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2010 Mobile Industry Predictions Survey January 3, 2010

Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, ARPU, BRIC, CTIA, Carnival of Mobilists, Carriers, Devices, Enterprise Mobility, European Wireless Market, Federal, Gaming, General, IP, IP Strategy, India, Indian Wireless Market, Infrastructure, Intellectual Property, International Trade, Japan Wireless Market, Location Based Services, M&A, MVNO, Mergers and Acquisitions, Messaging, Microsoft Mobile, Middleware, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Search, Mobile TV, Mobile Traffic, Mobile Usability, Mobile Users, Mobile Wallet, Music Player, Networks, Partnership, Patent Strategies, Patent Strategy, Patents, Privacy, Smart Phones, Speaking Engagements, Speech Recognition, Storage, Strategy, US Wireless Market, Uncategorized, Unified Messaging, Usability, Wi-Fi, WiMax, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 5 comments

2010 Mobile Industry Predictions Survey

http://www.chetansharma.com/MobilePredictions2010.htm

Mobile Predictions Survey (pdf)

Mobile Predictions Survey (ppt)

First things first. From all of us at Chetan Sharma Consulting, we wish you and yours a very happy, healthy, and prosperous 2010. Thanks to all who participated in our 2010 Mobile Predictions Annual Survey. We have found it is the best way to think about the trends coming our way.

Before we dive into the survey results, let’s do a quick wrap-up of the year that was. Well, since we  just completed one heck of a mobile decade, let’s do a quick jog down the memory lane.

The Last Decade: 2000-2009

Each new decade brings its own consumer and technology trends. During the 2000s mobile cemented its place in the global society fabric, the use of mobility became addictive and pervasive, to be without mobile seemed a curse and innovation blossomed and took user expectations to new heights.

decadeglobal

From a pure statistical point of view, the global mobile subscription penetration grew from 12% in 2000 to approximately 68% in 2009 - phenomenal by any measure. The overall revenues grew over 400%, the data revenue grew 32,600% and the total subscriptions grew 563%. NTT DoCoMo paved the way with the i-mode launch in 1999 and they were the operator to emulate throughout the last decade, leading every single year in data revenues, in new application and service revenue sources, and in innovation and risk taking. They tried to export the success to other regions with little reward but DoCoMo clearly led the industry in taking mobile devices where they have never gone before.

China and India were late to the party but during the second half of the decade caught up with the western world and eventually surpassed all nations becoming number one and two nations by subscriptions respectively. In 2006, China Mobile became the most valuable operator passing Vodafone.

Mobile devices went significant transformation as well. From the early Bluetooth, camera, and music phones to the iPhones, the Storms, and the Androids, the industry was transformed by the introduction of Apple’s iPhone in 2007. While Bluetooth, sleek designs, camera phone defined the first half of the decade, the second half was all about the applications and the mobile web. While Nokia dominated the entire decade in terms of the sales and profits, having missed the touch revolution, it leaves the decade a bit battered and a bit behind playing catch-up to the newcomers who profoundly disturbed the status quo.

decadeoem

Razr carried Motorola through 2006 when its global share peaked but was left to reinvent itself during the second half. It seems to have redeemed itself with the successful launch of Droid and upcoming Android devices. While many in the industry predicted RIM’s demise, the company has only gotten stronger and is looking good for the 2010s. The emergence of Samsung and LG as strong players in the mobile ecosystem was also a big story of the decade with Samsung increasing its share by 380% and LG by 575% becoming the number 2 and 3 players respectively.

While Microsoft’s Windows Mobile had an early start and the enterprise market share, it lost its way through several missteps and is on dialysis as we enter the new decade. One shouldn’t count WM out though but there is a lot of work to be done before it can capture the imagination of the ecosystem which has been sequestered away by iPhone and Android.

While many new application areas were introduced during 2000s, none was able to displace SMS as the leading app category by usage and revenues. However, it’s relative share has started to come down especially in North America and Western Europe.

As data usage grew, so did the data traffic bringing many data networks to their knees. We expect the data traffic consumption to only accelerate. Many people are underestimating the growth rates (as they did previously) and the strain the increase in consumption will put on the unprepared networks. Projector phones will take media  consumption to a new level. Data management is going to be big business in the 2010s.

