The big picture
The global mobile industry is the most vibrant and fastest growing industry. We expect the total revenue in the industry to touch approximately $1.3 Trillion in 2011 with mobile data representing 24% of the mix. Global Mobile Data revenues are expected to eclipse $300 Billion for the first time in 2011. It is also the first year in which non-messaging data revenues will make up the majority of the overall global data revenues at 53%.
We expect the total number of subscriptions to exceed 6 billion by the end of 2011. The first 1 billion took over 20 years and this last one is going to take only 15 months. The primary growth drivers are India and China which are cumulatively adding 75M new subs every quarter. Indian and China are also entangled in the race to the billion. At the end of Q2 2011, China was ahead by 50M but India is adding subscriptions at faster rate and is likely to eclipse China before Q2 2012. By then, both nations are expected to exceed 1 Billion in total subscriptions making up 31% of the global subscriptions.
In Q1 2011, US became the first major market to exceed the 50% mark in smartphone sales. The global figure stands at approximately 26%. Some operators expect 90% of their devices sales to be smartphones by the end of the year. In terms of the actual smartphone penetration, we expect the US market to eclipse the 50% mark in 2012.
China leads in the number of subs but US dominates in both total and data revenue. A number of emerging nations are now in top 10 â€“ Brazil, India, Russia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mexico while once dominant â€“ Korea, UK, Italy, Germany have dropped off or slipped in rankings.
The number of mobile operators with more than $1B in data revenues will increase to 47 in 2011. This number was only at 13 in 2005.
Japan continues to be the leader in mobile data with NTT DoCoMo, KDDI, and Softbank Japan ahead of the pack in terms of mobile data revenue and data as a % of total ARPU. In 2011, it became the first major market to have more than 50% of its mobile revenue from data services. Next, Australia and the US have made good inroads in the last two years. In fact, if we look at the overall data revenue, US is much further ahead than any nation due to the size of the market.
While India has the highest subscriber growth rate in the world right now, the revenue generating opportunity remain down right anemic compared to other major markets with average dropping down to $3.50 in overall ARPU. Even with significant subscriber base, there is going to be a general lack of opportunity in the market for the next couple of years relative to other markets.
Mobile Trends for 2011
1.Total Global Subscriptions to hit 6 Billion
â€“India and China racing to a billion a piece
2.Total Global Mobile Revenues to hit $1.3 Trillion, almost 2% of Global GDP
â€“Top 10 operators control 43% of the global mobile revenues
3.Total Global Mobile Data Revenues to eclipse $300 Billion
â€“Non-messaging data now owns 53% of the global mobile data revenues
4.Mobile Devices are now exceeding traditional computers in unit sales + revenue
â€“Majority of the device sales in the US are now smartphones. Device Replacement is shrinking
5.Mobile Broadband (4G) is being deployed at a faster rate than previous generations
â€“Over 1 Billion broadband connections by 2011
6.Global Mobile Apps revenue has shifted to off-deck
â€“The decline is directly proportional to the increase in smartphone penetration by region
7.All major markets are consolidating with the top 3 players at 85% of the market
â€“Regulators will have to be more prudent and proactive about managing competitiveness and growth
8.Mobile Data Traffic will be 95% of the global mobile traffic by 2015
â€“Many countries are facing spectrum exhaust in the next 5 years
9.Connected device segment is growing at the fastest pace
â€“Operators will have to quickly adapt their strategies to stay relevant in this segment
10.Several multi-billion dollar opportunity segments are emerging
â€“Mobile Advertising, Mobile Commerce, Mobile Wellness, Mobile Games, and Mobile Cloud Computing to name a few
11.Mobile Ecosystem has become very dynamic and unpredictable
â€“Apple, Google, Amazon, and Facebook have become the most important revenue generating mobile platforms
12. There will be more changes in the next 10 years than in the previous 100
â€“ The value chains will keep disrupting every 12-24 months by the new players and business models
13. Intellectual Property has become a key component of long-term product strategy
â€“ Top 20 control 1/3rd of the overall mobile patent pool
Apple has had the tablet space to itself. Thus far the response from the competitors has been tepid esp. on the pricing dimension. Apple has had such a mastery over the supply-chain and months ahead of the competition that by the time they figure out details, Apple already locks up the pricing advantage for the cycle. OEMs try to catch-up on the features but canâ€™t do on the margins. OEMs can grow the pie by bringing products at a better price points that helps attract different demographics to the mix. Microsoft can make good inroads into the space with its Win8 tablet release in 2012 but it will be again in a catch-up mode as the iOS ecosystem will be even more robust by then. The cheaper Android tablets will do well in the market. As expected, tablets will pretty much eliminate the need for netbooks and are starting to eat into the desktop/laptop revenue.
Nokia and RIM are under severe market scrutiny as investors and developers leave in droves. Lack of product planning and execution has left their market share in disarray. Nokiaâ€™s valuation has been cut into half while the newcomer HTC edged past the industry giant in a remarkable story of the year. Nokiaâ€™s release of N9 shows the engineering and creative design depth but a lot is riding on the first generation of Nokia Windows Phones. While the market hasnâ€™t shown much appetite for Windows phone thus far, a good family of devices might be able to slow the loss trajectory and position the combined team for the up-for-grabs 3rd spot in the ecosystem. HPâ€™s acquisition of Palm is finally bringing some new products to the market but the lack of an effective ecosystem means lack of traction in 2011. Given that the computing is shifting to mobile devices, we can expect some of the weaker desktop/laptop players will exit the industry.
