Partner Event – GigaOm – Mobilize July 18, 2011
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentOur friends and media partner at GigaOm are putting together another great event this year. Be sure to check it out. Friends of Chetan Sharma Consulting get $100 off.
All eyes are on mobile. All leaders are at Mobilize.
Mobilize 2011
September 26 & 27 – San Francisco, CA
All eyes are on mobile. All leaders are at Mobilize. Opportunity is everywhere. With the success of mobile web, devices and applications, we’re standing at a precipice of innovation with nearly endless potential. That’s why Mobilize 2011 has doubled in scope, now providing two days of insight and analysis.
See the full speaker list here: http://event.gigaom.com/mobilize/speakers/.
Register today (save $100) and join what’s sure to be a sold-out crowd on September 26 & 27 in San Francisco.
State of the Global Mobile Industry – Half Yearly Assessment 2011 July 7, 2011
Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, ARPU, BRIC, Carriers, Connected Devices, Devices, Enterprise Mobility, European Wireless Market, IP, IP Strategy, Indian Wireless Market, Infrastructure, Intellectual Property, Japan Wireless Market, Location Based Services, Mergers and Acquisitions, Microsoft Mobile, Middleware, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Cloud Computing, Mobile Commerce, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Event, Mobile Future, Mobile Future Forward, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Payments, Mobile Search, Mobile Traffic, Mobile Usability, Mobile Users, Mobile Wallet, Networks, Partnership, Patent Strategies, Patent Strategy, Patents, Privacy, Smart Phones, Speaking Engagements, Speech Recognition, Student Paper Contest, US Wireless Market, Wi-Fi, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 6 comments
http://www.chetansharma.com/globalmobileupdate1H2011.htm
The big picture
The global mobile industry is the most vibrant and fastest growing industry. We expect the total revenue in the industry to touch approximately $1.3 Trillion in 2011 with mobile data representing 24% of the mix. Global Mobile Data revenues are expected to eclipse $300 Billion for the first time in 2011. It is also the first year in which non-messaging data revenues will make up the majority of the overall global data revenues at 53%.
We expect the total number of subscriptions to exceed 6 billion by the end of 2011. The first 1 billion took over 20 years and this last one is going to take only 15 months. The primary growth drivers are India and China which are cumulatively adding 75M new subs every quarter. Indian and China are also entangled in the race to the billion. At the end of Q2 2011, China was ahead by 50M but India is adding subscriptions at faster rate and is likely to eclipse China before Q2 2012. By then, both nations are expected to exceed 1 Billion in total subscriptions making up 31% of the global subscriptions.
In Q1 2011, US became the first major market to exceed the 50% mark in smartphone sales. The global figure stands at approximately 26%. Some operators expect 90% of their devices sales to be smartphones by the end of the year. In terms of the actual smartphone penetration, we expect the US market to eclipse the 50% mark in 2012.
China leads in the number of subs but US dominates in both total and data revenue. A number of emerging nations are now in top 10 – Brazil, India, Russia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mexico while once dominant – Korea, UK, Italy, Germany have dropped off or slipped in rankings.
The number of mobile operators with more than $1B in data revenues will increase to 47 in 2011. This number was only at 13 in 2005.
Japan continues to be the leader in mobile data with NTT DoCoMo, KDDI, and Softbank Japan ahead of the pack in terms of mobile data revenue and data as a % of total ARPU. In 2011, it became the first major market to have more than 50% of its mobile revenue from data services. Next, Australia and the US have made good inroads in the last two years. In fact, if we look at the overall data revenue, US is much further ahead than any nation due to the size of the market.
While India has the highest subscriber growth rate in the world right now, the revenue generating opportunity remain down right anemic compared to other major markets with average dropping down to $3.50 in overall ARPU. Even with significant subscriber base, there is going to be a general lack of opportunity in the market for the next couple of years relative to other markets.
Mobile Trends for 2011
1.Total Global Subscriptions to hit 6 Billion
–India and China racing to a billion a piece
2.Total Global Mobile Revenues to hit $1.3 Trillion, almost 2% of Global GDP
–Top 10 operators control 43% of the global mobile revenues
3.Total Global Mobile Data Revenues to eclipse $300 Billion
–Non-messaging data now owns 53% of the global mobile data revenues
4.Mobile Devices are now exceeding traditional computers in unit sales + revenue
–Majority of the device sales in the US are now smartphones. Device Replacement is shrinking
5.Mobile Broadband (4G) is being deployed at a faster rate than previous generations
–Over 1 Billion broadband connections by 2011
6.Global Mobile Apps revenue has shifted to off-deck
–The decline is directly proportional to the increase in smartphone penetration by region
7.All major markets are consolidating with the top 3 players at 85% of the market
–Regulators will have to be more prudent and proactive about managing competitiveness and growth
8.Mobile Data Traffic will be 95% of the global mobile traffic by 2015
–Many countries are facing spectrum exhaust in the next 5 years
9.Connected device segment is growing at the fastest pace
–Operators will have to quickly adapt their strategies to stay relevant in this segment
10.Several multi-billion dollar opportunity segments are emerging
–Mobile Advertising, Mobile Commerce, Mobile Wellness, Mobile Games, and Mobile Cloud Computing to name a few
11.Mobile Ecosystem has become very dynamic and unpredictable
–Apple, Google, Amazon, and Facebook have become the most important revenue generating mobile platforms
12. There will be more changes in the next 10 years than in the previous 100
– The value chains will keep disrupting every 12-24 months by the new players and business models
13. Intellectual Property has become a key component of long-term product strategy
– Top 20 control 1/3rd of the overall mobile patent pool
Devices
Apple has had the tablet space to itself. Thus far the response from the competitors has been tepid esp. on the pricing dimension. Apple has had such a mastery over the supply-chain and months ahead of the competition that by the time they figure out details, Apple already locks up the pricing advantage for the cycle. OEMs try to catch-up on the features but can’t do on the margins. OEMs can grow the pie by bringing products at a better price points that helps attract different demographics to the mix. Microsoft can make good inroads into the space with its Win8 tablet release in 2012 but it will be again in a catch-up mode as the iOS ecosystem will be even more robust by then. The cheaper Android tablets will do well in the market. As expected, tablets will pretty much eliminate the need for netbooks and are starting to eat into the desktop/laptop revenue.
Nokia and RIM are under severe market scrutiny as investors and developers leave in droves. Lack of product planning and execution has left their market share in disarray. Nokia’s valuation has been cut into half while the newcomer HTC edged past the industry giant in a remarkable story of the year. Nokia’s release of N9 shows the engineering and creative design depth but a lot is riding on the first generation of Nokia Windows Phones. While the market hasn’t shown much appetite for Windows phone thus far, a good family of devices might be able to slow the loss trajectory and position the combined team for the up-for-grabs 3rd spot in the ecosystem. HP’s acquisition of Palm is finally bringing some new products to the market but the lack of an effective ecosystem means lack of traction in 2011. Given that the computing is shifting to mobile devices, we can expect some of the weaker desktop/laptop players will exit the industry.
Tablets are primarily being used in the WiFi mode because the primary use case is indoors and WiFi gives a better (and cheaper) user experience. Once operators start to roll out user-friendly family data plans across multiple devices, we can expect the cellular activation go higher but will still be dominated by WiFi overall.
The number of connected devices per subscriber and per family will continue to increase over the course of this decade. As the cost structure and margin profile for these devices will be different, we are likely to measure performance of various operators using margin analysis for e.g. while the ARPU for connected devices is 5-10 times lower than the postpaid subscribers, the margins are typically higher due to lower costs of sales, marketing, support, and subsidy. As such the overall impact is dilutive ARPU but higher margins. So, instead of focusing on just the ARPU, the efficiency of operators will be measured in how well they maintain average margin per user (AMPU) and average margin per connection (AMPC).
Managing the data growth
As a result of the data tsunami, there are two types of opportunities that are being created, one that take advantage of the data being generated in a way that enhances the user experience and provides value and the other in technologies that help manage the traffic data that will continue to grow exponentially.
To be able to stay ahead of the demand, significant planning needs to go in to deal with the bits and bytes that are already exploding. New technical and business solutions will be needed to manage the growth and profit from the services. Relying on only one solution won’t be an effective strategy to manage rising data demand. A holistic approach to managing data traffic is needed and our analysis shows that the cost structure can be reduced by more than half if a suite of solutions are deployed vs. a single dimensional approach and thus bringing the hockey stick curves of data cost more in line with the revenues and thus preserving the margins.
The decision making process within the operator organizations will need to be streamlined as well. Operators should also consider creating a senior post which focuses on both the cost side and the solution side so they can devise and institute a sustainable long-term policy and keep the margins healthy.
Competitive landscape
The Rule of Three is evident in all major markets. While the percentage market share might vary, on an average, the top 3 control 93% of the market in an given nation. It doesn’t matter if the market is defined by “controlled regulation” like in China, Korea, and Japan or if it is “open market” driven in markets such as the US, UK, and India. Eventually, only top 3 operators control the majority of the market. There are niches that others occupy but they are largely irrelevant to the overall structure and functioning of the mobile market.