Overall, the mobile industry became a trillion dollar industry in 2008 and the data revenues are increasing in almost all regions. Voice is being commoditized at fast pace and that has put the traditional economics and ecosystem wealth distribution in topsy-turvy.

decadeus

The US market also experienced tremendous growth with mobile data service revenues climbing 21,327% and becoming a mainstay in the mobile economy. In 2008 it crossed Japan as the most valuable mobile data market. US was late in adopting SMS but caught fire once American Idol started using it and even played a good role in the 2008 Presidential election in showcasing the power of mobile. Verizon started the decade being the number one operator and after trading places with Cingular and ATT grabbed the title back in 2009 (after the Alltel acquisition) to become the most dominant carrier in North America. Many smaller players competed by being innovative with Cincinnati Bell launching the fist UMA device, Sprint the first mobile eReader, and TMO launched the hotspot business which has now become an essential component of an operator strategy going forward.

Mobile is also replacing landline at a much faster pace than expected and within the first half of the new decade, we will have majority of the users using mobile vs. landline. Just like the last decade, this one starts with a new standard deployment of LTE that will keep operators and vendors busy throughout the decade. However, a lot of the developing markets will still be deploying 3G during the first half of the decade.

Infrastructure providers suffered the most in the decade bookended by the two recessions. Consolidation of giants (Alcatel Lucent, Nokia Siemens), bankruptcies of the famous (Nortel), and uprising of the upstarts (Huawei) pretty much defined the decade for the segment. Ericsson and Huawei enter the new decade from a strong position and looking to dominate the global markets.

The last decade was also marked by some prominent IP battles such as RIM vs. NTP, Qualcomm vs. Broadcom, Sony Ericsson vs. Samsung, Upaid vs. Satyam etc. (disclaimer: we worked on some of these cases and testified as an expert)

Here is our “subjective” list of movers and shakers of the last decade

2000-2009

2010-2019

Operator of the Decade

NTT DoCoMo

DCM led the way in almost all new category of apps and services. Its data service revenue was highest in each of the last 10 years

DCM will continue to lead along with KDDI and SKT. However, it might be the carriers with tremendous scale who will have the calling cards in the new decade. Watch for China Mobile, Vodafone/Verizon, Telefonica, Orange, Bharti, Unicom, Singtel

OEM of the Decade

Nokia

Nokia dominated in sales and revenues in each of the 10 years and while the last couple of years took some shine off its glorious past, the company nevertheless came out ahead

RIM, Apple, Nokia, Samsung

Smartphone OEM of the Decade

Apple

Smartphones as we know them were introduced by RIM but Apple defined the category and the subsequent ecosystem

This space will be very competitive with Apple still the gold standard to beat

Infrastructure Provider of the Decade

Ericsson

Its prime rivals struggled to stay afloat while Ericsson grabbed most of the revenues from infrastructure contracts and is very well positioned for the next decade

Ericsson is joined by Huawei as the two top infrastructure provider with Huawei giving tough competition for LTE contracts. ZTE and other Chinese infrastructure providers will also replace some of the incumbents

Nation that led in mobile data

Japan

This is a no brainer. Japan led with Korea a close second. Finland, UK also impressed

US, China, and India are well positioned to make an impression but most likely during the second half. Japan will still be a major player

Device of the decade

iPhone followed by Razr

iPhone impressed with form and function while Razr with its global sales making it a top selling device of all times

The field might get more crowded as all OEMs focusing on the smartphone category. However, OEMs who also focus on the 90% of the market w/o smartphones might win the top prize

The year 2009

Apple continued to dominate the headlines for the third straight year - whether it was the launch of 3GS or the upcoming introduction of the fabled tablet. Google too kept the ecosystem active. It has executed on its mobile strategy with brilliant acumen though causing significant consternation amongst its partners who it needs to be successful. It has been often misunderstood by competitors, regulators, and partners. Often, they have focused on Google’s tactics vs. its strategy. Look for these two players to be very aggressive as they try to fight for the mantle and the mindshare.

While Nokia leads the OEM space by a good distance, its momentum in the smartphone space left a lot of question marks. Motorola made a credible comeback with Cliq and Droid. Samsung and LG continued to innovate and expanded on their share of shipments and revenues.

India outpaced China in net-adds and crossed 500M though it is still quite behind China’s 750M. The M&A and the consolidation process became active in Asia with several of the big regional operators looking to flex muscles in the international markets. After several delays, China started deploying 3G while India again fumbled and postponed its 3G auction.