Tablets are primarily being used in the WiFi mode because the primary use case is indoors and WiFi gives a better (and cheaper) user experience. Once operators start to roll out user-friendly family data plans across multiple devices, we can expect the cellular activation go higher but will still be dominated by WiFi overall.
The number of connected devices per subscriber and per family will continue to increase over the course of this decade. As the cost structure and margin profile for these devices will be different, we are likely to measure performance of various operators using margin analysis for e.g. while the ARPU for connected devices is 5-10 times lower than the postpaid subscribers, the margins are typically higher due to lower costs of sales, marketing, support, and subsidy. As such the overall impact is dilutive ARPU but higher margins. So, instead of focusing on just the ARPU, the efficiency of operators will be measured in how well they maintain average margin per user (AMPU) and average margin per connection (AMPC).
Managing the data growth
As a result of the data tsunami, there are two types of opportunities that are being created, one that take advantage of the data being generated in a way that enhances the user experience and provides value and the other in technologies that help manage the traffic data that will continue to grow exponentially.
To be able to stay ahead of the demand, significant planning needs to go in to deal with the bits and bytes that are already exploding. New technical and business solutions will be needed to manage the growth and profit from the services. Relying on only one solution wonâ€™t be an effective strategy to manage rising data demand. A holistic approach to managing data traffic is needed and our analysis shows that the cost structure can be reduced by more than half if a suite of solutions are deployed vs. a single dimensional approach and thus bringing the hockey stick curves of data cost more in line with the revenues and thus preserving the margins.
The decision making process within the operator organizations will need to be streamlined as well. Operators should also consider creating a senior post which focuses on both the cost side and the solution side so they can devise and institute a sustainable long-term policy and keep the margins healthy.
The Rule of Three is evident in all major markets. While the percentage market share might vary, on an average, the top 3 control 93% of the market in an given nation. It doesnâ€™t matter if the market is defined by â€œcontrolled regulationâ€ like in China, Korea, and Japan or if it is â€œopen marketâ€ driven in markets such as the US, UK, and India. Eventually, only top 3 operators control the majority of the market. There are niches that others occupy but they are largely irrelevant to the overall structure and functioning of the mobile market.
Markets such as US and India experienced similar competitive environment in their hyper-growth phase. For the US, this phase was in the nineties-mid-2000s while India has been experiencing the similar environment in the last 3-4 years. In both cases, at the start there are 5-6 players with no more than 25% market share but higher than 10% of the mix but gradually the market forces enable consolidation. Over a period of 18 years, US is settling into a â€œtop 3â€ operator market. Indiaâ€™s brutal price wars are going to trigger the consolidation in the next 12-24 months and will eventually settle into a structure similar to other markets.
The competitive equilibrium point in the mobile industry seems to when the market shares of the top 3 are 46%:29%:18% respectively with the remaining 7% being allocated to the niche operators. To achieve some semblance of equilibrium in the market the top operator shouldnâ€™t have more than 50% of the market share and the number three player shouldnâ€™t have less than 20%. This helps create enough balance in the market to derive maximum value for the consumer.
Mobile operators will face some hard choices in developing and protecting the role they want to play in a given region and the ecosystem at-large. The strategy they choose will have a direct impact on the expected EBITDA margins, investment required over the long-haul, how investors view them, and on the competitive landscape of the country. Given, the fast pace of globalization, new rules and trends might emerge over the course of this decade that further define â€œcommunicationsâ€ and â€œcomputingâ€ as we know it.
Apps and Services
As expected, mobile commerce and payment discussions are dominating the ecosystem. There is clearly a lot of investment and marketing dollars being spent. However, the traditional payments networks are largely intact. The new opportunities are being built on top of the existing payment platforms with convenience (Square) and offers and advertising (Google Wallet, ISIS, Groupon). Beyond payments, mobile is getting ingrained into every vertical and every facet of our lives â€“ from healthcare to education, from energy to entertainment, from communication to socialization. And we are in the early innings of figuring out the business models, ecosystem leaders, user behavior, regulatory needs, and the overall impact on society.
It is very clear that the ecosystem dynamics can change very quickly, one just can’t take the competitive and friendly forces for granted. In the past, the silos and segments were clearly defined with little overlap. However, over the course of last couple of years, players have been migrating and surfing in segments across the board – from Apple to Visa, from P&G to AT&T, from Facebook to Time Warner, from Google to Best Buy, every company wants to capture the mindshare and piece of the consumerâ€™s pocketbook. The fine line between partners and competitors can get obliterated in a quarter. Apple is competing with Cisco, Comcast is going after AT&Tâ€™s business, Visa and Verizon want to be the payment channel of choice, Amazon is gunning for Microsoftâ€™s enterprise business. One product launch, one acquisition, can change the game in an instant. And this is only the beginning.
Mobile is fundamentally reshaping how we as consumers spend from housing and healthcare to entertainment and travel, from food and drinks to communication and transportation. Mobile not only influences purchase behavior but also post purchase opinions. When the share button is literally a second away, consumers are willingly sharing more information than ever before. Mobile is thus helping close the nirvana gap for brands and advertisers who seek to connect advertising to actual transactions. The long-term battle is however for owning the context of the users. Having the best knowledge about the user to help drive the transaction is the simply the most valuable currency of commerce.
