2010 Mobile Industry Predictions Survey January 3, 2010
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2010 Mobile Industry Predictions Survey
http://www.chetansharma.com/MobilePredictions2010.htm
Mobile Predictions Survey (pdf)
Mobile Predictions Survey (ppt)
First things first. From all of us at Chetan Sharma Consulting, we wish you and yours a very happy, healthy, and prosperous 2010. Thanks to all who participated in our 2010 Mobile Predictions Annual Survey. We have found it is the best way to think about the trends coming our way.
Before we dive into the survey results, let’s do a quick wrap-up of the year that was. Well, since we just completed one heck of a mobile decade, let’s do a quick jog down the memory lane.
The Last Decade: 2000-2009
Each new decade brings its own consumer and technology trends. During the 2000s mobile cemented its place in the global society fabric, the use of mobility became addictive and pervasive, to be without mobile seemed a curse and innovation blossomed and took user expectations to new heights.
From a pure statistical point of view, the global mobile subscription penetration grew from 12% in 2000 to approximately 68% in 2009 - phenomenal by any measure. The overall revenues grew over 400%, the data revenue grew 32,600% and the total subscriptions grew 563%. NTT DoCoMo paved the way with the i-mode launch in 1999 and they were the operator to emulate throughout the last decade, leading every single year in data revenues, in new application and service revenue sources, and in innovation and risk taking. They tried to export the success to other regions with little reward but DoCoMo clearly led the industry in taking mobile devices where they have never gone before.
China and India were late to the party but during the second half of the decade caught up with the western world and eventually surpassed all nations becoming number one and two nations by subscriptions respectively. In 2006, China Mobile became the most valuable operator passing Vodafone.
Mobile devices went significant transformation as well. From the early Bluetooth, camera, and music phones to the iPhones, the Storms, and the Androids, the industry was transformed by the introduction of Apple’s iPhone in 2007. While Bluetooth, sleek designs, camera phone defined the first half of the decade, the second half was all about the applications and the mobile web. While Nokia dominated the entire decade in terms of the sales and profits, having missed the touch revolution, it leaves the decade a bit battered and a bit behind playing catch-up to the newcomers who profoundly disturbed the status quo.
Razr carried Motorola through 2006 when its global share peaked but was left to reinvent itself during the second half. It seems to have redeemed itself with the successful launch of Droid and upcoming Android devices. While many in the industry predicted RIM’s demise, the company has only gotten stronger and is looking good for the 2010s. The emergence of Samsung and LG as strong players in the mobile ecosystem was also a big story of the decade with Samsung increasing its share by 380% and LG by 575% becoming the number 2 and 3 players respectively.
While Microsoft’s Windows Mobile had an early start and the enterprise market share, it lost its way through several missteps and is on dialysis as we enter the new decade. One shouldn’t count WM out though but there is a lot of work to be done before it can capture the imagination of the ecosystem which has been sequestered away by iPhone and Android.
While many new application areas were introduced during 2000s, none was able to displace SMS as the leading app category by usage and revenues. However, it’s relative share has started to come down especially in North America and Western Europe.
As data usage grew, so did the data traffic bringing many data networks to their knees. We expect the data traffic consumption to only accelerate. Many people are underestimating the growth rates (as they did previously) and the strain the increase in consumption will put on the unprepared networks. Projector phones will take media consumption to a new level. Data management is going to be big business in the 2010s.
Overall, the mobile industry became a trillion dollar industry in 2008 and the data revenues are increasing in almost all regions. Voice is being commoditized at fast pace and that has put the traditional economics and ecosystem wealth distribution in topsy-turvy.
The US market also experienced tremendous growth with mobile data service revenues climbing 21,327% and becoming a mainstay in the mobile economy. In 2008 it crossed Japan as the most valuable mobile data market. US was late in adopting SMS but caught fire once American Idol started using it and even played a good role in the 2008 Presidential election in showcasing the power of mobile. Verizon started the decade being the number one operator and after trading places with Cingular and ATT grabbed the title back in 2009 (after the Alltel acquisition) to become the most dominant carrier in North America. Many smaller players competed by being innovative with Cincinnati Bell launching the fist UMA device, Sprint the first mobile eReader, and TMO launched the hotspot business which has now become an essential component of an operator strategy going forward.
Mobile is also replacing landline at a much faster pace than expected and within the first half of the new decade, we will have majority of the users using mobile vs. landline. Just like the last decade, this one starts with a new standard deployment of LTE that will keep operators and vendors busy throughout the decade. However, a lot of the developing markets will still be deploying 3G during the first half of the decade.
