Always On Real-Time Access

Tracking the AORTA evolution

• Home
• About
• Chetan Sharma Consulting
• Mobile Advertising Book
• Wireless Broadband Book

US Wireless Data Market Update - Q2 2008 August 10, 2008

Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, ARPU, BRIC, CTIA, Carriers, Devices, Enterprise Mobility, European Wireless Market, Indian Wireless Market, Japan Wireless Market, Location Based Services, M&A, Mergers and Acquisitions, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Search, Mobile Usability, Smart Phones, Speaking Engagements, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 4 comments

 

 

Download PDF (2.5 MB)

Download PPT (1.5 MB)

http://www.chetansharma.com/usmarketupdateq208.htm

The US wireless data market grew 40% in Q208 compared to Q207 to reach $8.2B in data revenues. The total for 2008 stands at $15.7B for the first six months, 38% higher than the total for the same time period in 2007. The news of Alltel acquisition, iPhone 3G, and the flat rate pricing wars dominated the news. Though the infatuation for iPhone was a few degrees lower, Apple managed to keep the device front and center of the news cycles. US again exceeded Japan in mobile data service revenues for the quarter and the market is on track to reach $34B in data revenues for 2008.

• The US Wireless data service revenues grew 8.6% Q/Q to $8.2B in Q208. Compared to Q107, the data service revenues grew 40%.
• Overall ARPU increased by $0.46. Average voice ARPU declined by $0.05 while average data ARPU grew by $0.50 or 5%.
• Verizon lead in data ARPU with $12.58 (or 24.41% of the revenues) closely followed by Sprint at $12 (or 21.4354%), AT&T at $11.59 (or 22.91%) and T-Mobile at $8.60 (or 17%).
• The strongest growth in Q208 came from Verizon with 13% increase in data revenues from Q108. Verizon generated an industry record $2.6B in data revenues closely followed by AT&T at $2.5B. Both AT&T and Verizon are on target to exceed $10B in data revenues for the year for the first time by any operator worldwide besides NTT DoCoMo (the two US carriers are already close to 50% of the target). AT&T and Verizon now account for 62% of the market data services revenues. Sprint reversed its decline in data revenues during last quarter to increase its data revenues by 3% in Q208. T-Mobile registered a 5% uptick.
• The average industry % contribution of data to service revenues exceeded 21% and now stands at 21.41%. A year ago, the % contribution stood at approximately 17%.
• The number of data subscribers has been on the rise with Verizon leading the way. At the end of Q208, Verizon had that 49.6M (or 72%) data subscribers. Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile subscribers joined to send over 169 Billion text messages in Q208 translating into almost a message every 2 hours or so. This compared to users in Philippines where average routinely surpasses a message every hour.
• In terms of net-adds, Verizon continued to lead with 1.5M net-adds again edging AT&T by 200K subscribers for the quarter.
• For the first time, T-Mobile USA entered the top 10 rankings of global mobile operators by data revenues replacing SK Telecom which suffered decline for the second straight quarter. In fact, SKT got pushed to the 12th spot by Orange France. The top three US carriers again maintained their respective rankings amongst the top 10 global carriers in terms of data revenues. For the quarter, Verizon, AT&T, and Sprint Nextel stood at #4, 5, and 6 respectively with Verizon and AT&T closing in on China Mobile (2nd) and KDDI (3rd). AT&T and Verizon are in the select group of five global operators who are now generating $2B or more in data revenues/quarter (the other three are NTT DoCoMo, China Mobile, and KDDI).
• Non-messaging continues to grab 50-60% of the data revenues for the US carriers.
• The flat-rate pricing movement that was started by Willcom in Japan which moved to Europe started to enter the US market with industry wide flat-rate pricing plans that included data. Sprint has been the most aggressive with its “Simply Everything” plans that include data services. 30% of its $100 plan is assigned to data revenues (for accounting purposes).
• Q208 saw the blockbuster acquisition of Alltel by Verizon which is likely to close by end of the year. The $28B acquisition will catapult Verizon ahead of AT&T in total number of subscribers by a big margin (10M or so) and make it a leader in almost all major categories.
• There continues to be tremendous activity in the area of Mobile Advertising. AdInfuse, Admob, Amobee, Millennial Media, Nokia, Rhythm New Media, Yahoo, and others ran compelling campaigns. There was also meaningful activity on the carrier front with industry wide initiatives.

• Venture money experienced a decline into the mobile sector. During the first half of the year, private wireless companies announced $1.8B in 173 financings, compared to $2.7B in 209 financings for the same time period last year. (Source: Rutberg)
• Nokia eclipsed 100M unit sale in Q208 for the fifth straight quarter. It sold over 122M handsets in Q208 (out of the total 297M), almost as many as the next four combined. Nokia’s global market share edged past 41%. Samsung at 15%, Motorola with 9.5%, LG with 9.3% and Sony Ericsson with 8% rounded out the top five. For the year, the industry looks to again eclipse the 1 billion handset mark for 2008
• 3G penetration in the US went past 30% in Q208, with Verizon leading the pack with over 60% 3G subscriber penetration compared to 25% 3G subscriber penetration at AT&T. T-Mobile is slowly expanding its 3G coverage. 3G subs have over $23 in data ARPU. These trends are expected and the diffusion of mobile broadband will continue to create new opportunities and revenues for the ecosystem.
• Apple announced a 3G iPhone in June and launched an aggressive expansion plan to reach 70+ countries. The broadband and appstore capabilities are quite attractive to consumers and it shows. VPN and direct access to Exchange will get many more users into the mix and IT folks less apprehensive. The clearcut business model of 30/70 split is also attractive. Apple is likely to announce in Sept (may wait for its quarterly results in Oct) that it has reached the 10M goal for iPhone.
• Feeling the threat from Apple and Google, Nokia bought the remaining portion of Symbian and announced the plan to open-source the OS, making things interesting in the wireless ecosystem. It puts Microsoft on the defensive and will be forced to reduce its licensing fee per device closer to zero. While Apple basked in the glow of iPhone 2.0, Google spent time swatting rumors of Android delay. Giving the changing dynamics in the industry, Google might be forced to play its gPhone hand earlier than it had anticipated.
• After raising $14.5B from friends and family, Clearwire’s net-adds dropped in Q208. It needs to get its content and handset strategy in place in short-order.
• In a sign of convergence battles to come, T-Mobile’s @Home and Sprint’s Femto cell initiatives started to take hold. Cable operators are also aggressively seeking triple-play by providing the wireless component of the service.

Global update

• China and India added approximately 52M subscriptions combined in Q208 with China marginally edging out India. For the year, both countries have added almost identical number of subscriptions (53M). By comparison, US added 7.5M for the same time period.
• NTT DoCoMo continues to dominate the wireless data revenues rankings with almost $3.4B in data services revenue in Q208. Almost 40% of its revenue now comes from data services. DoCoMo also crossed 84% in 3G penetration in Q208 and is expected to cross 90% by early 2009.
• Most of the major carriers around the world have double digit percentage contribution to their overall ARPU from data services. Operators like KDDI, DoCoMo, and O2 UK are consistently topping 30%.

          More details in our worldwide wireless data market update in our Global Wireless Data Market Update Sept 2008.

Your feedback is always welcome.

Thanks.

