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Interview with Padmasree Warrior April 23, 2008

Posted by chetan in : AORTA, Carriers, 3G, Mobile Advertising, US Wireless Market, Mobile Content, Mobile Entertainment, WiMax, European wireless market, Mobile Applications, Worldwide Wireless Market, Mobile Ecosystem, Wi-Fi, Wireless Value Chain, 4G , 1 comment so far

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Last year, I had a chance to interview Padmasree Warrior who was CTO of Motorola at the time and since then she has moved on to Cisco (as their CTO). The interview was conducted for the PiTech Magazine but for various delays the print edition never got released. I am publishing the interview in its entirety for our readers. Padmasree is a terrific technology leader and there are a lot of good insights in her answers.

1. What are some of the exciting initiatives you and your team are working on at Motorola?

The next decade is about the Mobile Revolution. It is quite remarkable how something as simple as the cell phone is transforming the human race by connecting the entire planet. Today almost half the planet communicates via a mobile device. The social, economic, cultural and technological implications of this are profound, particularly in under-developed countries of the world. The Motorola team is working on delivering products and experiences to enable “Seamless Mobility” which is our vision to enable access to communication, information and entertainment whenever, wherever and however people need it.

For example, recently we announced the world’s first wind and solar commercial network GSM cell site in Namibia. By incorporating renewable energy technology into this cell site, we created a cost-effective solution for operators in the region who find fuel generators too costly and don’t want to wait a long time for a main grid connection. Most importantly, we’ve created the infrastructure for people to be able to communicate with each other. That’s powerful and exciting.

2. What will the mobile device in 2012 look and feel like? What new features and functionality will be introduced by then?

The mobile device in 2012 will become an extension of your persona. In other words, it will know your preference, know where you are and will understand the context of what you need. This will simplify how people access communication, information and entertainment. For example, the mobile device will be your computer, wallet, TV, camera, music player, FM radio, alarm clock, flash light, calendar, game system and so on. By 2012 the mobile device will become your remote control for life.

3. How does “Always On” environment change how media and entertainment will evolve over the course of next five years? What does digital convergence mean to you?

The on-demand genie is out of the bottle and there is no way it is going back in. This fundamental shift in consumers’ expectations of being able to watch video when they want is having profound impact on nearly every technology component of every network that is capable of delivering a moving series of images . . . LANs, WANs and wireless.

I see convergence not as technology-driven, but experience driven. Convergence is the mobilization, socialization and personalization of content and communications…the technologies are being driven by the desired experiences. This is how Motorola researchers are going about their thinking. With deep expertise across mobile devices, home networking components, set-tops and next-generation networks, Motorola is focused on creating an integrated experience network topology that will excite the consumers and grow business for every player in the new media ecosystem.

4. If you were advising entrepreneurs, which problems would you advise them to tackle? Where is the most innovation needed? What are some of the problems that our industry hasn’t solved? What’s holding us back?

There are many problems to be solved, some are technological and others regulatory. I will answer this question more from a technological perspective. My advice to entrepreneurs is to focus on value added applications for the mobile platform that has many constraints such as battery life, screen size etc. Just forcing the internet designed for a PC onto the mobile device will not work. We need to think about innovation in areas of internet mobility, content mobility and broadband mobility. Areas of particular challenge are power management and battery life. Another exciting opportunity is to think about how this device may be used, when Wireless Broadband becomes a reality with WiMax. I don’t think anything is holding us back. I am an optimist – I believe the human mind can solve most problems. The scale of the mobile revolution is so massive that innovation will occur at many levels both in developed and emerging markets simultaneously.

5. At Java One you talked about Platform Disturbia. How do we solve the problem (or ease the pain) of industry fragmentation at multiple levels? Or is it a fact of life?

“Platform Disturbia” which is my anecdotal way of describing the fragmentation in the mobile industry can be a great opportunity for developers, but brings with it significant challenges. As content and communications go mobile - How does one move content easily and transcode it from one format to another? How does one set the hooks between different networks and mobile devices so the hand off is seamless? With personalization, where should the authentication and personalization engines be located - on the mobile device or on backend servers? Should context and location awareness work with authentication; how much should they reveal and to whom?

It is hard enough dealing with the sheer number of different mobile handsets, screens and separate operating systems. Now we want those devices to talk effortlessly with enterprise infrastructures - to enable secure communications and data sharing with field service people. We want to extend into the home and be able to upload and download content automatically from set top boxes. And deliver a whole new generation of location and context-based services that will make mobile devices even more personal and interactive.

The way to ease the pain of industry fragmentation is through the adoption of standards and for large innovative companies to be transparent about intellectual property rather than extract high royalty rates for patented technologies. The former accelerates time to market and therefore expands market creation with a unified approach. Of course, companies must protect their intellectual property and get fair, reasonable payment for their patent rights. However, often fragmentation occurs when competing technologies are created to avoid high royalty taxation.

The mobile world is a huge and divergent ecosystem where innovation needs all of us to be both visionary and pragmatic - so that we can move to Platform Utopia!

6. India’s wireless market has been exploding at a rapid pace. Could you please discuss the role of wireless communications in India’s economy? What role does India play in the global wireless market?

Yes, the wireless communications market is certainly growing very rapidly in India – nearly every global manufacturer has production and research presence in the country. India adds almost 6 million subscribers every month – that is equivalent to connecting the entire country of Denmark in India every month!

This rapid adoption of mobile communications will have a positive impact on economic empowerment over the long run. This is already starting to happen in other emerging markets. For example, merchants in Zambia use mobile phones for banking. Health workers in S. Africa use them to update records while visiting patients. In Tanzania fishermen use mobile phones to get market, weather and the price of fish while still off shore. Already mobile connectivity is generating big economic benefits according to a London Business School study. The study says that in a typical developing country, a rise of 10 mobile phones per 100 people boosts GDP growth rate by 0.6%. That may not seem much but compounded over a few years it adds up to a substantive increase in the standard of living

India plays a critical role in the global wireless market because the scale of people yet to be connected is large. This demand will become a hotbed for creativity and innovation. When we connect the billions of people, we will see new use cases with mobility. Looking forward, the opportunity in India and support of the government is quite strong. The Indian government has set the target of 500 million subscribers by 2010.

