Mobile Future Forward – Connected Universe. Unlimited Opportunities July 27, 2011
Posted by chetan in : 4G, AORTA, Applications, Connected Devices, Mobile Applications, Mobile Cloud Computing, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Future Forward, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a commentThe theme of Mobile Future Forward this year is Connected Universe. Unlimited Opportunities. As a long time reader, you know the very foundation of this blog is depicted in its name – AORTA – Always On Real-Time Access. Since my early days in the mobile world, I longed for a time when connectivity became ubiquitous. In fact, even in my early books in 2000 (Wireless Internet Enterprise Applications) and 2002 (Wireless Data Services with Dr. Yasuhisa Nakamura, CTO, NTT DoCoMo), I had extensively talked about the connected universe. We are finally approaching that vision. To talk about this in more depth, we have the two distinguished leaders who are at the center of it all – Glenn Lurie, President – Emerging Devices, Resale & Partnership at AT&T Mobility and Danny Bowman, President – Connected Devices at Sprint.
Connected Universe. Unlimited Opportunities.
The connected devices segment is the fastest growing category of the market and is also the most profitable due to higher margins. Connected devices are impacting a rethink in virtually all key verticals – healthcare, housing, travel, entertainment, communication, energy, and others. It is also disrupting the traditional value chains and revenue models. Which segments are yielding the highest ROI? Does computing fundamentally change forever or are connected devices just a part of the PC hub? How does M2M fit into the world of smartphones and tablets? How are businesses and solution providers taking advantage of the growing connected universe? What’s most important for the consumer and what are their expectations on design, pricing, and connectivity? From connected cars to wireless pill bottles, our world is going to change forever. Meet the leaders who are shaping the growing connected devices ecosystem to get insights that will inform your strategy and decide your future revenue streams.
Glenn Lurie, President - Emerging Devices, Resale & Partnerships , AT&T Mobility
Danny Bowman, President – Connected Devices, Sprint
Data growth and payments July 24, 2011
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentHad a chance to talk to NY Times and Bloomberg Businesweek on iphone, data traffic, congestion, and payments.
NY Times story deals with the impact of iPhone on Verizon and the networks are faring
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/23/technology/iphone-bolsters-verizon-results.html
One issue with the introduction of the iPhone to Verizon was whether the carrier would buckle under the crush of the new data-intensive users. It has not, which analysts attributed to the fact that Verizon had several years to upgrade its network and infrastructure while watching AT&T struggle with this problem. “Verizon was better prepared thanks to AT&T,” said Chetan Sharma, an independent wireless analyst.
But even AT&T’s network, long the source of complaints from beleaguered users who said they got poor cellular reception and suffered from dropped calls, has improved over all, Mr. Sharma said.
“Verizon’s had Android for a long time,” said Mr. Sharma, who keeps a close eye on the industry. “This was the first real test between an iPhone and Android and consumers still gravitate towards the iPhone.”
Bloomberg did an in-depth piece on mobile payments
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/pay-as-you-go-with-smartphones-07142011.html
For any new approach to really catch on, it has to offer some compelling advantage. “If there’s not a significant improvement from the past, either in convenience or in some form of monetary value to the merchant or consumer, payment technologies generally don’t catch on,” says Chetan Sharma, a mobile industry consultant. “There has to be something different about a new technology that makes life better.”
We will have more thoughts and research coming on both topics in the coming days. Stay tuned. Of course, we will covering both these topics in-depth at our Mobile Future Forward Summit.
RCR Bellevue Conference July 23, 2011
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentI will be speaking and moderating at the upcoming event organized by our good friends and MFF partner – RCR Wireless in Bellevue on Aug 2nd.
http://rcrlocal.com/bellevue/events/ (be sure to register with partner code for 33% discount)
Will kick things off with a keynote on mobile evolution and the opportunities
11:30 am
General Session: Mobile Evolution 2.0: Managing for Growth and Profits
Chetan Sharma, President, Chetan Sharma Consulting
The last 10 years saw a gradual awareness and increase of mobile data services around the world. In countries like Japan, mobile data is already generating the bulk of operator revenues. The networks around the world are starting to come under duress. The growth in revenues and the management of the margins will be defined by how well the players are able to adapt to the shifting sands. The talk will take a look at the trends around the world, specifically look at the various strategies that need to be deployed, and discuss the evolving landscape this coming decade.
and then have a chance to moderate a great panel on monetization of broadband
04:30 pm
General Session: Monetizing Mobile Broadband Networks
Moderator: Chetan Sharma;
Brian Lent, CTO, Medio Systems
Jeff Giard, Director, T-Mobile
Tyler Davidson, VP, Amdocs
Vern Fotheringham, Chairman, CTB
Steve French, VP, Newbay
Value added services discussions are a dime a dozen; while over the top service providers enjoy astronomical valuations and IPOs, Experienced industry insiders and investors look into the crystal ball to discuss how carriers are going to drive ROI for shareholders.
Hope to see some of you there
Mobile Future Forward – Prelim Agenda Announced July 20, 2011
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentWe have been hard at work this summer to put together a stellar agenda for our upcoming mobile thought-leadership summit in Seattle on Sept 12th.
Again, thanks to our wonderful partners – Qualcomm, AT&T Interactive, OpenMarket, Ericsson, Openwave, Synchronoss Technologies, Real Networks, Millennial Media for making the summit possible.
Below is the prelim agenda. Super Saver expires July 22nd.
More details at http://www.mobilefutureforward.com
Sept 11th 2011
Speakers Dinner
6:00 - 8:00 pm
Sept 12th 2011
Registration Opens. Breakfast and Networking
6:30am
8:15 am
Introduction and Welcome - Chetan Sharma, President, Chetan Sharma Consulting
Mobile Future Forward: Connected Universe. Unlimited Opportunities.
The DNA (Devices, Network, and Applications) of the mobile ecosystem is changing. What opportunities will emerge during the course of this decade? Where are the new billion dollar markets? We will explore these questions and more throughout the day with the influential minds who are shaping the mobile industry.
8:30 am
Keynote - Steve Mollenkopf, EVP and Group President, Qualcomm
9:00 am
Disruption is in the Air
Disruption is the fundamental tenet of progress. Whether it is the technologies, the business models, the players or the alliances, disruptive forces are essential in making things better for the consumer and the larger ecosystem. Is 4G a game change? What does the wholesale business model do to the data economics? Is the halving of the device lifecycle good or bad? Who manages the customer and where does the value shift? Meet the two leaders who are working to disrupt the mobile industry.
Sanjiv Ahuja, CEO, LightSquared
Jason MacKenzie, President, HTC Americas
9:30 am
Design, User Experience and Consumer Behavior
The number of connected devices per user is increasing very quickly. Some users have 10-20 connected screens in the household and the number is only going to increase. How does product and service design leverage this phenomenon? How do monetization strategies change? What are user experience and pricing expectations? How does the value shift between the players? How do developers take advantage of n-screens? The panel will deal with the realities of playing in the n-screen world and debate how to make the most of it.
John SanGiovanni, Cofounder and VP - Product Design, Zumobi (moderator)
Prof. Cliff Nass, Human Computer Interface, Stanford University
Mark Rolston, Chief Creative Officer, Frog Design
Cliff Kushler, CTO and Cofounder, Swype
10:15 am
Playing in the N-Screen Media World
The number of connected devices per user is steadily increasing. Some users have 10-20 connected screens in the household and the number is only going to increase. How does product and service design leverage this phenomenon? How do monetization strategies change? What are user experience and pricing expectations? How does the value shift between the players? How do developers take advantage of n-screens? The panel will deal with the realities of playing in the n-screen world and debate how to make the most of it.
Paul Palmieri, CEO and Cofounder, Millennial Media
Charlie Herrin, EVP – Technology and Products, Comcast
Jeremiah Zinn, EVP – Digital Products, MTV Networks
Eric Anderson, VP - Content and Product Solutions, Samsung
Frank Barbieri, SVP – Emerging Platforms, YuMe (moderator)
11:00 am
Break
11:15 am
TBD
12 - 1:30 pm
Lunch
Demonstrations – Visions of the Future
Meet the entrepreneurs who are working on technologies that are going to impact the mobile ecosystem and consumers in profound ways. A fascinating dive into the world of biometrics, display, advertising, retail, sports, and consumer electronics.
1:30 pm
Monetizing the Mobile Network
Traditionally, there has been a direct correlation between the mobile network usage and revenue/profits. However, the significant mobile data consumption, lack of adequate spectrum, ecosystem disruption by the Internet players, and the changing of the consumer expectations have provided the opportunity for operators to rethink how they look at their network from a technology perspective but more importantly from a monetization angle. How will operator grow their revenue base beyond measuring the bits and bytes? What network assets can create long-term sustainable revenues and value? Does the role of the operator morph over time? How does the landscape different in different regions of the world? Do operator CTO and CMO look at the network differently? This expert panel will delve into the “future of network monetization.”