Mobile Future Forward
We will be discussing the global mobile ecosystem â€“ the challenges and the opportunities at our annual mobile thought-leadership summit â€“ Mobile Future Forward – brought to you in partnership with our terrific partners â€“ Qualcomm, Millennial Media, Real Networks, AT&T Interactive, Synchronoss Technologies, OpenMarket, Ericsson, and Openwave. Hope to see you in Seattle on Sept 12th.
Some of the distinguished guests include:
Abhi Ingle, VP â€“ Advanced Mobility, AT&T Wireless; Amit Gupta, SVP and CTO, INQMobile; Bob Gessel, VP/Head of Technology and Network Strategy, Ericsson; Braxton Woodham, Head of Engineering, AVOS; Carlos Domingo, CEO, Telefonica; Charlie Herrin, SVP – Products and Technology, Comcast; Dale Nitschke, former President, Target; Danny Bowman, President – Connected Devices, Sprint Nextel; David Messenger, EVP, Head – Online/Mobile, American Express; Erik Moreno, SVP, Fox; Gibu Thomas, SVP – Online/Mobile, Walmart; Glenn Lurie, President, AT&T Wireless; Hank Skorny, Chief Strategy Officer, Real Networks; Janet Schijns, VP, Verizon Wireless; Jason McKenzie, President, HTC-Americas; Jay Emmet, GM, OpenMarket; Jeremiah Zinn, EVP, MTV; Jerry Batt, CIO, PulteGroup; John SanGiovanni, Cofounder, Zumobi; Ken Denman, CEO, Openwave; Ken Wirth, President, Alcatel Lucent Wireless; Kris Rinne, SVP – Networks, AT&T Wireless; Mark Rolston, Chief Creative Officer, Frog Design; Matt Oommen, President, Reliance Communications; Mikael Back, VP of Products and Portfolio Management, Ericsson; Mike Mulica, President, Synchronoss Technologies; Paul Palmieri, CEO, Millennial Media; Prof. Cliff Nass, Human Computer Interaction, Stanford University; Rob Glaser, Partner, Accel; Sanjiv Ahuja, CEO, LightSquared; Stephen Bye, CTO, Sprint; Steve Mollenkopf, EVP and Group President, Qualcomm; Subba Rao, former CEO, Tata DoCoMo; Suja Chandrasekaran, CIO, Timberland; Will Hsu, Chief Product Officer, AT&T Interactive
More information at http://www.mobilefutureforward.com
Your feedback is always welcome.
Thanks and have a great 2H 2011.
We will be keeping a close eye on the trends in the wireless data sector in our blog, twitter feeds, future research reports, and articles. The next US Wireless Data Market update will be released in Aug 2011. The next Global Wireless Market update will be issued in Jan 2012.
Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this paper are our clients.
Mobile Future Forward Student Paper Contest June 15, 2011Posted by chetan in : 4G,AORTA,Connected Devices,European Wireless Market,Indian Wireless Market,Mobile Future Forward,Student Paper Contest,US Wireless Market,Wireless Value Chain,Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment
To create the future, we must first be capable of imagining it
– Gary Hamel and C.K. Prahalad, Competing for the Future, 1994
It was the most satisfying experience of my career. The contest and the Mobile Future Forward summit made me reevaluate my research and career from a fresh perspective.
– Lun Huang, Phd Student – Electrical Engineering, Illinois Institute of Technology, 2010 Mobile Future Forward Student Paper Contest Winner
Being selected as one of the winners of the contest presented me with an absolutely enriching experience. The most exciting part of the experience was the opportunity to interact and network with top industry leaders from all major mobile companies.
– Smruti Parichha, Grad Student – Dept of Computer Science and Engineering, University of California, Riverside 2010 Mobile Future Forward Student Paper Contest Winner
Mobile Future Forward is an executive summit attracting some of the most influential minds who are shaping the mobile industry. The experts and visionaries from around the globe will discuss the mobile industry 2-5 years forward, envision what the user experience and use case scenarios look like, discuss and debate the challenges and opportunities in the journey to that vision.
The best student paper contest is open to universities and research institutes around the world. Your task is to help us imagine new technologies, new experiences, new applications and services, new use cases, new business models of the mobile future. The paper can be on a specific technical or business subject within the mobile industry from mobile teleportation to fuel cells to a new enterprise collaboration tool and everything in between. The idea is to let your imagination fly without any restrictions and dream of what’s possible in the next 5-10 years. Papers can be about technical solutions to the most pressing problems, about new revenue models, about your vision of how mobile will be used in the future, etc. Paper length: 1000-1500 words.
Authors of the top two outstanding papers will get a paid trip to attend the conference and mingle with the who’s who of the wireless industry. Winners will also be eligible for more prizes. Please send in your entries by July 15th, 2011 email@example.com including a copy of your current student ID. Use of graphics and illustrations is encouraged. While an indication of interest is not required, it is appreciated. A panel of industry experts and executives will vote on the best papers. They will be ranked on originality, ambitiousness, creativity, depth, and clarity of vision. The goal of the contest is to bring out and reward the best thinking from the leaders of tomorrow.
2010 Student Paper Contest
Lun Huang of Illinois Institute of Technology and Smruti Parichha of University of California, Riverside wrote the top two winning papers respectively and were invited to meet with the senior executives in the mobile industry and attend the Mobile Future Forward Executive Summit. Our thanks to all the students who participated, the judges who helped us pick the winners, and Intel for supporting the contest. See details here.