Chetan Sharma

Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this note are our clients.

Interview with Ravi Venkatesan - Chairman, Microsoft India August 5, 2008

Posted by chetan in : BRIC, Enterprise Mobility, Indian Wireless Market, Mergers and Acquisitions, Microsoft Mobile, Smart Phones, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment

Innovating from, for and with India is our mantra.

PiTech is the premier technology magazine for the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) alums and community. I had the opportunity to interview Ravi Venkatesan - Chairman, Microsoft India for the July 2008 issue of PiTech that celebrates 50 years of IIT Bombay. Below is the interview in its entirety.

You can read the entire issue here.

 

 

Ravi Venkatesan, Chairman, Microsoft Corporation India Pvt. Ltd.

Ravi Venkatesan, Chairman, Microsoft India is responsible for Microsoft�s marketing, operational and business development efforts in the country. In partnership with the leaders of Microsoft�s other business units, Venkatesan provides a single point of leadership for the company, playing an integral role in defining Microsoft�s relationship with policy makers, customers and business partners across Microsoft�s six distinct business units in India namely: Microsoft Corporation India (Pvt) Ltd, the Marketing Subsidiary, Microsoft India Development Center, Microsoft Global Technical Support Centre, Microsoft Global Development Center India, Microsoft Global Services India and Microsoft Research India.

Prior to joining Microsoft, Venkatesan worked for over seventeen years with Cummins Inc, a US-based designer, manufacturer and distributor of engines and related technologies. He served in various leadership capacities at Cummins including Chairman of Cummins India Limited and Managing Director of Tata Cummins Limited, a joint venture between Cummins Inc. and Tata Motors. His biggest contribution at Cummins was leading the transformation of Cummins in India into the leading provider of power solutions and the largest manufacturer of automotive engines in the country.

Venkatesan has a BS in Mechanical Engineering from the Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay (1985), an MS in Industrial Engineering from Purdue University (1986) and a MBA from Harvard University (1992) where he was a Baker Scholar. Ravi was awarded Purdue University’s Outstanding  Industrial  Engineer  award  for  the  year 2000  and  the Distinguished  Alumnus  award  by  the  Indian  Institute  of Technology in  2003.

Venkatesan is a member of the Executive Council of NASSCOM, the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), a Director on the Board of Thermax Ltd and a member of the Advisory Council of the Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay and IIIT-Bangalore. He has contributed frequently to the Harvard Business Review and some of his articles include, “Strategic Sourcing - to Make or Not to Make” and “The Strategy that Wouldn’t Travel.”

His interests include reading, travel, classical music and philanthropy.

~ ~ ~

What are some of the problems that our industry hasn�t solved? What�s holding us back?

At first, in many ways India is the centre of the IT world today and the credit only goes to the huge amount of talent that we have. However, for all the expertise that we have in IT, there is a huge underserved market in India.

The IT uptake in the domestic market has been limited. With all the challenges that lie ahead of us as a nation, are it access to education, or market access for small business or even transparency and accountability in governance, technology has the potential to solve these but we have never really applied ourselves to it. We have largely focused our energies on the global market.

The fact remains, for India to continue the economic growth it has seen in the last three years, it is imperative for us to work towards addressing these issues.

What are the key ingredients of a strategy to outsmart competition?

The only way to stay ahead in the game is to focus on the customer. You have to hear and concentrate on the spoken and unspoken needs of consumer. Take for instance the success Apple has enjoyed with iPod. It�s not a technological innovation but a brilliant execution of an innate need of a customer, connecting the device and the online music service, which had never been clearly articulated. Much like the Walkman a few decades ago. Or X Box live. We realized people were not looking to just enjoy the game in their living rooms but also wanted to play with the best of the best, whoever they may be and anywhere they may be. And in addressing that need, we were able to close the gap on Sony.

How can technology companies better understand the needs of customers?

If we can balance the obsession with our products with an obsession for our customers and really listen to them, and listen to them not only before the sale but even post the sale, it will make all the difference.

Simplistic as it may sound, it all boils down to be less internally focused and ensure our people are walking in the shoes of our customers.

How do you see PC computing evolving over the next 5-10 years?

If you look at the emerging new world of work and lifestyle, an always connected environment where users want to access data from wherever and at any time, one can safely talk about the emergence of non PC devices as the center piece of the digital era.

Likewise as technology is increasingly deployed for the next five billion and we think about enabling people in various scenarios, one will have to innovate to enable access for them. That will lead to evolution in the modality of interaction.

For instance, we will need to address issues of language and literacy, which means changes in text user interfaces, vision and speech recognition. Essentially, the devices will be more intelligent. Not only will they recognize our voice, but they’ll recognize our intent, take intelligent actions and follow commands. This means display technology will also have to evolve quite dramatically Concepts like surface computing, automotive computing and mobile computing will really become a big-big phenomenon.

Another interesting dimension will be the integration of TV software & PC software for connected-home consumer experiences across devices. IPTV will become pervasive with the integration of end-to-end multimedia and video solutions.

Needless to say, all of this will be accompanied by a fundamental re-architecting of the microprocessor. As per Moore�s law, multi-core computers will play a vital role in ushering in supercomputing.

What are some of the key �big-picture� initiatives at Microsoft?

As we all know, there are Two India�s. One is the global corporate India which is every bit as sophisticated as any other company globally. As productive, efficient and technology savvy as anyone else. And we see ourselves as partners to them and in their growth.

Then there is the other India, to be precise 2/3^rd of it which is at the risk of being left behind. Ironically at one level technology can be the divider. But it is also pretty much the most significant bridge to ensure an inclusive socio economic growth for the underserved India.

Over the last couple of years the focus has intensified in three areas and is aligned with the overall national agenda:

At first Investment in human capital both by way of education and skills has been and will continue to be a key focus area. IT is key, both as a subject of study and as the key facilitator in providing affordable access to education and skills.

Secondly, as we work towards addressing the unique scenarios of our country, it is obvious we and the entire ecosystem will need to innovate. We have to create a relevant enabling environment and that requires innovation at all levels.

Last but not the least it is important to sustain the current growth of the Indian economy and create appropriate jobs and opportunities for the growing young population of our country. Again IT plays a dual role of both as a facilitator and a key provider.

And in this commitment to realize the �Unlimited Potential�, we run several initiatives in the country such as:

Project Shiksha for accelerating IT literacy and enhancing the classroom environment among government schools across the country. We have already covered over 1,10,000 school teachers and impacted the lives of over 4 million students.

Project Bhasha for promoting local language computing wherein we have tried to break down one of the barriers by providing local language interface packs for Microsoft products in 14 Indian languages.

Project Jyoti which provides lifelong learning for adults in rural communities especially women through Community Technology Learning Centers. Run in partnership with NGOs we have already impacted the lives of several women who in many instances have now become bread earners for their families or simply gained social esteem and confidence and are leading examples for women�s empowerment in their communities.

Project Vikas to enhance the global competitiveness of the SMEs by IT enablement. Run in partnership with the national manufacturing council it entails a five year action plan to help the Indian SMEs address their �soft� challenges of market access, knowledge networks and enablement of supply chain linkages in the cluster ecosystem. We have successfully seen the first phase of deployment in three sectors: Tripur (textiles), Pune (auto components) and Ahmedabad (pharmaceuticals)

In addition to all the innovative work we do at our own business units, we also work with the Indian SI, ISV and developer community to build a robust software product ecosystem in India. We are engaged with them to support them on quality, technology roadmap, business skills and mentoring, venture capital funding and provide all the end to end tools to become commercially successful. It is towards our quest of �Made in India� software.

