New Whitepaper: The Untapped Mobile Data Opportunity December 16, 2009

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http://www.chetansharma.com/untappedmobiledataopportunity.htm

The Untapped Mobile Data Opportunity

Request for participation: 2010 Mobile Industry Predictions December 15, 2009

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Greetings everyone.

What a year 2009 has been. Despite the recession, the industry continued to grow, innovation prospered and prospects for a terrific 2010 look better than ever. To help us figure out what might happen, we are doing our Annual Mobile Industry Predictions Survey (20 questions) to gather insights from the collective brain trust – our readers, colleagues, and friends from around the globe. I am hoping you will again help us out with your insights (Last year’s results here). All answers are kept confidential.

If you leave your email address, we will enter you in the drawing for winning some mind-stretching/thumb-numbing prizes:

INQ Mini Intro

Mobile Phone: INQMobile’s newest social networking device – the INQ Chat 3G from the company that won the best mobile handset at the Mobile World Congress 2009 in Barcelona
Book: Open Mobile Understanding the Impact of Open Mobile: Implications for Telecoms/Devices, Web, Social Networks, Media and Personal Privacy by Ajit V Jaokar (FutureText) and Anna Gatti (Google)
Book: Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2010

We will share the results during the first week of 2010.

Please click here to start responding. It will take less than 5 minutes of your time. If the link doesn’t work for you, please let us know.

Survey ends Dec 28th.

The questions are:

1. What will be the biggest stories of 2010?

2. Have we recovered from the recession?

3. Who will be the most open player in the mobile ecosystem in 2010?

4. Will Android handset sales exceed iPhone’s in 2010?

5. When will we see tiered pricing plans for smartphones in the US from tier 1 operators?

6. What will happen to the mobile prepaid subscriber base in the US?

7. By how much will the mobile advertising ad-spend increase in 2010?

8. What will be the impact of the FCC’s national broadband plan on the mobile industry in 2010?

9. Who will be the mobile comeback story of 2010?

10. What will be the impact of Google Phone?

11. Which areas will feel the most impact from FCC?

12. Which solution will gain the most traction for managing mobile data broadband consumption?

13. When will the carrier-branded appstores lose steam?

14. What will help mobile cloud computing gain traction in 2010?

15. What will be the most successful non-mobile-phone category in 2010?

16. What will be the breakthrough category in mobile in 2010?

17. By the end of 2010, which will have more subscribers?

18. How will Netbooks do through the operator channel?

19. Which standards will gain traction?

20. What mode of mobile payments will get any traction in North America and Western Europe in 2010?

21. For bonus points, Despite conventional wisdom, what will not happen in 2010?

Please feel free to pass this on to anyone who might be interested or has something to say.

Wishing you a prosperous 2010.

Kind regards,

Chetan Sharma

NYTimes article on mobile data consumption woes December 13, 2009

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Continued the discussion with Prof. Stross at the NYTimes on the mobile broadband data traffic question. Article will appear in tomorrow’s Sunday paper. Another discussion with BusinessWeek here.

Pop Quiz

1. Which solution will gain the most traction for managing mobile data broadband consumption?

1. Tiered pricing

2. Policy management

3. Mobile offload

4. 4G

5. Optimization

6. Backhaul upgrades

7. Others

NYT looked at the work done by Root Wireless and our “State of the Mobile Broadband Nation” paper that was released earlier this week. As the Google Phone (not surprising) news started to emerge earlier today, we are looking for a very interesting Q1 2010. We will have more thoughts and research in the space in the coming weeks. Stay tuned.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

DIGITAL DOMAIN

AT&T Takes the Blame, Even for the iPhone’s Faults

By RANDALL STROSS

I LOVE my iPhone. I just wish it were matched with Verizon Wireless, the carrier with the most envied reputation as fast, ubiquitous, reliable, nigh perfect.

Consumer Reports has just released its annual survey of cellphone service, and its respondents collectively agree with me about the rankings: AT&T occupies the bottom and Verizon, the top.

My sense of Verizon’s superiority is confirmed every time I see a “there’s a map for that” Verizon commercial, graphically showing how far more extensive Verizon’s 3G network coverage is in less populated areas. And it is reinforced when AT&T executives publicly confess — as Ralph de la Vega, the chief executive and president of AT&T mobility and consumer markets, did last week at an industry conference — that the company’s wireless service in New York and San Francisco was “below our standards.”

When I set about looking for independent data, however, to confirm the superior performance of Verizon’s network, I was astonished to discover that I had managed to get things exactly wrong. Despite the well-publicized problems in New York and San Francisco, AT&T seems to have the superior network nationwide.

And the iPhone itself may not be so great after all. Its design is contributing to performance problems.

Roger Entner, senior vice president for telecommunications research at Nielsen, said the iPhone’s “air interface,” the electronics in the phone that connect it to the cell towers, had shortcomings that “affect both voice and data.” He said that in the eyes of the consumer, “the iPhone has the nimbus of infallibility, ergo, it’s AT&T’s fault.” AT&T does not publicly defend itself because it will not criticize Apple under any circumstances, he said. AT&T and Apple both declined to comment on Mr. Entner’s assessments.

Neither AT&T nor Verizon was willing to reveal its internal data on performance. But Global Wireless Solutions, one of the third-party services that run network tests for the major carriers, shared some of its current findings. The service dispatches drivers across the country with phones and laptops equipped with data cards. They have covered more than three million miles of roads this year, while running almost two million wireless data sessions and placing more than three million voice calls, said Paul Carter, the president.

The results place AT&T’s data network not just on top, but well ahead of everyone else. “AT&T’s data throughput is 40 to 50 percent higher than the competition, including Verizon,” Mr. Carter said. AT&T is a client and Verizon is not, he added.

More evidence that AT&T’s data network is head-and-shoulders above Verizon’s comes from Root Wireless, a start-up in Bellevue, Wash., that is developing software for consumers to install on their smartphones to do continuous network tests. This generates empirical data for consumers who “today are buried under opinions and advertising slogans,” said Paul Griff, the chief executive. Root Wireless has no business relationship with any carrier.

This year, Root Wireless ran 4.7 million tests on smartphones for each of the four major carriers, spread across seven metropolitan areas: Chicago, Dallas, Los Angeles/Orange County, New York, Seattle/Tacoma, the San Francisco Bay Area, and Washington. In every market, AT&T had faster average download speeds and had signal strength of 75 percent or better more frequently than did Verizon. (A Verizon spokesman declined to comment about these test results or those of Global Wireless Solutions.)

I asked Ron Dicklin, chief technology officer at Root Wireless, how these results, showing AT&T as the clear leader, could be reconciled with the negative appraisal of Consumer Reports’ respondents. He explained that his company’s tests of AT&T’s data network were done with handsets other than the iPhone, which does not allow non-Apple programs like his to run in the background.

AT&T’s besting of Verizon in these tests is all the more remarkable considering the sudden jump in the volume of mobile data that its network has had to handle with the introduction of the iPhone 3G in 2008: approximately 4,000 percent.

Chetan Sharma, a telecommunications consultant whose clients have included AT&T and Verizon, said that when the network and the handset were improved, customers “just used it all the more.” AT&T didn’t anticipate the rate of growth and didn’t upgrade fast enough in some markets, he said. “Other operators have the luxury of watching and learning from AT&T,” he said, “which has the most number of next-generation smartphones, with full browsers and built-in video players.”

The data seem incontrovertible: AT&T, while meeting 4,000 percent growth in data use, has acquitted itself quite nicely. But the company is saddled with an awful public image as the perennial laggard.

AT&T and Apple could both gain by swapping talent.

Apple, send your marketing wizards to lend your partner a hand. It sorely needs help.

AT&T, send some engineers to redesign the iPhone to make better use of the country’s fastest wireless network.

Randall Stross is an author based in Silicon Valley and a professor of business at San Jose State University. E-mail: stross@nytimes.com.

Business Week article on tiered pricing December 12, 2009

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Tiered pricing will be the hot topic for the next few months

AT&T Possible Price Moves May Backfire

Potential efforts to charge more for heavy data usage may alienate customers and stymie innovation and growth in the wireless Web

By Olga Kharif

AT&T giveth and AT&T taketh away. The wireless service provider that has mastered all-you-can-eat monthly service packages for its mobile-phone customers is having second thoughts. Concerned that some customers are consuming more than their share of data over wireless networks, the company plans to offer some subscribers "incentives" to "reduce or modify their usage" of bandwidth, AT&T Mobility CEO Ralph de la Vega said on Dec. 9. Analysts and consumer advocates say the changes may backfire.

De la Vega, speaking at a conference in New York sponsored by investment bank UBS (UBS), didn’t specify the company’s plans, but said one step will be giving users more information on how much data they’ve consumed. Analysts speculate AT&T may move to a tiered pricing scheme where subscribers are charged more depending on how much bandwidth they use—say, through downloading videos or sending and receiving big documents. Some carriers in other countries, including Canada and Australia, already use tiered pricing.

Yet in a market where customers have grown accustomed to paying a single fee no matter how much data they consume, a switch by AT&T, the largest U.S. mobile-phone operator, may backfire. Analysts and consumer advocates say the move may curb demand for smartphones and wireless data products, stymie development by programmers who specialize in mobile applications, and push subscribers into the arms of rivals, such as Verizon Wireless, that currently charge flat fees. "This notion that customers must now curb their Internet usage or pay up is not only unfair to consumers, it puts up a roadblock to wireless innovation," says Craig Aaron, senior program director at Free Press, a nonprofit group that advocates for unfettered access to communications.

BLOW TO MOBILE DEMAND

Demand for mobile data is expected to keep rising, though possibly at a slower pace, as carriers take steps to discourage heavy bandwidth use, says Chetan Sharma, an independent wireless consultant based in Issaquah, Wash. Limits on data usage or higher prices may also slow adoption of smartphones, one of the fastest-growing areas of the wireless industry, analysts say.