Infrastructure providers suffered the most in the decade bookended by the two recessions. Consolidation of giants (Alcatel Lucent, Nokia Siemens), bankruptcies of the famous (Nortel), and uprising of the upstarts (Huawei) pretty much defined the decade for the segment. Ericsson and Huawei enter the new decade from a strong position and looking to dominate the global markets.
The last decade was also marked by some prominent IP battles such as RIM vs. NTP, Qualcomm vs. Broadcom, Sony Ericsson vs. Samsung, Upaid vs. Satyam etc. (disclaimer: we worked on some of these cases and testified as an expert)
Here is our “subjective” list of movers and shakers of the last decade
2000-2009
2010-2019
Operator of the Decade
NTT DoCoMo
DCM led the way in almost all new category of apps and services. Its data service revenue was highest in each of the last 10 years
DCM will continue to lead along with KDDI and SKT. However, it might be the carriers with tremendous scale who will have the calling cards in the new decade. Watch for China Mobile, Vodafone/Verizon, Telefonica, Orange, Bharti, Unicom, Singtel
OEM of the Decade
Nokia
Nokia dominated in sales and revenues in each of the 10 years and while the last couple of years took some shine off its glorious past, the company nevertheless came out ahead
RIM, Apple, Nokia, Samsung
Smartphone OEM of the Decade
Apple
Smartphones as we know them were introduced by RIM but Apple defined the category and the subsequent ecosystem
This space will be very competitive with Apple still the gold standard to beat
Infrastructure Provider of the Decade
Ericsson
Its prime rivals struggled to stay afloat while Ericsson grabbed most of the revenues from infrastructure contracts and is very well positioned for the next decade
Ericsson is joined by Huawei as the two top infrastructure provider with Huawei giving tough competition for LTE contracts. ZTE and other Chinese infrastructure providers will also replace some of the incumbents
Nation that led in mobile data
Japan
This is a no brainer. Japan led with Korea a close second. Finland, UK also impressed
US, China, and India are well positioned to make an impression but most likely during the second half. Japan will still be a major player
Device of the decade
iPhone followed by Razr
iPhone impressed with form and function while Razr with its global sales making it a top selling device of all times
The field might get more crowded as all OEMs focusing on the smartphone category. However, OEMs who also focus on the 90% of the market w/o smartphones might win the top prize
The year 2009
Apple continued to dominate the headlines for the third straight year - whether it was the launch of 3GS or the upcoming introduction of the fabled tablet. Google too kept the ecosystem active. It has executed on its mobile strategy with brilliant acumen though causing significant consternation amongst its partners who it needs to be successful. It has been often misunderstood by competitors, regulators, and partners. Often, they have focused on Google’s tactics vs. its strategy. Look for these two players to be very aggressive as they try to fight for the mantle and the mindshare.
While Nokia leads the OEM space by a good distance, its momentum in the smartphone space left a lot of question marks. Motorola made a credible comeback with Cliq and Droid. Samsung and LG continued to innovate and expanded on their share of shipments and revenues.
India outpaced China in net-adds and crossed 500M though it is still quite behind China’s 750M. The M&A and the consolidation process became active in Asia with several of the big regional operators looking to flex muscles in the international markets. After several delays, China started deploying 3G while India again fumbled and postponed its 3G auction.
US mobile data market continued its pace in 2009 with each of the four quarters exceeding $10B in data service revenues. The gap between the top two operators and the rest grew to be the biggest in the decade and the industry weathered the recession with ease. There was a clear shift towards prepaid especially for Sprint, T-Mobile, and the tier 2/3 operators.
2009 was also defined by significant activity on the application front. With Facebook eclipsing 100M subscribers and Appstore exceeding 2.5B downloads, sky is the limit.
The year also saw an unprecedented growth in mobile data consumption. As we had predicted, for some of the networks, the growth proved to be a double-edged sword. Many in the industry are banking on LTE to help relieve the pain but will be surprised that depending solely on the upgrade strategy will not be enough. Declaring spectrum as a looming crisis, FCC also started tinkering with the mobile industry and the broadband plan.
Japan exceeded 90% in 3G penetration while US subscriptions ventured into the 90% territory. Most of western Europe is way past 130%.
All in all, a terrific year considering that we went through one of the worst recessions in a generation. As we bid goodbye to the last decade, Nexus One and iTablet only serve to whet our appetite of what’s to come.
On a personal note, we started our consulting practice this last decade as we were coming out of the bubble recession and have been fortunate to work with some of the brightest brains and companies in the global ecosystem. We also had a chance to work on some key initiatives that impacted the ecosystem in profound ways. Many thanks to our clients, colleagues, friends, and readers. We will be involved with many new initiatives over the next decade and are looking forward to the conversations through the research notes, books, speeches, panels, whitepapers, blog posts, facebook and twitter feeds, and more.