But at all times we are aware of the need to deliver affordable PC solutions and that is central to our India mission of building a digitally inclusive society. So over and above the special licensing for the government and academic community, we have in place a �Good-Better-Best� segment approach. Essentially, different SKUs with different levels of functionality and therefore differentiated prices. Good example is Windows Vista Starter Edition, specially designed to spur PC usage in India it is the lowest cost Microsoft offering available today.

Or innovative models of delivery, such as the �pay-as-you-go� business model enabled by our flex go technology. It uses the familiarity and flexibility of prepaid mobile phones and applies it to personal computer, bringing down the entry barrier of costs for PC ownership.

Like I have said before, Innovation is key. Innovation in product, business models, solutions and services.

What technology (ies) is Microsoft building specifically for India?

India is the only subsidiary outside of the US where Microsoft has an end-to-end presence of its entire product lifecycle right from research to product development to support. The large talent pool is naturally empathetic to the needs and problems of our fellow citizens. Therefore we can explore various technology, tools, solutions and services which are relevant not just to India but all emerging markets. As a result we are �Inspired by India� we therefore we �Innovate for India�.

Take the example of Microsoft Research India. It is one of the premier industrial research labs globally and as of March 2007, MSR India had already published more than 60 papers in leading international journals and conferences. While it focuses in areas including Cryptography, Security, Digital Geographics, Mobility and Multilingual Systems, it is the work they do for Emerging Markets is very heart warming.

Take MultiPoint - a simple yet powerful technology which will enable multiple children to share a single PC using multiple mice. For the purposes of primary education, it can multiply the benefit of a single computer by three, four, five, or more.

Equally inspiring is Digital StudyHall (DSH), an independent research project primarily supported by Microsoft Research, which aims to overcome both the problems of staff shortage and availability of standardized study material among underserved communities.

Simply put, it records and distributes DVDs of subject classes led by India�s best grassroots teachers. Underserved areas can access the DSH database via DVDs, while areas that are more developed will be able to access the content via the Internet.

Some other areas it is working on and very relevant to scenarios like India is Text Free User Interface to overcome the language barrier or the Split Screen UIs to multiply benefits for small businesses.

The Microsoft development centre which does end to end product development for Microsoft globally and contributes significantly to all our products, is also incubating technologies which will make computing more, far more intuitive and integrated with entertainment and therefore more compelling and more affordable.

How does India help Microsoft in the Asian markets, Global markets?

India is amongst the fastest growing markets for Microsoft both from a talent perspective and from a market perspective and it�s no surprise that we are contributing significantly to the revenues and product innovation at Microsoft corp. Our contributions are immense.

Microsoft Research, with over 50 people, is one of the premier industrial research labs globally and as of March 2007, MSR India had already published more than 60 papers in leading international journals and conferences. It focuses in six areas including Cryptography, Security, and Algorithms; Digital Geographics; Mobility Networks, and Systems, Multilingual Systems, rigorous software engineering and emerging markets and is committed to advancing the state of the art computer science research in India. It partners with a number of educational and research institutions in India and abroad to push forward the boundaries of scientific research.

The Microsoft India Development Center (MSIDC) at Hyderabad is fully integrated with the key product families of Microsoft and is the second largest MS software development center outside Redmond. It has more than 1300 employees working on over 50 products and technologies for the global Microsoft portfolio.

Team here have end-to-end responsibility on projects and cover all aspects of software development - Development, Testing and Program Management. Teams work collaboratively with Redmond on future releases of products and are constantly innovating to enhance the user experience. MSIDC is a leader in creating intellectual property from India and has filed for over 130 patents in the last two years.

The Global technical support centre, Microsoft IT and the Global consulting and services centre are also based out of India and are supporting global customers for Microsoft and contributing significantly to Microsoft revenues.

Innovating from, for and with India is our mantra.

Bellagio Presentation August 4, 2008

Posted by chetan in : 3G, ARPU, BRIC, Carriers, European Wireless Market, Indian Wireless Market, Intellectual Property, Japan Wireless Market, Location Based Services, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Search, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment

US Wireless Data Market Update - Q1 2008 May 18, 2008

Posted by chetan in : 3G, AORTA, Carriers, Enterprise Mobility, European Wireless Market, Indian Wireless Market, Intellectual Property, International Trade, Japan Wireless Market, M&A, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Search, Mobile TV, Mobile Usability, US Wireless Market, Wi-Fi, WiMax, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment

US Wireless Data Market Update - Q1 2008

Download PDF (2.32 MB)

Download PPT (1.28 MB)

http://www.chetansharma.com/usmarketupdateq108.htm

The US wireless data market grew 38% in Q108 compared to Q107 to reach $7.5B in data revenues. iPhone is not only having an impact on data revenues but also on device design, mobile advertising roadmaps, and applications and services that are being contemplated for future. US exceeded Japan in mobile data service revenues for the quarter and the market is expected to reach $34B in data revenues in 2008.

• The US Wireless data service revenues grew 7.5% Q/Q to $7.5B in Q108. Compared to Q107, the data service revenues grew 38%.
• Overall ARPU declined by $1.12 and for the first time since Q405, the average ARPU dropped more than a dollar Q/Q. Average voice ARPU declined by almost $1.50 while average data ARPU inched up by $0.49 or 5%.
• Verizon lead in data ARPU with $11.94 (or 23.37% of the revenues) closely followed by Sprint at $11.50 (or 20.54%), AT&T at $10.80 (or 21.52%) and T-Mobile at $8.50 (or 17%).
• The strongest growth in Q108 came from AT&T with 15% and 53% increase in data revenues from Q407 and Q107 respectively. Both AT&T and Verizon generated $2.3B in data revenues and are on target to exceed $10B in data revenues for the year for the first time by any operator worldwide besides NTT DoCoMo. AT&T and Verizon now account for 61% of the market data services revenues. Verizon and T-Mobile registered 10% increase in data revenues from Q407 while Sprint�s declined by 6%.
• The average industry % contribution of data to service revenues exceeded 20% and now stands at 20.62%.
• The number of data subscribers has been on the rise with Verizon leading the way. At the end of Q108, Verizon had that 48.1M (or 72%) data subscribers. Verizon and AT&T subscribers joined to send over 100 Billion text messages in Q108 translating into almost a message every 3 hours. This compared to users in Philippines where average routinely surpasses a message every hour.
• In terms of net-adds, T-Mobile was helped by SunCom acquisition and crossed the 30M subscription mark. Verizon regained its quarterly net-adds title from AT&T by edging its rival 1.5M to 1.2M. Sprint lost customers again, this time exceeding 1M. In March, the US market also slipped behind India to third position in terms of total number of subscriptions (India is predominantly a prepaid market while US is a postpaid market).
• The top three US carriers again maintained their respective rankings amongst the top 10 global carriers in terms of data revenues. For the quarter, Verizon, AT&T, and Sprint Nextel stood at #4, 5, and 6 respectively. AT&T and Verizon are in the select group of five global operators who are now generating $2B or more in data revenues/quarter (the other three are NTT DoCoMo, China Mobile, and KDDI).
• Non-messaging data revenues continue to be in the 50-60% (of the data revenues) range for the US carriers.
• The eagerly anticipated 700 MHz played out as we expected with Google doing enough to make Verizon pay more and kick-in the �open-gardens� provisions. However, the actual impact on the market dynamics is likely to be negligible. It did however, help open the �open� debate in the industry.
• There continues to be tremendous activity in the area of Mobile Advertising. While fending off the Microsoft acquisition, Yahoo is busy creating some compelling applications and is stitching together carrier deals around the world.

