Mobile Future Forward – Who’s Coming September 2, 2010
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentThe list speaks for itself .. see you there
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4INFO Acision Airbiquity Alcatel-Lucent Alvarion Amdocs AOL At&t Babycenter.com Bango Big Fish Games Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation BioGuidance Blue Nile Booz&Co Bose Corporation Bridgewater Systems Brightpoint BusinessWeek CBHA CellTrak Technologies, Inc. Cequint, Inc. Clearwire CNN Coept Comcast Interactive Media Cypress River Advisors D2Communications De Winter Services Inc DIRECTV Disney Endeavour Partners, MIT Enterprise Ireland Ericsson ESPN Feelingk Feeva Finsphere GigaOM Globys Ground Truth Hyundai Huawei IceBreaker U.S. Inc IDG Illinois Institute of Technology InfoStretch Corporation ING Direct INQ Mobile INRIX Intel Intellectual Ventures iSoftStone Khosla Ventures Kiha Kovio Lucasfilm, Ltd. Madrona Group Microsoft Microvision Millennial Media Miller Nash LLP Mobile Centric Consulting Mobile Content Network Mobile Marketer Mobile Posse MobileComm Professionals, Inc Mobisante Moconews Motorola News Corp Nokia Nordstrom Nuance Communications NVP OnMobile Onskreen Openmarket Openwave Orange P&G Payfone, Inc. PERISCOPE Polaris Wireless Inc. Powerwave Technologies Qualcomm, Inc. Razorfish RCR Real Networks Redpoint Ventures Research In Motion Revel Consulting Rhapsody International Rockfish Interactive Root Metrics Samsung Seattle Times SinglePoint Slalom Consulting Sprint Strong-Bridge LLC Syniverse Technologies Tata DoCoMo Techflash Teleca Telus Tieto T-Mobile Trilogy Partnership Turner Broadcasting Twisted Pair Solutions Übermind University of California, Riverside Verisign Inc WA State Department of Commerce Waggener Edstrom Worldwide Wavefront Welldoc WhatCounts, Inc. WIP Wireless Week Yahoo! Zong ZTE USA |
Mobile Future Forward: Last Call & Final Reminder. Registration Closes 9/3 September 1, 2010
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentAs we get into the final phase of summer, Seattle is getting ready to welcome mobile industry’s finest and the brightest to discuss, debate and chart out the course of the future of mobile. Mobile Future Forward is only a week away and we are very excited and honored to host mobile industry leaders and visionaries who are helping shape the global mobile ecosystem.
We are almost sold out, the seats are very limited, and we will be closing registration on Friday (9/3), so if you want to be part of the exclusive gathering - registration and more information is available at http://www.mobilefutureforward.com. No walk-ins are permitted.
In proud partnership with: Amdocs, Bango, Clearwire, Intel, Millennial Media, OpenMarket, Openwave, Real Networks, Wavefront, and ZTE
Who’s Coming: A mobile executive summit unlike any other - Speakers: VP and higher – 98%+, Audience: VP and higher: 70%+
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Sept 7th 2010 |
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6:00 - 8:00 pm |
Speakers Dinner |
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Sept 8th 2010 |
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6:30 am |
Registration Opens. Breakfast and Networking |
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8:00 am |
Introduction and Welcome - Chetan Sharma, President, Chetan Sharma Consulting |
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8:30 am |
Keynote - Stephen David, former CIO, Procter & Gamble |
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9:00 am |
Keynote - Fred Devereaux, President, AT&T |
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9:30 am |
Keynote - Anand Chandrasekher, SVP and GM - Ultra Mobility Group, Intel |
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10 - 10:30 am |
Break |
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10:30 am |
Keynote - Takayuki Hoshuyama, CEO, D2Communications |
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11:00 am |
Disruption Is In The Air Mike Sievert, Chief Commercial Officer, Clearwire Dr. Genevieve Bell, Fellow, Intel Lixin Cheng, CEO, ZTE USA Subba Rao, CEO, Tata DoCoMo |
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12 - 1:30 pm |
Lunch |
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1:30 pm |
Network and Mobile Data Evolution 2010-2015 Wim Sweldens, President - Wireless Division, Alcatel-Lucent Neville Ray, Chief Network Officer, T-Mobile Bob Azzi, Senior Vice President, Sprint Matt Bross, CTO and Vice Chairman, Huawei Sean Cai, Vice President - Advanced Wireless Technology, ZTE Ken Denman, CEO, Openwave (moderator) Louis Gump, Vice President - Mobile, CNN Jack Kennedy, Senior Vice President - Digital, News Corp Omar Javaid, Vice President, Converged Media, Motorola (moderator) Paul Palmieri, CEO, Millennial Media John Zehr, Senior Vice President, ESPN Digital Rob Glaser, Chairman, Real Networks and Partner, Accel |
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2:30 pm |
mHealth - The Impact on Society and Global Health Dr. Sailesh Chutani, CEO, Mobisante (moderator) Jon Stross, General Manager and VP, Babycenter.com Dr. Boris Nikolic, Sr. Program Director, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Dr. Greg Brandenberg, CEO, Columbia Basin Health Association Dr. Suzanne Clough, Chief Medical Officer, Welldoc |
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3:30 - 4:00 pm |
Break |
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4:00 pm |
Evolution of Communication and Social Interaction Mario Queiroz, Vice President - Product Management, Google David Weiden, General Partner, Khosla Ventures Joe Sims, Lead Partner, Booz&Co (moderator) Erick Tseng, Head of Mobile, Facebook Pankaj Kedia, Head of Mobile Ecosystems, Intel Mobile Cloud Computing - At the Tipping Point? Hank Skorny, Senior Vice President - Media Cloud Computing, Real Networks Brian Shepherd, President - Mobile Services and Marketing, Amdocs Marianne Marck, Senior Vice President, BlueNile Mike Wolf, Vice President - Research, GigaOM (moderator) Erez Yarkoni, Chief Information Officer, T-Mobile |
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5:00 pm |
Internet of Things - Emerging Ecosystems Amir Mashkoori, CEO, Kovio Danny Bowman, President - Integrated Solutions Group, Sprint Mark Selby, Vice President - Industry Collaboration, Nokia Chetan Sharma, President, Chetan Sharma Consulting (moderator) |
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6 - 8:00 pm |
Adjourn, Reception, and Networking |
Agenda subject to change
Mobile Future Forward – Student Paper Contest Results Announced August 15, 2010
Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, ARPU, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Event, Mobile Future, Mobile Future Forward, Smart Phones, Speaking Engagements, Student Paper Contest, US Wireless Market, VoIP, Wi-Fi, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment 
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On behalf of the Mobile Future Forward team, Intel – the contest sponsors, and the esteem panel of Judges from the mobile industry, I would like to thank all the students who participated in our inaugural “Student Paper Contest.” Despite the summer recess and only one month of preparation time, we got an overwhelmingly positive response from students in 9 different countries across Asia, Europe, and North America.
We very much appreciate the time and energy the students put in producing some exceptional papers that are indicative of their potential in the mobile space in the coming days.
We went through a rigorous selection process and our elite jury panel helped us pick and rank the top 6 papers. The contest judges were:
1. Pankaj Kedia, Head of Mobile Ecosystems, Intel
2. Subba Rao, CEO, Tata DoCoMo
3. Len Barlik, VP, Sprint Nextel
4. Jeff Giard, Director, Clearwire
5. Paul Palmieri, CEO, Millennial Media
6. Matt Oommen, CTO, Sprint Nextel
7. Paul Struthers, Head of Regional Marketing, Amdocs
The final ranking of the papers was as follows:
1. UWB Based on Multi-Band MC-CDMA and Magnetic Near-Field – Lun Huang, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Illinois Institute of Technology, US
2. Ubiquitous Peer Proximity Awareness in Mobile Environments – Smruti Parichha, Dept of Computer Science and Engineering, University of California, Riverside, US
3. Ubiquitous Augmented Reality – Anna Maria Ksiezopolska, Institute of System Level Integration – iSLI, University of Edinburgh, UK
4. Mobile Communications & Accessibility for Blind Users – M Kazi M. Yakoob, Chan Naseeb, and Hafiz Qasim, Politecnico di Milano, Italy
5. Mobile Future – Free CPU Everywhere – Ren C. Luo and CJ Chi, Intelligent Robot and Automation Lab, EE Dept, National Taiwan University, Taiwan
6. Serving the Poor Farmers by Mobile Agricultural Information: Quality of Service Assessment to Empower Rural Bangladesh – Mohammed Upal, Graduate School of Management, International University of Japan, Japan
Lun Huang and Smruti Parichha are being invited to meet with the senior executives in the mobile industry and attend the Mobile Future Forward conference. Rest of the authors in the top 6 will receive a book on mobile computing.