Thanks and Happy New Year. May the upcoming decade leave you happier, healthier, and more successful than the previous one.
As we eluded to earlier, 2010 will be a pretty eventful year from several perspectives: business models, user experience and expectations, ecosystem posturing, disruption, and friction. How are things going to shape up? What will be hot and what will fade into oblivion? How will competition shape up the new sub-segments?
We put some of the questions to our colleagues in the industry. We were able to glean some valuable insights from their choices and comments. This survey is different from some of the others in the sense that it includes industry movers and shakers participation. Executives and insiders (n=150) from leading mobile companies across the value chain and around the world opined to help us see what 2010 might bring.
11 names were randomly drawn for 3 special prizes. The winners are:
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Claire Boonstra, Cofounder, Layar- INQMobile 3G Chat device
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Michael Libes, CTO, GroundTruth - Open Mobile Book
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Henri Moissinac, Head of Mobile, Facebook - Open Mobile Book
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Subba Rao, CEO, TataDoCoMo - Open Mobile Book
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Saumil Gandhi, Product Manager, Microsoft - Open Mobile Book
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Sarah Reedy, Senior Editor, Connected Planet - Open Mobile Book
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Mike Vanderwoude, VP & GM, Cincinnati Bell Wireless - 2010 Mobile Almanac
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Pinney Colton, VP, GfK - 2010 Mobile Almanac
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Tim Chang, Principal, Norwest Ventures - 2010 Mobile Almanac
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Laura Marriott, President - 2010 Mobile Almanac
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Asha Vellaikal, Director, Orange - 2010 Mobile Almanac
Thanks to INQMobile and my friend Ajit Jaokar for contributing the prize gifts.
Despite conventional wisdom, what will not happen in 2010?
There were many. Sampling - Verizon iPhone, Microsoft Phone, Sprint will not be bought, Femtocells won’t gain traction, RCS will not happen, Google will not enter handset market directly, iPhone won’t lose steam, Android won’t bring coherence, NFC won’t take off, WiMAX won’t disappear, Nokia won’t bounce back, Palm won’t die, “Year of Mobile” noise won’t subside, carriers won’t be delegated as dumb-pipes.
It is hard to cover the mobile industry in 20 questions. As pointed out by our panelists, there are a number of other issues and opportunities that will help shape our ecosystem - monetization of social networks, augmented reality, the fight for mobile advertising dollars, continued impact of globalization, security and privacy, NFC, IMS, VoIP, enterprise apps beyond email, battery improvements, new interaction modalities, health risks of RF radiation, Mobile 3.0, LTE, single purpose devices, 3G in India, Bada, app vs web, developer turmoil, featurephones, smart grids, M2M, Chrome, etc.
However, be rest assured, we will be tracking these and much more throughout the year and sharing them through various channels.
Thanks again to everyone who contributed. We will be calling on you again next year. We are clearly living in "interesting times" with never a dull moment in our dynamic industry. It has been a terrific year for us here at Chetan Sharma Consulting and we are looking forward to the next decade and seeing many of you along the way.
We hope you enjoyed gaining from the collective wisdom. Your feedback is always welcome.
Be well, Do Cool Work, Stay in touch.
Thanks.
With warm wishes,
Chetan Sharma
Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this note are our clients.
Now onto the 2010 Mobile Industry Predictions Survey Results
The panel comprised of movers and shakers from around the world
What will be the biggest stories of 2010?
Jan seems to be the Google Phone vs. Apple Tablet matchup. Our panel though voted for the continued growth in mobile data as the top story.
Have we recovered from the recession? (Please select one)
Majority thought we are out of it though some might still feel the pinch
Who will be the most open player in the mobile ecosystem in 2010? (Please select one)
Google has done a great job at maintaining its image as THE open leader
Will Android handset sales exceed iPhone’s in 2010? (Please select one)
Despite Androids coming in droves, iPhone will still be the king of the hill
When will we see tiered pricing plans for smartphones in the US from tier 1 operators? (Please select one)
There are indications that this might happen sooner rather than later
What will happen to the mobile prepaid subscriber base in the US? (Please select one)
Prepaid made a strong comeback in 2009 and a good majority thought that the trend is likely to continue
By how much will the mobile advertising ad-spend increase in 2010? (Please select one)
Mobile Advertising was the only advertising segment with positive growth last year so it is no surprise that folks expect it to more than double this year
What will be the impact of the FCC’s national broadband plan on the mobile industry in 2010? (Please select one)
Not much is expected from the various rulings that might come this year with most expecting the courts to have the final word.
Who will be the mobile comeback story of 2010?
Having bet its future on Android, Motorola was voted as the comeback kid of 2010
What will be the impact of Google Phone?
It’s pretty clear, Google and Apple are duking it out for the developer mindshare. Google wins in either case.