• Venture money continued to flow into the mobile sector with over $1.5B investment in Q108 (Source: Rutberg). Location Services, Mobile Personalization, Mobile Video, Mobile Search and Advertising, Semiconductor, Carrier infrastructure, Device design and development are hot areas.
• Nokia eclipsed 100M unit sale in Q108 for the fourth straight quarter. It sold over 115M handsets in Q108, more than the next three handset manufacturers combined. Nokia�s global market share stood at 39%. For the year, the industry looks to again eclipse the 1 billion handset mark for 2008
• 3G penetration in the US was approaching 30% in Q108, with Verizon leading the pack with over 56% 3G subscriber penetration. T-Mobile finally did its 3G launch in limited cities with plans for expansion in 08. 3G subs have over $20 in data ARPU accounting for 30% contribution to the overall ARPU from such subs. These trends are expected and the diffusion of mobile broadband will continue to create new opportunities and revenues for the ecosystem.
• Apple is slated to announce a 3G iPhone next month, has been aggressively expanding the distribution partners, and is expected to blow past the 10M unit (it is already past 5M) sale mark easily by the year-end especially as operators consider giving rebates to attract potential users and their mobile data usage.
• As expected, Clearwire and Sprint banded together to raise $14.5B from friends and family which included the likes of Google, Comcast, Time Warner and others. IF the companies can execute on their strategy in 2008/9 and get the devices out in the market without messing up with pricing, this venture can be quite disruptive to the market much more than any other open initiative.

Global update

• China and India added approximately 55M subscriptions combined in Q108 with India marginally edging out China with a whopping 10.16M net-adds in March (probably for the first time history, monthly net-adds for country have exceeded 10M). By comparison, US added 4.5M in Q1
• NTT DoCoMo continues to dominate the wireless data revenues rankings with over $3.4B in data services revenue in Q108. 35.7% of its revenue now comes from data services. DoCoMo also crossed 80% in 3G penetration in Q108 and is expected to cross 90% by early 2009.
• Most of the major carriers around the world have double digit percentage contribution to their overall ARPU from data services. Operators like KDDI, DoCoMo, and O2 UK are consistently topping 30%.

          More details in our worldwide wireless data market update in our Global Wireless Data Market   Update Mar 2008.

Your feedback is always welcome.

Chetan Sharma

Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this note are our clients.

Recap of Sacramento and Stanford events April 29, 2008

Posted by chetan in : European Wireless Market, Indian Wireless Market, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Ecosystem, Speaking Engagements, US Wireless Market, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment

I am starting to lose count of how many events I have done related to the Mobile Advertising book but each one of them has been fun as I meet new friends and colleagues and get to visit with the old ones.

Had a pretty tight iten in sunny CA last week. Warm weather of bay area was a welcome change to the cold winter of Seattle which doesn’t want to go away. I have driven past Sacramento a couple of times before but never stopped there. Gopan, President of Techcoire (a high-tech networking organization in Sacramento) invited me to present the research from the book. The title of the talk was “Mobile Advertising: The $20B Opportunity?” The essence of the discussion was how do we move from the buzz of $20B to the biz of creating $20B in actual revenue. What are the sticking points? Where are the opportunities? and how do we go about creating a vibrant ecosystem? While there is justifiable skepticism in the advertising industry, mobile presents a very compelling conversation medium. The question is not about “if” but “when.”

After driving back and forth from bay area to Sacramento and coming late night, had a morning class with Prof Tom Kosnik’s “Global Entrepreneurial Marketing” students at Stanford University. It is a very popular course taught by a great teacher. On Prof. Kosnik’s suggestion, I skipped the standard presentation mode and straight away launched into the Q&A session and we went on for an hour. I used the slides and data to answer the questions. Frankly, I wish I could present and engage the audience this way more often. It is far more fun and both the audience and the speaker can get the most out of the session. The students were sharp, curious, and asked thought-provoking questions. Compared to other events, there were a lot more questions around privacy in mobile advertising and how to make sure the ecosystem doesn’t violate the trust of the users even accidentally. As an industry, we haven’t done all we can to ensure that, just yet. We also talked a lot about the fragmentation and differences in various market taking a more global view of the opportunity.

CTIA Wireless Wave - Moving Targets April 21, 2008

Posted by chetan in : AORTA, ARPU, CTIA, Carriers, European Wireless Market, Indian Wireless Market, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment

The Wireless Wave article on Mobile Advertising is online now

Moving Targets: Mobile Marketing Reaches Consumers on Their Terms
                                                                                 By Lynn Thorne

Imagine you�re about to meet a blind date for drinks. On the way to the restaurant you realize you�re short on cash. You don�t know your way around the city too well � how will you find the nearest ATM? The answer is as convenient as glancing at your cell phone.

Or you�re driving to meet a new client and you have just enough time to make the meeting. Suddenly your phone sounds an alert letting you know there�s a traffic jam ahead � just in time for you to take an alternate route and arrive on time.

Perhaps you live in an area where severe weather outbreaks are the norm. You get a message on your phone urging you to take cover, as you are smack in the path of an oncoming twister. Did a concerned co-worker call you with the warning? No, The Weather Channel Interactive sent you an urgent message on your handset.

To some these stories sound like science fiction, but to a growing number of those in the know, these are the proven, and very real abilities of mobile marketing and advertising. And while consumers have been using SMS, or short messaging service, for years, the future of mobile is about to take off faster than you can text �ASAP.�

Wide Open World
Mobile marketing and mobile advertising have been flourishing in other parts of the world since the early part of this century. In Japan, for instance, two factors uniquely helped the explosive growth of this industry: networks and teamwork. Ironically, those same two factors are part of what has delayed mobile commerce in the U.S.

�The penetration of broadband wireless, which is 70 to 80 percent in Japan, is only about 20 percent in the U.S.,� says to industry analyst Chetan Sharma,president of CSC, a consulting and advisory firm helping companies in the mobile and voice communications sector. Sharma points out that in Japan and Korea, mobile carriers and the advertising industry have collaborated and joined ventures to form companies to address mobile marketing and advertising. �But in the U.S.,� Sharma says, �carriers have their own strategy, and advertisers have their own strategy. They�re not working together.�

Yet the U.S. is the biggest advertising market in the world, and it appears that the nation is on the verge of a mobile marketing breakthrough. Sharma claims it is only a matter of time before the country comes into its own in the m-commerce arena. �A lot of the problems existing today will be solved because advertisers are eager to reach consumers. Even though Japan and Korea got started with mobile advertising before the U.S., the aggressiveness of the advertisers pursuing it is greater in this country.�

Applications
M-commerce has innumerable uses, some of which haven�t even been thought of yet. However, it is already being used in some fascinating ways. Roughly half of the mobile consumers in Korea and Japan use their phones like a credit card of sorts. Near Field Communication (NFC) technology enables them to pay for purchases by waving their cell phone over a contactless reader at retailers. They can even download coupons to their phones and then forward the discounts to other users in their networks.