For more Info, please contact firstname.lastname@example.org
Announcing Mobile Future Forward 2011 May 4, 2011Posted by chetan in : Mobile Ecosystem,Mobile Future,Mobile Future Forward,Student Paper Contest,US Wireless Market,Wireless Value Chain,Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment
I am really excited to announce or 2011 Mobile Future Forward. We have been working on it for a while and thanks to our wonderful partners and speakers, the program is starting to take shape. As usual, we are deeply focused on the understanding the underlying currents of the mobile ecosystem and how behavior, technologies, and business models will be morphed over time.
First of all, a big thanks to our current partners in this endeavor
We are also grateful to our fantastic thought-leaders who are eager to share and discuss the future of mobile. Current list of outstanding speakers includes:
- Abhi Ingle, VP, AT&T Wireless
- Amit Gupta, SVP and CTO, INQMobile
- Charlie Herrin, SVP – Technology, Comcast
- Danny Bowman, President, Sprint
- David Messenger, EVP, Head – Online/Mobile, American Express
- Erick Tseng, Head – Mobile, Facebook
- Erik Moreno, SVP, Fox
- Gibu Thomas, SVP – Mobile, Walmart
- Glenn Lurie, President, AT&T Wireless
- Hank Skorny, Chief Strategy Officer, Real Networks
- Jason McKenzie, President, HTC-Americas
- Jerry Batt, CIO, PulteGroup
- Ken Denman, CEO, Openwave
- Kris Rinne, SVP – Networks, AT&T Wireless
- Mike Mulica, President, Synchronoss Technologies
- Paul Palmieri, CEO, Millennial Media
- Prof. Cliff Nass, Human Computer Interaction, Stanford University
- Rob Glaser, Partner, Accel
- Sanjiv Ahuja, CEO, LightSquared
- Stephen Bye, CTO/VP – Technology & Strategy, Sprint
- Steve Elfman, President, Sprint
- Steve Mollenkopf, Group President, Qualcomm
- Suja Chandrasekaran, CIO, Timberland
- Will Hsu, Chief Product Officer, AT&T Interactive
We will keep you posted as we have more updates and news.
Mobile Future Forward Early bird registration is open now.
We are also launching our Global Student Paper Contest. If you are a student or you know of one in college, this is a great way to meet the movers and shakers of the industry. Last yearâ€™s contest was a runaway success and we are working hard to make this yearâ€™s memorable as well.
Thanks and hope to see you at the summit.
Mobile Future Forward 2010 Summit Summary September 20, 2010Posted by chetan in : 3G,4G,AORTA,BRIC,Carriers,Enterprise Mobility,European Wireless Market,Indian Wireless Market,Japan Wireless Market,Location Based Services,Mobile Advertising,Mobile Applications,Mobile Ecosystem,Mobile Event,Mobile Future,Mobile Future Forward,Mobile Gaming,Mobile Search,Mobile Traffic,Mobile Wallet,Networks,Partnership,Patents,Privacy,Smart Phones,Speaking Engagements,Student Paper Contest,US Wireless Market,Wi-Fi,WiMax,Wireless Value Chain,Worldwide Wireless Market , 1 comment so far
In proud partnership with
Amdocs, Millennial Media, Real Networks, ZTE, Clearwire, Ericsson, Openmarket, Bango, Intel, Openwave, Wavefront, and Department of Commerce
Earlier this month, Chetan Sharma Consulting hosted its first mobile thought leadership executive summit â€“ Mobile Future Forward. The sold-out event attracted leaders from the global mobile industry across the ecosystem to discuss and debate the future of mobile. This note summarizes the various discussions from the summit.
Some of the key themes discussed by the speakers and panelists were:
1. The Mobile Ecosystem is becoming more complex and competitive by the day
2. Broadband is exploding around the globe, Nationâ€™s competitiveness and prosperity is being defined by the quality and depth of Broadband
3. Mobile Device is becoming central to our existence
4. Understand the user, generational usage patterns, geographical differences and customs
5. Communication modes are evolving and morphing rapidly
6. Emerging Devices are taking the lion of share of growth in some western markets
7. Given the devices and networks, content, media, services are moving to the cloud
8. New experiences are being introduced that will impact monetization and interaction with computing and technology
9. World is becoming flatter by the day
10. Mobile as a platform is booming and several industry verticals are exploding
11. Context and Analytics are key currency for tomorrow
12. There is significant reallocation of revenues underway
13. The fight for developer mind share is getting intense
As technologists, we get too enamored with the technical details and specs but whatâ€™s most important is how can technologies be applied to make lives of every day consumers better. If a new solution or a service only benefits or thrills a few, it is destined to miss the mass market. No one understands the mass market better than Procter & Gamble, and no company in the world touches more consumers with more products than Procter & Gamble (with over 40-50 billion items per year). Technology plays a central role in how P&G thinks about engaging consumers. Last year, I had the privilege of spending some time with Steve David, our first keynote speaker. His understanding of the interplay between technology and consumer interaction and behavior is very deep and his enthusiasm for using technology to change the world infectious. Steve spent over 30 years at P&G , the final assignment as P&Gâ€™s CIO responsible for their Internet Strategy.
Steve laid out the case for Advocacy being the new measure of marketing. It has a lasting impact on the brand, the sales, and the relationship with the consumer. Companies who have a better understanding of the customer via sophisticated analytics and can quickly take the solutions and products that consumer want and need gain long-term competitive advantage. Insights from the market must be processed in real-time that can empower decision making at every level of the company. And mobile is central to this strategic shift. Mobile is being used to attack the counterfeit problem worldwide, in formulating personal recommendations as trust in brands erodes, in collecting analytics, and engaging interactions with products and services using NFC, etc. Steve ended with the old Chinese proverb, â€œWhen the wind changes direction, there are those who build walls and there are others who build wind mills.â€ What are you going to build?
