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New Book: Enterprise Mobility: Applications, Technologies and Strategies August 24, 2008

Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, ARPU, BRIC, Carriers, Enterprise Mobility, European Wireless Market, IP, IP Strategy, Indian Wireless Market, Japan Wireless Market, Location Based Services, MVNO, Mergers and Acquisitions, Messaging, Microsoft Mobile, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Search, Mobile TV, Mobile Usability, Mobile Users, Mobile Wallet, Networks, Patent Strategies, Patent Strategy, Patents, Privacy, Smart Phones, Strategy, US Wireless Market, Unified Messaging, Wi-Fi, WiMax, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 2 comments

IKSMCover-s

Enterprise Mobility: Applications, Technologies and Strategies

IOS Press

Chapter Contribution

“Enterprise mobile product strategy using scenario planning”

SAMIMUNEER (SAP) and CHETANSHARMA

Download Chapter (154 KB)

http://www.chetansharma.com/enterprise_mobility_scenario_planning.htm

Each year, we work on strategies and product plans for our clients around the world that end up touching millions of consumers worldwide and do behind-the-scenes research, due-diligence, and analysis work on several critical deals and transactions that move our industry forward. But, rarely do we talk or write about them, due to obvious reasons.

However, last year, I got an opportunity to briefly write about some of the strategy work. On the request of Dr. Basole at Georgia Tech, my colleague Sami Muneer (Sr. Director, Enabling Solutions at SAP – responsible for all things mobile) and I drew from some of the long-term strategy and product planning work we had done for SAP to put together a paper on “Enterprise mobile product strategy using scenario planning.” SAP is the leading global enterprise player and their view of the world is both comprehensive and long-term. It was a privilege to work with their global team on the project.

Our paper is being published as a chapter in the just released book “Enterprise Mobility: Applications, Technologies and Strategies” (IOS Press, Amsterdam. 272 pages, Editor R. Basole, 2008) as part of The Tennenbaum Institute Series on Enterprise Systems. The chapter is also being published in the special issue of peer-reviewed International Knowledge Systems Management (IKSM) journal published by Georgia Tech.

The book is a collection of 13 chapters from academics and practitioners in enterprise mobility. I often use scenario planning techniques when doing long-term strategic assessment and forecasting. In this chapter, we hope to provide a framework for scenario planning in mobile that can go across verticals, applications, and services.

You can download the chapter here.

IKSM is making available all the chapters online (for free) if you register for a free one year subscription.

For those interested in reading the paper copy can order the book here.

Book Introduction

As the number of enterprises using mobile ICT increases, it becomes imperative to have a more complete understanding of what value and impact enterprise mobility has, what drives and enables it, and in what ways it can and will transform the nature and practices of work, organizational cultures, business processes, supply chains, enterprises, and potentially entire markets. Enterprise mobility is therefore a topic of great interest to both scholars and practitioners. Enterprise Mobility: Researching a new paradigm aims to contribute to and extend both our theoretical and practical understanding of enterprise mobility by exploring the necessary strategic, technological, and economic considerations, adoption and implementation motivators and inhibitors, usage contexts, social implications, human-centered design issues, support requirements, and transformative impacts. The main objective is to discuss applications, technologies, strategies, theories, frameworks, contexts, case studies, and analyses that provide insights into the growing reality of enterprise mobility for scholars and practicing managers. This volume contains thirteen articles from leading scholars and practitioners and includes an examination of the changing nature of work, work practices, and the work environment; a discussion of critical enablers of enterprise mobility; authors exploring strategic considerations; and insightful case studies of enterprise mobility across multiple domains. Together, the articles explore enterprise mobility across the entire continuum.

Enterprise mobile product strategy using scenario planning

Author(s): Sami Muneer and Chetan Sharma

The Mobile industry is changing at a rapid pace and so is the behavior of enterprise workforce which uses mobile technologies. When planning for a long-term product roadmap, one has to consider a myriad of evolution trends and forecasts to determine the probable list of product functionality and their introduction timing in the lifecycle of the product. One has to look at the technology trends by market, the competitive landscape, and the mobile worker adoption trends. However, one can only come up with a prioritized list of capabilities by taking into context the company’s own core competencies, skill sets, and overall mission. This paper looks at how mobile product companies can use scenario-planning methodology to formulate their product strategy and roadmap.

The listing of the chapters is as follows:

Your feedback is always welcome.

Thanks.