Abstracts of the winning papers are:
UWB Based on Multi-Band MC-CDMA and Magnetic Near-Field – Lun Huang, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Illinois Institute of Technology, US
Since the FCC opened up the spectrum for Ultra Wide Band (UWB) operation in the 3.1 to 10.6 GHz range, several standards have been proposed to realize moderate and high rate short-range communication systems. Under the WiMedia and Wireless Personal Area Networks (WPANs) umbrella [1][2], industry incorporated UWB as the technology to achieve high data rates up to 480Mbps for certain applications, such as wireless USB v2.0 and Laptop to HDTV audio/video extenders. In this paper, a novel UWB based on Affine Orthogonal Transform MC-CDMA and Magnetic near-field is introduced. The proposed new scheme is capable of improving the spectrum and power efficiency while provide good wireless link quality.
Ubiquitous Peer Proximity Awareness in Mobile Environments – Smruti Parichha, Dept of Computer Science and Engineering, University of California, Riverside, US
This paper proposes the idea of enabling all WiFi capable consumer devices with the knowledge of the locations of peer devices in their network neighborhood. We will use the term “peer-proximity awareness” to describe the ability to discover locations of peers and update this knowledge with changes in the network neighborhood. GPS functionality enables a device to locate its own coordinates in outdoor environments. Peer-proximity awareness is meant to provide knowledge of the location of peer devices with respect to itself in indoor environments, where mobile wireless devices are extensively used, but GPS capability is of little help. The accuracy in peer-proximity awareness is intended to be a few meters, or even sub-meter level, depending on the application. We will focus on extremely interesting applications that can leverage peer proximity awareness and show that it has great potential in the future of the mobile market.
Congrats to the winners and everyone who contributed to the process.
Thanks to all the students and their academic institutions for participating. I am sure our paths will cross again.
Best wishes for their successful academic and professional careers.
US Mobile Data Market Update Q2 2010 August 10, 2010
Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, ARPU, BRIC, CTIA, Enterprise Mobility, European Wireless Market, IP Strategy, Indian Wireless Market, Location Based Services, M&A, Mergers and Acquisitions, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Event, Mobile Future, Mobile Future Forward, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Search, Mobile Wallet, Music Player, Networks, Speaking Engagements, Speech Recognition, US Wireless Market, Unified Messaging, Usability, VoIP, Wi-Fi, WiMax, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 1 comment so farUS Mobile Data Market Update Q2 2010
http://chetansharma.com/usmarketupdateq22010.htm
Executive Summary
The US wireless data market grew 6% Q/Q and 22% Y/Y to exceed $13.2B in mobile data service revenues in Q2 2010 - on track so far to meet our initial estimate of $54B for the year.
Having narrowly edged NTT DoCoMo last quarter for the first time, Verizon Wireless maintained its number one ranking for the 1H 2010 in terms of the operator with the most mobile data revenues (though the difference was thinner than the amoeba membrane). The total wireless connections for Verizon were almost 100M with 92.1M being the traditional subscriber base. Rest of the 3 top US operators also maintained leading positions amongst the top 10 global mobile data operators.
Sprint had the first positive netadd quarter in 3 years and has been slowly and steadily turning the ship around. T-Mobile did better on the postpaid netadds but overall additions declined again. The larger question for the market is if 4 large players can stay competitive. Generally, the answer is no. But these are different times and there are a number of permutations and combinations that are possible.
The US subscription penetration crossed 95% at the end of Q2 2010. If we take out the demographics of 5 yrs and younger, the mobile penetration is now past 100%. While the traditional net-adds have been slowing, the “connected device” segment is picking up so much that both AT&T and Verizon added more connected devices than postpaid subs in Q2 2010. Given the slow postpaid growth, operators are fiercely competing in prepaid, enterprise, connected devices, and M2M segments.
Data traffic continued to increase across all networks. By 1H 2010, the average US consumer was consuming approximately 230 MB/mo up 50% in 6 months. US has become ground zero for mobile broadband consumption and data traffic management evolution. While it lags Japan and Korea in 3G penetration by a distance, due to higher penetration of smartphones and datacards, the consumption is much higher than its Asian counterparts. Given that it is also becoming the largest deployment base for HSPA+ and LTE, most of the cutting edge research in areas of data management and experimentation with policy, regulations, strategy, and business models is taking place in the networks of the US operators and keenly watched by players across the global ecosystem.
As we had forecasted, the tiered pricing structure for mobile broadband touched the US shores with AT&T becoming the first major operator to change its pricing plan based on consumer consumption. We will see the pricing evolve over the next 2-4 quarters as the US mobile ecosystem adjusts to the new realities and strategies for mobile data consumption.
In the connected device category, iPad like its flashy cousin dominated the headlines, the sales numbers, and the industry profits. The device sent every slate maker back to the drawing board, many projects were cancelled and strategies are still being formulated to capture a new burgeoning space and Apple again has a massive lead of mindshare and pocketbook.
Kids of the now generation are growing with connected electronics that is fundamentally altering the behaviors and expectations of interaction, communication, consumption, and monetization.
All this has setup an absolutely fascinating period in the communication/computing industry. Convergence is everywhere and is leading to fundamental reset of the value chains and ecosystems. We are going to be discussing the ins and outs of how the industry is going to evolve in the next decade in our Sept 8th event – Mobile Future Forward which is bringing exceptional industry thought-leaders, inventors, and doers to brainstorm, discuss, and debate what’s next. Hope you can join the discussion.
What to expect in the coming months?
31% of the US subscription base is now smartphones.
The pace of product introduction is accelerating with each quarter. Devices of all shapes and sizes are coming into the market literally every week. Players are having to re-evaluate their businesses and long-term strategies. Several new impressive devices got introduced during the course of 1H of 2010 including the iPad and EVO.
There are several players whose future is at stake (to put it mildly). The competition has grown fierce and companies are finding it hard to take ideas from R&D to products in market in a short amount of time.
Microsoft announced its comeback with the W7 commercial launch imminent. The change in UI was refreshing and the expectations are quite high. W7 v2 is likely around the corner to update on the flaws of v1. HP acquired Palm in an attempt to become relevant again in the mobile device space. It has been an action packed 1H 2010 and we can expect more of the same for the remainder of the year.
2010 has also been active on the regulatory front as the national broadband plan was unveiled in March and the subsequent debate over the course of nations broadband future kept the spectrum, net-neutrality, and exclusivity issues at the forefront.
To start planning for 4G, 5G, and beyond, US should think about rolling a 50 year broadband plan. While more spectrum is always helpful, will we have all the spectrum we need in 2050? or do we need to invent new technologies and business models that use spectrum more wisely? This topic will keep the industry occupied for some time to come. (We will be going in-depth into this subject at our Sept event with some very senior and experienced executives)
2010 is also the year of network rollouts. T-Mobile has been rolling out HSPA+ at an impressive rate, Clearwire announced its intention to move to LTE, Verizon is betting big on LTE and looking for competitive marketing advantage over the course of the next 12 months. AT&T has been adding backhaul, upgrading to HSPA+ and planning for LTE all at once. Even the smaller carriers like MetroPCS are looking for competitive advantage with quicker LTE launch and beat others by carrying the first LTE smartphone. (We will be releasing the next edition of our “State of the “Mobile” Broadband Nation” paper later this year)
As we had mentioned last year, the mobile data traffic kept on growing disproportional to the revenues. A series of solutions have come into the market from players big and small. We released the second edition of our in-depth research paper on data growth - "Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era" last quarter.
