverage distribution company scenario illustrates real-time demand and supply adaptation (Source: 2011 AT&T).

To understand how the beverage distribution company is thinking about the future and how they can capitalize on the technology changes, visualize this scenario:

A large group of bicycle riders are out on a long ride on their bicycles on a hot day and require a sports drink to rehydrate (Figure 6, Illustration A). Those of you familiar with road biking will recall that the form fitting lycra outfits that most road bikers wear typically limit what one can carry. Imagine that on the bicycle’s handlebar (where in the past a GPS device would have resided) is instead a sled for the rider’s mobile smartphone, GPS and near field communications, where he or she can use an application to locate the nearest drink machine (Figure 6, Illustration B) and get directions to it (Figure 6, Illustration C).

Once there, the rider can use his or her mobile device to pay for and receive a drink using Near Field Communication (NFC) technology. The process is repeated for the entire group of bikers, depleting the machine of all the sport drinks (Figure 6, Illustration D). In a non-real time world, the company would fail its’ consumer at the moment of truth – it would direct thirsty riders to an empty machine. But in our real-time connected world, the connected vending machine has already signaled its status to the cloud, has been taken off the database before the next set of riders would see, and they are automatically directed to the next closest machine.

Simultaneously, cloud based analytics ensure that “restock work orders” are routed to all supply trucks in the area (Figure 6, Illustration E). (All trucks are equipped with automated vehicle location technologies that are continuously connected). Each supply truck driver has a handheld device to receive the alert and the ability to accept a restocking order and go refill the depleted machine. As soon as this is done the vending machine resignals its status and is immediately shown on the next dynamic search a consumer makes. Imagine the efficiencies and revenue maximization as a result of these real-time interactions!

One could even imagine correlating this cycle to the weather/temperature or time of day to drive even further efficiencies. Clearly, not everything outlined in this scenario has been implemented to date, but by preparing for the future, this company is systemically transforming its business processes and moving to a real-time mobile IT architecture.

Now let’s take a look at the small twenty person specialized health supplies company harnessing these technology trends to completely revise the operations of their company around a mobile, real- time cloud delivered core.

Figure 7: Rehabilitation Company Specializing in Wheelchairs (Source: 2011 AT&T).
(ProntoForms is a trademark of TrueContext Corporation.)

The Scenario Prior to Transformation: The company– a privately owned corporation–supplies custom wheelchairs to customers. The company operated primarily via paper forms requiring extensive calling back and forth using basic phones and a classic company reception system despite the fact that the company could not afford to keep the company phone line staffed around the clock. The company also owned two delivery vans to pick up and deliver wheelchairs the company was either servicing or supplying. Since the company could not afford any more vans, multiple calls to these vans to ensure on time delivery and pickup was critical.

The AT&T Mobility Applications Consultant who called upon this company soon realized the company was too small to either host, manage or support any onsite software or even deploy and maintain PCs. The answer was delivering four applications through the cloud direct to smartphones (in this case iPhones) and to specialized tracking devices. What follows is a summary of the 4 different solutions and the problems they addressed. (Refer to Figure 7 for the following).

Solution #1: The company’s wheelchair technicians used paper forms for everything they did; surveying customers about their needs, taking down specs or noting repairs delivered. This equated to three different forms over four pages in length. Each day field technicians filled out the forms and turned them in. Then they were formally entered/rekeyed at the end of every day. This was a time consuming effort with frequent errors and inaccuracies that had to be found, corrected, and re-entered.

The company was transitioned to a cloud delivered, mobile forms solution. The Pronto Forms Solution delivered by AT&T converted a paper intensive environment into a highly efficient method of capturing data. The forms were automated on iPhones for the field technicians and eliminated all the paperwork and rekeying steps, cutting the previous process time by approximately 75% per form. The information is also available online as soon as the technician fills out the form.

Solution #2: As previously mentioned, this company has two vans on the road constantly making deliveries. But the owner has no visibility as to current vehicle location, if they are on schedule, and if the miles driven are valid.

The TeleNav Vehicle Tracker from AT&T, a vehicle tracking solution involving a box that can be attached to the van and a cloud delivered portal provides visibility of corporate vehicles at all times. This ensures the vehicles whereabouts, if the driver is on schedule, and how far the vehicles have been driven. All this leads to better customer service, better image, and increased safety, security, and business stability.

