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TMO launches 3G, finally! May 5, 2008

Posted by chetan in : AORTA, 3G, 4G , add a comment

T-Mobile became the last of the major carriers to launch 3G in the US market. However, the launch is limited to NYC and is planning to expand the network in other cities as the year progresses. 4 UMTS handsets are available. The lack of network coverage means no immediate impact of the announcement but by the end of the year, TMO will start contributing to the overall 3G growth in the country.

Interview with Padmasree Warrior April 23, 2008

Posted by chetan in : AORTA, Carriers, 3G, Mobile Advertising, US Wireless Market, Mobile Content, Mobile Entertainment, WiMax, European wireless market, Mobile Applications, Worldwide Wireless Market, Mobile Ecosystem, Wi-Fi, Wireless Value Chain, 4G , 1 comment so far

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Last year, I had a chance to interview Padmasree Warrior who was CTO of Motorola at the time and since then she has moved on to Cisco (as their CTO). The interview was conducted for the PiTech Magazine but for various delays the print edition never got released. I am publishing the interview in its entirety for our readers. Padmasree is a terrific technology leader and there are a lot of good insights in her answers.

1. What are some of the exciting initiatives you and your team are working on at Motorola?

The next decade is about the Mobile Revolution. It is quite remarkable how something as simple as the cell phone is transforming the human race by connecting the entire planet. Today almost half the planet communicates via a mobile device. The social, economic, cultural and technological implications of this are profound, particularly in under-developed countries of the world. The Motorola team is working on delivering products and experiences to enable “Seamless Mobility” which is our vision to enable access to communication, information and entertainment whenever, wherever and however people need it.

For example, recently we announced the world’s first wind and solar commercial network GSM cell site in Namibia. By incorporating renewable energy technology into this cell site, we created a cost-effective solution for operators in the region who find fuel generators too costly and don’t want to wait a long time for a main grid connection. Most importantly, we’ve created the infrastructure for people to be able to communicate with each other. That’s powerful and exciting.

2. What will the mobile device in 2012 look and feel like? What new features and functionality will be introduced by then?

The mobile device in 2012 will become an extension of your persona. In other words, it will know your preference, know where you are and will understand the context of what you need. This will simplify how people access communication, information and entertainment. For example, the mobile device will be your computer, wallet, TV, camera, music player, FM radio, alarm clock, flash light, calendar, game system and so on. By 2012 the mobile device will become your remote control for life.

3. How does “Always On” environment change how media and entertainment will evolve over the course of next five years? What does digital convergence mean to you?

The on-demand genie is out of the bottle and there is no way it is going back in. This fundamental shift in consumers’ expectations of being able to watch video when they want is having profound impact on nearly every technology component of every network that is capable of delivering a moving series of images . . . LANs, WANs and wireless.

I see convergence not as technology-driven, but experience driven. Convergence is the mobilization, socialization and personalization of content and communications…the technologies are being driven by the desired experiences. This is how Motorola researchers are going about their thinking. With deep expertise across mobile devices, home networking components, set-tops and next-generation networks, Motorola is focused on creating an integrated experience network topology that will excite the consumers and grow business for every player in the new media ecosystem.

4. If you were advising entrepreneurs, which problems would you advise them to tackle? Where is the most innovation needed? What are some of the problems that our industry hasn’t solved? What’s holding us back?

There are many problems to be solved, some are technological and others regulatory. I will answer this question more from a technological perspective. My advice to entrepreneurs is to focus on value added applications for the mobile platform that has many constraints such as battery life, screen size etc. Just forcing the internet designed for a PC onto the mobile device will not work. We need to think about innovation in areas of internet mobility, content mobility and broadband mobility. Areas of particular challenge are power management and battery life. Another exciting opportunity is to think about how this device may be used, when Wireless Broadband becomes a reality with WiMax. I don’t think anything is holding us back. I am an optimist – I believe the human mind can solve most problems. The scale of the mobile revolution is so massive that innovation will occur at many levels both in developed and emerging markets simultaneously.

5. At Java One you talked about Platform Disturbia. How do we solve the problem (or ease the pain) of industry fragmentation at multiple levels? Or is it a fact of life?

“Platform Disturbia” which is my anecdotal way of describing the fragmentation in the mobile industry can be a great opportunity for developers, but brings with it significant challenges. As content and communications go mobile - How does one move content easily and transcode it from one format to another? How does one set the hooks between different networks and mobile devices so the hand off is seamless? With personalization, where should the authentication and personalization engines be located - on the mobile device or on backend servers? Should context and location awareness work with authentication; how much should they reveal and to whom?

It is hard enough dealing with the sheer number of different mobile handsets, screens and separate operating systems. Now we want those devices to talk effortlessly with enterprise infrastructures - to enable secure communications and data sharing with field service people. We want to extend into the home and be able to upload and download content automatically from set top boxes. And deliver a whole new generation of location and context-based services that will make mobile devices even more personal and interactive.

The way to ease the pain of industry fragmentation is through the adoption of standards and for large innovative companies to be transparent about intellectual property rather than extract high royalty rates for patented technologies. The former accelerates time to market and therefore expands market creation with a unified approach. Of course, companies must protect their intellectual property and get fair, reasonable payment for their patent rights. However, often fragmentation occurs when competing technologies are created to avoid high royalty taxation.

The mobile world is a huge and divergent ecosystem where innovation needs all of us to be both visionary and pragmatic - so that we can move to Platform Utopia!

6. India’s wireless market has been exploding at a rapid pace. Could you please discuss the role of wireless communications in India’s economy? What role does India play in the global wireless market?

Yes, the wireless communications market is certainly growing very rapidly in India – nearly every global manufacturer has production and research presence in the country. India adds almost 6 million subscribers every month – that is equivalent to connecting the entire country of Denmark in India every month!