We will be keeping a very close eye on the micro- and macro-trends and reporting on the market on a regular basis in various private and public settings.
Against this backdrop, the analysis of the Q2 2010 US wireless data market is:
Service Revenues (Slides 7, 16)
- The US Wireless data service revenues grew 6% Q/Q to $13.2B in Q210. Compared to Q209, the mobile data service revenues grew 22%.
- Verizon and AT&T accounted for 75% of the increase in data revenues in Q2 2010.
- T-Mobile’s 3G drive is starting to pay off. While the net-adds were still in the red, its data growth is starting to match with its peers. The 20% 3G smartphone base definitely helps.
- Verizon Wireless again nudged past NTT DoCoMo in overall mobile data revenues by a whisker. By the end of the year, China Mobile and AT&T are also likely to cross their Japanese counterpart in quarterly mobile data service revenues.
- AT&T and Verizon now account for 70% of the market data services revenues and 62% of the subscription base.
ARPU (Slides 8-11)
- The Overall ARPU increased by $0.46 reversing the declining trend of the past three quarters. Average voice ARPU declined by $0.13 while the average data ARPU grew by $0.58 or 4% Q/Q.
- The average industry percentage contribution of data to overall ARPU is now 31% in Q210.
- Verizon led in data ARPU with $17.37 followed by AT&T and Sprint. In terms of % contribution, all the top three operators exceeded the 30% mark. T-Mobile ended the quarter with approximately 25% of its revenue coming from data services.
Subscribers (Slides 12-14)
- Overall netadds stayed stable at just over 3M with AT&T gaining the lion-share (though their count now includes the connected devices while other operators don’t specifically include that in the calculations).
- The texting see-saw between US and Philippines continued in Q210. US averaged around 639 messages/user/mo marginally behind Philippines.
- For the third straight quarter, AT&T reported more net-adds from connected devices than postpaid subs. Connected devices are now 7% of AT&T’s subscription base.
- Sprint got back into the positive net-adds territory again after 3 years. T-Mobile’s net-adds continued to decline. T-Mobile’s 20% and Sprint’s 23% subscriber base is now prepaid. The national prepaid penetration is touching 20%.
Applications and Services
- Non-messaging services continues to grab 60-65% of the data revenues for the US carriers.
- There is a significant shift taking place in terms of app revenues. In 2010, there will be more revenues generated (globally) from off-deck than on-deck for the first time and while the on-deck revenues are in billions, the decline trend looks irreversible. In the US, this shift will occur next year. (We released our mobile apps economy research paper earlier this year)
- The usage and data consumption trends are enabling carriers to accelerate their 3.5G/4G plans and develop long-term business and technical strategies.
Handsets
- Nokia sold 111M units in Q2 2010 amounting for 36% of the market share. Samsung again had a solid quarter with 64M devices sold with the share at 21%. LG Electronics at 10%, Sony Ericsson and RIM at 3.6% rounded up the top 5.
- Apple shipped 8.4M iPhones in Q2 but the criticism over the antenna design took some shine out from yet another home run.
- Smartphone penetration increased to 31% in the US market
Data Traffic (Slide 15)
· As we noted in our last update, the data traffic is now significantly more than the voice traffic. By 1H 2010, the average US consumer was consuming approximately 230 MB/mo up 50% in 6 months. The good news is that there are several solutions available and are being invented that will help manage the data growth starting with the tiered pricing plans.
To discuss all these trends and more, we are putting together a unique Mobile Future Forward Executive Summit and are fortunate to have the company of some of the sharpest minds in the industry, folks who both have the vision to shape the evolution and the authority to invest billions of dollars this decade to make things happen. Hope to see you in Seattle on Sept 8th.
Abhi Ingle, VP, AT&T; Amir Mashkoori, CEO, Kovio; Anand Chandrasekhar, SVP & GM, Intel; Bob Azzi, SVP - Network, Sprint Nextel; Christopher Dean, Chief Strategy Officer, Skype; Danny Bowman, President, Sprint Nextel; David Weiden, General Partner, Khosla Ventures; Dr. Boris Nikolic, Sr. Program Officer, Global Health & Discovery, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Dr. Genevieve Bell, Intel Fellow & Director, User Experience, Intel; Dr. Greg Brandenberg, CEO, Columbia Basin Health Association; Dr. Sailesh Chutani, CEO, Mobisante; Dr. Suzanne Clough, Chief Medical Officer, WellDoc; Erick Tseng, Head of Mobile, Facebook; Glenn Lurie, President, AT&T; Hank Skorny, SVP, Media Mobile Cloud Computing, Real Networks; Jack Kennedy, EVP, News Corp; Joe Sims, Lead Partner - Digital Convergence , Booz & Company; Jon Stross, VP & GM - Babycenter, Johnson & Johnson; Ken Denman, CEO, Openwave; Krishna Vedati, SVP & GM - Mobile, AT&T Interactive; Lirong Shi, President, ZTE; Louis Gump, VP Mobile, CNN; Mario Queiroz, VP - Product Management - Android, Google; Mark Selby, VP, Nokia; Matt Bross, CTO and Vice Chairman, Huawei; Michael Sievert, Chief Commercial Officer, Clearwire; Neville Ray, Chief Network Officer, T-Mobile ; Omar Javaid, CEO, BBDO; Paul Palmieri, Founder and CEO, Millennial Media; Rob Glaser, Chairman, Real Networks and Partner, Accel; Sean Cai, VP - Advanced Technology, ZTE; Stephen David, Former CIO, Proctor & Gamble; Subba Rao, CEO, TataDoCoMo; Takayuki Hoshuyama, CEO D2 Communications; Tim Chang, Partner, NVP;Tony Lewis, VP, Verizon; Wim Sweldens, President, Alcatel-Lucent
Each panel discussion will involve luminaries/experts on specific topics, for e.g.
Opportunities in Mobile
Mike Sievert, CCO, Clearwire
Dr. Genevieve Bell, Fellow, Intel
Shi Lirong, President, ZTE
Subba Rao, CEO, Tata DoCoMo
Evolution of Communication/ Engagement
Christopher Dean, Chief Strategy Officer, Skype
Erick Tseng, Head of Mobile, Facebook
Mario Queiroz, VP, Google
David Weiden, General Partner, Khosla Ventures
The size of the panel will be small and the time duration long so we can delve deep into the issues and questions. For more panel, speaker, sponsor, and program details, please visithttp://www.mobilefutureforward.com
Your feedback is always welcome.
Thanks.
Chetan Sharma
We will be keeping a close eye on the trends in the wireless data sector in our blog, twitter feeds, future research reports, and articles. The next US Wireless Data Market update will be released in Nov 2010. The next Global Wireless Data Market update will be issued in Sept 2010.
Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this paper are our clients.
In case you missed … August 1, 2010
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentstories from July ..
July
Reuters - App pioneer Getjar plans to stay independent
American Public Media: The Coming Data Traffic Jam (audio)
Reuters - Telecom software groups merge in app store battle
Ecommerce Journal - End of Apple App Store reign: WAC merges JIL
KPBS - Qualcomm Stock Price Jumps After Increased Profit Report
RCR Unplugged - Mobile apps revenues to reach $25B by 2014
MobileGetsPersonal - Sharma Outlines Industry Move to Tiered Pricing
ReadWriteWeb - 25 Billion Mobile App Downloads by 2015
American Medical News - Who made the app for that? Tale of 3 app developers
Nokia Conversations - Friday’s Pick
St. Petersburg Times - Mixed signals surround Apple over iPhone Antenna
Boston Herald - Antenna kerfuffle overshadows iPhone 4’s other successes
Businessweek - Smartphone Apps for College
Mobile Marketing - The Mobile World According to Chetan Sharma
Mediapost - Looking Back and Ahead In 2010 with Chetan Sharma
USA Today - Adam Curry shows off iPhone apps in his own video show
Business Week - Wireless Data: The End of All-You-Can-Eat?