US mobile data market continued its pace in 2009 with each of the four quarters exceeding $10B in data service revenues. The gap between the top two operators and the rest grew to be the biggest in the decade and the industry weathered the recession with ease. There was a clear shift towards prepaid especially for Sprint, T-Mobile, and the tier 2/3 operators.

2009 was also defined by significant activity on the application front. With Facebook eclipsing 100M subscribers and Appstore exceeding 2.5B downloads, sky is the limit.

The year also saw an unprecedented growth in mobile data consumption. As we had predicted, for some of the networks, the growth proved to be a double-edged sword. Many in the industry are banking on LTE to help relieve the pain but will be surprised that depending solely on the upgrade strategy will not be enough. Declaring spectrum as a looming crisis, FCC also started tinkering with the mobile industry and the broadband plan.

Japan exceeded 90% in 3G penetration while US subscriptions ventured into the 90% territory. Most of western Europe is way past 130%.

All in all, a terrific year considering that we went through one of the worst recessions in a generation. As we bid goodbye to the last decade, Nexus One and iTablet only serve to whet our appetite of what’s to come.

On a personal note, we started our consulting practice this last decade as we were coming out of the bubble recession and have been fortunate to work with some of the brightest brains and companies in the global ecosystem. We also had a chance to work on some key initiatives that impacted the ecosystem in profound ways. Many thanks to our clients, colleagues, friends, and readers. We will be involved with many new initiatives over the next decade and are looking forward to the conversations through the research notes, books, speeches, panels, whitepapers, blog posts, facebook and twitter feeds, and more.

Thanks and Happy New Year. May the upcoming decade leave you happier, healthier, and more successful than the previous one.

As we eluded to earlier, 2010 will be a pretty eventful year from several perspectives: business models, user experience and expectations, ecosystem posturing, disruption, and friction. How are things going to shape up? What will be hot and what will fade into oblivion? How will competition shape up the new sub-segments?

We put some of the questions to our colleagues in the industry. We were able to glean some valuable insights from their choices and comments. This survey is different from some of the others in the sense that it includes industry movers and shakers participation. Executives and insiders (n=150) from leading mobile companies across the value chain and around the world opined to help us see what 2010 might bring.

11 names were randomly drawn for 3 special prizes. The winners are:

  1. Claire Boonstra, Cofounder, Layar- INQMobile 3G Chat device

  2. Michael Libes, CTO, GroundTruth - Open Mobile Book

  3. Henri Moissinac, Head of Mobile, Facebook - Open Mobile Book

  4. Subba Rao, CEO, TataDoCoMo - Open Mobile Book

  5. Saumil Gandhi, Product Manager, Microsoft - Open Mobile Book

  6. Sarah Reedy, Senior Editor, Connected Planet - Open Mobile Book

  7. Mike Vanderwoude, VP & GM, Cincinnati Bell Wireless - 2010 Mobile Almanac

  8. Pinney Colton, VP, GfK - 2010 Mobile Almanac

  9. Tim Chang, Principal, Norwest Ventures - 2010 Mobile Almanac

  10. Laura Marriott, President - 2010 Mobile Almanac

  11. Asha Vellaikal, Director, Orange - 2010 Mobile Almanac

Thanks to INQMobile and my friend Ajit Jaokar for contributing the prize gifts.

Despite conventional wisdom, what will not happen in 2010?

There were many. Sampling - Verizon iPhone, Microsoft Phone, Sprint will not be bought, Femtocells won’t gain traction, RCS will not happen, Google will not enter handset market directly, iPhone won’t lose steam, Android won’t bring coherence, NFC won’t take off, WiMAX won’t disappear, Nokia won’t bounce back, Palm won’t die, “Year of Mobile” noise won’t subside, carriers won’t be delegated as dumb-pipes.

It is hard to cover the mobile industry in 20 questions. As pointed out by our panelists, there are a number of other issues and opportunities that will help shape our ecosystem - monetization of social networks, augmented reality, the fight for mobile advertising dollars, continued impact of globalization, security and privacy, NFC, IMS, VoIP, enterprise apps beyond email, battery improvements, new interaction modalities, health risks of RF radiation, Mobile 3.0, LTE, single purpose devices, 3G in India, Bada, app vs web, developer turmoil, featurephones, smart grids, M2M, Chrome, etc.

However, be rest assured, we will be tracking these and much more throughout the year and sharing them through various channels.

