New Book: Enterprise Mobility: Applications, Technologies and Strategies August 24, 2008
Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, ARPU, BRIC, Carriers, Enterprise Mobility, European Wireless Market, IP, IP Strategy, Indian Wireless Market, Japan Wireless Market, Location Based Services, MVNO, Mergers and Acquisitions, Messaging, Microsoft Mobile, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Search, Mobile TV, Mobile Usability, Mobile Users, Mobile Wallet, Networks, Patent Strategies, Patent Strategy, Patents, Privacy, Smart Phones, Strategy, US Wireless Market, Unified Messaging, Wi-Fi, WiMax, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 2 comments
Enterprise Mobility: Applications, Technologies and Strategies
IOS Press
Chapter Contribution
“Enterprise mobile product strategy using scenario planning”
SAMIMUNEER (SAP) and CHETANSHARMA
http://www.chetansharma.com/enterprise_mobility_scenario_planning.htm
Each year, we work on strategies and product plans for our clients around the world that end up touching millions of consumers worldwide and do behind-the-scenes research, due-diligence, and analysis work on several critical deals and transactions that move our industry forward. But, rarely do we talk or write about them, due to obvious reasons.
However, last year, I got an opportunity to briefly write about some of the strategy work. On the request of Dr. Basole at Georgia Tech, my colleague Sami Muneer (Sr. Director, Enabling Solutions at SAP – responsible for all things mobile) and I drew from some of the long-term strategy and product planning work we had done for SAP to put together a paper on “Enterprise mobile product strategy using scenario planning.” SAP is the leading global enterprise player and their view of the world is both comprehensive and long-term. It was a privilege to work with their global team on the project.
Our paper is being published as a chapter in the just released book “Enterprise Mobility: Applications, Technologies and Strategies” (IOS Press, Amsterdam. 272 pages, Editor R. Basole, 2008) as part of The Tennenbaum Institute Series on Enterprise Systems. The chapter is also being published in the special issue of peer-reviewed International Knowledge Systems Management (IKSM) journal published by Georgia Tech.
The book is a collection of 13 chapters from academics and practitioners in enterprise mobility. I often use scenario planning techniques when doing long-term strategic assessment and forecasting. In this chapter, we hope to provide a framework for scenario planning in mobile that can go across verticals, applications, and services.
You can download the chapter here.
IKSM is making available all the chapters online (for free) if you register for a free one year subscription.
For those interested in reading the paper copy can order the book here.
Book Introduction
As the number of enterprises using mobile ICT increases, it becomes imperative to have a more complete understanding of what value and impact enterprise mobility has, what drives and enables it, and in what ways it can and will transform the nature and practices of work, organizational cultures, business processes, supply chains, enterprises, and potentially entire markets. Enterprise mobility is therefore a topic of great interest to both scholars and practitioners. Enterprise Mobility: Researching a new paradigm aims to contribute to and extend both our theoretical and practical understanding of enterprise mobility by exploring the necessary strategic, technological, and economic considerations, adoption and implementation motivators and inhibitors, usage contexts, social implications, human-centered design issues, support requirements, and transformative impacts. The main objective is to discuss applications, technologies, strategies, theories, frameworks, contexts, case studies, and analyses that provide insights into the growing reality of enterprise mobility for scholars and practicing managers. This volume contains thirteen articles from leading scholars and practitioners and includes an examination of the changing nature of work, work practices, and the work environment; a discussion of critical enablers of enterprise mobility; authors exploring strategic considerations; and insightful case studies of enterprise mobility across multiple domains. Together, the articles explore enterprise mobility across the entire continuum.
Enterprise mobile product strategy using scenario planning
Author(s): Sami Muneer and Chetan Sharma
The Mobile industry is changing at a rapid pace and so is the behavior of enterprise workforce which uses mobile technologies. When planning for a long-term product roadmap, one has to consider a myriad of evolution trends and forecasts to determine the probable list of product functionality and their introduction timing in the lifecycle of the product. One has to look at the technology trends by market, the competitive landscape, and the mobile worker adoption trends. However, one can only come up with a prioritized list of capabilities by taking into context the company’s own core competencies, skill sets, and overall mission. This paper looks at how mobile product companies can use scenario-planning methodology to formulate their product strategy and roadmap.
The listing of the chapters is as follows:
-
Enterprise mobility: Researching a new paradigm
-
The convergence of wireless, mobility, and the Internet and its relevance to enterprises
-
Business mobility: A changing ecosystem
-
A socio-technical perspective of mobile work
-
Designing productive spaces for mobile workers: Role insights from network analysis
-
Telecommuting and corporate culture: Implications for the mobile enterprise
-
User requirements of mobile technology: A summary of research results
-
Mobile interaction design: Integrating individual and organizational perspectives
-
A comparative anatomy of mobile enterprise applications: Towards a framework of software reuse
-
Protecting data on mobile devices: A taxonomy of security threats to mobile computing and review of applicable defenses
-
Enterprise mobility and support outsourcing: A research model and initial findings
-
Enterprise mobile product strategy using scenario planning
-
The strategic value of enterprise mobility: Case study insights
-
Exploring enterprise mobility: Lessons from the field
Your feedback is always welcome.
Thanks.