Chetan Sharma

US Wireless Data Market Update - Q2 2008 August 10, 2008

Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, ARPU, BRIC, CTIA, Carriers, Devices, Enterprise Mobility, European Wireless Market, Indian Wireless Market, Japan Wireless Market, Location Based Services, M&A, Mergers and Acquisitions, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Search, Mobile Usability, Smart Phones, Speaking Engagements, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 4 comments

 

US Wireless Market Q2 2008 Update Aug 2008 Chetan Sharma Consulting
View SlideShare presentation (tags: us wireless market arpu)

 

Download PDF (2.5 MB)

Download PPT (1.5 MB)

http://www.chetansharma.com/usmarketupdateq208.htm

The US wireless data market grew 40% in Q208 compared to Q207 to reach $8.2B in data revenues. The total for 2008 stands at $15.7B for the first six months, 38% higher than the total for the same time period in 2007. The news of Alltel acquisition, iPhone 3G, and the flat rate pricing wars dominated the news. Though the infatuation for iPhone was a few degrees lower, Apple managed to keep the device front and center of the news cycles. US again exceeded Japan in mobile data service revenues for the quarter and the market is on track to reach $34B in data revenues for 2008.

Global update

          More details in our worldwide wireless data market update in our Global Wireless Data Market Update Sept 2008.

Your feedback is always welcome.

Thanks.

Chetan Sharma

Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this note are our clients.

The Larry Weber Show: Mobile Advertising and Wireless Technology August 5, 2008

Posted by chetan in : 3G, AORTA, Carriers, European Wireless Market, Intellectual Property, Microsoft Mobile, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Search, Mobile TV, Speaking Engagements, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment

The legendary Larry Weber interviewed me for his Show “MarketEdge with Larry Weber.” It is live now over at Webmaster Radio. The topic of discussion was of course “Mobile Advertising and its implications to the mobile ecosystem.”

Enjoy!

 

Mobile Advertising & Wireless Technology
Chetan Sharma on Mobile Advertising, the topic of his new book called Wireless Broadband Technology: Conflict and Convergence

Show Host: Larry Weber
Show: Market Edge

Channel: Internet Marketing

 

Bellagio Presentation August 4, 2008

Posted by chetan in : 3G, ARPU, BRIC, Carriers, European Wireless Market, Indian Wireless Market, Intellectual Property, Japan Wireless Market, Location Based Services, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Search, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment
UNF Mobile Services Evolution Bellagio Presentation
view presentation (tags: connection ehealth)

2008 in review - revisiting annual predictions July 31, 2008

Posted by chetan in : 3G, AORTA, ARPU, Carriers, Intellectual Property, MVNO, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Search, Mobile TV, Mobile Usability, US Wireless Market, Unified Messaging, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment

At the turn of the year, we asked a number of industry insiders to opine on upcoming trends for 2008. Below is the summary of survey. Full results here.

sresults1

sresults2

Perhaps, it is time to revisit. Updated comments in italics.

1. Will Google introduce a Google Branded Phone in 2008?

Will it? Wont it? 44.5% gave it a 75% or higher chance of happening while 40% thought it aint happening. GPhone is a temptation Google will find hard to resist though a lot will depend on how various initiatives and partnerships shape-up on the ground. In any case, expect another major announcement in the next 2-3 months.

Opinions were mixed. Given the problems with the ecosystem, delay in launch, and unclear business models, while the probability of GPhone launch has gone up, chances for a 2008 launch remain low. Google would want the ecosystem to give it a shot before deciding to compete with them.

2. Will Google play to win in the 700MHz Spectrum Auction?

Google has played the spectrum chess game effectively. Almost 50% respondents gave it a 75% or higher chance of Google winning the bid. Though expectations are high, Google is unlikely to play to win. Services business is not their cup of tea, they could still fund the Clearwire-Sprint deal but that investment can be spent differently to get better end-results, i.e. mobile ad revenue.

We didn’t believe that Google is playing the game to win, only wanted to be an irritant to his fellow brethren. As expected, they funded the Clearwire-Sprint deal.

3. Will Microsoft launch its own mobile phone?

Unless Google comes out with GPhone, Microsoft will stay content with its operator distribution strategy. 63% of respondents gave it less than a 25% chance of Microsoft releasing their own phone. If GPhone comes out and gets some traction, expect Microsoft to get its fast follower strategy into high gear.

I think Microsoft is taking a “wait and see” approach on this one and is likely to come out with something once GPhone is out. Remember Zune.

4. Will Mobile Payments get traction in North America and Western Europe?

Only 9% thought it is a sure bet for 2008. True mobile commerce hasnt really started in the western world. While there are significant movements, 2008 will just be a lay the groundwork year for mobile payments.

Even from “laying the ground work” point of view, we seem to be behind. Number of trials and activity though, expect to see some noticeable launches in first half of 2009.

5. Will WiMAX regroup from its setbacks?

Only 35% gave it a 75% or higher chance (of WiMAX resurrecting itself esp. in the US in 2008). A lot depends on how Mr. Hesse deals with Sprints WiMAX business. Indications are there will be a deal with Clearwire to off-load the risks via some external investment (Google?).