Thanks again to everyone who contributed. We will be calling on you again next year. We are clearly living in "interesting times" with never a dull moment in our dynamic industry. It has been a terrific year for us here at Chetan Sharma Consulting and we are looking forward to the next decade and seeing many of you along the way.

We hope you enjoyed gaining from the collective wisdom. Your feedback is always welcome.

Be well, Do Cool Work, Stay in touch.

Thanks.

With warm wishes,

Chetan Sharma

Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this note are our clients.

Now onto the 2010 Mobile Industry Predictions Survey Results

The panel comprised of movers and shakers from around the world

survey2_10 survey1_10

What will be the biggest stories of 2010?

survey3_10

Jan seems to be the Google Phone vs. Apple Tablet matchup. Our panel though voted for the continued growth in mobile data as the top story.

Have we recovered from the recession? (Please select one)

survey4_10

Majority thought we are out of it though some might still feel the pinch

Who will be the most open player in the mobile ecosystem in 2010? (Please select one)

survey5_10

Google has done a great job at maintaining its image as THE open leader

Will Android handset sales exceed iPhone’s in 2010? (Please select one)

survey6_10

Despite Androids coming in droves, iPhone will still be the king of the hill

When will we see tiered pricing plans for smartphones in the US from tier 1 operators? (Please select one)

survey7_10

There are indications that this might happen sooner rather than later

What will happen to the mobile prepaid subscriber base in the US? (Please select one)

survey8_10

Prepaid made a strong comeback in 2009 and a good majority thought that the trend is likely to continue

By how much will the mobile advertising ad-spend increase in 2010? (Please select one)

survey9_10

Mobile Advertising was the only advertising segment with positive growth last year so it is no surprise that folks expect it to more than double this year

What will be the impact of the FCC’s national broadband plan on the mobile industry in 2010? (Please select one)

survey10_10

Not much is expected from the various rulings that might come this year with most expecting the courts to have the final word.

Who will be the mobile comeback story of 2010?

survey12_10

Having bet its future on Android, Motorola was voted as the comeback kid of 2010

What will be the impact of Google Phone?

survey13_10

It’s pretty clear, Google and Apple are duking it out for the developer mindshare. Google wins in either case.

Which areas will feel the most impact from FCC?

 survey11_10

Net neutrality is the area where they will have the most impact

Which solutions will gain the most traction for managing mobile data broadband consumption?

survey14_10

While only a holistic approach can provide complete relief, tiered mobile data pricing might have the most impact

When will the carrier-branded appstores lose steam? (Please select one)

survey15_10

Most expect carrier-branded appstores to be a thing of the past in 2010

What will help mobile cloud computing gain traction in 2010?

survey16_10

Mobile cloud computing is gaining steam and the reason is storage and media

What will be the most successful non-mobile-phone category in 2010? (Please select one)

survey17_10

Netbooks seem to be the strongest category followed by eReaders, Tablet, and M2M

What will be the breakthrough category in mobile in 2010? (Please select one)

survey18_10

Mobile Advertising and Mobile Payments share the top honors

By the end of 2010, which will have more subscribers? (Please select one)

survey19_10

LTE might have the momentum but WiMAX has the subscribers

How will Netbooks do through the operator channel? (Please select one)

survey20_10

No major impact from the operator channel

Which standards will gain traction?

survey21_10

No major impact from the standards

What mode of mobile payments will get any traction in North America and Western Europe in 2010?

survey22_10

The category will expand in different ways with more items being charged on the operator bill

New Whitepaper: The Untapped Mobile Data Opportunity December 16, 2009

Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, ARPU, BRIC, Carriers, Enterprise Mobility, European Wireless Market, General, IP, IP Strategy, India, Indian Wireless Market, Infrastructure, Intellectual Property, International Trade, Japan Wireless Market, Location Based Services, M&A, MVNO, Microsoft Mobile, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Search, Mobile TV, Mobile Usability, Mobile Users, Networks, Smart Phones, Speech Recognition, Storage, US Wireless Market, Unified Messaging, Wi-Fi, WiMax, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 3 comments

UntappedMobile_s

http://www.chetansharma.com/untappedmobiledataopportunity.htm

The Untapped Mobile Data Opportunity

Sponsored by INQMobile

The last two years in the global mobile market have been truly sensational. Over 1 billion new subscriptions added, over 2 billion new devices sold, and over $300 billion in mobile data revenues. The number of new iconic devices each quarter is on the rise, the consumer engagement is at an all time high and the new startups and entrepreneurs are brimming with ideas and new products. Devices like the iPhone, Storm, Hero, INQ1, Mytouch, Cliq, Droid, N97 and others have captured the imagination of the media like never before. The smartphones or the integrated devices now account for approximately 9% of the global market. However, what’s often lost in the smartphone euphoria is the remaining 91% of the market and the significant opportunity of data-enabling these customers.

