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Top 3 nations by mobile data revenues for 2006 are - April 8, 2007

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Japan, US, and China .. no surprise there but US is catching up fast with Japan. This and more stats in our upcoming Global Wireless Market update for 2006.

End of Vonage? April 6, 2007

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As i alluded to previously, Vonage is in serious trouble. Vonage is not allowed to sign up new customers while it appeals a court ruling that it infringed three Verizon patents. This is the price the VoiP telephony provider must pay for gaining some breathing space in its appeal against an injunction from using technology “owned” by Verizon.…

Lack of coherent IP strategy comes and haunts the trail blazer.

Shawn Conahan writes April 5, 2007

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This post was going to be called “CTIA 2007 roundup” but while I was writing it, I got Chetan’s “CTIA 2007 roundup” and it was simply better than mine, so I wrote about my favorite party instead. Irrelevant, perhaps, but I think it is an indication that the mobile space is officially sexy. Go read Chetan’s very good synopsis here.

Shawn is CEO, Founder and Chairman of Intercasting.

Thanks Shawn. Read about the party that rocked CTIA and Shawn’s insights from the show.

Carnival of the Mobilists coming to AORTA next week April 4, 2007

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Wap Review hosts the Carnival this week and I am delighted that AORTA is next in line. Please submit your entry as soon as you can. Don’t have one, write one up quickly.

YAMVNO April 2, 2007

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Yet Another MVNO - though this one is with a twist - Sonopia

Bold New DRM Free World

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There were some indications that this would happen sooner rather than later. EMI and Apple announced a shift in the digital music industry.

Sights from CTIA April 1, 2007

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090084079069068067065063059055053051046033031030026025024021020016014012011010009008007001

CTIA Numbers don’t add up March 31, 2007

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CTIA released its 2006 numbers at the show. Some of them don’t add up. For e.g. they noted 233M subs by end of 2006 however their ticker is showing 234M as of March 07. One of them is clearly incorrect. Secondly, they noted that data service revenue was $15.2B. Again, the top 4 operators published numbers added up to $14.4B, rest of the industry (with over 43M subs) generally generates over 10% which takes the numbers to $15.8B which we had earlier reported.

Mobile Search - Improving Findability of Content March 27, 2007

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This article appeared on the launch of msearchgroove.com by Peggy Anne Saltz. We were also quoted in Peggy’s excellent article Mobile Content: More effort than it’s worth?

 

Mobile Search - Improving Findability of Content

An executive at a prominent mobile operator recently asked me – is there any money in Mobile Search? Should we just get Yahoo or Google in here and not worry about it? Is there something at stake here that we should worry about? Mobile Search is a dilemma to many in the value chain. Should they cede control or innovate for the long-term? As the discoverable content increases in depth and breadth, it is inevitable that mobile search will drive user navigation on devices. Whether it is by user keying in a few keywords or short cuts or search engine generating a personalized, to-the-minute user interface that directs user navigation, mobile search strategies will start taking center-stage on majority of decks. Also, advertisers are starting to discover the power of mobile channel to connect with the consumers.

A key problem for the mobile data industry is subscribers trying to find a specific piece of content or a specific application. All of the major operators offer an excellent and expansive range of games, ring tones and many other applications. While choice is great for the consumer, if they can find what they are looking for, the sheer number of options available is bewildering. It is impossible to browse and navigate the labyrinth navigation structures available today. Mobile search helps tie together otherwise silo‟d catalogs and deep navigation trees for ringtones, graphics, games, music, sports, news and other content.

There are several differences between Internet (aka Google) search and mobile search. While Google on desktop might return a useless list of 2M hits (the useful results are generally in the first dozen links), mobile search needs to take in more variables before it figures out the “answer” to the user input. These variables are driven by context, history, preferences, device capabilities, and social network. You weir off a bit and the experience starts to waffle. Understanding “user‟s intent” is key. The business models are also slightly different. While Google might present the paid-search-results on top, on the side or even blended in the main body, search results needs to very optimized and customized to the query and context. In addition, several new models come into play like “click-to-call” where real money is to be made. Some calls such as in real-estate business can yield over $30 per call for referrals. You can do the math. Clearly, we are in the early experimentation phase and some of the high CPMs and CPCs will eventually settle on a more reasonable metrics, but the need and demand is there.
The majority of the searches initially will happen via browser and using keypad input from the user but will gradually be integrated tightly across applications and platforms and will accept voice, image, bar code, and others input mechanisms.