Solution #3: The owner often needed to send out communication blasts to employees to see if someone could fulfill a particular task when they were short staffed in one department, but the owner and employees were only able to receive messages from customers on a 1:1 basis, slowing communication down. The implementation of AT&T Enterprise Paging allowed the owner to send one message to all employees via a simple text messaging portal and confirm receipt/delivery of messages.

Solution #4: After-hours management of the business was practically non-existent since the company was so small, yet their customers were dependent on their wheelchairs and needed the ability to reach someone in the company immediately.

AT&T Office@Hand, a cloud delivered PBX to the smartphone with a very simple web GUI, provided the customer with the ability to better manage and control after-hours service. It unifies employees in a business-on-one-phone system and includes auto-receptionist, multiple extensions, voicemail, call handling, faxing, and other features. The owner can assign a receptionist, a “sales, technician or repair” department on the fly depending on which employees are available.

The bottom line: The company was able to accomplish with $99 smartphones and asset tracking devices and a monthly software subscription fee of <$500, what would have previously involved buying $800-$1000 PCs , tens of thousands of dollars of enterprise software, a PBX system and an IT person to deploy and manage the software and communications. The difference is startling! Contrast capital and OPEX running into $200,000 vs. a CAPEX of <$1500 and monthly subscription fees of <$500 for the software. Even better, all of this is delivered by one company (AT&T) with a simple monthly bill that includes: Voice charges, data charges and applications charges all as one consolidated bill with one point of contact. This scenario even 3-4 years ago was unimaginable prior to the convergence of the three technology trends. It is the ultimate democratization of technology.

Changing Roles for Everyone In the Value Chain

The trends that we outlined above have profound implications for everyone involved in the technology delivery, evaluation, implementation and support chain. Consider the two examples outlined above. Each of these involved solutions comprised of innovative applications that live in the cloud and are delivered to smartphones or “always on connected devices” and paid for via subscription models.

Consider my own company, AT&T. Many of you are likely surprised that the role AT&T is playing in a rapidly evolving market such as this, and many of you might be skeptical of the need/value /competency of AT&T to play such a role, and rightfully so.

To illustrate my position, I would ask anyone who is curious to conduct a simple experiment. While inside of Apple’s App Store or the Android Market, type in “business application” and stand back as you compile thousands of results. How does a small company determine which application is right for them? How does a small company perform the due diligence to determine which platforms each application will run on, and on which models provided by which service providers? How does a business support, manage and develop to these platforms? Finally, try to find application providers able to provide enterprise billing as opposed to a consumer centric credit card only option.

We came to the conclusion that AT&T needed to adapt to the times by morphing our role to provide solutions to help businesses harness the mobile cloud phenomenon. As a supplier of mobile hardware, virtual private networks and data centers which can serve up mobile applications, we are uniquely qualified to deliver integrated solutions to customers.

But the change from delivering monolithic communication products to a collaborative enterprise partnering with dozens of hardware and software providers is not easy. It requires a significant transformation. First, in our people; hiring and training Mobile Application Consultants, ecosystem managers and vertical specialists. Second, in our process; moving from a product sale architected, managed and supported by AT&T, to a complex solution assembled across many different participants and supported through partnerships. And third, in our assets; from managing a network to a fixed set of devices, to managing a network that connects virtual private mobile application clouds to millions of smartphones, tablets and connected end points.

We felt we had no choice but to make this journey to stay relevant in the brave new world of mobile IT, cloud platforms and connected devices. The AT&T objective is, in effect, to help businesses master the melding of communications and computing together by knitting a series of ecosystem partnerships and providing a platform for other companies to innovate on via hardware and software and services. We believe we can simplify the process of harnessing technology for many business segments and serve as a broad distribution channel for small innovative companies (such as the types of companies showcased in the examples provided earlier) that struggle with brand, distribution and enterprise billing.

Given the far reaching impact of these changes, we believe it is important for all participants in the value chain to rethink their role, assets, people and partnerships for the years to come. Provided below is a quick synopsis of practical implications and considerations for different participants.