This rapid adoption of mobile communications will have a positive impact on economic empowerment over the long run. This is already starting to happen in other emerging markets. For example, merchants in Zambia use mobile phones for banking. Health workers in S. Africa use them to update records while visiting patients. In Tanzania fishermen use mobile phones to get market, weather and the price of fish while still off shore. Already mobile connectivity is generating big economic benefits according to a London Business School study. The study says that in a typical developing country, a rise of 10 mobile phones per 100 people boosts GDP growth rate by 0.6%. That may not seem much but compounded over a few years it adds up to a substantive increase in the standard of living

India plays a critical role in the global wireless market because the scale of people yet to be connected is large. This demand will become a hotbed for creativity and innovation. When we connect the billions of people, we will see new use cases with mobility. Looking forward, the opportunity in India and support of the government is quite strong. The Indian government has set the target of 500 million subscribers by 2010.

7. How do you manage uncertainty? How do you keep the team of 26,000 focused and motivated?

Managing uncertainty is exactly what innovation is all about. Not knowing the answers, taking risks, disrupting the status quo and challenging conventional wisdom are necessary ingredients to invent and innovate. As inventors, it is our responsibility to think beyond the possible and break barriers to create the never before imagined solution.

However, with this creativity comes the need of one shared vision. At Motorola, our shared vision is of a world in which communications transcends the barriers of space and time to deliver an on-demand consumer experience – what we call seamless mobility. It is this vision that connects our work and keeps our 26,000 focused on one end goal.

Most importantly, I surround myself with very smart people – individuals who are not only experts in their fields, but also possess strong business acumen blended with an entrepreneurial spirit to succeed. It is tough to find people like that, but ultimately people are the backbone of an organization, they are the catalysts for growth and success. Leadership is not about YOU but them – the teams you lead. My advice is to leaders – be humble and don’t be afraid to hire talent that is better than you.

  1. How do you keep up with all the information and technology evolution around you? You have your own blog; do you have some favorites that you read regularly?

I stay connected – to people and information. I read just about anything and everything that comes my way, it is almost addictive. I also spend a lot of time meeting customers, visiting universities across the world, chatting with students - all the way from elementary to post doctoral and interacting with industry thought leaders. This has exposed me to some truly remarkable individuals from all fields. Recently while in San Francisco, Dr. Jill Tarter invited me to the SETI Institute where I met with some brilliant astronomers and scientists and gained a unique perspective on their contributions and achievements.

I also stay connected to information - from blogs to technical papers to trade journals to books, there is always something fascinating that sparks my interest (and keeps me busy on those long cross-Atlantic flights!). Yes, I have my own blog called “Bits at the Edge” - http://blogs.motorola.com/author/padmasree-warrior/. I read many blogs and enjoy the perspective of different bloggers, whether they agree with my opinions or not.

  1. What are the key ingredients of a strategy to outsmart competition?

I always say a Vision without a plan is just a Dream. The key to success is Think Big and Act Fast. Focus on delivering value by solving relevant problems.

10. How can technology companies better understand the needs of customers?

It may sound simple but I would say that we could better understand the needs of customers by being better listeners - especially earlier in the product development cycle. As corporations grow, it is easy to get stifled by what is going inside our own walls and forget to open the doors in the early stages of concepts, to understand the pulse of the marketplace.

At Motorola, we are shifting our focus to delivering enhanced experiences to our customers. Similarly, our research efforts stay focused on discovering the problems of tomorrow and then creating solutions to solve these problems.

Let’s take the example of the original RAZR – our researchers perceived that consumers were in search of a phone that would fit in their shirt pocket; our scientists then brainstormed and developed the solution of an embedded antenna that allowed for a slimmer form.

11. How do you manage work-life balance?

I actually dislike the word “balance” in this context, because it conjures up images of conflict. My work is an integral part of my life and so are my family, my community, my friends and my self. I prefer to think of this more as an integration challenge. I have one life in which I must INTEGRATE each of these. Therefore, it is not important HOW we decide to apportion the time spent on each of these because there is no right answer. The challenge is to COPE with the guilt that comes with however we choose to spend time on each of these. Over the years, I have tried not to feel guilty about things that I am unable to do, but rather enjoy the experiences of what I am able to do. Recently I had to miss our senior leadership strategy session, instead I chose to attend my son’s middle school commencement where he received a President honor award. I had a blast being a proud mom that evening.

12. You are an inspiration to many. Who inspires you? Who has been your role model(s) and why?

Mother Teresa continues to be an inspiration to me. I do not see her just as a martyr but as a pioneer and a bold risk taker. She looked at the world holistically and her work broke down barriers – race, color, ability, wealth and economic status. She left her home country and comfort zone to improve the lives of the poorest of the poor.

13. Who are some people you would really like to meet with that you haven’t been able to meet yet?

Restricting my wishes to people that are living, I would like to meet Nelson Mandela who single handedly and irreversibly influenced the course of apartheid in the world. I would also like to meet Scott Adams – I Iove Dilbert!

14. What’s the last book that you read that really made a difference in your life?

The Alchemist – poetic style of prose that is thought provoking, makes you pause.

15. What are some of your favorite memories of being at IIT?

Dating my then boyfriend (now husband), all night chat sessions in the dorm room, the perennial hikes to street cafes at odd hours in search of chai (tea) that had nothing at all to do with drinking tea per se, heated debates about everything from solving world hunger to cutting classes the next day.