Which areas will feel the most impact from FCC?
Net neutrality is the area where they will have the most impact
Which solutions will gain the most traction for managing mobile data broadband consumption?
While only a holistic approach can provide complete relief, tiered mobile data pricing might have the most impact
When will the carrier-branded appstores lose steam? (Please select one)
Most expect carrier-branded appstores to be a thing of the past in 2010
What will help mobile cloud computing gain traction in 2010?
Mobile cloud computing is gaining steam and the reason is storage and media
What will be the most successful non-mobile-phone category in 2010? (Please select one)
Netbooks seem to be the strongest category followed by eReaders, Tablet, and M2M
What will be the breakthrough category in mobile in 2010? (Please select one)
Mobile Advertising and Mobile Payments share the top honors
By the end of 2010, which will have more subscribers? (Please select one)
LTE might have the momentum but WiMAX has the subscribers
How will Netbooks do through the operator channel? (Please select one)
No major impact from the operator channel
Which standards will gain traction?
No major impact from the standards
What mode of mobile payments will get any traction in North America and Western Europe in 2010?
The category will expand in different ways with more items being charged on the operator bill
US Wireless Data Market Update - Q2 2009 August 8, 2009
Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, ARPU, BRIC, CTIA, Carriers, Enterprise Mobility, European Wireless Market, Indian Wireless Market, Japan Wireless Market, Location Based Services, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Search, Mobile Usability, Patent Strategies, Patent Strategy, Smart Phones, Speaking Engagements, Strategy, US Wireless Market, Unified Messaging, Usability, WiMax, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 4 commentsUS Wireless Data Market Update - Q2 2009
Executive Summary
The US wireless data market grew 7% Q/Q and 30% Y/Y to exceed $10.6B in mobile data service revenues and thus exceeded $10B for the second straight quarter. As we mentioned in our Q1 2009 research note, given the strong growth in data revenues shown by the top carriers and the increase in service revenues overall, the worst is over for the US mobile industry. In summary, the recession has been all but a tiny blip in its growth trend and the US mobile market has weathered the downward spiral in economy better than its counterparts in other developed nations. Of course, recession doesn’t treat all players equally, so, some have had a negative impact and will need more resources and effective strategies to claw back to the their previous market position.
The US subscription penetration was approximately 90.4% at the end of Q209. The current rate of net-adds (subscription) is approximately 3 every second (compared to a net gain in population of one person every 10 seconds). While the flailing economy hit certain segments of the wireless ecosystem hard esp. the infrastructure and handset segments, consumers haven’t really pulled back on the mobile data overall spending. Additionally, the CAPEX spending will stay strong in 2009 given the activity around 3G/4G deployments and trials. As expected, there was an increase of prepaid subscribers which dropped the overall revenues for some of the carriers.
As we mentioned in our last two research notes that this time around, the fate of the US mobile industry is more closely tied to the overall economy compared to the previous recessions. As the consumer sentiment improved over the last 3-4 months along with better than expected Q1-2 2009 earnings from corporations, the mobile industry is back on track. While the structural flaws in various industry segments remain, and the economy is a crisis away from the double dip, the outlook for the remainder of 2009 remains bright and we are expecting the overall data revenues to now increase by 32% compared to 2008 with a record-setting Q4.
US Wireless Industry in Recession - The light at the end of the tunnel is indeed not from the oncoming train
Q2 2009 reported a much better 1% decline (compared to 6.4% in Q1). On an yearly basis, the GDP is expected to change by 3.2% for 2009 and the service revenues are expected to account for 1.13% of the US economy by year-end.
As mentioned in the previous reports, while in the past, the recession hardly impacted the wireless industry, this time around; it is going to be more tied to the recession. In the past couple of months, the consumer sentiment has improved and the Q109 earnings have been better than expected. While there are still many structural flaws in the financial and housing industries and the unemployment is at a 25 year high of 9.4% (though it dropped in July from 9.5% in June), consumers are feeling better about the economy and their own prospects in it.
So, what does this mean? Well, the markets can still be volatile, but overall the market seems to be feeling better about the economy than it was in February. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index though retreated from June is at a healthy 46.6.
Given that consumer sentiment is improving, it is clear that the US mobile data market is all but back from the recession. While some segments within the mobile industry might be suffering, there has been an increase in spending overall.
What to expect in the coming months?
We noted in our Q3 2008 note that we will get a better picture of the impact of the recession on the wireless industry in Q109 as it was the first full quarter after the seasonal holiday quarter. There are two micro trends that are clear. First, as expected, due to the high unemployment, the data card segment took a hit. It is starting to recover in due course as more of the workforce comes back over in the next 18 months.