Changing Role of the CIO and the Enterprise IT Department

As outlined, in the Advisory Board Article (The Space Race – The Competitive Implications of Next-Generation IT Architecture, Research Summary, The Research Board. June 2010) on the changing role of the CIO, dramatic changes are occurring in the IT department as well. In effect, many companies have gone from having IT departments that DO things (own and drive projects) to an IT department that MANAGES things (potentially working with outside service providers).

This change has an influence on the balance of power between IT departments and Line-of-Business (LOB) departments. In some cases LOB departments find themselves in the unique situation of no longer requiring the assistance of IT and go directly to an external service provider (supplanting the internal IT department). In these cases, the IT department finds itself in the unique situation of having to compete against other service providers as an alternate provider. Enterprise IT should ask themselves if their highest value is in buying piece parts and spend time integrating these solutions or developing them in-house? Or does it make more sense to turn your department into high value business process analysis groups supplemented by strong architects who can put the various solution providers together?

The answer for each company will vary, but there is little doubt that a journey towards the latter is necessary. This may warrant changing hiring profiles to shift from maintenance and integration talent to personnel with strong architecture, business analysis and skills in user interfaces and experiences.

1) Software Providers: Consider how software is going to be delivered in the future. Do you stick with shrink wrapped software or begin delivering software over the cloud? Should you do that yourself or partner with others to do that? Who should the partners be? Should the cloud be private or public? Once again, there is no one-size-fits-all answer, for the larger companies such as SAP, it may make sense to build out their own cloud as well as partner with service providers like AT&T. For the smaller companies, they need to also consider the value of distribution, brand, billing and support services in addition to just the cost/capital to build out the cloud.

2) Hardware Suppliers: The success of the iPhone and iPad, tightly integrated mobile platforms and hardware, has every hardware manufacturer wondering if they need to also provide an end-to-end controlled experience. HP has clearly chosen to go down that path with the purchase of Palm/WebOS. Dell on the other hand has bet on a loose coupling with Android and Windows Phone 7. Nokia on the other hand has tightly coupled itself to Windows Phone 7 while Samsung and HTC continue to play across both. How far do hardware manufacturers go down the route of content/application services? How far into systems integration and services do they extend without alienating their downstream channels? How does the entire PC ecosystem transition the set of support, management and application services from the WINTEL era to the post PC, multi-OS environment? These are important issues that the established hardware ecosystem is dealing with even now.

3) Systems Integrators: As hardware and software players forward integrate, is it enough to ally with purely software providers to build “practices” or does it make more sense to ally with new emerging or established service providers? Is there a way for Systems Integrators to move upstream and focus on complex custom application development and service/change management (which most service providers will have little appetite for) and leave the simpler pre-packaged and configured applications to be delivered directly by software providers and/or service providers?

4) Service Providers: Does one move up the value chain and become an integrated supplier of cloud, application and mobile computing service or do you strip away complexity and focus purely on providing bandwidth? What is the set of systems integration and software relationship needed to accomplish this? What is the set of cloud/network APIs that will need to be opened up to truly build a platform on which an ecosystem can build and thrive on and act as a pull through for the infrastructure services? Again, as with all other players in the value chain, the answer will be different depending on the scale, scope and ambitions of the service provider.

Whichever path the companies in the value chain pick, they must all remember the familiar dictum of “adapt or die”. The list of companies throughout many different industries that were unable to adapt to changes in innovation is long. Consider some companies that were considered “unsinkable”: One invented the instant film camera (among many other camera-based devices) that was on the market from 1948 through 2008, or the computer company that employed over 33,000 and had revenues of over $3B in the 1980s, or the airline that was a cultural icon of the 20^th century and shaped the international airline industry… All utterly dominated their respective markets for extended periods of time, then failed to either recognize change, or adjust to it, and ended up perishing.

The current force of technology change is powerful enough that if Mary Meeker from Morgan Stanley is to be believed, we are in the middle of a significant evolution in computing. She calls it the “5^th wave” (Figure 8).

Figure 8: The 5^th Wave of Computing (Source: Morgan Stanley).

One can debate whether it is the 3^rd, 4^th or 5^th wave, but the historical shift in market position and innovation that have accompanied every such wave, one thing we can all agree upon is that the only constant will be change itself. I hope that companies will seize upon this opportunity to unleash an era that we will look back on as the ultimate democratization of computing and connectivity.