Chetan Sharma
US Wireless Data Market Update - Q2 2008 August 10, 2008
Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, ARPU, BRIC, CTIA, Carriers, Devices, Enterprise Mobility, European Wireless Market, Indian Wireless Market, Japan Wireless Market, Location Based Services, M&A, Mergers and Acquisitions, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Search, Mobile Usability, Smart Phones, Speaking Engagements, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 4 comments
http://www.chetansharma.com/usmarketupdateq208.htm
The US wireless data market grew 40% in Q208 compared to Q207 to reach $8.2B in data revenues. The total for 2008 stands at $15.7B for the first six months, 38% higher than the total for the same time period in 2007. The news of Alltel acquisition, iPhone 3G, and the flat rate pricing wars dominated the news. Though the infatuation for iPhone was a few degrees lower, Apple managed to keep the device front and center of the news cycles. US again exceeded Japan in mobile data service revenues for the quarter and the market is on track to reach $34B in data revenues for 2008.
- The US Wireless data service revenues grew 8.6% Q/Q to $8.2B in Q208. Compared to Q107, the data service revenues grew 40%.
- Overall ARPU increased by $0.46. Average voice ARPU declined by $0.05 while average data ARPU grew by $0.50 or 5%.
- Verizon lead in data ARPU with $12.58 (or 24.41% of the revenues) closely followed by Sprint at $12 (or 21.4354%), AT&T at $11.59 (or 22.91%) and T-Mobile at $8.60 (or 17%).
- The strongest growth in Q208 came from Verizon with 13% increase in data revenues from Q108. Verizon generated an industry record $2.6B in data revenues closely followed by AT&T at $2.5B. Both AT&T and Verizon are on target to exceed $10B in data revenues for the year for the first time by any operator worldwide besides NTT DoCoMo (the two US carriers are already close to 50% of the target). AT&T and Verizon now account for 62% of the market data services revenues. Sprint reversed its decline in data revenues during last quarter to increase its data revenues by 3% in Q208. T-Mobile registered a 5% uptick.
- The average industry % contribution of data to service revenues exceeded 21% and now stands at 21.41%. A year ago, the % contribution stood at approximately 17%.
- The number of data subscribers has been on the rise with Verizon leading the way. At the end of Q208, Verizon had that 49.6M (or 72%) data subscribers. Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile subscribers joined to send over 169 Billion text messages in Q208 translating into almost a message every 2 hours or so. This compared to users in Philippines where average routinely surpasses a message every hour.
- In terms of net-adds, Verizon continued to lead with 1.5M net-adds again edging AT&T by 200K subscribers for the quarter.
- For the first time, T-Mobile USA entered the top 10 rankings of global mobile operators by data revenues replacing SK Telecom which suffered decline for the second straight quarter. In fact, SKT got pushed to the 12th spot by Orange France. The top three US carriers again maintained their respective rankings amongst the top 10 global carriers in terms of data revenues. For the quarter, Verizon, AT&T, and Sprint Nextel stood at #4, 5, and 6 respectively with Verizon and AT&T closing in on China Mobile (2nd) and KDDI (3rd). AT&T and Verizon are in the select group of five global operators who are now generating $2B or more in data revenues/quarter (the other three are NTT DoCoMo, China Mobile, and KDDI).
- Non-messaging continues to grab 50-60% of the data revenues for the US carriers.
- The flat-rate pricing movement that was started by Willcom in Japan which moved to Europe started to enter the US market with industry wide flat-rate pricing plans that included data. Sprint has been the most aggressive with its “Simply Everything” plans that include data services. 30% of its $100 plan is assigned to data revenues (for accounting purposes).
- Q208 saw the blockbuster acquisition of Alltel by Verizon which is likely to close by end of the year. The $28B acquisition will catapult Verizon ahead of AT&T in total number of subscribers by a big margin (10M or so) and make it a leader in almost all major categories.
- There continues to be tremendous activity in the area of Mobile Advertising. AdInfuse, Admob, Amobee, Millennial Media, Nokia, Rhythm New Media, Yahoo, and others ran compelling campaigns. There was also meaningful activity on the carrier front with industry wide initiatives.
- Venture money experienced a decline into the mobile sector. During the first half of the year, private wireless companies announced $1.8B in 173 financings, compared to $2.7B in 209 financings for the same time period last year. (Source: Rutberg)
- Nokia eclipsed 100M unit sale in Q208 for the fifth straight quarter. It sold over 122M handsets in Q208 (out of the total 297M), almost as many as the next four combined. Nokia’s global market share edged past 41%. Samsung at 15%, Motorola with 9.5%, LG with 9.3% and Sony Ericsson with 8% rounded out the top five. For the year, the industry looks to again eclipse the 1 billion handset mark for 2008
- 3G penetration in the US went past 30% in Q208, with Verizon leading the pack with over 60% 3G subscriber penetration compared to 25% 3G subscriber penetration at AT&T. T-Mobile is slowly expanding its 3G coverage. 3G subs have over $23 in data ARPU. These trends are expected and the diffusion of mobile broadband will continue to create new opportunities and revenues for the ecosystem.
- Apple announced a 3G iPhone in June and launched an aggressive expansion plan to reach 70+ countries. The broadband and appstore capabilities are quite attractive to consumers and it shows. VPN and direct access to Exchange will get many more users into the mix and IT folks less apprehensive. The clearcut business model of 30/70 split is also attractive. Apple is likely to announce in Sept (may wait for its quarterly results in Oct) that it has reached the 10M goal for iPhone.
- Feeling the threat from Apple and Google, Nokia bought the remaining portion of Symbian and announced the plan to open-source the OS, making things interesting in the wireless ecosystem. It puts Microsoft on the defensive and will be forced to reduce its licensing fee per device closer to zero. While Apple basked in the glow of iPhone 2.0, Google spent time swatting rumors of Android delay. Giving the changing dynamics in the industry, Google might be forced to play its gPhone hand earlier than it had anticipated.
- After raising $14.5B from friends and family, Clearwire’s net-adds dropped in Q208. It needs to get its content and handset strategy in place in short-order.