7. How do you manage uncertainty? How do you keep the team of 26,000 focused and motivated?

Managing uncertainty is exactly what innovation is all about. Not knowing the answers, taking risks, disrupting the status quo and challenging conventional wisdom are necessary ingredients to invent and innovate. As inventors, it is our responsibility to think beyond the possible and break barriers to create the never before imagined solution.

However, with this creativity comes the need of one shared vision. At Motorola, our shared vision is of a world in which communications transcends the barriers of space and time to deliver an on-demand consumer experience – what we call seamless mobility. It is this vision that connects our work and keeps our 26,000 focused on one end goal.

Most importantly, I surround myself with very smart people – individuals who are not only experts in their fields, but also possess strong business acumen blended with an entrepreneurial spirit to succeed. It is tough to find people like that, but ultimately people are the backbone of an organization, they are the catalysts for growth and success. Leadership is not about YOU but them – the teams you lead. My advice is to leaders – be humble and don’t be afraid to hire talent that is better than you.

  1. How do you keep up with all the information and technology evolution around you? You have your own blog; do you have some favorites that you read regularly?

I stay connected – to people and information. I read just about anything and everything that comes my way, it is almost addictive. I also spend a lot of time meeting customers, visiting universities across the world, chatting with students - all the way from elementary to post doctoral and interacting with industry thought leaders. This has exposed me to some truly remarkable individuals from all fields. Recently while in San Francisco, Dr. Jill Tarter invited me to the SETI Institute where I met with some brilliant astronomers and scientists and gained a unique perspective on their contributions and achievements.

I also stay connected to information - from blogs to technical papers to trade journals to books, there is always something fascinating that sparks my interest (and keeps me busy on those long cross-Atlantic flights!). Yes, I have my own blog called “Bits at the Edge” - http://blogs.motorola.com/author/padmasree-warrior/. I read many blogs and enjoy the perspective of different bloggers, whether they agree with my opinions or not.

  1. What are the key ingredients of a strategy to outsmart competition?

I always say a Vision without a plan is just a Dream. The key to success is Think Big and Act Fast. Focus on delivering value by solving relevant problems.

10. How can technology companies better understand the needs of customers?

It may sound simple but I would say that we could better understand the needs of customers by being better listeners - especially earlier in the product development cycle. As corporations grow, it is easy to get stifled by what is going inside our own walls and forget to open the doors in the early stages of concepts, to understand the pulse of the marketplace.

At Motorola, we are shifting our focus to delivering enhanced experiences to our customers. Similarly, our research efforts stay focused on discovering the problems of tomorrow and then creating solutions to solve these problems.

Let’s take the example of the original RAZR – our researchers perceived that consumers were in search of a phone that would fit in their shirt pocket; our scientists then brainstormed and developed the solution of an embedded antenna that allowed for a slimmer form.

11. How do you manage work-life balance?

I actually dislike the word “balance” in this context, because it conjures up images of conflict. My work is an integral part of my life and so are my family, my community, my friends and my self. I prefer to think of this more as an integration challenge. I have one life in which I must INTEGRATE each of these. Therefore, it is not important HOW we decide to apportion the time spent on each of these because there is no right answer. The challenge is to COPE with the guilt that comes with however we choose to spend time on each of these. Over the years, I have tried not to feel guilty about things that I am unable to do, but rather enjoy the experiences of what I am able to do. Recently I had to miss our senior leadership strategy session, instead I chose to attend my son’s middle school commencement where he received a President honor award. I had a blast being a proud mom that evening.

12. You are an inspiration to many. Who inspires you? Who has been your role model(s) and why?

Mother Teresa continues to be an inspiration to me. I do not see her just as a martyr but as a pioneer and a bold risk taker. She looked at the world holistically and her work broke down barriers – race, color, ability, wealth and economic status. She left her home country and comfort zone to improve the lives of the poorest of the poor.

13. Who are some people you would really like to meet with that you haven’t been able to meet yet?

Restricting my wishes to people that are living, I would like to meet Nelson Mandela who single handedly and irreversibly influenced the course of apartheid in the world. I would also like to meet Scott Adams – I Iove Dilbert!

14. What’s the last book that you read that really made a difference in your life?

The Alchemist – poetic style of prose that is thought provoking, makes you pause.

15. What are some of your favorite memories of being at IIT?

Dating my then boyfriend (now husband), all night chat sessions in the dorm room, the perennial hikes to street cafes at odd hours in search of chai (tea) that had nothing at all to do with drinking tea per se, heated debates about everything from solving world hunger to cutting classes the next day.

CTIA Wireless Wave - Moving Targets April 21, 2008

Posted by chetan in : AORTA, Carriers, Mobile Advertising, US Wireless Market, Mobile Entertainment, Indian Wireless market, ARPU, European wireless market, Mobile Applications, Worldwide Wireless Market, Mobile Ecosystem, Wireless Value Chain, CTIA , add a comment

The Wireless Wave article on Mobile Advertising is online now

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Moving Targets: Mobile Marketing Reaches Consumers on Their Terms
                                                                                 By Lynn Thorne

Imagine you’re about to meet a blind date for drinks. On the way to the restaurant you realize you’re short on cash. You don’t know your way around the city too well – how will you find the nearest ATM? The answer is as convenient as glancing at your cell phone.

Or you’re driving to meet a new client and you have just enough time to make the meeting. Suddenly your phone sounds an alert letting you know there’s a traffic jam ahead – just in time for you to take an alternate route and arrive on time.

Perhaps you live in an area where severe weather outbreaks are the norm. You get a message on your phone urging you to take cover, as you are smack in the path of an oncoming twister. Did a concerned co-worker call you with the warning? No, The Weather Channel Interactive sent you an urgent message on your handset.

To some these stories sound like science fiction, but to a growing number of those in the know, these are the proven, and very real abilities of mobile marketing and advertising. And while consumers have been using SMS, or short messaging service, for years, the future of mobile is about to take off faster than you can text “ASAP.”

Wide Open World
Mobile marketing and mobile advertising have been flourishing in other parts of the world since the early part of this century. In Japan, for instance, two factors uniquely helped the explosive growth of this industry: networks and teamwork. Ironically, those same two factors are part of what has delayed mobile commerce in the U.S.