CTIA Wireless 2008 Roundup April 4, 2008

Posted by chetan in : AORTA, Carriers, Enterprise Mobility, Speaking Engagements, M&A, 3G, Devices, Mobile Advertising, US Wireless Market, Mobile Content, Mobile Entertainment, Mergers and Acquisitions, International Trade, Location based Services, MVNO, Indian Wireless market, BRIC, WiMax, Mobile Gaming, ARPU, Japan wireless market, European wireless market, Mobile TV, Mobile Applications, Smart Phone, Worldwide Wireless Market, Mobile Ecosystem, Speech Recognition, Mobile Search, Wi-Fi, Wireless Value Chain, 4G, CTIA , 2 comments

CTIA Wireless 2008 Roundup

http://www.chetansharma.com/ctiawireless.htm

The Sin City hosted CTIA Wireless 2008 earlier this week. On Wednesday morning, just before leaving for the convention center, I caught some portion of Ben Bernanke’s congressional testimony on the US economy woes. Few minutes later, strolling the show floor, talking to various companies, and hearing the keynotes, it seemed like I was on a different planet. Either someone failed to deliver the memo or the wireless industry is resilient enough to weather the turmoil in the financial and housing markets with some ease. The show was bigger with more attendees, the booths were returning to their glamorous heydays of the past, and the general buzz and energy at the show all seem to indicate the industry is going to do just fine and is primed for further growth. The general themes were around open network and access, user experience, and bandwidth.

This note summarizes our impressions from the show.

CTIA Wireless in Pictures

First let’s do the numbers: CTIA released their semi-annual statistics on the US market. In summary: For 2007, $23B in data revenues, 2 trillion in MOU, $139B in total service revenues, 48B txt messages/month. (We released our US Market and Global Market updates last month)

Keynotes: In terms of style, Sir Richard Branson stole the show with his pompous exuberance and pep talk (the talk of imaginary flight to Mars was hilarious; investors in Microgin and Viroo must be upset). For substance, Marco Boerries, President, Yahoo Mobile gave a nice compact overview of Yahoo initiatives and products in the market which are pretty darn good. (Marco wrote an opinion piece for our Mobile Advertising Book – “The future of Advertising is in the Consumers’ Pockets”). Yahoo has sewn together a number of deals worldwide that gives them a potential reach of over 600M users.

Vodafone is one operator which has been quite vocal in stating its positions on future infrastructure roadmap and data opportunities. Arun Sarin is probably the only CEO of major global operator who has publicly stated that Mobile Advertising will constitute a significant portion of their revenues in the coming days (Arun’s point person on the initiative Richard Saggers also wrote an opinion piece for our book “Opportunities for Mobile Advertising.” Let me know if you are interested in reading these two opinion pieces).

Microsoft’s Robbie Bach had the tough task of following the Branson-fest. He announced the arrival of a full-blown browser (finally!) for windows mobile. Also, the new windows mobile device from Sony Ericsson (Xperia) looks pretty darn cool. FCC Chairman Martin announced the rejection of Skype petition on the carterphone principle (to Skype’s dismay, it was not an April fool’s joke). Clearly, the definition of “open” is in the eye of the beholder. It means different things to different people. It has also been clear from the various activities and keynotes that the industry is trying its utmost to remain a “Self-regulated” industry and stay away from the clutches of eager politicians.

Lowell McAdam, CEO of Verizon Wireless conducted a panel with CEOs from Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, and Nortel and probed them on the 4G migration path, trends in applications and services, and contrasts in adoption and introduction of new technology in various parts of the world. Final day was marked by what is now becoming a trend - keynotes from politicians. This time around Sen. Edwards and Sen. Thompson graced the podium.

Mobile Advertising: In talking with numerous players in the value chain from small developers to large operators to ad networks to media companies, the impression was that things have matured over the last six months. It was gratifying to hear that some companies are adopting strategies and recommendations we propose in our book. Still, some of the basic problems remain – majority of the inventory remain unsold indicating weak demand, CPM rates are still over-rated though they are starting to come down, and fragmentation continues to remain an issue.

The good news is that the size of the mobile campaign budgets are getting bigger with several seven figure RFPs floating around. While some companies are still trying to throw a lot at the wall in the hope that something sticks, others are maturing as companies and are more focused in their positioning and product roadmaps. Integration of various channels is starting to appear on the horizon and the integration with the publishers is becoming tighter. The issue of measurement and auditing standards remains a big issue and unfortunately not much progress to report. There are carrier initiatives and various industry bodies are taking the challenge to rally the ecosystem, but, frankly, consolidation of such efforts is necessary, we can’t afford yet another layer of fragmentation in an already complex ecosystem.

We were interviewed on Mobile Advertising prior to the show by several publications. Some of the articles were published this week to coincide with CTIA

Wireless Wave (CTIA) – Moving Targets: Mobile marketing reaches consumers on their terms by Lynn Thorne

BrandWeek – Mobile Marketing – Fantasy vs. Reality by Ken Hein

Wall Street Journal – Personalized promotions: Sending the right ads to your phone – Peggy Anne Salz

NFC: There were many more NFC-enabled devices on display this time and vendors were talking and demoing NFC and Biometrics based payment solutions. While there are handsets on the roadmap, this market is still very nascent in North America and Western Europe.

Inspiration: The inspiration for new and creative services still comes (at least for yours truly) from Japan (and Korea). I love spending time in DoCoMo’s booth for it gives a glimpse into what’s to come. No other company better understands the development of devices, services and applications that overlay on lifestyles than DoCoMo (e.g. a wellness handset that is a pedometer, heart rate monitor, body and bad breath monitor and yes, you can make voice calls too). They view wireless air-interfaces as nothing more than enablers to solutions that enhance daily lives. Various device manufacturers also displayed some really cool devices. The quality and diversity of handsets that have been introduced into the global markets over the last four quarters is just astonishing. The cycle of innovation and time-to-market keeps on accelerating.

Femto Cells: A number of players like Airwalk, Airvana, and others are bringing Femto cell solutions to the market and carriers are starting to pull this into their strategy as well and look forward to deployments beyond the trials.

4G: LTE vs. WiMAX (vs. UMB): Since the decision of Vodafone and Verizon to support LTE, UMB has been disappearing from the discussion. The 4G discussion is convulsing around LTE and WiMAX now (though Nortel did indicate its support TD-SCDMA as a 4G candidate). Without a doubt the operator community is rallying behind LTE and there might be an opportunity to finally converge to a single standard (haven’t we seen this movie before) but frankly, the advances in silicon to integrate multiple radios has made the standards debate less relevant. WiMAX has forced acceleration of LTE standardization process but is starting to lose its time (and cost) advantage. All eyes are on Sprint’s XOHM business rollouts in the coming days and months.