Well, Mr. Hesse dealt his hand and now all eyes are on Mr. McCaw - can he deliver?

6. Will Helio survive 2008?

Almost 70% respondents thought Helio wont make it. Given the flameout of some of the prominent new-generation MVNOs, it is hard to see how Helio will see 2009. It will all come down to how persistent is SK Telecom. Earthlink doesnt have the bank balance to keep funding this initiative.

Well, majority thought, Helio won’t be around and SKT realized it too and sold the unit to Virgin Mobile. At least, it didn’t have to file chapter 11.

7. Will Verizon truly open-up its garden for third-party visitations?

Only 5% thought it is a sure bet for 2008. Verizons open posturing was more to ward off any regulators and to improve its image. There is unlikely to be any meaningful progress on this front this year.

Hardly anyone thought that VZ is serious and not much has happened on that front just yet.

8. Will 2008 be the inflection year for Mobile Advertising?

42% gave Mobile Advertising a 75% or higher chance for rapid growth. Market will mature, more consolidation, some privacy gaffes but overall things are looking up for mobile advertising.

There is definitely growth in the Mobile Advertising segment. Inflection point is in the eyes of the beholder. I say, we will make pretty good progress this year but mobile ad spend will still be < 1% of the overall mix. Still lots of foundation work need to be done by the industry. Almost every serious carrier, advertiser, agency, middleware, online player is involved in mobile advertising and it is just a matter of time before things get sorted out.

9. Will Femto-Cells gain any significant momentum in 2008?

It will be an introduction and experimentation year, so no significant traction is expected. Over 52% thought Femto-Cells will be just a buzz word in 2008.

Well, Sprint launched Femto-Cells but it will be a while before they become pervasive.

10. Will Nokia be able to extract iPhone-style rev-share from carriers in 2008?

Less than 20% thought Nokia will be able to do an Apple when it comes to rev-share arrangements. For OEMs, going direct to the consumers was considered treachery to the sacrosanct relationship with the operators. Until Apple showed up with iPhone. Now, Nokia is putting its services strategy in motion and is building a direct relationship with the consumers worldwide and it has a good shot at pulling it off though it will be a long haul.

Given that Apple prudently reversed its business model, the chances of any other OEM extracting iPhone 1.0 type rev-share are going to almost zero.

11. Will Palm survive 2008?

Only 8% gave it a 100% chance of surviving 08 as an independent entity. It will be difficult for Palm to stay in a status-quo mode. They desperately need a hit device that can give them some breathing room.  Given all the operational and strategic problems the company is having, a sale is likely.

Most thought (including yours truly) that Palm will have a difficult time surviving 08. However, with some of its recent launches have put some life back into the company and it might go on for a few more quarters. The problems and challenges are still quite stark.

12. Will iPhone truly open up?

Over 45% thought iPhone wont open-up in any meaningful way. Apple has built-up one of the most profitable closed empires in the digital world. Are they about open things up? While the iPhone SDK is scheduled for early 08, dont hold your breath on accessing the critical native APIs.

Apple’s Appstore is clearly an idea of the best open closed systems out there. If the closed garden is done well with open flowers can flourish. The system still closed but you can access a number of device APIs to make it worthwhile.

13. Will there be more unsubsidized devices introduced in the US market in 2008?

Almost 49% thought we are likely to see another unsubsidized device in the US market this year. Nokia is looking to go direct and some GSM handset manufacturers are likely to entertain the idea of testing the market with unsubsidized devices.

Given that Apple quickly reversed itself with iPhone 3G, we are unlikely to see unsubsidized devices for some time to come.

14. Will Mobile TV move the needle in 2008?

Almost 70% thought mobile TV wont make much of a difference in 08.Though AT&T is slated to introduce MediaFLO to join Verizon in the Mobile TV services market, lack of devices and better pricing models will hinder wide adoption in 2008. However, downloadable video and VOD content will experience significant growth.

Mobile TV remains plagued with unreasonable business models and pricing plans. Until that is fixed, this will remain a niche hobby for most.

15. Will Android make a dent in handset shipments in 2008?

Only 15% gave it a more than 75% chance this year. It is going to take some time for Android plans to mature and materialize. Dont see any material impact in 08.

We didn’t think Android will make progress in 08 beyond some minor launches. Even they seem uncertain and 08 is not their year.

We will do another survey towards the end of the year, look forward to your participation then. Thanks.

eHealth Connection in Bellagio, Italy July 28, 2008

Posted by chetan in : 3G, ARPU, BRIC, Carriers, Intellectual Property, Mobile Ecosystem, Worldwide Wireless Market , 4 comments

Week 3 kicked off today in Bellagio, Italy as part of The Rockefeller Foundation’s month long conference on eHealth.