“The penetration of broadband wireless, which is 70 to 80 percent in Japan, is only about 20 percent in the U.S.,” says to industry analyst Chetan Sharma,president of CSC, a consulting and advisory firm helping companies in the mobile and voice communications sector. Sharma points out that in Japan and Korea, mobile carriers and the advertising industry have collaborated and joined ventures to form companies to address mobile marketing and advertising. “But in the U.S.,” Sharma says, “carriers have their own strategy, and advertisers have their own strategy. They’re not working together.”

Yet the U.S. is the biggest advertising market in the world, and it appears that the nation is on the verge of a mobile marketing breakthrough. Sharma claims it is only a matter of time before the country comes into its own in the m-commerce arena. “A lot of the problems existing today will be solved because advertisers are eager to reach consumers. Even though Japan and Korea got started with mobile advertising before the U.S., the aggressiveness of the advertisers pursuing it is greater in this country.”

Applications
M-commerce has innumerable uses, some of which haven’t even been thought of yet. However, it is already being used in some fascinating ways. Roughly half of the mobile consumers in Korea and Japan use their phones like a credit card of sorts. Near Field Communication (NFC) technology enables them to pay for purchases by waving their cell phone over a contactless reader at retailers. They can even download coupons to their phones and then forward the discounts to other users in their networks.

While that technology hasn’t yet reached America, U.S. users are benefitting from mobile marketing in myriad ways. For example, Crisp Wireless partners with media entertainment companies like USA Today to enable them to build a mobile presence through advertising. USA Today, one of the pioneers of delivering traditional newspaper content in a mobile platform, launched its initial site in December of 2005. Boris Fridman, CEO of Crisp Wireless, calls it “nothing short of the perfect mobile destination.” Fridman explains why: “They started building this significant consumer audience, and advertisers started paying attention to it. They’ve done a tremendous job at understanding that mobile Internet would become a driver for advertising dollars. For USA Today, it is no longer an experiment; it is clearly a significant business opportunity.”

AOL, another early adopter, has capitalized on the mobile commerce opportunity as well. In 2007, the company updated its portal for a richer user interface, including AOL mobile search, City Guide, access to AIM (the largest ing the platforms available, AOL has concen-trated on making mobile simple for consumers.

“We do things that make accessing our services easier, not necessarily making the mobile phone easier to use,” says Jason Gruber, director of Mobile and Telecommunications for AOL. Some examples include getting MapQuest information on the desktop transferred to a phone with a ‘send to cell’ functionality, where the user enjoys one-click access to MapQuest details. AOL was the first to introduce an I.M. forwarding service, so messages sent to a user’s desktop can be forwarded to his or her handset. “So it’s not only at the application level where we’re constantly making adjustments to the portal, but we’re really responding to the consumer base, [making sure] that the services consumers are comfortable with on the desktop can really work in the mobile space in an easy and fast way that’s relevant,” says Gruber.

Location-based service, in concert with GPS, enables companies to provide a context to their content. The Weather Channel Interactive, for example, has more than 35 million unique online users each month. It can deliver current conditions, expert forecasts, and relevant lifestyle content for 98,000 locations worldwide, so consumers in California are getting information that is specific to the west coast, while Michigan residents can be apprised of impending lake effect snows.

Since the younger generation drives a lot of the growth of mobile marketing, MTV is enjoying phenomenal increases in its mobile platforms. Greg Clayman, executive vice president of Digital Distribution and Business Development, Global Digital Media of MTV, says video is a prime example. “We’re doing five million mobile video clips a month in the U.S. That is nearly double what they were last year.” Beyond video clips, MTV’s mobile inventory includes linear video service, with clips of mobile video with DSE, and live programming of Comedy Central and Nickelodeon on V-cast.

The applications benefit the marketer as well as the consumer because ads can be much more user-specific. With browser-based advertising, ZIP codes are themain way to reach a particular audience segment. With mobile mar-keting and advertising, advertisers can utilize mobile instant messaging community) and information like gender, income, and other MapQuest, among others. Beyond imply maklimited profile data – all provided to wireless carriers by the user – to truly target the consumers most likely to respond.

Challenges and Solutions
It is easy to envision mobile marketing and advertising as an extension of the Internet, and in many ways, it is. However, there are fundamental differences that will affect the success of this new channel.

For example, advertisers cannot just expect the same ad to work on a PC and a mobile device. The huge difference in screen sizes means most ads won’t translate from one entity to another. Keyboard capabilities are also vastly different between computers and handsets.

AOL’s Gruber points out another challenge: fragmentation. “The application or service that we develop for a very simple low-end phone on one network may behave very differently and function differently than what exists on a very high-end phone.” To combat this problem, AOL has announced a client version of “My Mobile” that will make implementing AOL services on a mobile device a lot easier, no matter what kind of handset or carrier is used.

Chetan Sharma says search-based advertising has to change for mobile marketing to succeed. “On mobile devices, you have limited real estate. People are looking for answers, not thousands of facts. It becomes tricky in terms of how you figure out what the intent of the user is, so there is not so much room for error in mobile as there is for the Internet.”

There is also the challenge of demographics: plenty of industry research points to the younger generations as being the main mobile users. However, today’s device is not your teen’s mobile phone.

“Over the past few years, Newsweek, USA Today, Car and Driver, Elle, and many other traditional media companies that don’t necessarily appeal to the very young have launched mobile destinations,” says Fridman. “They appeal to a much broader audience.”

Louis Gump, vice president of Mobile at The Weather Channel Interactive, says the age limitations aren’t real. “There is a myth in the industry that everyone who uses their device for something other than talking on it is about 22 years old with a backpack. If you look at the demos, based on some of the research, what you’ll see is that the majority of the audience that uses wireless data is actually in the 25-34, and 35-44 demo with tails on either side. It’s a very attractive audience with millions of people who are in multiple demographic areas.”

Perhaps one of the biggest obstacles is the consumers themselves. Will they balk at the idea of advertising on their mobile devices as being too intrusive? Clayman predicts acceptance.
“As the mobile online experience begins to look more like the Web we’re accustomed to, consumers expect a certain degree of advertising. As long as it is something that is actually useful, people will think, ‘I see ads when I’m online or when I’m watching TV so there’s no reason I shouldn’t see them on my phone as well.’”