At this time of uncertainty, it is edifying to remember a quote from the 35^th President of the United States:

Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future.
- John F. Kennedy

Mobile Breakfast Series – Dallas – LTE & Beyond: The future of mobile networks April 3, 2013

Posted by chetan in : 4G, 4th Wave, LTE, Mobile Breakfast Series, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment

We are pleased to announce Mobile Breakfast Series is coming to Dallas for the first time. Below are some details about the program:

Mobile Breakfast Series - Excellent Speakers. Invaluable Insights. Peerless Networking.

Mobile Breakfast Series is a quarterly event that brings together thought leaders and visionaries from the global mobile industry to interact and share ideas, insights, and best practices with the entrepreneurs, enthusiasts, and everyone who is passionate about mobile. We dive into the most important issues and opportunities in front of our industry with the executives who are making things happen.

Date: June 25^th, 2013

Time: 7:30-11am. 7:30am – Registration, 8:30am – Discussion Begins, 10:00am - Networking

Venue: Tower Club, 1601 Elm Street, Thanksgiving Tower, 48th Floor, Dallas, TX 75201

Registration is open now.

Topic: LTE and Beyond – The future of mobile networks

US is leading the globe in LTE deployment. In fact, most of the cutting-edge engineering with mobile networks is happening here with all major operators deploying LTE. What’s next for mobile networks? How will they evolve over the course of the next decade? Will we be able to keep ahead of the insatiable consumer demand for more? We will have an in-depth discussion with our distinguished speakers.

Fireside Chat:

Kris Rinne, Senior Vice President – Network Technologies, AT&T Labs

Vish Nandlall, Chief Technology Officer & Head of Strategy, Ericsson

Chetan Sharma, President, Chetan Sharma Consulting (moderator)

Kris Rinne, SVP – Network Technologies, AT&T Labs

Kris Rinne is responsible for network architecture, service platforms, radio access roadmap and initial implementation, wireless device requirements and certification, network platforms, network performance analysis, and industry standards development at AT&T. Previously, Rinne served as Cingular’s chief technology officer with similar responsibilities. She earlier served as vice president—Technology and Product Realization, responsible for new product development from a technology standpoint, handset certification, and infrastructure vendor coordination. Prior to joining Cingular, she was vice president—Technology Strategy for SBC Wireless, responsible for new product development and network operations support. She has worked for Southwestern Bell Mobile Systems as managing director—Operations. In 2011, Kris was named as “The Most Influential Woman in Wireless” by Fierce Wireless and was a member of the Global Telecom Business Power 100 list of the most powerful telecom executives.

Vish Nandlall, CTO and Head of Strategy, Ericsson

Vish Nandlall is Head of Strategy, Marketing and Chief Technology Officer for Ericsson’s North American region. He is responsible for identifying Ericsson’s long-term vision, defining the overall company strategy, and driving business value creation for Ericsson’s customers in North America. Nandlall joined Ericsson in 2010, most recently serving as Chief Technical Officer for the company’s AT&T Customer Unit. He previously served as CTO of Extreme Networks and CTO and distinguished member of technical staff for Nortel Carrier Networks. Nandlall has led architecture and standards direction for product portfolios ranging from GSM, CDMA, WiMAX, LTE, metro DWDM, carrier routing and switching, and carrier VoIP portfolios. His recent areas of research include M2M, augmented reality, and mobile virtualization.

New Research Paper: Mobile Patents Landscape: An In-depth Quantitative Analysis – 2013 edition March 26, 2013

Posted by chetan in : 4th Wave, Intellectual Property, Patent Strategies, Patent Strategy, Patents, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment

Introduction

The first recorded reference to patents seems to be in Aristotle’s Politics, composed in the fourth century B.C. However, the first regular administrative apparatus for granting patents – the first patent “system” arose in Venice in the late fifteenth century. As the trade opened up in Europe, the concept of patents spread and reached Great Britain and helped lay the foundations of the modern patent system.

Intellectual Property is the backbone of today’s knowledge economy. The very competitiveness and durability of the nation’s economy depends on how well the framework of IP and patents works in the country and the steps it takes to avoid theft and misuse of the laws while enforcing the rules and regulations on the books. Intellectual property has been an integral part of the economic engine of the western world for many decades if not centuries. Over the past two decades, nations and corporations have competed on the creation, funding, execution, and protection of the new ideas.