Operators who have focused on data services as their core service have benefited with high data Average Revenue Per User (ARPU). As we quickly transition into the hyper growth phase of mobile data services, players who are designing affordable devices and services with "mobile data" in mind are the ones who will benefit from a higher uptick in adoption and sustainable consumer loyalty. However, as operators have migrated from 2G to 3G, many have missed an opportunity to customize or introduce new services that take advantage of devices being mobile, interactive, and always available.

Traditionally, there has been a big gulf between the functionality of featurephones and the smartphones; however, there is an emerging category of devices that will provide the functionality of a smartphone for the price of a feature phone. Though the average selling price or the ASP of the smartphone has been dropping, the price is still high for a significant majority of the global subscriber base. Consumers who are looking for a sub $50 device still want to the access applications such as Facebook, Twitter, Google search, and make VoIP calls, etc.

In this paper, we will look at the opportunity to attract the 91% of the global user base into the mobile data ecosystem. We will quantify the opportunity, examine what this opportunity means to the mobile value chain specifically to the mobile operators and discuss the success factors to accelerate the migration of non-active data users into the data realm.

Download Paper (660 KB)

Top 3 nations by mobile data revenues for 2006 are - April 8, 2007

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Japan, US, and China .. no surprise there but US is catching up fast with Japan. This and more stats in our upcoming Global Wireless Market update for 2006.

End of Vonage? April 6, 2007

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As i alluded to previously, Vonage is in serious trouble. Vonage is not allowed to sign up new customers while it appeals a court ruling that it infringed three Verizon patents. This is the price the VoiP telephony provider must pay for gaining some breathing space in its appeal against an injunction from using technology “owned” by Verizon.

Lack of coherent IP strategy comes and haunts the trail blazer.

Shawn Conahan writes April 5, 2007

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This post was going to be called CTIA 2007 roundup but while I was writing it, I got Chetans CTIA 2007 roundup and it was simply better than mine, so I wrote about my favorite party instead. Irrelevant, perhaps, but I think it is an indication that the mobile space is officially sexy. Go read Chetans very good synopsis here.

Shawn is CEO, Founder and Chairman of Intercasting.

Thanks Shawn. Read about the party that rocked CTIA and Shawn’s insights from the show.

Carnival of the Mobilists coming to AORTA next week April 4, 2007

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Wap Review hosts the Carnival this week and I am delighted that AORTA is next in line. Please submit your entry as soon as you can. Don’t have one, write one up quickly.

YAMVNO April 2, 2007

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Yet Another MVNO - though this one is with a twist - Sonopia

Bold New DRM Free World

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There were some indications that this would happen sooner rather than later. EMI and Apple announced a shift in the digital music industry.

Sights from CTIA April 1, 2007

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090084079069068067065063059055053051046033031030026025024021020016014012011010009008007001

CTIA Numbers don’t add up March 31, 2007

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CTIA released its 2006 numbers at the show. Some of them don’t add up. For e.g. they noted 233M subs by end of 2006 however their ticker is showing 234M as of March 07. One of them is clearly incorrect. Secondly, they noted that data service revenue was $15.2B. Again, the top 4 operators published numbers added up to $14.4B, rest of the industry (with over 43M subs) generally generates over 10% which takes the numbers to $15.8B which we had earlier reported.

Mobile Search - Improving Findability of Content March 27, 2007

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This article appeared on the launch of msearchgroove.com by Peggy Anne Saltz. We were also quoted in Peggy’s excellent article Mobile Content: More effort than it’s worth?

 

Mobile Search - Improving Findability of Content

An executive at a prominent mobile operator recently asked me is there any money in Mobile Search? Should we just get Yahoo or Google in here and not worry about it? Is there something at stake here that we should worry about? Mobile Search is a dilemma to many in the value chain. Should they cede control or innovate for the long-term? As the discoverable content increases in depth and breadth, it is inevitable that mobile search will drive user navigation on devices. Whether it is by user keying in a few keywords or short cuts or search engine generating a personalized, to-the-minute user interface that directs user navigation, mobile search strategies will start taking center-stage on majority of decks. Also, advertisers are starting to discover the power of mobile channel to connect with the consumers.