Besides, Clayman points out, consumers are already paying for the content they get on their mobile devices. Ads can help offset the increasing costs. “If a carrier has video clips the consumer pays for that, and if you want to double the amount of content consumers can get, you’ve got limited options. Either the carrier can pay for it and lose money, or they can charge consumers more. Mobile advertising in general can subsidize that.”

Would people be willing to pay more for their mobile services instead of seeing ads on their devices? Probably not, but experts say they will likely accept some advertising in exchange for reduced-cost service. “If they are able to decide what kind of ads they get and when they get them, consumers will be more willing to accept [mobile advertising],” says Sharma.

Growing Pains and Plans
Experts agree that for mobile marketing and advertising to be as successful as possible, the user must be in control. Gump says careful planning is key.

“From a consumer-facing standpoint, we have an opportunity as media companies, wire-less carriers, and other service providers in the industry, to get this right. We need to put the customer first. From an industry standpoint, we need to think about how our actions today will affect where we’re going to be 10 years from now and act accordingly.”

Analyst Sharma agrees. “We need to make sure that the market matures correctly and that the business models are ironed out before the market becomes too big. It’s a journey of cautious optimism to contextual nirvana.”

That journey, while in its infancy, is well underway. As companies branch out and try new forms of mobile marketing – everything from American Idol’s interactive audience voting via text message to The Weather Channel Interactive’s use of location-based services – the industry is poised to take off.
“This is just the beginning,” says Fridman. “There are about 40 million consumers that visit mobile sites monthly, which represents about 15 percent of the subscriber base. But every month that audience continues to grow. This is an incredible growth opportunity for companies who want to reach the consumers, because that number will only continue to go up.”

And those companies are taking notice. “I’ve seen an uptake in the integration of mobile advertising by the brands and the agencies in the marketplace that has really impressed me,” Gruber says. “The way those budgets have grown, the way the brands are coming back for repeat business … I’m really looking forward to 2008 being a breakout year for mobile marketing and mobile advertising.”

CTIA Wireless 2008 Roundup April 4, 2008

Posted by chetan in : AORTA, Carriers, Enterprise Mobility, Speaking Engagements, M&A, 3G, Devices, Mobile Advertising, US Wireless Market, Mobile Content, Mobile Entertainment, Mergers and Acquisitions, International Trade, Location based Services, MVNO, Indian Wireless market, BRIC, WiMax, Mobile Gaming, ARPU, Japan wireless market, European wireless market, Mobile TV, Mobile Applications, Smart Phone, Worldwide Wireless Market, Mobile Ecosystem, Speech Recognition, Mobile Search, Wi-Fi, Wireless Value Chain, 4G, CTIA , 2 comments

CTIA Wireless 2008 Roundup

http://www.chetansharma.com/ctiawireless.htm

The Sin City hosted CTIA Wireless 2008 earlier this week. On Wednesday morning, just before leaving for the convention center, I caught some portion of Ben Bernanke’s congressional testimony on the US economy woes. Few minutes later, strolling the show floor, talking to various companies, and hearing the keynotes, it seemed like I was on a different planet. Either someone failed to deliver the memo or the wireless industry is resilient enough to weather the turmoil in the financial and housing markets with some ease. The show was bigger with more attendees, the booths were returning to their glamorous heydays of the past, and the general buzz and energy at the show all seem to indicate the industry is going to do just fine and is primed for further growth. The general themes were around open network and access, user experience, and bandwidth.

This note summarizes our impressions from the show.

CTIA Wireless in Pictures

First let’s do the numbers: CTIA released their semi-annual statistics on the US market. In summary: For 2007, $23B in data revenues, 2 trillion in MOU, $139B in total service revenues, 48B txt messages/month. (We released our US Market and Global Market updates last month)

Keynotes: In terms of style, Sir Richard Branson stole the show with his pompous exuberance and pep talk (the talk of imaginary flight to Mars was hilarious; investors in Microgin and Viroo must be upset). For substance, Marco Boerries, President, Yahoo Mobile gave a nice compact overview of Yahoo initiatives and products in the market which are pretty darn good. (Marco wrote an opinion piece for our Mobile Advertising Book – “The future of Advertising is in the Consumers’ Pockets”). Yahoo has sewn together a number of deals worldwide that gives them a potential reach of over 600M users.

Vodafone is one operator which has been quite vocal in stating its positions on future infrastructure roadmap and data opportunities. Arun Sarin is probably the only CEO of major global operator who has publicly stated that Mobile Advertising will constitute a significant portion of their revenues in the coming days (Arun’s point person on the initiative Richard Saggers also wrote an opinion piece for our book “Opportunities for Mobile Advertising.” Let me know if you are interested in reading these two opinion pieces).

Microsoft’s Robbie Bach had the tough task of following the Branson-fest. He announced the arrival of a full-blown browser (finally!) for windows mobile. Also, the new windows mobile device from Sony Ericsson (Xperia) looks pretty darn cool. FCC Chairman Martin announced the rejection of Skype petition on the carterphone principle (to Skype’s dismay, it was not an April fool’s joke). Clearly, the definition of “open” is in the eye of the beholder. It means different things to different people. It has also been clear from the various activities and keynotes that the industry is trying its utmost to remain a “Self-regulated” industry and stay away from the clutches of eager politicians.

Lowell McAdam, CEO of Verizon Wireless conducted a panel with CEOs from Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, and Nortel and probed them on the 4G migration path, trends in applications and services, and contrasts in adoption and introduction of new technology in various parts of the world. Final day was marked by what is now becoming a trend - keynotes from politicians. This time around Sen. Edwards and Sen. Thompson graced the podium.

Mobile Advertising: In talking with numerous players in the value chain from small developers to large operators to ad networks to media companies, the impression was that things have matured over the last six months. It was gratifying to hear that some companies are adopting strategies and recommendations we propose in our book. Still, some of the basic problems remain – majority of the inventory remain unsold indicating weak demand, CPM rates are still over-rated though they are starting to come down, and fragmentation continues to remain an issue.

The good news is that the size of the mobile campaign budgets are getting bigger with several seven figure RFPs floating around. While some companies are still trying to throw a lot at the wall in the hope that something sticks, others are maturing as companies and are more focused in their positioning and product roadmaps. Integration of various channels is starting to appear on the horizon and the integration with the publishers is becoming tighter. The issue of measurement and auditing standards remains a big issue and unfortunately not much progress to report. There are carrier initiatives and various industry bodies are taking the challenge to rally the ecosystem, but, frankly, consolidation of such efforts is necessary, we can’t afford yet another layer of fragmentation in an already complex ecosystem.