Accessories: I have never seen so many accessory and reseller outfits at a CTIA show. Business must be booming.

Best Booth: Thought there were several good layouts, LG and Samsung continue to impress with their creativity and “art of marketing.”

Developer and Publisher woes: Along with John Philips (Astraware) and Peter Baldwin (Cellmania), I helped facilitate a few developer session at the Mobile Jam Session organized by WIP. The issues of distribution, discovery, and monetization remain challenging for the small developers worldwide. Even with million user base, they are finding it difficult to monetize but we did discuss a number of success stories. The core elements of success that emerged from the discussion were: choosing the right market, embedding viral component into everything you throw out there, there is no room for mediocrity, and personalizing and customizing go a long way to get traction. An interesting tidbit: the number of page views for mobile MySpace app is a magnitude higher on off-deck vs. ondeck. Several of the companies are trying mobile advertising with varying degrees of success. After spending 4 hours with the developers, I sat on a carrier panel discussing mobile advertising. The contrast between the two worlds was so apparent. Clearly, more needs to be done to help both sides understand each other a bit better.

Green CTIA: There is a stronger emphasis on recycling and contributing to save the environment. The show itself is a big resource hog, so every bit helps.

Alternate Mobile Devices: The universe of alternate devices is expanding. Companies are buying wholesale data packages from the operators and integrating broadband chipsets into hardware to do digital signage (ICG), M2M (Sensorlogic), PND and much more. The definition of being “mobile” keeps on changing.

On Being “Open”: Obviously, given the recent activity around openness, getting a penny for each time the word was uttered by a speaker would have paid off for a lifetime of CTIA trips. While talk is cheap, demonstrable progress is being made by the likes Yahoo, Apple (btw, 3G iPhone is on its way), and AOL.

Another MVNO experiences turmoil: Movida - a Spanish focused MVNO which has garnered almost 300K subs filed for chapter 11.

Voice is becoming mainstream: With the product launches from Nuance, SpinVox, Vlingo, Jott, Yahoo, and many others, voice based navigation and its tighter integration with data services is becoming mainstream.

Where are the opportunities? Last week, I was moderating a panel with executives from AOL Mobile, T-Mobile, Motricity, and Formotus and the themes that emerged were around platform play, user experience, and productivity. At CTIA, in addition to these areas, there was a lot of discussion around social networking (though the market is being saturated with the MoSo noise). It is also clear that we are moving into the phase of “aggregation of fragmentation” with initiatives from Yahoo, AOL, and Google dominating the landscape.

Home Screen Effect: I have been talking about using the home screen for driving data usage for the last 8 years. I think we will see good innovation this year on that front starting with Yahoo’s One Platform. There are several other initiatives in the works where operators and OEMs will be deploying frameworks and technologies to bring information to a “click-less” idle screen environment.

Overall, no major news but industry stays vibrant, healthy, and exciting.

Your feedback is always welcome.

Chetan Sharma

Disclosure: Some of the companies mentioned in this note are our clients.

Global Wireless Data Market Update 2007 March 27, 2008

Posted by chetan in : AORTA, Infrastructure, Carriers, Security, Speaking Engagements, M&A, 3G, Partnership, Devices, Mobile Advertising, US Wireless Market, Mobile Content, Mobile Entertainment, Mergers and Acquisitions, Location based Services, MVNO, Indian Wireless market, India, BRIC, WiMax, Mobile Gaming, Networks, ARPU, Japan wireless market, European wireless market, Mobile TV, mobile users, Mobile Applications, Worldwide Wireless Market, Mobile Usability, Mobile Ecosystem, Speech Recognition, Mobile Search, Wi-Fi, Wireless Value Chain, 4G, CTIA , 7 comments

Global Wireless Data Market Update 2007

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http://www.chetansharma.com/globalmarketupdate2007.htm

As you read this End of Year (EOY) 2007 Global Wireless Data Market update this week, somewhere in India, a new subscription will catapult India over the US as the number 2 global wireless market. 2007 was a banner year for global wireless data market. The global service revenues for the year touched $700 billion, the data service revenues were more than $120 billion, China signed its 500 millionth subscription, and both India (in feb 08) and the US crossed the 250 million subscription mark. 2007 continued to enhance mobile data’s role in the operator ecosystem with approx 17% of the revenue is coming from data services.

For some leading operators, data is now contributing up to 35% of the revenues however increase in data ARPU is not completely offsetting the drop in voice ARPU. From the true and tested SMS messaging to new services such as Mobile TV, Enterprise apps, and others, different services helped in adding billions to the revenues generated for 2007. Japan and Korea remain the envy of the global markets and the countries to study and learn from w.r.t. new services and applications. The US market has been steadily making strong comeback and for the first time exceeded Japan in service revenue generated from mobile data.

Chetan Sharma Consulting conducted its semiannual study on the global mobile data industry. We studied wireless data trends in over 40 major countries - from developed and mature markets such as Japan, Korea, UK, and Italy to hyper growth markets such as China and India. This note summarizes the findings from the research.

Your feedback is always welcome.

Chetan Sharma

Disclosure: Some of the companies mentioned in this note are our clients.