AT&T declined to elaborate on de la Vega’s comments. Verizon Wireless declined to comment.

Companies that specialize in mobile-Web services and products would also suffer from a drop-off in demand growth for wireless Internet access, investors and analysts speculate. These range from startups such as Ustream, which makes a tool that lets Apple (AAPL) iPhone users orchestrate their own live broadcasts of video captured on the device’s camera, to bigger players such as Skype, a provider of Internet-based calling services.

Developers may need to slash prices on games, e-books, and other tools sold in online bazaars such as the Apple App Store, says Richard Murphy, an analyst at IDC. App developers may also need to change how they make money, relying more on advertising rather than one-time fees or subscriptions over time.

A wide range of service providers would be affected. "Mobile is absolutely central [to our growth]," says Tim Westergren, founder of Internet radio service Pandora, which sells applications that put its streaming stations onto the iPhone, Research In Motion’s (RIMM) BlackBerry, and other smartphones. "It accounts for half of our new listeners and a third of our listening hours. Clearly, the more expensive the [mobile] bandwidth, the worse it is for us."

NETWORK CHALLENGE

In the U.S., AT&T is the exclusive carrier of the Apple iPhone. About 3% of AT&T’s iPhone users generate 40% of all the traffic over AT&T Mobility’s network, the company contends. Heavy demand by a small proportion of the user base erodes margins, says Craig Moffett, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein (AB).

AT&T supporters contend that unless it changes the way it charges some users for data, customers across the board will end up with worse service. "The alternative is having the network collapse," says Michael Mace, a principal at Rubicon Consulting. AT&T says it is trying to upgrade its network to make it more capable of handling heavy traffic.

But critics say the company shouldn’t penalize customers for what they say is AT&T’s failure to anticipate surging demand for smartphone data. "AT&T’s wireless profits are sky-high, but it still wants an excuse to charge consumers more and continue to advertise a network experience it can’t deliver," says Aaron at Free Press. In December, Consumer Reports reported that AT&T came in last in consumer satisfaction in more than a dozen large cities. The report noted: "If you’re readying to buy Apple’s phone, prepare for possible disappointment with its service."

Kharif is a senior writer for BusinessWeek.com in Portland, Ore.

NY Times article: AT&T to Urge Customers to Use Less Wireless Data December 10, 2009

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I have long said that the current unlimited pricing on full browser smartphones is not sustainable. Over the last couple of years, I have written and talked extensively about the problem and solutions needed to address this issue (some thoughts were discussed with Business Week, GigaOM, NYTimes and others) and then in more detail in the Yottabyte whitepaper). Looks like industry is coming around to that realization and we might see some pricing structure changes in Q1 2010. Glad to see the industry is moving in the right direction by acknowledging the issues and coming up with relevant technical and business solutions. We still need a more holistic approach but at least this is a start. Some of the things Mr. De La Vega said yesterday at the UBS conference were straight from our whitepaper recommendations. Much more to come on the subject and this topic will stay in the news in 2010.

AT&T to Urge Customers to Use Less Wireless Data

By JENNA WORTHAM

Published: December 9, 2009

AT&T is considering ways to encourage customers to use less wireless data as its network struggles to keep up with demand, a company executive said Wednesday.

“What we are seeing in the U.S. today in terms of smartphone penetration, 3G data, nobody else is seeing in the rest of the planet,” Ralph de la Vega, president and chief executive for mobility and consumer markets at AT&T, told analysts at a conference in New York. “The amount of growth and data that we are seeing in wireless data is unprecedented.”

AT&T is the exclusive United States carrier for the iPhone, whose owners are big users of network capacity as they surf the Web and download videos.

The company has been criticized by owners of the phone for delayed text and voice messages, sluggish download speeds and other network problems.

Mr. de la Vega cited the heaviest data users, saying that 40 percent of AT&T’s data traffic came from just 3 percent of its smartphone customers.

But he emphasized that the company would first focus on educating consumers about their data consumption in the hope that doing so would encourage them to cut back, even though they are paying for unlimited data use.

“We’re going to try to focus on making sure we give incentives to those small percentages to either reduce or modify their usage, so they don’t crowd out the customers on those same cell sites,” he said.

The company might consider a “pricing scheme that addresses the usage,” Mr. de la Vega said. But he said that would be determined by regulatory factors and industry competition, among other issues.

Although the company declined to provide further details, analysts speculated that AT&T could be talking about a tiered pricing structure, not unlike a voice plan.

“You use more minutes, you pay more,” said Chetan Sharma, an independent wireless analyst. Mr. Sharma pointed out that carriers in other countries put data-use limits on iPhone customers to manage demand.

Still, Mr. Sharma said pricing plans based on use were only part of the answer to AT&T’s network congestion.

“They still have to improve things on the back end so they can deal with the issues of multiple users on the network at the same time,” he said.

AT&T has announced a goal of adding 2,000 cell sites to improve its network this year. And this week it released an iPhone application called Mark the Spot that lets users report data problems, dropped calls and spotty coverage.

All wireless carriers are preparing for growth in the use of smartphones and mobile computers that will place high data demands on their networks, said James Brehm, a senior mobile consultant with market research firm Frost & Sullivan.

“AT&T and other service providers want to be smarter about how they bill customers and maximize all streams of revenue, while growing the number of connected devices and data traffic at the same time,” Mr. Brehm said.

Mr. de la Vega acknowledged the company’s difficulties in meeting the demands of its customers, but said things were improving in some areas. “In New York, I think we’ve turned a corner,” he said.

State of the (Mobile) Broadband Nation – A Benchmarking Study December 8, 2009

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http://www.chetansharma.com/stateofthebroadbandnation09.htm

State of the (Mobile) Broadband Nation - a benchmarking study

We live in an information society that is driven by a knowledge economy. A nation’s competitiveness is directly dependent on its information infrastructure, which includes access to and availability of broadband at a low price. Availability of broadband decreases the digital divide and allows consumers access at a much faster rate, changes user behavior, and has a positive impact on the local, regional, and national economies.

Broadband networks reduce the disadvantages of low population densities in rural areas. New applications such as telemedicine, e-government, public safety, e-commerce, small business assistance, and entertainment can be launched and adopted. As a result, new jobs are created and often new or offshoot industries are created as well. The economic benefits of broadband can also be attributed to indirect factors, including increased commerce, reduction in commute times, increased consumption of entertainment, and savings in health care as a result of sophisticated telemedicine. In the United States, several studies have been released that detail the prevailing economic benefits of broadband deployment.[1]^,[2]

Broadband availability becomes ever more important in the global society in which the end-points of any solution can be anywhere. In an interconnected world, for example, healthcare delivery will be much more decentralized and distributed. The local clinic might be responsible for monitoring a patient’s vital signs but the analysis and prognosis might come from a physician thousands of miles away. One might be lying down on a bed in Kuala Lumpur but the surgeon doing the surgery might be in Stockholm on video conference with experts from Cambridge and Chennai.

Given the importance of broadband in fostering the US competitiveness and the economic well-being, the FCC is required by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 to submit a National Broadband Plan to Congress that looks at the broadband policy by Feb 2010. The key initiatives and principles adopted by the FCC will not only impact the US market but will also have wider ecosystem repercussions. In its interim findings, one of the seven gaps that FCC identified is Consumer Information Gap.[3]

To understand the state of the US mobile broadband market, we undertook a benchmarking study with the help of our colleagues at Root Wireless who have developed an innovative approach to collect mobile performance data. Root provided us with copious amounts of data from the urban routes in seven big markets for all four major US carriers. Other benchmarking studies have typically focused only on the data cards[4] and have used limited data samples (though some have covered more cities). This study used over 4.7 million data points for analyzing the mobile broadband performance in the US. Since smartphones are the most important and the fastest growing segment of the US mobile industry, for our analysis, we primarily focused on the smartphones as very little analysis has been done and scant performance metrics have been reported on such devices.

Our goal was to benchmark the state of the US mobile broadband market with respect to the signal quality, realistic mobile broadband speeds, and 3G availability. This paper presents the findings from the study.

Download Paper (1MB)

[1] Examples of such studies: Robert Crandall and Charles Jackson, ‘‘The $500 Billion Opportunity: The Potential Economic Benefit of Widespread Diffusion of Broadband Internet Access 2001,’’ ‘‘Broadband Bringing Home the Bits,’’ National Academy Press, 2002. In addition, there have been several local and regional studies looking at the impact of broadband to their economies such as ‘‘George Ford and Thomas Koutsky, Broadband and Economic Development: A Municipal Case Study from Florida,’’ 2005.