A key problem for the mobile data industry is subscribers trying to find a specific piece of content or a specific application. All of the major operators offer an excellent and expansive range of games, ring tones and many other applications. While choice is great for the consumer, if they can find what they are looking for, the sheer number of options available is bewildering. It is impossible to browse and navigate the labyrinth navigation structures available today. Mobile search helps tie together otherwise silo?d catalogs and deep navigation trees for ringtones, graphics, games, music, sports, news and other content.

There are several differences between Internet (aka Google) search and mobile search. While Google on desktop might return a useless list of 2M hits (the useful results are generally in the first dozen links), mobile search needs to take in more variables before it figures out the answer to the user input. These variables are driven by context, history, preferences, device capabilities, and social network. You weir off a bit and the experience starts to waffle. Understanding user?s intent is key. The business models are also slightly different. While Google might present the paid-search-results on top, on the side or even blended in the main body, search results needs to very optimized and customized to the query and context. In addition, several new models come into play like click-to-call where real money is to be made. Some calls such as in real-estate business can yield over $30 per call for referrals. You can do the math. Clearly, we are in the early experimentation phase and some of the high CPMs and CPCs will eventually settle on a more reasonable metrics, but the need and demand is there.
The majority of the searches initially will happen via browser and using keypad input from the user but will gradually be integrated tightly across applications and platforms and will accept voice, image, bar code, and others input mechanisms.

Mobile Long Tail

We are all used to a hit driven games and ringtones business that is constrained by the limits of deck or storefront menus and by shelf space. Mobile Search helps eliminate the need to market and arrange the storefronts for the lowest common denominator and instead foster up hundreds of niche categories and storefronts. A successful long tail model in mobile will be driven by two core requirements:

  1. Easy access to all of the content in the category being sold. But also must have access to the hits in the category.
  2. Easy ways for content buyers to find the rare stuff in niches. Menus on menus on menus linked from the home page won?t cut it on a small screen. You can?t display it all.

Blended results

Most mobile keyword searches will involve answers that come from multiple sources and databases. In such cases, search results are blended? or federated and results collected amongst numerous databases. These databases are all generated by mobile-centric crawlers or filtered from web-centric real-time API feeds or content integration into a catalog.

Search modality

Initially, majority of the searches on the device will happen via a browser. However, in the next few years, search application(s) will be embedded in majority of the devices and will become a standard feature just like SMS or IM clients on the devices today. Other means of input to search would be voice, picture (camera) or bar code (camera, barcode reader). Results from searches could be cached and potential content of interest can be pushed to the user device for quick access. At the end users really do not care about modality, they care about relevancy.

Finding content from anywhere

Mobile search solution should empower user with flexibility and on-demand capability. If the user is using a desktop, they should be able to send results or customized queries to not only their phones but also to all parties of interest. Similarly, user might be in a car and the situation demands a voice input and text out capability. User should be able to find relevant information by speaking some key words instead of tapping them in.

Running promotions

The search results page can provide an area for carrier driven promotions. The subscriber?s search term determines which promotion is presented. The process of creating a promotion and tagging it with relevant keywords is performed in the content management system. After being published, retrieval and presentation of a promotion is an automated background process. To stem declining ARPU and grow revenue, one needs to make it easier for consumers to find what interests them by delivering relevance on top.

Local search

Local search is an important part of mobile search offering. Often times, people are looking for people, places, and events around them. The capability to seamlessly look up local information based on position location and present the results sorted by context, community ratings, and user preferences is essential. The ability for local advertisers to tap into this new promotion medium provides an opportunity for 1-to-1 marketing.

Mobile Advertising

Advertising also takes a new dimension with mobile. The wealth of user information and the capability to have 1-to-1 relationship with the user makes it a very powerful platform for the multi-billion dollar advertising industry. They get the user demographic information along with the confirmation of a view which is gold for advertisers. Having said that, a few missteps can also alienate users for months.

Coming back to the questions we posed early on, in the short-term, the revenues will be generated by finding sellable goods on the device. There is ample evidence in current incarnation of mobile search deployments that just be making the findability simpler, there is at least 5-10% boost in revenue. If you can build recommendations on top of that, your revenues will increase further, then if you link your silos to cross-promote and cross-sell, another few percentage uptick is experienced. Just mining the existing store will pay off the mobile search investments within weeks, not months. Then extending the search universe to off-deck and the Internet will help user expand their choices which again benefits the eco-system. Then, promotions, advertisements, quad-play, social-networks, user-generated content, .. you get the picture. We are just starting to scratch the surface. And yes, the industry benefits from the tension between operators, OEMs, media giants, and Internet behemoths. In the end, mobile search will help drive quality of content, personalization, and better user experience.