While that technology hasn�t yet reached America, U.S. users are benefitting from mobile marketing in myriad ways. For example, Crisp Wireless partners with media entertainment companies like USA Today to enable them to build a mobile presence through advertising. USA Today, one of the pioneers of delivering traditional newspaper content in a mobile platform, launched its initial site in December of 2005. Boris Fridman, CEO of Crisp Wireless, calls it �nothing short of the perfect mobile destination.� Fridman explains why: �They started building this significant consumer audience, and advertisers started paying attention to it. They�ve done a tremendous job at understanding that mobile Internet would become a driver for advertising dollars. For USA Today, it is no longer an experiment; it is clearly a significant business opportunity.�

AOL, another early adopter, has capitalized on the mobile commerce opportunity as well. In 2007, the company updated its portal for a richer user interface, including AOL mobile search, City Guide, access to AIM (the largest ing the platforms available, AOL has concen-trated on making mobile simple for consumers.

�We do things that make accessing our services easier, not necessarily making the mobile phone easier to use,� says Jason Gruber, director of Mobile and Telecommunications for AOL. Some examples include getting MapQuest information on the desktop transferred to a phone with a �send to cell� functionality, where the user enjoys one-click access to MapQuest details. AOL was the first to introduce an I.M. forwarding service, so messages sent to a user�s desktop can be forwarded to his or her handset. �So it�s not only at the application level where we�re constantly making adjustments to the portal, but we�re really responding to the consumer base, [making sure] that the services consumers are comfortable with on the desktop can really work in the mobile space in an easy and fast way that�s relevant,� says Gruber.

Location-based service, in concert with GPS, enables companies to provide a context to their content. The Weather Channel Interactive, for example, has more than 35 million unique online users each month. It can deliver current conditions, expert forecasts, and relevant lifestyle content for 98,000 locations worldwide, so consumers in California are getting information that is specific to the west coast, while Michigan residents can be apprised of impending lake effect snows.

Since the younger generation drives a lot of the growth of mobile marketing, MTV is enjoying phenomenal increases in its mobile platforms. Greg Clayman, executive vice president of Digital Distribution and Business Development, Global Digital Media of MTV, says video is a prime example. �We�re doing five million mobile video clips a month in the U.S. That is nearly double what they were last year.� Beyond video clips, MTV�s mobile inventory includes linear video service, with clips of mobile video with DSE, and live programming of Comedy Central and Nickelodeon on V-cast.

The applications benefit the marketer as well as the consumer because ads can be much more user-specific. With browser-based advertising, ZIP codes are themain way to reach a particular audience segment. With mobile mar-keting and advertising, advertisers can utilize mobile instant messaging community) and information like gender, income, and other MapQuest, among others. Beyond imply maklimited profile data � all provided to wireless carriers by the user � to truly target the consumers most likely to respond.

Challenges and Solutions
It is easy to envision mobile marketing and advertising as an extension of the Internet, and in many ways, it is. However, there are fundamental differences that will affect the success of this new channel.

For example, advertisers cannot just expect the same ad to work on a PC and a mobile device. The huge difference in screen sizes means most ads won�t translate from one entity to another. Keyboard capabilities are also vastly different between computers and handsets.

AOL�s Gruber points out another challenge: fragmentation. �The application or service that we develop for a very simple low-end phone on one network may behave very differently and function differently than what exists on a very high-end phone.� To combat this problem, AOL has announced a client version of �My Mobile� that will make implementing AOL services on a mobile device a lot easier, no matter what kind of handset or carrier is used.

Chetan Sharma says search-based advertising has to change for mobile marketing to succeed. �On mobile devices, you have limited real estate. People are looking for answers, not thousands of facts. It becomes tricky in terms of how you figure out what the intent of the user is, so there is not so much room for error in mobile as there is for the Internet.�

There is also the challenge of demographics: plenty of industry research points to the younger generations as being the main mobile users. However, today�s device is not your teen�s mobile phone.

�Over the past few years, Newsweek, USA Today, Car and Driver, Elle, and many other traditional media companies that don�t necessarily appeal to the very young have launched mobile destinations,� says Fridman. �They appeal to a much broader audience.�

Louis Gump, vice president of Mobile at The Weather Channel Interactive, says the age limitations aren�t real. �There is a myth in the industry that everyone who uses their device for something other than talking on it is about 22 years old with a backpack. If you look at the demos, based on some of the research, what you�ll see is that the majority of the audience that uses wireless data is actually in the 25-34, and 35-44 demo with tails on either side. It�s a very attractive audience with millions of people who are in multiple demographic areas.�

Perhaps one of the biggest obstacles is the consumers themselves. Will they balk at the idea of advertising on their mobile devices as being too intrusive? Clayman predicts acceptance.
�As the mobile online experience begins to look more like the Web we�re accustomed to, consumers expect a certain degree of advertising. As long as it is something that is actually useful, people will think, �I see ads when I�m online or when I�m watching TV so there�s no reason I shouldn�t see them on my phone as well.��

Besides, Clayman points out, consumers are already paying for the content they get on their mobile devices. Ads can help offset the increasing costs. �If a carrier has video clips the consumer pays for that, and if you want to double the amount of content consumers can get, you�ve got limited options. Either the carrier can pay for it and lose money, or they can charge consumers more. Mobile advertising in general can subsidize that.�

Would people be willing to pay more for their mobile services instead of seeing ads on their devices? Probably not, but experts say they will likely accept some advertising in exchange for reduced-cost service. �If they are able to decide what kind of ads they get and when they get them, consumers will be more willing to accept [mobile advertising],� says Sharma.

Growing Pains and Plans
Experts agree that for mobile marketing and advertising to be as successful as possible, the user must be in control. Gump says careful planning is key.

�From a consumer-facing standpoint, we have an opportunity as media companies, wire-less carriers, and other service providers in the industry, to get this right. We need to put the customer first. From an industry standpoint, we need to think about how our actions today will affect where we�re going to be 10 years from now and act accordingly.�

Analyst Sharma agrees. �We need to make sure that the market matures correctly and that the business models are ironed out before the market becomes too big. It�s a journey of cautious optimism to contextual nirvana.�

That journey, while in its infancy, is well underway. As companies branch out and try new forms of mobile marketing � everything from American Idol�s interactive audience voting via text message to The Weather Channel Interactive�s use of location-based services � the industry is poised to take off.
�This is just the beginning,� says Fridman. �There are about 40 million consumers that visit mobile sites monthly, which represents about 15 percent of the subscriber base. But every month that audience continues to grow. This is an incredible growth opportunity for companies who want to reach the consumers, because that number will only continue to go up.�

And those companies are taking notice. �I�ve seen an uptake in the integration of mobile advertising by the brands and the agencies in the marketplace that has really impressed me,� Gruber says. �The way those budgets have grown, the way the brands are coming back for repeat business … I�m really looking forward to 2008 being a breakout year for mobile marketing and mobile advertising.�

Interview with Online Center for Media Studies, India April 17, 2008

Posted by chetan in : Indian Wireless Market, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem , 1 comment so far

My interview with Sunil Saxena, Dean of Online Center for Media Studies, India is online now.