US Wireless Market Update - 4Q07 and 2007 March 10, 2008

Posted by chetan in : AORTA, Strategy, Carriers, M&A, 3G, Devices, Mobile Advertising, US Wireless Market, Mobile Content, Mobile Entertainment, Mergers and Acquisitions, Location based Services, MVNO, Indian Wireless market, India, BRIC, WiMax, Mobile Gaming, Japan wireless market, European wireless market, Mobile TV, Mobile Applications, Smart Phone, Worldwide Wireless Market, Mobile Usability, Mobile Ecosystem, Microsoft Mobile, Mobile Search, Wireless Value Chain, 4G , 3 comments

US Wireless Market Update - 4Q07 and 2007

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http://www.chetansharma.com/usmarketupdateq407.htm

The US wireless data market grew 55% in 2007 ending the year with $24.5 billion in data services revenues with 4Q yielding $6.9B. 2007 also saw significant industry milestones like: iPhone launch, US crossing 250 million subscriptions, 3G penetration in the US touching 25% subscriber base, consternation around 700 MHz spectrum auction, MediaFLO launch, Android launch, Nokia crossing 40% market share, WiMAX and Femto Cell trials, and much more. US almost equaled Japan in mobile data service revenues for the year (rounding error and currency fluctuation difference). With several significant launches coming up in 2008, US remains one of the most attractive wireless data markets.

Global update

          More details in our worldwide wireless data market update coming out later this month.

Your feedback is always welcome.

Chetan Sharma

Recap of Pacific Northwest Wireless Summit January 22, 2008

Posted by chetan in : AORTA, Strategy, Carriers, Speaking Engagements, 3G, Mobile Advertising, US Wireless Market, Indian Wireless market, WiMax, ARPU, European wireless market, Mobile Applications, Worldwide Wireless Market, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Search, Wi-Fi, Wireless Value Chain, 4G , add a comment

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Beautiful Vancouver, BC hosted the first Pacific Northwest Wireless Summit 16-17. I got up early at 4 and by 4:30 (yes in the morning) was on my way up north. A nice 3 hr drive into the city.

On 16th the conference hosted the leadership summit of prominent folks in the wireless industry from Northwest. I was invited but couldn’t make it. 17th was the main conference while 18th was devoted for investment related discussions. There were keynote presentations spread throughout the day from experienced professionals to young entrepreneurs, a pretty good mix of apps, services, and infrastructure discussion. Some of the most interesting ones were given by Peter Howley, Chairman of Success Generation Systems and Fred Ghahramani, cofounder, AirG.

Conference was divided into the technology track and the business track. I participated mostly on the business track so missed out the technology discussion. The day started with a small presentation I gave on Mobile Advertising which was the first time I was sharing some of the research from our upcoming Mobile Advertising book.

Then, Olivier Vincent of Canpages discussed the role of local content in advertising. Following the two presentations we went straight into the exciting panel discussion. Alfredo Tan, Sr. Director at Yahoo! Mobile and Matt Snyder who recently was very active Nokia Mobile Advertising efforts (and now runs his consulting company) joined in with moderator Michael Bidu.

We had a very engaging discussion on the state, potential, opportunities, and the risks in mobile advertising. We could have gone for hours. The key points I drew from the discussion were that we are early but things are growing fast and as long as we take care of fragmentation and privacy issues, mobile advertising has a strong future ahead.

The second session was moderated by Fred of AirG with Alfredo, Trevor Doerksen (Mobovivo), and Stephen Nykolyn (Material Insight) on the panel. Fred was very keen on the carrier being the dumb-pipe debate trying to corner the panelists into forecasting the fate of the operators in the next few years and like able politicians, no-one attempted to bite.

There was a panel on Mobile Trends and Insights which also led into the discussion of why foreign companies don’t do so well in developing markets. Lack of local presence and strategy is the main reason.

Next, I moderated a panel on Understanding Mobile Asia with panelists - Asokan Thiyagarajan, Motorola, David Dai, CellOn China, and Karl Weaver, Newport. Again, we could have gone for a long time as there is lack of understanding of the Asian markets - China, India, Japan, and Korea. We discussed stats, business models, technologies, strategies for companies to succeed in these markets.

Caroline Lewko has been the fearless leaders of the developers and her work at WIP Connector has helped numerous companies and individuals. She moderated a discussion on go-to-market strategy.

By now, it was time to head back. After managing through the city traffic, it was a smooth ride back after crossing the border.

All-in-all a great start to what I hope will be an annual event.

Pacific Northwest Wireless Summit January 15, 2008

Posted by chetan in : AORTA, Strategy, Middleware, Enterprise Mobility, Security, Speaking Engagements, 3G, Devices, Mobile Advertising, US Wireless Market, Mobile Content, Mobile Entertainment, Location based Services, Indian Wireless market, Mobile Gaming, ARPU, Japan wireless market, European wireless market, Mobile Applications, Worldwide Wireless Market, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Search, Wireless Value Chain, Privacy , 1 comment so far

Looking forward to meeting new friends and colleagues at the upcoming PNWS conference in beautiful Vancouver, BC this Thursday.There are some really great speakers and panelists. I have the privilege to present, participate, and moderate in two of the panels.

Mobile Marketing and Advertising

I will be sharing some research from our upcoming book on Mobile Advertising and then participate in a panel discussion with Alfredo Tan, Yahoo! Mobile, Matt Snyder, ADO Strategies (formerly with Nokia), and Olivier Vincent, Canpages. The panel is moderated by Michael Bidu of WINBC.

Understand Mobile Asia

I will be moderating this panel consisting of Asokan Thiyagarajan, Motorola, David Dai, CellOn China, and Karl Weaver, Newport Technologies.

If you would like to see any specific questions answered, please let me know. I will do a conference report later this weekend.

Apart from these panels, there are other panels on Mobile Commerce, Mobile Entertainment and Social Networking, Mobile Trends, Insights, Undeserved Vertical Markets, Mobile Enterprise, Disruptive Technologies, Smart DNAs, Wireless Innovation and Accelerated Commercialization, Go-to-market strategy. CEOs and executives from prominent companies in the region are going to be there. There are keynotes throughout the day including Luni from Medio, Fred Ghahramani, AirG, and Sue Abu-Hakima, Amika Mobile.

Caroline Lewko of WIP and WINBC fame also be moderating a couple of sessions.

There will be discussion about 2010 Olympics as well.