Some more info below:

mHealth and Mobile Telemedicine - an Overview

Background Papers: 

Sizing the Business Potential.pdf

Relationship among Economic Development.pdf

mHealth: A potential tool in India.pdf

mHealth: A Developing Country Perspective

Current Status of eHealth Initiatives in India

Mobile Services Evolution: 2008 - 2018

Related Links: 

mHealth and Mobile Telemedicine - Conference Wiki

Organized by the United Nations Foundation, Vodafone Group Foundation and Telemedicine Society of India
July 27-August 1, 2008

Mobile electronic health tools such as cell phones and telemedicine technologies are rapidly transforming the face and context of health care service delivery around the world. Currently, there are over 3.5 billion mobile phones in use across the globe; this figure is set to double in the next decade. At the same time, telemedicines role in clinical care, education, research, and training in the health sector continues to grow from continent to continent.

Mobile phone use in particular is exploding across the developing world, offering the opportunity to leapfrog other applications and services on both the health and technology fronts. As United Nations Foundation President Timothy E. Wirth emphasizes, the power of these technologies to improve health and the human condition cannot be underestimated: Modern telecommunications, and the creative use of it, has the power to change lives and help. solve some of the worlds biggest challenges.

Telemedicine is the use of medical information exchanged from one site to another via electronic communications to improve patients health status or for educational purposes. It includes consultative, diagnostic, and treatment services. Mobile health information technology (mHealth) typically refers to portable devices with the capability to create, store, retrieve, and transmit data in real time between end users for the purpose of improving patient safety and quality of care. The flow of mobile health information is characterized by portable hardware coupled with software applications and patient data that flows across wireless networks. Mobile health enables clinical access to a variety of major software applications central to patient care and subsequently increases clinicians reach, mobility, and ease of information access, regardless of location. For example, a clinician might use a mobile device to access a patients electronic health record (EHR), write and transmit prescriptions to a pharmacy, interact with patient treatment plans, communicate public health data, order diagnostic tests, review labs, or access medical references. Data transmission is realized by technologies common in everyday life including blue tooth, cell phone, infra-red, wifi, and wired technologies, all of which operate as part of a network. Mobile devices can be helpful across the health care spectrumtransmitting vital information quickly during an acute public health crisis or being used for on-going needs such as education and training. When utilized for patient care, mobile devices are credited with improving patient safety by eliminating errors commonly associated with paper-based medical records and enhancing the continuity of care. In addition to improved patient outcomes, workflow and administrative efficiencies from the use of mobile devices can produce cost savings for the user or user organization.

Both telemedicine and mobile health are becoming more common around the globe and many countries, particularly in the developing world, are interested in the reality and potential of mobile technology and telemedicine convergence.

This conference week will build the case and define the roadmap for mHealth and mobile telemedicine in the Global South by

Examining the current and future landscape of mHealth and mobile telemedicine

Assessing the priority issues for mHealth and mobile telemedicine

Documenting the impact of mHealth on development and health care delivery and reach

Discussing mHealth and telemedicine markets and scaling, highlighting Global South opportunities and challenges

Focusing on imperatives for national-level health data collection process through mobile devices

Exploring critical success factors and incentives for local implementations

Creating a collective declaration of action

Seeding a multi-sector partnership dedicated to designing, funding, and advancing mobile service projects in the Global South

The United Nations Foundation (UN Foundation), the Vodafone Group Foundation, and the Telemedicine Society of India will co-convene the mHealth and Mobile Telemedicine conference. The UN Foundation acts to meet the most pressing health, humanitarian, socioeconomic, and environmental challenges of the 21st century through the support of the United Nations, new and innovative public-private partnerships, advocacy, and grantmaking.

The Vodafone Group Foundation and its technology partnership with the UN Foundation, established in 2005, have created strategic technology programs to strengthen the UNs humanitarian efforts worldwide.

The Telemedicine Society of India was created in 2006 with the objectives of promoting and encouraging development, advancement, and research in the science of telemedicine and the application of telemedicine technology in clinical care, education, and research in the health sector of India.

I will be presenting my paper on Mobile Services Evolution 2008-2018 tomorrow AM. If you are interested in the slides, let me know.

