2010 Mobile Industry Predictions Survey January 3, 2010
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2010 Mobile Industry Predictions Survey
http://www.chetansharma.com/MobilePredictions2010.htm
Mobile Predictions Survey (pdf)
Mobile Predictions Survey (ppt)
First things first. From all of us at Chetan Sharma Consulting, we wish you and yours a very happy, healthy, and prosperous 2010. Thanks to all who participated in our 2010 Mobile Predictions Annual Survey. We have found it is the best way to think about the trends coming our way.
Before we dive into the survey results, let’s do a quick wrap-up of the year that was. Well, since we just completed one heck of a mobile decade, let’s do a quick jog down the memory lane.
The Last Decade: 2000-2009
Each new decade brings its own consumer and technology trends. During the 2000s mobile cemented its place in the global society fabric, the use of mobility became addictive and pervasive, to be without mobile seemed a curse and innovation blossomed and took user expectations to new heights.
From a pure statistical point of view, the global mobile subscription penetration grew from 12% in 2000 to approximately 68% in 2009 - phenomenal by any measure. The overall revenues grew over 400%, the data revenue grew 32,600% and the total subscriptions grew 563%. NTT DoCoMo paved the way with the i-mode launch in 1999 and they were the operator to emulate throughout the last decade, leading every single year in data revenues, in new application and service revenue sources, and in innovation and risk taking. They tried to export the success to other regions with little reward but DoCoMo clearly led the industry in taking mobile devices where they have never gone before.
China and India were late to the party but during the second half of the decade caught up with the western world and eventually surpassed all nations becoming number one and two nations by subscriptions respectively. In 2006, China Mobile became the most valuable operator passing Vodafone.
Mobile devices went significant transformation as well. From the early Bluetooth, camera, and music phones to the iPhones, the Storms, and the Androids, the industry was transformed by the introduction of Apple’s iPhone in 2007. While Bluetooth, sleek designs, camera phone defined the first half of the decade, the second half was all about the applications and the mobile web. While Nokia dominated the entire decade in terms of the sales and profits, having missed the touch revolution, it leaves the decade a bit battered and a bit behind playing catch-up to the newcomers who profoundly disturbed the status quo.
Razr carried Motorola through 2006 when its global share peaked but was left to reinvent itself during the second half. It seems to have redeemed itself with the successful launch of Droid and upcoming Android devices. While many in the industry predicted RIM’s demise, the company has only gotten stronger and is looking good for the 2010s. The emergence of Samsung and LG as strong players in the mobile ecosystem was also a big story of the decade with Samsung increasing its share by 380% and LG by 575% becoming the number 2 and 3 players respectively.
While Microsoft’s Windows Mobile had an early start and the enterprise market share, it lost its way through several missteps and is on dialysis as we enter the new decade. One shouldn’t count WM out though but there is a lot of work to be done before it can capture the imagination of the ecosystem which has been sequestered away by iPhone and Android.
While many new application areas were introduced during 2000s, none was able to displace SMS as the leading app category by usage and revenues. However, it’s relative share has started to come down especially in North America and Western Europe.
As data usage grew, so did the data traffic bringing many data networks to their knees. We expect the data traffic consumption to only accelerate. Many people are underestimating the growth rates (as they did previously) and the strain the increase in consumption will put on the unprepared networks. Projector phones will take media consumption to a new level. Data management is going to be big business in the 2010s.
Overall, the mobile industry became a trillion dollar industry in 2008 and the data revenues are increasing in almost all regions. Voice is being commoditized at fast pace and that has put the traditional economics and ecosystem wealth distribution in topsy-turvy.
The US market also experienced tremendous growth with mobile data service revenues climbing 21,327% and becoming a mainstay in the mobile economy. In 2008 it crossed Japan as the most valuable mobile data market. US was late in adopting SMS but caught fire once American Idol started using it and even played a good role in the 2008 Presidential election in showcasing the power of mobile. Verizon started the decade being the number one operator and after trading places with Cingular and ATT grabbed the title back in 2009 (after the Alltel acquisition) to become the most dominant carrier in North America. Many smaller players competed by being innovative with Cincinnati Bell launching the fist UMA device, Sprint the first mobile eReader, and TMO launched the hotspot business which has now become an essential component of an operator strategy going forward.
Mobile is also replacing landline at a much faster pace than expected and within the first half of the new decade, we will have majority of the users using mobile vs. landline. Just like the last decade, this one starts with a new standard deployment of LTE that will keep operators and vendors busy throughout the decade. However, a lot of the developing markets will still be deploying 3G during the first half of the decade.
Infrastructure providers suffered the most in the decade bookended by the two recessions. Consolidation of giants (Alcatel Lucent, Nokia Siemens), bankruptcies of the famous (Nortel), and uprising of the upstarts (Huawei) pretty much defined the decade for the segment. Ericsson and Huawei enter the new decade from a strong position and looking to dominate the global markets.