Ken Denman, CEO, Openwave (moderator)
Kris Rinne, SVP - Network and Architecture, AT&T Mobility
Janet Schijns, VP – Business Solutions Group, Verizon Wireless
Mathew Oommen, President, Reliance Industries
Mobile Enterprise and the CIO Prism
Mobile is influencing corporate IT in multiple ways – devices, software, security, collaboration, cloud, and investments. How is mobile enabling the enterprise of tomorrow? How are the various verticals adapting to the confluence of broadband network, tablets and smartphones, cloud, and enterprise software. How is the economics of supporting a mobile worker changing? How does mobile virtualization and BYOD impact the enterprise? How are enterprises using mobile to engage with their customers, shrink supply-chains, and drive more efficiency out of their enterprise dollars. We will look at the evolving mobile landscape through the CIO prism. This panel of enterprise veterans will delve into the significant problems they are solving and how they see mobile evolving in the enterprise?
Suja Chandrashekaran, CIO, Timberland
Abhi Ingle, VP – Advanced Business Solutions, AT&T Wireless
Jerry Batt, CIO, PulteGroup
Subba Rao, CEO, Razi Healthcare
2:30 pm
Mobile Commerce & Payments
Mobile is fundamentally reshaping how consumers spend. Mobile not only influences purchase behavior but also all moments of truth. Mobile is thus helping close the nirvana gap for brands and advertisers who seek to connect advertising to actual transactions. All ecommerce will eventually be mobile. How are the various players preparing for the new world of mobile commerce and payments? NFC has been around for some time but will it really help in moving the money around? Will the killer NFC application be commerce, payments, advertising, loyalty programs, or something else? How do the mobile technologies influence the instore experience? The panel will chaff through the hype and noise in the segment to discuss where the value is, who benefits, who wins, and how long before mobile becomes central to the multi-trillion dollar global spend?
David Messenger, EVP and Head of Online/Mobile, American Express Company
Gibu Thomas, EVP – Online/Mobile, WalMart
Dale Nitschke, former President, Target
Mobile Big Data: The Next Frontier for Innovation, Competition, and Opportunities
Data is everywhere. Mobile Cloud is Booming. Data is driving Knowledge. Having the best knowledge about the user to help drive transaction is simply the most valuable currency of commerce. With so much data being generated, how do we efficiently sift through it and make sense to enable engagement and commerce in a fraction of a millisecond? What is data teaching us about the consumer behavior, future product design, and the competitive landscape? What are the implications for consumer privacy and data security? What new opportunities emerge due to mobile big data? Who will own the user context and how will the knowledge translate into transactions? How do the app developers leverage big data? Our expert panel of engineers and executives will delve into what will be a key trend for this decade.
Braxton Woodham, Head of Engineering, AVOS
Joe Megibow, VP and GM – Mobile and Analytics, Expedia
Hank Skorny, Chief Strategy Officer, Real Networks
Jay Emmett, GM, OpenMarket, SVP, Amdocs
Ramneek Bhasin, GM and VP, TheFind
3:30 pm
Break
4:00 pm
At the Intersection of Mobile, Social, Location, and Gaming
The worlds of mobile, social, location, and gaming are colliding to create enormous opportunities that impact devices, software, applications, services, cloud, interface design, and consumer expectations. How are entrepreneurs taking advantage of the social and interest graphs, open APIs, fast networks and processors, and different input modalities? Meet the innovators who are creating tremendous value and are at the epicenter of this evolving trend.
Will Hsu, Chief Product Officer, AT&T Interactive
Amit Gupta, SVP and CTO, INQMobile
Tim Chang, Partner, NVP (moderator)
Rob Glaser, Chairman, Real Networks
Designing the Mobile Infrastructure for the Next Decade
Mobile Data demand is doubling every year. For many operators more than 75% of their sales is smartphones. The connected devices segment is growing at a 55% Y/Y rate. With seaming insatiable demand, what are infrastructure leaders doing to help out the operators over the next 10 years. What technologies and products are on the horizon to solve some fundamental data network issues? How far do heterogeneous networks, self-organizing networks, offloading, and all-IP infrastructure elements take us? Sprint’s CTO will put the industry problems (and opportunities) in front of the vendors to figure out how we are going to cope with the mobile data tsunami.
Stephen Bye, CTO, Sprint (moderator)
Ken Wirth, President – End-to-End Network Solutions, Alcatel-Lucent
Mike Mulica, President, Synchronoss Technologies
Manoj Leelanivas, EVP and GM Business Group, Juniper Networks
Mikael Back, VP – Product and Portfolio Management, Ericsson
Erik Moreno, SVP – Corporate Development, FOX Networks Group
5:00 pm
Connected Universe. Unlimited Opportunities.
The connected devices segment is the fastest growing category of the market and is also the most profitable due to higher margins. Connected devices are impacting a rethink in virtually all key verticals – healthcare, housing, travel, entertainment, communication, energy, and others. It is also disrupting the traditional value chains and revenue models. Which segments are yielding the highest ROI? Does computing fundamentally change forever or are connected devices just a part of the PC hub? How does M2M fit into the world of smartphones and tablets? How are businesses and solution providers taking advantage of the growing connected universe? What’s most important for the consumer and what are their expectations on design, pricing, and connectivity? From connected cars to wireless pill bottles, our world is going to change forever. Meet the leaders who are shaping the growing connected devices ecosystem to get insights that will inform your strategy and decide your future revenue streams.
Glenn Lurie, President - Emerging Devices, Resale & Partnerships , AT&T Mobility
Danny Bowman, President – Connected Devices, Sprint
6:00 - 8:00 pm
Adjourn, Reception, and Networking
Agenda subject to change.
Looking forward to seeing many of you at the event.
Payments – Federal Reserve’s final rule to implement the Durbin Amendment July 18, 2011
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentPayment aficionados know the impact of the Durbin act on the mobile payments space. Overnight, it forced ISIS – the mobile operator consortium to reconsider their options. Our friends at Davis Wright Tremaine put together a good summary of the ruling and what it might mean.
Here are the mobile related highlights:
On June 29, 2011, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Board) released its final rule (Final Rule) to implement Section 920 of the Electronic Fund Transfer Act (EFTA), as enacted by Section 1075 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act—generally referred to as the “Durbin Amendment.”
Among other things, the Final Rule establishes a cap for interchange fees for electronic debit transactions, clarifies the types of payment products that are exempt from the interchange fee cap, and prohibits certain types of activities such as network exclusivity and circumvention and evasion of the interchange fee cap.
The Board also released an interim final rule and request for comment (Interim Final Rule) on an available one-cent adjustment to interchange transaction fees that allows issuers to recoup a portion of fraud-prevention costs.
This advisory briefly summarizes the Final Rule including: key definitions; interchange fee standards and exceptions; standards regarding network exclusivity and routing; remedies; adjustments for fraud prevention activities; and other matters, including an update on the TCF Bank litigation.
The full text of the Final Rule may be accessed here, and the Interim Final Rule here. The full text of the Dodd-Frank Act may be accessed here.
§235.2(f) defines “debit card” and generally tracks the definition in the EFTA. Thus, §235.2(f)(1) generally defines the term as any card, or other payment code or device, issued or approved for use through a payment card network to debit an account, regardless of whether authorization is signature-based, PIN-based, or other means. The term applies regardless of whether the issuer holds the underlying account. This part generally applies to any card, payment code, or device, even if it is not issued as a physical card form. Similarly, the term “debit card” would include a device with a chip that links the device to funds held in an account, such as a mobile phone or sticker containing a contactless chip that enables the cardholder to debit an account. Comment 2(f)-1 clarifies that cards or other payment codes or devices are not debit cards if used only for purposes of authenticating the cardholder and used in addition to a payment card or device.
I. Issuer. §235.2(k). §235.2(k) incorporates the statute’s definition of “issuer” that defines the term as any person who issues a debit card or the agent of such person with respect to the card. §235.2(k) follows the statutory definition, but removes the phrase “or the agent of such person with respect to the card” as being unnecessary. As agents are held to the same restrictions as their principals, the Board did not believe that removing this clause will have a substantive effect. Under the definition, the identity of the issuer is determined by which entity authorized the cardholder to use the card (as opposed to which entity performs issuer processing). Although the definition does not specifically address mobile payments, the issuer in a mobile payments setting is the entity that provided the device that ultimately accesses the underlying funds.