Increasingly, the role of mobile devices, networks, and applications has become an important component of the growth story worldwide. Mobile is playing a central role in all of the trillion dollar industries whether it is healthcare or retail, energy or entertainment, transportation or hospitality, enterprise or consumer. Over the past decade there has been a significant increase in investment and innovation in mobile related technologies that can power the larger economies of nations. As the penetration of mobile devices increases in any given nation, so does the GDP. As more consumers adopt smartphones, the access to information spawns a thousand new entrepreneurs from Abu Dhabi to Johannesburg, from Seattle to New Delhi, and from Beijing to Santiago.

All the innovation and economic activity has also increased the patent activity around the world. While US, Europe, and Japan remain the overall leaders in patents both in quantity and quality, China surpassed the US for the first time in the total patents granted in 2011. China’s growth rate in patents was 22% that year compared to 3.8% for the world and 3.3 for the US.

According to the US Patent Office (USPTO), in 2012, the number of applications grew over 61% from a decade ago. Similarly, the number of patents granted grew over 50%by the end of 2012 for the same time period. The numbers of foreign filings are now in the majority for both the applications filed as well as the patents granted. In Europe, similar trends were observed where the EPO (European Patent Office) patent grants increased by 23%.

As we look into the mobile related patents, the growth is much more striking

The number of mobile related patents that were granted by the USPTO and the EPO increased significantly over the course of last decade. The US market saw a 591% increase while the European market saw a 76% increase in mobile related patent grants.

Another interesting fact is that in 2013, we expect roughly quarter of all patents granted in the US will be mobile related. This grew from around 2% in 1991 and 5% in 2001. In Europe, roughly 10% of the patents granted are now related to mobile.

Chetan Sharma Consulting analyzed over 7 million patents granted by the USPTO and EPO over the last two decades to understand how mobile has become a key enabler for all technology companies. Furthermore, we looked at patent granted to the top 65 technology companies who are active in the mobile space to understand their relative strengths and weaknesses in the mobile patents landscape. This study is second in the series that does an in-depth quantitative analysis of the mobile patents landscape.

Paper can be downloaded here

Mobile Breakfast Series – June Events

Posted by chetan in : HTML5, LTE, Mobile Breakfast Series, Mobile Future Forward, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment

Greetings,

It was awesome to see so many of you at the Mobile Breakfast Series Event last week. For those of you who couldn’t make it, here is the summary.

We also announced the date for our Mobile Future Forward program – Sept 10th in Seattle. Stay tuned for some really exciting announcements regarding speakers and the program.

Also pleased to announce the next two breakfast series events.

June 11th – Seattle – HTML5 – Is it really disruptive?

Hank Skorny, Vice President and GM – Consumer Software, Intel

June 25th – Dallas – LTE and Beyond – The Future of Mobile Networks

Kris Rinne, Senior Vice President, Architecture and Network Planning, AT&T

Vish Nandlall, Chief Technology Officer and Head of Strategy, Ericsson

.. more speakers to be announced.

Registration is open now. First come, first served.

If you have any burning questions or any feedback, please feel free to send us a note.

Have a great spring and we will see you soon.

Thanks

Mobile Breakfast Series Recap – Cloud, SDN, and the art of mobile computing March 25, 2013

Posted by chetan in : 4th Wave, AORTA, ARPU, Applications, Big Data, Mobile Applications, Mobile Breakfast Series, Mobile Cloud Computing, Privacy, Security, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 2 comments

Mobile Breakfast Series entered its 5th year of operation this week with our first event of the year in Seattle. The topic of discussion was Cloud, SDN, and the art of mobile computing.

2012 has been an incredible year for mobile. Despite the global economic doldrums, mobile is a $1.5 trillion economy with new entrants, new disruptions, new devices, technologies, networks, etc. One of the major shifts is in how the revenue is generated for the industry. Mobile operators around the world capture over 85% of the industry’s profits. However, if you take a look at the top 5 global players by profits – it is China Mobile, Apple, Verizon, AT&T and DoCoMo. Still dominated by service providers but Apple wasn’t on the list 2 years back. So, how will the list look like 5 years from now?