New Paper: Mobile Services Evolution 2008-2018 July 11, 2008

Posted by chetan in : 3G, AORTA, ARPU, BRIC, CTIA, Carriers, Intellectual Property, Japan Wireless Market, MVNO, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Smart Phones, Speaking Engagements, US Wireless Market, Wi-Fi, WiMax, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 2 comments

Mobile Services Evolution 2008-2018

Bellagio, Italy. July 13 - Aug 1, 2008

This project has been made possible by the generous funding from THE UNITED
NATIONS FOUNDATION

ehealth_connection_cov

Download PDF

 UNFpaper-s

 

http://www.chetansharma.com/UNF-MobileServicesEvolution.htm

This weekend in Bellagio, Italy begins a 4 week long dialogue on the subject of eHealth. The Conference - Making the eHealth Connection: Global Partnerships, Local solutions is being organized by the eminent Rockefeller Foundation. It will bring in experts and organizations from around the world to discuss, share, develop, agree on solutions going forward. Each week deals with a different nuance of the eHealth framework. This will allow for an in-depth study and discussion. Full conference info here.

Week 3 deals with mHealth and Mobile Telemedicine being organized by The UN Foundation, Vodafone Group Foundation, and the Telemedicine Society of India. As part of this conference The Rockefeller Foundation and its partners have released a series of white papers on various subjects. I was asked by The UN Foundation to look into the potential Mobile Services Evolution going forward and how a platform could be developed that will enable a number of applications focused on enterprise, health, public safety and associated sub-segments. While it is difficult to predict with any precision what might happen 10 years from now, one can try to understand the evolution of technologies, business models and their interrelated ecosystems and see the impact on various vertical segments where we use technology to solve some basic problems. Most of the time, technology itself doesn’t cut it, it requires partnerships, collapsing of the bureaucracy, innovative funding means, and just the burning desire to make a difference that matter the most. I strongly believe in Mobile’s central role in a number of social and public services. Mobile Services Evolution 2008-2018 is a small effort to forward that discussion.

Abstract

Over the last 10 years, the progress made in the global mobile industry has been truly stunning. Mobile device ownership has gone from being a luxury item to necessity as the feverish rate of adoption has spread mobile technologies into every corner of the world. As we look into the next 10 years, it is certain that the mobile phone will be used for much more than just voice communications. There is an opportunity for private institutions and public enterprises to build a vision of cohesive mobile services platform that enables and engages the masses to both fundamentally enhance the quality of their daily existence as well as lead to new opportunities globally. This paper takes a look at the potential evolution of mobile technology and services over the course of the next 10 years and discusses an M-Services framework for building and deploying diverse mobile services. The paper also looks into the challenges of such an endeavor and steps that will be needed to achieve the vision.

Table of Content

 

Abstract 3
Introduction 4
Mobile device: The Remote control of our lives 5
Mobile Technology Evolution 2008-2018 7
Deployment and adoption of mobile technologies in the developing countries 9
Mobile Services Platform 10
What does it take to make it happen? 15
Conclusions and Recommendations 18

 

Download Complete Paper - PDF

Thanks to THE UNITED NATIONS FOUNDATION for making this work possible. I will be presenting the paper at the conference later this month.

Your feedback is always welcome.

Thanks

Chetan Sharma

NY Times Article: Apple Aims for the Masses With a Cheaper iPhone June 10, 2008

Posted by chetan in : 3G, Carriers, Smart Phones, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment

This article by John Markoff appears in todays NY Times. I think Apple has done a pretty good job with the 3G iPhone launch. Steve Jobs is quite pragmatic and adjusts his strategy based on real data. Changing

the business model and pricing is testament to that.

clip_image001

Kimberly White/Reuters

Images from a Major League Baseball game were shown on an iPhone during Steven P. Jobss speech on Monday, when he revealed a new model of the phone, priced as low as $199.

Apple Aims for the Masses With a Cheaper iPhone

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/10/technology/10apple.html

By JOHN MARKOFF

Published: June 10, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO Steven P. Jobs, chief executive of Apple, introduced a new cheaper iPhone model that navigates the Internet more quickly, expanded its distribution overseas and displayed a range of new applications and services in order to establish Apple as a major player in the cellphone industry.

Apple, the maker of consumer electronics and computer equipment, had set a goal of selling 10 million iPhones in 2008, which would establish it as one of the major smartphone makers in the less than two years since it began shipping the original iPhone. Apple has sold six million phones globally since its introduction.

Analysts said that Mr. Jobs, one of the worlds best product marketers, had largely accomplished what he set out to do and they welcomed the moves he outlined in a presentation before software developers on Monday.

This is the phone that has changed phones forever, Mr. Jobs said.

Mr. Jobs said the new iPhone 3G, to be available in the United States through AT&T beginning on July 11, will sell for $199 for the 8-gigabyte model and $299 for a 16-gigabyte model. He said the biggest barrier to people buying the phone had been price.

Analysts and industry executives said they believed the lower prices would bring in new consumers who had been put off by its $399 price. The price is clearly correct, said Mike McGuire, a research vice president at Gartner, a market research firm based in San Jose, Calif.