Cellular News - Gaming to the future driver of mobile Internet
Mobile Future Forward – Preliminary Agenda Announced July 28, 2010
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentMobile Future Forward – Seattle – Sept 8th
We are putting together an exciting agenda for the mobile executive summit with an incredible line-up of speakers, thinkers and doers. The meeting of the minds will hopefully inspire you, help meet the "key" decision makers in the mobile ecosystem, and learn a thing or two about the future direction of the mobile industry.
Give us your one day and we will give you the next 5 years in mobile.
Registration and other information at http://www.mobilefutureforward.com.
Avail your discount by using the code FUTBOL (expires July 31st 2010)
In proud partnership with: Amdocs, Bango, Clearwire, Intel, Millennial Media, OpenMarket, Openwave, Real Networks, Wavefront, and ZTE
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Sept 8th 2010 |
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6:30 am |
Registration Opens. Breakfast and Networking |
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8:00 am |
Introduction and Welcome |
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8:30 am |
Keynote - Stephen David, former CIO, Procter & Gamble |
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9:00 am |
Keynote - Glenn Lurie, President - Emerging Devices, AT&T |
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9:30 am |
Keynote - Anand Chandrasekher, SVP and GM - Mobile, Intel |
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10 - 10:30 am |
Break |
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10:30 am |
Keynote - Takayuki Hoshuyama, CEO, D2Communications |
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11:00 am |
Taking the pulse and where do we go from here Mike Sievert, Chief Commercial Officer, Clearwire Dr. Genevieve Bell, Fellow, Intel Lirong Shi, President, ZTE Subba Rao, CEO, Tata DoCoMo |
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12 - 1:30 pm |
Lunch |
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1:30 pm |
Network and Mobile Data Evolution 2010-2015 Wims Sweldens, President, Alcatel-Lucent Neville Ray, Chief Network Officer, T-Mobile Bob Azzi, Senior Vice President, Sprint Matt Bross, CTO and Vice Chairman, Huawei Sean Cai, Vice President - Advanced Wireless Technology, ZTE Ken Denman, CEO, Openwave Louis Gump, Vice President - Mobile, CNN Jack Kennedy, Senior Vice President - Digital, News Corp Omar Javaid, Vice President, Converged Media, Motorola Paul Palmieri, CEO, Millennial Media John Zehr, Senior Vice President, ESPN Digital Rob Glaser, Chairman, Real Networks and Partner, Accel |
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2:30 pm |
mHealth - The Impact on Society and Global Health Dr. Sailesh Chutani, CEO, Mobisante Jon Stross, General Manager and Vice President, Babycenter.com Dr. Boris Nikolic, Sr. Program Director, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Dr. Greg Brandenberg, CEO, Columbia Basin Health Association Dr. Suzanne Clough, Chief Medical Officer, Welldoc |
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3:30 - 4:00 pm |
Break |
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4:00 pm |
Evolution of Communication and Social Interaction Christopher Dean, Chief Strategy Officer, Skype Mario Quirez, Vice President - Product Management, Google David Weiden, General Partner, Khosla Ventures Joe Sims, Lead Partner, Booz&Co Chamath Palihapitiya, Vice President - Mobile, Growth, Intl, Facebook Mobile Cloud Computing - At the Tipping Point? Hank Skorny, Senior Vice President - Media Cloud Computing, Real Networks Brian Shepherd, President - Mobile Services and Marketing, Amdocs Abhi Ingle, Vice President - Industry & Mobility Application Solutions, AT&T |
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5:00 pm |
Internet of Things Amir Mashkoori, CEO, Kovio Tony Lewis, Vice President - Open Development, Verizon Danny Bowman, President - Integrated Solutions Group, Sprint Mark Selby, Vice President - Industry Collaboration, Nokia At the Intersection of Gaming, Social, and Commerce |
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6:00 - 8:00 pm |
Adjourn, Reception, and Networking |
Agenda subject to change
Register today at http://www.mobilefutureforward.com/register.html
40 Reasons to Attend Mobile Future Forward July 27, 2010
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentRegular readers know, we have been slowing working towards Mobile Future Forward which is shaping us really nicely. For the folks still on the fence, here are the 40 reasons to invest your time in Mobile Future Forward:
Glenn Lurie, President, AT&T
Danny Bowman, President, Sprint
Subba Rao, CEO, TataDoCoMo
Lirong Shi, President, ZTE
Brian Shepherd, President, Amdocs
Mike Sievert, CCO, Clearwire
Louis Gump, VP Mobile, CNN
Paul Palmieri, CEO, Millennial Media
Dr. Sailesh Chutani, CEO, Mobisante
Abhi Ingle, VP, AT&T
Ken Denman, CEO, Openwave
Amir Mashkoori, CEO, Kovio
Stephen David, Former CIO, Proctor & Gamble
Dr. Genevieve Bell, Intel Fellow, Intel
Hank Skorny, SVP, Real Networks
Jon Stross, VP/GM - Babycenter
Krishna Vedati, SVP/GM - Mobile, AT&T Interactive
Christopher Dean, CSO, Skype
Jack Kennedy, EVP, News Corp
David Weiden, Partner, Khosla Ventures
Anand Chandrasekhar, SVP/GM, Intel
Chamath Palihapitiya, VP Growth/Mobile, Facebook
Rob Glaser, Chairman, Real Networks
Wim Sweldens, President, Alcatel Lucent
Takayuki Hoshuyama, CEO, D2Communications
Neville Ray, SVP, T-Mobile
Bob Azzi, SVP, Sprint
Mario Queiroz, VP—Android, Google
Matt Bross, CTO/Vice Chairman, Huawei
Tony Lewis, VP, Verizon
Sean Cai, VP, ZTE
Mark Selby, VP, Nokia
Omar Javaid, VP, Motorola
Chris Murphy, Head Digital Strategy, adidas
Tim Chang, Partner, NVP
Dr. Suzanne Clough, CMO, Welldoc
Dr. Boris Nikolic, Program Manager, Bill&Melinda Gates Foundation
John Zehr, SVP, ESPN
Joe Sims, Partner, Booz&Co.
Dr. Greg Brandenberg, CEO, CBHA
More details at www.mobilefutureforward.com – Hope to see you there.
American Public Media: The Coming Data Traffic Jam July 25, 2010
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentHad a chance last week to discuss mobile data congestion with John Moe host of Future Tense at American Public Media
The coming data traffic jam
07/23/10 09:35 AM
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If you don’t own a smart phone now, you probably will soon.
Here’s the picture from Wall Street: Nokia, which pretty much makes regular old cell phones, announced a 40 percent drop in revenues Thursday. On the same day, AT&T said they had a huge quarter with lots of new customers for the iPhone activated 3.2 million new iPhones last quarter. Meanwhile, research firm Strategy Analytics says smart phone shipments are up 43 percent worldwide.
Americans are ditching cell phones in favor of devices that can make calls AND check email AND update Facebook AND stream video AND you get the idea. In the process, we’re flooding the data networks these smart phones rely on. It’s lots of fun now, but is it sustainable? Can the networks do what we’re asking of them?
We check in with industry analyst Cheetan Sharma, whose clients include both AT&T and Verizon, about this issue. We also talk to Glenn Fleishman of Wi-Fi Networking News.
Mobile Industry 1H 2010 Assessment July 8, 2010
Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, BRIC, CTIA, Carnival of Mobilists, Carriers, Enterprise Mobility, European Wireless Market, Gaming, Indian Wireless Market, Japan Wireless Market, M&A, MVNO, Mergers and Acquisitions, Microsoft Mobile, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Event, Mobile Future, Mobile Future Forward, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Search, Mobile TV, Mobile Traffic, Partnership, Smart Phones, Speaking Engagements, Strategy, US Wireless Market, Usability, VoIP, Wi-Fi, WiMax, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 2 commentsMobile Industry 1H 2010 Assessment
http://chetansharma.com/1H10mobileassessment.htm
As the mobile world approaches the 5 billion subscription landmark, it is time to do a half yearly assessment of 2010. We will have our official Q2 2010 analysis for the US market in Aug and the global analysis for 1H 2010 in Sept after all the numbers are in. In the meantime, it might be worthwhile to take a stock of the first 6 months, the ensuing trends and what they mean for the long-term.