J. Payment card network. §235.2(m). EFTA §920(c)(11) defines the term “payment card network” as (1) an entity that directly, or through licensed members, processors, or agents, provides the proprietary services, infrastructure, and software that route information and data to conduct debit card or credit card transaction authorization, clearance, and settlement, and (2) that a person uses in order to accept as a form of payment a brand of debit card, credit card, or other device that may be used to carry out debit or credit transactions. §235.2(m) follows this definition, with revisions for clarity. Because the interchange fee restrictions and network exclusivity and merchant routing provisions of the Dodd-Frank Act do not apply to credit card transactions, the Board believed it is appropriate to exclude from the proposed definition the reference to credit cards in the statutory definition to avoid unnecessary confusion. No substantive change was intended. The Board did not specifically include emerging payment systems, such as those using mobile phones or PayPal, in its definition.
More to come on mobile payments in the coming days so stay tuned.
Partner Event – RCR Wireless
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentOur friends at RCR Wireless are putting together a mobile event in Bellevue on Aug 2nd. I have the honor of keynoting the event.
Friends of Chetan Sharma Consulting can avail a $35 discount by using the code partner - http://rcrlocal.com/bellevue/ Hope to see you there. |
Partner Event – GigaOm – Mobilize
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentOur friends and media partner at GigaOm are putting together another great event this year. Be sure to check it out. Friends of Chetan Sharma Consulting get $100 off.
All eyes are on mobile. All leaders are at Mobilize.
Mobilize 2011
September 26 & 27 – San Francisco, CA
All eyes are on mobile. All leaders are at Mobilize. Opportunity is everywhere. With the success of mobile web, devices and applications, we’re standing at a precipice of innovation with nearly endless potential. That’s why Mobilize 2011 has doubled in scope, now providing two days of insight and analysis.
See the full speaker list here: http://event.gigaom.com/mobilize/speakers/.
Register today (save $100) and join what’s sure to be a sold-out crowd on September 26 & 27 in San Francisco.
State of the Global Mobile Industry – Half Yearly Assessment 2011 July 7, 2011
Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, ARPU, BRIC, Carriers, Connected Devices, Devices, Enterprise Mobility, European Wireless Market, IP, IP Strategy, Indian Wireless Market, Infrastructure, Intellectual Property, Japan Wireless Market, Location Based Services, Mergers and Acquisitions, Microsoft Mobile, Middleware, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Cloud Computing, Mobile Commerce, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Event, Mobile Future, Mobile Future Forward, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Payments, Mobile Search, Mobile Traffic, Mobile Usability, Mobile Users, Mobile Wallet, Networks, Partnership, Patent Strategies, Patent Strategy, Patents, Privacy, Smart Phones, Speaking Engagements, Speech Recognition, Student Paper Contest, US Wireless Market, Wi-Fi, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 6 comments
http://www.chetansharma.com/globalmobileupdate1H2011.htm
The big picture
The global mobile industry is the most vibrant and fastest growing industry. We expect the total revenue in the industry to touch approximately $1.3 Trillion in 2011 with mobile data representing 24% of the mix. Global Mobile Data revenues are expected to eclipse $300 Billion for the first time in 2011. It is also the first year in which non-messaging data revenues will make up the majority of the overall global data revenues at 53%.
We expect the total number of subscriptions to exceed 6 billion by the end of 2011. The first 1 billion took over 20 years and this last one is going to take only 15 months. The primary growth drivers are India and China which are cumulatively adding 75M new subs every quarter. Indian and China are also entangled in the race to the billion. At the end of Q2 2011, China was ahead by 50M but India is adding subscriptions at faster rate and is likely to eclipse China before Q2 2012. By then, both nations are expected to exceed 1 Billion in total subscriptions making up 31% of the global subscriptions.
In Q1 2011, US became the first major market to exceed the 50% mark in smartphone sales. The global figure stands at approximately 26%. Some operators expect 90% of their devices sales to be smartphones by the end of the year. In terms of the actual smartphone penetration, we expect the US market to eclipse the 50% mark in 2012.
China leads in the number of subs but US dominates in both total and data revenue. A number of emerging nations are now in top 10 – Brazil, India, Russia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mexico while once dominant – Korea, UK, Italy, Germany have dropped off or slipped in rankings.
The number of mobile operators with more than $1B in data revenues will increase to 47 in 2011. This number was only at 13 in 2005.
Japan continues to be the leader in mobile data with NTT DoCoMo, KDDI, and Softbank Japan ahead of the pack in terms of mobile data revenue and data as a % of total ARPU. In 2011, it became the first major market to have more than 50% of its mobile revenue from data services. Next, Australia and the US have made good inroads in the last two years. In fact, if we look at the overall data revenue, US is much further ahead than any nation due to the size of the market.
While India has the highest subscriber growth rate in the world right now, the revenue generating opportunity remain down right anemic compared to other major markets with average dropping down to $3.50 in overall ARPU. Even with significant subscriber base, there is going to be a general lack of opportunity in the market for the next couple of years relative to other markets.
Mobile Trends for 2011
1.Total Global Subscriptions to hit 6 Billion
–India and China racing to a billion a piece
2.Total Global Mobile Revenues to hit $1.3 Trillion, almost 2% of Global GDP
–Top 10 operators control 43% of the global mobile revenues
3.Total Global Mobile Data Revenues to eclipse $300 Billion
–Non-messaging data now owns 53% of the global mobile data revenues
4.Mobile Devices are now exceeding traditional computers in unit sales + revenue
–Majority of the device sales in the US are now smartphones. Device Replacement is shrinking
5.Mobile Broadband (4G) is being deployed at a faster rate than previous generations
–Over 1 Billion broadband connections by 2011
6.Global Mobile Apps revenue has shifted to off-deck
–The decline is directly proportional to the increase in smartphone penetration by region
7.All major markets are consolidating with the top 3 players at 85% of the market
–Regulators will have to be more prudent and proactive about managing competitiveness and growth
8.Mobile Data Traffic will be 95% of the global mobile traffic by 2015
–Many countries are facing spectrum exhaust in the next 5 years
9.Connected device segment is growing at the fastest pace
–Operators will have to quickly adapt their strategies to stay relevant in this segment
10.Several multi-billion dollar opportunity segments are emerging
–Mobile Advertising, Mobile Commerce, Mobile Wellness, Mobile Games, and Mobile Cloud Computing to name a few
11.Mobile Ecosystem has become very dynamic and unpredictable
–Apple, Google, Amazon, and Facebook have become the most important revenue generating mobile platforms
12. There will be more changes in the next 10 years than in the previous 100
– The value chains will keep disrupting every 12-24 months by the new players and business models
13. Intellectual Property has become a key component of long-term product strategy
– Top 20 control 1/3rd of the overall mobile patent pool
Devices
Apple has had the tablet space to itself. Thus far the response from the competitors has been tepid esp. on the pricing dimension. Apple has had such a mastery over the supply-chain and months ahead of the competition that by the time they figure out details, Apple already locks up the pricing advantage for the cycle. OEMs try to catch-up on the features but can’t do on the margins. OEMs can grow the pie by bringing products at a better price points that helps attract different demographics to the mix. Microsoft can make good inroads into the space with its Win8 tablet release in 2012 but it will be again in a catch-up mode as the iOS ecosystem will be even more robust by then. The cheaper Android tablets will do well in the market. As expected, tablets will pretty much eliminate the need for netbooks and are starting to eat into the desktop/laptop revenue.
Nokia and RIM are under severe market scrutiny as investors and developers leave in droves. Lack of product planning and execution has left their market share in disarray. Nokia’s valuation has been cut into half while the newcomer HTC edged past the industry giant in a remarkable story of the year. Nokia’s release of N9 shows the engineering and creative design depth but a lot is riding on the first generation of Nokia Windows Phones. While the market hasn’t shown much appetite for Windows phone thus far, a good family of devices might be able to slow the loss trajectory and position the combined team for the up-for-grabs 3rd spot in the ecosystem. HP’s acquisition of Palm is finally bringing some new products to the market but the lack of an effective ecosystem means lack of traction in 2011. Given that the computing is shifting to mobile devices, we can expect some of the weaker desktop/laptop players will exit the industry.
Tablets are primarily being used in the WiFi mode because the primary use case is indoors and WiFi gives a better (and cheaper) user experience. Once operators start to roll out user-friendly family data plans across multiple devices, we can expect the cellular activation go higher but will still be dominated by WiFi overall.
The number of connected devices per subscriber and per family will continue to increase over the course of this decade. As the cost structure and margin profile for these devices will be different, we are likely to measure performance of various operators using margin analysis for e.g. while the ARPU for connected devices is 5-10 times lower than the postpaid subscribers, the margins are typically higher due to lower costs of sales, marketing, support, and subsidy. As such the overall impact is dilutive ARPU but higher margins. So, instead of focusing on just the ARPU, the efficiency of operators will be measured in how well they maintain average margin per user (AMPU) and average margin per connection (AMPC).