As widely anticipated, the phone will run on so-called 3G wireless networks that allow much faster Internet connections than the original iPhone. During a 110-minute presentation, Mr. Jobs went to some lengths to compare the speed of the new iPhone 3G to the current phone and to rival phones like the Nokia N95 and the Palm Treo 750. He called downloads amazingly zippy.

The phone, sleeker than the original, will also have built-in Global Positioning System capability to allow location-based services. It will also have a longer battery life in some cases, five hours for talking on the 3G network and 24 hours for playing music on the phone.

The announcements came on the opening day of Apples Worldwide Developers Conference, where several developers showed off software that turned the iPhone into a game console and a musical instrument. Others demonstrated programs that used the phones ability to locate its users on a map.

At one point during his demonstration, Mr. Jobs showed a tracking feature making it possible to watch on a Google map as an iPhone user drove down Lombard Street, the twisty tourist attraction in San Francisco.

Mr. Jobs also indirectly challenged Microsoft with a mobile Web service call MobileMe, intended to permit a user to synchronize a phone, calendar and contact information on the iPhone and multiple devices including PCs and other iPhones. The service, which will costs $99 a year and comes with 20 gigabytes of data storage, is similar to a service offered by Microsoft.

Apples obstacle in offering the new service is that its competitors, like Google, offer similar services for less. Google offers 10 gigabytes of e-mail storage for $20 a year.

Apple announced that it would begin selling the iPhone in 70 countries this summer; the current phone is being sold in six countries.

Given the feature set, ecosystem partners, launch countries and the pricing of the iPhone, they are likely to hit the 10 million mark by September-October, said Chetan Sharma, an independent consultant on the wireless data communications industry.

The company, based in Cupertino, Calif., announced on Monday in a regulatory filing that it would sell the 3G phones under different business arrangements in the United States. In the past, Apple shared service plan revenue with AT&T and other cellular firms. The second-generation iPhone will be sold without the recurring revenue streams and without the exclusivity arrangements it was previously able to command.

While trying to convince cellular carriers around the world that they should carry the iPhone, Apple realized that it needed to change the financial deal that it had with the carriers in the first six countries.

Weve changed our business model, from getting a cut of the future revenues to just a more traditional model, Mr. Jobs said in an interview on Monday. Thats enabled us to roll out around the world much faster.

AT&T said it would subsidize the phones to attract consumers. Under the plan, unlimited iPhone 3G data plans for consumers will be available for $30 a month, in addition to voice plans starting at $40. Business users will be charged $45 a month for data.

By giving back the revenue to the carriers, which they may use for subsidies, Apple is hoping to dramatically increase its volume, as well as sell more Macintosh computers to iPhone users.

Its not about the iPhone, said Charles Wolf, a financial analyst at Needham & Company. Theres a tradeoff that Apple is making. The iPhone halo effect will be far more powerful than the iPod halo effect was. Its going to stimulate Mac sales among iPhone users.

Damon Darlin contributed reporting.

3G iPhone today? June 9, 2008

Posted by chetan in : 3G, AORTA, Carriers, Mobile Content, Mobile TV, US Wireless Market , add a comment

In all likelihood, King Jobs will be unveiling the 3G iPhone today. Given the user behavior on iPhone, almost any company involved in mobile data and value added services has built an app for the phone even though the subscriber base is limited. The reason is user experience - many times better than anything else available in the market. Like this new service called vSNAX from Rhythm New Media - a mobile advertising company.

vSNAX_video_controls_Rhythm NewMedia

(Source: Rhythm New Media)

NY Times: The Guessing Game Has Begun on the Next iPhone May 28, 2008

Posted by chetan in : 3G, Carriers, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, US Wireless Market, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment

John Markoff of NY Times interviewed me for this piece. It will appear in tomorrow’s newspaper.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/28/technology/28apple.html

The Guessing Game Has Begun on the Next iPhone

By JOHN MARKOFF

SAN FRANCISCO Can Steven P. Jobs top the iPhone … with another iPhone?

Last June, Mr. Jobs began selling what has become one of the most talked-about consumer products in history. Now he faces a new challenge as Apple prepares to introduce an updated version of the phone next month.

After almost a year of strong sales that have made it one of the dominant smartphones in the United States, the iPhone has settled down to a less-than-spectacular pace: roughly 600,000 units a month, according to the company.

Apple, based in Cupertino, Calif., had shipped about 5.5 million phones by the end of March, the most recent figures it has released. It sold just 1.7 million phones in the first three months of this year, meaning it must sell more than 8 million phones to reach Mr. Jobss publicly stated goal of selling 10 million iPhones in 2008.

Theyre going to have a difficult time hitting that number, said Edward Snyder, an analyst at Charter Equity Research. He said that Nokia, the worlds largest maker of cellphones, sells more phones every week than Apple has sold since the iPhones introduction.