Mobile Ecosystem has become much more complex
In case you didn’t notice, the competitive landscape has changed significantly over the last 6-12 months. The fine line between partners and competitors can get obliterated in a quarter. Apple is competing with Cisco, Comcast is going after AT&T’s business, Visa and Verizon want to be the payment channel of choice, Amazon is gunning for Microsoft’s enterprise business, Kodak is competing with Yahoo, so on and so forth. One product launch, one acquisition, can change the game in an instant. And this is only the beginning.
Network evolution: more capacity, more bandwidth, tremendous usage
We have covered this topic in detail in our paper - Managing growth and profits in the Yottabyte era. As we had predicted, the tiering of pricing plan has started in the US which is actually a good thing. It will force some discipline and technology innovation to solve the longer-term problem of network congestion. While AT&T got things in motion, market forces will take care of the right pricing and GB levels in the coming months. Data consumption on TeliaSonera and Clearwire’s network is a good indicator of what’s to come with 3-4x the usage compared to its counterparts.
New sources of revenue: mobile advertising, commerce, and more
Regular readers know that we have been bullish on the mobile advertising space for a long time. Over the last 6 months or so, some of the pieces are coming together though significant amount of work remains. Sergio Zyman, former CMO of Coca Cola once said “There is only one rule: advertising must sell.” And nothing will sell better than mobile. Period. While North America and Western Europe have been slow to wake up to the mobile commerce opportunities, in Japan, it is already a multi-billion dollar industry. Several trials are underway that are going to help open up the western market in the next 12 months for significant opportunities. In fact, the pie for the mobile services will keep on growing bigger but so will the number of players who want a piece of it. This will set up an interesting tug-of-war for the next couple of years
It’s the iPhone, dude!
Just when the competitors think they are all caught up with Apple, Steve Jobs and co. releases a new product that raises the bar further. Google, Samsung, HTC, LG, Motorola have done well in emulating Apple while Microsoft and Nokia have fallen behind. The embarrassing launch and demise of KIN is a example of how confused things are for some of the players. While both Microsoft and Nokia are capable for mounting good comebacks, it will take more than an org change and a sprinkle of holy water. Android will easily outsell iPhone just by the law of arithmetic but Apple’s secret weapon is iTunes. With over 150M billing relationships, it has fostered a great apps ecosystem that others will find hard to replicate entirely. While some point to Apple’s tiny marketshare, wall street looks at the fat margins - rewarding Apple by making it the most valuable technology company surpassing Microsoft in a major tech tremor. Google has run the mobile chess game with great acumen so far. Despite the Nexus experiment, the explosion of the superphone category has gone according to the plan. Overall, most of the western operators are selling smartphones at 50%+ levels each quarter.
Always On Real-Time Access
The always-connected vision of the late Mark Weiser is finally approaching some realization. Mobile is so perfectly suited for cloud computing. The younger generation is growing with the expectation that they can get access to any content from any device anywhere. The constraints and friction that doesn’t allow them to do that is just not acceptable. As such, the mobile industry is scrambling to provide tools and technologies that help the digerati access content at will. All this has to be designed and developed against the current network, content, and device constraints and evolution paths. Whether it is access to music or movies for a 15 year old or availability of the entire corporate knowledgebase, information will need to be available at a touch of a button. Companies big and small are investing in the infrastructure and software tools to make this happen. We are likely to see some interesting launches in the next 12 months.
Battle for the analytical mind - data, context and intelligence drives everything
Many people don’t realize that the battle for the consumer of 2015-2020 has already begun. The company that has the best understanding about the most consumers will have a pole position in the mobile ecosystem. Players like Google, Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Microsoft, Facebook, Twitter, China Mobile, Disney, AT&T, Vodafone, Motorola, and others are amassing a lot of information on individuals. Besides Google and Apple, Facebook has quietly become one of the most important players in the mobile ecosystem with its phenomenal reach across many countries, tremendous stickiness of the app, and innovative onboarding process of the carriers. Of course, data is a double edged sword - it can provide enormous benefits to consumers in terms of intelligence, experience, and engagement and can also prove to be problematic when privacy and data breaches happen. In fact, that will be one of the tightest ropes many including the regulators will have to walk this decade - figuring out what they call in Swedish - logam - the right balance.
Apps vs. the Web
Recently, the ecosystem has been more enamored with the apps vs. the web debate than the early departure of Brazil and Argentina from the world cup. It is rather a silly debate. As we mentioned in our apps economy paper, both worlds will coexist for a long time. What matters for the developers is the “reach” of a certain platform or technology and the “cost” and “potential” of that reach. For the user, the only thing that matters is what’s available on “their” device. Obviously, the capabilities of the mobile browser will grow over time and it will make more sense to build certain category of applications for the web vs. on the native platforms but developers live and die in the present.
Internet of Things
Nokia took the leadership stance of announcing that all of their smartphones by the next year will have NFC. You can expect pretty much all major OEMs following the same trend which means that hundreds of millions of devices will be equipped with a chipset that will enable new experiences, applications and services. Though we still need to do a lot of work to complete the end-to-end ecosystem, we are getting close. Further, all major carriers have created separate units to address the M2M and emerging devices opportunity. iPad showed what’s possible - it fundamentally created a new leisure computing category. Also, iPad (and similar form factor devices) will find good usage in the enterprise as well. Pretty soon, it will be hard to imagine a computing device without the communication capability. Operators will have to release pricing plans to accommodate such an evolution.
Nurturing ecosystems - fight for the developer mindshare
It is good to be a developer in 2010. The success of many players goes through developersville. The love fest won’t last forever though, it will depend on how vibrant the various ecosystems become and how profitable individual developer shops are over the course of time. One thing Microsoft did very well with the windows empire was to create a web of partners and developers who were incented to use the tools and develop for the platform. In a more fragmented world of mobile, things are a bit complicated. Developers don’t have time or the energy to go after the newest, shiniest toy, what matters in the end is the “cost” to develop, “reach/distribution” of the platform, and “potential” of the reach. Players who don’t consciously make an effort to make developers thrive in their ecosystem will see their developer efforts collapse like house of cards. While the media attention is squarely on iOS and Android, we are not heading down the duopoly path as the dynamics of the mobile ecosystem are significantly different from that of the PC. RIM, Nokia, Samsung and others will do well, the fight is over the relative rankings in the pecking order.
Shifts in the revenue sand dunes
By the end of 2010, the global ondeck revenues will be overtaken by the offdeck revenues. As the smartphone penetration grows, it is less likely that the user will purchase VAS from the operator. While the carrier gets a healthy access revenue of $15-40 or more/month, the VAS business is shrinking for many. Some operators are trying to extract some value but are likely to follow T-Mobile’s path and give up on the smartphone appstore eventually. On the featurephones and probably low-tier smartphones, operator do have a role to play but perhaps some of it can be outsourced to other appstore providers so that they can focus on higher-margin services. We are going to see a readjusting of the appstores again in the next 12-24 months with the weaker ones whittling away from the landscape.
New experiences - display, interaction and commerce
The man-machine interaction took a significant leap with the introduction of the iPhone. Now the touch-interface is embedded in our evolutionary genes. There is significant work going into accomplishing more with less friction with the help of new interfaces and experiences that can like trying out a new outfit in front of a mirror - at home or in the store and with a flick of finger - choose the color, purchase it, and get it shipped. The amount of time it takes to “accomplish any given task” is going to reduce dramatically. With the help of contextual sensors, extreme personalization, and brainiac software, we will take automation to a new level. This will lead to new experiences that will enable more commerce, social interaction and participation, and general awareness and intelligence about every day things. Examples like Kinect, Augmented Reality, Projection displays are just the start of the decade when the display and interaction paradigms will be fundamentally redefined.