[2] For more discussion on the subject, please see Chapter 2, Fotheringham, Sharma, Wireless Broadband: Conflict and Convergence, IEEE Press/John Wiley & Sons, Nov 2008

[3] http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-294706A1.pdf

[4] http://www.pcworld.com/article/167391/a_day_in_the_life_of_3g.html

Open Mobile December 7, 2009

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Telephony Online does an in-depth study of Open Mobile. I talked to Sarah Reedy on the subject. Some of the articles below. you can catch the entire issue here

Open to alternatives

Dec 1, 2009 12:00 PM, Sarah Reedy

Breaking Down the Walled Garden

Dec 1, 2009 12:00 PM, Sarah Reedy

Roundup of second Mobile Breakfast Series event – Mobile Broadband December 6, 2009

Posted by chetan in : 3G, AORTA, ARPU, CTIA, Carriers, Indian Wireless Market, Infrastructure, Location Based Services, Mergers and Acquisitions, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Search, Mobile TV, Mobile Users, Mobile Wallet, Networks, Speaking Engagements, US Wireless Market, Wi-Fi, WiMax, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 3 comments

The second Mobile Breakfast Series Event was held at the picturesque Harbor Club in downtown Seattle on Dec 4th. The topic was “The Impact and Evolution of Mobile Broadband.” The lineup of speakers was awesome with who’s who of the mobile broadband world opining about the state of the industry, the opportunities, and challenges posed by the growth in mobile broadband:

Neville Ray, Senior Vice President of Engineering, T-Mobile USA

Hank Skorny, Senior Vice President, Media Cloud Computing and Services, Real Networks

Ken Denman, CEO, Openwave

Dow Draper, Vice President, Technology Partnerships, Clearwire

Charlie Martin, Wireless CTO, Huawei Technologies

Stacey Higginbotham, Senior Writer, GigaOM (moderator)

First of all, a big thanks to our generous sponsors: Motricity, Openwave, and Clearwire of supporting the event series. I am happy to report that Motricity has signed up to be the sponsor for the entire 2010 season. So, thanks Jennifer Moranz and Brendan Benzing. Thanks also to Ken Denman and Lupe Downing at Openwave, and Jeff Giard and Scott Richardson at Clearwire for their support. Thanks also to our esteemed panelists who have taken the time out of their busy schedules to be here with us this morning, esp. Ken, Charlie, and Stacey who had to hop on a plane to be at the event. Also, thanks to GigaOM and Moconews for being such terrific media sponsors.

As our operators continue to enhance the infrastructure both in the US as well as abroad, it is creating new opportunities and challenges for the industry. As you know, our friends at the FCC are also very consumed by the task of creating a National Broadband Policy and mobile is a key component of that proposal.

It was one of the best discussions on mobile broadband I have heard all year long. Panelists were really frank and insightful.

The salient points of the 90 minute discussions were:

The disparity between the available bandwidth and the bandwidth demand is becoming apparent and the industry is scrambling to find solutions to stay ahead of the curve.
Even at these high usage rates, mobile data is quite profitable for the operators. Vendors typically don’t a full grasp of the carrier economics and end up making some product choices that are not that directly relevant or useful for the carriers.
Consumers are willing to pay more for better access, higher speeds, and good content and significant opportunities await us in the coming years.
There is no such thing as “free lunch” and someone has to pay for the bandwidth. Sometimes it feels that the pie is not big enough to feed all the hands that are the in the revenue share pot.
Spectrum and capacity is king and whoever has a good spectrum tends to benefit competitively.
Out of necessity, companies come up with innovative solutions e.g. T-Mobile focusing on WiFi in the early days when AT&T didn’t want to touch it and Verizon mocked it. Now WiFi is central to their mobile data strategy.
Traffic from non-phones will exceed that from the typical feature and smartphones.
Business and revenue models that will help sustain the industry are going to come from outside the industry.
With so much at stake, carriers will figure out ways to participate the appstore value chain.
Browsers have shattered the control of the ecosystem and we are just at the tip of the iceberg.
We will soon see the return of the tier-ing price plans. QoS will enter the picture soon. Likely to have platinum vs. gold service concept emerge
Solutions – mobile analytics, video optimization, traffic shaping – it comes down the “art of delivering a packet”
Apps are not a zero-sum game.
There will be a metamorphosis of physics and economics of mobile data, new group of players will emerge.
Carriers have historically not done a good job of picking winning applications but they will figure ways to participate in the new ecosystem.
Compared to the online Internet market, mobile Internet market is quite nascent and we are expected to see significant opportunities emerge in the next couple of years.
While iPhone has been a great device, it is the Google applications that make it so popular.
Presence, social networking, and connectedness will all help in creating a brave new world of mobile data services.
More Carrier branded solutions to come.
If carriers are cut of the revenue stream, they might have less incentive to upgrade their networks.
Technographics, Psychographics, and Demographics data very useful for application developers and we can expect operators to open up consumer information gradually for the ecosystem.
Some see Android getting more closed with each release, OEMs need to open up the device for app developers to take full advantage of capabilities.
T-Mobile has been rapidly expanding their 3G footprint with expected coverage increase to 200M by end of the year.
The levers operators can use to control data usage – pricing, QoS
FCC’s action is having a positive impact on the industry though we need a lot of work (and a lot of spectrum)

Also, Tricia Duryee does a good summary of the discussion at Moconews

Our next event is looking to be another sellout affair with tech titan Rob Glaser, Founder, Chairman, and CEO of Real Networks headlining the event. Be sure to register early to avoid any sellout blues. Date: March 10, 2010.

Until then, a very happy new year to you and yours and have a terrific holiday season that helps you prepare for a successful 2010.

The Impact and Evolution of Mobile Broadband December 3, 2009

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Super excited about the event tomorrow. We have a terrific lineup. Like last time, we are completely sold out. In fact, registrations jumped 21% from the first one.

See you guys at The Harbor Club bright and early.

Many thanks to our sponsors

and the media sponsors

Topic: The Impact and Evolution of Mobile Broadband

Stacey Higginbotham, Senior Writer, GigaOM

Stacey has over ten years of experience reporting on business and technology, most recently as reporter with top technology blog GigaOM. There she covers both the infrastructure that allows companies to deliver services via the web, as well as the services themselves. Prior to GigaOM Stacey wrote about technology and finance for The Deal, a finance publication out of New York, and launched its coverage of angel-backed and seed-stage companies. She joined The Deal from the Austin Business Journal which she wrote for after her return from New York City, where she worked at publications that included The Bond Buyer and BusinessWeek. Stacey graduated with a degree in journalism from the University of Texas at Austin.

Dow Draper, Vice President, Technology Partnerships, Clearwire

Dow Draper recently joined Clearwire as Vice President of Product Development and Innovation where he is responsible for strategy and development of WiMAX-based devices and services, and for product marketing of new customer solutions. Dow spent the past four years at Alltel Corporation where he held both marketing and finance roles: Most recently as Senior Vice President of Voice and Data Solutions and prior to that as Senior Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis where he played a key role in several acquisitions and in Alltel’s sale to Goldman Sachs and TPG. Prior to joining Alltel, Dow spent several years in the Seattle area, first as a consultant with McKinsey and Company working in the aerospace, automotive and wireless telecommunications industries, and second working for Western Wireless (prior to its acquisition by Alltel) as Executive Director of Financial Planning and Analysis. Dow has an MBA from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and an undergraduate degree from the University of Colorado at Boulder.

Charlie Martin, Wireless CTO, Huawei Technologies

Charlie Martin is the Wireless Chief Technology Officer for Huawei Technologies (North America). Martin has more than 20 years of experience in wireless communications and has spent the past nine years in product management, business development and technology development. Previously, Martin served as Nortel’s Director of WiMAX Network and Systems Product Line Management, and, prior to that, as Director of Wireless Technology and Product Strategy for the company. Before joining Nortel, Martin held positions at two service provider companies. At GTE Business Data Products, Martin was a member of a five person product management team responsible for rolling out a nationwide ADSL service in more than 330 central offices in 1998. At Sprint PCS, Martin served as the Manager of RF Design for the Dallas/Fort Worth Engineering and Operations team, which rolled out CDMA service in 1996. Martin earned a Bachelor of Science degree in physics from the University of Maryland.

Neville Ray, Senior Vice President of Engineering, T-Mobile USA

A professional in the telecommunications industry for more than 20 years, Neville Ray has specific experience in the design, deployment and operational management of GSM and WCDMA networks in the United States and worldwide. Mr. Ray is responsible for the management of the national T-Mobile network in the USA, covering in excess of 260M pops, serving 32 million customers and encompassing 43,000+ cell site facilities. HSDPA services were launched in 2008 across all major metro areas of this network. This year T-Mobile rapidly strengthened and grew its 3G network to reach approximately two-thirds of the U.S. population by the end of the year. The faster HSPA 7.2 standard will be enabled across the entire 3G network by year-end. The company also announced it will be the first carrier to launch HSPA+ in the U.S. and conducted a trial in Philadelphia , gearing up for broad deployment by mid-2010 to deliver throughput speeds three to five times faster than today’s 3G networks – with theoretical peak download speeds of 21Mbps (depending on device and other factors).

Prior to assuming his current national role at T-Mobile USA, Mr. Ray held the position of Vice President of Network Engineering and Operations for the Northeast region of T-Mobile USA where he led the network through the 9/11 terrorist attacks, receiving significant recognition from the New York Police Department, New York state agencies and the Federal Communications Commission.

Ken Denman, CEO, Openwave

Ken Denman is chief executive officer for Openwave Systems (NASDAQ: OPWV) where he is focused on executing Openwave’s corporate strategy and growing the company’s global market share with innovative software infrastructure products and services for mobile and broadband operators. Ken’s career spans more than 20 years in the global telecommunications and IT industries. Before Openwave, Ken served as chairman and CEO of iPass, a world leader in platform-based enterprise mobility services where he guided the company in leveraging the explosion in new broadband and wireless access technologies to make them real and globally available to any enterprise or service provider. Under Mr. Denman’s leadership, iPass grew its revenue by 200 percent and went public in 2003.
Before joining iPass, Ken was the founder, president and CEO of AuraServ Communications, a managed service provider of broadband voice and data applications. Earlier, he served as senior vice president at MediaOne’s National Markets Group (now part of Comcast) where his teams exceeded new subscriber growth targets and dramatically reduced customer churn. He also served as chief operating officer of MediaOne’s International Wireless Group, leading international joint ventures including what would become the leading wireless providers in Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. Ken also serves on the board of ShoreTel, Inc., (NASDAQ: SHOR), a leading provider of Pure IP unified communications systems headquartered in Sunnyvale, California. Ken holds an MBA from the University of Washington and a BS in accounting from Central Washington University.