CTIA Wireless 2008 Roundup April 4, 2008

Posted by chetan in : 3G, AORTA, ARPU, BRIC, CTIA, Carriers, Devices, Enterprise Mobility, European Wireless Market, Indian Wireless Market, Intellectual Property, International Trade, Japan Wireless Market, Location Based Services, M&A, MVNO, Mergers and Acquisitions, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Search, Mobile TV, Smart Phones, Speaking Engagements, Speech Recognition, US Wireless Market, Wi-Fi, WiMax, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 2 comments

CTIA Wireless 2008 Roundup

http://www.chetansharma.com/ctiawireless.htm

The Sin City hosted CTIA Wireless 2008 earlier this week. On Wednesday morning, just before leaving for the convention center, I caught some portion of Ben Bernanke�s congressional testimony on the US economy woes. Few minutes later, strolling the show floor, talking to various companies, and hearing the keynotes, it seemed like I was on a different planet. Either someone failed to deliver the memo or the wireless industry is resilient enough to weather the turmoil in the financial and housing markets with some ease. The show was bigger with more attendees, the booths were returning to their glamorous heydays of the past, and the general buzz and energy at the show all seem to indicate the industry is going to do just fine and is primed for further growth. The general themes were around open network and access, user experience, and bandwidth.

This note summarizes our impressions from the show.

CTIA Wireless in Pictures

First let�s do the numbers: CTIA released their semi-annual statistics on the US market. In summary: For 2007, $23B in data revenues, 2 trillion in MOU, $139B in total service revenues, 48B txt messages/month. (We released our US Market and Global Market updates last month)

Keynotes: In terms of style, Sir Richard Branson stole the show with his pompous exuberance and pep talk (the talk of imaginary flight to Mars was hilarious; investors in Microgin and Viroo must be upset). For substance, Marco Boerries, President, Yahoo Mobile gave a nice compact overview of Yahoo initiatives and products in the market which are pretty darn good. (Marco wrote an opinion piece for our Mobile Advertising Book � �The future of Advertising is in the Consumers� Pockets�). Yahoo has sewn together a number of deals worldwide that gives them a potential reach of over 600M users.

Vodafone is one operator which has been quite vocal in stating its positions on future infrastructure roadmap and data opportunities. Arun Sarin is probably the only CEO of major global operator who has publicly stated that Mobile Advertising will constitute a significant portion of their revenues in the coming days (Arun�s point person on the initiative Richard Saggers also wrote an opinion piece for our book �Opportunities for Mobile Advertising.� Let me know if you are interested in reading these two opinion pieces).

Microsoft�s Robbie Bach had the tough task of following the Branson-fest. He announced the arrival of a full-blown browser (finally!) for windows mobile. Also, the new windows mobile device from Sony Ericsson (Xperia) looks pretty darn cool. FCC Chairman Martin announced the rejection of Skype petition on the carterphone principle (to Skype�s dismay, it was not an April fool�s joke). Clearly, the definition of �open� is in the eye of the beholder. It means different things to different people. It has also been clear from the various activities and keynotes that the industry is trying its utmost to remain a �Self-regulated� industry and stay away from the clutches of eager politicians.

Lowell McAdam, CEO of Verizon Wireless conducted a panel with CEOs from Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, and Nortel and probed them on the 4G migration path, trends in applications and services, and contrasts in adoption and introduction of new technology in various parts of the world. Final day was marked by what is now becoming a trend - keynotes from politicians. This time around Sen. Edwards and Sen. Thompson graced the podium.

Mobile Advertising: In talking with numerous players in the value chain from small developers to large operators to ad networks to media companies, the impression was that things have matured over the last six months. It was gratifying to hear that some companies are adopting strategies and recommendations we propose in our book. Still, some of the basic problems remain � majority of the inventory remain unsold indicating weak demand, CPM rates are still over-rated though they are starting to come down, and fragmentation continues to remain an issue.

The good news is that the size of the mobile campaign budgets are getting bigger with several seven figure RFPs floating around. While some companies are still trying to throw a lot at the wall in the hope that something sticks, others are maturing as companies and are more focused in their positioning and product roadmaps. Integration of various channels is starting to appear on the horizon and the integration with the publishers is becoming tighter. The issue of measurement and auditing standards remains a big issue and unfortunately not much progress to report. There are carrier initiatives and various industry bodies are taking the challenge to rally the ecosystem, but, frankly, consolidation of such efforts is necessary, we can�t afford yet another layer of fragmentation in an already complex ecosystem.

We were interviewed on Mobile Advertising prior to the show by several publications. Some of the articles were published this week to coincide with CTIA

Wireless Wave (CTIA) � Moving Targets: Mobile marketing reaches consumers on their terms by Lynn Thorne

BrandWeek � Mobile Marketing � Fantasy vs. Reality by Ken Hein

Wall Street Journal � Personalized promotions: Sending the right ads to your phone � Peggy Anne Salz

NFC: There were many more NFC-enabled devices on display this time and vendors were talking and demoing NFC and Biometrics based payment solutions. While there are handsets on the roadmap, this market is still very nascent in North America and Western Europe.

Inspiration: The inspiration for new and creative services still comes (at least for yours truly) from Japan (and Korea). I love spending time in DoCoMo�s booth for it gives a glimpse into what�s to come. No other company better understands the development of devices, services and applications that overlay on lifestyles than DoCoMo (e.g. a wellness handset that is a pedometer, heart rate monitor, body and bad breath monitor and yes, you can make voice calls too). They view wireless air-interfaces as nothing more than enablers to solutions that enhance daily lives. Various device manufacturers also displayed some really cool devices. The quality and diversity of handsets that have been introduced into the global markets over the last four quarters is just astonishing. The cycle of innovation and time-to-market keeps on accelerating.

Femto Cells: A number of players like Airwalk, Airvana, and others are bringing Femto cell solutions to the market and carriers are starting to pull this into their strategy as well and look forward to deployments beyond the trials.

4G: LTE vs. WiMAX (vs. UMB): Since the decision of Vodafone and Verizon to support LTE, UMB has been disappearing from the discussion. The 4G discussion is convulsing around LTE and WiMAX now (though Nortel did indicate its support TD-SCDMA as a 4G candidate). Without a doubt the operator community is rallying behind LTE and there might be an opportunity to finally converge to a single standard (haven�t we seen this movie before) but frankly, the advances in silicon to integrate multiple radios has made the standards debate less relevant. WiMAX has forced acceleration of LTE standardization process but is starting to lose its time (and cost) advantage. All eyes are on Sprint�s XOHM business rollouts in the coming days and months.

Accessories: I have never seen so many accessory and reseller outfits at a CTIA show. Business must be booming.