Also, as expected, there was a shift from postpaid to prepaid in some user segments. For example, for T-Mobile, prepaid constituted 82% of the net-adds in Q209 up from 61% in Q109 and 21% in Q208. It is not clear if the good times will bring back the prepaid subscribers to the postpaid realm or like the consumers who are canceling their landline connections and moving to mobile, these customers will get used to savings and the prepaid lifestyle. The fight for the low-end customer is also having an impact on the traditional prepaid players and the price pressure is reducing their margins.
It is quite likely that 50-60% of such consumers don’t go back to postpaid thus permanently lowering the ARPU base for such customers and carriers who have experienced more postpaid to prepaid shift will have to make up for the lost revenues elsewhere.
The landline replacement by Mobile trend continued now reaching almost 24% by Q209. Messaging continues to grow. The messaging volume was up 15% and messaging revenue was up 11% QoQ. The data access (excluding data card) including flat rate data plan subscriptions have also show significant strength lately. In addition to smartphones, we are also seeing increased mobile data activity amongst feature phone users. With its expanding 3G network, T-Mobile like its peers has started to benefit from smartphone penetration reaching to 6% of its subscriber base. Overall, the US market will exceed 25% penetration of smartphones in Q3 2009.
The increased use of smartphones and datacards is putting a pressure on carrier networks and accelerating their strategies to deploy LTE/WiMAX. We estimate that by end of 2009, the US mobile data traffic is likely to exceed 400 petabytes, up 193% from 2008. To truly tackle the problem head-on, operators will need to adopt a multi-pronged strategy to manage their traffic more effectively. We discuss mobile data traffic in much more detail in our paper “Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era.” (I will be giving keynotes on the subject at the Mobile Innovation Week in Sept and at the ISACA meeting in Oct)
The positive factors are helping negate the negative factors and given the strength of 3G and smartphone adoption, the increase in activity on the appstores front, and in general, a better awareness of mobile data services and applications amongst consumers, any decline due to the loss of data card revenue and postpaid transition to prepaid accounts has been taken care off. In particular, Verizon and AT&T have done really well. Smartphones remain a bright spot, which in turn has a direct positive impact on the data revenues. Even with the decline in handset sales, smartphone segment will continue to increase in 2009 accounting for almost 30% of the overall device shipments.
There is also a concerted effort underway to move beyond the traditional subscriptions and expand the mobile universe to wireless-enable other consumer devices (What did your refrigerator say to your microwave while you were gone?).
Coming back to the 2009 forecasts, we are raising our estimates for the mobile data service revenues to $45B for the year. We will be keeping a very close eye on the micro- and macro-trends and reporting on the market on a regular basis in various private and public settings.
Against this backdrop, the analysis of the Q209 US wireless data market is:
Service Revenues (Slides 11-12, 17-18)
- The US Wireless data service revenues grew 7% Q/Q to $10.6B in Q209. Compared to Q208, the data service revenues grew 30%.
- Verizon and AT&T accounted for 90% of the increase in data revenues in Q2 2009.
- The US mobile data service revenues crossed $10B for the second straight quarter and stays ahead of Japan and China by a distance.
- Verizon and AT&T experienced the most growth with over 8% increase Q/Q followed by T-Mobile at 6%.
- Verizon’s data revenues are now almost $4B/quarter only inches behind the global leader of over 10 years NTT DoCoMo.
- AT&T and Verizon now account for 69% of the market data services revenues and 61% of the subscriber base. Sprint had the fifth consecutive quarter of data revenue growth.
- The average industry percentage contribution of data to overall ARPU is now $27%. US market is likely to touch the 30% mark in 2009.
- The top four US carriers are now a permanent fixture in the top 10 global operators by mobile data service revenues occupying #3, #4, #6, and #8 spot respectively. Apart from NTT DoCoMo and China Mobile, Verizon Wireless and AT&T are the only two other operators generating more than $3B in quarterly mobile data service revenues.
ARPU (Slides 13-15)
- Overall ARPU decreased by $0.23 thus reversing the trend of the last three quarters. Average voice ARPU declined 13-15by $0.45 while average data ARPU grew by $0.68 or 5% and easily negated the drop in voice ARPU.
- Sprint led in data ARPU with $15.5 followed by Verizon at $14.96. In terms of % contribution, Verizon led with 29.28% followed by AT&T at 28.74%.
Subscribers (Slides 16-17)
- In Q209, the US market added approximately 2.8 M new subscriptions down 6% from Q109.
- The number of data subscribers has been on the rise with Verizon leading the way. At the end of Q209, 65% of US subscribers were using some form of data services.
- The messaging volumes in the US market now average almost 540 messages/subscriber/month or at the frequency of almost at a message/hour/sub thus reaching close to the messaging leader Philippines.