The last decade was also marked by some prominent IP battles such as RIM vs. NTP, Qualcomm vs. Broadcom, Sony Ericsson vs. Samsung, Upaid vs. Satyam etc. (disclaimer: we worked on some of these cases and testified as an expert)
Here is our “subjective” list of movers and shakers of the last decade
2000-2009
2010-2019
Operator of the Decade
NTT DoCoMo
DCM led the way in almost all new category of apps and services. Its data service revenue was highest in each of the last 10 years
DCM will continue to lead along with KDDI and SKT. However, it might be the carriers with tremendous scale who will have the calling cards in the new decade. Watch for China Mobile, Vodafone/Verizon, Telefonica, Orange, Bharti, Unicom, Singtel
OEM of the Decade
Nokia
Nokia dominated in sales and revenues in each of the 10 years and while the last couple of years took some shine off its glorious past, the company nevertheless came out ahead
RIM, Apple, Nokia, Samsung
Smartphone OEM of the Decade
Apple
Smartphones as we know them were introduced by RIM but Apple defined the category and the subsequent ecosystem
This space will be very competitive with Apple still the gold standard to beat
Infrastructure Provider of the Decade
Ericsson
Its prime rivals struggled to stay afloat while Ericsson grabbed most of the revenues from infrastructure contracts and is very well positioned for the next decade
Ericsson is joined by Huawei as the two top infrastructure provider with Huawei giving tough competition for LTE contracts. ZTE and other Chinese infrastructure providers will also replace some of the incumbents
Nation that led in mobile data
Japan
This is a no brainer. Japan led with Korea a close second. Finland, UK also impressed
US, China, and India are well positioned to make an impression but most likely during the second half. Japan will still be a major player
Device of the decade
iPhone followed by Razr
iPhone impressed with form and function while Razr with its global sales making it a top selling device of all times
The field might get more crowded as all OEMs focusing on the smartphone category. However, OEMs who also focus on the 90% of the market w/o smartphones might win the top prize
The year 2009
Apple continued to dominate the headlines for the third straight year - whether it was the launch of 3GS or the upcoming introduction of the fabled tablet. Google too kept the ecosystem active. It has executed on its mobile strategy with brilliant acumen though causing significant consternation amongst its partners who it needs to be successful. It has been often misunderstood by competitors, regulators, and partners. Often, they have focused on Google’s tactics vs. its strategy. Look for these two players to be very aggressive as they try to fight for the mantle and the mindshare.
While Nokia leads the OEM space by a good distance, its momentum in the smartphone space left a lot of question marks. Motorola made a credible comeback with Cliq and Droid. Samsung and LG continued to innovate and expanded on their share of shipments and revenues.
India outpaced China in net-adds and crossed 500M though it is still quite behind China’s 750M. The M&A and the consolidation process became active in Asia with several of the big regional operators looking to flex muscles in the international markets. After several delays, China started deploying 3G while India again fumbled and postponed its 3G auction.
US mobile data market continued its pace in 2009 with each of the four quarters exceeding $10B in data service revenues. The gap between the top two operators and the rest grew to be the biggest in the decade and the industry weathered the recession with ease. There was a clear shift towards prepaid especially for Sprint, T-Mobile, and the tier 2/3 operators.
2009 was also defined by significant activity on the application front. With Facebook eclipsing 100M subscribers and Appstore exceeding 2.5B downloads, sky is the limit.
The year also saw an unprecedented growth in mobile data consumption. As we had predicted, for some of the networks, the growth proved to be a double-edged sword. Many in the industry are banking on LTE to help relieve the pain but will be surprised that depending solely on the upgrade strategy will not be enough. Declaring spectrum as a looming crisis, FCC also started tinkering with the mobile industry and the broadband plan.
Japan exceeded 90% in 3G penetration while US subscriptions ventured into the 90% territory. Most of western Europe is way past 130%.
All in all, a terrific year considering that we went through one of the worst recessions in a generation. As we bid goodbye to the last decade, Nexus One and iTablet only serve to whet our appetite of what’s to come.
On a personal note, we started our consulting practice this last decade as we were coming out of the bubble recession and have been fortunate to work with some of the brightest brains and companies in the global ecosystem. We also had a chance to work on some key initiatives that impacted the ecosystem in profound ways. Many thanks to our clients, colleagues, friends, and readers. We will be involved with many new initiatives over the next decade and are looking forward to the conversations through the research notes, books, speeches, panels, whitepapers, blog posts, facebook and twitter feeds, and more.
Thanks and Happy New Year. May the upcoming decade leave you happier, healthier, and more successful than the previous one.
As we eluded to earlier, 2010 will be a pretty eventful year from several perspectives: business models, user experience and expectations, ecosystem posturing, disruption, and friction. How are things going to shape up? What will be hot and what will fade into oblivion? How will competition shape up the new sub-segments?
We put some of the questions to our colleagues in the industry. We were able to glean some valuable insights from their choices and comments. This survey is different from some of the others in the sense that it includes industry movers and shakers participation. Executives and insiders (n=150) from leading mobile companies across the value chain and around the world opined to help us see what 2010 might bring.