Hank Skorny, Senior Vice President, Media Cloud Computing and Services, Real Networks

At Real Networks, Hank Skorny is leading a new effort to place media into the cloud, offering the ability to protect and access it anywhere. This will allow users to organize, explore and socialize with their media like never before.Hank has nearly 25 years of executive marketing, business development, and engineering experience. Hank had been a successful entrepreneur, serving as CEO of Thumbspeed Inc. which was acquired by OZ Communications Inc. which was subsequently acquired by Nokia. Prior to Thumbspeed, Hank held senior executive positions at Infospace Mobile and AOL Mobile. His career has included general management, senior product management and engineering positions at Adobe Systems, Microsoft and Apple Computer.

Hank also serves as Chairman of Zipwhip, Inc., a leader in internet based text messaging over the web. He serves on the board of Enterprise Ireland and takes an active role in philanthropy organizations that focus on education and stimulating entrepreneurship. Hank studied at Drexel University where he was awarded a scholarship for his early novel research in Xenon Fluorides and by GlaxoSmithKline for his research in computer modeling of reactions involving complex three-dimensional proteins and glycopeptides.

Mobile Analytics at Mobile Marketing Forum – LA November 10, 2009

Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , 1 comment so far

I got invited to participate in two compelling sessions at MMF in LA next week. The topic is something that is close to my heart – Mobile Analytics.

Mobile Analytics Workshop, Sheraton Downtown Los Angeles

Mobile Marketing Forum Workshop
Mobile Analytics Workshop, Sheraton Downtown Los Angeles
Monday, November 16, 2009, 2-5pm

The recent rise in mobile data uptake has not yet translated into increased demand for mobile advertising. Mobile carriers have long owned the richest source of raw data to drive effective targeted advertising. However, the industry lacks a proven method of turning the raw data into valuable insights and standardizing the interface between carrier and advertising systems. A contextually-aware data mediation platform is the essential link between carrier and advertiser – the spark the mobile ad marketplace needs to get rolling.
Sponsored by Openwave Systems, Inc.

Presenters:
Anurag Patnaik: Director of Product Management, Analytics, Openwave Systems, Inc.
Eswar Priyadarshan: CTO, Quattro Wireless
Chetan Sharma: President, Chetan Sharma Consulting
Zaw Thet: CEO, 4Info
Track:
Mobile Analytics
Session:
Data Mediation and the Advertising Ecosystem
Title:
Sharing the Carriers’ 360-degree-view of the Subscriber with the rest of the Mobile Advertising Ecosystem
The recent increase in mobile internet usage is a result of the following key factors: flat-rate and pay-as-you-go billing models, which are easier for the subscriber to understand; larger, touch-sensitive screens pioneered by the likes of the iPhone and other smartphones; and netbooks, data cards, and other internet-ready devices. But this sharp rise in mobile data uptake has not yet translated into increased demand for mobile advertising.

One of the fundamental ingredients in an effective internet advertising solution is the ability to leverage behavioral data for optimal ad selection. Because of its close relationship with the subscriber, mobile carriers own the richest source of data to drive effective targeted advertising in any channel. However, the industry lacks a proven method of turning the raw data into valuable insights, and standardizing the interface between carriers and advertising systems.
According to Anurag Patnaik, Openwave’s director of product management, the mobile analytics platforms embedded in mobile carrier environments play a key role in translating rich behavioral data to actionable insights. More importantly, there has to be seamless mediation between such insights and the adverting marketplace.

Ad targeting systems should be able to leverage subscriber data in an anonymous way and optimize the match between specific ad campaigns and available profiles. The result will be higher eCPMs and a growth in the overall appetite for mobile advertising. A contextually-aware data mediation platform is the essential link between carrier and advertiser – the spark the mobile ad marketplace needs to get rolling.

In this session, Mr. Patnaik along with ecosystem partners will discuss the mobile data mediation opportunity. They will explore challenges the different players within the ecosystem are facing and possible solutions. The panel will address the following questions:

What are the biggest challenges preventing mobile advertising from realizing its potential?
What is the function of a mobile data mediation platform and what is the specific integration with advertising networks and technologies?
What kind of insights are needed to fulfill the current demand at ad networks?
How do operators view the mobile data mediation opportunity?
How can developers and publishers leverage mobile data mediation?

The next day, we will be doing a panel discussion

Panel: Mobile Analytics
The recent rise in mobile data uptake has not yet translated into increased demand for mobile advertising. Mobile carriers have long owned the richest source of raw data to drive effective targeted advertising. However, the industry lacks a proven method of turning the raw data into valuable insights and standardizing the interface between carrier and advertising systems. A contextually-aware data mediation platform is the essential link between carrier and advertiser – the spark the mobile ad marketplace needs to get rolling.
Sponsored by Openwave Systems, Inc.

Moderator: Anand Chandrasekaran: Director of Product Management, Openwave Systems, Inc.
Zaw Thet: CEO, 4Info
Chetan Sharma: President, Chetan Sharma Consulting
Marcus Startzel: SVP of Sales, Millennial Media
Steven Rosenblatt: SVP, Quattro Wireless (invited)

Hope to see my mobile advertising friends there

Colleagues can register via the event website and include (25%MMF09) in the VIP Code box at: www.mobilemarketingforum.com

In case you missed

Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a comment

stories from Oct ..

AdAge - Could the Droid Be the Device That Finally Dethrones the iPhone?

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Xconomy - Highlights from FiReGlobal

TelecomsEurope - Getting it right on mobile broadband

RCRWireless - Defining Mobile Broadband

Mobile Marketer - Mobile CPM measurement standards are essential

US Mobile Data Market Update Q3 2009 November 9, 2009

Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, ARPU, BRIC, CTIA, Carnival of Mobilists, Carriers, Devices, European Wireless Market, IP Strategy, Indian Wireless Market, Japan Wireless Market, Location Based Services, M&A, MVNO, Mergers and Acquisitions, Messaging, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Search, Mobile TV, Mobile Usability, Networks, Partnership, Speaking Engagements, US Wireless Market, Unified Messaging, Usability, Wi-Fi, WiMax, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 5 comments

Download PPT | PDF

Executive Summary

The US wireless data market grew 5% Q/Q and 27% Y/Y to exceed $11.3B in mobile data service revenues and thus exceeded $10B for the third straight quarter. As we mentioned in our Q1 2009 research note, given the strong growth in data revenues and overall service revenues, the worst is over for the US mobile industry. The US market touched 25% penetration of smartphones in Q3 2009, a new milestone.

While the flailing economy hit certain segments of the wireless ecosystem hard esp. the infrastructure and handset segments, consumers haven’t really pulled back on the mobile data overall spending. Additionally, the CAPEX spending has stayed strong in 2009 given the activity around 3G/4G deployments and trials. As expected, there was an increase of prepaid subscribers which dropped the overall revenues for some of the carriers. The US subscription penetration was approximately 91.3% at the end of Q3 2009.

As we mentioned in our last three research notes that this time around, the fate of the US mobile industry is more closely tied to the overall economy compared to the previous recessions. As the consumer sentiment improved over the last two quarters along with better than expected Q1-3 2009 earnings from corporations, the mobile industry is back on track. While the structural flaws in various industry segments remain, the outlook for the Q4 2009 and 2010 remains bright and we are expecting the overall data revenues to now increase by over 30% compared to 2008 with a record-setting Q4.

Q3 2009 reported a 3.5% increase in GDP compared to the 1% decline in Q2 and 6.4% decline in Q1, thus marking the official (technical) end of the recession. The GDP is expected to change by 3.2% for 2009 and the service revenues are expected to account for 1.13% of the US economy by year-end. Note: For a detailed discussion of the US wireless industry in recessions, please see 2008 US Wireless Market Update.

So, what does this mean? Well, the markets can still be volatile, but overall the market seems to be feeling better about the economy than it was in February. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index though retreated from June is at a healthy 47.7.

What to expect in the coming months?

The high unemployment has slowed the growth in the data card segment but the smartphone consumers have more than picked up the slack. Also, as expected, there was a shift from postpaid to prepaid in some user segments. For example, for T-Mobile, prepaid accounts for almost 20% of their customer base compared to 17% from an year ago. The fight for the low-end customer is also having an impact on the traditional prepaid players and the price pressure is reducing their margins. It is quite likely that 50-60% of such consumers don’t go back to postpaid thus permanently lowering the ARPU base for such customers and carriers who have experienced more postpaid to prepaid shift will have to make up for the lost revenues elsewhere.

In fact, the churning in the last few quarters has distanced the top two (AT&T and Verizon) and the next two (Sprint and T-Mobile) by the biggest gap in the history of the industry. By the end of 2009, this gap will rise to 36% compared to 28% at the end of 2008 and 21% in 2002.The "Rest" category has essentially diminished from the market dropping from a dominant 43% market share in 2002 to 12% in 2009.

The trend of the landline replacement by Mobile continued in Q3 2009, now reaching almost 25%. In the third quarter, messaging growth slowed down. The messaging volume was up only 4% and messaging revenues were up 3% QoQ. With its expanding 3G network, T-Mobile like its peers has started to benefit from smartphone penetration reaching to 6% of its subscriber base. Overall, The increased use of smartphones and datacards is putting a pressure on carrier networks and accelerating their strategies to deploy LTE/WiMAX. We estimate that by end of 2009, the US mobile data traffic is likely to exceed 400 petabytes, up 193% from 2008. To truly tackle the problem head-on, operators will need to adopt a multi-pronged strategy to manage their traffic more effectively. We discuss mobile data traffic in much more detail in our paper "Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era." We will have more on this subject in the coming days (You can also read our RCR Wireless columns on the subject - Defining Mobile Broadband and Solutions for the Broadband World).

We will be keeping a very close eye on the micro- and macro-trends and reporting on the market on a regular basis in various private and public settings.