All in all a very packed day from 8am to 9pm and then a mixer that will probably go till midnight.

Hope to see some of you there.

Mobile Industry Predictions - 2008 January 1, 2008

Posted by chetan in : AORTA, Carriers, Middleware, Security, M&A, 3G, Mobile Advertising, US Wireless Market, Mobile Content, Mobile Entertainment, Mergers and Acquisitions, Location based Services, MVNO, Indian Wireless market, BRIC, WiMax, Mobile Gaming, ARPU, Japan wireless market, Unified Messaging, Messaging, European wireless market, Mobile TV, Mobile Applications, Smart Phone, Worldwide Wireless Market, Mobile Usability, Mobile Ecosystem, Microsoft Mobile, Speech Recognition, Mobile Search, Wi-Fi, Wireless Value Chain, 4G, Privacy , 7 comments

I never think of future, it comes soon enough – Albert Einstein

First things first. Wish you a very happy and successful 2008.

Before we look at what’s to come, let’s do a quick wrap-up of the year that was.

2007 will clearly be remembered as “the year of iPhone.” While there were several other “events/trends of interest” through-out the year, nothing captured the imagination of the world like the iPhone. It was significant for another big reason – it had a profound impact on the business model and ecosystem dynamics. Q4 2007 was also significant for the deafening roar that resonated around “Openness”.

Steve Ballmer exclaimed mobile to be the next battleground while Eric Schmidt pondered why mobile phones are not free (subsidized by Google ads of course).

Google played its chess game effectively and though it is unlikely to play to win the 700 MHz auction or even if they do win would be able to do anything substantive in the short-term, they did, however, with Android and spectrum gambit, force some of the regulation-wary operators to take a stance on openness. Nokia is putting together a brilliant services strategy that looks to connect directly to the consumer. Competition and coopitition will have a different meaning going forward.

Things were looking positive for WiMAX until the end of the year when Clearwire was left standing on its own. It will look towards Google, Sprint, Motorola, and others to rescue its fate.

Mobile Advertising was hailed as a great savior of mobile content and mobile revenues in general. Blyk even launched an advertising-based MVNO. We made significant headway in energizing the sub segment but the tough problems of privacy, education, control, fragmentation, and user experience remain. LBS picked up steam and mobility started to get into the alternate consumer device universe.

In terms of actual dollars, mobile data market continued its steady growth with substantial shifts in revenue towards non-SMS data applications and services. Several operators are doing $2B/quarter+ in data revenues. Several subscription milestones throughout the year: 3B worldwide, 500M China, 250M US, 225M India. 3G continued to inch towards mass-market in western markets (20-25% penetration) while in Korea and Japan, it was getting hard to find people without 3G (70%+ penetration).

Among other events of significance: Cincinnati Bell and T-Mobile launched UMA devices, Motorola lost its Mojo, Amp’D and Disney Mobile shut down, MediaFLO launched, mCommerce initiatives took hold, China continued to delay 3G, WM got updated, Yahoo cemented some impressive operator deals as GYM got more active in mobile, UMPC fizzled, Mobile Web 2.0 got into the industry physce, LTE got embraced worldwide, M&A galored, IP scuffles continued, Muni projects went into coma, and DRM-adorned content became a thing of the past.

2008 will be a pretty eventful year from several perspectives: business models, user experience and expectations, ecosystem posturing, disruption, and friction. How are things going to shape up? What will be hot and what will fade into oblivion? How will competition shape up the new sub-segments? We put some of the questions to our colleagues in the industry. This survey was a bit different in the sense that the movers and shakers (and folks from the companies discussed here) and industry insiders participated. We were able to glean some valuable insights from their choices and comments. Participants (n=196) were folks from across the mobile value chain and from around the world.

Many thanks to everyone who participated.

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(click for larger image)

Three names were drawn for a copy of our upcoming book “Mobile Advertising” (co-authored with Joe Herzog and Victor Melfi, John Wiley & Sons, 432 pages, Feb 2008).

The winners are:

  1. David Cushman, Director, Emap

  2. Larry Shapiro, VP, Disney, and

  3. Keith Kostuch, SVP, Alltel

Congrats and Thank you.

Now onto the survey analysis.

Figures above and below summarize the responses. We requested respondents to rate the probability of an event happening in 2008 on a scale 1 to 5. 1 being “Not a chance” to 5 being “100% probability” The figure above summarizes the overall probability of the event happening. The figure below provides the breakdown of responses.

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1. Will Google introduce a Google Branded Phone in 2008?

Will it? Won’t it? 44.5% gave it a 75% or higher chance of happening while 40% thought it ain’t happening. GPhone is a temptation Google will find hard to resist though a lot will depend on how various initiatives and partnerships shape-up on the ground. In any case, expect another major announcement in the next 2-3 months.

2. Will Google play to win in the 700MHz Spectrum Auction?

Google has played the spectrum chess game effectively. Almost 50% respondents gave it a 75% or higher chance of Google winning the bid. Though expectations are high, Google is unlikely to play to win. Services business is not their cup of tea, they could still fund the Clearwire-Sprint deal but that investment can be spent differently to get better end-results, i.e. mobile ad revenue.

3. Will Microsoft launch its own mobile phone?

Unless Google comes out with GPhone, Microsoft will stay content with its operator distribution strategy. 63% of respondents gave it less than a 25% chance of Microsoft releasing their own phone. If GPhone comes out and gets some traction, expect Microsoft to get its “fast follower” strategy into high gear.

4. Will Mobile Payments get traction in North America and Western Europe?

Only 9% thought it is a sure bet for 2008. True mobile commerce hasn’t really started in the western world. While there are significant movements, 2008 will just be a “lay the groundwork” year for mobile payments.

5. Will WiMAX regroup from its setbacks?

Only 35% gave it a 75% or higher chance (of WiMAX resurrecting itself esp. in the US in 2008). A lot depends on how Mr. Hesse deals with Sprint’s WiMAX business. Indications are there will be a deal with Clearwire to off-load the risks via some external investment (Google?).