11 names were randomly drawn for 3 special prizes. The winners are:
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Claire Boonstra, Cofounder, Layar- INQMobile 3G Chat device
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Michael Libes, CTO, GroundTruth - Open Mobile Book
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Henri Moissinac, Head of Mobile, Facebook - Open Mobile Book
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Subba Rao, CEO, TataDoCoMo - Open Mobile Book
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Saumil Gandhi, Product Manager, Microsoft - Open Mobile Book
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Sarah Reedy, Senior Editor, Connected Planet - Open Mobile Book
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Mike Vanderwoude, VP & GM, Cincinnati Bell Wireless - 2010 Mobile Almanac
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Pinney Colton, VP, GfK - 2010 Mobile Almanac
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Tim Chang, Principal, Norwest Ventures - 2010 Mobile Almanac
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Laura Marriott, President - 2010 Mobile Almanac
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Asha Vellaikal, Director, Orange - 2010 Mobile Almanac
Thanks to INQMobile and my friend Ajit Jaokar for contributing the prize gifts.
Despite conventional wisdom, what will not happen in 2010?
There were many. Sampling - Verizon iPhone, Microsoft Phone, Sprint will not be bought, Femtocells won’t gain traction, RCS will not happen, Google will not enter handset market directly, iPhone won’t lose steam, Android won’t bring coherence, NFC won’t take off, WiMAX won’t disappear, Nokia won’t bounce back, Palm won’t die, “Year of Mobile” noise won’t subside, carriers won’t be delegated as dumb-pipes.
It is hard to cover the mobile industry in 20 questions. As pointed out by our panelists, there are a number of other issues and opportunities that will help shape our ecosystem - monetization of social networks, augmented reality, the fight for mobile advertising dollars, continued impact of globalization, security and privacy, NFC, IMS, VoIP, enterprise apps beyond email, battery improvements, new interaction modalities, health risks of RF radiation, Mobile 3.0, LTE, single purpose devices, 3G in India, Bada, app vs web, developer turmoil, featurephones, smart grids, M2M, Chrome, etc.
However, be rest assured, we will be tracking these and much more throughout the year and sharing them through various channels.
Thanks again to everyone who contributed. We will be calling on you again next year. We are clearly living in "interesting times" with never a dull moment in our dynamic industry. It has been a terrific year for us here at Chetan Sharma Consulting and we are looking forward to the next decade and seeing many of you along the way.
We hope you enjoyed gaining from the collective wisdom. Your feedback is always welcome.
Be well, Do Cool Work, Stay in touch.
Thanks.
With warm wishes,
Chetan Sharma
Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this note are our clients.
Now onto the 2010 Mobile Industry Predictions Survey Results
The panel comprised of movers and shakers from around the world
What will be the biggest stories of 2010?
Jan seems to be the Google Phone vs. Apple Tablet matchup. Our panel though voted for the continued growth in mobile data as the top story.
Have we recovered from the recession? (Please select one)
Majority thought we are out of it though some might still feel the pinch
Who will be the most open player in the mobile ecosystem in 2010? (Please select one)
Google has done a great job at maintaining its image as THE open leader
Will Android handset sales exceed iPhone’s in 2010? (Please select one)
Despite Androids coming in droves, iPhone will still be the king of the hill
When will we see tiered pricing plans for smartphones in the US from tier 1 operators? (Please select one)
There are indications that this might happen sooner rather than later
What will happen to the mobile prepaid subscriber base in the US? (Please select one)
Prepaid made a strong comeback in 2009 and a good majority thought that the trend is likely to continue
By how much will the mobile advertising ad-spend increase in 2010? (Please select one)
Mobile Advertising was the only advertising segment with positive growth last year so it is no surprise that folks expect it to more than double this year
What will be the impact of the FCC’s national broadband plan on the mobile industry in 2010? (Please select one)
Not much is expected from the various rulings that might come this year with most expecting the courts to have the final word.
Who will be the mobile comeback story of 2010?
Having bet its future on Android, Motorola was voted as the comeback kid of 2010
What will be the impact of Google Phone?
It’s pretty clear, Google and Apple are duking it out for the developer mindshare. Google wins in either case.
Which areas will feel the most impact from FCC?
Net neutrality is the area where they will have the most impact
Which solutions will gain the most traction for managing mobile data broadband consumption?
While only a holistic approach can provide complete relief, tiered mobile data pricing might have the most impact
When will the carrier-branded appstores lose steam? (Please select one)
Most expect carrier-branded appstores to be a thing of the past in 2010
What will help mobile cloud computing gain traction in 2010?
Mobile cloud computing is gaining steam and the reason is storage and media
What will be the most successful non-mobile-phone category in 2010? (Please select one)
Netbooks seem to be the strongest category followed by eReaders, Tablet, and M2M
What will be the breakthrough category in mobile in 2010? (Please select one)
Mobile Advertising and Mobile Payments share the top honors
By the end of 2010, which will have more subscribers? (Please select one)
LTE might have the momentum but WiMAX has the subscribers
How will Netbooks do through the operator channel? (Please select one)
No major impact from the operator channel
Which standards will gain traction?