- In a sign of convergence battles to come, T-Mobile’s @Home and Sprint’s Femto cell initiatives started to take hold. Cable operators are also aggressively seeking triple-play by providing the wireless component of the service.
Global update
- China and India added approximately 52M subscriptions combined in Q208 with China marginally edging out India. For the year, both countries have added almost identical number of subscriptions (53M). By comparison, US added 7.5M for the same time period.
- NTT DoCoMo continues to dominate the wireless data revenues rankings with almost $3.4B in data services revenue in Q208. Almost 40% of its revenue now comes from data services. DoCoMo also crossed 84% in 3G penetration in Q208 and is expected to cross 90% by early 2009.
- Most of the major carriers around the world have double digit percentage contribution to their overall ARPU from data services. Operators like KDDI, DoCoMo, and O2 UK are consistently topping 30%.
More details in our worldwide wireless data market update in our Global Wireless Data Market Update Sept 2008.
Your feedback is always welcome.
Thanks.
Chetan Sharma
Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this note are our clients.
The Larry Weber Show: Mobile Advertising and Wireless Technology August 5, 2008
Posted by chetan in : 3G, AORTA, Carriers, European Wireless Market, Intellectual Property, Microsoft Mobile, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Search, Mobile TV, Speaking Engagements, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a commentThe legendary Larry Weber interviewed me for his Show “MarketEdge with Larry Weber.” It is live now over at Webmaster Radio. The topic of discussion was of course “Mobile Advertising and its implications to the mobile ecosystem.”
Enjoy!
|
|||||
 |
 |
||||
Dolce and Gabbana’s Ad campaign on Nokia’s Ad network August 4, 2008
Posted by chetan in : European Wireless Market, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem , add a comment
Italy’s leading luxury brand Dolce&Gabbana did a campaign for the Male Fashion show in Italy in June on Nokia’s Ad network. The goal was to increase awareness with a viral campaign. It received CTRs of almost 10% over a 2 week period.
As part of the campaign, Dolce & Gabbana developed a game called Dee&Gee. The Nokia Interactive Advertising Solutions team created banner ads that ran on the Nokia Media Network and led consumers to a D&G mobile website where they could download the game to their handset, view the D&G catalog and download D&G-branded wallpaper.
It is one of the first mobile campaigns run by a top fashion brand.
Bellagio Presentation
Posted by chetan in : 3G, ARPU, BRIC, Carriers, European Wireless Market, Indian Wireless Market, Intellectual Property, Japan Wireless Market, Location Based Services, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Search, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment2008 in review - revisiting annual predictions July 31, 2008
Posted by chetan in : 3G, AORTA, ARPU, Carriers, Intellectual Property, MVNO, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Search, Mobile TV, Mobile Usability, US Wireless Market, Unified Messaging, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a commentAt the turn of the year, we asked a number of industry insiders to opine on upcoming trends for 2008. Below is the summary of survey. Full results here.
Perhaps, it is time to revisit. Updated comments in italics.
1. Will Google introduce a Google Branded Phone in 2008?
Will it? Wont it? 44.5% gave it a 75% or higher chance of happening while 40% thought it aint happening. GPhone is a temptation Google will find hard to resist though a lot will depend on how various initiatives and partnerships shape-up on the ground. In any case, expect another major announcement in the next 2-3 months.
Opinions were mixed. Given the problems with the ecosystem, delay in launch, and unclear business models, while the probability of GPhone launch has gone up, chances for a 2008 launch remain low. Google would want the ecosystem to give it a shot before deciding to compete with them.
2. Will Google play to win in the 700MHz Spectrum Auction?
Google has played the spectrum chess game effectively. Almost 50% respondents gave it a 75% or higher chance of Google winning the bid. Though expectations are high, Google is unlikely to play to win. Services business is not their cup of tea, they could still fund the Clearwire-Sprint deal but that investment can be spent differently to get better end-results, i.e. mobile ad revenue.
We didn’t believe that Google is playing the game to win, only wanted to be an irritant to his fellow brethren. As expected, they funded the Clearwire-Sprint deal.
3. Will Microsoft launch its own mobile phone?
Unless Google comes out with GPhone, Microsoft will stay content with its operator distribution strategy. 63% of respondents gave it less than a 25% chance of Microsoft releasing their own phone. If GPhone comes out and gets some traction, expect Microsoft to get its fast follower strategy into high gear.
I think Microsoft is taking a “wait and see” approach on this one and is likely to come out with something once GPhone is out. Remember Zune.
4. Will Mobile Payments get traction in North America and Western Europe?
Only 9% thought it is a sure bet for 2008. True mobile commerce hasnt really started in the western world. While there are significant movements, 2008 will just be a lay the groundwork year for mobile payments.
Even from “laying the ground work” point of view, we seem to be behind. Number of trials and activity though, expect to see some noticeable launches in first half of 2009.
5. Will WiMAX regroup from its setbacks?
Only 35% gave it a 75% or higher chance (of WiMAX resurrecting itself esp. in the US in 2008). A lot depends on how Mr. Hesse deals with Sprints WiMAX business. Indications are there will be a deal with Clearwire to off-load the risks via some external investment (Google?).
Well, Mr. Hesse dealt his hand and now all eyes are on Mr. McCaw - can he deliver?
6. Will Helio survive 2008?
Almost 70% respondents thought Helio wont make it. Given the flameout of some of the prominent new-generation MVNOs, it is hard to see how Helio will see 2009. It will all come down to how persistent is SK Telecom. Earthlink doesnt have the bank balance to keep funding this initiative.