Fred Devereux, President, AT&T West in his address on â€œThe Next Big Thingâ€ honed in on the emerging connected devices ecosystem and how AT&T is retooling itself to take advantage of the boom. The AT&T Emerging Devices organization is setup to behave and operate like a startup with hundreds of devices being approved in a short amount of time. The new generation of connected devices range from eReaders, PNDs, Telematics, Cameras, Camcorders, Picture Frames, Tablets, Tracking Devices, Gaming Devices, and Smart Meters. While the ARPU of these connection is low, the margins are high due to negligible overhead in operations, sales, and marketing. The importance of this category is evident from the research data we reported in our last quarterly report which indicated that there are more connected devices being added than postpaid net-adds and operators are starting to list them as separate line items in their financial statements. Fred also discussed AT&Tâ€™s plans to deploy LTE in 2011-.
Dr. Genevieve Bell, Fellow at Intel is one of the most fascinating anthropologists out there with an acute sense of technology evolution and how humans react and adapt to changes around them and how technology needs to adapt to humans and their needs in different habitats. She had some interesting stats from her research e.g. the household sizes vary significantly by countries â€“ India has only 5% of the households as single-person households while France and Germany have over one third households as single-person. Boomers will represent more than half of the population of China, Japan, and EU by 2012. These demographic shifts have significant impact on how technology is used and how media is consumed. The keynote was filled with priceless anecdotes and research items that informed and gave the technologists something to think about and that the technologists are not the proxy for rest of the population. Her book â€œTelling Techno-Cultural Talesâ€ is being published by MIT Press and is coming out next year. So, be on the lookout for that.
Mobile Advertising is in the news lately in the US. About 11 years ago, a young man named Takayuki Hoshuyama was making waves in the mobile advertising space. In 1999, he helped found D2Communications – a successful joint venture between the largest advertising firm in Japan – Dentsu and the largest and one of the most innovative operator on the planet – NTT DoCoMo. He was one of the original members of the Mobile Advertising Team for the i-mode service 11 years ago. In June, he was appointed CEO of D2C. Hoshuyama-san talked about the future of mobile advertising. Japanese mobile ad market is over $1B (though it represents only 1.7% of the overall ad spent) and with the advent of 4G/LTE the opportunities are enormous. Display outscores Search by 3:1 in ad revenues. Mobile is some embedded in Japanese culture that it is just assumed just like my good friend and coauthor Dr. Yasuhisa Nakamura, then CTO of NTT DoCoMo wrote back in 2002 in our book â€œthe wireless infrastructure will become indistinguishable from air i.e. omnipresentâ€
Hoshuyama-san also talked about the evolving role of the operators in the ecosystem with some of them focused on becoming the cloud service providers and broadcasters.
After the keynotes, we shifted to panel discussions. The first one dealt with the disruptive forces in the ecosystem with Mike Sievert, Chief Commercial Officer, Clearwire, Lixin Cheng, CEO, ZTE USA, and Subba Rao, CEO, Tata DoCoMo â€“ three leaders who are disrupting the status quo. All three agreed that the openness of Android will make it the most dominant OS in the coming years. Lixin talked about how the infrastructure business is becoming a software business with SDR design of technology standards and evolution. He also suggested that we as an ecosystem need to simplify the business models and the consumer purchasing process of bandwidth and connectivity before the connected device revolution takes significant hold. India is the fastest growing market but the ARPU levels are 1/10th of what they are in the US. Given that the market just spent over $100B on the 3G auction, the investment recovery model is unclear and the market is ripe for a big shakeout. Telenor, having lost over half a billion dollars is desperate to get out of the market. The pains of globalization are showing up in other regions as well. Mike mentioned the high average data consumption at Clearwire (currently at 7 GB/mo) â€“ clearly a precursor of whatâ€™s to come (our research shows the national average was 230 MB/mo as of Q2 2010). In terms of new technology areas, the panel was interested in products that help with spectrum efficiency, reducing the cost structure, and in improving the battery performance.
As part of the Mobile Future Forward Initiative, we had also worked on two other projects:
Â· The Mobile Future Forward Book that consisted of thought provoking essays on the future of mobile from the speakers of the summit and
Â· The global student paper contest that invited the papers form university students from the around the world
It required enormous collaboration with the folks around the globe in a very short amount of time. We are very proud of the outcome.
Mobile Future Forward Book
The second project related to a limited edition book by Chetan Sharma Consulting (published by Futuretext) exclusively for the event. Some of these summit speakers put their insights and ideas on paper that resulted in this book. We are very grateful to the authors (and their respective organizations) who carved out time from their busy schedules to pen some really insightful commentary on how they see the mobile industry evolve both holistically and in the various segments of the ecosystem. While the views are quite diverse and bring together perspectives from different angles, everyone agrees, 2010-2020 will be one heck of a time period for innovation.