Managing the data growth
As a result of the data tsunami, there are two types of opportunities that are being created, one that take advantage of the data being generated in a way that enhances the user experience and provides value and the other in technologies that help manage the traffic data that will continue to grow exponentially.
To be able to stay ahead of the demand, significant planning needs to go in to deal with the bits and bytes that are already exploding. New technical and business solutions will be needed to manage the growth and profit from the services. Relying on only one solution won’t be an effective strategy to manage rising data demand. A holistic approach to managing data traffic is needed and our analysis shows that the cost structure can be reduced by more than half if a suite of solutions are deployed vs. a single dimensional approach and thus bringing the hockey stick curves of data cost more in line with the revenues and thus preserving the margins.
The decision making process within the operator organizations will need to be streamlined as well. Operators should also consider creating a senior post which focuses on both the cost side and the solution side so they can devise and institute a sustainable long-term policy and keep the margins healthy.
Competitive landscape
The Rule of Three is evident in all major markets. While the percentage market share might vary, on an average, the top 3 control 93% of the market in an given nation. It doesn’t matter if the market is defined by “controlled regulation” like in China, Korea, and Japan or if it is “open market” driven in markets such as the US, UK, and India. Eventually, only top 3 operators control the majority of the market. There are niches that others occupy but they are largely irrelevant to the overall structure and functioning of the mobile market.
Markets such as US and India experienced similar competitive environment in their hyper-growth phase. For the US, this phase was in the nineties-mid-2000s while India has been experiencing the similar environment in the last 3-4 years. In both cases, at the start there are 5-6 players with no more than 25% market share but higher than 10% of the mix but gradually the market forces enable consolidation. Over a period of 18 years, US is settling into a “top 3” operator market. India’s brutal price wars are going to trigger the consolidation in the next 12-24 months and will eventually settle into a structure similar to other markets.
The competitive equilibrium point in the mobile industry seems to when the market shares of the top 3 are 46%:29%:18% respectively with the remaining 7% being allocated to the niche operators. To achieve some semblance of equilibrium in the market the top operator shouldn’t have more than 50% of the market share and the number three player shouldn’t have less than 20%. This helps create enough balance in the market to derive maximum value for the consumer.
Mobile operators will face some hard choices in developing and protecting the role they want to play in a given region and the ecosystem at-large. The strategy they choose will have a direct impact on the expected EBITDA margins, investment required over the long-haul, how investors view them, and on the competitive landscape of the country. Given, the fast pace of globalization, new rules and trends might emerge over the course of this decade that further define “communications” and “computing” as we know it.
Apps and Services
As expected, mobile commerce and payment discussions are dominating the ecosystem. There is clearly a lot of investment and marketing dollars being spent. However, the traditional payments networks are largely intact. The new opportunities are being built on top of the existing payment platforms with convenience (Square) and offers and advertising (Google Wallet, ISIS, Groupon). Beyond payments, mobile is getting ingrained into every vertical and every facet of our lives – from healthcare to education, from energy to entertainment, from communication to socialization. And we are in the early innings of figuring out the business models, ecosystem leaders, user behavior, regulatory needs, and the overall impact on society.
Ecosystem Dynamics
It is very clear that the ecosystem dynamics can change very quickly, one just can’t take the competitive and friendly forces for granted. In the past, the silos and segments were clearly defined with little overlap. However, over the course of last couple of years, players have been migrating and surfing in segments across the board - from Apple to Visa, from P&G to AT&T, from Facebook to Time Warner, from Google to Best Buy, every company wants to capture the mindshare and piece of the consumer’s pocketbook. The fine line between partners and competitors can get obliterated in a quarter. Apple is competing with Cisco, Comcast is going after AT&T’s business, Visa and Verizon want to be the payment channel of choice, Amazon is gunning for Microsoft’s enterprise business. One product launch, one acquisition, can change the game in an instant. And this is only the beginning.
Mobile is fundamentally reshaping how we as consumers spend from housing and healthcare to entertainment and travel, from food and drinks to communication and transportation. Mobile not only influences purchase behavior but also post purchase opinions. When the share button is literally a second away, consumers are willingly sharing more information than ever before. Mobile is thus helping close the nirvana gap for brands and advertisers who seek to connect advertising to actual transactions. The long-term battle is however for owning the context of the users. Having the best knowledge about the user to help drive the transaction is the simply the most valuable currency of commerce.
Mobile Future Forward
We will be discussing the global mobile ecosystem – the challenges and the opportunities at our annual mobile thought-leadership summit – Mobile Future Forward - brought to you in partnership with our terrific partners – Qualcomm, Millennial Media, Real Networks, AT&T Interactive, Synchronoss Technologies, OpenMarket, Ericsson, and Openwave. Hope to see you in Seattle on Sept 12th.
Some of the distinguished guests include:
Abhi Ingle, VP – Advanced Mobility, AT&T Wireless; Amit Gupta, SVP and CTO, INQMobile; Bob Gessel, VP/Head of Technology and Network Strategy, Ericsson; Braxton Woodham, Head of Engineering, AVOS; Carlos Domingo, CEO, Telefonica; Charlie Herrin, SVP - Products and Technology, Comcast; Dale Nitschke, former President, Target; Danny Bowman, President - Connected Devices, Sprint Nextel; David Messenger, EVP, Head - Online/Mobile, American Express; Erik Moreno, SVP, Fox; Gibu Thomas, SVP - Online/Mobile, Walmart; Glenn Lurie, President, AT&T Wireless; Hank Skorny, Chief Strategy Officer, Real Networks; Janet Schijns, VP, Verizon Wireless; Jason McKenzie, President, HTC-Americas; Jay Emmet, GM, OpenMarket; Jeremiah Zinn, EVP, MTV; Jerry Batt, CIO, PulteGroup; John SanGiovanni, Cofounder, Zumobi; Ken Denman, CEO, Openwave; Ken Wirth, President, Alcatel Lucent Wireless; Kris Rinne, SVP - Networks, AT&T Wireless; Mark Rolston, Chief Creative Officer, Frog Design; Matt Oommen, President, Reliance Communications; Mikael Back, VP of Products and Portfolio Management, Ericsson; Mike Mulica, President, Synchronoss Technologies; Paul Palmieri, CEO, Millennial Media; Prof. Cliff Nass, Human Computer Interaction, Stanford University; Rob Glaser, Partner, Accel; Sanjiv Ahuja, CEO, LightSquared; Stephen Bye, CTO, Sprint; Steve Mollenkopf, EVP and Group President, Qualcomm; Subba Rao, former CEO, Tata DoCoMo; Suja Chandrasekaran, CIO, Timberland; Will Hsu, Chief Product Officer, AT&T Interactive
More information at http://www.mobilefutureforward.com
Your feedback is always welcome.
Thanks and have a great 2H 2011.
Chetan Sharma
We will be keeping a close eye on the trends in the wireless data sector in our blog, twitter feeds, future research reports, and articles. The next US Wireless Data Market update will be released in Aug 2011. The next Global Wireless Market update will be issued in Jan 2012.
Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this paper are our clients.
Mobile Breakfast Series – Mobile Commerce and Payments June 29, 2011
Posted by chetan in : Mobile Breakfast Series, Mobile Payments, Mobile Wallet, Smart Phones, US Wireless Market, Wi-Fi, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a commentWe held our 7th Mobile Breakfast Series Event earlier today. The topic of discussion was “Mobile Commerce and Payments.”
The killer views of the Olympics and the Sound
Mark Young did a great job moderating the panel
The panel expertly delved into the intricacies of the mobile commerce/payments opportunity
The 2011 Mobile Breakfast Series is sponsored by Amdocs. A big thank you for the support.
At the end of every year, we do a forecast survey. In the last survey, Mobile Payments and Commerce were considered the top two categories for growth in 2011. Given the activities thus far – Google Wallet, ISIS, number of startups – Payfone, BilltoMobile, existing players like OpenMarket, financial guys across the board – past few months have been full of significant activity. The mobile commerce developments are right behind the AT&T/T-Mobile proposed merger and Microsoft/Nokia partnership in terms of news coverage.
I remember back in 2001/2, I was writing my 2nd book with my good friend and co-author Nakamura-san who was CTO at NTT DoCoMo and while doing some work for DoCoMo and AT&T, we were exploring ways the mobile device will be used for commerce not only for digital goods but also for physical things. MCommerce has been around for the better part of the last 12 years in some form and fashion, in fact today it is a multi-billion dollar market already. Mobile payments are in different states of maturity and experimentation depending on the region. Do you know the value of US payment distribution - $75 Trillion out of which only 5% is based on cards which accounts for almost $3-4 trillion Total Transaction Value. Paypal is expected to process $4B in mobile payments this year generating over $70M in mobile payments revenue.