Against this backdrop, the analysis of the Q3 2009 US wireless data market is:

Service Revenues (Slides 11-12, 17, 19)

The US Wireless data service revenues grew 5% Q/Q to $11.3B in Q209. Compared to Q308, the data service revenues grew 27%.
Verizon and AT&T accounted for 80% of the increase in data revenues in Q3 2009.
The US mobile data service revenues crossed $10B for the third straight quarter and stays ahead of Japan and China by a distance.
AT&T experienced the most growth with over 6% increase Q/Q followed by Verizon and Sprint at 5%.
Verizon’s data revenues exceeded $4B/quarter only inches behind the global leader of over 10 years NTT DoCoMo.
AT&T and Verizon now account for 68% of the market data services revenues and 61.5% of the subscriber base.
The average industry percentage contribution of data to overall ARPU is now 28%. US market is likely to touch the 30% mark in 2009 though it might not quite eclipse it.
The top four US carriers are now a permanent fixture in the top 10 global operators by mobile data service revenues occupying #3, #4, #6, and #8 spot respectively. Apart from NTT DoCoMo and China Mobile, Verizon Wireless and AT&T are the only two other operators generating more than $3B in quarterly mobile data service revenues.

ARPU (Slides 13-15)

Overall ARPU decreased by $0.14. Average voice ARPU declined by $0.57 while the average data ARPU grew by $0.43 or 3%.
Verizon led in (blended) data ARPU with $15.59 followed by AT&T and Sprint. In terms of % contribution, Verizon exceeded 30% to become the first US operator to do so. It was followed closely by AT&T and Sprint respectively. T-Mobile also exceeded $10 in data ARPU for the first time.
AT&T experienced something unique - an increase in voice ARPU (for the first time in 10 quarters). The voice ARPU increased $.03 in Q3 2009.

Subscribers (Slides 16-18)

In Q309, the US market added approximately 2.7M new subscriptions down 1% from Q109.
The number of data subscribers has been on the rise with Verizon leading the way. At the end of Q309, 67% of US subscribers were using some form of data services.
The messaging volumes in the US market now average almost 568 messages/subscriber/month or at the frequency of almost a message/hour/sub thus reaching close to the messaging leader Philippines.
In terms of net-adds, thanks to the boost from the iPhone, ATT again led in Q309 with 2M net-adds, edging its friendly rival Verizon which added 1.2M net subscriptions. Sprint lost 565K.
T-Mobile lost customers for the first time in its history. It lost 77K customers in the quarter.
The 3G penetration in the US stays at a healthy 43% in Q309. Verizon led the pack while T-Mobile is slowly expanding its 3G coverage. The growth in 3G and smartphones is helping offset some of the downward pressure on the data revenues and overall ARPU.
The gap between the top two (AT&T and Verizon) and the next two (Sprint and T-Mobile) is at its maximum. By the end of 2009, this gap will rise to 36% compared to 28% at the end of 2008 and 21% in 2002.The "Rest" category has essentially diminished from the market dropping from a dominant 43% market share in 2002 to 12% in 2009.

Applications and Services

Non-messaging services continue to grab 50-65% of the data revenues for the US carriers.
The flat-rate pricing movement that was started by Willcom in Japan which moved to Europe became more prevalent in the US market with industry wide flat-rate pricing plans that included data. All the major carriers seem to be offering flat-fee access plans for most of the new smartphones being introduced in the market. Approximately 20% of the consumers have flat-rate data plans.
There are probably 18-20 sub-segments within mobile data services and consolidation looms. While the valuations are still high for rapid consolidation, we think that due to recession pressure, the M&A scene is starting to heat up.
The usage and data consumption trends are enabling carriers to accelerate their 4G plans and develop long-term business and technical strategies.

Handsets

Nokia sold 100M+ units in Q3 2009. Samsung again had a solid quarter with over 60M devices sold inching its market share to almost 21%. LG Electronics at 11%, Sony Ericsson at 4.9%, and Motorola at 4.7% rounded up the top 5.
The third quarter was again dominated by blockbuster launches of smartphones. Androids have been invading the industry en-masse and 2010 looks to be a terrific year for consumers and competition.
The growth in smartphone usage is also putting pressure on the networks which are not able to handle the load during peak times in certain cities thus forcing carriers to look for alternate strategies to satisfy the demand for broadband - usage billing, UMA, Femtocells, Hotspots, WiMAX, LTE, and others.

Policy and Regulations

· Q3 also marked the start of an intense FCC scrutiny of the wireless industry. In outlining the four key principles of a) looming crisis of spectrum shortage b) removal of red tape c) enforce net-neutrality and d) open Internet, things have already started to change in the US Wireless Industry. Google has played the game of Armadaian tactics with Kasparovian acumen. The impact of the codified principles (and the subsequent court battles) can have a significant impact on not only the US wireless industry but the global ecosystem as well.

Open

The appstores battle is intensifying with OEMs and carriers are announcing their plans and some of them are opening their wares to woo the developer community. In the midst of the appstores hoopla, Apple announced the passing of the 2 Billion download mark with increasing number of developers participating the ecosystem. The new functionality being released with 3.0 is taking the battle up a notch. The clear-cut business model of 30/70+ split is attractive to the long-tail of developers. While there is no dearth of applications, findability remains a challenge. Also, appstores are changing the monetization strategies for content and application developers.
The App vs. Mobile Web debate is getting intense. The evolution is pretty clear - for the applications that don’t require significant UI resources, it will be better to develop in for the browser, for intensive games, the native platform will be ahead of the browser advances. The location API access on the iPhone browser is breakthrough to have developers start thinking about the webapps. But, what does it do to the control points and the revenue models?

· While there has been much consternation around the word "Open," one is hard pressed to find a consistent definition what it might actually mean. One could provide access to one API and declare themselves an open heretic while others could end up opening up their business more than needed and yet be accused of being closed. Clearly, the degree to openness is in the eye of the recipient. There is no black and white, just shades of grey and that’s where the battles will be won and lost. In the end, it is all about "access" to the market and the "freedom" to earn profits. Rest is noise.

· It is worth debating as to what can be mandated to be open, do the rules apply just to the operators and OEMs, or we should extend the courtesy to software platforms, search indices, aggregated user profiles, billing engines, etc.

· It is also becoming obvious that we need to redefine the device categories. Featurephones are no longer dumb terminals, many empower the users with smartphone functionality. Devices like iPhone, Droid, Pre no longer fit the smartphone stereotype, they need a separate category for themselves - appphones, ddhmvcs (data devices that happen to make voice calls), platformdevices, mobilecomputers, geniusdevices, agilechips, astuteconceirge, you get the point.

Misc.

Not surprisingly, Venture capital market experienced a continued decline in 2009, with companies announcing $1.5B in financings vs. $3B for the same time period. (Source: Rutberg)
In a sign of convergence battles to come, T-Mobile’s @Home and various Femto cell initiatives are taking hold. Cable operators are also aggressively seeking triple-play by providing the wireless component of the service.
China crossed the 700M subscription mark in Q3. India crossed the 500M mark for telephone penetration (wireline + wireless) of which 472 are mobile subscriptions. In terms of net-adds, India has outpaced China for the last 16 months. The Indian market added almost 155M vs. 101M in China during the last four quarters. (more discussion on the international market in our global market update next year)

We will be keeping a close eye on the trends in the wireless data sector in our blog, twitter feeds, future research reports, and articles. The next US Wireless Data Market update will be released in Feb 2009. The next Global Wireless Data Market update will be issued in Mar 2010.

Watch out for our end of the year survey and commentary on global wireless markets and trends for 2010.

Your feedback is always welcome.

Should you have any questions about navigating or understanding the economic and competitive icebergs, please feel free to drop us a line.

Thanks.

Chetan Sharma

Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this note are our clients.

RCR Column: Solutions for the Broadband World November 6, 2009

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This column appeared on RCR Wireless earlier this week

In the last column I talked about setting the goals and defining mobile broadband. While we are still a ways away in defining what constitutes broadband, another key debate has emerged in the past few weeks and that is how do we go about the solving the increased capacity problem. FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski has done a masterful job of outlining the principles, of holding public hearings in an open and transparent manner, of creating the urgency of dealing with the broadband issue, and of embarking on a practical national broadband plan, and of getting support of his fellow commissioners and industry leaders, the four key principles being:

1. Most importantly he described the spectrum shortage as a looming crisis and that additional spectrum capacity is needed to handle the demand of data traffic from data cards and smartphones (something we have illustrated in detail in the paper "Managing growth and profits in the Yottabyte era")
2. Removing red tape to allow wireless carriers to build their network faster, for example, the work with cell towers
3. Codify and enforce net-neutrality policies
4. Open Internet

To some in the industry, the broadband capacity problem equates to the lack of spectrum. In fact, the Chairman has spoken out about the "looming spectrum crisis" in great detail on several different occasions. It is apparent that to achieve 50-100 Mbps, new contiguous spectrum is needed. However, it will be a mistake if the dominant solution for the broadband capacity crisis is more spectrum, for the following reasons:

1. There isn’t enough spectrum, especially the right spectrum
2. It takes 7-10 years to procure the spectrum for wireless use
3. By focusing on spectrum only, we will be just postponing the current crisis
4. By giving out spectrum too soon, industry won’t have the opportunity to learn to thrive within its means and let new technology and business innovation show the way to handle the increased data consumption.
Like with all tough problems, to find an effective and a lasting solution, one has to break down the problem into smaller bits and find solutions that address not only those individual pieces but the problem as a whole. We know the following for a fact:
1. Broadband data cards (external or internal) account for over 73% of the data traffic (2009)
2. Smartphones esp. with full browser and media capability account for roughly 24% of the traffic (2009)
3. There are a small percentage (< 3%) of heavy users who regularly have very high data consumption
4. Majority of the data usage takes place in an indoor environment (60-80%)
5. Video and browsing are the two biggest application categories for data consumption (accounting for over 70% share)
6. Consumers launch full applications (or browsers) to get minor updates because that’s the only way to get access to those updates on the mobile devices. Alternate strategies like the one implemented by INQMobile series of devices and Motorola Cliq are good examples of rethinking applications
7. There is no incentive for the user to change behavior on content consumption
8. To cope with the data congestion issue, all three major elements of the network need to be upgraded - RF, core network, and the backhaul. Only RF portion of the network is predominantly dependent on the spectrum allocation (while some backhaul solutions require spectrum, the direction of the industry is towards laying fiber or adopting solutions that don’t require any additional spectrum)
9. Competition breeds innovation, legacy spectrum allocation regimes might have an opposite impact
10. Doing broadcast video over cellular is not economically feasible
11. Number of devices/user is increasing, however, not all connections need high-speed real-time availability
12. True 4G bandwidths (50-100 Mbps) are not possible without additional spectrum
13. Backhaul requirements for LTE will increase in the 200-500 Mbps range within the next 5 years
14. LTE is not going to have a major impact on the data consumption problem in the short-run (2010-2013)
15. LTE smartphones might not be in the market until 2012-13

To address the data consumption issue in light of the above facts, one has to figure out a set of solutions that work in concert with each other. Just focusing on one solution only gets you so far, however, a range of viable solutions that address each of the above problem elements are likely to prepare the industry much better for the long haul. Some of such solutions are discussed below:

1. Offloading traffic without impacting the user experience or requiring user intervention. Leverage existing WLAN footprint and invest in femtocells and WLAN expansion.
2. Congestion management through caching and intelligent buffering
3. Incentivizing users to shift consumption to fill the network troughs
4. Implementing network optimization across all media and application types, especially, video and browsing
5. Adopting broadcast mobile video solution
6. Tightly integrating highly used applications like Facebook and Twitter into the handset
7. Introducing tiered pricing plans so that light users pay for broadband connectivity relative to their consumption. This will also bring in a new set of users into the broadband fold who have been sitting on the sidelines due to pricing
8. Upgrading of the backhaul capacity irrespective of LTE
9. Investing in analytics to better understand user consumption behavior at a micro level to plan appropriate strategies, solutions, and pricing plans
10. Creative bundling of data plans to bring more users into the data ecosystem.

By considering such solutions in parallel, the industry will be better off in the long-run. It is the only way to tackle the problem in the short-term since neither the additional spectrum nor the announced deployments of LTE are going to make any meaningful dent to the data usage costs and margins. Wireless is one of the industries where policy can have a significant impact on the direction of the industry. By focusing too much on the spectrum, we will miss the opportunity to cultivate a better network and business ecosystem and to invent new technologies and revenue models that will have a far stronger impact on the evolution of the mobile industry.

Chetan Sharma is President of Chetan Sharma Consulting and is one of the leading strategists in the mobile industry. He has served as an advisor to several Fortune100 companies in the wireless space and is probably the only industry strategist who has advised each of the top 6 global mobile data operators. His client list includes NTT DoCoMo, China Mobile, AT&T, Sprint Nextel, KDDI, Reliance, KTF, Sony, Juniper, Alcatel-Lucent, Qualcomm, Comcast, HP, and Disney. Chetan is also a leading authority and IP expert in the wireless industry, testifying in cases such as ITC – Qualcomm vs. Broadcom as well as the author of 5 best-selling books on wireless including co-author of Wireless Broadband: Conflict and Convergence (IEEE Press/John Wiley). Chetan has assisted many leaders in the global ecosystem in devising effective broadband strategies. He is interviewed frequently by global media and his research is widely quoted in respected publications such as NY Times, WIRED, Business Week, Fortune, WSJ, Reuters, AdAge, and MIT Technology Review. Chetan serves on the advisory committees of several startups. http://www.chetansharma.com

FiREGlobal CTO Design Challenge PPT October 27, 2009

Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , 1 comment so far

FiReGlobal CTO Challenge II 2009

View more presentations from jheitzeb.

AdAge article – Droid vs. iPhone

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Talked to AdAge about Droid expectations

Could the Droid Be the Device That Finally Dethrones the iPhone?

Experts: Verizon Won’t Take Bite Out of Apple, Despite Glowing Reviews

by Rita Chang
Published: October 26, 2009

SAN FRANCISCO (AdAge.com) — With Apple posting record profits last week, thanks in large part to brisk sales of its iPhone, it may seem downright crazy to mount a smartphone challenge at all, let alone one that takes direct aim at the iPhone. But that’s just what Verizon, Google and Motorola are doing.

Lowell McAdam, president-CEO of Verizon Wireless, holds up the Droid at a joint announcement with Google earlier this month.

With a teaser ad from Verizon zeroing in on the device’s perceived shortcomings, such as its lack of a physical keyboard, the triumvirate is beginning a big push for Droid, the flagship device of the Google-backed Android operating system. So far, industry observers are unmoved by the buzz and give the Droid long odds in its bid to become the next ubiquitous handset.

So far, Verizon and its partners have kept a tight lid on Droid, but the few early reviews have been effusive, with the influential gadget blog Boy Genius Report calling Droid "the most impressive phone we’ve used since the iPhone. It’s positively amazing." TechCrunch’s Michael Arrington, who famously chucked the iPhone because of AT&T’s spotty network service, also gushed: "According to people who’ve handled the device, the Droid is the most sophisticated mobile device to hit the market to date from a hardware standpoint."

The praise notwithstanding, analysts say it’s doubtful that Droid can dethrone the iPhone — even if the handset will live on what is widely perceived as the best wireless network in the country. The Blackberry Storm, and most recently the Palm Pre, both of which have been held up as credible iPhone challengers, came and went without incident to Apple, which just reported its most profitable quarter after selling the most iPhones in that time.

"There is a graveyard littered with iPhone wannabees, so the bar is pretty high for any new phone, no matter how good it might be," said wireless analyst Chetan Sharma.

Beating the network
For Verizon, a lot is at stake. The No. 1 U.S. wireless carrier needs something of a super-marquee phone to counter Apple’s iPhone, which has put millions of consumers on the network of its exclusive carrier, AT&T, many of whom are left to regularly carp about dropped calls. Thanks largely to the iPhone, AT&T last quarter added more contract customers than Verizon for the first time in recent history.

Others say Droid will post solid sales, but don’t expect a blockbuster.

"It’s going to be successful within the Verizon network, but it’s not going to come at the expense of the iPhone," said Matt Thornton, an analyst at Avian Securities. "This device will slow subscriber attrition, but it’s difficult to woo subscribers to another network just for the phone. The iPhone has been the only one that’s able to do that."

And once those customers settle on the Apple handset, it’ll be tough to tempt them to switch: The iPhone was the top-ranked brand on measures of user loyalty, according to a survey by Brand Keys that looked at 63 product categories. Moreover, for the first time in 12 years since the survey’s inception, three cellphone brands made the top 10 list of brands garnering the most loyalty — Samsung came in after the iPhone, and BlackBerry was ranked fourth.

"This says that cellphone brands are able to meet consumer expectations more than ever before," said Brand Keys President Robert Passikoff, who also noted that consumer expectations towards smartphones are also higher than ever. This means it’s all the more critical for Droid to live up to the hype, which is partly being manufactured by Verizon. The carrier recently launched a teaser ad attacking the iPhone for all the things it can’t do, but Droid can, leading some to call the strategy risky.

Not about features
"If Droid is anything less than stellar, then it looks like you’ll have failed at what you’ve set out to do," said Michael Gartenberg, VP-strategy and analysis at tech research firm Interpret. "It’s not a great idea to take a strong competitor head on."

As the Droid teaser ad ticks off a list of features that the phone supports, it may also be missing what consumers are really after, which is the overall user experience, and Apple has cornered the market on that. "You are not going to beat Apple on features, because iPhone buyers aren’t sitting there with a features checklist," said Avi Greengart, analyst at Current Analysis. "It’s not what features the iPhone has, but how they are implemented."

What Droid could do, with Verizon’s backing, however, is be an incremental force to stem the iPhone tide by accelerating Android’s momentum. So far, Android phones have only been available at T-Mobile, the smallest of the top four U.S. carriers, though about half a dozen Android devices are expected to be unveiled stateside by year-end. By 2012, Android is expected to have a 15% worldwide share, just eclipsing the iPhone’s 14%, putting it behind top smartphone operating system Symbian, according to Gartner. With a slew of phone makers hanging their smartphone offerings on Android, analysts also expect more developers to write for the operating system, whose paltry 10,000 apps today are dwarfed by the iPhone’s more than 85,000.

"Verizon’s backing … will bring Android to the forefront and give it more attention," said Tim Bajarin, principal analyst with Creative Strategies. However, don’t expect Apple to take the heated competition lying down. "I fully expect Apple to raise the bar with a new iPhone and new features," Mr. Bajarin said.

Mobile Breakfast Series shaping up nicely

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Our next Mobile Breakfast Series is coming up on Dec 4th 8:30-10am PT in downtown Seattle.

Have gotten great feedback from the first event

"I found the Mobile Breakfast Series to be informative and great for networking. We had 3 very substantial follow-up meetings from connections made at the event."

- Mike McSherry, CEO, Swype

"The Mobile Breakfast Series is a unique Seattle event - all the right people sitting down together to tackle the hardest problems in our industry"

- Dan Shapiro, CEO, Ontela

Hope you can join. Register at http://mobilebreakfastseries.com/ Bring friends and family. Help Spread the Word.