- In terms of net-adds, thanks to the boost from the iPhone, ATT led in Q209 with 1.4M net-adds, edging its friendly rival Verizon which added 1.1M net subscriptions. T-Mobile net-adds reduced to 325K while Sprint lost 214K.
- The 3G penetration in the US stays at a healthy 40%+ in Q209. Verizon led the pack while T-Mobile is slowly expanding its 3G coverage. The growth in 3G and smartphones is helping offset some of the downward pressure on the data revenues and overall ARPU. (I will be moderating a panel “Ultraband: A Fast Platform For Innovation” at GigaOM’s Mobilize in Sept. We will discuss the future of broadband and its implications)
Applications and Services
- Non-messaging services continue to grab 50-65% of the data revenues for the US carriers.
- The flat-rate pricing movement that was started by Willcom in Japan which moved to Europe became more prevalent in the US market with industry wide flat-rate pricing plans that included data. All the major carriers seem to be offering flat-fee access plans for most of the new smartphones being introduced in the market. Approximately 18% of the consumers have flat-rate data plans.
- There are probably 18-20 sub-segments within mobile data services and consolidation looms. While the valuations are still high for rapid consolidation, we think that due to recession pressure, the M&A scene is starting to heat up.
- The usage and data consumption trends are enabling carriers to accelerate their 4G plans and develop long-term business and technical strategies (We will be discussing the state of the industry and what lies ahead at the inaugural “Mobile Breakfast Series” on Sept 22nd in the panel discussion “State of the Union: Where do we go from here”)
- The appstores battle is intensifying with OEMs and carriers are announcing their plans and some of them are opening their wares to woo the developer community. In the midst of the appstores hoopla, Apple announced the passing of the 1.5 Billion download mark with increasing number of developers participating the ecosystem. The new functionality being released with 3.0 is taking the battle up a notch. The clear-cut business model of 30/70+ split is attractive to the long-tail of developers. While there is no dearth of applications, findability remains a challenge. Also, appstores are changing the monetization strategies for content and application developers and the industry is trying to figure out what “Open” means in the long-term. (Will be discussing this and more at CTIA in Oct)
- The App vs. Mobile Web discussion reached a surprisingly new crescendo. The evolution is pretty clear - for the applications that don’t require significant UI resources, it will be better to develop in for the browser, for intensive games, the native platform will be ahead of the browser advances. The location API access on the iPhone browser is breakthrough to have developers start thinking about the webapps. But, what does it do to the revenue model? (I will be moderating two panels on the subject in Nov at the Open Mobile Summit)
Handsets
- After falling below the 100M/quarter level in Q1, Nokia rebounded to sell 103M units in Q2 09. Samsung also exceed 50M with a strong second finish at 52M. LG finished a strong third with almost 30M in its bag and Motorola showed signs of strength by selling close to 15M units.
- The second quarter was dominated by two blockbuster launches of iPhone 3GS and Palm Pre. While iPhone continued to attract new customers, Pre suffered from a less than stellar launch strategy. By lowering the 3G device price to $99, Apple set the new bar in smartphone pricing leaving the rivals scrambling for response. T-Mobile launched another Android device last month.
- The growth in smartphone usage is also putting pressure on the networks which are not able to handle the load during peak times in certain cities thus forcing carriers to look for alternate strategies to satisfy the demand for broadband - usage billing, UMA, Femtocells, Hotspot buys, WiMAX, LTE, and others.
- Rest of 2009 is eagerly awaiting the release of Palm Pre, several Android handsets from HTC, Samsung, Motorola, and others, Windows devices along with follow on of Danger devices, new model(s) of iPhone, and other touch screen devices.
Misc.
- Not surprisingly, Venture capital market experienced a continued decline in thefirst half of 2009, with companies announcing $1.2B in financings vs. $1.6B for 2H08 and $2.1B for 1H08. (Source: Rutberg)
- In a sign of convergence battles to come, T-Mobile’s @Home and various Femto cell initiatives are taking hold. Cable operators are also aggressively seeking triple-play by providing the wireless component of the service.
- China crossed the 700M subscription mark last month. In terms of net-adds, India has outpaced China for every single month of the last one year. The Indian market added almost 140M vs. 100M in China during the last four quarters. (more discussion on the international market in our global market update next month)
We will be keeping a close eye on the trends in the wireless data sector in our blog, twitter feeds, future research reports, and articles. The next US Wireless Data Market update will be released in Oct 2009. The next Global Wireless Data Market update will be issued in Sept 2009.
Your feedback is always welcome.
Should you have any questions about navigating or understanding the economic and competitive icebergs, please feel free to drop us a line.
Thanks.
Chetan Sharma
Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this note are our clients.