OpenMarket processes a significant amount of mcommerce business in the US today. As you will hear from the panelists, they are starting to see good traction from merchants and things are moving from digital to physical. However, things are very complicated – it is a highly regulated segment and changes don’t come every so often. The payment networks are from pre-Internet era and yet they maintain their complete dominance of the ecosystem. So, this sets up a very interesting next few quarters and a perfect time for us at Mobile Breakfast Series to assemble a stellar panel to unwind the realities of the evolving landscape.
Our panelists were:
Mark Young, VP - Strategy, NBC Universal and Digital Networks (moderator)
Rodger Desai, Founder and CEO, Payfone
Jim Greenwell, President & CEO, BilltoMobile
Andrew Lorentz, Partner, Davis Wright Tremaine
Michael Goo, VP - Mobile Strategy, T-Mobile
Joe Megibow, VP - Mobile and E-Commerce Optimization, Expedia
Mark has been involved in mobile for a long time and has been at the center of commerce on mobile since the ringtone days at Moviso. Rodger and Payfone have been in the news lately for some raising money and some key partners like Verizon and American Express. BilltoMobile has been involved in mobile payments first in Korea (under Danal) and lately in the US with all the operators for doing payments. Payments is a heavily regulated industry so players in the ecosystem need to have a firm grasp on regulatory winds to ensure their future revenues. Andrew with his deep background in the space was perfectly suited to bring up to speed with pending and existing rules. ISIS has been in the news throughout the year and Michael Goo has been representing T-Mobile to help define the operator strategy in payments. Expedia is one of the largest ecommerce companies and they are seeing some tremendous growth in mcommerce. Joe is right in the middle of all the craziness and his analytical mindset gave audience some great insights.
As i mentioned, mcommerce is not new but mobile web and apps infrastructure along with new methods of interactivity like the NFC are making things simpler for the consumers that it is moving from novelty to convenience to actual dollars.
The panel was just full of great insights and nuggets. The highlights of the discussion was as follows:
- For Expedia, the majority of the mobile traffic comes from iPhone, roughly 60-70%, Android is around 25%, Conversion rates are much higher on iPhone, The order size on Android is 10% lower than iPhone.
- From a traffic perspective, iPad traffic is double the iPhone traffic though the device penetration is 1/10th. Conversion rates are much higher
- Two years ago, the mobile traffic was around 2% when Expedia didn’t have any mobile site. Now it is almost 6% with 10% on Saturdays, Average transaction ranges in the $200-300 range.
- Given the traffic dynamics on iPad, it is a unique category in of itself – something we have argued before – it is a new category in terms of consumer behavior.
- Most of the traffic for Expedia is from mobile web as SEO and paid search drive traffic to web, difficult to do deep linking, as such mobile web revenue is 5/6 times the app revenue.
- In a multi-device, multi-network world, consumers expect the services to just work across the board with same user experience.
- Fandango drives impulse purchases of movie tickets using “near me” feature of apps 2-4 hours prior to the show vs. 8-12 hours traditionally.
- Charlie Fodie who is on the board of Payfone expects the interchange in payments to go away over time. This will be indeed disruptive, the question is the timing.
- Only 25% of consumers have credit card in their profile with their operator in the US. 30% still pay $9-10B in cash/year to the operators by walking into the store.
- Payfone sees an opportunity by doing auction based underwriting in real-time to minimize the transaction fee.
- The uniqueness of the device can be used as its fingerprint for authentication. Payfone uses the SS7 network for authentication messaging.
- Consumers are unlikely to put $1200 plane ticket on their operator bill. The mind shift is not there, maybe things will shift, but not there in the short-term.
- Operators are exploring using the consumer data as a way to refine advertising, open it up to the ecosystem.
- Durbanization of all forms of exchange fees is near.
- Payfone allows transactions over WiFi on operator bill as well.
- In Korea, 80% of people do payments using mobile so the blueprint to get more people involved with mobile payments is there
- Verizon has a $25/mo limit on carrier billing. A Canadian operator has $500, so on a 6M sub base they have a $4B cash flow thus essentially becoming a bank. The mindset is quite different compared to the US operators
- Merchants are not bought into mobile payments yet. They want to see more adoption before they start investing more aggressively with NFC and other forms of payment.
- Industry is underestimating fragmentation, consumer confusion, regulatory headwinds, consumer adoption once friction is removed, and how soon all ecommerce will become mcommerce.
- Industry is overestimating how much of the space is going to be defined by the western markets
The panel was full of key insights that impact strategy in this space. I was thankful for the speakers to have made the time, especially the ones who traveled great distances to be with us to share their insights.
Next, our focus moves to our annual mobile thought-leadership summit – Mobile Future Forward on Sept 12th in Seattle. It is shaping up really nicely with some terrific speakers. You can take a look at the info here.
The goal of the event is to look a bit into the future 2-5 years out and see what’s on the horizon. We are deep into the planning stages of preparing another successful event. I want to thank our partners of this initiative – Qualcomm, Ericsson, AT&T, Openwave, Millennial Media, Real Networks, and Synchronoss Technologies.
Hope you can join us. It will be worth your while.
Until then, enjoy the summer.
Partner Event: Mobilebeat 7/12-13, SF June 27, 2011
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a comment
Venturebeat’s flagship mobile conf – Mobilebeat - is around the corner and we have got a discount for you. This year’s theme is “Who will win in the 4G Nirvana?”
Friends of Chetan click here and use discount code "VB-Chetan" to get 20% off!
There’s no doubt that 4G is more than just a speed upgrade. It allows consumers to use the mobile web like their home broadband connection, which is spurring untold innovation from all major industry sectors. At MobileBeat 2011, speakers will dissect these multi-billion dollar sectors that are being transformed by the new, resource-rich mobile networks and platforms: Payments, e-commerce, phone & device makers, cloud, web development, mobile gaming, and more.
You’ll also get a peek at 20 of the hottest new mobile startups in the applications and infrastructure/services categories as they present live onstage at the MobileBeat 2011 Startup Competition.
Mobile Breakfast Series – Mobile Commerce and Payments – 6/28 June 23, 2011
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentHope you are enjoying the post-solstice summer/winter.
Just wanted to do a quick update on next week’s Mobile Breakfast Series event on Mobile Commerce and Payments (June 28th ).
We are excited to add Joe Megibow, VP, Mobile and E-Commerce Optimization at Expedia to the mix. As you know Expedia is one of the leading players in e-commerce. They are doing some really good work in the mobile commerce space and are further into implementing the strategy than most.
In his role, Joe has global responsibility for Expedia’s mobile initiatives, including Mobiata, the leading provider of mobile travel apps. Joe also oversees e-commerce optimization activities including leading-edge site conversion optimization techniques, marketing, site, and customer analytics, and site experimentation. Finally, Joe has product management responsibility for core e-commerce flows, including product search and checkout. He joined the Expedia, Inc. family in 2006, heading up Online Marketing and Customer Experience for hotels.com. He is very analytics and data driven and was recognized in March 2011 as the recipient of the Practitioner of the Year, Award for Excellence by the Web Analytics Association (WAA).
Hardly a week goes by without a new announcement/initiative in mobile commerce. There is clearly lot of attention but so are the number of questions about business models, growth trajectory, ecosystem dynamics, key success criterion, timing, and just how is this space going to evolve over time. We are glad to be able to assemble a stellar group of individuals who are deep into mobile commerce on a daily basis.
Rodger Desai, CEO and Cofounder, Payfone – Fresh from their $19M round, the company is starting to break into the market with its unique value prop
Jim Greenwell, President & CEO, BilltoMobile – The parent company Danal has been doing m-commerce in Korea for some time, and now they are seeing success in the US market
Andrew Lorentz, Partner, Davis Wright Tremaine – Commerce and payments has an important regulatory and legal aspect that will be well covered by Andrew
Mark Young, VP – Strategy, NBC Universal (moderator) – Mark is a consumer of these commerce technologies and has good insights into the issues in the ecosystem that needs to be addressed
Michael Goo, VP – Strategic Initiatives, T-Mobile – Michael has been the co-architect of the ISIS business model and deeply involved in all things mobile commerce
Joe Megibow, VP – Mobile and E-Commerce Optimization, Expedia – Joe is the driving force behind Expedia’s mobile commerce efforts
Date: June 28th 2011
Place: Columbia Tower Club, 701 5th Ave, Suite 7600, Seattle, WA 98104
Time: 7:30-11am (panel discussion will be from 8:30 am to 10am)
Registration is open. We will be closing registration this Friday (6/24), so if you are planning to be part of the discussion, kindly register before then.
Many thanks to our partner Amdocs for making this event possible.