No major impact from the standards
What mode of mobile payments will get any traction in North America and Western Europe in 2010?
The category will expand in different ways with more items being charged on the operator bill
New Whitepaper: The Untapped Mobile Data Opportunity December 16, 2009
Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, ARPU, BRIC, Carriers, Enterprise Mobility, European Wireless Market, General, IP, IP Strategy, India, Indian Wireless Market, Infrastructure, Intellectual Property, International Trade, Japan Wireless Market, Location Based Services, M&A, MVNO, Microsoft Mobile, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Search, Mobile TV, Mobile Usability, Mobile Users, Networks, Smart Phones, Speech Recognition, Storage, US Wireless Market, Unified Messaging, Wi-Fi, WiMax, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 3 comments
http://www.chetansharma.com/untappedmobiledataopportunity.htm
The Untapped Mobile Data Opportunity
Sponsored by INQMobile
The last two years in the global mobile market have been truly sensational. Over 1 billion new subscriptions added, over 2 billion new devices sold, and over $300 billion in mobile data revenues. The number of new iconic devices each quarter is on the rise, the consumer engagement is at an all time high and the new startups and entrepreneurs are brimming with ideas and new products. Devices like the iPhone, Storm, Hero, INQ1, Mytouch, Cliq, Droid, N97 and others have captured the imagination of the media like never before. The smartphones or the integrated devices now account for approximately 9% of the global market. However, what’s often lost in the smartphone euphoria is the remaining 91% of the market and the significant opportunity of data-enabling these customers.
Operators who have focused on data services as their core service have benefited with high data Average Revenue Per User (ARPU). As we quickly transition into the hyper growth phase of mobile data services, players who are designing affordable devices and services with "mobile data" in mind are the ones who will benefit from a higher uptick in adoption and sustainable consumer loyalty. However, as operators have migrated from 2G to 3G, many have missed an opportunity to customize or introduce new services that take advantage of devices being mobile, interactive, and always available.
Traditionally, there has been a big gulf between the functionality of featurephones and the smartphones; however, there is an emerging category of devices that will provide the functionality of a smartphone for the price of a feature phone. Though the average selling price or the ASP of the smartphone has been dropping, the price is still high for a significant majority of the global subscriber base. Consumers who are looking for a sub $50 device still want to the access applications such as Facebook, Twitter, Google search, and make VoIP calls, etc.
In this paper, we will look at the opportunity to attract the 91% of the global user base into the mobile data ecosystem. We will quantify the opportunity, examine what this opportunity means to the mobile value chain specifically to the mobile operators and discuss the success factors to accelerate the migration of non-active data users into the data realm.
CTIA 2009 Roundup April 6, 2009
Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, ARPU, BRIC, CTIA, Carriers, Devices, European Wireless Market, IP, Indian Wireless Market, International Trade, Japan Wireless Market, Location Based Services, Mergers and Acquisitions, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Search, Mobile TV, Mobile Usability, Speaking Engagements, Strategy, US Wireless Market, Unified Messaging, Wi-Fi, WiMax, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 1 comment so farCTIA 2009 Roundup
http://www.chetansharma.com/ctia2009.htm
CTIA provided a boost to the Las Vegas economy by hosting the 2009 International CTIA in the sin city. Prior to the show, we knew that the attendance will be down due to the economy and it was clear from day 1 that it will be a less busy event. Attendance was probably down 30-40%, Exhibitors seemed down by a good percentage as well with many opting for meeting rooms instead or skipping the show altogether. The big double story compounds were downgraded to smaller fields. Samsung and LG didn’t plaster the town with massive banners, taxis weren’t covered in advertisements. It was not all bad though, the probability of being trampled by humans reduced, taxi lines were shorter (though no less annoying) and the quality of the show was still pretty good. We had a jam packed schedule. This note summarizes the observations from the show.
Numbers CTIA released its semi-annual numbers. For 2008: 270M subscribers, $148 billion in service revenues, $32 billion in data revenues (just for reference, this is more than the total global Hollywood box-office revenue which came in at $28B), 2.2 trillion in MOU, 1 trillion TXT messages. You can checkout our annual US data market analysis which was released last month here.
Etech Contest – Prior to the event, CTIA invited us to judge the Emerging Technology Contest. It was fun reviewing the various entries. The award winners are announced here. Congrats to all.
My CTIA started early with a couple of sessions at the pre-conference event - BRIC Mobile Market Summit. The quality of the discussion was pretty good. I gave a talk on the Opportunities in the Indian and Chinese mobile markets and discussed where the opportunities in these two fastest growing markets as well as dispel some myths that engulf most companies.
After that, I joined the panel with other experts in the industry to have a lengthy discussion of the trends and opportunities in these markets including Latin America.