So what could Apples impresario have up his sleeve to pick up the pace and to keep the second-generation iPhone from being a letdown?

Although the company will not publicly confirm the arrival of a second iPhone, Apple watchers have concluded that a new version will be introduced June 9, the opening day of Apples Worldwide Developers Conference.

Apparently in preparation for the event, stocks of the existing iPhone have been dwindling in the last month.

Although AT&T stores still have phones in stock, according to a company spokesman, the supply has largely dried up in Apples retail outlets, and the phones are no longer available through the companys online store.

Apple may be trying to avoid the anger it faced last September when it cut the iPhones price by $200 just two months after it went on sale, making early buyers feel cheated. Mr. Jobs offered those customers a $100 store credit.

Cutting down on supply means fewer angry buyers when their new phone is suddenly obsolete.

You can say what you want about Steve Jobs, but hes learning from his mistakes, said Roger Entner, a senior vice president at IAG Nielsen, a market research firm. They are cleaning out the supply channel.

Even as supplies shrink, Apple has been signing a series of deals with cellphone network providers around the world. On Tuesday the cellular operator TeliaSonera said it would offer the iPhone in seven countries, including Sweden, Norway and Denmark.

The only major countries without an iPhone distribution agreement are Japan, Russia and China.

Meanwhile the Apple rumor mill has wound up to a fever pitch in recent weeks with speculation about the new phones features.

One Web site that tracks imports even decided that shipping manifests indicated that the company had already brought millions of iPhones into the country in dozens of seaborne shipping containers. Industry executives, however, said this would be an odd move for Apple, which in the past has introduced products by air shipping the first batch at the last moment.

Both Mr. Jobs and Randall L. Stephenson, the chief executive of Apples partner AT&T, have promised a new iPhone model this year that would run on a high-speed wireless data network. AT&T is building such a network, which uses technology known as 3G and is intended to support a range of new applications, including mobile digital video. The company said last week that the network would be largely finished by the end of June.

But analysts say faster downloads may not be enough to touch off a new wave of consumer interest in the iPhone.

Subscribers dont care what the radio interface of their cellular phone is, Mr. Snyder said.

If he is to rekindle the excitement that greeted the iPhones introduction, Mr. Jobs is likely to need something else. So far, he has been successful in hiding any surprise features from the dozens of Web sites and bloggers that track the companys new products.

There has been speculation about a higher-resolution camera, possible support for digital video recording, a slightly bulkier and more curved case, and the addition of a global positioning system receiver that would allow new Web services tied to a persons location.

Mr. Jobs is certain to make much of the availability of many new iPhone programs that Apple will begin selling through its iTunes store in the coming months. He could also accelerate sales by cutting the phones price or letting operators offer subsidies, as they do with many other phones. In the United States the phone now costs $399 or $499 depending on the amount of memory.

Bells and whistles aside, the new phone may have a few new shortcomings as well. Company executives have acknowledged that the new 3G networks will be a challenge for its engineers, because using them burns up more battery power compared with the slower Edge networks used by current iPhones.

IPhone users have turned out to be prodigious consumers of wireless data. For example, the iPhone customers of T-Mobile, the German cellular operator, consume 30 times more data than its other wireless customers, according to Chetan Sharma, an independent wireless industry analyst.

Mr. Sharma estimates that iPhone users in the United States consume two and a half to three times more data than users of other cellphones. Faster networks could widen that gap and further extend the iPhones influence in the telecommunications world.

IPhone is not only having an impact on data revenues, he said, but also on device design, mobile advertising road maps, and applications and services that are being contemplated for the future.

US Wireless Data Market Update - Q1 2008 May 18, 2008

Posted by chetan in : 3G, AORTA, Carriers, Enterprise Mobility, European Wireless Market, Indian Wireless Market, Intellectual Property, International Trade, Japan Wireless Market, M&A, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Search, Mobile TV, Mobile Usability, US Wireless Market, Wi-Fi, WiMax, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment

US Wireless Data Market Update - Q1 2008

Download PDF (2.32 MB)

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http://www.chetansharma.com/usmarketupdateq108.htm

The US wireless data market grew 38% in Q108 compared to Q107 to reach $7.5B in data revenues. iPhone is not only having an impact on data revenues but also on device design, mobile advertising roadmaps, and applications and services that are being contemplated for future. US exceeded Japan in mobile data service revenues for the quarter and the market is expected to reach $34B in data revenues in 2008.

Global update

          More details in our worldwide wireless data market update in our Global Wireless Data Market   Update Mar 2008.

Your feedback is always welcome.

Chetan Sharma

Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this note are our clients.