Reallocation of revenues - winners and losers are decided in reallocation
If we take a look at the spending habits of the US consumers on “access and communication services” which includes the spending on Telephone, Cable, Internet, and Cell phones, the total “access” spending over the course of last decade has been consistently around 4% of the total personal income per capita. However, the share of each of the services has been changing steadily. Telephone used to have 65% share of the spending but is going to be below 30% by end of 2010. Others have been climbing at the expense of telephone revenues, especially the cellphones which since 2007 command the highest share. So, the overall spending has stayed constant while there has been significant reallocation of spending. Similarly, within cell phone services, data has gone from being less than 1% of the overall revenues to over 35% in 2010 and is going to be more than 50% of the overall revenue mix by early 2013. Mobile operators will need to figure out how to manage these reallocation undercurrents and maintain the overall life time value of the customer. It will come from re-architecting of the business and technology practices as well through the introduction of new services.
Mobile takes off in Verticals
Mobile has become a full-fledged computing platform and other industries are taking notice. There is significant work going on in the mHealth, mRetail, mCommerce, mEducation, mEnergy, and others to keep things busy for the next few years. There are some really innovative startups focused on making use of the computing power that the device affords and turn them into full-fledged medical instruments. Add the communication bit and you can see the revolution happening in front of your eyes. The impact on saving lives and quality of health care will be tremendous - worldwide. The regulators and the legacy players will need to keep up. As we mentioned before, the NFC wave is coming and if all goes well, it will change the retail experience. Stay tuned.
(Mobile) World is flat
There is a significant readjusting of players going on right now with some of the Asian players flexing their muscles for dominant share of the market. Competition is driving more M&A, the gravity of the mobile data world is slowly shifting from Japan and Korea to the US with Verizon overtaking the long time leader NTT DoCoMo in terms of quarterly mobile data revenues. India’s Bharti became the number 5 operator after completing the acquisition of Zain. On the device front, Samsung and LG have been ferocious in their pursuit of marketshare and have been rewarded well by their performance esp. in the North American market. HTC has undergone metamorphosis and has become a serious competitor. Many non-traditional brands like Dell, Garmin, HP, Cisco are also flexing their muscles in the space that has become the computing battleground. On the infrastructure front, ZTE and Huawei are going to make life difficult for some of the players. We can expect the big “M&As” to continue as the industry consolidates around the top 3 players in different markets and sectors. The local skirmishes will spill into the global arena. North American operators have been curiously silent on the global front. Being the most lucrative mobile market probably has something to do with it but we can expect some of the bigger players to go shopping in the coming days.
Regulatory Excursions
The much-awaited national broadband plan was finally unveiled earlier this year. The current FCC has done a good job of engaging the industry and informing the citizens, better than its predecessors. It is also taking a deeper interest in setting up guidelines for the industry. The Comcast ruling was a setback but FCC is moving ahead with its plans. It will be interesting to see the execution details and how things pan out over the course of this decade. Similarly, regulatory agencies in other nations are acutely aware of the role broadband plays in nations economy and competitiveness and what they need to do keep their country on track. The mad scramble for more spectrum is underway. FTC is also keeping a close eye on the mobile industry for privacy related violations. If someone has any doubts of how much regulators are likely to get involved in this matter should read through the settlement between the FTC and Twitter.
Scenario Analysis - more changes in the next 10 years than in the previous 100
Despite all the commotion, the excitement, and the turbulence in the ecosystem, the trajectory of the winners and losers is not set. Like the Chaos theory, a lot depends on how the dynamic elements of the mobile universe effect and react to changes. Players will do well to have strategies in place per scenario so they can adapt quickly and keep the mother ship in the right direction. We can expect more changes in the next 10 years than in the previous 100. The triggers for various scenarios will vary - regulatory, competitive, technology, business model, consumer adoption, economic - each of these can have an impact on how a trend becomes the fact of life.
To discuss all these trends and more, we are putting together a unique Mobile Future Forward Executive Summit and are fortunate to have the company of some of the sharpest minds in the industry, folks who both have the vision to shape the evolution and the authority to invest billions of dollars this decade to make things happen. Hope to see you in Seattle on Sept 8th.
First 25 readers to use the discount code FUTBOL get $200 off the regular price.
Abhi Ingle, VP, AT&T; Amir Mashkoori, CEO, Kovio; Anand Chandrasekhar, SVP & GM, Intel; Bob Azzi, SVP - Network, Sprint Nextel; Chamath Palihapitiya, VP - Growth, Mobile, Intl, Facebook; Christopher Dean, Chief Strategy Officer, Skype; Danny Bowman,President, Sprint Nextel; David Weiden, General Partner, Khosla Ventures; Dr. Boris Nikolic, Sr. Program Officer, Global Health & Discovery, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Dr. Genevieve Bell, Intel Fellow & Director, User Experience, Intel; Dr. Greg Brandenberg,CEO, Columbia Basin Health Association; Dr. Sailesh Chutani, CEO, Mobisante; Dr. Suzanne Clough, Chief Medical Officer, WellDoc; Glenn Lurie, President, AT&T; Hank Skorny, SVP, Media Mobile Cloud Computing, Real Networks; Jack Kennedy, EVP, News Corp; Joe Sims, Lead Partner - Digital Convergence , Booz & Company; Jon Stross, VP & GM - Babycenter, Johnson & Johnson; Ken Denman, CEO, Openwave; Krishna Vedati, SVP & GM - Mobile, AT&T Interactive; Lirong Shi, President, ZTE; Louis Gump, VP Mobile, CNN; Mario Queiroz, VP - Product Management - Android, Google; Mark Selby, VP, Nokia; Matt Bross,CTO and Vice Chairman, Huawei; Michael Sievert, Chief Commercial Officer, Clearwire;Neville Ray, Chief Network Officer, T-Mobile ; Omar Javaid, CEO, BBDO; Paul Palmieri, Founder and CEO, Millennial Media; Rob Glaser, Chairman, Real Networks and Partner, Accel;Sean Cai, VP - Advanced Technology, ZTE; Stephen David, Former CIO, Proctor & Gamble;Subba Rao, CEO, TataDoCoMo; Takayuki Hoshuyama, CEO D2 Communications; Tony Lewis, VP, Verizon; Wim Sweldens, President, Alcatel-Lucent
Each panel discussion will involve luminaries/experts on specific topics, for e.g.
M2M/Internet of Things
Danny Bowman, President, Sprint
Amir Mashkoori, CEO, Kovio
Tony Lewis, VP, Verizon Wireless
Mark Selby, VP, Nokia
Evolution of Communication/ Engagement
Christopher Dean, Chief Strategy Officer, Skype
Chamath Palihapitiya, VP - Mobile, Facebook
Mario Queiroz, VP - Android, Google
David Weiden, General Partner, Khosla Ventures
The size of the panel will be small and the time duration long so we can delve deep into the issues and questions. For more details, please visit http://www.mobilefutureforward.com
Your feedback is always welcome.
Thanks.
Chetan Sharma
Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this paper are our clients.
BW Article: Smartphone Use on the Web Goes Mainstream
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentTalked to Businessweek about the pricing plans, data consumption and all things smartphones
Smartphone Use on the Web Goes ‘Mainstream’
More U.S. adults—particularly African Americans and Hispanics—are using smartphones to e-mail, network, surf, and send video, says Pew Research
By Olga Kharif
Smartphone use is gathering steam in the U.S., new research shows. Forty percent of American adults use their cell phones to surf the Web, e-mail, or use instant messaging, according to a study from Pew Research Center in Washington.
That’s up from 32 percent a year ago, based on Pew’s survey of 2,252 adults ages 18 and older that was released on July 7. "The smartphone has really penetrated the mainstream of American society," says Aaron Smith, a Pew research specialist. In the first quarter, smartphones accounted for 34 percent of all mobile handsets sold in the U.S., up from 31 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, according to consultant NPD Group.
Smartphone sales are getting a summer boost from last month’s introduction of Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone 4 from AT&T (T). Motorola’s (MOT) Droid X will be released through Verizon Wireless on July 15.