Mobile ‘Long Tail’

We are all used to a hit driven games and ringtones business that is constrained by the limits of deck or storefront menus and by shelf space. Mobile Search helps eliminate the need to market and arrange the storefronts for the lowest common denominator and instead foster up hundreds of niche categories and storefronts. A successful long tail model in mobile will be driven by two core requirements:

  1. Easy access to all of the content in the category being sold. But also must have access to the hits in the category.
  2. Easy ways for content buyers to find the rare stuff in niches. Menus on menus on menus linked from the home page won‟t cut it on a small screen. You can‟t display it all.

Blended results

Most mobile keyword searches will involve answers that come from multiple sources and databases. In such cases, search results are „blended‟ or federated and results collected amongst numerous databases. These databases are all generated by mobile-centric crawlers or filtered from web-centric real-time API feeds or content integration into a catalog.

Search modality

Initially, majority of the searches on the device will happen via a browser. However, in the next few years, search application(s) will be embedded in majority of the devices and will become a standard feature just like SMS or IM clients on the devices today. Other means of input to search would be voice, picture (camera) or bar code (camera, barcode reader). Results from searches could be cached and potential content of interest can be pushed to the user device for quick access. At the end – users really do not care about modality, they care about relevancy.

Finding content from anywhere

Mobile search solution should empower user with flexibility and on-demand capability. If the user is using a desktop, they should be able to send results or customized queries to not only their phones but also to all parties of interest. Similarly, user might be in a car and the situation demands a voice input and text out capability. User should be able to find relevant information by speaking some key words instead of tapping them in.

Running promotions

The search results page can provide an area for carrier driven promotions. The subscriber‟s search term determines which promotion is presented. The process of creating a promotion and tagging it with relevant keywords is performed in the content management system. After being published, retrieval and presentation of a promotion is an automated background process. To stem declining ARPU and grow revenue, one needs to make it easier for consumers to find what interests them by delivering “relevance on top”.

Local search

Local search is an important part of mobile search offering. Often times, people are looking for people, places, and events around them. The capability to seamlessly look up local information based on position location and present the results sorted by context, community ratings, and user preferences is essential. The ability for local advertisers to tap into this new promotion medium provides an opportunity for 1-to-1 marketing.

Mobile Advertising

Advertising also takes a new dimension with mobile. The wealth of user information and the capability to have 1-to-1 relationship with the user makes it a very powerful platform for the multi-billion dollar advertising industry. They get the user demographic information along with the confirmation of a “view” which is gold for advertisers. Having said that, a few missteps can also alienate users for months.

Coming back to the questions we posed early on, in the short-term, the revenues will be generated by finding sellable goods on the device. There is ample evidence in current incarnation of mobile search deployments that just be making the findability simpler, there is at least 5-10% boost in revenue. If you can build recommendations on top of that, your revenues will increase further, then if you link your silos to cross-promote and cross-sell, another few percentage uptick is experienced. Just mining the existing store will pay off the mobile search investments within weeks, not months. Then extending the search universe to off-deck and the Internet will help user expand their choices which again benefits the eco-system. Then, promotions, advertisements, quad-play, social-networks, user-generated content, .. you get the picture. We are just starting to scratch the surface. And yes, the industry benefits from the tension between operators, OEMs, media giants, and Internet behemoths. In the end, mobile search will help drive quality of content, personalization, and better user experience.

Is that a game you are playing on your BB?

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Gameloft, a leading maker of games for cellphones, plans to announce today that it is bringing its line of mobile games to the BlackBerry in hopes of grabbing a chunk of the device’s expanding market.