Interview with Padmasree Warrior April 23, 2008

Posted by chetan in : 3G, AORTA, Carriers, European Wireless Market, Intellectual Property, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, US Wireless Market, Wi-Fi, WiMax, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 2 comments

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Last year, I had a chance to interview Padmasree Warrior who was CTO of Motorola at the time and since then she has moved on to Cisco (as their CTO). The interview was conducted for the PiTech Magazine but for various delays the print edition never got released. I am publishing the interview in its entirety for our readers. Padmasree is a terrific technology leader and there are a lot of good insights in her answers.

1. What are some of the exciting initiatives you and your team are working on at Motorola?

The next decade is about the Mobile Revolution. It is quite remarkable how something as simple as the cell phone is transforming the human race by connecting the entire planet. Today almost half the planet communicates via a mobile device. The social, economic, cultural and technological implications of this are profound, particularly in under-developed countries of the world. The Motorola team is working on delivering products and experiences to enable Seamless Mobility which is our vision to enable access to communication, information and entertainment whenever, wherever and however people need it.

For example, recently we announced the world’s first wind and solar commercial network GSM cell site in Namibia. By incorporating renewable energy technology into this cell site, we created a cost-effective solution for operators in the region who find fuel generators too costly and dont want to wait a long time for a main grid connection. Most importantly, weve created the infrastructure for people to be able to communicate with each other. Thats powerful and exciting.

2. What will the mobile device in 2012 look and feel like? What new features and functionality will be introduced by then?

The mobile device in 2012 will become an extension of your persona. In other words, it will know your preference, know where you are and will understand the context of what you need. This will simplify how people access communication, information and entertainment. For example, the mobile device will be your computer, wallet, TV, camera, music player, FM radio, alarm clock, flash light, calendar, game system and so on. By 2012 the mobile device will become your remote control for life.

3. How does Always On environment change how media and entertainment will evolve over the course of next five years? What does digital convergence mean to you?

The on-demand genie is out of the bottle and there is no way it is going back in. This fundamental shift in consumers expectations of being able to watch video when they want is having profound impact on nearly every technology component of every network that is capable of delivering a moving series of images . . . LANs, WANs and wireless.

I see convergence not as technology-driven, but experience driven. Convergence is the mobilization, socialization and personalization of content and communicationsthe technologies are being driven by the desired experiences. This is how Motorola researchers are going about their thinking. With deep expertise across mobile devices, home networking components, set-tops and next-generation networks, Motorola is focused on creating an integrated experience network topology that will excite the consumers and grow business for every player in the new media ecosystem.

4. If you were advising entrepreneurs, which problems would you advise them to tackle? Where is the most innovation needed? What are some of the problems that our industry hasnt solved? Whats holding us back?

There are many problems to be solved, some are technological and others regulatory. I will answer this question more from a technological perspective. My advice to entrepreneurs is to focus on value added applications for the mobile platform that has many constraints such as battery life, screen size etc. Just forcing the internet designed for a PC onto the mobile device will not work. We need to think about innovation in areas of internet mobility, content mobility and broadband mobility. Areas of particular challenge are power management and battery life. Another exciting opportunity is to think about how this device may be used, when Wireless Broadband becomes a reality with WiMax. I dont think anything is holding us back. I am an optimist I believe the human mind can solve most problems. The scale of the mobile revolution is so massive that innovation will occur at many levels both in developed and emerging markets simultaneously.

5. At Java One you talked about Platform Disturbia. How do we solve the problem (or ease the pain) of industry fragmentation at multiple levels? Or is it a fact of life?

“Platform Disturbia” which is my anecdotal way of describing the fragmentation in the mobile industry can be a great opportunity for developers, but brings with it significant challenges. As content and communications go mobile - How does one move content easily and transcode it from one format to another? How does one set the hooks between different networks and mobile devices so the hand off is seamless? With personalization, where should the authentication and personalization engines be located - on the mobile device or on backend servers? Should context and location awareness work with authentication; how much should they reveal and to whom?

It is hard enough dealing with the sheer number of different mobile handsets, screens and separate operating systems. Now we want those devices to talk effortlessly with enterprise infrastructures - to enable secure communications and data sharing with field service people. We want to extend into the home and be able to upload and download content automatically from set top boxes. And deliver a whole new generation of location and context-based services that will make mobile devices even more personal and interactive.

The way to ease the pain of industry fragmentation is through the adoption of standards and for large innovative companies to be transparent about intellectual property rather than extract high royalty rates for patented technologies. The former accelerates time to market and therefore expands market creation with a unified approach. Of course, companies must protect their intellectual property and get fair, reasonable payment for their patent rights. However, often fragmentation occurs when competing technologies are created to avoid high royalty taxation.

The mobile world is a huge and divergent ecosystem where innovation needs all of us to be both visionary and pragmatic - so that we can move to Platform Utopia!

6. Indias wireless market has been exploding at a rapid pace. Could you please discuss th