Unfortunately, our workshop on “Monetizing Mobile User Generated Content” got canceled due to low attendance or maybe folks are just not interested in monetizing these days. I will be discussing some of the similar themes in my talk at the NAB Show (MES) in Vegas on 22nd April. I will also be moderating a panel on Innovations in Mobile Experiences.
If interested, clients of Chetan Sharma Consulting can request the slides from any of the talks.
Themes: The main themes of the conference were: Broadband (primarily around 4G and LTE with sprinkles of WiMAX) and data usage, Green, Mobile Health, Appstores, Rich Communication and Social Networking.
Broadband
4G – My first 4G project was back in 2003 for NTT DoCoMo when 4G didn’t even enter industry’s vernacular. Most operators were figuring out their 3G strategies. Six years hence, we have come a long way. Broadband, 4G, and LTE were the core themes of the conference and there was visible progress from the last CTIA with more test results, actual devices, and real demos. While the current reports suggest that some form of deployment will take place in 2010, we don’t expect the “real” commercial deployments before 2011, LTE voice will even take longer. So, where does this leave WiMAX. With each passing day, the role of WiMAX as a niche technology is affirmed. The backhaul bottleneck problem is also becoming prominent and the enhancement of backhaul is behind the RF infrastructure to provide any substantive improvements in data throughputs at least in the near future.
I will be moderating a panel on 4G at Future in Review (FiRE) conference considered by Economist the best Tech conference on the planet (panelists include executives from Telstra, Qualcomm, Clearwire, and others) to get delve deeper into the evolution of 4G.
The Broadband Stimulus – Many companies are eying the $8B broadband stimulus package. The process of how they are going to be granted seems chaotic with unintended consequences. My feeling is that it is a lost opportunity. Instead of just looking at incremental enhancements, US could have been bold and improved existing and new broadband deployments by over 50-60 times. (More discussion here)
Mobile Health
Keynotes – I thought Dr. Eric Topol, Director, Scripps gave perhaps the most effective keynote addresses in recent memory. Keynotes are generally a drab affair. Instead of inspiring through vision many put the audience to sleep with their product announcements. Dr. Topol’s speech was so rich in content, his words were filled with such passion, and his articulation was so inspiring that most entrepreneurs in the room were energized to make a difference. I commend CTIA for inviting him. He is joining Qualcomm’s Don Jones (a fierce proponent of mHealth) and others to form the first ever Wireless Health Institute in San Diego. Expect some really cool stuff to come out of them. However, to be most effective, health institutions need to get on board with the program starting with the simplest of things like “txt messages.” Come on folks, move into the 21st century!
Health – For the first time, there was significant discussion on mobile’s impact on the health care industry. My masters is in Biomedical Engineering so it is great to see the marriage between the two industries. I strongly believe if we can get past some of the bureaucratic nonsense, mobile can have a significant lasting impact on the quality of life and healthcare in both the developing and developed nations. Some of the stuff is really amazing (iBrain, iPill, iShoe, you get the picture). I will have more discussion on the subject in the coming days.
Applications and Services
You say appstore, I say appworld, you say market, I say marketplace – I have been working on appstores for so long that I can’t help but be amused by the recent frenzy of appstores sprouting like mushrooms. I think overall it is good for the industry as each of the providers will push each other in areas of innovation and pricing models thus opening up the industry for developers and consumers. However, the fragmentation also increases as a result and something has to give because developer’s attention and resources are finite. There aren’t many companies who can pull-off a successful developer program (this is one area where Microsoft has some advantage because of significant experience in cultivating developers). Apple’s model has already forced carriers to accelerate their short-term and long-term strategies. T-Mobile USA saw the writing on the wall earlier than most and is further along in its plans. Current implementations are still quite primitive with much potential for improvement.
Rich Communication – Talked to some companies (Aylus, Ericsson, Alcatel-Lucent, etc.) about rich communication services that integrate various experiences on the mobile device including chat, voice, data, social networking, video, etc., onto a single screen. The user experience is enhanced leading to newer sources of revenues for operators.
Netbooks also seem to be on operator roadmaps with 33% of these devices expected to be sold through the carrier channels in 3 years. Will Nokia and Motorola get active in this space? Or will the new entrants use netbooks to enter the phone market? Inspired by Kindle, many players are getting bolder and investing in application specific devices (a trend we wrote about in our mobile advertising book last year). Examples: a cool new wireless video game console – Zeebo being launched in Brazil and nuvifone being launched by Garmin and Asus.
Mobile Social Networking – Some interesting social networking features and functions are coming down the line. I am convinced that carriers need to treat social networking as a core service rather than a bolt on application. I almost wrote a book “The Facebook Effect” but 3 books in a year were too many so taking a break for now. (Maybe the next one will be “The Twitter Effect”).
Mobile Advertising – Though we have been involved with several mobile advertising projects, at the show, it felt the segment excitement was quite flat and many companies are struggling to stay in business. The consolidation hasn’t come yet but things are likely to start changing in the next few months. I also think that industry needs to start thinking about much more compelling and engaging closed-loop creative experiences rather than just impressions. Also, third party verification is needed (who is going to step up?). Finally, the role of the mediation layer is becoming important. The real substantive announcement came before CTIA with four major US operators agreeing to collaborate on best practices. Kudos to MMA for orchestrating the agreement.