Markets such as US and India experienced similar competitive environment in their hyper-growth phase. For the US, this phase was in the nineties-mid-2000s while India has been experiencing the similar environment in the last 3-4 years. In both cases, at the start there are 5-6 players with no more than 25% market share but higher than 10% of the mix but gradually the market forces enable consolidation. Over a period of 18 years, US is settling into a “top 3” operator market. India’s brutal price wars are going to trigger the consolidation in the next 12-24 months and will eventually settle into a structure similar to other markets.
The competitive equilibrium point in the mobile industry seems to when the market shares of the top 3 are 46%:29%:18% respectively with the remaining 7% being allocated to the niche operators. To achieve some semblance of equilibrium in the market the top operator shouldn’t have more than 50% of the market share and the number three player shouldn’t have less than 20%. This helps create enough balance in the market to derive maximum value for the consumer.
Mobile operators will face some hard choices in developing and protecting the role they want to play in a given region and the ecosystem at-large. The strategy they choose will have a direct impact on the expected EBITDA margins, investment required over the long-haul, how investors view them, and on the competitive landscape of the country. Given, the fast pace of globalization, new rules and trends might emerge over the course of this decade that further define “communications” and “computing” as we know it.
Apps and Services
As expected, mobile commerce and payment discussions are dominating the ecosystem. There is clearly a lot of investment and marketing dollars being spent. However, the traditional payments networks are largely intact. The new opportunities are being built on top of the existing payment platforms with convenience (Square) and offers and advertising (Google Wallet, ISIS, Groupon). Beyond payments, mobile is getting ingrained into every vertical and every facet of our lives – from healthcare to education, from energy to entertainment, from communication to socialization. And we are in the early innings of figuring out the business models, ecosystem leaders, user behavior, regulatory needs, and the overall impact on society.
Ecosystem Dynamics
It is very clear that the ecosystem dynamics can change very quickly, one just can’t take the competitive and friendly forces for granted. In the past, the silos and segments were clearly defined with little overlap. However, over the course of last couple of years, players have been migrating and surfing in segments across the board - from Apple to Visa, from P&G to AT&T, from Facebook to Time Warner, from Google to Best Buy, every company wants to capture the mindshare and piece of the consumer’s pocketbook. The fine line between partners and competitors can get obliterated in a quarter. Apple is competing with Cisco, Comcast is going after AT&T’s business, Visa and Verizon want to be the payment channel of choice, Amazon is gunning for Microsoft’s enterprise business. One product launch, one acquisition, can change the game in an instant. And this is only the beginning.
Mobile is fundamentally reshaping how we as consumers spend from housing and healthcare to entertainment and travel, from food and drinks to communication and transportation. Mobile not only influences purchase behavior but also post purchase opinions. When the share button is literally a second away, consumers are willingly sharing more information than ever before. Mobile is thus helping close the nirvana gap for brands and advertisers who seek to connect advertising to actual transactions. The long-term battle is however for owning the context of the users. Having the best knowledge about the user to help drive the transaction is the simply the most valuable currency of commerce.
Mobile Future Forward
We will be discussing the global mobile ecosystem – the challenges and the opportunities at our annual mobile thought-leadership summit – Mobile Future Forward - brought to you in partnership with our terrific partners – Qualcomm, Millennial Media, Real Networks, AT&T Interactive, Synchronoss Technologies, OpenMarket, Ericsson, and Openwave. Hope to see you in Seattle on Sept 12th.
Some of the distinguished guests include:
Abhi Ingle, VP – Advanced Mobility, AT&T Wireless; Amit Gupta, SVP and CTO, INQMobile; Bob Gessel, VP/Head of Technology and Network Strategy, Ericsson; Braxton Woodham, Head of Engineering, AVOS; Carlos Domingo, CEO, Telefonica; Charlie Herrin, SVP - Products and Technology, Comcast; Dale Nitschke, former President, Target; Danny Bowman, President - Connected Devices, Sprint Nextel; David Messenger, EVP, Head - Online/Mobile, American Express; Erik Moreno, SVP, Fox; Gibu Thomas, SVP - Online/Mobile, Walmart; Glenn Lurie, President, AT&T Wireless; Hank Skorny, Chief Strategy Officer, Real Networks; Janet Schijns, VP, Verizon Wireless; Jason McKenzie, President, HTC-Americas; Jay Emmet, GM, OpenMarket; Jeremiah Zinn, EVP, MTV; Jerry Batt, CIO, PulteGroup; John SanGiovanni, Cofounder, Zumobi; Ken Denman, CEO, Openwave; Ken Wirth, President, Alcatel Lucent Wireless; Kris Rinne, SVP - Networks, AT&T Wireless; Mark Rolston, Chief Creative Officer, Frog Design; Matt Oommen, President, Reliance Communications; Mikael Back, VP of Products and Portfolio Management, Ericsson; Mike Mulica, President, Synchronoss Technologies; Paul Palmieri, CEO, Millennial Media; Prof. Cliff Nass, Human Computer Interaction, Stanford University; Rob Glaser, Partner, Accel; Sanjiv Ahuja, CEO, LightSquared; Stephen Bye, CTO, Sprint; Steve Mollenkopf, EVP and Group President, Qualcomm; Subba Rao, former CEO, Tata DoCoMo; Suja Chandrasekaran, CIO, Timberland; Will Hsu, Chief Product Officer, AT&T Interactive
More information at http://www.mobilefutureforward.com
Your feedback is always welcome.
Thanks and have a great 2H 2011.
Chetan Sharma
We will be keeping a close eye on the trends in the wireless data sector in our blog, twitter feeds, future research reports, and articles. The next US Wireless Data Market update will be released in Aug 2011. The next Global Wireless Market update will be issued in Jan 2012.
Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this paper are our clients.
Mobile Breakfast Series – Mobile Commerce and Payments June 29, 2011
Posted by chetan in : Mobile Breakfast Series, Mobile Payments, Mobile Wallet, Smart Phones, US Wireless Market, Wi-Fi, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a commentWe held our 7th Mobile Breakfast Series Event earlier today. The topic of discussion was “Mobile Commerce and Payments.”
The killer views of the Olympics and the Sound
Mark Young did a great job moderating the panel
The panel expertly delved into the intricacies of the mobile commerce/payments opportunity
The 2011 Mobile Breakfast Series is sponsored by Amdocs. A big thank you for the support.
At the end of every year, we do a forecast survey. In the last survey, Mobile Payments and Commerce were considered the top two categories for growth in 2011. Given the activities thus far – Google Wallet, ISIS, number of startups – Payfone, BilltoMobile, existing players like OpenMarket, financial guys across the board – past few months have been full of significant activity. The mobile commerce developments are right behind the AT&T/T-Mobile proposed merger and Microsoft/Nokia partnership in terms of news coverage.
I remember back in 2001/2, I was writing my 2nd book with my good friend and co-author Nakamura-san who was CTO at NTT DoCoMo and while doing some work for DoCoMo and AT&T, we were exploring ways the mobile device will be used for commerce not only for digital goods but also for physical things. MCommerce has been around for the better part of the last 12 years in some form and fashion, in fact today it is a multi-billion dollar market already. Mobile payments are in different states of maturity and experimentation depending on the region. Do you know the value of US payment distribution - $75 Trillion out of which only 5% is based on cards which accounts for almost $3-4 trillion Total Transaction Value. Paypal is expected to process $4B in mobile payments this year generating over $70M in mobile payments revenue.
OpenMarket processes a significant amount of mcommerce business in the US today. As you will hear from the panelists, they are starting to see good traction from merchants and things are moving from digital to physical. However, things are very complicated – it is a highly regulated segment and changes don’t come every so often. The payment networks are from pre-Internet era and yet they maintain their complete dominance of the ecosystem. So, this sets up a very interesting next few quarters and a perfect time for us at Mobile Breakfast Series to assemble a stellar panel to unwind the realities of the evolving landscape.
Our panelists were:
Mark Young, VP - Strategy, NBC Universal and Digital Networks (moderator)
Rodger Desai, Founder and CEO, Payfone
Jim Greenwell, President & CEO, BilltoMobile
Andrew Lorentz, Partner, Davis Wright Tremaine
Michael Goo, VP - Mobile Strategy, T-Mobile
Joe Megibow, VP - Mobile and E-Commerce Optimization, Expedia
Mark has been involved in mobile for a long time and has been at the center of commerce on mobile since the ringtone days at Moviso. Rodger and Payfone have been in the news lately for some raising money and some key partners like Verizon and American Express. BilltoMobile has been involved in mobile payments first in Korea (under Danal) and lately in the US with all the operators for doing payments. Payments is a heavily regulated industry so players in the ecosystem need to have a firm grasp on regulatory winds to ensure their future revenues. Andrew with his deep background in the space was perfectly suited to bring up to speed with pending and existing rules. ISIS has been in the news throughout the year and Michael Goo has been representing T-Mobile to help define the operator strategy in payments. Expedia is one of the largest ecommerce companies and they are seeing some tremendous growth in mcommerce. Joe is right in the middle of all the craziness and his analytical mindset gave audience some great insights.