Well, majority thought, Helio won’t be around and SKT realized it too and sold the unit to Virgin Mobile. At least, it didn’t have to file chapter 11.
7. Will Verizon truly open-up its garden for third-party visitations?
Only 5% thought it is a sure bet for 2008. Verizons open posturing was more to ward off any regulators and to improve its image. There is unlikely to be any meaningful progress on this front this year.
Hardly anyone thought that VZ is serious and not much has happened on that front just yet.
8. Will 2008 be the inflection year for Mobile Advertising?
42% gave Mobile Advertising a 75% or higher chance for rapid growth. Market will mature, more consolidation, some privacy gaffes but overall things are looking up for mobile advertising.
There is definitely growth in the Mobile Advertising segment. Inflection point is in the eyes of the beholder. I say, we will make pretty good progress this year but mobile ad spend will still be < 1% of the overall mix. Still lots of foundation work need to be done by the industry. Almost every serious carrier, advertiser, agency, middleware, online player is involved in mobile advertising and it is just a matter of time before things get sorted out.
9. Will Femto-Cells gain any significant momentum in 2008?
It will be an introduction and experimentation year, so no significant traction is expected. Over 52% thought Femto-Cells will be just a buzz word in 2008.
Well, Sprint launched Femto-Cells but it will be a while before they become pervasive.
10. Will Nokia be able to extract iPhone-style rev-share from carriers in 2008?
Less than 20% thought Nokia will be able to do an Apple when it comes to rev-share arrangements. For OEMs, going direct to the consumers was considered treachery to the sacrosanct relationship with the operators. Until Apple showed up with iPhone. Now, Nokia is putting its services strategy in motion and is building a direct relationship with the consumers worldwide and it has a good shot at pulling it off though it will be a long haul.
Given that Apple prudently reversed its business model, the chances of any other OEM extracting iPhone 1.0 type rev-share are going to almost zero.
11. Will Palm survive 2008?
Only 8% gave it a 100% chance of surviving 08 as an independent entity. It will be difficult for Palm to stay in a status-quo mode. They desperately need a hit device that can give them some breathing room. Given all the operational and strategic problems the company is having, a sale is likely.
Most thought (including yours truly) that Palm will have a difficult time surviving 08. However, with some of its recent launches have put some life back into the company and it might go on for a few more quarters. The problems and challenges are still quite stark.
12. Will iPhone truly open up?
Over 45% thought iPhone wont open-up in any meaningful way. Apple has built-up one of the most profitable closed empires in the digital world. Are they about open things up? While the iPhone SDK is scheduled for early 08, dont hold your breath on accessing the critical native APIs.
Apple’s Appstore is clearly an idea of the best open closed systems out there. If the closed garden is done well with open flowers can flourish. The system still closed but you can access a number of device APIs to make it worthwhile.
13. Will there be more unsubsidized devices introduced in the US market in 2008?
Almost 49% thought we are likely to see another unsubsidized device in the US market this year. Nokia is looking to go direct and some GSM handset manufacturers are likely to entertain the idea of testing the market with unsubsidized devices.
Given that Apple quickly reversed itself with iPhone 3G, we are unlikely to see unsubsidized devices for some time to come.
14. Will Mobile TV move the needle in 2008?
Almost 70% thought mobile TV wont make much of a difference in 08.Though AT&T is slated to introduce MediaFLO to join Verizon in the Mobile TV services market, lack of devices and better pricing models will hinder wide adoption in 2008. However, downloadable video and VOD content will experience significant growth.
Mobile TV remains plagued with unreasonable business models and pricing plans. Until that is fixed, this will remain a niche hobby for most.
15. Will Android make a dent in handset shipments in 2008?
Only 15% gave it a more than 75% chance this year. It is going to take some time for Android plans to mature and materialize. Dont see any material impact in 08.
We didn’t think Android will make progress in 08 beyond some minor launches. Even they seem uncertain and 08 is not their year.
We will do another survey towards the end of the year, look forward to your participation then. Thanks.
New Paper: Mobile Services Evolution 2008-2018 July 11, 2008
Posted by chetan in : 3G, AORTA, ARPU, BRIC, CTIA, Carriers, Intellectual Property, Japan Wireless Market, MVNO, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Smart Phones, Speaking Engagements, US Wireless Market, Wi-Fi, WiMax, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 2 commentsMobile Services Evolution 2008-2018
Bellagio, Italy. July 13 - Aug 1, 2008
| This project has been made possible by the generous funding from THE UNITED NATIONS FOUNDATION
|
 |
http://www.chetansharma.com/UNF-MobileServicesEvolution.htm
This weekend in Bellagio, Italy begins a 4 week long dialogue on the subject of eHealth. The Conference - Making the eHealth Connection: Global Partnerships, Local solutions is being organized by the eminent Rockefeller Foundation. It will bring in experts and organizations from around the world to discuss, share, develop, agree on solutions going forward. Each week deals with a different nuance of the eHealth framework. This will allow for an in-depth study and discussion. Full conference info here.
Week 3 deals with mHealth and Mobile Telemedicine being organized by The UN Foundation, Vodafone Group Foundation, and the Telemedicine Society of India. As part of this conference The Rockefeller Foundation and its partners have released a series of white papers on various subjects. I was asked by The UN Foundation to look into the potential Mobile Services Evolution going forward and how a platform could be developed that will enable a number of applications focused on enterprise, health, public safety and associated sub-segments. While it is difficult to predict with any precision what might happen 10 years from now, one can try to understand the evolution of technologies, business models and their interrelated ecosystems and see the impact on various vertical segments where we use technology to solve some basic problems. Most of the time, technology itself doesn’t cut it, it requires partnerships, collapsing of the bureaucracy, innovative funding means, and just the burning desire to make a difference that matter the most. I strongly believe in Mobile’s central role in a number of social and public services. Mobile Services Evolution 2008-2018 is a small effort to forward that discussion.