We were interviewed on Mobile Advertising prior to the show by several publications. Some of the articles were published this week to coincide with CTIA

Wireless Wave (CTIA) – Moving Targets: Mobile marketing reaches consumers on their terms by Lynn Thorne

BrandWeek – Mobile Marketing – Fantasy vs. Reality by Ken Hein

Wall Street Journal – Personalized promotions: Sending the right ads to your phone – Peggy Anne Salz

NFC: There were many more NFC-enabled devices on display this time and vendors were talking and demoing NFC and Biometrics based payment solutions. While there are handsets on the roadmap, this market is still very nascent in North America and Western Europe.

Inspiration: The inspiration for new and creative services still comes (at least for yours truly) from Japan (and Korea). I love spending time in DoCoMo’s booth for it gives a glimpse into what’s to come. No other company better understands the development of devices, services and applications that overlay on lifestyles than DoCoMo (e.g. a wellness handset that is a pedometer, heart rate monitor, body and bad breath monitor and yes, you can make voice calls too). They view wireless air-interfaces as nothing more than enablers to solutions that enhance daily lives. Various device manufacturers also displayed some really cool devices. The quality and diversity of handsets that have been introduced into the global markets over the last four quarters is just astonishing. The cycle of innovation and time-to-market keeps on accelerating.

Femto Cells: A number of players like Airwalk, Airvana, and others are bringing Femto cell solutions to the market and carriers are starting to pull this into their strategy as well and look forward to deployments beyond the trials.

4G: LTE vs. WiMAX (vs. UMB): Since the decision of Vodafone and Verizon to support LTE, UMB has been disappearing from the discussion. The 4G discussion is convulsing around LTE and WiMAX now (though Nortel did indicate its support TD-SCDMA as a 4G candidate). Without a doubt the operator community is rallying behind LTE and there might be an opportunity to finally converge to a single standard (haven’t we seen this movie before) but frankly, the advances in silicon to integrate multiple radios has made the standards debate less relevant. WiMAX has forced acceleration of LTE standardization process but is starting to lose its time (and cost) advantage. All eyes are on Sprint’s XOHM business rollouts in the coming days and months.

Accessories: I have never seen so many accessory and reseller outfits at a CTIA show. Business must be booming.

Best Booth: Thought there were several good layouts, LG and Samsung continue to impress with their creativity and “art of marketing.”

Developer and Publisher woes: Along with John Philips (Astraware) and Peter Baldwin (Cellmania), I helped facilitate a few developer session at the Mobile Jam Session organized by WIP. The issues of distribution, discovery, and monetization remain challenging for the small developers worldwide. Even with million user base, they are finding it difficult to monetize but we did discuss a number of success stories. The core elements of success that emerged from the discussion were: choosing the right market, embedding viral component into everything you throw out there, there is no room for mediocrity, and personalizing and customizing go a long way to get traction. An interesting tidbit: the number of page views for mobile MySpace app is a magnitude higher on off-deck vs. ondeck. Several of the companies are trying mobile advertising with varying degrees of success. After spending 4 hours with the developers, I sat on a carrier panel discussing mobile advertising. The contrast between the two worlds was so apparent. Clearly, more needs to be done to help both sides understand each other a bit better.

Green CTIA: There is a stronger emphasis on recycling and contributing to save the environment. The show itself is a big resource hog, so every bit helps.

Alternate Mobile Devices: The universe of alternate devices is expanding. Companies are buying wholesale data packages from the operators and integrating broadband chipsets into hardware to do digital signage (ICG), M2M (Sensorlogic), PND and much more. The definition of being “mobile” keeps on changing.

On Being “Open”: Obviously, given the recent activity around openness, getting a penny for each time the word was uttered by a speaker would have paid off for a lifetime of CTIA trips. While talk is cheap, demonstrable progress is being made by the likes Yahoo, Apple (btw, 3G iPhone is on its way), and AOL.

Another MVNO experiences turmoil: Movida - a Spanish focused MVNO which has garnered almost 300K subs filed for chapter 11.

Voice is becoming mainstream: With the product launches from Nuance, SpinVox, Vlingo, Jott, Yahoo, and many others, voice based navigation and its tighter integration with data services is becoming mainstream.

Where are the opportunities? Last week, I was moderating a panel with executives from AOL Mobile, T-Mobile, Motricity, and Formotus and the themes that emerged were around platform play, user experience, and productivity. At CTIA, in addition to these areas, there was a lot of discussion around social networking (though the market is being saturated with the MoSo noise). It is also clear that we are moving into the phase of “aggregation of fragmentation” with initiatives from Yahoo, AOL, and Google dominating the landscape.

Home Screen Effect: I have been talking about using the home screen for driving data usage for the last 8 years. I think we will see good innovation this year on that front starting with Yahoo’s One Platform. There are several other initiatives in the works where operators and OEMs will be deploying frameworks and technologies to bring information to a “click-less” idle screen environment.

Overall, no major news but industry stays vibrant, healthy, and exciting.

Your feedback is always welcome.

Chetan Sharma

Disclosure: Some of the companies mentioned in this note are our clients.

Global Wireless Data Market Update 2007 March 27, 2008

Posted by chetan in : AORTA, Infrastructure, Carriers, Security, Speaking Engagements, M&A, 3G, Partnership, Devices, Mobile Advertising, US Wireless Market, Mobile Content, Mobile Entertainment, Mergers and Acquisitions, Location based Services, MVNO, Indian Wireless market, India, BRIC, WiMax, Mobile Gaming, Networks, ARPU, Japan wireless market, European wireless market, Mobile TV, mobile users, Mobile Applications, Worldwide Wireless Market, Mobile Usability, Mobile Ecosystem, Speech Recognition, Mobile Search, Wi-Fi, Wireless Value Chain, 4G, CTIA , 7 comments

Global Wireless Data Market Update 2007

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http://www.chetansharma.com/globalmarketupdate2007.htm

As you read this End of Year (EOY) 2007 Global Wireless Data Market update this week, somewhere in India, a new subscription will catapult India over the US as the number 2 global wireless market. 2007 was a banner year for global wireless data market. The global service revenues for the year touched $700 billion, the data service revenues were more than $120 billion, China signed its 500 millionth subscription, and both India (in feb 08) and the US crossed the 250 million subscription mark. 2007 continued to enhance mobile data’s role in the operator ecosystem with approx 17% of the revenue is coming from data services.