The book has the following pieces:
1. The Next 10 Years – 15 Trends That Matter – Chetan Sharma
2. Sustainability in a Mobile World – Stephen David
3. Managing The Mobile Data Explosion – Wim Sweldens
4. Show Me The Money! – Brian Shepherd
5. Mobility Revolutionizing Every Product, Service, and Process – Russ McGuire
6. How Constant Connection Is Changing Our World – Ken Denman
7. 4G: The Next Big Thing – Mike Sievert
8. The Untapped Potential of Mobile Advertising and Marketing – Takayuki Hoshuyama
9. Mobile Operators are at the Center of Mobile Advertising – Krishna Vedati
10. Mobile Challenges – Three Imperatives in the Changing Game – Russ Shaw
11. Interacting With Everyday Things – Amir Mashkoori
12. In The End, Itâ€™ll All Go Through â€œBrowse and Buyâ€ – Anil Malhotra
13. The Future of Mobile: 5 Trends That Matter Most – Jay Emmet
14. Indiaâ€™s Mobile Future Forward – Subba Rao
15. Cellphone As The New Computing Platform – Sailesh Chutani
16. What 5 billion Phones Could Mean for Health Literacy – Jon Stross
17. Privacy: From Compliance To Competitive Advantage – Sarla Sharma
18. Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era – Chetan Sharma
We will be giving out some copies of the book during our Annual Predictions Survey in Dec, so be on the lookout for that participation request.
Student Paper Contest
Despite, the summer recess, we received an a very positive response from students around the globe. The top six entries went through rigorous scrutiny of our judges:
1. Pankaj Kedia, Head of Mobile Ecosystems, Intel
2. Subba Rao, CEO, Tata DoCoMo
3. Len Barlik, VP, Sprint Nextel
4. Jeff Giard, Director, Clearwire
5. Paul Palmieri, CEO, Millennial Media
6. Matt Oommen, CTO, Sprint Nextel
7. Paul Struthers, Head of Regional Marketing, Amdocs
The top two students were Lun Huang and Smruthi Pariccha and they were invited to join us for the event and receive their prizes.
The final ranking was as follows:
1. UWB Based on Multi-Band MC-CDMA and Magnetic Near-Field â€“Lun Huang, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Illinois Institute of Technology, US
2. Ubiquitous Peer Proximity Awareness in Mobile Environments â€“Smruti Parichha, Dept of Computer Science and Engineering, University of California, Riverside, US
As a mobile strategist, I get to see some of the cool technologies before they hit the market. For the demo this year, we selected Microvisionâ€™s cool projection technology where you can interact with the projected screen in thin air by waving hands. Yes, you got it. You had to be there to see it. It was shown for the first time to the general public and we are thankful to Selvan Vishwanathan and Andrew Rosen, the two engineers (and their colleagues) behind this exciting emerging technology that will expand the horizons of mobile interactivity and media engagement.
The afternoon sessions started delving into specific topics and details that were touched upon at the high level during the morning sessions. Each of the panels had an absolutely stellar cast who are deeply engaged in defining the mobile ecosystem right now.
Network and Mobile Data Evolution 2010-2015
Wim Sweldens, President – Wireless Division, Alcatel-Lucent,
Neville Ray, Chief Network Officer, T-Mobile,
Bob Azzi, Senior Vice President, Sprint,
Matt Bross, CTO and Vice Chairman, Huawei
Sean Cai, Vice President – Advanced Wireless Technology, ZTE,
Ken Denman, CEO, Openwave (moderator)
There is a big debate about network evolution – how fast does LTE need to come to the market? Will LTE be enough to help with the data tsunami. The consensus was a resounding No but LTE brings in some key capabilities like an all-IP network that enables new capabilities for multimedia applications and services, lowers the per bit cost, and reduces latency for superior user experience. Of course, the RAN is only part of the story, the backhaul needs to get upgraded as well to handle the load. The panel also emphasized simplicity in services without making things burdensome for the consumer with new technology. The other area of concern is of course the spectrum. Will there be ever enough spectrum? The issue is more acute for some operators. Finally, the focus need not to be on the bandwidth or the latency, from a userâ€™s point of view, it is always about the services and things they can do with more bandwidth and lower latency.
Future of Content, Engagement, and Monetization
Louis Gump, Vice President – Mobile, CNN,
Omar Javaid, Vice President, Converged Media, Motorola (moderator),
Paul Palmieri, CEO, Millennial Media,
Rob Glaser, Chairman, Real Networks and Partner, Accel
Superphones and smartphones have changed the landscape for content, engagement and monetization. Superphones are most open and it is reflected in the results, more engagement and higher app usage. Apple/Android have also put US back in the leadership role when it comes to devices. CNN has seen high degree of non duplicated reach and reach is king when it comes to mobile advertising. The ad platforms are going into the next stage of evolution with more multimedia, better monetization opportunities, and higher value for the consumer. For content providers, ads canâ€™t be the only strategy to generate revenue, subscriptions and/or micro transactions need to be part of the equation as well.
The Balance of Privacy and Monetization from Consumer Data
Krishna Vedati, Senior Vice President, AT&T Interactive,
Chris Murphy, Head of Digital Strategy, adidas
Dr. Nitin Shah, CEO, Feeva,
John Giere, Senior Vice President, Openwave,
Jeremy Lockhorn, Vice President – Emerging Media, Razorfish (moderator)
It is a complex issue and our insightful panel talked through the intricacies and the balance of monetizing using consumer data while meeting userâ€™s expectations on privacy. One has to give something of value to the consumer before they trade up. Advertisers like adidas want to move from 1-2-many to 1-2-1 relationship with the consumer that increases the volume and quality of the transactions. The valuable variables to track are location, propensity to buy, past actions, traffic inputs, etc. Discovery and recommendations also become important part of the whole process. Of course, regulators are eager to jump in as well. It will be one of the key issues defining the industry landscape over the next 5 years.