As i mentioned, mcommerce is not new but mobile web and apps infrastructure along with new methods of interactivity like the NFC are making things simpler for the consumers that it is moving from novelty to convenience to actual dollars.
The panel was just full of great insights and nuggets. The highlights of the discussion was as follows:
- For Expedia, the majority of the mobile traffic comes from iPhone, roughly 60-70%, Android is around 25%, Conversion rates are much higher on iPhone, The order size on Android is 10% lower than iPhone.
- From a traffic perspective, iPad traffic is double the iPhone traffic though the device penetration is 1/10th. Conversion rates are much higher
- Two years ago, the mobile traffic was around 2% when Expedia didn’t have any mobile site. Now it is almost 6% with 10% on Saturdays, Average transaction ranges in the $200-300 range.
- Given the traffic dynamics on iPad, it is a unique category in of itself – something we have argued before – it is a new category in terms of consumer behavior.
- Most of the traffic for Expedia is from mobile web as SEO and paid search drive traffic to web, difficult to do deep linking, as such mobile web revenue is 5/6 times the app revenue.
- In a multi-device, multi-network world, consumers expect the services to just work across the board with same user experience.
- Fandango drives impulse purchases of movie tickets using “near me” feature of apps 2-4 hours prior to the show vs. 8-12 hours traditionally.
- Charlie Fodie who is on the board of Payfone expects the interchange in payments to go away over time. This will be indeed disruptive, the question is the timing.
- Only 25% of consumers have credit card in their profile with their operator in the US. 30% still pay $9-10B in cash/year to the operators by walking into the store.
- Payfone sees an opportunity by doing auction based underwriting in real-time to minimize the transaction fee.
- The uniqueness of the device can be used as its fingerprint for authentication. Payfone uses the SS7 network for authentication messaging.
- Consumers are unlikely to put $1200 plane ticket on their operator bill. The mind shift is not there, maybe things will shift, but not there in the short-term.
- Operators are exploring using the consumer data as a way to refine advertising, open it up to the ecosystem.
- Durbanization of all forms of exchange fees is near.
- Payfone allows transactions over WiFi on operator bill as well.
- In Korea, 80% of people do payments using mobile so the blueprint to get more people involved with mobile payments is there
- Verizon has a $25/mo limit on carrier billing. A Canadian operator has $500, so on a 6M sub base they have a $4B cash flow thus essentially becoming a bank. The mindset is quite different compared to the US operators
- Merchants are not bought into mobile payments yet. They want to see more adoption before they start investing more aggressively with NFC and other forms of payment.
- Industry is underestimating fragmentation, consumer confusion, regulatory headwinds, consumer adoption once friction is removed, and how soon all ecommerce will become mcommerce.
- Industry is overestimating how much of the space is going to be defined by the western markets
The panel was full of key insights that impact strategy in this space. I was thankful for the speakers to have made the time, especially the ones who traveled great distances to be with us to share their insights.
Next, our focus moves to our annual mobile thought-leadership summit – Mobile Future Forward on Sept 12th in Seattle. It is shaping up really nicely with some terrific speakers. You can take a look at the info here.
The goal of the event is to look a bit into the future 2-5 years out and see what’s on the horizon. We are deep into the planning stages of preparing another successful event. I want to thank our partners of this initiative – Qualcomm, Ericsson, AT&T, Openwave, Millennial Media, Real Networks, and Synchronoss Technologies.
Hope you can join us. It will be worth your while.
Until then, enjoy the summer.
Partner Event: Mobilebeat 7/12-13, SF June 27, 2011
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a comment
Venturebeat’s flagship mobile conf – Mobilebeat - is around the corner and we have got a discount for you. This year’s theme is “Who will win in the 4G Nirvana?”
Friends of Chetan click here and use discount code "VB-Chetan" to get 20% off!
There’s no doubt that 4G is more than just a speed upgrade. It allows consumers to use the mobile web like their home broadband connection, which is spurring untold innovation from all major industry sectors. At MobileBeat 2011, speakers will dissect these multi-billion dollar sectors that are being transformed by the new, resource-rich mobile networks and platforms: Payments, e-commerce, phone & device makers, cloud, web development, mobile gaming, and more.
You’ll also get a peek at 20 of the hottest new mobile startups in the applications and infrastructure/services categories as they present live onstage at the MobileBeat 2011 Startup Competition.
Mobile Breakfast Series – Mobile Commerce and Payments – 6/28 June 23, 2011
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentHope you are enjoying the post-solstice summer/winter.
Just wanted to do a quick update on next week’s Mobile Breakfast Series event on Mobile Commerce and Payments (June 28th ).
We are excited to add Joe Megibow, VP, Mobile and E-Commerce Optimization at Expedia to the mix. As you know Expedia is one of the leading players in e-commerce. They are doing some really good work in the mobile commerce space and are further into implementing the strategy than most.
In his role, Joe has global responsibility for Expedia’s mobile initiatives, including Mobiata, the leading provider of mobile travel apps. Joe also oversees e-commerce optimization activities including leading-edge site conversion optimization techniques, marketing, site, and customer analytics, and site experimentation. Finally, Joe has product management responsibility for core e-commerce flows, including product search and checkout. He joined the Expedia, Inc. family in 2006, heading up Online Marketing and Customer Experience for hotels.com. He is very analytics and data driven and was recognized in March 2011 as the recipient of the Practitioner of the Year, Award for Excellence by the Web Analytics Association (WAA).
Hardly a week goes by without a new announcement/initiative in mobile commerce. There is clearly lot of attention but so are the number of questions about business models, growth trajectory, ecosystem dynamics, key success criterion, timing, and just how is this space going to evolve over time. We are glad to be able to assemble a stellar group of individuals who are deep into mobile commerce on a daily basis.
Rodger Desai, CEO and Cofounder, Payfone – Fresh from their $19M round, the company is starting to break into the market with its unique value prop
Jim Greenwell, President & CEO, BilltoMobile – The parent company Danal has been doing m-commerce in Korea for some time, and now they are seeing success in the US market
Andrew Lorentz, Partner, Davis Wright Tremaine – Commerce and payments has an important regulatory and legal aspect that will be well covered by Andrew
Mark Young, VP – Strategy, NBC Universal (moderator) – Mark is a consumer of these commerce technologies and has good insights into the issues in the ecosystem that needs to be addressed
Michael Goo, VP – Strategic Initiatives, T-Mobile – Michael has been the co-architect of the ISIS business model and deeply involved in all things mobile commerce
Joe Megibow, VP – Mobile and E-Commerce Optimization, Expedia – Joe is the driving force behind Expedia’s mobile commerce efforts
Date: June 28th 2011
Place: Columbia Tower Club, 701 5th Ave, Suite 7600, Seattle, WA 98104
Time: 7:30-11am (panel discussion will be from 8:30 am to 10am)
Registration is open. We will be closing registration this Friday (6/24), so if you are planning to be part of the discussion, kindly register before then.
Many thanks to our partner Amdocs for making this event possible.
Looking forward to seeing you all on Tuesday.
Thanks and best wishes,
ps. The Mobile Future Forward Executive Summit is shaping up nicely as well for Sept 12th and we have an excellent line of executives. Seats are limited so I will encourage you to register early.
What is your Patent Portfolio Quotient? June 16, 2011
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentAbout four years ago, I wrote a paper on how one should think about patents and patent portfolio - “What’s your patent portfolio quotient?” Companies often misunderstand patents and IP and waste an awful lot of resources on securing the wrong things and fighting the wrong battles. If patent strategy is integrated into the product and marketing strategy, companies do well. Given the cut-throat competition in the mobile space, it is even more critical to formulate good strategies. It is a good time to revisit the paper. Having seen the complete lifecycle of a patent from birth to end of life from grant to licensing to litigation, the paper offers some practical advise on building IP.
Abstract below and link for the paper at the bottom.
Abstract
Over the last twenty years, the global economy has slowly transformed into a vibrant knowledge economy. With reduced barriers to entry and pervasive globalization, a small company in a developing world can compete for its share on the world stage. The invention of new ideas and products remains an integral part of the global economy and the commercial food chain. Patents are an invaluable tool to protect and commercialize the inventions. They are essential to creating the barriers to entry for rivals. They are needed for building the credibility and the confidence of investors, customers, partners, and employees. They are required for providing clarity as to the property ownership, for demanding leverage from the industry, and for generating sustainable revenue from licensing and sale.
In the global marketplace, amongst all the other competitive factors, innovation matters the most and patents can help deliver the competitive edge required to remain viable. Inventors who used to see patents solely as part of their defensive strategy (and to alleviate any future litigation risks) to prevent competitors encroach their space are looking to be more aggressive with their inventions to make patents part of their offensive and licensing strategy. To ensure the financial security of the patents, some companies are embedding their IP programs as part of their Knowledge Management and Risk Management initiatives where they capture know-how, harvest IP and ingrain IP into their product development lifecycles.