For some leading operators, data is now contributing up to 35% of the revenues however increase in data ARPU is not completely offsetting the drop in voice ARPU. From the true and tested SMS messaging to new services such as Mobile TV, Enterprise apps, and others, different services helped in adding billions to the revenues generated for 2007. Japan and Korea remain the envy of the global markets and the countries to study and learn from w.r.t. new services and applications. The US market has been steadily making strong comeback and for the first time exceeded Japan in service revenue generated from mobile data.

Chetan Sharma Consulting conducted its semiannual study on the global mobile data industry. We studied wireless data trends in over 40 major countries - from developed and mature markets such as Japan, Korea, UK, and Italy to hyper growth markets such as China and India. This note summarizes the findings from the research.

Your feedback is always welcome.

Chetan Sharma

Disclosure: Some of the companies mentioned in this note are our clients.

Recap of Mobile Advertising Events - Stanford and Seattle March 22, 2008

Posted by chetan in : AORTA, Carriers, Middleware, Speaking Engagements, M&A, Mobile Advertising, US Wireless Market, Mobile Content, Mobile Entertainment, Indian Wireless market, Mobile Gaming, ARPU, Mobile TV, Mobile Applications, Worldwide Wireless Market, Mobile Usability, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Search, Wireless Value Chain , add a comment

This week I had the opportunity to moderate two distinguished panels on Mobile Advertising in two days, one at Stanford University and the other one in Seattle. This post summarizes the issues and points discussed during these two sessions.

Stanford University by Mobile Momentum

The first one was part our book tour and was organized by Mobile Momentum, an organization lead by Prof. Tom Kosnik and his student Mohit Gundecha. The event was sponsored by three of the pioneers in Mobile Advertising space - AdInfuse, Admob, and Rhythm New Media. My co-author Victor Melfi and I walked through some of the salient points of our book. We discussed the history of advertising, the digital revolution of the Internet, delved a bit into the definition of mobile advertising, the challenges and accelerators of this nascent industry, pondered over the business models, illustrated some of the successes using the case studies and our five-points framework (reach, engagement, targeting, viral, and transactions), briefly touched on the technology issues and gave our 2c on what it will take for the industry to go from its current state of “cautious optimism” to promise of “contextual nirvana.” Some of the key points were:

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Our talk was followed by a panel discussion with Ujjal Kohli, CEO, Rhythm New Media, Tony Nethercutt, VP, Admob, and David Staas, VP, AdInfuse. All these guys have had distinguished careers in mobile, advertising, and digital evolution of our industry and hence the depth of knowledge on the panel was just great. Each of them has had successes with campaigns around the world, not just in North America. Admob with its billions of impressions every few weeks has blazed the way in the off-deck world. Rhythm has been quite successful with advertising with mobile video snacking at 3 in UK.

AdInfuse has been running some interesting campaigns in Europe like with Swisscom.They were achieving 8% CTR on WAP banner campaigns, 50% of users who clicked through to the WAP landing page completed a purchase. Recall rates were as high as 27%, more than 80% of the users rated the model of “free video content in return of advertising” positively vs. 2% who didn’t like the idea. Rhythm has also experienced similar numbers with their 3 UK campaigns. It is remarkable that 40% of the subscriber base is using the service and one can still watch the ad subsidized videos even if they have run out of prepaid minutes. The reach provided by Admob to its advertisers is phenomenal. Coca-cola’s campaign touched 125 countries. We cover Rhythm’s and Admob’s case studies in more detail in our book as well.

We touched on a wide variety of topics and I was struck by something that Ujjal said. He was previously CMO of AirTouch Cellular so brings in a very unique perspective to the table. He said, “For the carrier, No amount of Mobile Advertising Revenue is worth the risk of losing a customer.” The issues around privacy, customer satisfaction, customer care costs are critical for an operator to assess as they dive deeper into this new emerging medium.

There are a number of developers who are interested in exploiting the opportunity of mobile advertising but don’t want to deal with the complexity of the ecosystem and ad networks. There is an opportunity for some of the existing players to open up the APIs to broaden the reach.

Seattle by TiE

Next day, TiE Seattle organized a panel discussing “Mobile Advertising: Making the most of the next generation in advertising.” The panelists were Scott Silk, CEO, ActionEngine, Brian Lent, CEO, Medio Systems, Eric Hertz, CEO, Zumobi, Jeff Giard, Director, Alltel, and Jason Guenther, Director, Disney. Again, a pretty diverse panel representing various players in the value chain.

I started by probing the panelists on how we go about defining “Mobile Advertising.” Brian, not surprisingly, thought Mobile Search is going to take a lion share of the revenues just like how things evolved in the online world. Eric and Scott articulated their view around On-Device Portals, Widgets, and User Experience. Action Engine has been having good success with many of the large media brands such as MSNBC and WSJ while Zumobi has come out with a platform that takes user experience at the center of its strategy.

Though at number 5, Alltel has been introducing innovations quicker than some of its peers. Its Celltop application is yielding significant results with over 400% increase in usage if the application is within Celltop framework. Next, they are going to be putting the Celltop as a Home Screen (Idle Screen) app like what Koreans and Japanese have been doing for some time. It was refreshing for Jeff to right away state that this industry is not going to move forward if we don’t solve the “fragmentation” problem. I have said before that “Fragmentation is the biggest enemy of the mobile industry” and w/o solving the issues of fragmentation at different layers, we won’t get into the hypergrowth mode that will take the industry from $2B today to $20B in five years. Jeff thought that mobile advertising presents significant opportunities for the industry including the carriers but we need to be mindful of the issues around privacy, customer care, and customer satisfaction.

Disney is world’s premier consumer brand and very few companies understand the three screens better than Disney. Jason’s perspective on how mobile fits into the larger picture was an important one. He views mobile as a critical channel for any content company but reminded that a lot of work needs to be done in terms of standardization, metrics, auditing, and  privacy before mobile advertising becomes a thriving industry.