Looking forward to seeing you all on Tuesday.
Thanks and best wishes,
ps. The Mobile Future Forward Executive Summit is shaping up nicely as well for Sept 12th and we have an excellent line of executives. Seats are limited so I will encourage you to register early.
What is your Patent Portfolio Quotient? June 16, 2011
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentAbout four years ago, I wrote a paper on how one should think about patents and patent portfolio - “What’s your patent portfolio quotient?” Companies often misunderstand patents and IP and waste an awful lot of resources on securing the wrong things and fighting the wrong battles. If patent strategy is integrated into the product and marketing strategy, companies do well. Given the cut-throat competition in the mobile space, it is even more critical to formulate good strategies. It is a good time to revisit the paper. Having seen the complete lifecycle of a patent from birth to end of life from grant to licensing to litigation, the paper offers some practical advise on building IP.
Abstract below and link for the paper at the bottom.
Abstract
Over the last twenty years, the global economy has slowly transformed into a vibrant knowledge economy. With reduced barriers to entry and pervasive globalization, a small company in a developing world can compete for its share on the world stage. The invention of new ideas and products remains an integral part of the global economy and the commercial food chain. Patents are an invaluable tool to protect and commercialize the inventions. They are essential to creating the barriers to entry for rivals. They are needed for building the credibility and the confidence of investors, customers, partners, and employees. They are required for providing clarity as to the property ownership, for demanding leverage from the industry, and for generating sustainable revenue from licensing and sale.
In the global marketplace, amongst all the other competitive factors, innovation matters the most and patents can help deliver the competitive edge required to remain viable. Inventors who used to see patents solely as part of their defensive strategy (and to alleviate any future litigation risks) to prevent competitors encroach their space are looking to be more aggressive with their inventions to make patents part of their offensive and licensing strategy. To ensure the financial security of the patents, some companies are embedding their IP programs as part of their Knowledge Management and Risk Management initiatives where they capture know-how, harvest IP and ingrain IP into their product development lifecycles.
Patents will continue to grow in their contribution as a key corporate asset. Since much value is associated with patents, the industry need better tools to assess and to understand the valuation and the strength of the patent portfolios. This paper will introduce the methodology of Patent Portfolio Quotient™ (PPQ) to measure performance of your patent program and portfolio that enables a Return on Investment (ROI) driven approach. PPQ measures the quality of the patent portfolio and the patent program with clear policies and procedures as it relates to the lifecycle of patents within an organization from innovation to licensing or sale. We will review the importance of patents as a tool for competitiveness and their value to a corporation. Next, we will address - why a patent program should be integrated with product development lifecycle to extract the maximum value from their intellectual property assets. Finally, the paper will introduce the basics of PPQ and discuss what inventors and companies can do to increase their PPQ.
For rest of the paper, please download the PDF (22 pages, 1MB)
Mobile Future Forward 2011 Executive Summit Announces Speakers and Key Partners
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentMobile Future Forward 2011 Executive Summit Announces Speakers and Key Partners
The future of mobile technology, business models, and consumers will be envisioned by key influencers and thinkers at this leading mobile industry summit
SEATTLE, WA – June 16, 2011 – Mobile Future Forward, the wireless industry’s annual mobile thought-leadership summit, today announced that executives from leading communications companies, including AT&T Wireless, Sprint, Qualcomm, and HTC, will headline the 2011 conference speaker program. The event which takes place in Seattle, WA on September 12th is dedicated to discussing, debating, and deciding the future of mobile.
“Mobile Future Forward attracts a unique blend of visionaries and decision makers who influence billions of dollars of investment and purchasing decisions on a regular basis. Therefore, it is critically important to understand the evolution of the mobile ecosystem through their eyes,” said Chetan Sharma, Founder of Mobile Future Forward.
The distinguished thought-leaders for the 2011 program include:
· Glenn Lurie, President, AT&T Wireless;
· Danny Bowman, President, Sprint
· Steve Mollenkopf, EVP & Group President, Qualcomm
· Jason MacKenzie, President, HTC
· Sanjiv Ahuja, CEO, LightSquared
· Charlie Herrin, SVP, Comcast
· Paul Palmieri, CEO, Millennial Media
· David Messenger, EVP, American Express
· Erik Moreno, SVP, FOX
· Gibu Thomas, SVP, Walmart
· Hank Skorny, CSO, Real Networks
· Ken Denman, CEO, Openwave Systems
· Kris Rinne, SVP, AT&T
· Mike Mulica, President, Synchronoss Technologies
· Will Hsu, CPO, AT&T Interactive
· Suja Chandrasekaran, CIO, Timberland
· Prof. Cliff Nass, HCI, Stanford University
· Jo Harlow, EVP – Smart-Devices, Nokia
· Ken Wirth, President, Alcatel-Lucent Wireless
Mobile Future Forward is designed to help understand the tectonic industry shifts happening in mobile consumer behavior, technology and the telecoms business models over the next 5 years. The conference will help prepare the participants with critical understanding of the opportunities and the turmoil to come.
“We can expect more changes in the next 10 years than the previous 100,” said Chetan Sharma. “It is the companies that recognize and prepare for these disruptions and advancements that will prevail.”
During the conference, many important possible scenarios will be discussed and debated. The scenario triggers will vary but each of these factors can have an impact on how something trending now, will later become fact of life. To maintain their competitiveness and relevance in a trillion dollar mobile economy, players need to be better prepared and agile. Mobile Future Forward provides a platform for discussion, networking, and for shaping the mobile industry growth.
Mobile Future Forward is proudly sponsored by the most influential names in telecoms, wireless technology and consumer mobile. Companies contributing to the 2011 event include Qualcomm, Ericsson, AT&T Interactive, Synchronoss Technologies, Millennial Media, Real Networks, and Openwave.
Industry professionals can also download the Mobile Future Forward book published last year at the conference, which contains 18 exclusive thought leadership essays from high level industry executives at http://www.mobilefutureforward.com/.
About Mobile Future Forward
Mobile Future Forward is the mobile thought-leadership summit that attracts the most influential minds in the mobile industry. Participants include C-Level executives who are very instrumental in shaping the industry, in innovation adoption, and in managing the growth of revenues and profits. The experts and visionaries from around the globe will convene in Seattle on Sept 12th to envision and define the mobile industry over the next 5 years. Mobile Future Forward is produced by Chetan Sharma Consulting, the leading management and global strategic advisory firm to mobile industry leaders. http://www.chetansharma.com.
Mobile Future Forward Student Paper Contest June 15, 2011
Posted by chetan in : 4G, AORTA, Connected Devices, European Wireless Market, Indian Wireless Market, Mobile Future Forward, Student Paper Contest, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a commentTo create the future, we must first be capable of imagining it
- Gary Hamel and C.K. Prahalad, Competing for the Future, 1994
The Event
It was the most satisfying experience of my career. The contest and the Mobile Future Forward summit made me reevaluate my research and career from a fresh perspective.
- Lun Huang, Phd Student - Electrical Engineering, Illinois Institute of Technology, 2010 Mobile Future Forward Student Paper Contest Winner
Being selected as one of the winners of the contest presented me with an absolutely enriching experience. The most exciting part of the experience was the opportunity to interact and network with top industry leaders from all major mobile companies.
- Smruti Parichha, Grad Student - Dept of Computer Science and Engineering, University of California, Riverside 2010 Mobile Future Forward Student Paper Contest Winner
Mobile Future Forward is an executive summit attracting some of the most influential minds who are shaping the mobile industry. The experts and visionaries from around the globe will discuss the mobile industry 2-5 years forward, envision what the user experience and use case scenarios look like, discuss and debate the challenges and opportunities in the journey to that vision.
The Contest
The best student paper contest is open to universities and research institutes around the world. Your task is to help us imagine new technologies, new experiences, new applications and services, new use cases, new business models of the mobile future. The paper can be on a specific technical or business subject within the mobile industry from mobile teleportation to fuel cells to a new enterprise collaboration tool and everything in between. The idea is to let your imagination fly without any restrictions and dream of what’s possible in the next 5-10 years. Papers can be about technical solutions to the most pressing problems, about new revenue models, about your vision of how mobile will be used in the future, etc. Paper length: 1000-1500 words.
The Prize
Authors of the top two outstanding papers will get a paid trip to attend the conference and mingle with the who’s who of the wireless industry. Winners will also be eligible for more prizes. Please send in your entries by July 15th, 2011 tocontest@mobilefutureforward.com including a copy of your current student ID. Use of graphics and illustrations is encouraged. While an indication of interest is not required, it is appreciated. A panel of industry experts and executives will vote on the best papers. They will be ranked on originality, ambitiousness, creativity, depth, and clarity of vision. The goal of the contest is to bring out and reward the best thinking from the leaders of tomorrow.