Green
Green is the new black – With so much focus on cleantech and global warming, vendors are stepping up and making a dent in the carbon put out by the industry. There were some really cool solar chargeable devices as well as applications that keep the users green-aware. Being green is a competitive advantage.
Miscellaneous
Devices – The quality of devices that coming out keeps getting better. Stuff coming out from Samsung, LG, and INQ is pretty darn cool (Motorola, Nokia, Palm have some good stuff coming out as well). There were some neat concept phones on display as well (I know, I know, we are ways out but I think we will see some of these come to light sooner than we think). I thought one of the coolest new device was from LG – GD900 with transparent keypad. Samsung’s DLNA and AMOLED based devices were also quite good. They were also showing the WiMAX Smartphone Mondi. ZTE is also planning to enter the US market in a big way. While new Androids were hard to spot, several of them are scheduled to be released in the next few months.
NTT DoCoMo – Each CTIA, I love spending time in DoCoMo’s booth as they are always at the cutting edge of what’s to come. Downloading your digital key to your handset to open your hotel room by waving your phone, controlling every piece of equipment in your home via your cell phone, i-concier: your friendly on-screen butler, separable phones were some of the highlights.
Best booth: Most Creative – SpinVox, Most Hip – LG
Interesting companies – While it is difficult to meet each of the upcoming startups, couple of companies caught our attention: Waze out of Israel with its crowd-sourcing based approach to real-time traffic information and Kovio with its ability to lower the cost of printed silicon.
3G connection – My 3G connection was so good throughout the show that I didn’t need to lug my laptop around and did 100% of my communications for 3 days from my phone.
Your feedback is always welcome.
Thanks
Chetan
Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this note are our clients.
Understanding the wireless opportunities in the world’s top two markets - China and India March 23, 2009
Posted by chetan in : BRIC, CTIA, Carriers, IP, IP Strategy, Indian Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 3 commentsThe first time I spoke on the topic of Opportunities in the BRIC Mobile Markets in a conference setting was back in the summer of 2006 in Moscow at the inaugural Interop conference. At the time, BRIC mobile markets were just emerging to be a big force. Net adds in the four countries amounted to 159M in 2005, in 2008, just India and China exceeded 212M. In the first two months of this year, India alone has added over 28M subscriptions. We were amongst the first ones to forecast this tremendous growth that was going to shake up the global mobile markets.
We summarized our observations in the special report for the Wireless World magazine.
Fast forward 3 years. I am putting together another presentation on the subject focused on India and China and the mobile opportunities in these markets. Interesting enough, some of the basics remain the same, and they have more to do with Business 101 than anything else.
The lure of a billion subscribers is quite tempting but these markets are not for the faint-hearted. If you go in without understanding the markets and how business is done, you will be spit out of the market in no time. The fate is similar for big and powerful players like Vodafone to small startups you may have never heard from. Companies like Real Networks who have had success worldwide learned the hard way that these markets are no walk in the park.
Here are some of the factors, IMHO, that any company needs to keep in mind before spending too much energy in these markets. They are:
Understand the market by spending time on the ground: Many a times, companies think they can enter the market from a distance, parachute some executives, and things will fall in place. Rarely are things that simple. One must spend time in the markets with potential customers, suppliers, partners, analysts, and others to get a “real” grip of the market.
Perseverance: The customers in India and China can wear you down and if you have the enough strength to last long, you are likely to be rewarded. That’s one of the reasons, even some of the stronger players didn’t succeed but smaller players like Venturi Wireless (Disclosure: VW is a client of ours) have done well with carriers in these markets.
Build Relationships: Relationships and trust matters more in Asia than in the western markets. If you have spent enough time building relationships with key companies, suppliers, individuals, it might take a long time, but in the end, that’s are what is likely to pay off.
IP Protection: IP has a different meaning in these markets. It is not enough to just file patents, technology must also be protected or else the probability of it being copied are high.
Hire local: To be successful, it is rare that you can manage and operate from afar. It is not only inefficient, it is also a risky proposition. You have to be close to the customer. Hiring local talent who understands how business is done and when “yes” actually means “yes” is critically important.
I will be discussing these and other areas in my talk at the BRIC Mobile Markets conference at CTIA on 31st March.
Laser: The Inventor, the Nobel Laureate, and the 30 year patent war November 13, 2008
Posted by chetan in : IP, IP Strategy , 1 comment so far
Extensive travels over the past few weeks has afforded me the opportunity to catch-up on my reading. One of the books i recently finished was Laser: The Inventor, the Nobel Laureate, and the 30 year patent war by Nick Taylor. If you are an inventor or have anything to do with patents, or just want to understand the intricacies of the legal system, this book is highly recommended. I deal with patents and IP all the time so found the narrative especially engaging.