In both places, audience was well informed and highly engaged. Questions ranged from business models to technology intricacies. People didn’t think some of the newer MVNO models like that from Blyk will last too long and that for the trends will different for different geographies. For example, in emerging markets, mobile is going to be the only means to bring digital advertising to the masses, a point we make in our book as well. Will high-end phones be free subsidized by advertising as Eric Schmidt had proclaimed, well, don’t bet your life on it, at least not just yet though if someone like Google makes up its mind, it can, as Victor says, “make the market.”

I really enjoyed engaging with the panelists and the audience. Plenty of questions, we could have gone on for hours if not days. It was quite hectic but fun. Next week, I am moderating a panel “Mobile Mania - Show me the Money” at Washington Technology Industry Association and then facilitating a developer forum “Mobile Jam Session” at CTIA on 31st. On 24th April, I will be giving a class on Mobile Advertising at Stanford University (Prof. Kosnik’s course) and the same evening, I head to Sacramento to give a talk being organized by TechCoire on “Mobile Advertising: A $20B Opportunity?” In May, on the 13th, I will be in NY giving a talk on mobile advertising to the advertising executives, on 20th will be doing a book event being organized by CommNexus in San Diego, and on 21st will be moderating a panel discussion on the promise of mobile advertising at the highly regarded Future In Review Conference.

Hope to see some of you on these sojourns.

US Wireless Market Update - 4Q07 and 2007 March 10, 2008

Posted by chetan in : AORTA, Strategy, Carriers, M&A, 3G, Devices, Mobile Advertising, US Wireless Market, Mobile Content, Mobile Entertainment, Mergers and Acquisitions, Location based Services, MVNO, Indian Wireless market, India, BRIC, WiMax, Mobile Gaming, Japan wireless market, European wireless market, Mobile TV, Mobile Applications, Smart Phone, Worldwide Wireless Market, Mobile Usability, Mobile Ecosystem, Microsoft Mobile, Mobile Search, Wireless Value Chain, 4G , 3 comments

US Wireless Market Update - 4Q07 and 2007

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http://www.chetansharma.com/usmarketupdateq407.htm

The US wireless data market grew 55% in 2007 ending the year with $24.5 billion in data services revenues with 4Q yielding $6.9B. 2007 also saw significant industry milestones like: iPhone launch, US crossing 250 million subscriptions, 3G penetration in the US touching 25% subscriber base, consternation around 700 MHz spectrum auction, MediaFLO launch, Android launch, Nokia crossing 40% market share, WiMAX and Femto Cell trials, and much more. US almost equaled Japan in mobile data service revenues for the year (rounding error and currency fluctuation difference). With several significant launches coming up in 2008, US remains one of the most attractive wireless data markets.

Global update

          More details in our worldwide wireless data market update coming out later this month.

Your feedback is always welcome.

Chetan Sharma

Carnival of the Mobilists #114 March 9, 2008

Posted by chetan in : AORTA, Carriers, Mobile Advertising, US Wireless Market, Mobile Content, Mobile Entertainment, Indian Wireless market, BRIC, Mobile Gaming, European wireless market, Mobile Applications, Worldwide Wireless Market, Mobile Usability, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Search, Wireless Value Chain, CTIA , 7 comments

COM returns to AORTA. Welcome.

Over the past couple of quarters, the mobile industry has been pretty active with a series of initiatives, milestones, and launches and our fellow Mobilists from around the world bring you the analysis, insights, and commentary of the major events, new initiatives, gaffes and goofs, startup action and much more.

The best from the last week are:

Since June 07, Apple has been capturing the headlines like no other company in the ecosystem. Michael Mace at MobileOpportunity gives a thoughtful analysis of Apple’s iPhone SDK. Abhishek Tiwari and Tricia Duryee (at Moconews) also look at iPhone’s SDK and wonder if Apple is the new carrier? More SDK analysis by Gábor Török.

Ajit Jaokar, author and the yeoman at OpenGardens writes another insightful post, this time on “The significance of Google Gears on mobile devices” follow-up from this one.

Russell Buckley at Mobhappy talks about the “Uniqueness of the Mobile Channel” especially from an advertising perspective. Jamie Wells of Mobilestance which focuses on the US Mobile Marketing Perspectives provides insights into Buzzd, a company founded by Nihal Mehta of ipsh! fame. Nihal is well-versed with the mobile market and Jamie’s interview gives information on this new startup.

Peggy Salz at MSearchGroove provides some insightful commentary on the state of mobile search, mobile advertising and social media. She has a good podcast with Kate Edwards, CEO of Jentro Technologies.

Andreas Constantinou at Vision Mobile does a couple of brilliant posts on summarizing “Learnings from the MWC 08″ and lists his 10 predictions for MWC 09. Be sure to check out the Mobile Megatrends presentation as well.

Martin Sauter, author and curator of WirelessMoves opines on the overhyped battle between WiMAX and LTE. Media and analysts need some fights to keep things interesting :-)

Dean Bubley at Disruptive Analysis in his usual analytical style makes the case for dismantling the control over the SIM card and by association, the SIM distributors.

Dennis Bournique of WAP Review provides a detailed review of WebClip2Go a content clipping service for your mobile devices.

Paul Ruppert - the Zenmaestro at Mobile Messaging 2.0 ponders on “what it means to be mobile?”

David Cushman at Fast Future writes about Microblogging and how twitter is enticing him into getting his iPhone.

Finally, some details on the Mobile Jam Session at m-trends. It is being hosted by Caroline Lewko and Rudy De Waele at CTIA in Vegas on March 31st.

Be sure to participate next time. Andrew Grill hosts the next Carnival. Send in your entries to mobilists at gmail dot com. Until next time, happy mobile daze ahead.

Sampling Errors: "Pay attention to what I do, Not what I Say" February 7, 2008

Posted by chetan in : Mobile Advertising, US Wireless Market, Mobile Content, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Gaming, Japan wireless market, European wireless market, Mobile Applications, Worldwide Wireless Market, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Search, Wireless Value Chain , add a comment

The current primary season in the US provides an exciting time for both political junkies and the number junkies. The stats that have been pouring out from the contests is great data to analyze. It is also interesting to follow the polling of various contests and how on/off the mark they get from time to time. Polling is now getting to these ridiculous daily polls. I often wonder if there is anyone left in the country who hasn’t been polled.