Patents will continue to grow in their contribution as a key corporate asset. Since much value is associated with patents, the industry need better tools to assess and to understand the valuation and the strength of the patent portfolios. This paper will introduce the methodology of Patent Portfolio Quotient™ (PPQ) to measure performance of your patent program and portfolio that enables a Return on Investment (ROI) driven approach. PPQ measures the quality of the patent portfolio and the patent program with clear policies and procedures as it relates to the lifecycle of patents within an organization from innovation to licensing or sale. We will review the importance of patents as a tool for competitiveness and their value to a corporation. Next, we will address - why a patent program should be integrated with product development lifecycle to extract the maximum value from their intellectual property assets. Finally, the paper will introduce the basics of PPQ and discuss what inventors and companies can do to increase their PPQ.
For rest of the paper, please download the PDF (22 pages, 1MB)
Mobile Future Forward 2011 Executive Summit Announces Speakers and Key Partners
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentMobile Future Forward 2011 Executive Summit Announces Speakers and Key Partners
The future of mobile technology, business models, and consumers will be envisioned by key influencers and thinkers at this leading mobile industry summit
SEATTLE, WA – June 16, 2011 – Mobile Future Forward, the wireless industry’s annual mobile thought-leadership summit, today announced that executives from leading communications companies, including AT&T Wireless, Sprint, Qualcomm, and HTC, will headline the 2011 conference speaker program. The event which takes place in Seattle, WA on September 12th is dedicated to discussing, debating, and deciding the future of mobile.
“Mobile Future Forward attracts a unique blend of visionaries and decision makers who influence billions of dollars of investment and purchasing decisions on a regular basis. Therefore, it is critically important to understand the evolution of the mobile ecosystem through their eyes,” said Chetan Sharma, Founder of Mobile Future Forward.
The distinguished thought-leaders for the 2011 program include:
· Glenn Lurie, President, AT&T Wireless;
· Danny Bowman, President, Sprint
· Steve Mollenkopf, EVP & Group President, Qualcomm
· Jason MacKenzie, President, HTC
· Sanjiv Ahuja, CEO, LightSquared
· Charlie Herrin, SVP, Comcast
· Paul Palmieri, CEO, Millennial Media
· David Messenger, EVP, American Express
· Erik Moreno, SVP, FOX
· Gibu Thomas, SVP, Walmart
· Hank Skorny, CSO, Real Networks
· Ken Denman, CEO, Openwave Systems
· Kris Rinne, SVP, AT&T
· Mike Mulica, President, Synchronoss Technologies
· Will Hsu, CPO, AT&T Interactive
· Suja Chandrasekaran, CIO, Timberland
· Prof. Cliff Nass, HCI, Stanford University
· Jo Harlow, EVP – Smart-Devices, Nokia
· Ken Wirth, President, Alcatel-Lucent Wireless
Mobile Future Forward is designed to help understand the tectonic industry shifts happening in mobile consumer behavior, technology and the telecoms business models over the next 5 years. The conference will help prepare the participants with critical understanding of the opportunities and the turmoil to come.
“We can expect more changes in the next 10 years than the previous 100,” said Chetan Sharma. “It is the companies that recognize and prepare for these disruptions and advancements that will prevail.”
During the conference, many important possible scenarios will be discussed and debated. The scenario triggers will vary but each of these factors can have an impact on how something trending now, will later become fact of life. To maintain their competitiveness and relevance in a trillion dollar mobile economy, players need to be better prepared and agile. Mobile Future Forward provides a platform for discussion, networking, and for shaping the mobile industry growth.
Mobile Future Forward is proudly sponsored by the most influential names in telecoms, wireless technology and consumer mobile. Companies contributing to the 2011 event include Qualcomm, Ericsson, AT&T Interactive, Synchronoss Technologies, Millennial Media, Real Networks, and Openwave.
Industry professionals can also download the Mobile Future Forward book published last year at the conference, which contains 18 exclusive thought leadership essays from high level industry executives at http://www.mobilefutureforward.com/.
About Mobile Future Forward
Mobile Future Forward is the mobile thought-leadership summit that attracts the most influential minds in the mobile industry. Participants include C-Level executives who are very instrumental in shaping the industry, in innovation adoption, and in managing the growth of revenues and profits. The experts and visionaries from around the globe will convene in Seattle on Sept 12th to envision and define the mobile industry over the next 5 years. Mobile Future Forward is produced by Chetan Sharma Consulting, the leading management and global strategic advisory firm to mobile industry leaders. http://www.chetansharma.com.
Mobile Future Forward Student Paper Contest June 15, 2011
Posted by chetan in : 4G, AORTA, Connected Devices, European Wireless Market, Indian Wireless Market, Mobile Future Forward, Student Paper Contest, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a commentTo create the future, we must first be capable of imagining it
- Gary Hamel and C.K. Prahalad, Competing for the Future, 1994
The Event
It was the most satisfying experience of my career. The contest and the Mobile Future Forward summit made me reevaluate my research and career from a fresh perspective.
- Lun Huang, Phd Student - Electrical Engineering, Illinois Institute of Technology, 2010 Mobile Future Forward Student Paper Contest Winner
Being selected as one of the winners of the contest presented me with an absolutely enriching experience. The most exciting part of the experience was the opportunity to interact and network with top industry leaders from all major mobile companies.
- Smruti Parichha, Grad Student - Dept of Computer Science and Engineering, University of California, Riverside 2010 Mobile Future Forward Student Paper Contest Winner
Mobile Future Forward is an executive summit attracting some of the most influential minds who are shaping the mobile industry. The experts and visionaries from around the globe will discuss the mobile industry 2-5 years forward, envision what the user experience and use case scenarios look like, discuss and debate the challenges and opportunities in the journey to that vision.
The Contest
The best student paper contest is open to universities and research institutes around the world. Your task is to help us imagine new technologies, new experiences, new applications and services, new use cases, new business models of the mobile future. The paper can be on a specific technical or business subject within the mobile industry from mobile teleportation to fuel cells to a new enterprise collaboration tool and everything in between. The idea is to let your imagination fly without any restrictions and dream of what’s possible in the next 5-10 years. Papers can be about technical solutions to the most pressing problems, about new revenue models, about your vision of how mobile will be used in the future, etc. Paper length: 1000-1500 words.
The Prize
Authors of the top two outstanding papers will get a paid trip to attend the conference and mingle with the who’s who of the wireless industry. Winners will also be eligible for more prizes. Please send in your entries by July 15th, 2011 tocontest@mobilefutureforward.com including a copy of your current student ID. Use of graphics and illustrations is encouraged. While an indication of interest is not required, it is appreciated. A panel of industry experts and executives will vote on the best papers. They will be ranked on originality, ambitiousness, creativity, depth, and clarity of vision. The goal of the contest is to bring out and reward the best thinking from the leaders of tomorrow.
2010 Student Paper Contest
Lun Huang of Illinois Institute of Technology and Smruti Parichha of University of California, Riverside wrote the top two winning papers respectively and were invited to meet with the senior executives in the mobile industry and attend the Mobile Future Forward Executive Summit. Our thanks to all the students who participated, the judges who helped us pick the winners, and Intel for supporting the contest. See details here.
For more Info, please contact contest@mobilefutureforward.com
Microsoft != Kodak June 13, 2011
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentNY Times in its editorial this weekend compared Microsoft to Kodak implying its days are numbered.
Technology upends companies in different ways. It allows new firms to deliver better products and services in a more efficient way; it also creates new goods and services for consumers to want. Eastman Kodak, the fifth-biggest company in the S.& P. 500 in 1975, was almost destroyed by digital cameras and is no longer in the index. General Motors, fifth biggest in 1985, was hobbled by rivals that could make more fuel efficient cars. Microsoft still rules the PC desktop. But that will matter less and less as users migrate to tablets and more computing takes place in “the cloud.”
There is no doubt that Microsoft has had missteps esp. in the mobile space over the last 4-5 years but calling them a one-trick pony is taking the argument too far. Apple has clearly taken away the mantle of the technology leader in the mobile space but Microsoft is still very strong in the enterprise and its Xbox team is doing really well. While Bing is behind, the mobile Bing team has done some really good work. It has multiple businesses that are doing well giving it enough runway for the foreseeable future but the market won’t wait forever. It’s big bank balance will also help it compete.
Kodak was completely unprepared for the digital world and didn’t have many product lines to offset the losses. Microsoft is different, there are units that are doing cutting edge work and there are others like “online” which are bleeding money. However, as many players in the industry with long memories will tell you – you never count Microsoft out.
iCloud – taking consumer cloud to the next level June 7, 2011
Posted by chetan in : Mobile Cloud Computing, Mobile Future Forward, US Wireless Market, Worldwide Wireless Market , 2 commentsApple announced their iCloud offering today. Idea is pretty simple – Cloud becomes the data center for all devices especially for media content – photos, videos, songs, documents, etc. We wrote about that in our Mobile Cloud Computing paper in much detail.