Nick Taylor has done a superb job of capturing the life and Gordon Gould, a young scientist who invented Laser but couldn’t quite get the credit for more than 30 years. He eventually prevailed towards the end of his life. His story is inspiring and just breathtakingly fascinating. It was so captivating that I didn’t want my flight to land until I had finished the book. The details captured by Nick are so fine that it makes you feel you have a front seat of the drama that unfolded over the course of three decades. It has a good ending as well. Good and honesty prevailed. I am surprised no one has made a movie out of his life.
New Book: Enterprise Mobility: Applications, Technologies and Strategies August 24, 2008
Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, ARPU, BRIC, Carriers, Enterprise Mobility, European Wireless Market, IP, IP Strategy, Indian Wireless Market, Japan Wireless Market, Location Based Services, MVNO, Mergers and Acquisitions, Messaging, Microsoft Mobile, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Search, Mobile TV, Mobile Usability, Mobile Users, Mobile Wallet, Networks, Patent Strategies, Patent Strategy, Patents, Privacy, Smart Phones, Strategy, US Wireless Market, Unified Messaging, Wi-Fi, WiMax, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 2 comments
Enterprise Mobility: Applications, Technologies and Strategies
IOS Press
Chapter Contribution
“Enterprise mobile product strategy using scenario planning”
SAMIMUNEER (SAP) and CHETANSHARMA
http://www.chetansharma.com/enterprise_mobility_scenario_planning.htm
Each year, we work on strategies and product plans for our clients around the world that end up touching millions of consumers worldwide and do behind-the-scenes research, due-diligence, and analysis work on several critical deals and transactions that move our industry forward. But, rarely do we talk or write about them, due to obvious reasons.
However, last year, I got an opportunity to briefly write about some of the strategy work. On the request of Dr. Basole at Georgia Tech, my colleague Sami Muneer (Sr. Director, Enabling Solutions at SAP – responsible for all things mobile) and I drew from some of the long-term strategy and product planning work we had done for SAP to put together a paper on “Enterprise mobile product strategy using scenario planning.” SAP is the leading global enterprise player and their view of the world is both comprehensive and long-term. It was a privilege to work with their global team on the project.
Our paper is being published as a chapter in the just released book “Enterprise Mobility: Applications, Technologies and Strategies” (IOS Press, Amsterdam. 272 pages, Editor R. Basole, 2008) as part of The Tennenbaum Institute Series on Enterprise Systems. The chapter is also being published in the special issue of peer-reviewed International Knowledge Systems Management (IKSM) journal published by Georgia Tech.
The book is a collection of 13 chapters from academics and practitioners in enterprise mobility. I often use scenario planning techniques when doing long-term strategic assessment and forecasting. In this chapter, we hope to provide a framework for scenario planning in mobile that can go across verticals, applications, and services.
You can download the chapter here.
IKSM is making available all the chapters online (for free) if you register for a free one year subscription.
For those interested in reading the paper copy can order the book here.
Book Introduction
As the number of enterprises using mobile ICT increases, it becomes imperative to have a more complete understanding of what value and impact enterprise mobility has, what drives and enables it, and in what ways it can and will transform the nature and practices of work, organizational cultures, business processes, supply chains, enterprises, and potentially entire markets. Enterprise mobility is therefore a topic of great interest to both scholars and practitioners. Enterprise Mobility: Researching a new paradigm aims to contribute to and extend both our theoretical and practical understanding of enterprise mobility by exploring the necessary strategic, technological, and economic considerations, adoption and implementation motivators and inhibitors, usage contexts, social implications, human-centered design issues, support requirements, and transformative impacts. The main objective is to discuss applications, technologies, strategies, theories, frameworks, contexts, case studies, and analyses that provide insights into the growing reality of enterprise mobility for scholars and practicing managers. This volume contains thirteen articles from leading scholars and practitioners and includes an examination of the changing nature of work, work practices, and the work environment; a discussion of critical enablers of enterprise mobility; authors exploring strategic considerations; and insightful case studies of enterprise mobility across multiple domains. Together, the articles explore enterprise mobility across the entire continuum.
Enterprise mobile product strategy using scenario planning
Author(s): Sami Muneer and Chetan Sharma
The Mobile industry is changing at a rapid pace and so is the behavior of enterprise workforce which uses mobile technologies. When planning for a long-term product roadmap, one has to consider a myriad of evolution trends and forecasts to determine the probable list of product functionality and their introduction timing in the lifecycle of the product. One has to look at the technology trends by market, the competitive landscape, and the mobile worker adoption trends. However, one can only come up with a prioritized list of capabilities by taking into context the company’s own core competencies, skill sets, and overall mission. This paper looks at how mobile product companies can use scenario-planning methodology to formulate their product strategy and roadmap.