New Book: Enterprise Mobility: Applications, Technologies and Strategies August 24, 2008
Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, ARPU, BRIC, Carriers, Enterprise Mobility, European Wireless Market, IP, IP Strategy, Indian Wireless Market, Japan Wireless Market, Location Based Services, MVNO, Mergers and Acquisitions, Messaging, Microsoft Mobile, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Search, Mobile TV, Mobile Usability, Mobile Users, Mobile Wallet, Networks, Patent Strategies, Patent Strategy, Patents, Privacy, Smart Phones, Strategy, US Wireless Market, Unified Messaging, Wi-Fi, WiMax, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 2 comments
Enterprise Mobility: Applications, Technologies and Strategies
IOS Press
Chapter Contribution
“Enterprise mobile product strategy using scenario planning”
SAMIMUNEER (SAP) and CHETANSHARMA
http://www.chetansharma.com/enterprise_mobility_scenario_planning.htm
Each year, we work on strategies and product plans for our clients around the world that end up touching millions of consumers worldwide and do behind-the-scenes research, due-diligence, and analysis work on several critical deals and transactions that move our industry forward. But, rarely do we talk or write about them, due to obvious reasons.
However, last year, I got an opportunity to briefly write about some of the strategy work. On the request of Dr. Basole at Georgia Tech, my colleague Sami Muneer (Sr. Director, Enabling Solutions at SAP – responsible for all things mobile) and I drew from some of the long-term strategy and product planning work we had done for SAP to put together a paper on “Enterprise mobile product strategy using scenario planning.” SAP is the leading global enterprise player and their view of the world is both comprehensive and long-term. It was a privilege to work with their global team on the project.
Our paper is being published as a chapter in the just released book “Enterprise Mobility: Applications, Technologies and Strategies” (IOS Press, Amsterdam. 272 pages, Editor R. Basole, 2008) as part of The Tennenbaum Institute Series on Enterprise Systems. The chapter is also being published in the special issue of peer-reviewed International Knowledge Systems Management (IKSM) journal published by Georgia Tech.
The book is a collection of 13 chapters from academics and practitioners in enterprise mobility. I often use scenario planning techniques when doing long-term strategic assessment and forecasting. In this chapter, we hope to provide a framework for scenario planning in mobile that can go across verticals, applications, and services.
You can download the chapter here.
IKSM is making available all the chapters online (for free) if you register for a free one year subscription.
For those interested in reading the paper copy can order the book here.
Book Introduction
As the number of enterprises using mobile ICT increases, it becomes imperative to have a more complete understanding of what value and impact enterprise mobility has, what drives and enables it, and in what ways it can and will transform the nature and practices of work, organizational cultures, business processes, supply chains, enterprises, and potentially entire markets. Enterprise mobility is therefore a topic of great interest to both scholars and practitioners. Enterprise Mobility: Researching a new paradigm aims to contribute to and extend both our theoretical and practical understanding of enterprise mobility by exploring the necessary strategic, technological, and economic considerations, adoption and implementation motivators and inhibitors, usage contexts, social implications, human-centered design issues, support requirements, and transformative impacts. The main objective is to discuss applications, technologies, strategies, theories, frameworks, contexts, case studies, and analyses that provide insights into the growing reality of enterprise mobility for scholars and practicing managers. This volume contains thirteen articles from leading scholars and practitioners and includes an examination of the changing nature of work, work practices, and the work environment; a discussion of critical enablers of enterprise mobility; authors exploring strategic considerations; and insightful case studies of enterprise mobility across multiple domains. Together, the articles explore enterprise mobility across the entire continuum.
Enterprise mobile product strategy using scenario planning
Author(s): Sami Muneer and Chetan Sharma
The Mobile industry is changing at a rapid pace and so is the behavior of enterprise workforce which uses mobile technologies. When planning for a long-term product roadmap, one has to consider a myriad of evolution trends and forecasts to determine the probable list of product functionality and their introduction timing in the lifecycle of the product. One has to look at the technology trends by market, the competitive landscape, and the mobile worker adoption trends. However, one can only come up with a prioritized list of capabilities by taking into context the company’s own core competencies, skill sets, and overall mission. This paper looks at how mobile product companies can use scenario-planning methodology to formulate their product strategy and roadmap.
The listing of the chapters is as follows:
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Enterprise mobility: Researching a new paradigm
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The convergence of wireless, mobility, and the Internet and its relevance to enterprises
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Business mobility: A changing ecosystem
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A socio-technical perspective of mobile work
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Designing productive spaces for mobile workers: Role insights from network analysis
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Telecommuting and corporate culture: Implications for the mobile enterprise
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User requirements of mobile technology: A summary of research results
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Mobile interaction design: Integrating individual and organizational perspectives
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A comparative anatomy of mobile enterprise applications: Towards a framework of software reuse
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Protecting data on mobile devices: A taxonomy of security threats to mobile computing and review of applicable defenses
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Enterprise mobility and support outsourcing: A research model and initial findings
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Enterprise mobile product strategy using scenario planning
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The strategic value of enterprise mobility: Case study insights
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Exploring enterprise mobility: Lessons from the field
Your feedback is always welcome.