Abstract
Over the last 10 years, the progress made in the global mobile industry has been truly stunning. Mobile device ownership has gone from being a luxury item to necessity as the feverish rate of adoption has spread mobile technologies into every corner of the world. As we look into the next 10 years, it is certain that the mobile phone will be used for much more than just voice communications. There is an opportunity for private institutions and public enterprises to build a vision of cohesive mobile services platform that enables and engages the masses to both fundamentally enhance the quality of their daily existence as well as lead to new opportunities globally. This paper takes a look at the potential evolution of mobile technology and services over the course of the next 10 years and discusses an M-Services framework for building and deploying diverse mobile services. The paper also looks into the challenges of such an endeavor and steps that will be needed to achieve the vision.
Table of Content
| Abstract | 3 |
| Introduction | 4 |
| Mobile device: The Remote control of our lives | 5 |
| Mobile Technology Evolution 2008-2018 | 7 |
| Deployment and adoption of mobile technologies in the developing countries | 9 |
| Mobile Services Platform | 10 |
| What does it take to make it happen? | 15 |
| Conclusions and Recommendations | 18 |
Thanks to THE UNITED NATIONS FOUNDATION for making this work possible. I will be presenting the paper at the conference later this month.
Your feedback is always welcome.
Thanks
Chetan Sharma
DoCoMo Labs Masters of Innovation July 2, 2008
Posted by chetan in : 3G, AORTA, Intellectual Property, Japan Wireless Market, Middleware, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a commentYesterday, I had the honor to present at DoCoMo Labs annual Masters of Innovation program in Palo Alto along with Julie Ask of Jupiter and Tim Bajarin of Creative Strategies. The event was made possible by Richard Felix of Aesthetics Scientist. The theme for the afternoon was “What’s to come in the next 2-3 years?” Given my recent work on Mobile Advertising, I talked about what we can expect in the coming days, who the main players are going to be, etc.
Berna Erol, Senior Research Scientist from Ricoh California Research Center was present at the event and did a pretty nice summary. An excerpt below:
Chetan Sharma, President of Technology and Strategy Consulting, talked about mobile advertising. He made a good point that when thinking about mobile advertising one should not only think about cell phones but also other mobile devices such as Amazons Kindle, iPod Touch, etc.
Chetan emphasized that from advertisers point of view, the following points are most important:
1. Reach: How many people you can touch with your advertisement
2. Targeting/Purity: Reaching the right target audience
3. Effectiveness: Measuring the effectiveness of the advertisement, does user take any action?
4. Efficiency: Getting the benefit and revenue increase for the money spent on advertising.Clearly mobile advertising has advantages especially in advertising targeting and measuring the effectiveness of the advertisement.
Chetan predicts that mobile advertisement will be
bigger than online advertisement and the mobile ad business
has potential to be $20B industry by 2013.When I was listening Chetan I was thinking how annoying it would be to receive mobile advertisements. Then, unknowingly Chetan made a comment and made me a believer: He thinks that idle screen of mobile phones are the holly grail of mobile advertisement, everything will start from there. He thinks, and I agree, people would be willing to receive advertisement and coupon on their idle screen, especially in exchange for reduced monthly mobile provider fees. Another good point was that the location based advertisements (e.g., a restaurant coupon can be delivered when you are close by) would be very important in the near future.
Julie had some really good insights into the social networking impact on mobile while Tim talked the consumer adoption of various technologies over time. Like most, he is a big fan of iPhone.
After our presentations, Ken of Kenradio fame moderated a 90 minute panel discussion and we covered pretty much everything under the sun.
Btw, just for the record, i talked quite a bit about the steps necessary to help enable the market reach $20B in 5 years. Lot of work needs to be done and we have to watch the trigger points.
WIRED article: Google’s Open Source Android Phone Will Free the Wireless Web June 24, 2008
Posted by chetan in : 3G, AORTA, ARPU, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem , add a comment
Dan Roth of WIRED magazine interviewed me for this piece in the July issue. I talked to him after Google announced Android last year. Dan does an in-depth piece on how Android came about and what it might mean for the mobile industry. It is a lengthy piece, here is the link to the complete article.
Some excerpts:
“Is this interesting to Google?” That’s what Andy Rubin was asking Larry Page. It was a spring day in 2005, and the two were in a conference room just off the main lobby at Google’s headquarters. A simple yes and Rubin would have walked away happy.
“You have a significant challenge in mobile, in that the screens are much smaller, so you can’t display nearly as much advertising or take as much space,” Google cofounder Sergey Brin told Wall Street analysts on a recent conference call. “On the other hand, you have much more relevant and timely information, like what location the person might be in, so on balance that leaves me quite optimistic.”
Telecom consultant Chetan Sharma says that Android’s success depends on Google’s willingness to share the wealth. “What’s the relationship going to be between Google and the carriers in terms of advertising dollars?” he asks. “That needs to be nailed down before we know how big Android can be.”
And if they don’t? Not much downside. If the only thing Android achieves as Page knew before Rubin walked into Google three years ago is getting more people to spend more time online, then Google still profits. More users mean more people viewing pages with Google ads. If they’re doing that from an Android phone, great. If not, but they’re on a phone made more Web-friendly thanks to competitive pressure from Google, that’s also fine. “I hope it’s Android,” Page says. But either way, Google wins.