The listing of the chapters is as follows:
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Enterprise mobility: Researching a new paradigm
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The convergence of wireless, mobility, and the Internet and its relevance to enterprises
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Business mobility: A changing ecosystem
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A socio-technical perspective of mobile work
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Designing productive spaces for mobile workers: Role insights from network analysis
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Telecommuting and corporate culture: Implications for the mobile enterprise
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User requirements of mobile technology: A summary of research results
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Mobile interaction design: Integrating individual and organizational perspectives
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A comparative anatomy of mobile enterprise applications: Towards a framework of software reuse
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Protecting data on mobile devices: A taxonomy of security threats to mobile computing and review of applicable defenses
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Enterprise mobility and support outsourcing: A research model and initial findings
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Enterprise mobile product strategy using scenario planning
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The strategic value of enterprise mobility: Case study insights
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Exploring enterprise mobility: Lessons from the field
Your feedback is always welcome.
Thanks.
Chetan Sharma
Inside the USPTO: A Guide to the Patenting Process April 30, 2008
Posted by chetan in : AORTA, IP, IP Strategy, Intellectual Property, International Trade, M&A, Mergers and Acquisitions, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Patent Strategies, Patent Strategy, Patents, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a commentInside the USPTO: A Guide to the Patenting Process
by Carlos Villamar and Chetan Sharma
http://www.chetansharma.com/insidetheuspto.htm
Note: We have an integrated approach to strategy as we strongly believe that taking market research, business, technology, and intellectual property inputs into strategic initiatives is essential in obtaining a long-term sustainable competitive advantage in the industry. To further the dialogue on the subject, we will be publishing several articles, white papers, books, and blog posts over the course of next few months. This white paper is to help entrepreneurs and inventors understand the patenting process.
This white paper was a collaboration with Carlos Villamar, Partner, Roberts Mlotkowski Safran & Cole. Carlos is a patent attorney who has also worked as a patent examiner at the USPTO.
Abstract
Patents are a key corporate asset that can give the inventor and the company an invaluable tool to protect and commercialize inventions. The process of obtaining a patent is an important one from start to finish. Beginning with patent strategy, due-diligence and patent search through the United States Patent Office (USPTO) process to finally getting the grant, one needs to have a good understanding of each step. This increases the probability of success by removing uncertainty from the process. Inside the USPTO: A guide to the patenting process takes a detailed look at the ideation and the patent process, specifically, how patent applications flow through the USPTO. By having a good grasp of the intermediate steps and the various decision points associated with each of them, the paper discusses how entrepreneurs and inventors can maximize their chances of securing a patent.
Introduction
We live in a knowledge economy and Intellectual Property is a key asset in this new ecosystem. Patents are one of the essential elements to creating barriers to entry for rivals, building credibility and confidence of investors, customers, partners, and employees, providing clarity as to the property ownership, demanding leverage from the industry, and for generating revenue from licensing and sale.
The knowledge economy thrives and sustains on ideas and competitive advantage based on intellectual property. For individuals, the prestige associated with being an innovator and first to secure patents in a given field motivates them to be creative and innovative. Entrepreneurs, engineers, and inventors can benefit from understanding how to secure and maintain their intellectual property rights. This paper discusses the important steps in designing, filing, procuring, and defending your patent rights.
The following diagram illustrates at a high-level the patenting process and important considerations in the decision flow chart. The flow chart is discussed in detail in the subsequent sections.
Table of Contents
| Abstract | 3 |
| Introduction | 4 |
| Pre filing due diligence | 6 |
| Patent preparation | 9 |
| USPTO filing | 11 |
| USPTO examination | 13 |
| After approval | 16 |
| Conclusions and Recommendations | 17 |
Download the full white paper here.
Your feedback is always welcome.
Coming Soon: Inside the USPTO - A guide to the patenting process April 29, 2008
Posted by chetan in : IP, IP Strategy, Patent Strategies, Patent Strategy, Patents , add a comment
Abstract
Patents are a key corporate asset that can give the inventor and the company an invaluable tool to protect and commercialize the inventions. The process of obtaining a patent is an important one from start to finish. Beginning with patent strategy, due-diligence and patent search through the United States Patent Office (USPTO) process to finally getting the grant, one needs to have a good understanding of each step to increase the probability of success and thus remove uncertainty from the process. Inside the USPTO: A guide to the patenting process takes a look the ideation and the patent process from start to finish, specifically, how patent applications flow through the USPTO. By having a good grasp of the intermediate steps and the various decision points associated with each of them, the paper discusses how entrepreneurs and inventors can maximize their chances of securing a patent.
Inside the USPTO: An In-Depth look at the art of securing a patent April 18, 2008
Posted by chetan in : IP, IP Strategy, Patent Strategies, Patent Strategy, Patents , add a comment
As some of you know, I work extensively in the Intellectual Property Space. Over the past few weeks, I have been collaborating with a good friend and colleague of mine - Carlos Villamar, Partner at Roberts Mlotkowski Safran & Cole in Washington DC on a paper that takes an in-depth look at the processes and strategies required to secure a patent. In his past life, Carlos was a patent examiner with the USPTO so his insights have been very valuable.
We will be releasing the paper in early May. Stay Tuned.