Is that a game you are playing on your BB?

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Gameloft, a leading maker of games for cellphones, plans to announce today that it is bringing its line of mobile games to the BlackBerry in hopes of grabbing a chunk of the devices expanding market.

What to expect at CTIA March 23, 2007

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This week was filled with pre-CTIA briefings, press release and PR onslaught. Some of the themes emerging are:

… more from the show

Third Screen Media and VoiceSignal launch voice-enabled mobile search

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On the heels of the Tellme acquisition, Voicesignal is jumping into the mobile search arena with voice search with VSearch. From their press release:

How VSearch Works
VSearch is the worlds first voice driven mobile search service that allows consumers to find information and mobile content by speaking a search term into the VSearch handset application. Leveraging the familiar directory enquiry format, users can find any local business by stating the location and either the name or category keyword into the phone. The system sends the processed audio information to the VSearch server via the mobile data network where the users query is converted into text by the VSearch speech recognition engine. This unique combination offers the highest accuracy and reliability in all environments for the consumer. The requested listingsalong with relevant, interactive advertisements supplied by Third Screen Mediaare sent to the device and displayed on the screen. The user can review the information, place a call to the business, and get a map of its location and more.

Clearly, there is tremendous activity in the mobile search and advertising arena and I hope to capture and report on the same from CTIA. I can smell the acquisitions coming.

We will have our own “very exciting” announcement (in this space) to make in a few days. Stay tuned.

Wireless Week April 1 Issue

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quoted the stats from our recent update

Free GPS with data services March 21, 2007

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Sprint announced that their customers will be getting free GPS w/ data plans of $20 or higher. While this is quite high, their mind is in the right place and in a few months, this will drop to a point that there will be no additional cost of GPS to the consumer (or to the application provider).

iHollywood Forum’s MoTV Summit next month March 15, 2007

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Our partner iHollywood Forum is hosting its annual summit on Mobile Video and TV aligned with IPTV World - the NAB convention. More details here.

Be sure to check it out.

Verizon vs. Vonage: Where does VoIP stand?

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Pulvermedia is hosting a series of webinars on helping VoIP companies understand the impact of Verizon vs. Vonage ruling. Salient point from the presentation:

Microsoft finally acquires Tellme March 14, 2007

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After months of chatter, MS out-hustled and is acquiring Tellme. Pretty good fit and strengths MS in its struggle against Google. Congrats to Mike, Jeff and the crew over at Tellme.

Search wars

Posted by chetan in : General , 1 comment so far

John Battelle presents a proposal for MS and Yahoo to take on Google. It is nothing new, has been presented before but it illustrates the desperation at Yahoo and MS at the widening gap between them and the Search master. Actually, Steve Flinn posted the comments which are more in line with what’s going to happen

However, at first blush, as a shareholder I would oppose it for two major reasons:

1) Every general wants to fight the last war again, and search is the last war as far as I’m concerned. Personalization is the upcoming war — that’s clearly where Google is heading across all its apps, not just search. And that means that’s not only where advertising is heading, but computing in general. Search will always be important, but recommendations and application level personalization will likely become even more important. I don’t see personalization getting ceded to a JV — it’s too strategic for both Microsoft and Yahoo (and I think Microsoft holds the stronger cards of the two in this area — but Google is clearly the player to beat)

I agree. The online search war is over. Google won. The next battle ground is in “personalization” and “mobile” and how you tie the online and mobile world together. Google hasn’t exactly wowed users with its simplistic offerings in the mobile arena. Their subscriber base is in low millions and presents an opportunity for both Microsoft and Yahoo to build some lead and momentum. They are striking deals with operators that weren’t possible before - yes, they are willing to do white-label deals. Google is also coming around and leaving its arrogance at the door to offer some compromises. In mobile, at least for short-term, it is a distribution and reach game. Mobile Enterprise Search is also an untapped territory for search players and MS is better positioned. MS has done a poor job of leveraging its resources and relationships to come up with a coherent strategy, but the motivation to beat Google keeps them up at night. Interesting battle to watch for the coming months and years.