Article in International Journal of Mobile Marketing June 23, 2008
Posted by chetan in : Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment , 1 comment so farIJMM or International Journal of Mobile Marketing is the only major on Mobile Advertising and Marketing. We (co-authors of the Mobile Advertising book) submitted part of one of our chapters as an article for the Jun 08 issue and it got accepted. We choose the piece on “A Five Point Measurement Framework for Mobile Advertising.” For those of you who have read the book or attended one of our presentations on the book tour this year will know our emphasis on Reach, Engagement, Targeting, Viral, and Transactions as the fundamental metrics for thinking about Mobile Advertising. Many companies have adopted the framework in the products and campaign design.
Thanks to Michael Hanley and Michael Becker for putting together the issue and for inviting us to contribute. The press release on the issue is here.
More info on IJMM here.
Featured articles include:
Featured articles include:
- A Five Point Measurement Framework for Mobile Advertising
- Understanding and Implementing Mobile Social Advertising
- Breaking Free from Dotcom Thinking in a Mobile World
- Mobile Marketing: From Marketing Strategy to Mobile Marketing Campaign Implementation
- Mobile Research in Marketing: Design and Implementation Issues
Another piece on measurement from our book that was published by the Milestone Group.
Did AT&T Make the Right Call With Apple’s iPhone? June 22, 2008
Posted by chetan in : Mobile Advertising, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem , add a commentBetsy Cummings of Brandweek interviewed me for this piece.
Did AT&T Make the Right Call With Apple’s iPhone?
June 22, 2008
AT&T may be the biggest beneficiary of Apple’s latest iPhone price cut.
Though some argued that AT&T overpaid to use Apple’s phone, the new $199 price point should help AT&T further solidify its lead in the market and make inroads into the b-to-b arena.
The situation wasn’t as clear last year when AT&T and Apple announced the deal.
Verizon rejected the iPhone because of Apple’s financial terms and demands (among which Apple wanted control of distribution and a cut of the monthly fees). AT&T then swooped in and inked a reported five-year deal in the U.S.
A year later, many industry experts are praising AT&T’s marketing acumen. “AT&T got what it wanted,” said Roger Entner, svp-communications sector at Nielsen IAG, Boston. “This device, at an attractive price point.”
Research in Motion’s BlackBerry still leads the PDA pack with 44.5% market share in the first quarter of 2008 compared to iPhone’s 19.2%, per the IDC Mobile Technology and Trends report on U.S. smartphones. Palm is third at 13.4% followed by Samsung at 8.6%.
But, late last year Apple came closer to leveling the playing field with 26.7% of the market share in the fourth quarter compared to 35.1% held by RIM.
The new phone, experts said, could put AT&T over the edge now that the service provider’s exclusivity and revenue-sharing arrangement with Apple has been dropped for a traditional plan in which AT&T receives all revenue. (The provider buys the iPhone at a somewhat lower price point from Apple.) “The iPhone at the old price was the second most popular phone at AT&T,” said Entner. “Can you imagine what this will do [at] half the price? I think RIM will very quickly feel an impact.”
AT&T’s decision to use income it once shared to subsidize the cost of the new phones is a smart move, experts said. AT&T says it will recoup the losses by 2010, based upon their theory that a lower price point will increase the overall volume of iPhones sold.
The real stroke of genius, analysts said, was the new iPhone’s potential for corporate users: Connections to corporate VPNs (virtual private networks), PowerPoint capabilities and robust GPS offerings, for example.
“It’s going to be a big hit with business customers,” said Mark Siegel, an Atlanta-based spokesperson for AT&T’s wireless business unit.
Recent figures show AT&T’s numbers climbing. The company says its wireless data traffic is quadrupling each year. At the end of 2007, the company claimed 2 million domestic iPhone customers, a number Apple wants to boost to 10 million worldwide (a total of 5.5 million phones had been sold by the first quarter).
Some complain that AT&T’s new service package, which offers voice plans at $40 a month, bilks consumers by charging them $20 to $30 for the phone’s two data service plans.
That’s an additional $240-plus in revenue that AT&T is receiving with each phone, which is causing some to label the phone’s new price point a marketing gimmick.
Still it is good for AT&T’s revenue and market strength, said Chetan Sharma, president of Chetan Sharma Consulting, a wireless strategy consulting firm in Seattle. “I think overall they still benefit in the sense that they’ve raised the price of [the monthly data service].”
Meanwhile, AT&T’s and Apple’s rivals are working hard to come up with iPhone killers. For example, Sprint began offering Samsung’s iPhone-like Instinct exclusively last week, which is designed to cut into AT&T’s market share.
“Let the battle begin,” announced Sprint’s Web site this month. It features a series of online demonstrations to allow visitors to “watch the Instinct defeat the iPhone” in Web, TV, video and GPS speed and operating tests.
“We think we have a phone that stacks up very well against iPhone,” said Paul Golden, vice president of strategic marketing at Samsung Mobile, Richardson, Texas. “A lot of press we’ve received and feedback from consumers is we’ve got a winner here.”
Nokia also is planning to release the N78 smartphone this month. Like the iPhone, the N78 and others are converging features like the camera, GPS and high speed Internet access as the market demands more sophisticated software interaction.
The halo from the iPhone may have even allowed the carrier to dial back its own ad spend. AT&T cut its advertising budget 16% to $465.7 million in the first quarter, per Nielsen Monitor-Plus It has been rallying around its quality of service message with its “More bars in more places message,” via BBDO, New York.
AT&T wouldn’t comment about why it cut its ad budget. The official telecommunication sponsor of the U.S. Olympic Committee is expected to fire up its ad messages in conjunction with the Summer Games.