The topic of our next event is “The Impact and Evolution of Mobile Broadband” and the illustrious speakers are:

Om Malik, Founder, GigaOM (Moderator)

Scott Richardson, Strategic Advisor, Clearwire

Most recently Scott served as SVP and Chief Strategy Officer at Clearwire. As senior vice president - chief strategy officer, Scott Richardson was responsible for driving Clearwire’s mobile wireless broadband efforts, WiMAX strategy, technology investment and field trials. During two decades in the wireless and chip industries, Mr. Richardson has worked with key industry leaders to define and shape the WiMAX standards with the goal of delivering next-generation wireless broadband networks around the world. Prior to joining Clearwire in January 2007, Richardson spent 20 years at Intel in a variety of key management roles, most recently leading Intel’s broadband wireless business. Previously he served as vice president of Intel’s Mobility Group and general manager of the company’s Service Provider Business Group, where he was responsible for creating the IEEE 802.16 standard and delivering the company’s silicon products for WiMAX Certified wireless equipment and access devices. Earlier, Richardson served as general manager of Intel’s OEM communication systems business serving the networking and communications market and also led software efforts within Intel’s Enterprise Server Group.

Charlie Martin, Wireless CTO, Huawei Technologies

Ken Denman, CEO, Openwave

Pankaj Kedia, Director, Global Ecosystem Programs, Mobility Products, Intel Corporation

Pankaj Kedia is the director of Global Ecosystem Programs for Mobile Internet Devices (MIDs) and Smartphones at Intel Corporation. He is responsible for working with the industry to enable complete hardware and software solutions for MIDs/Smartphones, ensuring the availability of rich, intuitive applications, content, and services, and taking the complete solution to market. Over the last 2 years, Pankaj has led Intel’s charge in establishing the Mobile Internet Device category in the industry and launching the Intel® Atom™ processor which is specifically designed for this category. Pankaj joined Intel in 1996 and has held a range of executive advisory, marketing, planning, and business development roles across the company. Prior to Intel, he was in the management consulting industry for 5 years leading projects in strategy, management, and information technology. Pankaj holds an MBA from Wharton, an MS from the University of Michigan, and a BS from the Indian Institute of Technology. Pankaj is a frequent industry speaker in the mobile, Internet, and wireless sectors and has been quoted in major publications including Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Fast Company, San Jose Mercury News, Wired and CNET.

Defining mobile broadband

Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a comment

This piece appeared in RCR Wireless earlier this month.

The Vision

Mobile broadband is the network connectivity environment, where networks of different shapes and sizes collaborate to provide users unfettered access to the information they seek, the content they want to engage in, connect people in new and exciting ways, where time and distance are all but collapsed to provide access to anyone and anything, faster than the speed of thought. At least, that’s the vision.

In 1991, the late Mark Weiser of XEROX PARC, considered the father of ubiquitous computing, dreamed of an always on, always connected world in which humans and computers are seamlessly united. In 2002, my friend and coauthor Dr. Yasuhisa Nakamura, then CTO of NTT DoCoMo wrote in our book that his vision of mobile broadband is when wireless infrastructure becomes indistinguishable from air - omnipresent. It is just there without us consciously searching for it. Here we are in 2009, where the FCC is engaged in the noble task of defining broadband and various players are quibbling over a few kbps speed requirements. But as the national debate on broadband reaches a fervent pitch, one has to come back to the task at hand and figure out what defines "mobile broadband."

Defining Broadband

FCC’s current definition of broadband is stated as "The term broadband commonly refers to high-speed Internet access that is always on and faster than the traditional dial-up access." Faster than dial-up doesn’t really conjure up an image of a 21st century ready infrastructure, so, how do we go about defining mobile broadband, what benchmarks are meaningful, and most importantly, what factors would yield sustainable competitive advantage to service providers.

First of all, we shouldn’t mix wireless and wireline for some time. The inherent cost structures, economics, and physics of the two mediums are quite different. By expecting wireless to deliver wireline performance and pricing, we are setting ourselves for disappointment.

Real speeds, coverage, and spectrum

The speed of the network has long been the main benchmark for mobile broadband, esp. the peak rates possible using a given technology. For e.g. in the GSM family of technologies, GPRS roughly equates to 114 Kbps, EDGE to 474 Kbps, UMTS to 2 Mbps (stationary), HSPA to 7.2 Mbps, HSPA+ to 28 Mbps, and LTE to 100 Mbps (of course, there are differences in upload, download, peak, off-peak, min, max, etc.). However, the real-life network speeds experienced by average consumers are typically 40-60% of the peak rates. During peak traffic times, the speed drops even further.
We should be looking at the bandwidth requirements from the eyes of the consumer. Someone living in Bellingham, Wash., only cares about the coverage and the average bandwidth available to them at any given moment. What ultrafast networks are deployed in Washington, D.C., is of little interest to them. So, we need to measure coverage and consistency in performance across the nation. Also, one needs to keep the spectrum scorecard for we can deliver 100 Mbps but the spectrum required under current set of technologies is just inadequate. Hence, the benchmarks for mobile broadband need to be closely correlated to the national spectrum dedicated to mobile.
As a first step, we need to take the discussion away from peak rates to average rates and measure the average throughput at any given time across various markets. Any issues with the backhaul network will also be reflected in these numbers and thus will help us understand the state of the mobile infrastructure at a more granular level. Japan, Korea, and Australia are investing heavily in upgrading their national mobile infrastructure to stay ahead of demand. Progress in these countries will clearly serve as a guiding principle for the U.S. and other economies.

Latency
As we move into the 3.5G and 4G mobile network arena, latency (along with jitter) will start to become an important benchmark as well. Reduction in the time to fetch content enables better user experiences. An all-IP network introduces a flatter network architecture which in turn reduces the latency in the network. Better user experience paves the way for more usage and higher content consumption which in theory yields informed citizens and higher productivity.

Consumption
We should also keep track of the average bandwidth being consumed by users on a monthly basis. By keeping an accurate measurement, the ecosystem can plan better. Some other regulatory agencies like the Hong Kong Telecommunications Authority regularly publish mobile data usage. While the task is much bigger in the U.S., some measure of the pace of growth is necessary for the ecosystem to appreciate the risks and the opportunities.

Pricing
Next, we need to keep track of the average price paid by consumers for mobile broadband and mobile data consumption over time and the choice of providers available to consumers on a national basis. The above also needs to be measured from a demographics point of view by looking at the numbers for a wide variety of user populations. Additionally, these measurements need to evolve over time as our understanding of what’s important to the consumer changes.

Intelligent Platforms

Finally, while the debate is focused on how to deal with the data growth, little attention is being paid to how to use the terabytes of data that is being generated. In other words, there is a lot of focus on data creation but little on intelligence extraction. Most service providers are consumed by network upgrades, move from WCDMA to HSPA+ to LTE and so on and so forth but little investment is going into understanding the consumer and their mobile data behavior - how are they consuming data? what are their preferences and unmet needs? how do you tailor content, value added services, and pricing plans at a subscriber level? how to leverage mobile as a media channel? etc.
Don’t get me wrong, carriers absolutely need to build a robust network that can stay ahead of the consumer demand but they also need to continue to innovate on several key fronts. By focusing too much on network build out and too little on building intelligent platforms that can harness the power of these networks, many service providers are leaving the door open for others to extract more value out of these network upgrades. Sustainable competitive advantage can only be built by understanding the consumer better, mobile affords that opportunity. Players who are focusing on measuring intelligence of their networks are the ones who will be able to withstand emerging business threats better than those who are investing little in building out the platform. And, intelligence is something the FCC can’t regulate but consumers will see the difference.

Chetan Sharma is President of Chetan Sharma Consulting and is one of the leading strategists in the mobile industry. He has served as an advisor to several Fortune100 companies in the wireless space and is probably the only industry strategist who has advised each of the top 6 global mobile data operators. His client list includes NTT DoCoMo, China Mobile, AT&T, Sprint Nextel, KDDI, Reliance, KTF, Sony, Juniper, Alcatel-Lucent, Qualcomm, Comcast, HP, and Disney. Chetan is also a leading authority and IP expert in the wireless industry, testifying in cases such as ITC – Qualcomm vs. Broadcom as well as the author of 5 best-selling books on wireless. He is interviewed frequently by global media and his research is widely quoted in respected publications such as NY Times, WIRED, Business Week, Fortune, WSJ, Reuters, AdAge, and MIT Technology Review. Chetan serves on the advisory committees of several startups. http://www.chetansharma.com

Open Mobile Summit Next Week October 26, 2009

Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a comment

Am looking forward to the Open Mobile Summit next week in San Francisco. Will be moderating two panels, one each day. The overall lineup of speakers is stellar and it should generate some really good discussion. If you plan on going but haven’t done the registration yet, let me know and I can pass on the discount.

Panel: What open means to apps providers

This panel takes the application / service developer perspective and asks:

What are the merits of the different ‘open’ platforms?
How do you deal with fragmentation and how do you choose between platforms?
How to make apps into a real business: Addressing pricing and discovery
Defining open, what would we like to see opened up that is not already available?

Moderator:

Chetan Sharma, President, Chetan Sharma Consulting

Speakers:

James Tagg, Founder and CTO, Truphone
Rani Cohen, CEO, TuneWiki
Bart Decrem, CEO, Tapulous
Jason Loia, COO, Digital Chocolate
Tom Conrad, CTO, Pandora

Panel: Apps in the cloud

Is a write once, run anywhere environment possible for mobile?
Roadmap for browser technology: How – and when - HTML 5 will change the game
What’s the place for native apps in a cloud-centric world?
Opening the floodgates to innovation: Web developers go mobile
Who in the ecosystem benefits with “apps in the cloud”
Does the business model change? And what new technical and business opportunities are created?

Moderator:

Chetan Sharma, President, Chetan Sharma Consulting

Speakers:

Kiyo Oishi, CEO, ACCESS Systems
Frank Meehan, CEO, INQ Mobile
Philipp Hoschka, Deputy Director, w3c
Jon Von Tetzchner, CEO, Opera
Hank Skorny, Exec. Advisor, Real Networks

In case you missed … October 13, 2009

Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a comment

Stories from Sept ..