6. Will Helio survive 2008?

Almost 70% respondents thought Helio won’t make it. Given the flameout of some of the prominent new-generation MVNOs, it is hard to see how Helio will see 2009. It will all come down to how persistent is SK Telecom. Earthlink doesn’t have the bank balance to keep funding this initiative.

7. Will Verizon truly open-up its garden for third-party visitations?

Only 5% thought it is a sure bet for 2008. Verizon’s open posturing was more to ward off any regulators and to improve its image. There is unlikely to be any meaningful progress on this front this year.

8. Will 2008 be the inflection year for Mobile Advertising?

42% gave Mobile Advertising a 75% or higher chance for rapid growth. Market will mature, more consolidation, some privacy gaffes but overall things are looking up for mobile advertising.

9. Will Femto-Cells gain any significant momentum in 2008?

It will be an introduction and experimentation year, so no significant traction is expected. Over 52% thought Femto-Cells will be just a buzz word in 2008.

10. Will Nokia be able to extract iPhone-style rev-share from carriers in 2008?

Less than 20% thought Nokia will be able to do an Apple when it comes to rev-share arrangements. For OEMs, going direct to the consumers was considered treachery to the sacrosanct relationship with the operators. Until Apple showed up with iPhone. Now, Nokia is putting its services strategy in motion and is building a direct relationship with the consumers worldwide and it has a good shot at pulling it off though it will be a long haul.

11. Will Palm survive 2008?

Only 8% gave it a 100% chance of surviving 08 as an independent entity. It will be difficult for Palm to stay in a status-quo mode. They desperately need a hit device that can give them some breathing room.  Given all the operational and strategic problems the company is having, a sale is likely.

12. Will iPhone truly open up?

Over 45% thought iPhone won’t open-up in any meaningful way. Apple has built-up one of the most profitable closed empires in the digital world. Are they about open things up? While the iPhone SDK is scheduled for early 08, don’t hold your breath on accessing the critical native APIs.

13. Will there be more unsubsidized devices introduced in the US market in 2008?

Almost 49% thought we are likely to see another unsubsidized device in the US market this year. Nokia is looking to go direct and some GSM handset manufacturers are likely to entertain the idea of testing the market with unsubsidized devices.

14. Will Mobile TV move the needle in 2008?

Almost 70% thought mobile TV won’t make much of a difference in 08.Though AT&T is slated to introduce MediaFLO to join Verizon in the Mobile TV services market, lack of devices and better pricing models will hinder wide adoption in 2008. However, downloadable video and VOD content will experience significant growth.

15. Will Android make a dent in handset shipments in 2008?

Only 15% gave it a more than 75% chance this year. It is going to take some time for Android plans to mature and materialize. Don’t see any material impact in 08.

Of course, 15 questions can’t cover the whole industry. As pointed out our respondents, there are a number of other issues and opportunities that will shape the ecosystem - Rise of Facebook as social networking OS for mobile (social networking as a whole starts to go mobile), LBS beyond navigation, Rev-share shuffles, Chinese OEM start to become prominent in the western world, China and India continue to dominate in net-adds, Mobile device security becomes a nightmare for corporate IT, Consumers wake up to mobile privacy snafus and risks, Will Android spread its tentacles beyond nicheosphere, 3G iPhone, Does China Olympics hold any surprises for the mobile industry? Launch of projection handsets, NFC handsets, IMS .. and much much more ..

All in all, consternation and debate will continue into 2008. We will analyze, dissect, and report as events unfold in the new year.

Look forward to the continuing dialogue and meeting with you in person.

Your feedback is always welcome.

Chetan Sharma

Mobile Advertising Book: The Chapters December 31, 2007

Posted by chetan in : AORTA, Carriers, 3G, Mobile Advertising, US Wireless Market, Mobile Content, Mobile Entertainment, MVNO, Indian Wireless market, European wireless market, Mobile Applications, Worldwide Wireless Market, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Search, Wireless Value Chain, 4G , 1 comment so far

As promised, some more info on the TOC.

Mobile Advertising - Table of Contents

From Cautious Optimism to Contextual Nirvana

Chapters

1. History of Advertising

Learning lessons from the past is important—hence Chapter 1. As new technologies have driven new media, it has always taken awhile for the technologists and advertisers to understand each other. In putting mobile advertising into a basic historical framework, we hope to show that the basic objective of getting people’s attention and trying to influence their behavior has not changed. All that ever changes is the way the objective can be reached.

2. A Perspective from the World of Web Advertising

In Chapter 2, we look at the powerful dynamics that the Internet drove around digital advertising and consumer control, and their overall impacts to the world of media and advertising. There were critical tipping points on the Internet that helped large-scale digital advertising become possible. The advent of a true digital age, as defined and driven by the Internet, is a powerful, positive, undercurrent for the eventual success of mobile media and advertising. We begin to lay out a baseline of how mobile advertising is affected by these dynamics and how we can leverage them.

3. A Five Points Framework

Once the world moves to digital media, a whole new set of metrics can be applied. In Chapter 3, we cover the measurement effects of the powerful new baseline shift toward digital that was put in place by the Internet advertising ecosystems. With this powerful paradigm shift comes media audience fragmentation. And new media rock stars, the analytics geeks. We have a new benefit of mobile interactivity being rolled out and combined with the new consumer paradigms of engagement and viral media sharing and have come up with a five-points measurement paradigm for reach, targeting, engagement, viral effects, and transactions.

4. Introduction to Mobile Advertising

In Chapter 4, we discuss the basics of mobile advertising and dive into what is working today in the world of mobile advertising. Mobile has some unique aspects and differentiators as a media platform versus other media. Mobile phones are high volume, personal fashion statements. They are always carried and always on, unlike computers. They enable unique user input experiences of cameras and voice, and they have built-in payment mechanisms. In theory, these have powerful enabling effects for mobile media and advertising, but we are not yet fully realizing them. Throughout this chapter, we begin to lay out a fabric of underlying issues as well.