What to expect at CTIA March 23, 2007

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This week was filled with pre-CTIA briefings, press release and PR onslaught. Some of the themes emerging are:

… more from the show

Third Screen Media and VoiceSignal launch voice-enabled mobile search

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On the heels of the Tellme acquisition, Voicesignal is jumping into the mobile search arena with voice search with VSearch. From their press release:

How VSearch Works
VSearch is the world’s first voice driven mobile search service that allows consumers to find information and mobile content by speaking a search term into the VSearch handset application. Leveraging the familiar directory enquiry format, users can find any local business by stating the location and either the name or category keyword into the phone. The system sends the processed audio information to the VSearch server via the mobile data network where the user’s query is converted into text by the VSearch speech recognition engine.  This unique combination offers the highest accuracy and reliability in all environments for the consumer. The requested listings—along with relevant, interactive advertisements supplied by Third Screen Media—are sent to the device and displayed on the screen. The user can review the information, place a call to the business, and get a map of its location and more.

Clearly, there is tremendous activity in the mobile search and advertising arena and I hope to capture and report on the same from CTIA. I can smell the acquisitions coming.

We will have our own “very exciting” announcement (in this space) to make in a few days. Stay tuned.

Wireless Week April 1 Issue

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quoted the stats from our recent update

Free GPS with data services March 21, 2007

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Sprint announced that their customers will be getting free GPS w/ data plans of $20 or higher. While this is quite high, their mind is in the right place and in a few months, this will drop to a point that there will be no additional cost of GPS to the consumer (or to the application provider).

iHollywood Forum’s MoTV Summit next month March 15, 2007

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Our partner iHollywood Forum is hosting its annual summit on Mobile Video and TV aligned with IPTV World - the NAB convention. More details here.

Be sure to check it out.

Verizon vs. Vonage: Where does VoIP stand?

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Pulvermedia is hosting a series of webinars on helping VoIP companies understand the impact of Verizon vs. Vonage ruling. Salient point from the presentation:

Microsoft finally acquires Tellme March 14, 2007

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After months of chatter, MS out-hustled and is acquiring Tellme. Pretty good fit and strengths MS in its struggle against Google. Congrats to Mike, Jeff and the crew over at Tellme.

Search wars

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John Battelle presents a proposal for MS and Yahoo to take on Google. It is nothing new, has been presented before but it illustrates the desperation at Yahoo and MS at the widening gap between them and the Search master. Actually, Steve Flinn posted the comments which are more in line with what’s going to happen

However, at first blush, as a shareholder I would oppose it for two major reasons:

1) Every general wants to fight the last war again, and search is the last war as far as I’m concerned. Personalization is the upcoming war — that’s clearly where Google is heading across all its apps, not just search. And that means that’s not only where advertising is heading, but computing in general. Search will always be important, but recommendations and application level personalization will likely become even more important. I don’t see personalization getting ceded to a JV — it’s too strategic for both Microsoft and Yahoo (and I think Microsoft holds the stronger cards of the two in this area — but Google is clearly the player to beat)

I agree. The online search war is over. Google won. The next battle ground is in “personalization” and “mobile” and how you tie the online and mobile world together. Google hasn’t exactly wowed users with its simplistic offerings in the mobile arena. Their subscriber base is in low millions and presents an opportunity for both Microsoft and Yahoo to build some lead and momentum. They are striking deals with operators that weren’t possible before - yes, they are willing to do white-label deals. Google is also coming around and leaving its arrogance at the door to offer some compromises. In mobile, at least for short-term, it is a distribution and reach game. Mobile Enterprise Search is also an untapped territory for search players and MS is better positioned. MS has done a poor job of leveraging its resources and relationships to come up with a coherent strategy, but the motivation to beat Google keeps them up at night. Interesting battle to watch for the coming months and years.

Mobile Enablement Platform Content to Grow to $7.4B by 2011

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iSuppli has some interesting forecast on the mobile content market

(Source: iSuppli).

More information here.

CTIA March 13, 2007

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Looking forward to CTIA in a couple of weeks. Always good see friends, colleagues, and the new stuff. Parties are not bad either. Hope to see some of you there. I will be shuttling between Billboard and Mobile Advertising session on Monday and then T-Thu at CTIA. Let me know if you would like to meet one of these days.

Let me know if you would like me to cover any particular company, sub-segment, new entrants, etc. Our CTIA report will shortly after the event.