mHealth – The Impact on Society and Global Health
Dr. Sailesh Chutani, CEO, Mobisante (moderator)
Jon Stross, General Manager and VP, Babycenter.com
Tim Wood, Director, Grameen Foundation
Greg Brandenberg, CEO, Columbia Basin Health Association
Dr. Suzanne Clough, Chief Medical Officer, Welldoc
mHealth is one of those areas which has been talked about for a long time and where mobile is starting to have a truly disruptive run at the industry. While the regulations and the dinosaur health care industry have been slow to adapt, there are a number of innovative companies like Welldoc, Babycenter.com, Mobisante, and others who are forcing rethink and change in the status quo. Gregâ€™s CBHA is forced to think differently and has looked to technology to solve their challenges. Serving in the rural areas of WA state, his team has been testing out new solutions such as cell phone based ultrasound system from Mobisante that is 1/10th the cost of what GE sells for. It is much more portable and flexible and works well with the field work force. Timâ€™s Grameen Foundation is similarly leading the charge in nations like Ghana where mobile has been used to solve real-life health issues. Jonâ€™s Babycenter has been expanding in other regions and increasing revenues at the same time. However, the test results and trials can still take inordinate amount of time (it was 3 years for one of the trials). The opportunity is immense but regulators, healthcare industry, pharma giants, and the rest are starting to come to grips with the role that mobile can play in transforming lives and P&Ls.
Mobile Cloud Computing – At the Tipping Point?
Hank Skorny, Senior Vice President – Media Cloud Computing, Real Networks
Brian Shepherd, President – Mobile Services and Marketing, Amdocs
Marianne Marck, Senior Vice President, BlueNile
Mike Wolf, Vice President – Research, GigaOM (moderator)
Erez Yarkoni, Chief Information Officer, T-Mobile
Cloud is changing IT and cloud is going to change mobile media. It helps take out some of the complexities of media consumption, management, and sharing for the consumers and provides a lower cost structures for the media companies. There are opportunities for operators to provide cloud based services at many levels – storage, media, billing, bandwidth, profile, analytics, network intelligence and so on and so forth. Some are easier to implement while others requires more investment and change in DNA. From a developerâ€™s perspective, cloud based services will be ideal to increase reach but we are not there yet as the capabilities of the browser are not comparable to the native environment on platforms like iOS and Android. Better user experience is essential and developers wonâ€™t compromise.
Evolution of Communication and Social Interaction
Mario Queiroz, Vice President – Product Management, Google
David Weiden, General Partner, Khosla Ventures
Robin Schofeld, Principal, Booz&Co (moderator)
Erick Tseng, Head of Mobile, Facebook
Pankaj Kedia, Head of Mobile Ecosystems, Intel
The panel delved into how the communication ecosystems might evolve. While there is discussion about open and closed (too much at times), it is about executing on a strategy that touches the most number of consumers. The closed gardens of Apple is quite dominating and so is the evolving Android ecosystem which is relatively open. At the end of the day, developers are looking to make a buck with the least amount of resources and reach the most of amount of users. Cloud based communications services are about to change the landscape in a big way. Google and Facebook both have had good successes and both suggested that we are just getting started and more innovation is going to come in the form of personalization and social interaction. Operators while ceding some of the communication territory can still have a viable broadband business. As far as social on mobile is concerned, we are still in the early days with lots of opportunities to enhance and engage.
Internet of Things – Emerging Ecosystems
Amir Mashkoori, CEO, Kovio
Danny Bowman, President – Integrated Solutions Group, Sprint
Mark Selby, Vice President – Industry Collaboration, Nokia
Chetan Sharma, President, Chetan Sharma Consulting (moderator)
Abhi Ingle, Vice President – Industry & Mobility Application Solutions, AT&T
Peter Koo, Vice President, Ericsson
The fact that there are more mobile phones than toothbrush brings home the point of the pervasiveness of mobile around the globe. The panel gave several examples of how â€œconnectednessâ€ is spreading across other electronic devices as well e.g. in Netherlands, 30K home care workers are equipped with NFC enabled devices which help interact with the patients (opens the door as well) without the need for paperwork, the records, helps with navigation. Overall result – happier workers, higher efficiency, and reduced carbon emission. The mobility for â€œconnected devicesâ€ will try to leverage all RF radios as needed – 3G, 4G, Bluetooth, WiFi, Zigby, etc. Digital signage is emerging as a new area for consumer interaction and information. Some of the industries are on the verge of significant change – e.g. insurance where car insurance rates are given based on driving habits learned via telemetry vs. the old actuary table based rating systems. NFC is also enabling a lot of commerce opportunities by bringing the online world together with the physical world. However, as the ecosystem evolves, we need to also worry about QoS, security, and reliability concerns that various vertical industries have. Of course, the net-neutrality debate impacts the evolution. There are several scenarios where prioritization of data traffic is essential in emergency situations (ambulance transmission, fire fighting, etc.).
At the Intersection of Gaming, Social, and Commerce
Tim Chang, Partner, NVP (moderator)
Prashant Fuloria, Director – Facebook Credits, Facebook
David Marcus, CEO, Zong
Andrew Lacy, Senior Vice President, Disney Games
Alex Tokman, CEO, Microvision
Micro transactions is the new currency that scales up to billions of dollars in gaming and social networking. Free drives interest and the core 2-5% drive the revenues. If you ask for payment up front, virality component fizzles and the longevity declines. iTunes has been the gold standard for payments, carrier billing is starting to shape up and it will benefit the developers. HTML5+ in theory makes sense and is nice enhancement but the app experience is compelling for users. Discovery continues to be the sore spot and the burning opportunity. Whichever platform and mode of operation helps developers make more money, thatâ€™s where the momentum will shift. Today it is the iPhone but rival models are starting to pop up.