Best Booth: Thought there were several good layouts, LG and Samsung continue to impress with their creativity and �art of marketing.�

Developer and Publisher woes: Along with John Philips (Astraware) and Peter Baldwin (Cellmania), I helped facilitate a few developer session at the Mobile Jam Session organized by WIP. The issues of distribution, discovery, and monetization remain challenging for the small developers worldwide. Even with million user base, they are finding it difficult to monetize but we did discuss a number of success stories. The core elements of success that emerged from the discussion were: choosing the right market, embedding viral component into everything you throw out there, there is no room for mediocrity, and personalizing and customizing go a long way to get traction. An interesting tidbit: the number of page views for mobile MySpace app is a magnitude higher on off-deck vs. ondeck. Several of the companies are trying mobile advertising with varying degrees of success. After spending 4 hours with the developers, I sat on a carrier panel discussing mobile advertising. The contrast between the two worlds was so apparent. Clearly, more needs to be done to help both sides understand each other a bit better.

Green CTIA: There is a stronger emphasis on recycling and contributing to save the environment. The show itself is a big resource hog, so every bit helps.

Alternate Mobile Devices: The universe of alternate devices is expanding. Companies are buying wholesale data packages from the operators and integrating broadband chipsets into hardware to do digital signage (ICG), M2M (Sensorlogic), PND and much more. The definition of being �mobile� keeps on changing.

On Being �Open�: Obviously, given the recent activity around openness, getting a penny for each time the word was uttered by a speaker would have paid off for a lifetime of CTIA trips. While talk is cheap, demonstrable progress is being made by the likes Yahoo, Apple (btw, 3G iPhone is on its way), and AOL.

Another MVNO experiences turmoil: Movida - a Spanish focused MVNO which has garnered almost 300K subs filed for chapter 11.

Voice is becoming mainstream: With the product launches from Nuance, SpinVox, Vlingo, Jott, Yahoo, and many others, voice based navigation and its tighter integration with data services is becoming mainstream.

Where are the opportunities? Last week, I was moderating a panel with executives from AOL Mobile, T-Mobile, Motricity, and Formotus and the themes that emerged were around platform play, user experience, and productivity. At CTIA, in addition to these areas, there was a lot of discussion around social networking (though the market is being saturated with the MoSo noise). It is also clear that we are moving into the phase of �aggregation of fragmentation� with initiatives from Yahoo, AOL, and Google dominating the landscape.

Home Screen Effect: I have been talking about using the home screen for driving data usage for the last 8 years. I think we will see good innovation this year on that front starting with Yahoo�s One Platform. There are several other initiatives in the works where operators and OEMs will be deploying frameworks and technologies to bring information to a �click-less� idle screen environment.

Overall, no major news but industry stays vibrant, healthy, and exciting.

Your feedback is always welcome.

Chetan Sharma

Disclosure: Some of the companies mentioned in this note are our clients.

WTIA Event - Mobile Mania, Where’s the Money? March 28, 2008

Posted by chetan in : European Wireless Market, Indian Wireless Market, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Search, Speaking Engagements, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain , 2 comments

Had a terrific turnout at the event and it was very well organized by WTIA. Jai Jaisimha, VP, AOL gave the keynote around their Open Initiative which seems like a comprehensive program compared to some of the other initiatives in the market place.

After that I moderated the panel with Jai, Brendan Benzing (Motricity), Ian McKerlich (T-Mobile), and Joe Verschueren( Formotus). We delved into where the opportunities lie in the coming years. Jai and Brendan emphasized platform, Ian talked about user experience and simplicity, and Joe put some emphasis on enterprise applications.

Global Wireless Data Market Update 2007 March 27, 2008

Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, ARPU, BRIC, CTIA, Carriers, Devices, European Wireless Market, India, Indian Wireless Market, Infrastructure, Intellectual Property, Japan Wireless Market, Location Based Services, M&A, MVNO, Mergers and Acquisitions, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Search, Mobile TV, Mobile Usability, Mobile Users, Networks, Partnership, Speaking Engagements, Speech Recognition, US Wireless Market, Wi-Fi, WiMax, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 7 comments

Global Wireless Data Market Update 2007

Download PDF  (2.3 MB)

Download PPT  (1.3 MB)

http://www.chetansharma.com/globalmarketupdate2007.htm

As you read this End of Year (EOY) 2007 Global Wireless Data Market update this week, somewhere in India, a new subscription will catapult India over the US as the number 2 global wireless market. 2007 was a banner year for global wireless data market. The global service revenues for the year touched $700 billion, the data service revenues were more than $120 billion, China signed its 500 millionth subscription, and both India (in feb 08) and the US crossed the 250 million subscription mark. 2007 continued to enhance mobile data�s role in the operator ecosystem with approx 17% of the revenue is coming from data services.

For some leading operators, data is now contributing up to 35% of the revenues however increase in data ARPU is not completely offsetting the drop in voice ARPU. From the true and tested SMS messaging to new services such as Mobile TV, Enterprise apps, and others, different services helped in adding billions to the revenues generated for 2007. Japan and Korea remain the envy of the global markets and the countries to study and learn from w.r.t. new services and applications. The US market has been steadily making strong comeback and for the first time exceeded Japan in service revenue generated from mobile data.

Chetan Sharma Consulting conducted its semiannual study on the global mobile data industry. We studied wireless data trends in over 40 major countries - from developed and mature markets such as Japan, Korea, UK, and Italy to hyper growth markets such as China and India. This note summarizes the findings from the research.