Fiercewireless - Mobile advertising measurements still lack standardization

GigaOM - US leading the Global Mobile Data Boom

GigaOM - Mobile Advertising Metrics: What matters most?

Moconews - Full speed ahead as US carriers invest billions, is it too much?

AdAge - Mobile Video Gets Ready for the Masses

MIT Technology Review - The New Faces of Android

NewTeeVee - With MediaFLO disappointing, Qualcomm wants to become a Mobile CDN

GigaOM - Don’t Neglect the Network, The Ultraband Panel

NY Times - Customers angered as iPhones overload AT&T

RCR Wireless - The RCR Ecosystem - An Overview

IT Business Edge - The Death of the Early Adopter

GigaOM - New Metrics for Mobile Ad Networks

GigaOM - How the iPhone is driving a wireless bandwidth boom

CTIA Wireless IT & Entertainment Roundup 2009 October 12, 2009

Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, ARPU, BRIC, CTIA, Carriers, Devices, Enterprise Mobility, European Wireless Market, Federal, Indian Wireless Market, Japan Wireless Market, Location Based Services, M&A, MVNO, Microsoft Mobile, Middleware, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Search, Mobile TV, Mobile Usability, Mobile Users, Networks, Smart Phones, Speaking Engagements, US Wireless Market, Unified Messaging, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 3 comments

CTIA San Diego Roundup

San Diego is a casual town so this year’s CTIA fit nicely with an equally casual show, that felt more like a networking party sprinkled with some striking keynotes and engaging sessions. However, the biggest tremors were felt a day before the event started with Verizon getting in bed with Google and AT&T embracing VoIP with open arms. FCC’s curiosity into the wireless world has yielded more action in 3 months than many years combined before. I was drawn more to the policy debate and the implications to the wireless industry in the US and to the rest of the world. There was intense discussion on appstores and their place in the future, mobile advertising and its maturity, enhancing retail experience, accelerated growth in mobile health in recent times, and of course the tremendous growth in the US wireless data market but if you already knew that. This note summarizes the observations and opinions from the event, discussions, and briefings.

A friend of mine at the FCC invited me to the FCC Broadband Field Hearing occurring simultaneously with the CTIA at the University of San Diego. I am glad I went. The first panel was on the App Ecosystem with a diverse panel of industry verticals – rural, public safety, health care, environment, air quality, health care complimented by the discussion of the iPhone and its impact on the mobile industry. Chairman Julius Genachowski is to iPhone what President Obama was to Blackberry. He described his love for the apps with tender affection.

I am finding that the whole process of broadband planning to be quite interesting. The proceedings have been open and participatory, interest and feedback has been intense, and the principles have been clearly stated. This helped with a broader question that my CTO team for the FiREGlobal panel (to be held on Oct 15^th) is addressing. We are tasked with a unique challenge of coming up with technology solutions for better civic discourse and our team consists of experts in the public and private enterprise to give a set of recommendations. We are currently under intense discussions and will unveil our suggestions on thursday. Stay Tuned.

Coming back to the FCC talk, Julius described four key principles:

Most importantly he described the spectrum shortage as a looming crisis and that additional spectrum capacity is needed to handle the demand of data traffic from data cards and smartphones (something we have illustrated in detail in our paper - "Managing growth and profits in the Yottabyte era")
Removing red tape to allow wireless carriers to build their network faster, for example, the work with cell towers
Codify and enforce net-neutrality policies
Operate more openly

While 1) and 2) have been discussed in the industry for some time, it is the mention of 3) and 4) that has changed industry in more ways than one. AT&T’s Ralph de la Vega took the stage after the Chairman and gave a spirited defense of the industry that requires no regulation. Frankly, the mere mention of the word "open" has had quite an impact on the industry in last 3 months. (I will be moderating two panels at the upcoming Open Mobile Summit on "What open means to apps providers" and "Apps in the cloud" in Nov, 2009)

Of course, as always, it is from the details that the devil flexes it muscles. How FCC will end up defining "open," "net neutrality," "network management" and other key items will determine the course of the industry. I wrote a piece that appeared in RCR Wireless “Defining Mobile Broadband” that outlined some of the same principles but from an operator strategy point of view suggested a much broader strategic imperative of building intelligent platform to survive long-term. The recommendations we made in our Yottabyte paper are being adopted and discussed much more openly since it was released in July. Due to significant interest, we will some follow-up research on the topic in the coming days, so stay tuned. I will be giving a ISACA luncheon keynote on the topic on Oct 20^th. Of course, our Mobile Breakfast Series panel on mobile broadband will delve into the details of the broadband ecosystem on Dec 4th. Be sure to register.

Each year our small community in Issaquah, WA celebrates a festival “Salmon Days.” As I was strolling around the hatchery, it helped me prepare for my talk on the Appstore ecosystem. The fish traveling upstream has several parallels to the developers trying to make in the 80,000 db appond. So, I focused my talk on how the ecosystem needs to come together urgently to build the fish ladder to give more developers a chance to make it to the next level to create a vibrant and sustainable ecosystem. While Microsoft’s mobile strategy is disarray right now, they are one of the few companies who understand the caring and feeding of the developer ecosystem (another one is Ebay). If the ecosystem focuses primarily on their profits and margins, the rich ecosystem might be at a risk of collapsing.

I discussed several factors that can help foster a healthier ecosystem starting with fish ladder. If you are interested in the presentation, please drop me a line. There was pretty good discussion from some experienced and successful developers. The emergence of appstore mania has been a double-edged sword. Developers are back in demand but their attention is finite and they are forced to allocate resources accordingly. I was also surprised to find out about the level of piracy and counterfeit goods in the appstore and how little is being done to protect legitimate developers. Some of the ladder factors I discussed were: greater revenue share, connection with investors, iTunes and carrier billing, location and presence, user profile and context, reports and analytics, $0 signup and certification, better search and discovery, social interaction and virality, flexible payment and billing models, better networks and devices, reduced fragmentation, more open APIs and marketing dollars. If you are interested, drop me a line and I will send you the ppt.

I also had a chance to moderate a panel on Mobile Advertising and the current state of affairs. While mobile advertising is the only advertising sector that has shown growth this year, it is not breaking out to stand on its own. Large media companies are primarily looking mobile as a complimentary channel though they are clearly enamored by its potential. Lack of clear, uniform, auditable metrics is another issue though various industry bodies have been working together and some guidelines are expected to be released next quarter.

Overall, the show felt like a sponsored networking party with hardly any new announcements, the show floor was easier on the feet, the attendance was down again. However, the hallway conversations and running into friends and colleagues from the distant past is always priceless. The only newsworthy highlight for me was the emergence of mobile healthcare and mobile retail as separate categories at CTIA. There is clearly much potential and interest in these areas. We will have more on these topics in the coming months.

Some of the news worth items were:

John Donovan, CTO of AT&T opined on the growth in data consumption and how the company is tackling the upsurge in usage
Qualcomm released FLO TV service and devices but at $250 and $9/month, it, like Kindle seems to be stuck in the fidelity belly.
A number of local search services/apps are popping up: Geodelic, Aloqa, Decarta, etc. I built my first location app in 1996. 13 years hence, market seems to be coming around to the concept of LBS.
Number of mobile health companies were displaying their wares: Airstrip, Corventis, TotGuard, Sensiotec, and others. Lot of investment will flow into this sector in the coming days.
Companies like Openwave and Bytemobile talked about solutions for mobile data management.
Mobile Retail is picking up with NFC and now Nokia’s initiative of Global Retail Executive Council
More Androids are slated for release in 2010

It was great catching-up with friends and colleagues. Looking forward to the next one.

« newer posts older posts »

Always On Real-Time Access

New Whitepaper: The Untapped Mobile Data Opportunity December 16, 2009

Request for participation: 2010 Mobile Industry Predictions December 15, 2009

NYTimes article on mobile data consumption woes December 13, 2009

AT&T Takes the Blame, Even for the iPhone’s Faults

Business Week article on tiered pricing December 12, 2009

AT&T Possible Price Moves May Backfire

Potential efforts to charge more for heavy data usage may alienate customers and stymie innovation and growth in the wireless Web

BLOW TO MOBILE DEMAND

NETWORK CHALLENGE

NY Times article: AT&T to Urge Customers to Use Less Wireless Data December 10, 2009

AT&T to Urge Customers to Use Less Wireless Data

State of the (Mobile) Broadband Nation – A Benchmarking Study December 8, 2009

Open Mobile December 7, 2009

Open to alternatives

more on the topic

Breaking Down the Walled Garden

more on the topic

Carriers must be open to compete, analyst says

Roundup of second Mobile Breakfast Series event – Mobile Broadband December 6, 2009

The Impact and Evolution of Mobile Broadband December 3, 2009

Hank Skorny, Senior Vice President, Media Cloud Computing and Services, Real Networks

Mobile Analytics at Mobile Marketing Forum – LA November 10, 2009

Mobile Analytics Workshop, Sheraton Downtown Los Angeles

In case you missed

US Mobile Data Market Update Q3 2009 November 9, 2009

RCR Column: Solutions for the Broadband World November 6, 2009

FiREGlobal CTO Design Challenge PPT October 27, 2009

AdAge article – Droid vs. iPhone

Could the Droid Be the Device That Finally Dethrones the iPhone?

Experts: Verizon Won’t Take Bite Out of Apple, Despite Glowing Reviews

Mobile Breakfast Series shaping up nicely

Defining mobile broadband

Open Mobile Summit Next Week October 26, 2009

Panel: What open means to apps providers

Moderator:

Speakers:

Panel: Apps in the cloud

Moderator:

Speakers:

In case you missed … October 13, 2009

CTIA Wireless IT & Entertainment Roundup 2009 October 12, 2009

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