There is a clear shift going on what I call “the fourth wave” i.e. industry’s new revenues are going to come from services and solutions. And mobile operators are not silent participants on this wave. Players like Verizon, AT&T, Telefonica, and DoCoMo are going toe-to-toe with the OTT or Internet players. If you remember the early 2000s, mobile data wasn’t even registering on the revenue scale; 10 years ago mobile data revenues were less than $1 billion per year in the US. Last year, we reported $79 billion, this year it will grow to $90 billion. In fact, we might see a shift where data revenues > voice revenues this year in the US. It has already happened in Japan, over 65% revenue coming from data. But what happens when data saturates, the revenue is going to come from fourth wave services and solutions. You will start to see operators break out revenues from digital services.

So, the question is what those services are – cloud is on top of the list, big data and analytics is on the top of that list? How are these going to be supported – by LTE network, buy SDN enabled network infrastructure? To discuss all of this we assembled a great panel.

Mitch Lewis, Vice President, Juniper Networks

Biju Nair, EVP and Chief Corporate Strategy Officer of Synchronoss

Randy Wagner, Executive Director, B2B Sales and Marketing, Verizon Wireless

Louis Brun, Senior Vice President, Marketing and Product Strategy, Guavus

Chetan Sharma, President, Chetan Sharma Consulting (moderator)

Before we began, Mitch Lewis gave a talk on “Seven Leadership Principles From Everest” .. yes, you read it right, Everest. Mitch has not only climbed Everest but each of the 7 highest peaks on the 7 continents. If that were not enough, he has run 7 marathons on these continents as well. It was indeed a thrill and a privilege to host my friend Mitch and have him talk about his experiences and the lessons from a dream that he accomplished over the course of 8 years. Just a phenomenal achievement.

Below is his presentation and a video from his talk. Enjoy and get motivated.

We could have just stopped there

But we had plenty to discuss on the state of mobile cloud computing and the emergence of SDN.

Below is the summary of the discussion:

Cloud Computing

One can’t think about M2M w/o thinking cloud. The billions of sensors that will come onboard over the next few years will be talking to the cloud in some shape or fashion.
While there is a lot of focus on enterprise cloud, Synchronoss has been focused on the personal cloud and how personal information from the device is backed-up, shared, and run analytics on to create new services and revenue opportunities.
(Infinite) Mobile storage is really not free. One way or another consumer is going to pay and the provider is going to get the money either directly or indirectly.
Health vertical is seeing great traction. Others like retail and transportation are also seeing good action.
Some of the emerging markets and emerging operators like Bharti see 4th wave as an opportunity to leapfrog some of the traditional thinking and while access is important to them, they want to focus on digital revenues more aggressively than even some of their western counterparts.
Hybrid clouds are going to be most prevalent.
Security is hugely important for cloud, for both SMBs and large enterprises and while there are going to be vulnerabilities, it is going to be no different than how things are on the Internet and customers are getting more educated about security issues and best practices.
While we have made significant progress with cloud solutions, video and associated bandwidth issues remain a problem and there is no specific solution in sight thought LTE-Broadcast seems to be on horizon.
Cloud interoperability requirements will become much more important and companies are already working on abstracting the complexity of different competing clouds from the application.
Consumers might not like their service providers but they trust them and hence the opportunity to provide cloud related solutions to them.
The mobile network traffic for Dropbox is 25 times that of iCloud and 20 times that of Evernote.

SDN

Juniper acquired Contrail Systems, Cisco acquired Cariden, VMware acquired Nicira – accelerating the interest in SDN and what it means to the infrastructure business.
It is uncertain how SDN is going to impact the financials of the mobile operators and the infrastructure providers. Does the revenue stream just move up to software?
SDN clearly provides flexibility and more manageability to the network and we can expect some deployments by the end of the year. There are a number of trials underway.

Privacy and Security

Everything and everyone can be tracked even with the phone off. Keep that in mind next time
Given that all this data is being sent to the cloud, one can expect that the security requirements to become even more strict.
Security, scalability, and global IP backbone is how Verizon is differentiating with the likes of Amazon. Verizon has over 200 data centers around the globe.
There is big internal debate at the operators as well as discussions with the regulators as to how big data should be used and monetized. How much privacy is enough? How do you make your partners also accountable for the data use? What information to sell and when? 2013 might provide some answers.
Policy plays a significant role in managing privacy and security both in the network and at the device level.
Identity is emerging as a service offering. We might get rid of the phone number and just use IP address (dynamic or static) for devices that are tied to the user. Dynamic SIM allocation based on usage could be introduced as well.
For verticals such as Healthcare where HIPAA compliance is necessary, operators typically have private tunnels for added security.