5. Challenges And Accelerators for Mobile Advertising

The major structural issues and mobile market accelerators are discussed in Chapter 5. All is not the glossy, hype-happy smiley picture painted in many analyst or industry media reports around mobile advertising. There are some major, perhaps irreversible, structural flaws in the way of campaigns getting from experimental budgets of $50,000 to over a million and running many of those in parallel. The potential is huge, and the mobile-specific accelerators are massive, but the realities are complex, confusing, and sometimes involve head-popping implementation and measurements or metrics problems. Despite these issues, mobile presents some amazing accelerators. To get to these accelerators, we need to remove major barriers and hurdles.

6. Mobile Advertising Models

In Chapter 6, we cover the various business model shifts that have to happen in mobile media to get to massive consumer usage scales. These eyeballs will then be the base for attractive advertising to major brands. When it all comes in right as a model, a consumer value proposition, and a revenue generator—it can be massive in its impact.

7. Case Studies from Around the World

Mobile advertising is geographically complex and looks very different in many regions of the world. In Chapter 7, we provide several case studies discussing facets of mobile advertising such as user experience, and off- and on-deck. The studies include companies from the United States, China, Japan, South Korea, and India,. We hope these examples give you a good sense of the potential and creative and technical elements of various campaigns.

8. Technology: The Lifeblood of Digital Advertising

Technology is the lifeblood of digital advertising. In Chapter 8, we delve deep into the technology issues that need to be resolved and the processes that will need to be put in place to kick-start the industry. We discuss the opportunities available to entrepreneurs, operators, and other players in the industry who will innovate and solve some of the thorny technical problems.

9. Mobile Advertising - What Comes Next?

In Chapter 9, we take a look at “a day in the life of” consumers—what will their advertising experience be like in the future? We also discuss the major trends that will have a significant impact on the business of mobile advertising. The convergence of “three screens” and the “always-on” era is upon us and their role in changing the user experience will be profound. A focus on youth will continue to drive advertisers to use the new mediums creatively. We also discuss the tensions in the ecosystem and how they might evolve in the next few years.

10. Perspectives

Over the course of this project, we had the good fortune to confer with the key movers and shakers in the industry. Some of the top-notch executives also contributed to the project. Chapter 10 complements our work with thirteen thought-provoking pieces from some of the most brilliant minds in this emerging industry. The reader can gain insights from executives at Ogilvy, Microsoft, Nokia, Qualcomm, Rhythm New Media, Reliance Infocomm, Yahoo!, Nielsen Mobile, Diageo, Vodafone, Mobile Marketing Association (MMA), Disney, and MTV Networks.

11. Conclusions and Recommendations

This book is about the journey of the mobile advertising industry from the phase of cautious optimism to the transcendental state of contextual nirvana. This medium provides context, immediacy, and personalization like no other. In Chapter 11, we summarize our thoughts with a review of the text as well as offer recommendations for key constituents of the value chain.

Copyright, 2008. Mobile Advertising. John Wiley & Sons

Request for Participation: 2008 Mobile Industry Predictions December 18, 2007

Posted by chetan in : Carriers, 3G, Mobile Advertising, US Wireless Market, Mergers and Acquisitions, Indian Wireless market, Japan wireless market, Mobile Applications, Worldwide Wireless Market, Mobile Ecosystem , 2 comments

2008 is upon us. We are doing a short survey (15 questions, Multiple Choice, One Answer) to gather insights from the collective brain trust - our readers, friends and colleagues. If you could please take this short survey and let us know what you think. You can answer any or all questions. If you leave your email address, we will enter you in the drawing for winning a signed copy of our upcoming book “Mobile Advertising” (John Wiley & Sons, Feb 2008).

We will share the summary of the results during the first week of 2008.

Please click here to start responding. If the link doesn’t work for you, please cut-n-paste this URL -

http://www.surveymonkey.com/s.aspx?sm=vGkMMvzoWGvFvfCC5TNDUg_3d_3d

Survey ends Dec 28th.

The questions are:

1. Will there be a Google Phone in 2008?

2. Will Google play to win in the 700MHz Spectrum Auction?

3. Will Microsoft launch its own mobile phone?

4. Will Mobile Payments get traction in North America and Western Europe?

5. Will WiMAX regroup from its setbacks?

6. Will Verizon truly open-up its garden for third-party visitations?

7. Will 2008 be the inflection year for Mobile Advertising?

8. Will Android make a dent in handset shipments in 2008?

9. Will Femto-Cells gain any significant momentum in 2008?

10. Will Nokia be able to extract iPhone-style rev-share from carriers in 2008?

11. Will Helio survive 2008?

12. Will Palm survive 2008?

13. Will iPhone truly open up?

14. Will there be more unsubsidized devices introduced in the US market in 2008?

15. Will Mobile TV move the needle in 2008?

Please feel free to pass this on to anyone who might be interested or have something to say.

Thanks and Have a safe and wonderful holiday.

Stanford University Program - Future of Indian Mobile Value Added Services (MVAS) Market December 8, 2007

Posted by chetan in : AORTA, Carriers, Speaking Engagements, 3G, Mobile Advertising, US Wireless Market, Mobile Content, Mobile Entertainment, Mergers and Acquisitions, Indian Wireless market, India, BRIC, WiMax, Mobile Gaming, ARPU, Japan wireless market, Unified Messaging, Messaging, Mobile TV, Mobile Applications, Smart Phone, Worldwide Wireless Market, Mobile Usability, Mobile Ecosystem, Speech Recognition, Mobile Search, Wi-Fi, Wireless Value Chain, 4G , 15 comments

Stanford University Program - Future of Indian Mobile Value Added Services (MVAS) Market

Stanford University hosted a program focused on the Indian Wireless Market – Why Mobile?, Why Indi