I wrote about the key success factors for any mobile cloud computing offering -
For any mobile cloud computing service to reach the masses, it has to get the basics right specifically around the user experience and the pricing. As past experiences have shown - if one gets these wrong out of the gate, it is very difficult to get the users interested again.
The key success factors for any mobile cloud computing application or service are:
User experience
The success of a product or the service is defined by the “end to end” user experience and the perceived value users have. A product or service that has a positive impact on user’s emotions, needs, preferences, perceptions, and behaviors has a better chance of reaching mass market in a short-amount of time. In the case of mobile cloud computing, the picture is multi-dimensional, as the service has to adapt to multiple devices and networks and hide the complexity from the user. It should just work.
Pricing
Pricing is a key element that makes the difference between a niche service and a mass-market phenomenon. Consumers should perceive that they are receiving more value for what they are being asked to pay. Many excellent services never caught fire primarily because the value equation was imbalanced. For e.g. the MediaFLO service from Qualcomm was technically perfect but because of the high cost structure, limited operator promotion and distribution, and high pricing for the consumers, it never caught on. There are similar examples throughout the history of the mobile industry. Any new service should first earn its value.
Interoperability
We are living in an increasingly fragmented world. Our content and media consumption is across multiple sources and with different providers. Our preferences and tastes are continuously evolving. Any vertically focused service needs to account for this new reality. This means that interoperability is not a feature but a key functionality without which the service won’t get much traction. The cloud computing ecosystem is going to have multiple providers for example, a consumer is likely to have music files with Apple, books with Amazon, pictures with Google, address book with T-Mobile, friends photos on Facebook, family videos with Yahoo and so on and so forth. Any media cloud computing solution should be open enough to ingest content from any service and provide the capability of multiple cloud services from a single interface depending on consumer preferences. Cloud service providers who try to lock consumers into their databases without offering transparent interoperability will see their short-term advantage whittle away over time.
Discovery and Sharing
For the most part, mobile is still limited by the size of the screen. Consumers on the run have different expectations for media/content consumption. Instead of a series of links, they are looking for answers. Whether it is the song lyrics or associated social data of music and video files or the location and auto-recognition of the individuals in a photograph, rich metadata is key to automatically organize content as well as to instantly finding any piece of content across multiple libraries with gigabytes of data. As such, the value of meta data becomes extremely important.
Network and Device Intelligence
Even though the broadband capability has improved over the last few years, mobile is always going to be under the constraints of congestion, network load, and variable device capabilities. Also, it will be unwise to not take advantage of the device storage, capability and the processing power. A hybrid model provides a perfect balance of user experience, performance, and the range of options. Any cloud service should take advantage of the available resources on the device, in the network, and in the cloud infrastructure to deliver the best experience to the user in real-time. This can only be delivered if the service is aware of the network and the devices at all times. For example, the background syncing of music across various user devices can take place using Wi-Fi or during off-peak hours on a cellular network so as to not burden the network or transcoding the image or the video stream on the fly to adapt to the application, device and network characteristics. Hence, any mobile cloud computing service should be network and device aware at all times.
As always, Apple made the process simple and pricing super attractive. Now, others will have to respond in kind or try to do better with features. Pricing is set – FREE for 5GB (at least for now).
We will be discussing Mobile Cloud Computing and the infrastructure needs and requirements in our upcoming Mobile Future Forward event and will have some terrific speakers to address the topic.
Mobile Breakfast Series: Mobile Commerce and Payments: 6/28: Speaker update June 2, 2011
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentJust wanted to do a quick update on our upcoming Mobile Breakfast Series event on Mobile Commerce and Payments on June 28th.
We are excited to add Michael Goo, Vice President at T-Mobile to the mix. Michael is a co-architect in the creation of the ISIS business model with a continuing oversight role in T-Mobile’s investment in ISIS. His role encompasses both strategic alliances and mobile commerce. Given his involvement in the mobile payments initiatives and strategy, he will be a wonderful addition to our diverse panel.
In our annual predictions survey, the respondents picked mobile payments and commerce as the top two categories. Given the activity in the space in the last few weeks, things are certainly moving in this direction at least for the 1H 2011. A lot is still uncertain and there are too many players in the middle and some have yet to stake their claim but all of this makes for a very interesting 6-12 months in the space and perfectly sets up our panel on the 28th.
Rodger Desai, CEO and Cofounder, Payfone – Fresh from their $19M round, the company is starting to break into the market with its unique value prop
Jim Greenwell, President & CEO, BilltoMobile – The parent company Danal has been doing m-commerce in Korea for some time, and now they are seeing success in the US market
Andrew Lorentz, Partner, Davis Wright Tremaine – Commerce and payments has an important regulatory and legal aspect that will be well covered by Andrew. He has been deeply involved in formulating many mobile payment businesses in the US
Mark Young, VP – Strategy, NBC Universal – Mark is a consumer of these commerce technologies and has good insights into the issues in the ecosystem that needs to be addressed
Michael Goo, VP – Strategic Initiatives, T-Mobile – Michael has been the co-architect of the ISIS business model and deeply involved in all things mobile commerce
Date: June 28th 2011
Place: Columbia Tower Club, 701 5th Ave, Suite 7600, Seattle, WA 98104
Time: 7:30-11 (program will be from 8:30 am to 10am)
Registration is open. Early bird is expiring soon so will encourage you to register early.
Many thanks to our partner Amdocs for making this event possible.
Thanks and best wishes,
ps. The Mobile Future Forward Executive Summit is shaping up nicely as well for Sept 12th and we have an excellent line of executives. Early bird is expiring soon as well.
Google and Payments May 27, 2011
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentHad a chance to talk to Bloomberg about today’s Google Wallet announcement. Article below
Google Unveils Mobile Payment Service to Expand in Advertising, Coupons
By Olga Kharif and Amy Thomson - May 26, 2011 2:33 PM PT
A video screen displays a new payment service introduced by Google Inc. at an event in New York on May 26, 2011. Google Wallet will let consumers pay merchants and download coupons with a tap of their mobile phones. Photographer: Guy Calaf/Bloomberg
Google Inc. (GOOG) unveiled two services to let consumers pay merchants and download coupons with a tap of their mobile phones, as the Internet search giant seeks to expand in the growing market for mobile advertising.
Google is partnering with Mastercard Inc. (MA) and Sprint Nextel Corp. (S) to let customers pay and receive coupons on the go using their handsets, the company said today at an event in New York. The system, based on a technology called near field communication, will be available first on the Nexus S handset, which uses Google’s Android software, and later on other phones.
The new services will help Google compete for retail- marketing dollars that now flow to daily deal sites such as Groupon Inc., in-store display advertisers, business directories and newspapers. They will also help the company capture more information about consumers’ shopping behavior off the Internet, building on its knowledge of consumers’ online-buying habits.
“For Google, it is about advertising and enabling commerce,” said Chetan Sharma, an independent wireless analyst in Issaquah, Washington. “Google wants to become the personal concierge for the consumers.” More than 96 percent of Google’s $29.3 billion in sales last year came from search advertising.
Google said it expects to receive revenue from delivering ads and offers to handsets, and won’t make money off of payments. The payment service, called Google Wallet, and the related Google Offers service will be free to consumers.
Google, based in Mountain View, California, fell $1.54 to $518.13 at 4 p.m. New York time on the Nasdaq Stock Market. The shares have lost 13 percent this year. NXP Semiconductor NV (NXPI), the provider of NFC chips for the Nexus S, added $1.33 to $28.55. Mastercard rose $7.62 to $282.10 on the New York Stock Exchange.
Almost Ready
Google Wallet will be available in San Francisco and New York this summer. Google Offers, integrated with the Google Wallet and offering coupons and discounts, will be available in the same markets, and also in Portland, Oregon.
“It won’t be a long trial,” Fared Adib, a senior vice president at Sprint, said in an interview. “You trial things when they are nearly done and ready to go out.”
Sprint said most of its phones will have NFC technology eventually. Stephanie Tilenius, a Google executive, said 50 percent of phones sold in the U.S. will have NFC by 2014.
Other Google partners include First Data Corp. and Citigroup Inc. (C)
New York, San Francisco
Google is teaming up with retailers including fast-food chain Subway Restaurants, Macy’s Inc., and American Eagle Outfitters Inc. to let customers pay for products and redeem coupons with their phones. The services will work at retailers with terminals that accept Mastercard PayPass transactions.
Many merchants’ existing cash registers will have to be updated to work with the services. That could mean extra business for payment-systems providers like VeriFone Systems Inc. Douglas Bergeron, Verifone’s chief executive officer, said broad adoption of mobile-wallet services like Google’s could add $100 million to $150 million to his company’s annual revenue.
“We are in the wallets business now,” Bergeron said in an interview.