Big Data

Big Data has been around for a long time but we are starting to harness useful signals from the noise in real-time to make effective use of the intelligence in data.
Mobile operators are using the data and exposing it for their own use as well as to the developers with APIs such as customer profile. Same data is also being used for churn management, network performance, etc.
In Europe, big data is being used to offer insurance on mobile devices by effectively targeting consumers.
TV stations are also using big data to target consumers when they engage with their content on mobile.

As usual, it was a lively discussion and with the added presentation from Mitch, a memorable one indeed. Mobile cloud has become a layer of computing just like security or connectivity. This fundamental capability has led to a thousand new companies looking to move the art of computing a bit forward. Software Defined Networking is slated to disrupt the infrastructure in a big way, provide more flexibility to service providers and developers to create even more compelling services and user experiences.

We also announced the date of our 2013 Mobile Future Forward. On Sept 10th this year, leaders of the mobile industry will gather in Seattle to brainstorm the future of mobile. As usual, it is going to be a delight to host the best and brightest. So mark your calendars, make your plans, and we hope to see you there later this year. More news to come in the coming weeks.

Thanks to all those who attended and thanks to Synchronoss for being our series partner.

Chetan

CNBC – Samsung’s Galaxy Launch March 15, 2013

Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a comment

Had an opportunity yesterday to talk to CNBC about Samsung’s Galaxy Launch. The discussion appeared across two segments of PowerLunch and Street Signs

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000154498

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000154490

Similar discussion with New York Times and USA Today

Mobile Breakfast Series: Mobile Cloud: March 21: Speaker/Program Update March 14, 2013

Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a comment

Greetings,

Just wanted to update you on the program on a couple of exciting new editions.

We have a special treat for you.

Some of you might know that Mitch Lewis, our esteemed panelist from Juniper is an accomplished mountain climber and marathoner. He is in fact, one of the rare individuals in the world who have climbed 7 tallest peaks and ran 7 marathons in each of the 7 continents (highest peaks are Everest, Kilimanjaro, Denali, Elbrus, Aconcagua, Carstensz Pyramid, and Vinson).

In December, he climbed Mt. Vinson in Antarctica to complete the goals he set for himself 10 years ago. I didn’t want to miss the opportunity to have Mitch talk a bit more about his extraordinary journey and what it took to accomplish this monumental goal while evangelizing Cloud, Mobile, and SDN at Juniper Networks. Mitch has agreed to give us a short talk on “Seven Leadership Principles From Everest.” Trust me, you don’t want to miss this talk.

Of course, we will have our full-fledged discussion on mobile cloud computing.

I am excited to add Louis Brun, SVP at Guavus – a mobile big data company. The nexus of big data and cloud is made for each-other and I want to explore what kind of opportunities this is creating in the ecosystem. Louis, co-founded Neuralitic Systems, an analytics company which got bought by Guavus that is doing some really interesting work in the big data space. Louis will also bring the startup perspective to the discussion. I am glad to have him onboard.

Registration. We will be closing registration soon, so be sure to reserve your spot.

Mobile Cloud, SDN, and the art of mobile computing

Shankar Chandran, Vice President, Samsung Catalyst Fund,

Mitch Lewis, Vice President, Juniper Networks

Biju Nair, EVP and Chief Corporate Strategy Officer of Synchronoss

Randy Wagner, Executive Director, B2B Sales and Marketing, Verizon Wireless

Louis Brun, Senior Vice President, Marketing and Product Strategy, Guavus

Chetan Sharma, President, Chetan Sharma Consulting (moderator)

Location: Columbia Tower Club, Seattle

Date: March 21st

Program: Cloud, SDN, and the art of Mobile Computing

07:30 - 08:30 - Breakfast and Networking
08:30 - 10:00 - Panel Discussion
10:00 - 11:00 - Networking