2010 Student Paper Contest
Lun Huang of Illinois Institute of Technology and Smruti Parichha of University of California, Riverside wrote the top two winning papers respectively and were invited to meet with the senior executives in the mobile industry and attend the Mobile Future Forward Executive Summit. Our thanks to all the students who participated, the judges who helped us pick the winners, and Intel for supporting the contest. See details here.
For more Info, please contact contest@mobilefutureforward.com
Microsoft != Kodak June 13, 2011
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentNY Times in its editorial this weekend compared Microsoft to Kodak implying its days are numbered.
Technology upends companies in different ways. It allows new firms to deliver better products and services in a more efficient way; it also creates new goods and services for consumers to want. Eastman Kodak, the fifth-biggest company in the S.& P. 500 in 1975, was almost destroyed by digital cameras and is no longer in the index. General Motors, fifth biggest in 1985, was hobbled by rivals that could make more fuel efficient cars. Microsoft still rules the PC desktop. But that will matter less and less as users migrate to tablets and more computing takes place in “the cloud.”
There is no doubt that Microsoft has had missteps esp. in the mobile space over the last 4-5 years but calling them a one-trick pony is taking the argument too far. Apple has clearly taken away the mantle of the technology leader in the mobile space but Microsoft is still very strong in the enterprise and its Xbox team is doing really well. While Bing is behind, the mobile Bing team has done some really good work. It has multiple businesses that are doing well giving it enough runway for the foreseeable future but the market won’t wait forever. It’s big bank balance will also help it compete.
Kodak was completely unprepared for the digital world and didn’t have many product lines to offset the losses. Microsoft is different, there are units that are doing cutting edge work and there are others like “online” which are bleeding money. However, as many players in the industry with long memories will tell you – you never count Microsoft out.
iCloud – taking consumer cloud to the next level June 7, 2011
Posted by chetan in : Mobile Cloud Computing, Mobile Future Forward, US Wireless Market, Worldwide Wireless Market , 2 commentsApple announced their iCloud offering today. Idea is pretty simple – Cloud becomes the data center for all devices especially for media content – photos, videos, songs, documents, etc. We wrote about that in our Mobile Cloud Computing paper in much detail.
I wrote about the key success factors for any mobile cloud computing offering -
For any mobile cloud computing service to reach the masses, it has to get the basics right specifically around the user experience and the pricing. As past experiences have shown - if one gets these wrong out of the gate, it is very difficult to get the users interested again.
The key success factors for any mobile cloud computing application or service are:
User experience
The success of a product or the service is defined by the “end to end” user experience and the perceived value users have. A product or service that has a positive impact on user’s emotions, needs, preferences, perceptions, and behaviors has a better chance of reaching mass market in a short-amount of time. In the case of mobile cloud computing, the picture is multi-dimensional, as the service has to adapt to multiple devices and networks and hide the complexity from the user. It should just work.
Pricing
Pricing is a key element that makes the difference between a niche service and a mass-market phenomenon. Consumers should perceive that they are receiving more value for what they are being asked to pay. Many excellent services never caught fire primarily because the value equation was imbalanced. For e.g. the MediaFLO service from Qualcomm was technically perfect but because of the high cost structure, limited operator promotion and distribution, and high pricing for the consumers, it never caught on. There are similar examples throughout the history of the mobile industry. Any new service should first earn its value.
Interoperability
We are living in an increasingly fragmented world. Our content and media consumption is across multiple sources and with different providers. Our preferences and tastes are continuously evolving. Any vertically focused service needs to account for this new reality. This means that interoperability is not a feature but a key functionality without which the service won’t get much traction. The cloud computing ecosystem is going to have multiple providers for example, a consumer is likely to have music files with Apple, books with Amazon, pictures with Google, address book with T-Mobile, friends photos on Facebook, family videos with Yahoo and so on and so forth. Any media cloud computing solution should be open enough to ingest content from any service and provide the capability of multiple cloud services from a single interface depending on consumer preferences. Cloud service providers who try to lock consumers into their databases without offering transparent interoperability will see their short-term advantage whittle away over time.
Discovery and Sharing
For the most part, mobile is still limited by the size of the screen. Consumers on the run have different expectations for media/content consumption. Instead of a series of links, they are looking for answers. Whether it is the song lyrics or associated social data of music and video files or the location and auto-recognition of the individuals in a photograph, rich metadata is key to automatically organize content as well as to instantly finding any piece of content across multiple libraries with gigabytes of data. As such, the value of meta data becomes extremely important.
Network and Device Intelligence
Even though the broadband capability has improved over the last few years, mobile is always going to be under the constraints of congestion, network load, and variable device capabilities. Also, it will be unwise to not take advantage of the device storage, capability and the processing power. A hybrid model provides a perfect balance of user experience, performance, and the range of options. Any cloud service should take advantage of the available resources on the device, in the network, and in the cloud infrastructure to deliver the best experience to the user in real-time. This can only be delivered if the service is aware of the network and the devices at all times. For example, the background syncing of music across various user devices can take place using Wi-Fi or during off-peak hours on a cellular network so as to not burden the network or transcoding the image or the video stream on the fly to adapt to the application, device and network characteristics. Hence, any mobile cloud computing service should be network and device aware at all times.
As always, Apple made the process simple and pricing super attractive. Now, others will have to respond in kind or try to do better with features. Pricing is set – FREE for 5GB (at least for now).
We will be discussing Mobile Cloud Computing and the infrastructure needs and requirements in our upcoming Mobile Future Forward event and will have some terrific speakers to address the topic.
Mobile Breakfast Series: Mobile Commerce and Payments: 6/28: Speaker update June 2, 2011
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentJust wanted to do a quick update on our upcoming Mobile Breakfast Series event on Mobile Commerce and Payments on June 28th.
We are excited to add Michael Goo, Vice President at T-Mobile to the mix. Michael is a co-architect in the creation of the ISIS business model with a continuing oversight role in T-Mobile’s investment in ISIS. His role encompasses both strategic alliances and mobile commerce. Given his involvement in the mobile payments initiatives and strategy, he will be a wonderful addition to our diverse panel.
In our annual predictions survey, the respondents picked mobile payments and commerce as the top two categories. Given the activity in the space in the last few weeks, things are certainly moving in this direction at least for the 1H 2011. A lot is still uncertain and there are too many players in the middle and some have yet to stake their claim but all of this makes for a very interesting 6-12 months in the space and perfectly sets up our panel on the 28th.
Rodger Desai, CEO and Cofounder, Payfone – Fresh from their $19M round, the company is starting to break into the market with its unique value prop
Jim Greenwell, President & CEO, BilltoMobile – The parent company Danal has been doing m-commerce in Korea for some time, and now they are seeing success in the US market
Andrew Lorentz, Partner, Davis Wright Tremaine – Commerce and payments has an important regulatory and legal aspect that will be well covered by Andrew. He has been deeply involved in formulating many mobile payment businesses in the US
Mark Young, VP – Strategy, NBC Universal – Mark is a consumer of these commerce technologies and has good insights into the issues in the ecosystem that needs to be addressed
Michael Goo, VP – Strategic Initiatives, T-Mobile – Michael has been the co-architect of the ISIS business model and deeply involved in all things mobile commerce
Date: June 28th 2011
Place: Columbia Tower Club, 701 5th Ave, Suite 7600, Seattle, WA 98104
Time: 7:30-11 (program will be from 8:30 am to 10am)
Registration is open. Early bird is expiring soon so will encourage you to register early.
Many thanks to our partner Amdocs for making this event possible.
Thanks and best wishes,
ps. The Mobile Future Forward Executive Summit is shaping up nicely as well for Sept 12th and we have an excellent line of executives. Early bird is expiring soon as well.
Google and Payments May 27, 2011
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentHad a chance to talk to Bloomberg about today’s Google Wallet announcement. Article below
Google Unveils Mobile Payment Service to Expand in Advertising, Coupons
By Olga Kharif and Amy Thomson - May 26, 2011 2:33 PM PT
A video screen displays a new payment service introduced by Google Inc. at an event in New York on May 26, 2011. Google Wallet will let consumers pay merchants and download coupons with a tap of their mobile phones. Photographer: Guy Calaf/Bloomberg
Google Inc. (GOOG) unveiled two services to let consumers pay merchants and download coupons with a tap of their mobile phones, as the Internet search giant seeks to expand in the growing market for mobile advertising.
Google is partnering with Mastercard Inc. (MA) and Sprint Nextel Corp. (S) to let customers pay and receive coupons on the go using their handsets, the company said today at an event in New York. The system, based on a technology called near field communication, will be available first on the Nexus S handset, which uses Google’s Android software, and later on other phones.