A separate report suggests that smartphone growth may ebb in the second half of the year as high unemployment and the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico curb consumer confidence and curtail demand for some nonessential services. "Remarkable smartphone-penetration growth is going to slow down," says Tero Kuittinen, a senior analyst at MKM Partners, an institutional equity trading and research firm in Stamford, Conn., in an interview. After rising for three consecutive months, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped in June to near the level it reached in March. The index is based on a survey of 5,000 U.S. households and reflects consumer sentiment about the economy.
Amid economic woes, the next smartphone growth spurt may come from cheaper devices. "Specifically, consumers want smartphones priced at $100-$190, and our research finds little supply in this price range," Kuittinen wrote in a July 6 MKM report. To keep sales up, device manufacturers may have to face faster-than-expected price drops through 2011, he says. Phone makers such as Huawei and LG (066570:KS) are expected to push into lower-priced smartphones in the next year.
WEB ACCESS VIA OTHER DEVICES
To spur adoption, carriers may need to keep slashing prices on their cheapest smartphone plans as well. AT&T, the second-largest U.S. mobile-service provider, introduced a $15 limited data plan on June 2. In six to nine months, the average smartphone user will pay just $10 a month for data connectivity, down from $15 today, estimates wireless consultant Chetan Sharma. "The barriers to getting data plans are coming down," he says.
Less-expensive data plans may encourage additional consumers to access the Web via smartphones and other mobile devices. Some 3 percent of respondents in the Pew survey own a tablet PC such as an iPad. About 60 percent of them have used the device to access the Internet. About 4 percent own e-book readers such as Amazon.com’s (AMZN) Kindle and almost half use the gadgets to access the Web.
Overall, 59 percent of adults in the U.S. go online wirelessly, via Wi-Fi or mobile connections, on cell phones and laptops, up from 51 percent a year ago, according to the Pew report. Among all cell-phone owners, 54 percent used their devices to send photos and videos, 23 percent accessed a social networking site, and 11 percent made a purchase.
Older adults are venturing onto the mobile Web in larger numbers, too. Some 43 percent of people between the ages of 30 and 49 access the Internet, up from 31 percent a year ago, the study showed. Those people are also more likely to send or receive e-mails and instant messages. African American and Hispanic consumers remain at the forefront of mobile-Web adoption. More than 50 percent of English-speaking Hispanic users access the Internet on their phones, compared with 46 percent of African Americans and 33 percent of Caucasians, the Pew study found. "For many Americans, their cell phone is one of the essential utilities of modern life," says Pew’s Smith.
Kharif is a reporter for Bloomberg Businessweek in Portland, Ore.
Partner Event Next Week – Mobilebeat
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentMobileBeat 2010, VentureBeat’s third annual conference on the future of mobile, is less than a week away! Recently added to the program is John Donovan, CTO of AT&T Operations, who completes a powerful keynote lineup that includes Phil McKinney, VP & CTO of HP’s Personal System Groups, Omar Khan, Chief Strategy Officer of Samsung, and Omar Hamoui, AdMob founder and now Google’s VP of Mobile Ads. Newly added panelists include Christy Wyatt of Motorola Mobile Devices, Pooja Midha of MTV Networks Digital and Ian McKerlich of T-Mobile who join a stellar array of insiders such as Erick Tseng of Facebook and Kevin Thau of Twitter.
Click here and use promo code "VB-Chetan" to get 15% off.
This year’s new two-day format will explore "The Year of The Superphone and Who Will Profit", and will be held on July 12-13 at The Palace Hotel in San Francisco. Heavy-hitters from all sectors of the mobile ecosystem are assembling at MobileBeat 2010 to discuss, debate, and explore who’ll win in the midst of the superphone revolution, and why. Find out which of the growing number of mobile platforms is winning the hearts and minds of developers with T-Mobile, Google Mobile, Symbian and Angry Bird. Take on the subject of location with Twitter’s Director of Geo, Location Labs, SCVNGR and Booyah. Hear about what’s next on the horizon of the hot mobile gaming arena with Zynga, Moblyng, Chomp and PapayaMobile.
You’ll also get a peek at 20 of the hottest new mobile startups in the applications and infrastructure/services categories as they present live onstage at the MobileBeat 2010 Startup Competition. Help select the ones most likely to shake up the mobile world. Winners will receive VentureBeat’s coveted Tesla Award.
Agenda highlights:
Keynotes
- John Donovan, CTO AT&T Operations
- Phil McKinney, VP & CTO of HP’s Personal System Groups
- Omar Khan, Chief Strategy Officer of Samsung
- Omar Hamoui, AdMob founder and now Google’s VP of Mobile Ads
Move over, Telcos, Here comes Silicon Valley
- Samir Argawal, Nokia, Head of MeeGo software development
- Kevin Thau, director of mobile, Twitter
Mobile Platforms 1: the Future Struggle Among the Titans
- Christy Wyatt, SVP Motorola
- David Ko, Yahoo! SVP, Audience, Mobile and Local, North America
- Alan Brenner, SVP at RIM
Mobile Platforms 2: Who is Winning the Heart of Developers?
- Jason Spero, Director, Mobile, Google
- Ian McKerlich, T-Mobile, Director of Mobile Content
- Oliver Gunasakera, Symbian
- Peter Vesterbacka, Angry Bird
Building a Successful Mousetrap
- Russ McGuire, Sprint, VP of Strategy
- "Tyler Lessard VP, Global Alliances and Developer Relations RIM
- Ilja Laurs, founder and CEO, GetJar
- Laura Merling, Alcatel-Lucent, Vice President Developer Plat. and Programs
It’s 5pm. Do You Know Where Your Friends Are?
- Othman Laraki, Director Geo, Twitter
- Tasso Roumeliotis, Location Labs, Founder & CEO
- Seth Priebatsch, Chief Ninja, SCVNGR
- Keith Lee, CEO, Booyah (MyTown)
Enabling Mobile Games
- Stewart Putney, Founder and CEO, Moblyng
- Ben Keighran, Chomp, CEO & Co-Founder
- Si Chen, PapayaMobile, CEO
For a complete list of speakers, panels, and breakout sessions, check out the full agenda here.
Chetan Sharma Consulting will be attending. If you want to meet, give us a shout.
Mobile Future Forward: Participant Profile July 6, 2010
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a comment
http://www.mobilefutureforward.com
BW article: Wireless Data: The End of All-You-Can-Eat?
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , 1 comment so farTalked to Greg at Businessweek about the mobile data consumption trends. Regular readers shouldn’t be really surprised by this. We knew this for a couple of years 
sometimes it just takes a bit long
Wireless Data: The End of All-You-Can-Eat?
AT&T’s switch from unlimited plans may set the tone for U.S. carriers
When AT&T (T) announced on June 2 that it would stop offering an unlimited wireless data plan, it said 98 percent of its customers would save money with the change. About two weeks later, Verizon Wireless Chief Financial Officer John Killian said the largest U.S. carrier may soon follow suit and switch from all-you-can-eat data programs to tiered pricing.
The savings for half those AT&T customers, however, may disappear by 2013, says independent wireless analyst Chetan Sharma. Here’s why: Under the new plan, 2 gigabytes of data will cost $25 a month; each additional GB will cost $10. (The unlimited plan, still available to customers who signed contracts prior to the switch, costs $29.99.) Sharma, who has consulted for Motorola (MOT) and Qualcomm, predicts the average customer will consume 4 GB of data a month within three years, up from 150 megabytes in 2009 and an estimated 320 MB by yearend, noting that 4G networks, fully in place by mid-2012, will accelerate consumption.
Increasingly versatile and powerful devices such as Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone and iPad and HTC’s EVO are encouraging users to suck up more data. Verizon will begin selling the iPhone in January, as reported exclusively by Bloomberg News. AT&T, the No. 2 carrier in the U.S., says listening to 2.5 hours of streamed music a day adds up to 2.2 GB of data per month. Streaming a feature-length film to a mobile device eats up about 200 MB. "The downloading of video is really driving data usage," says Greg MacDonald, an analyst at National Bank Financial.