Shankar Chandran is vice president, Samsung Catalyst Fund, at the Samsung Strategy and Innovation Center (SSIC), Samsung Electronics. He is responsible for venture capital investments in cloud infrastructure, core technology and mobile technology. Previously, he was part of the founding team at Panorama Capital and has been an active venture investor for 11 years at Panorama Capital and at JP Morgan Partners. Shankar has held various engineering, business development and management roles at Applied Materials, Inc., and has been granted eight patents as the primary inventor. He also serves on the Advisory Board at the Center for Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Santa Clara University. Shankar holds a Bachelor of Technology degree in Metallurgical Engineering from the Indian Institute of Technology, BHU, India, an MS in Materials Science from Arizona State University, and an MBA from The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.

Biju Nair has over 18 years’ experience as an entrepreneur and technology industry leader. In March 2011, Mr. Nair joined Synchronoss and serves as the Executive Vice President and Chief Corporate Strategy Officer. In this role, Mr. Nair is responsible for leading the strategic vision of the connected devices and cloud computing for profitable growth of the company’s product portfolio. Prior to joining Synchronoss, Mr. Nair was the Chairman & CEO of Sapience Knowledge Systems, Inc., a venture backed wireless software company (acquired by Synchronoss Technologies in 2011). Previously, Mr. Nair held the position of Senior Vice President & GM of the Connectivity and Security Group at Smith Micro Software (NASDAQ: SMSI) and Corporate Vice President & GM and founder of Mobility Solutions Group at PCTEL, Inc. (NASDAQ:PCTI) which was acquired by Smith Micro in 2008). Mr. Nair also held senior executive positions at SAFCO Technologies and Agilent Technologies.

Mitch A. Lewis is Vice President, WW Partners and Alliances for Ericsson at Juniper Networks, since June 2010. He has over 25 years of experience in the telecommunications industry as a service provider, partner and infrastructure solutions provider. His career started with AT&T and developed with Ericsson, Dilithium Networks and Microsoft including a wealth of experience and expertise acquired while based at various positions in Europe, Asia and the United States. Mitch has served in technical, marketing, sales, engineering and general management positions. His background has been centered in telecommunications broadband, IP and mobile networks; voice, data and multimedia; infrastructure, service layer, cloud and applications development solutions. He has been at the forefront of analog to digital, circuit to packet, copper to fiber and network to cloud based evolutions. He holds an MBA and Bachelor’s degrees from Pepperdine University and Executive Management Program certificates from Harvard and Stanford Universities.

Randy Wagner is executive director, B2B Sales & Marketing-West Area for Verizon Wireless, responsible for area-wide marketing, operations and loyalty for the business sales channel. Randy’s team drives growth in emerging areas including Machine to Machine connections, private networks, cloud and security services. Wagner previously served as vice president, Marketing & Sales Operations-West Area for Verizon Wireless, responsible for area-wide marketing strategy, product management, marketing communications, sales operations, training and telesales. Prior to that, he served as executive director-Indirect Distribution and Area Operations Center for Verizon Wireless. He joined Verizon Wireless in 1994 as manager of Finance in Irvine, Calif. Later he held a variety of finance management roles, including director-Financial Operations and Facilities; director-Compliance; and director-Financial Planning and Analysis. Wagner holds a bachelor’s degree in Business Administration with emphasis in Finance from San Diego State University and a Master of Business Administration from Pepperdine University, in Calif.

Louis Brun is a seasoned entrepreneur with a long and successful track record as an executive in the mobile telecommunications and IT industries. Prior to co-founding Neuralitic Systems, Mr. Brun was based in Paris, France where he handled EMEA business development activities for Invidex, an innovative provider of transmission management software for broadcasters. Invidex was sold to Aldeavision in February 2006 (TSXV: AVS). Before joining Invidex, Mr. Brun co-founded Lipso, a company at the forefront of mobile messaging in Canada. Mr. Brun also served as Business Manager at Ericsson where he completely redefined a product line in the OSS area, the revenues of which increased tenfold under his leadership. Mr. Brun has solid experience in venture capital, business strategy and product strategies. Mr. Brun holds a B.Sc. in Electrical Engineering from Université Laval and has completed studies in actuarial methods.

Looking forward to seeing you on 21^st.

« newer posts older posts »

Always On Real-Time Access