Despite positive reviews, the new smartphones will have to not only take on iPhone’s features, but Apple’s brand strength, said Boy Genius of The Boy Genius Report in New York. “If you pulled two people off the street and said, ‘Do you want an iPhone or a Samsung,’ they’re going to say, ‘iPhone.’”
3G iPhone today? June 9, 2008
Posted by chetan in : 3G, AORTA, Carriers, Mobile Content, Mobile TV, US Wireless Market , add a commentIn all likelihood, King Jobs will be unveiling the 3G iPhone today. Given the user behavior on iPhone, almost any company involved in mobile data and value added services has built an app for the phone even though the subscriber base is limited. The reason is user experience - many times better than anything else available in the market. Like this new service called vSNAX from Rhythm New Media - a mobile advertising company.
- vSNAX’s clip browser enables rapid browsing and channel surfing while still watching your selected clip in the background (swipe up and down to switch channels, swipe left and right on the thumbnails to view clips within the selected channel)
- vSNAX’s custom designed video controls pop up when you tap the screen while watching a video, tapping on the orange button on the bottom right brings up the clip browser
- vSNAX is ad funded by short pre roll video ads similar to Rhythms other services.
(Source: Rhythm New Media)
Mobile Monday - Amsterdam - Recap June 8, 2008
Posted by chetan in : 3G, AORTA, ARPU, European Wireless Market, Japan Wireless Market, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Speaking Engagements, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 4 commentsOn June 2nd, Mobile Monday, Amsterdam hosted its 6th event and celebrated its 1 year anniversary. I must say it was done with such perfection that the event and the organization should serve as a role model for MoMos around the world. First of all, the sheer size of the audience was great - almost 450 people showed up, looked like anyone of importance in the mobile industry in Amsterdam was there. The event was sponsored by the likes of Vodafone.
Yuri Van Geest, Maarten Lens-FitzGerald, Marc Fonteijn, and others were generous hosts and made my trip worthwhile from start to finish.
With Doc
When I go to Europe, I am there for more than 1 wk but this was a quick turn around due to some other commitments back home. Got into AMS early sunday (jun 1), met with Doc Searls (of Cluetrain Manifesto fame) and Yuri was gracious enough to show us around the city which was just waking up. Festivities in anticipation of European Soccer Championship had already started. Got to hang out with Doc quite a bit and get some insights into his VRM (vendor relationship management) project, also the subject of his talk.
At Speaker’s Dinner with MoMo AMS gang and speakers
After a couple of hours of sleep that afternoon, headed to Maarten and Lori’s house for speaker’s dinner. Yuri and gang had lined up 10 good speakers on mobile advertising. Most of them were from Holland, one speaker from Spain, Russell Buckley of Admob from Germany, Antti Ohrling of Blyk from UK, and Doc and I from the US.
Btw, all the presentations and videos from the event are posted at www.mobilemonday.nl so check it out.
The majestic venue - Rode Hoed, Keizersgracht
The venue of the event was an old church with a three layered seating arrangement, pretty impressive setup. The first half of the program was in Dutch which us poor English (only) speaking folks could hardly understand but it was entertaining never the less. The second half was devoted to Intl speakers with Antti going first. As you might be aware, Blyk has turned some heads with its advertising-subsidized business model (MVNO). His message was simple - “give something of value to the customers, and they will respond with loyalty and yes, will be very open to advertising.” So far, they have gained 140K, a good 5-6 months ahead of schedule. After UK, the launch in Holland is coming soon. Btw, did you know, there are over 65 MVNOs in Holland and doing rather well.
Russell Buckley of Admob and Mobhappy delved into some of the case studies and stats from the Admob Ad-Network. Given the tremendous growth in the number of impressions on their network, the insights were quite relevant. I have been communicating with Antti and Russell virtually, so, it was great to meet with them in person.
Next, I was asked to present my thoughts on Mobile Advertising in Asia from our Mobile Advertising and how Asian market is evolving w.r.t. Europe and if there are some lessons we can draw from the various markets. Dutch are very keen on understanding their role in the global economy, places where they can differentiate and compete. I had off-line discussions with several individuals during my stay and the curiosity was palpable. They are always on the look-out to learn about new trends and technologies and in figuring out areas where Holland can add to the global growth. They were especially interested in discussing how the emergence of China and India is going to impact them. I also noticed that the Dutch seemed to be social-networkers to the hilt and reveled in being the twitter-nation. The number of social networking sites they are active on a constant basis - chirping, posting, streaming, joking, posing to various sites was just amazing. Social scientists and new social networking companies should head to Holland to do some primary research of trends to come in the space.
Video courtesy of MoMo AMS
Finally, Doc talked about VRM and his work in the space. Essentially, the idea around VRM is for users to have control over their profile and preferences and instead of companies deciding what’s good for us, we get to decide and ask for the applications, personalization that’s right for us. What a concept 
I had touched on the concept in my first book back in 2000 and other academics have been researching the space using bots and agents. Great to see the progress in the discussions and hopefully some actual implementations.
After a couple of days of rendezvous in Amsterdam, headed back to Seattle. The trick to surviving the jet-lag was never getting used to the AMS time, so even though I had to fly again to Chicago within a few hours after arrival in the US, I managed to avoid serious hangovers.
Overall, I must commend the MoMo AMS team for a job well done and in challenging other MoMos around the world to emulate them in organization and quality of the program.