AT&T’s data-cap plan remains the exception in the U.S., but the billing method is commonplace in Europe. The move comes as landline revenues are shrinking and data is providing a fast-expanding portion of AT&T’s bottom line. Wireless data revenue rose 30 percent for the company in the first quarter, to $4.1 billion, while landline voice revenue fell 12 percent, to $7.5 billion.
Sprint Nextel (S), the third-largest U.S. wireless carrier, says it has no immediate plans to change its pricing. "It’s inevitable that most of the U.S. carriers will switch to tiered pricing as the usage continues to go up," says MacDonald.
The bottom line: As mobile data use per customer accelerates, other U.S. wireless providers are likely to follow AT&T and change their pricing policies.
Bensinger is a reporter for Bloomberg News.
In case you missed … July 1, 2010
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentHappy July. Articles from June ..
CNBC - Mobile Apps
San Diego Union Tribune - Low end of smartphones gets lift
Techflash - Morning Browse
Businessweek - AT&T’s money-saving plans will cost users more
Wired - Verizon signals the end of the unlimited data plan
Mercury News - Apple apologizes for iPhone 4 glitches
Wireless Week - T-Mobile Expands HSPA+ Coverage
BSN - Are iPhone Apps a Failed Business Model?
TMC - 3GPP Mobile Broadband sees 81% annual growth
PC Magazine - The Fastest Mobile Networks 2010
GigaOM - Picochip Gives Femtocells a New Lease on Life
TelecomTV - AT&T brings tiered mobile data pricing to the US
San Jose Mercury News - AT&T to stop offering "all you can eat" data plans
GigaOM - The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of AT&T’s New Pricing Plan
GigaOM - AT&T Shuts Down the Mobile Broadband Buffet
TMC Net - 3GPP Mobile Broadband Sees 81% Annual Growth
Mobile Entertainment - Nokia: We aspire to Apple’s user experience
Partner Event: paidContent Mobile
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a comment
Join paidContent Mobile:
Leveraging the Smartphone Boom
paidContent Mobile: Leveraging the Smartphone Boom, is being held on July 20th at Columbia University’s Faculty House in New York.
More mobile phones are morphing into portable computers, creating a dramatic shift in the way people consume content while on the move. Instead of buying ringtones for $3.99 and playing Pong, mobile subscribers are watching HD video, updating their statuses, and "checking-in" to venues.
This shift — a blurring of the lines between online and mobile — presents huge opportunities for mobile content companies, online veterans and traditional media conglomerates.
To be part of this important forward-looking conversation about the future of mobile content, register today and take advantage of the $495 early registration fee. Chetan Sharma Consulting readers can avail their discount by using the code CHETANGUEST
Mobile Future Forward: Early Bird Expires Today June 30, 2010
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentJust a quick note that the early bird for Mobile Future Forward – a $500 incentive to register early expires today. The summit is shaping up really nicely. Leaders from every part of the ecosystem are going to join us in an intensive morning to evening discussion on the future of mobile. Be There.
Mobile Apps Discussion on CNBC Powerlunch June 23, 2010
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , 2 comments
Ilja Laurs, CEO of Getjar appeared on CNBC earlier today, some stats from apps economy study were also shown. good overview.
Mobile Future Forward – Trends & Perspectives June 21, 2010
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , 1 comment so farSo, what are the trends that really matter over the course of this decade. Here are some thoughts:
- Mobile ecosystem is getting complex
- Network evolution: more capacity, more bandwidth, tremendous usage
- New sources of revenue: mobile advertising, commerce, and services
- Evolution of content, media, entertainment, and commerce
- Evolution of communication
- Always on Real-Time Access - mobile cloud computing & instant access to anything
- Internet of things: mobile device as a remote of our lives
- The world is flat - globalization and competition
- Mobile as a platform - let a thousand industries bloom
- New Experiences - display, interaction and commerce
- Reallocation of revenues - winners and losers are decided in reallocation
- Battle for the analytical mind - data, context and intelligence drives everything
- Shifts in ecosystem - the ups and downs, and shifts of revenue sand dunes
- Nurturing ecosystems - aggregating the developers and partners
- Managing the network - what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger
We discuss these in pictures in our Mobile Future Forward whitepaper.
Thanks
iPhone mania continues June 16, 2010
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , 1 comment so farApple announced today that they sold around 600K units ysday what turned out the be the biggest pre-order day in the history of Apple and AT&T. Can you imagine what will happen on the 24th when it goes on sale around the world. We are looking at 2-3 million units sold. While AT&T’s backend had some issues, it clearly demonstrates the appeal of the device and the brand.
Lot of critics ignore Apple’s success. Some say, they are just catching up on features. What people miss is that Apple is not trying to get any specific feature out in the market first, rather is focused on getting it right first. So, it doesn’t matter if visual voice mail or video conferencing have been around for years, can they be made simple enough for people to actually use it on large scale basis.
Companies should learn from what Apple does right rather than get consumed by envy or hate.
As for the complete collapse of the order system, while it is a good problem to have, it is certainly inexcusable. AT&T/Apple should have been ready for it. Or there is more to the story than a mere traffic spike, we just don’t know. In the end, Apple made close to $300M and AT&T probably added 200K new subs and upgraded the rest – not a bad day of work.
Announcing Mobile Future Forward Executive Summit June 14, 2010
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You have seen some hints of the project that we have been working on for sometime. We are proud to announce “Mobile Future Forward” Executive summit to be held in Seattle on Sept 8th, 2010.
Registration is Open Now. Early Bird expires June 30th 2010.
MFF is a gathering of some of the most brilliant minds in the mobile industry. The goal is to look at how mobile is likely to evolve over the course of this decade. We couldn’t have done this without the tremendous support of our excellent sponsors who are paving the way in their respective segments.
The speaker list includes the who’s who of the mobile industry:
Glenn Lurie, President, AT&T
Subba Rao, CEO, TataDoCoMo,
Mike Sievert, Chief Commercial Officer, Clearwire
Louis Gump, VP Mobile, CNN,
Paul Palmieri, Founder and CEO, Millennial Media
Dr. Sailesh Chutani, CEO, Mobisante
Abhi Ingle, VP, AT&T Wireless
Ken Denman, CEO, Openwave
Amir Mashkoori, CEO, Kovio
Stephen David, Former CIO, Proctor & Gamble
Dr. Genevieve Bell, Intel Fellow, User Experience, Intel
Hank Skorny, SVP, Real Networks
Jon Stross, VP & GM - Babycenter, Johnson & Johnson
Dr. Suzanne Sysko, Chief Medical Officer, WellDoc
Dr. Boris Nikolic, Sr. Program Officer, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Krishna Vedati, SVP & GM - Mobile, AT&T Interactive
Christopher Dean, Chief Strategy Officer, Skype
Russ McGuire, VP, Sprint Nextel
Jack Kennedy, EVP, News Corp
David Weiden, General Partner, Khosla Ventures
Anand Chandrasekhar, SVP and GM, Intel
Chamath Palihapitiya, VP Growth/Mobile, Facebook
Rob Glaser, Chairman, Real Networks
Wim Sweldens, President – Wireless Division, Alcatel Lucent
Takayuki Hoshuyama, CEO, D2 Communications
Neville Ray, SVP, T-Mobile
Bob Azzi, SVP—Networks, Sprint Nextel
Mario Queiroz, VP—Android, Google
Matt Bross, Global CTO, Huawei
We will be covering the following topics in detail:
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Emerging Devices
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Internet of Things
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Network Evolution
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Content, Media, and Entertainment
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New sources of Revenue and Business Models
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Evolution of Communication and Interaction
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Mobile Cloud Computing
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Globalization and Competition
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Mobile Anthropology
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Mobile as a platform
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The economics and politics of consumer data and privacy
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Nurturing Developer Ecosystems
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Shifts in the Ecosystem
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Mobile Health and Implications
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Mobile Retail
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Japanese Mobile Industry
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Innovations at each level of the value chain
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Mobile Social and Commerce
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Managing network growth
You can read more about what you can expect at the executive summit in the following whitepaper.
I hope to see you there.
Chetan Sharma
Chief Curator
Mobile Future Forward