Coupon Service
Users of Google Offers will be able to download coupons by tapping their NFC-equipped phones on display ads, and the service will guide them to the nearest retailer where they can be redeemed.
“The most immediate impact will be felt in retail, but then can spread across every consumer-facing enterprise that accepts on-premise payments — travel, entertainment,” Sharma said.
U.S. mobile-coupon spending may rise to $6.53 billion in 2014 from $370 million in 2010, according to Borrell Associates Inc. The wallet may eventually include users’ drivers’ licenses, concert tickets and hotel room keys, Tilenius said.
The new services also may accelerate consumer adoption of Google’s Android operating system, Sharma said. The software was used in 36 percent of smartphones shipped globally in the first quarter, according to research firm Gartner Inc. That made Android No. 1 ahead of Nokia Oyj’s Symbian and Apple Inc. (AAPL)’s iOS.
Apple also plans to introduce NFC features in its iPhone and iPad tablet, Richard Doherty, director of consulting firm Envisioneering Group., said in January. Nokia and its software partnerMicrosoft Corp. (MSFT) are working on NFC functionality, too.
In the U.S., Google kick-started adoption of NFC features last fall, with a service called Hotpot in Portland, Oregon. Vendors such as Voodoo Doughnut have put special tags on their doors that can be tapped with an enabled phone to give users access to reviews, menus and directions.
ISIS, Apple
Users of Google Wallet will be able to use any credit card to deposit money onto a digital Google prepaid card contained within their phones. Credit-card networks hope mobile wallets like Google’s will help them boost revenue.
“This is part of a broader strategy that Mastercard has been working on to use mobile phones as a platform to displace cash and checks around the world,” said Chris McWilton, president of U.S. markets for Mastercard. “Mastercard believes an open system, at the end of the day, is the way to make mobile payments ubiquitous around the world.”
In NFC-based mobile payments and marketing services, Google will square off against wireless carriers, other handset makers and financial institutions like Visa Inc. (V) that are promoting their own mobile wallets and discount offers.
ISIS, a joint venture of AT&T Inc. (T), Verizon Wireless and T- Mobile USA, plans to introduce a similar service in two cities, including Salt Lake City, in early 2012.
New Paper: Mobile Cloud Computing May 25, 2011
Posted by chetan in : 4G, AORTA, BRIC, Connected Devices, Enterprise Mobility, European Wireless Market, Infrastructure, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Future Forward, Mobile Search, Mobile Traffic, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 1 comment so farMobile Cloud Computing
http://www.chetansharma.com/mobilecloudcomputing.htm
Sponsored by Real Networks
These are exciting times in the wireless industry. The innovation in technology, services, and business models is driving the global industry to new heights. While the global markets were feeling the pain of a brutal recession, the wireless industry for the most part sidestepped the crisis, especially in the North American and Asian markets. Mobile data revenues around the world have been growing at a steady pace. Given the lucrative nature of the market, there are more developers focused on the mobile ecosystem than ever before.
The mobile industry is going through significant transition from being voice-centric to data-centric, from consumers spending 90% of their time talking to being engaged on mobile data services 80% of the time. In Japan, Softbank became the first major operator to have more revenues come from data than voice. Others will follow. In the US, over 35% of the revenues are coming from data services and the data revenues will account for over 50% of the revenues by early 2013.
Mobility is also getting ingrained in the everyday objects, which make up for a fundamental reassessment of how things are done across industries in almost every region of the world. It is not just the phones and the data cards that are being enabled by the broadband connectivity but also the electronic devices such as the tablets, eReaders, automobiles, picture frames, and cameras.
Anything that can be connected will be connected making access omnipresent.
In such a multi-device world, the role of cloud computing becomes central to the content access and sharing. Consumers won’t like to store and upload by device type but would want the same level of functionality available across all their devices necessitating the need for mobile cloud computing. In a mobile environment, one has to contend with the limitations of screen size, the variability of devices, and the network latency. Therefore, the cloud requirements will vary by context.
With the emergence of the smartphones, the mobile operators are being gradually cut out of the value added services space with most of the revenues shifting to rest of the ecosystem. Mobile cloud computing provides an opportunity to leverage their network infrastructure assets and their consumer relationships to open up new revenue streams.
This paper will explore the mobile cloud computing market, its drivers, the opportuniies and the key elements of success in this space. Further, the paper discusses why operators should take a more active role in this space. Mobile cloud computing is here to stay. The winners and losers will be decided based on how players will adapt to empower consumers.
Offer of the Year: Subscribe and get the MFF book for free
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentLast year, we put together an exceptional collection of essays on the future of mobile (see the details below). Join our highly acclaimed mailing list that informs and engages about the mobile industry and its future and get the book pdf for free. An offer even Groupon can’t match 
You can check out our Mobile Future Forward thought-leadership summit that produced this book here.
We had a special project as part of the Mobile Future Forward Initiative. It related to a limited edition book published by Futuretext exclusively for the event. Some of these summit speakers put their thoughts and ideas on paper that resulted in this book. We are very grateful for the authors (and their respective organizations) who carved out time from their busy schedules to pen some really insightful commentary on how they see the mobile industry evolve both holistically and in the various segments of the ecosystem. While the views are quite diverse and bring together perspectives from different angles, but everyone agrees, 2010-2020 will be one heck of a time period for innovation.
The book had the following pieces:
1. The Next 10 Years - 15 Trends That Matter - Chetan Sharma
2. Sustainability in a Mobile World - Stephen David
3. Managing The Mobile Data Explosion - Wim Sweldens
4. Show Me The Money! - Brian Shepherd
5. Mobility Revolutionizing Every Product, Service, and Process - Russ McGuire
6. How Constant Connection Is Changing Our World - Ken Denman
7. 4G: The Next Big Thing - Mike Sievert
8. The Untapped Potential of Mobile Advertising and Marketing - Takayuki Hoshuyama
9. Mobile Operators are at the Center of Mobile Advertising - Krishna Vedati
10. Mobile Challenges - Three Imperatives in the Changing Game - Russ Shaw
11. Interacting With Everyday Things - Amir Mashkoori
12. In The End, It’ll All Go Through “Browse and Buy” - Anil Malhotra
13. The Future of Mobile: 5 Trends That Matter Most - Jay Emmet
14. India’s Mobile Future Forward - Subba Rao
15. Cellphone As The New Computing Platform - Sailesh Chutani
16. What 5 billion Phones Could Mean for Health Literacy - Jon Stross
17. Privacy: From Compliance To Competitive Advantage - Sarla Sharma
18. Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era - Chetan Sharma
US Mobile Data Market Update Q1 2011 May 9, 2011
Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, ARPU, BRIC, Connected Devices, Indian Wireless Market, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Breakfast Series, Mobile Commerce, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Future, Mobile Future Forward, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Payments, Mobile Search, Mobile TV, Mobile Traffic, Mobile Users, Mobile Wallet, Speaking Engagements, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment|
US Mobile Data Market Update Q1 2011 http://www.chetansharma.com/usmarketupdateq12011.htm
The US wireless data market grew 4% Q/Q and 23% Y/Y to reach $15.4B in mobile data service revenues in Q1 2011 and is on course to increase Y/Y by 22% to $67B in 2011. Of all the segments, the connected device category registered the highest growth at 9.6% Q/Q while the postpaid subscriptions growth was almost flat for the quarter. Connected devices (including tablets, M2M, telematics, eReaders, etc.) now account for 8% of the subscription base. For the first time, the smartphone sales crossed the 50% share mark in the US. Also, the US now accounts for approximately one-third of all smartphone sales in the world. The Big News - AT&T’s proposed acquisition of T-Mobile The big news during Q1 2011 was of course the blockbuster announcement of the acquisition of T-Mobile USA. We had pondered on the viability of 4 operators in the US market in the past. All the major mobile market eventually settle with three main players controlling the market. So, the news wasn’t a surprise as we had expected something to break loose and conform to the natural market evolution. T-Mobile US has been under tremendous pressure for the last 2 years being unable to expand its postpaid base despite modernizing its network/backhaul and introducing a slew of impressive handsets. It was getting squeezed both from the top (Verizon and AT&T) and from the bottom (MetroPCS, etc.) while duking it out with Sprint in the middle. The decision window was closing as Deutsche Telekom had to decide if it wanted to invest in LTE or not (in the US market). Given that the parent business has been under pressure as well, it decided to take the most attractive available option. The proposed merger will obviously have an impact on the market structure. The market power will get concentrated in the top 2. The HHI3 Index will go from .22 to .31 but the HHI3 value will be at par with UK, Canada (though the Canadian market is not a good proxy for a competitive market), and some of the other markets. The biggest task for the US regulators will be to analyze the impact on the consumer interest and service