• The worldwide markets continue to grow at an explosive pace reaching 3.3B subscriptions by Q407 up 20% from 2006 levels. Significant growth is coming from India and China with both countries registering close to 8-9M net adds per month. India recorded 8.8M net adds in Jan 08 while China added 9.4M in Feb 08. Overall, the world market is at almost 50% penetration.
• US surpassed Japan as the most valuable mobile data market in service revenue with US adding $24.5B vs. $23.2B for Japan in 2007 mobile data service revenues. China with $12.5B was ranked number 3. US registered the highest growth amongst the top 3 with over 55% increase from 2006 levels followed by China at 37% and Japan at 18%. These top 3 markets account for over 50% of the global data service revenues.
• NTT DoCoMo continues to dominate the wireless data service revenues rankings with over $12.13B in service data revenues for 2007 however Q/Q growth has dropped to single digits. DoCoMo crossed 80% in 3G penetration and is expected to touch 90% by end of the year.
• DoCoMo was followed by China Mobile, KDDI, Verizon Wireless, AT&T, Sprint Nextel, O2 UK, SK Telecom, Softbank, and China Unicom to round up the top 10 operators by wireless data service revenues. All the top 10 carriers exceeded $3B in data revenues for the year.
• Most of the major operators around the world have double digit percentage contribution to their overall ARPU from data services. Operators like KDDI, DoCoMo, 3 Italy, 3 UK, and O2 UK are topping 30%.
• Both India and China added a whopping 85 million new subscriptions (most of them prepaid). This week India edges past US to become the number 2 wireless market (by subscriptions) in the world. In last two years alone it added almost 150 million new subscriptions (in comparison China added 155 million and the US market added 44 million).
• Vodafone Italy reported the highest increase in data ARPU from 4Q06 with 76% growth. Other notable percentage increases in ARPU were from Rogers, AT&T, Verizon Wireless, Sprint, and T-Mobile Austria. The biggest drop in percentage terms were registered by the Indian operators with average data ARPU dropping to $0.70.
• In terms of absolute dollar amount, 3 UK leads the pack with $29 data ARPU (qualifying limit: 4 million subs). By comparison, the rest of the top 4 operators are below $22. In fact, 3 UK reported the highest ARPU recorded for the year at approximately $94 (in Q2). Other operators who reported overall ARPU above $60 were KDDI, NTT DoCoMo, Rogers, and 3 Sweden.
• The biggest jump in data revenues was experienced by Verizon Wireless with over 68% increase from 2006 followed by AT&T with 63% jump and O2 UK making 49% gain.
• In 2007, SMS�s vice like grip on data revenues continued to loosen a bit with many carriers seeing an increase in non-SMS data revenues. On an average, Japan and Korea have over 70-75% of their revenue coming from non-SMS data applications, US around 50-60%, and Western Europe around 20-40%.
• The top 10 operators increased their revenue by 32% during 2007 (from 2006) to reach almost $62 billion in data service revenues, thus accounting for almost half of the global data service revenues though they account for only 27% of the global subscription base.
• NTT DoCoMo�s position at the top of the wireless data world has been challenged recently by several carriers esp. by its archrival KDDI. Their data coordinates stand at ($21.5, 35%) and ($21, 34%) respectively (please see PowerPoint for reference). Since the takeover from Vodafone, Softbank has been making significant strides in the market by taking the highest share of the net-adds in last 9 months.
• The biggest percentage contribution by data ARPU has been consistently registered (since mid 2002) by two Philippines carriers � Smart Communications and Globe Telecom with almost 55% (or $4) contribution coming from data services.
• Even though China reported approximately $12.5B in data revenues for 2007 and the percentage contribution is over 23%, data ARPU is around $2.3. For India data ARPU dropped below $1 for all major carriers.
• China Mobile with 369M (as of Dec 07, the numbers increased to 384M by Feb 08) remains the #1 carrier in terms of total number of subscribers followed by Vodafone at 252M and China Unicom with 160M subscriptions. Telefonica, Am�rica M�vil, SingTel, Deutsche Telekom (T-Mobile), and Orange (France Telecom) are the next five largest telecom groups in the world. In terms of individual carriers in a given country, AT&T and Verizon Wireless occupy the #3 and #4 spot respectively ahead of NTT DoCoMo, which is at #5. The two Chinese carriers round up the top two positions and are likely to stay perched at their lookout vistas for many years to come. China Mobile also surpassed Vodafone in market cap which stands at $288B (vs. $164B for Vodafone). Telecom groups in mature markets are under enormous pressure to either come up with a global expansion strategy or accelerate their existing plans. Carriers in Japan and Korea are the most under duress.
• As far as 3G is concerned, GSA reported 293 WCDMA commercial launches worldwide with over 270M 3G users (66% of them are WCDMA users vs. EV-DO). Both Japan and Korea continue to expand their 3G base with both reporting over 75-80% penetration. 3G has picked-up steam in both western Europe and North America per our forecast in the 2005 cover story article �3G: Hitting the Mass Market� published in the Wireless World Magazine. Western Europe and US are approximately at 25% 3G penetration (Italy being the exception reaching 40%).
• China and India represent the biggest opportunities for Infrastructure providers. China has postponed its 3G decision for the umpteenth time and has been having technical and political problems to get something in place before the 2008 Olympics. India is going through its 3G spectrum policy but unlike China is likely to resolve the issues in short order. Some of the biggest infrastructure contracts will come from these two countries that are looking to expand coverage into rural areas. In India, regulators are considering inviting bids for the 3G spectrum from foreign entities as well.
• Carriers with nationwide 3G networks and good distribution of handsets are seeing uptick in data ARPU. The Japanese and Korean carriers along with operator 3, Verizon, Sprint Nextel are all seeing benefits of rolling out their 3G service. Deployment of 3.5G technologies such as HSDPA and EV-DO Rev A (and B) are also gaining momentum. Networks are getting deployed and market is being seeded with some of the early handsets. In terms of 4G, there is a strong momentum behind LTE, UMB in its current incarnation is practically dead, and proponents of WiMAX are pushing the technology as a 4G candidate, though it is starting to lose its time advantage.
• In terms of applications, messaging accounts for lion-share of data revenues. However, other services such as Mobile Music, Mobile TV and video streaming, Voice navigation, PNDs, Mobile Games, IMS, LBS, Mobile advertising, and others have captured industry�s imagination. Though not much talked about, enterprise applications are also being adopted widely esp. in North America as more workers become mobile and corporations seek efficiencies in their operations and supply-chain.
• 2007 also saw the demise of some high-profile MVNOs like Amp�D. Helio continues to struggle while the newer ones like Sonopia and Blyk are testing the treacherous waters with different business models. Asian market is also opening up for MVNOs.
• Nokia eclipsed 100M/quarter unit sale three times in 2007. It sold over 437M handsets in 2007, more than the next three handset manufacturers combined. Nokia�s global market share stood at 40.2%.
• While the talk of �Open Access� and �Open Platform� consumed much of North America, it barely registered a decibel elsewhere. Several significant events including 700 MHz Auction, Android, and Verizon�s �Open Network� initiative elevated the consternation in the ecosystem.
• Several operators reported Mobile Advertising as their key strategic focus for the coming quarters, esp. China Mobile and Vodafone. Sensing the opportunity to seek new sources of revenue stream, Nokia launched its ad service as well. 2007 saw tremendous M&A activity in both the online and mobile advertising space. In a matter of weeks, several billion dollar transactions took place highlighting the intensity in preparing for the next battleground. The estimated market for mobile advertising in 2007 was approximately $2.3B with messaging, search, and browsing accounting for over 84% of the revenues.

Your feedback is always welcome.

Chetan Sharma

Disclosure: Some of the companies mentioned in this note are our clients.

Recap of Mobile Advertising Events - Stanford and Seattle March 22, 2008

Posted by chetan in : AORTA, ARPU, Carriers, Indian Wireless Market, M&A, Middleware, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Search, Mobile TV, Mobile Usability, Speaking Engagements, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment

This week I had the opportunity to moderate two distinguished panels on Mobile Advertising in two days, one at Stanford University and the other one in Seattle. This post summarizes the issues and points discussed during these two sessions.

Stanford University by Mobile Momentum

The first one was part our book tour and was organized by Mobile Momentum, an organization lead by Prof. Tom Kosnik and his student Mohit Gundecha. The event was sponsored by three of the pioneers in Mobile Advertising space - AdInfuse, Admob, and Rhythm New Media. My co-author Victor Melfi and I walked through some of the salient points of our book. We discussed the history of advertising, the digital revolution of the Internet, delved a bit into the definition of mobile advertising, the challenges and accelerators of this nascent industry, pondered over the business models, illustrated some of the successes using the case studies and our five-points framework (reach, engagement, targeting, viral, and transactions), briefly touched on the technology issues and gave our 2c on what it will take for the industry to go from its current state of “cautious optimism” to promise of “contextual nirvana.” Some of the key points were:

• Keep things in perspective
• Understand the business, not just the technology
• Chant the User Experience mantra
• Give Users Control
• Respect Consumer Privacy
• Focus on the most critical 1%
• Prepare for Data Everywhere
• Visualize Three Screens
• Watch your kids: They are the Market
• Watch for external catalysts to change like Alternate Devices and Open Platforms