There have been so many errors in the polls even in the ones that were taken a day before and the reasons for them are simple - it is primarily due to sampling errors. The pollsters made mistakes in accurately representing the likely-to-vote population. Some errors creep in due to people not accurately reflecting their choices or change their minds at the last minute.

Why am I talking about this? Similar survey and polls have relevance in the technology world especially in services and products that are consumer oriented. Many companies and service providers fall into the trap of “what consumers say they want.” I always had a feeling that people don’t always accurately reflect their choices either consciously or unconsciously. To prove this point, i looked at data to see the differences between the same user w.r.t. their explicit (what they say) and implicit (what they do) preferences and the results were quite revealing. Majority of the people (80%+) don’t always do what they say - meaning they might indicate that one band is their top choice but their actions reveal something totally different. Also, their preferences evolve and change over time so a survey done today will be outdated in 6 months for the same person.

We have a section in the book “Mobile Advertising” where I looked at some data provided by AgentArts (which got acquired by FAST which got acquired by Microsoft) and present my findings in the section “Pay attention to what i do, Not what i Say”

Always be careful about the data you gather and make sure it represents reality before you start analyzing and crafting strategies based on them.

GigaOM Column: What can wireless operators learn from politics? January 25, 2008

Posted by chetan in : Carriers, US Wireless Market, Mobile Entertainment, BRIC, Japan wireless market, European wireless market, Worldwide Wireless Market, Mobile Ecosystem, Wireless Value Chain , add a comment

My piece “What Can Wireless Operators Learn From Politics?” appears on GigaOM today. I am a numbers guy. The current primary tussle in the US inspired the article.

U.S. politics has entered the frenzied season of election primaries, complete with polls, debates, punches, counterpunches, analysis, paralysis, and so on. Each round brings with it an inordinate amount of data over which to pour, and makes number junkies like us draw conclusions that can be applied elsewhere. In fact, there are a number of lessons that wireless service providers — especially operators — can draw from successful political campaigns, specifically around microsegmentation, messaging and engagement.

Microsegmentation: In close contests, the campaigns that best understand the microdemographics almost always have an edge. The time spent building databases and gathering voter profile information that give insights into populace dynamics yields a significant tactical advantage as Election Day nears. The single biggest lesson for operators (and consumer businesses, for that matter) is end-user microsegmentation.

For the better part of the last decade, most operators primarily had two user segments — postpaid and prepaid. As Tomi Ahonen outlined in his book, “3G Marketing,” operators over the last few years have used common segmentation models to guide service offerings and marketing campaigns, such as those based on size (i.e. large corporations, SME, SOHO, residential customers), technology (i.e. 3G, EDGE, WAP, SMS, etc.) and billing. But such methods are woefully inadequate in our subscriber-saturated world, especially as services are increasingly personalized. We need to move from these handful of segments that are comprised of millions of subscribers to hundreds of segments whose number of subscribers range from 100 to 1000, and that help you model the preferences and behavior of the various population segments.

Each subgroup, or segment, has different characteristics — including demographics, lifestyles, work habits, social networks, preferences, product requirements and consumption habits — that could benefit from different product features or marketing approaches. Ultimately, these differences suggest that, rather than putting the soccer moms, Internet marrieds, impressionable elites, aspiring snipers and cricket fanatics in the same bucket, the greatest profitability may be achieved by developing multiple strategies to address the unique characteristics of each individual customer segment. The networked world allows one to focus on narrowly defined targets — often many at the same time. As Ian Ayers says in his book “Super Crunchers,” “Thinking-by-numbers is the new way to be smart.”

Messaging: Each provider has its own mass-market message: flat-out brand awareness ( “Can you hear me now?” – Verizon; “Don’t call it a phone” – Helio), emotional connection via communication (friendship – AIS, Thailand), broadband and network capability (3G – Maxis, Sprint, KDDI), application services (QR Code – NTT DoCoMo), phones (iPhone – AT&T), new plans (lifetime free – Reliance), or competitive advantage (Quad-play – Virgin Media; network coverage and quality – Telstra). As operators roll out new pricing plans or devices or applications, the messages are adapted to these initiatives, but they’re typically not targeted towards any particular segment of the demographics.

The goal is to reach the broadest market possible. However, messaging should go beyond that by adapting to microsegments of the subscriber base. Once segments have been identified and there’s a grasp of potential voters, good campaigns try to figure out how to best communicate their conversion message –- direct mail, phone call, neighbors, or a call from the candidate themselves — whatever will most quickly and effectively close the sale. Similarly, operators would do well to align their product offerings with demographics and adapt their message in a way that will make the biggest impact. Much of i-mode’s success, for example, can be traced to the fact that the service was initially targeted at teenage girls, who helped spread it virally.

Engagement: Once the message has been delivered, good political campaigns engage supporters and voters to stay the distance until the final votes are counted. It is as much about attracting new voters as it is about keeping the current ones happy and engaged. But unlike political contests, in which the loser goes home to fight another day, the fight for subscribers is ongoing.

A friend of mine was a loyal customer of the leading operator for over 10 years. Over time, he noticed a drop in customer service and network quality. When his contract was over, he switched to the competitor. He didn’t hear from his old operator until six months later, at which point the chance of getting him to switch back was literally zero. Operators shouldn’t take customers for granted. Instead of just focusing on acquiring customers or upping the ARPU (average revenue per user), they should focus on LTV (lifetime value) and APPU (average profit per user).

Unlike political campaigns that can’t connect “what voters say” (surveys) to “what voters do” (votes), operators can connect the dots using the tremendous amount of user data already available — and their understanding can be continuously refined with each user interaction.

By aligning the efforts of segmentation, messaging and engagement, marketing efforts will be more focused and yield better results. Once the segmentation and understanding of the user is fine tuned, such gathered knowledge can be applied continuously, enhancing the experience of users by providing recommendations based on what they might be most interested in. These segments can then be studied in conjunction with other strategic models, such as profitability, potential, client credit risk and client vulnerability, and applied to the carrier’s objectives: retaining profitable customers, growing customers with potential, managing and controlling customers with higher credit risk profiles, and optimizing the costs of less profitable customers. Wireless operators can then identify real opportunities in the market where they can make a difference.

Full disclosure: Some of the companies mentioned in this article are clients of the author.