pricing on a market-by-market basis. Putting things into perspective, this move is not unusual for a developed market. On average, the top 3 operators in the developed markets around the world control 94% of the market. The proposed merger roughly resembles the merger that took place in UK last year when T-Mobile and Orange, the number 3 and 4 player (each having approximately 19% of the share) respectively in the market merged to form Everything Everywhere and become the number 1 player in the market with 38% market share. However, if we look at the history of competitiveness in the US mobile market, the market and revenue concentration will be at its highest in the history of the US wireless industry. Such a move is likely to have an impact on the ecosystem depending on the regulatory policies. Last month, we published a first of its kind in-depth study on competition in mobile markets -“Competition and the Evolution of Mobile Markets - A Study of Competition in Global Mobile Markets”. The paper presents the analysis and an in-depth analytical framework to study the competitive landscape in the global mobile markets. Transparency as a competitive advantage An unfortunate side effect of an industry moving too fast is that regulations are often behind the curve (we discuss the role of regulators in our Competition paper mentioned above). Q2 will see a lot of heated debates around privacy and competition. Current regulatory framework in the US seems ineffective to meet the demands of the digital age. The indecision and a weak regulatory framework can be harmful to the ecosystem. While the industry has done a poor job of explaining targeting and relevancy and the associated consumer benefits, by over reacting, regulators can mess up the potential for better services. It is not the mechanics they need to regulate but the “transparency” of services and policies in plain English. Regulating transparency seems to be a more effective way. The ecosystem players will do better if they use transparency not as a threat but as a competitive advantage. The new troika - AAG A couple of years back, I gave a talk about the changing mobile ecosystem and what it means to compete in an environment where the ecosystem stacks get reshuffled every few months. I wrote about that in an essay that was published in the Mobile Future Forward book last year. While innovation is coming from all angles - fast and furious - the troika of Apple, Amazon, and Google is leading the way right now. Their interests are clashing in multiple dimensions - device, user data, cloud, advertising, local, commerce, books, etc. In a fast changing environment, either you define the market or be defined by it. The journey from being an arch-rival to a frenemy (and vice-versa) can be a short one. A significant shift As we mentioned in our last research note, 2010 marked the milestone of the start of a new computing and communications era. For the first time in the US, the smartphones shipments exceeded the traditional computer segments (that consists of desktops, notebooks and netbooks). Smartphones and the connected devices now account for 51% of the computing devices revenue in the US (devices include desktops, notebooks, netbooks, tablets, eReaders, and conventional feature and smartphones) The growth in of connected devices The connected devices category is the fastest growing segment of the market and while the ARPUs are low, due to the higher margins this segment will prove to be the most profitable in the coming years. By the end of 2011, connected devices will be commanding double digit market share. However, not all sub-segments are going to be successful in the operator channel until multi-device data pricing plans are introduced. Apple’s iPad has been, as expected, a runaway success. Several other tablets launched in 2011 but none has come close to being a credible challenge. OEMs will do well to segment the market and price accordingly rather than follow Apple in performance and pricing. Market is fairly young and there is tremendous room for growth. Another trend that is obvious is the development of an alternate ecosystem. 85% of the tablets use primarily use WiFi for connectivity meaning that OEMs need more diverse distribution channels. Operators who start to bundle multiple devices by single data plans and data buckets are going to see a better yield in this category. We do expect multi-device or family data plans to start being introduced in the US market in 2011. Also, the $200-250 Android tablets will start to emerge during the second half of the year to broaden the choices for the consumers. Turmoil in the OEM land Another headline grabbing event in Q1 2011 was that of Microsoft’s partnership with Nokia. Nokia’s lack of a credible response to Apple and Android has left the company scrambling for survival. Nokia still dominates the unit sales but the domination of Apple and the Android OEMs has taken away significant profits and ecosystem mindshare. Industry is awaiting the first release of the Windows phone from Nokia which will have a lot riding on it. If the release of iPhone 5 coincides with this release, the Christmas selling season will be interesting. The OEMs that have impressed the most are HTC and Samsung. The collapsed release cycles and the fierce pace of introduction of new devices have caught many of the traditional players unprepared. These things have a tendency of going in cycles so we expect the pendulum to swing again in the next 12-24 months. There is a fight for the #3 spot and it is likely that Windows will fill that void. However, for developers, iOS and Android are the only platforms they need to worry about right now. Verizon finally got its iPhone and as expected it didn’t make a big dent into the AT&T’s financials. Platforms - Horizontal vs. Vertical Over the past few quarters, we have seen a fascinating battle brew between the horizontal (Android and Windows) and the vertical (Apple, RIM, Nokia) device platforms. In the US, in the smartphone category, the horizontal platforms (primarily Android) has been gaining significant share since Q1 2010 and now have over 65% share of the new devices sold while the vertical platforms’ share has declined to 35%. However, the revenues and profits are still dominated by the vertical platforms. What to expect in the coming months? All this has setup an absolutely fascinating 2011 in the communication/computing industry. Convergence is everywhere and is leading to a fundamental reset of the value chains and ecosystems. We are going to be discussing the ins and outs of how the industry is going to evolve in the next decade in our Sept 12th mobile thought leadership summit – Mobile Future Forward which is bringing exceptional industry thought-leaders, inventors, and doers to brainstorm, discuss, and debate what’s next. Hope you can join us. As usual, we will be keeping a very close eye on the micro- and macro-trends and reporting on the market on a regular basis in various private and public settings. Against this backdrop, the analysis of the Q1 2011 US wireless data market is: Service Revenues
ARPU
Subscribers
· Sprint is on good comeback adding over million customers. Sprint extended its streak of positive net-adds to four quarters by adding over a million subs for the second straight time since Q1 2006. · T-Mobile however continues to be sandwiched between the top three and the next three and is having a hard time adding postpaid subscribers. Applications and Services
Handsets
Global Update
Your feedback is always welcome. Thanks. Chetan Sharma We will be keeping a close eye on the trends in the wireless data sector in our blog, twitter feeds, future research reports, and articles. The next US Wireless Data Market update will be released in Aug 2011. The next Global Wireless Data Market update will be issued in Jun 2011. Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this paper are our clients. |
Announcing Mobile Future Forward 2011 May 4, 2011
Posted by chetan in : Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Future, Mobile Future Forward, Student Paper Contest, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a commentI am really excited to announce or 2011 Mobile Future Forward. We have been working on it for a while and thanks to our wonderful partners and speakers, the program is starting to take shape. As usual, we are deeply focused on the understanding the underlying currents of the mobile ecosystem and how behavior, technologies, and business models will be morphed over time.
First of all, a big thanks to our current partners in this endeavor
We are also grateful to our fantastic thought-leaders who are eager to share and discuss the future of mobile. Current list of outstanding speakers includes:
- Abhi Ingle, VP, AT&T Wireless
- Amit Gupta, SVP and CTO, INQMobile
- Charlie Herrin, SVP - Technology, Comcast
- Danny Bowman, President, Sprint
- David Messenger, EVP, Head - Online/Mobile, American Express
- Erick Tseng, Head - Mobile, Facebook
- Erik Moreno, SVP, Fox
- Gibu Thomas, SVP - Mobile, Walmart
- Glenn Lurie, President, AT&T Wireless
- Hank Skorny, Chief Strategy Officer, Real Networks
- Jason McKenzie, President, HTC-Americas
- Jerry Batt, CIO, PulteGroup
- Ken Denman, CEO, Openwave
- Kris Rinne, SVP - Networks, AT&T Wireless
- Mike Mulica, President, Synchronoss Technologies
- Paul Palmieri, CEO, Millennial Media
- Prof. Cliff Nass, Human Computer Interaction, Stanford University
- Rob Glaser, Partner, Accel
- Sanjiv Ahuja, CEO, LightSquared
- Stephen Bye, CTO/VP - Technology & Strategy, Sprint
- Steve Elfman, President, Sprint
- Steve Mollenkopf, Group President, Qualcomm
- Suja Chandrasekaran, CIO, Timberland
- Will Hsu, Chief Product Officer, AT&T Interactive
We will keep you posted as we have more updates and news.
Mobile Future Forward Early bird registration is open now.
We are also launching our Global Student Paper Contest. If you are a student or you know of one in college, this is a great way to meet the movers and shakers of the industry. Last year’s contest was a runaway success and we are working hard to make this year’s memorable as well.
Thanks and hope to see you at the summit.
Partner Event – paidContent Mobile
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentOur media partners at paidContent are putting together a pretty good mobile event on May 18th in NYC with speakers from Fox, MLB, Rovio, Time, and others. Friends of Chetan Sharma Consulting can avail a 15% discount by using the code MFPC15.
http://paidcontent.org/event/paidcontent-mobile-2011/register.