US Wireless Data Market Update - Q1 2008 May 18, 2008
Posted by chetan in : 3G, AORTA, Carriers, Enterprise Mobility, European Wireless Market, Indian Wireless Market, Intellectual Property, International Trade, Japan Wireless Market, M&A, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Search, Mobile TV, Mobile Usability, US Wireless Market, Wi-Fi, WiMax, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a commentUS Wireless Data Market Update - Q1 2008
http://www.chetansharma.com/usmarketupdateq108.htm
The US wireless data market grew 38% in Q108 compared to Q107 to reach $7.5B in data revenues. iPhone is not only having an impact on data revenues but also on device design, mobile advertising roadmaps, and applications and services that are being contemplated for future. US exceeded Japan in mobile data service revenues for the quarter and the market is expected to reach $34B in data revenues in 2008.
- The US Wireless data service revenues grew 7.5% Q/Q to $7.5B in Q108. Compared to Q107, the data service revenues grew 38%.
- Overall ARPU declined by $1.12 and for the first time since Q405, the average ARPU dropped more than a dollar Q/Q. Average voice ARPU declined by almost $1.50 while average data ARPU inched up by $0.49 or 5%.
- Verizon lead in data ARPU with $11.94 (or 23.37% of the revenues) closely followed by Sprint at $11.50 (or 20.54%), AT&T at $10.80 (or 21.52%) and T-Mobile at $8.50 (or 17%).
- The strongest growth in Q108 came from AT&T with 15% and 53% increase in data revenues from Q407 and Q107 respectively. Both AT&T and Verizon generated $2.3B in data revenues and are on target to exceed $10B in data revenues for the year for the first time by any operator worldwide besides NTT DoCoMo. AT&T and Verizon now account for 61% of the market data services revenues. Verizon and T-Mobile registered 10% increase in data revenues from Q407 while Sprints declined by 6%.
- The average industry % contribution of data to service revenues exceeded 20% and now stands at 20.62%.
- The number of data subscribers has been on the rise with Verizon leading the way. At the end of Q108, Verizon had that 48.1M (or 72%) data subscribers. Verizon and AT&T subscribers joined to send over 100 Billion text messages in Q108 translating into almost a message every 3 hours. This compared to users in Philippines where average routinely surpasses a message every hour.
- In terms of net-adds, T-Mobile was helped by SunCom acquisition and crossed the 30M subscription mark. Verizon regained its quarterly net-adds title from AT&T by edging its rival 1.5M to 1.2M. Sprint lost customers again, this time exceeding 1M. In March, the US market also slipped behind India to third position in terms of total number of subscriptions (India is predominantly a prepaid market while US is a postpaid market).
- The top three US carriers again maintained their respective rankings amongst the top 10 global carriers in terms of data revenues. For the quarter, Verizon, AT&T, and Sprint Nextel stood at #4, 5, and 6 respectively. AT&T and Verizon are in the select group of five global operators who are now generating $2B or more in data revenues/quarter (the other three are NTT DoCoMo, China Mobile, and KDDI).
- Non-messaging data revenues continue to be in the 50-60% (of the data revenues) range for the US carriers.
- The eagerly anticipated 700 MHz played out as we expected with Google doing enough to make Verizon pay more and kick-in the open-gardens provisions. However, the actual impact on the market dynamics is likely to be negligible. It did however, help open the open debate in the industry.
- There continues to be tremendous activity in the area of Mobile Advertising. While fending off the Microsoft acquisition, Yahoo is busy creating some compelling applications and is stitching together carrier deals around the world.
- Venture money continued to flow into the mobile sector with over $1.5B investment in Q108 (Source: Rutberg). Location Services, Mobile Personalization, Mobile Video, Mobile Search and Advertising, Semiconductor, Carrier infrastructure, Device design and development are hot areas.
- Nokia eclipsed 100M unit sale in Q108 for the fourth straight quarter. It sold over 115M handsets in Q108, more than the next three handset manufacturers combined. Nokias global market share stood at 39%. For the year, the industry looks to again eclipse the 1 billion handset mark for 2008
- 3G penetration in the US was approaching 30% in Q108, with Verizon leading the pack with over 56% 3G subscriber penetration. T-Mobile finally did its 3G launch in limited cities with plans for expansion in 08. 3G subs have over $20 in data ARPU accounting for 30% contribution to the overall ARPU from such subs. These trends are expected and the diffusion of mobile broadband will continue to create new opportunities and revenues for the ecosystem.
- Apple is slated to announce a 3G iPhone next month, has been aggressively expanding the distribution partners, and is expected to blow past the 10M unit (it is already past 5M) sale mark easily by the year-end especially as operators consider giving rebates to attract potential users and their mobile data usage.
- As expected, Clearwire and Sprint banded together to raise $14.5B from friends and family which included the likes of Google, Comcast, Time Warner and others. IF the companies can execute on their strategy in 2008/9 and get the devices out in the market without messing up with pricing, this venture can be quite disruptive to the market much more than any other open initiative.
Global update
- China and India added approximately 55M subscriptions combined in Q108 with India marginally edging out China with a whopping 10.16M net-adds in March (probably for the first time history, monthly net-adds for country have exceeded 10M). By comparison, US added 4.5M in Q1
- NTT DoCoMo continues to dominate the wireless data revenues rankings with over $3.4B in data services revenue in Q108. 35.7% of its revenue now comes from data services. DoCoMo also crossed 80% in 3G penetration in Q108 and is expected to cross 90% by early 2009.
- Most of the major carriers around the world have double digit percentage contribution to their overall ARPU from data services. Operators like KDDI, DoCoMo, and O2 UK are consistently topping 30%.
More details in our worldwide wireless data market update in our Global Wireless Data Market Update Mar 2008.
Your feedback is always welcome.
Chetan Sharma
Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this note are our clients.