Our heartfelt thanks to everyone who helped in making Mobile Future Forward successful especially the sponsors (Amdocs, Millennial Media, Real Networks, ZTE, Clearwire, Ericsson, OpenMarket, Bango, Intel, Openwave, Wavefront, and Department of Commerce), participants, the moderators, and the speakers. Thanks to Caroline Lewko and David Smith for taking good notes. Planning for Mobile Future Forward 2011 is underway. Until then, best wishes and good luck in your pursuits, and we hope to see you next year. Thank You.
Mobile Future Forward – Student Paper Contest Results Announced August 15, 2010Posted by chetan in : 3G,4G,AORTA,ARPU,Mobile Applications,Mobile Content,Mobile Ecosystem,Mobile Event,Mobile Future,Mobile Future Forward,Smart Phones,Speaking Engagements,Student Paper Contest,US Wireless Market,VoIP,Wi-Fi,Wireless Value Chain,Worldwide Wireless Market , 1 comment so far
On behalf of the Mobile Future Forward team, Intel â€“ the contest sponsors, and the esteem panel of Judges from the mobile industry, I would like to thank all the students who participated in our inaugural â€œStudent Paper Contest.â€ Despite the summer recess and only one month of preparation time, we got an overwhelmingly positive response from students in 9 different countries across Asia, Europe, and North America.
We very much appreciate the time and energy the students put in producing some exceptional papers that are indicative of their potential in the mobile space in the coming days.
We went through a rigorous selection process and our elite jury panel helped us pick and rank the top 6 papers. The contest judges were:
1. Pankaj Kedia, Head of Mobile Ecosystems, Intel
2. Subba Rao, CEO, Tata DoCoMo
3. Len Barlik, VP, Sprint Nextel
4. Jeff Giard, Director, Clearwire
5. Paul Palmieri, CEO, Millennial Media
6. Matt Oommen, CTO, Sprint Nextel
7. Paul Struthers, Head of Regional Marketing, Amdocs
The final ranking of the papers was as follows:
1. UWB Based on Multi-Band MC-CDMA and Magnetic Near-Field â€“ Lun Huang, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Illinois Institute of Technology, US
2. Ubiquitous Peer Proximity Awareness in Mobile Environments â€“ Smruti Parichha, Dept of Computer Science and Engineering, University of California, Riverside, US
3. Ubiquitous Augmented Reality â€“ Anna Maria Ksiezopolska, Institute of System Level Integration â€“ iSLI, University of Edinburgh, UK
4. Mobile Communications & Accessibility for Blind Users â€“ M Kazi M. Yakoob, Chan Naseeb, and Hafiz Qasim, Politecnico di Milano, Italy
5. Mobile Future â€“ Free CPU Everywhere â€“ Ren C. Luo and CJ Chi, Intelligent Robot and Automation Lab, EE Dept, National Taiwan University, Taiwan
6. Serving the Poor Farmers by Mobile Agricultural Information: Quality of Service Assessment to Empower Rural Bangladesh â€“ Mohammed Upal, Graduate School of Management, International University of Japan, Japan
Lun Huang and Smruti Parichha are being invited to meet with the senior executives in the mobile industry and attend the Mobile Future Forward conference. Rest of the authors in the top 6 will receive a book on mobile computing.
Abstracts of the winning papers are:
UWB Based on Multi-Band MC-CDMA and Magnetic Near-Field â€“ Lun Huang, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Illinois Institute of Technology, US
Since the FCC opened up the spectrum for Ultra Wide Band (UWB) operation in the 3.1 to 10.6 GHz range, several standards have been proposed to realize moderate and high rate short-range communication systems. Under the WiMedia and Wireless Personal Area Networks (WPANs) umbrella , industry incorporated UWB as the technology to achieve high data rates up to 480Mbps for certain applications, such as wireless USB v2.0 and Laptop to HDTV audio/video extenders. In this paper, a novel UWB based on Affine Orthogonal Transform MC-CDMA and Magnetic near-field is introduced. The proposed new scheme is capable of improving the spectrum and power efficiency while provide good wireless link quality.
Ubiquitous Peer Proximity Awareness in Mobile Environments â€“ Smruti Parichha, Dept of Computer Science and Engineering, University of California, Riverside, US
This paper proposes the idea of enabling all WiFi capable consumer devices with the knowledge of the locations of peer devices in their network neighborhood. We will use the term â€œpeer-proximity awarenessâ€ to describe the ability to discover locations of peers and update this knowledge with changes in the network neighborhood. GPS functionality enables a device to locate its own coordinates in outdoor environments. Peer-proximity awareness is meant to provide knowledge of the location of peer devices with respect to itself in indoor environments, where mobile wireless devices are extensively used, but GPS capability is of little help. The accuracy in peer-proximity awareness is intended to be a few meters, or even sub-meter level, depending on the application. We will focus on extremely interesting applications that can leverage peer proximity awareness and show that it has great potential in the future of the mobile market.
Congrats to the winners and everyone who contributed to the process.
Thanks to all the students and their academic institutions for participating. I am sure our paths will cross again.
Best wishes for their successful academic and professional careers.