New Research: Competition and the Evolution of Mobile Markets April 28, 2011
Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, ARPU, BRIC, Carriers, Devices, Enterprise Mobility, European Wireless Market, Gaming, General, India, Indian Wireless Market, Infrastructure, Intellectual Property, International Trade, Japan Wireless Market, Location Based Services, M&A, Mergers and Acquisitions, Messaging, Middleware, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Networks, Patents, Privacy, Smart Phones, US Wireless Market, Wi-Fi, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment|
Competition and the Evolution of Mobile Markets A Study of Competition in Global Mobile Markets
http://chetansharma.com/mobilecompetition.htm Over the course of the last decade, mobile communications has become an essential part of the global fabric of evolution. With almost 70% global subscription penetration as of 2010, mobility is being embedded into almost every facet of our lives. Mobility is also spreading across verticals whether it is m-pesa in Kenya or SMS based counterfeit medicine detection in Ghana or paying for your coffee using your NFC enabled mobile phone in a Tokyo café or watching the cricket world cup broadcast while hiking the Yangtze river near Tibet. Consumers expect access to information everywhere they are and the ecosystem is responding with continued innovation, which has become extremely critical in managing the competitiveness of nations. It is also apparent that some of the innovation and market dynamics has been evidenced by the competitiveness of these markets at different levels – network, devices, and services. While the market entry conditions into the devices and software services markets have gone through significant overhaul this last decade, the competitiveness framework of the mobile networks has been more structured and controlled in many instances. Given the importance of the mobile network infrastructure to every nation’s competitiveness, security, and productivity, it is useful to understand how the “competitive mobile markets” are formed. In theory, the perfectly competitive markets are in the best interest of the consumers as they provide the best value given the competitive dynamics and the equilibrium provides good checks and balances for the ecosystem. The global mobile networks have shown a remarkable adherence to the “Rule of Three” which states that in any mature industry, 3 top players dominate the market. Sometimes it has been dictated by the regulators and in other instances by the markets. Some markets like in Europe have settled into a state of equilibrium while other hyper growth markets like India are shuffling to find the right balance. The elements of globalization are also shaping how mobile network operators grow. The regulators and the political class are increasingly looking at mobile networks as national assets and any foreign ownership generally goes through tremendous scrutiny. Having worked in major mobile markets around the world, we have been intrigued by the framework for a competitive market and this is the theme we explore in this working paper. Having the front row seat in an industry that is growing stupendously has given us some unique perspective on the competitive forces at work in the mobile space. We studied the competitive landscape in 40 top mobile markets around the globe. This paper presents the analysis and an in-depth analytical framework to study the competitive landscape in the global mobile markets. Download Paper (45 pages, 2MB) Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this paper are our clients. |
Mobile Breakfast Series – The Universe of Connected Devices
Posted by chetan in : Carriers, Connected Devices, Devices, European Wireless Market, Mobile Applications, Mobile Breakfast Series, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Future Forward, US Wireless Market, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a commentEarlier this month, we hosted our 6th Mobile Breakfast Series Event in Seattle at the picturesque Columbia Tower Club. The topic is something that has been occupying everyone’s attention lately with some terrific growth numbers.
We were doing some math earlier this year and the chart above illustrates how fast the mobile ecosystem is subsuming the computing ecosystem as they become one and the same.
As you might have noted in our 2010 US market update, connected devices is the highest growing category in the market at 55%. It is creating new revenue streams and enabling new verticals to get mobilized. It is also disrupting the traditional ecosystems. This made it a perfect time to discuss the topic in-depth.
Our panelists were:
Tyler Davidson, VP, Amdocs
Martin Fichter, VP - Product Management Americas, HTC
Mike Mulica, President and Head of Strategy, Synchronoss Technologies
Ilja Laurs, Founder and CEO, Getjar
Erik Kling, Director - M2M, Vodafone Global Enterprise Group
Wilson Rothman, Deputy Technology and Science Editor, MSNBC.com (moderator)
As always, we try to bring players across the ecosystem to have a good discussion from multiple angles. Our panel didn’t disappoint.
First a bit about the panelists to give you some background on their viewpoints. Erik Kling is deep into M2M and Vodafone is pursuing a very aggressive M2M strategy worldwide with some smart value proposition to the enterprises. That can put some of the domestic operators at a disadvantage. Tyler Davidson focuses his energy on managing customers but also thinks deeply about the management of media in the connected world. The rage of apps is carrying from smartphones to tablets and other connected devices as well and Ilja Laurs knows a thing or two about apps – running the largest independent app store and being quite successful at it.
HTC just crossed Nokia in revenues which was just unthinkable even last year. HTC has run a very effective strategy in devices and Martin Fichter is one of the guys who is making things happen in the US market. If you have an iPhone, you have been touched by Synchronoss Technologies. They activate the iOS and other devices. A billion $ company you might have never heard of. Mike Mulica has deep experience in the mobile space and is driving the strategy of connected devices and related software forward. Last but not the least, our moderator Wilson Rothman has been covering gadgets most of his adult life and is a darn good moderator.
The highlights of the discussion was as follows:
- M2M is getting good traction in consumer electronics, telematics, and medical. Vodafone is doing a ton of business with the medical/pharma companies who would like connected devices without the worry of roaming, certification, etc. Within a year, Vodafone’s M2M group has grown up to 200 people and they are hiring at a rapid pace if anyone is looking.
- Other M2M areas that are evolving are: security, remote access, home monitoring, etc.
- Connected devices are accelerating the move from voice to data
- The fact that AT&T is advertising M2M Vending machines on TV shows it is serious business.
- HTC passed Nokia in market cap on the back of Android and the 4G devices. For tablets, WiFi is a preferred route rather than operators as that’s what the demand is.
- With connected devices avalanche coming our way, WiFi is going to be extremely important, need better technologies for WiFi/Cellular migration.
- Consumers chose a device or a service first and the operator is now an afterthought.
- Operators need an open environment to operate but want to create a preference for them – it is like “controlled openness” like Microsoft so they can certify devices and apps that go on their network
- All this connectivity does need billions of $ of investment so there is a need for a toll for these services. However, we need to reduce friction with security, payment, and plans.
- Apple doesn’t want to be an operator but does want a free ride like NetFlix and YouTube.
- WiFi is not only necessary, it is essential for the survival of the industry.
- Amazon launching an app store is a good thing for the industry, puts pressure on Google a bit.
- Companies like Skype would pay the operators for better bandwidth but the process is a bit cumbersome.
- Battery Life. Enuff Said.
We also announced that our annual thought-leadership summit on mobile - “Mobile Future Forward” will take place on Sept 12th in Seattle. We have some terrific speakers lined up which lead to some fabulous discussion. Stay tuned for more information early May.
My utmost thanks to David Smith, SVP at Enterprise Ireland for his notes from the event. It helped refresh my memory and pointed out things that I had missed amidst running around.
Thanks all for coming and making it a successful outing. Our next Mobile Breakfast Series is going to be on Mobile Commerce and Payments in late June. Stay Tuned for details.
In case you missed … April 5, 2011
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentStories from March
NYTimes - Spoiled by the All-in-One Gadget
NYTimes - For Consumers, Little to Cheer in AT&T Deal
NYTimes - AT&T to Buy T-Mobile USA for $39 Billion
CNBC - Smartphone race (video)
AllThingsD - Your Move, Verizon- Is There a Sprint Gambit?
GigaOM - What AT&T/T-Mobile merger means for Innovation
GigaOM - AT&T/T-Mobile Merger: A Regulatory Quagmire?
WirelessWeek - 15 Trends that matter (Part I)
WirelessWeek - 15 Trends that matter (Part II)
WirelessWeek - 15 Trends that matter (Part III)
ReadWriteWeb - How 50 Billion Connected Devices would Transform Marketing and Everyday Life
Seatte Times - T-Mobile USA sold to AT&T for $39 Billion
MobileMarketer - BestBuy to become MVNO
MobileMarketer - CTIA attendees have mixed emotions regarding mobile marketing
DigiTimes - AT&T/T-Mobile merger makes US market entry harder
PCWorld - Sandvine Turns to Citrix to Cut Mobile Latency
SeekingAlpha - AT&T Aims for US Wireless Carrier Top Spot
ReadWriteWeb - The Future of Angry Birds and What it Means
Asia-Pacific Business and Technology Report - It’s Time to Shine for Web and Mobile Apps in Asia
Seattle Times - Could Seattle Become the Detroit of Wireless?
BizReport - Mobile on the move but are brands moving along?
MobileMarketer - Mobile’s share of digital advertising to quadruple
MarketingVox - Marketing Data Roundup
AIM - 10 fold increase forecast for mobile ads
4GWE - Sprint nears agreement with Clearwire
GigaOM - Macheen’s Dreams of a Broadband Cloud
Eweek - Tablets, E-Readers, Data Bundles to Drive a Strong US Data Market
Internet.com - Mobile App Revenue Pegged at 38B for 2015
Mobiledia - Web-Connected devices push mobile data to $67B
EnterpriseMobileToday - Tablets are future cash cows for carriers
BusinessInsider - What The Smartphone Revolution Means For Gamers, Filmmakers, and Music Producers
ReadWriteWeb - Report finds connected devices, not phones, leading the explosion in mobile wireless
Moconews - iPads and other connected devices driving new subscriber growth at carriers
Light Reading - Android Cheat Sheet: How to Beat the iPad 2
Daily Wireless - Data Revenues Growing Fast
NYTimes - Connected devices are industry’s future