The new services will help Google compete for retail- marketing dollars that now flow to daily deal sites such as Groupon Inc., in-store display advertisers, business directories and newspapers. They will also help the company capture more information about consumers’ shopping behavior off the Internet, building on its knowledge of consumers’ online-buying habits.
“For Google, it is about advertising and enabling commerce,” said Chetan Sharma, an independent wireless analyst in Issaquah, Washington. “Google wants to become the personal concierge for the consumers.” More than 96 percent of Google’s $29.3 billion in sales last year came from search advertising.
Google said it expects to receive revenue from delivering ads and offers to handsets, and won’t make money off of payments. The payment service, called Google Wallet, and the related Google Offers service will be free to consumers.
Google, based in Mountain View, California, fell $1.54 to $518.13 at 4 p.m. New York time on the Nasdaq Stock Market. The shares have lost 13 percent this year. NXP Semiconductor NV (NXPI), the provider of NFC chips for the Nexus S, added $1.33 to $28.55. Mastercard rose $7.62 to $282.10 on the New York Stock Exchange.
Almost Ready
Google Wallet will be available in San Francisco and New York this summer. Google Offers, integrated with the Google Wallet and offering coupons and discounts, will be available in the same markets, and also in Portland, Oregon.
“It won’t be a long trial,” Fared Adib, a senior vice president at Sprint, said in an interview. “You trial things when they are nearly done and ready to go out.”
Sprint said most of its phones will have NFC technology eventually. Stephanie Tilenius, a Google executive, said 50 percent of phones sold in the U.S. will have NFC by 2014.
Other Google partners include First Data Corp. and Citigroup Inc. (C)
New York, San Francisco
Google is teaming up with retailers including fast-food chain Subway Restaurants, Macy’s Inc., and American Eagle Outfitters Inc. to let customers pay for products and redeem coupons with their phones. The services will work at retailers with terminals that accept Mastercard PayPass transactions.
Many merchants’ existing cash registers will have to be updated to work with the services. That could mean extra business for payment-systems providers like VeriFone Systems Inc. Douglas Bergeron, Verifone’s chief executive officer, said broad adoption of mobile-wallet services like Google’s could add $100 million to $150 million to his company’s annual revenue.
“We are in the wallets business now,” Bergeron said in an interview.
Coupon Service
Users of Google Offers will be able to download coupons by tapping their NFC-equipped phones on display ads, and the service will guide them to the nearest retailer where they can be redeemed.
“The most immediate impact will be felt in retail, but then can spread across every consumer-facing enterprise that accepts on-premise payments — travel, entertainment,” Sharma said.
U.S. mobile-coupon spending may rise to $6.53 billion in 2014 from $370 million in 2010, according to Borrell Associates Inc. The wallet may eventually include users’ drivers’ licenses, concert tickets and hotel room keys, Tilenius said.
The new services also may accelerate consumer adoption of Google’s Android operating system, Sharma said. The software was used in 36 percent of smartphones shipped globally in the first quarter, according to research firm Gartner Inc. That made Android No. 1 ahead of Nokia Oyj’s Symbian and Apple Inc. (AAPL)’s iOS.
Apple also plans to introduce NFC features in its iPhone and iPad tablet, Richard Doherty, director of consulting firm Envisioneering Group., said in January. Nokia and its software partnerMicrosoft Corp. (MSFT) are working on NFC functionality, too.
In the U.S., Google kick-started adoption of NFC features last fall, with a service called Hotpot in Portland, Oregon. Vendors such as Voodoo Doughnut have put special tags on their doors that can be tapped with an enabled phone to give users access to reviews, menus and directions.
ISIS, Apple
Users of Google Wallet will be able to use any credit card to deposit money onto a digital Google prepaid card contained within their phones. Credit-card networks hope mobile wallets like Google’s will help them boost revenue.
“This is part of a broader strategy that Mastercard has been working on to use mobile phones as a platform to displace cash and checks around the world,” said Chris McWilton, president of U.S. markets for Mastercard. “Mastercard believes an open system, at the end of the day, is the way to make mobile payments ubiquitous around the world.”
In NFC-based mobile payments and marketing services, Google will square off against wireless carriers, other handset makers and financial institutions like Visa Inc. (V) that are promoting their own mobile wallets and discount offers.
ISIS, a joint venture of AT&T Inc. (T), Verizon Wireless and T- Mobile USA, plans to introduce a similar service in two cities, including Salt Lake City, in early 2012.
New Paper: Mobile Cloud Computing May 25, 2011
Posted by chetan in : 4G, AORTA, BRIC, Connected Devices, Enterprise Mobility, European Wireless Market, Infrastructure, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Future Forward, Mobile Search, Mobile Traffic, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 1 comment so farMobile Cloud Computing
http://www.chetansharma.com/mobilecloudcomputing.htm
Sponsored by Real Networks
These are exciting times in the wireless industry. The innovation in technology, services, and business models is driving the global industry to new heights. While the global markets were feeling the pain of a brutal recession, the wireless industry for the most part sidestepped the crisis, especially in the North American and Asian markets. Mobile data revenues around the world have been growing at a steady pace. Given the lucrative nature of the market, there are more developers focused on the mobile ecosystem than ever before.
The mobile industry is going through significant transition from being voice-centric to data-centric, from consumers spending 90% of their time talking to being engaged on mobile data services 80% of the time. In Japan, Softbank became the first major operator to have more revenues come from data than voice. Others will follow. In the US, over 35% of the revenues are coming from data services and the data revenues will account for over 50% of the revenues by early 2013.
Mobility is also getting ingrained in the everyday objects, which make up for a fundamental reassessment of how things are done across industries in almost every region of the world. It is not just the phones and the data cards that are being enabled by the broadband connectivity but also the electronic devices such as the tablets, eReaders, automobiles, picture frames, and cameras.
Anything that can be connected will be connected making access omnipresent.
In such a multi-device world, the role of cloud computing becomes central to the content access and sharing. Consumers won’t like to store and upload by device type but would want the same level of functionality available across all their devices necessitating the need for mobile cloud computing. In a mobile environment, one has to contend with the limitations of screen size, the variability of devices, and the network latency. Therefore, the cloud requirements will vary by context.
With the emergence of the smartphones, the mobile operators are being gradually cut out of the value added services space with most of the revenues shifting to rest of the ecosystem. Mobile cloud computing provides an opportunity to leverage their network infrastructure assets and their consumer relationships to open up new revenue streams.
This paper will explore the mobile cloud computing market, its drivers, the opportuniies and the key elements of success in this space. Further, the paper discusses why operators should take a more active role in this space. Mobile cloud computing is here to stay. The winners and losers will be decided based on how players will adapt to empower consumers.
Offer of the Year: Subscribe and get the MFF book for free
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentLast year, we put together an exceptional collection of essays on the future of mobile (see the details below). Join our highly acclaimed mailing list that informs and engages about the mobile industry and its future and get the book pdf for free. An offer even Groupon can’t match 
You can check out our Mobile Future Forward thought-leadership summit that produced this book here.
We had a special project as part of the Mobile Future Forward Initiative. It related to a limited edition book published by Futuretext exclusively for the event. Some of these summit speakers put their thoughts and ideas on paper that resulted in this book. We are very grateful for the authors (and their respective organizations) who carved out time from their busy schedules to pen some really insightful commentary on how they see the mobile industry evolve both holistically and in the various segments of the ecosystem. While the views are quite diverse and bring together perspectives from different angles, but everyone agrees, 2010-2020 will be one heck of a time period for innovation.
The book had the following pieces:
1. The Next 10 Years - 15 Trends That Matter - Chetan Sharma
2. Sustainability in a Mobile World - Stephen David
3. Managing The Mobile Data Explosion - Wim Sweldens
4. Show Me The Money! - Brian Shepherd
5. Mobility Revolutionizing Every Product, Service, and Process - Russ McGuire
6. How Constant Connection Is Changing Our World - Ken Denman
7. 4G: The Next Big Thing - Mike Sievert
8. The Untapped Potential of Mobile Advertising and Marketing - Takayuki Hoshuyama
9. Mobile Operators are at the Center of Mobile Advertising - Krishna Vedati
10. Mobile Challenges - Three Imperatives in the Changing Game - Russ Shaw
11. Interacting With Everyday Things - Amir Mashkoori
12. In The End, It’ll All Go Through “Browse and Buy” - Anil Malhotra
13. The Future of Mobile: 5 Trends That Matter Most - Jay Emmet
14. India’s Mobile Future Forward - Subba Rao
15. Cellphone As The New Computing Platform - Sailesh Chutani
16. What 5 billion Phones Could Mean for Health Literacy - Jon Stross
17. Privacy: From Compliance To Competitive Advantage - Sarla Sharma
18. Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era - Chetan Sharma