Thanks.
Chetan Sharma
Inside the USPTO: A Guide to the Patenting Process April 30, 2008
Posted by chetan in : AORTA, IP, IP Strategy, Intellectual Property, International Trade, M&A, Mergers and Acquisitions, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Patent Strategies, Patent Strategy, Patents, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a commentInside the USPTO: A Guide to the Patenting Process
by Carlos Villamar and Chetan Sharma
http://www.chetansharma.com/insidetheuspto.htm
Note: We have an integrated approach to strategy as we strongly believe that taking market research, business, technology, and intellectual property inputs into strategic initiatives is essential in obtaining a long-term sustainable competitive advantage in the industry. To further the dialogue on the subject, we will be publishing several articles, white papers, books, and blog posts over the course of next few months. This white paper is to help entrepreneurs and inventors understand the patenting process.
This white paper was a collaboration with Carlos Villamar, Partner, Roberts Mlotkowski Safran & Cole. Carlos is a patent attorney who has also worked as a patent examiner at the USPTO.
Abstract
Patents are a key corporate asset that can give the inventor and the company an invaluable tool to protect and commercialize inventions. The process of obtaining a patent is an important one from start to finish. Beginning with patent strategy, due-diligence and patent search through the United States Patent Office (USPTO) process to finally getting the grant, one needs to have a good understanding of each step. This increases the probability of success by removing uncertainty from the process. Inside the USPTO: A guide to the patenting process takes a detailed look at the ideation and the patent process, specifically, how patent applications flow through the USPTO. By having a good grasp of the intermediate steps and the various decision points associated with each of them, the paper discusses how entrepreneurs and inventors can maximize their chances of securing a patent.
Introduction
We live in a knowledge economy and Intellectual Property is a key asset in this new ecosystem. Patents are one of the essential elements to creating barriers to entry for rivals, building credibility and confidence of investors, customers, partners, and employees, providing clarity as to the property ownership, demanding leverage from the industry, and for generating revenue from licensing and sale.
The knowledge economy thrives and sustains on ideas and competitive advantage based on intellectual property. For individuals, the prestige associated with being an innovator and first to secure patents in a given field motivates them to be creative and innovative. Entrepreneurs, engineers, and inventors can benefit from understanding how to secure and maintain their intellectual property rights. This paper discusses the important steps in designing, filing, procuring, and defending your patent rights.
The following diagram illustrates at a high-level the patenting process and important considerations in the decision flow chart. The flow chart is discussed in detail in the subsequent sections.
Table of Contents
| Abstract | 3 |
| Introduction | 4 |
| Pre filing due diligence | 6 |
| Patent preparation | 9 |
| USPTO filing | 11 |
| USPTO examination | 13 |
| After approval | 16 |
| Conclusions and Recommendations | 17 |
Download the full white paper here.
Your feedback is always welcome.
Coming Soon: Inside the USPTO - A guide to the patenting process April 29, 2008
Posted by chetan in : IP, IP Strategy, Patent Strategies, Patent Strategy, Patents , add a comment
Abstract
Patents are a key corporate asset that can give the inventor and the company an invaluable tool to protect and commercialize the inventions. The process of obtaining a patent is an important one from start to finish. Beginning with patent strategy, due-diligence and patent search through the United States Patent Office (USPTO) process to finally getting the grant, one needs to have a good understanding of each step to increase the probability of success and thus remove uncertainty from the process. Inside the USPTO: A guide to the patenting process takes a look the ideation and the patent process from start to finish, specifically, how patent applications flow through the USPTO. By having a good grasp of the intermediate steps and the various decision points associated with each of them, the paper discusses how entrepreneurs and inventors can maximize their chances of securing a patent.
Inside the USPTO: An In-Depth look at the art of securing a patent April 18, 2008
Posted by chetan in : IP, IP Strategy, Patent Strategies, Patent Strategy, Patents , add a comment
As some of you know, I work extensively in the Intellectual Property Space. Over the past few weeks, I have been collaborating with a good friend and colleague of mine - Carlos Villamar, Partner at Roberts Mlotkowski Safran & Cole in Washington DC on a paper that takes an in-depth look at the processes and strategies required to secure a patent. In his past life, Carlos was a patent examiner with the USPTO so his insights have been very valuable.
We will be releasing the paper in early May. Stay Tuned.
