Announcing Preliminary Agenda - Mobile Future Forward Leadership Summit, Sept 10, 2012 August 21, 2012
Posted by chetan in : Mobile Future Forward, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a commentGreetings Everyone!
Hope you are having a great summer.
I am very excited to announce our preliminary agenda for our upcoming Mobile Future Forward thought-leadership summit with an incredible line-up of speakers, thinkers and doers. The meeting of the minds will hopefully inspire you, help meet the most influential decision makers in the mobile ecosystem, and learn a thing or two about the future direction of the mobile industry.
Give us your one day and we will give you the next 5 years in mobile.
Registration and other information at http://www.mobilefutureforward.com
Please note: Olympics Saver is expiring this Thursday, Aug 23, 2012. Limited Seats.
In proud partnership with: Intel, Amdocs, Compuware, Ericsson, Juniper, Synchronoss, Tekelec.
Preliminary Agenda: Mobile Future Forward – Seattle – Sept 10, 2012
8:30 am
Keynote Panel: Looking back from Mobile 2020 – the last 10 years.
Erik Ekudden, Head of Strategy, Ericsson (moderator)
Stephen David, former CIO, P&G
Jeff Bradley, SVP – Devices and Developer Services, AT&T
Jason Hoffman, CEO, Joyent
9:30 am
1-on-1 with Renee James
Renee James, SVP – Software and Services, Intel
Chetan Sharma, President, Chetan Sharma Consulting
10:30 am
Future of Mobile Devices
Kevin Packingham, Chief Product Officer, Samsung
Mike Woodward, President, HTC Americas
Nick Wingfield, Reporter, New York Times (moderator)
11:30 am
Mobile Operators: Succeeding on the 4th Wave
Steve Elfman, President, Sprint
Glenn Lurie, President, AT&T
Chetan Sharma, President, Chetan Sharma Consulting (moderator)
1:30 pm
LTE is here and now. What’s Next?
Stephen Bye, Chief Technology Officer, Sprint
Neville Ray, Chief Technology Officer, T-Mobile USA
Vince Spinelli, MD – Mobility Solutions, Juniper Networks
Soren Elsborg, Head of Mobile Broadband, Ericsson
Tyler Davidson, Vice President, Amdocs
Kevin Fitchard, Senior Writer, GigaOM (moderator)
Mobile Enterprise and the Cloud
Gus Hunt, Chief Technology Officer, CIA
Abhi Ingle, VP – Advanced Mobility Solutions, AT&T
Dave Whalen, VP/GM – Software Services, Intel
Marianne Marck, VP – Software Engineering, Starbucks
Ed Cantwell, SVP, West Wireless Health Institute
2:30 pm
When will Mobile Commerce eclipse Ecommerce? And How?
Michael Bayle, EVP, ESPN (moderator)
Jana Messerschmidt, VP, Twitter
Antonio Benjamin, Global CTO, Citi
Mark Young, VP, NBC Universal
Stefan Happ, SVP – mobile and online, American Express
nScreen Era – Engagement and Commerce
Oke Okaro, Global Head and GM – Mobile & Connected Devices, Bloomberg
Martin Fichter, VP - Products, HTC
Jorge Espinel, EVP, News Corp
Hank Skorny, VP/GM, Intel
Wilson Rothman, Deputy Editor, NBC News (moderator)
4:00 pm
Managing network growth in the Yottabyte Era
Dan Deeney, Partner, New Venture Partners (moderator)
Houck Reed, VP, Tekelec
Wim Sweldens, President, Alcatel Lucent Wireless
Erik Moreno, EVP, Fox
Biju Nair, SVP, Synchronoss
The fight for developers – Apps, OTT, APIs, and Dollars
Frank Meehan, Executive, Horizons Ventures
Todd Simpson, Chief Innovation Officer, Mozilla
Mark Hillman, SVP – Strategy and Business Development, Compuware
Carlos Domingo, CEO, Telefonica R&D
Brad Duea, SVP – Product Management, T-Mobile
John Malloy, General Partner and co-founder, Blue Run Ventures (moderator)
5:00 pm
Big Data, Big Opportunities
Anjul Bhambri, VP – Big Data, IBM
Jeff Warren, VP – Mobile, Expedia
Internet of Things – Journey to 50 Billion
Mark Anderson, CEO, SNS (moderator)
Amir Mashkoori, CEO, Kovio
Jeff Smith, CTO, Numerex
Kevin Howard, CEO, ICG
Bobby Morrison, President, Verizon
Sebastien Taveau, CTO, Validity
US Wireless Market Update – Q2 2012 August 13, 2012
Posted by chetan in : Connected Devices, Enterprise Mobility, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Cloud Computing, Mobile Future, Mobile Future Forward, Strategy, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 1 comment so farUS Wireless Market Update Q2 2012
The US mobile data market grew 5% Q/Q and 19% Y/Y to reach $19.3B in Q2 2012. Data is now almost 42% of the US mobile industry service revenues. For the year 2012, the market is on track for mobile data revenues in the US market to reach our initial estimate of $80 billion.
The US operators reversed the postpaid decline in last quarter to add almost 400K postpaid subs largely due to the strong performance of Verizon Wireless. Sprint and T-Mobile saw further postpaid declines. For T-Mobile, Q2 marked the eight straight quarters of postpaid losses.
In terms of Y/Y growth, Connected Devices segment grew 21%, Prepaid 12%, Wholesale 4%, and Postpaid was flat. AT&T, AT&T, Sprint, and Verizon are number one respectively in these categories. The connected devices segment has been an area of growth for the industry but for the second straight quarter, the Q/Q growth fell below 5%. This is largely driven by lower growth in the M2M segment.
Driven largely by the economy, the prepaid subscriptions went past 100 M for the first time in the US market. Given that the revenue from new subscribers has fallen below the 5% mark for the first time, the revenue growth will be primarily driven by services to the existing subscriber base. The new revenue will be dominated by data access revenues for the next couple of years.
As has been obvious for some time, the device ecosystem has become a two horse race – iOS and Android. Apple and Samsung. Google’s acquisition of Motorola finally closed and everyone is watching as to what comes next. Amazon showed off its ambition with Kindle Fire and is now getting ready to launch a new set of devices in time for the holiday season. Apple launches its iPhone 5 with LTE and gives some more polish to iOS next month. Microsoft will start selling its Surface tablet in a matter of weeks. The only one left out of the launching musical chairs is RIM which has pushed out its launch into 2013.
Samsung continued its march of being the undisputed unit leader in mobile device space. After displacing Nokia in Q1 2012, it continued to dominate in units shipped in Q2 2012. However, Apple dominates both the device revenues and more importantly just crushes the competition on device profits. It has only 6% of the global unit shipment share but over 70% profit share. In tablets, Apple completely dominates the landscape in both shipments and revenue. In fact, 97% of the profits in the tablet segment go to Apple with the remaining ecosystem fighting for the crumbs. Apple has the complete stronghold on the supply chain and has sucked out the oxygen from the OEM world.
Nokia’s Lumia launch in Q2 fizzled in the US and elsewhere. It will get another shot at glory and perhaps its last with the Windows 8 launch in Sept.
If we exclude the M2M subscriptions and just look at the human subscriptions, the smartphone penetration went past 50% for the first time in the US market. Smartphone sales continued at a brisk pace crossing the 70% mark (of the devices sold) in Q2 2012.
Verizon and AT&T maintained their top positions in the global rankings by mobile data revenues. A survey of the entire ecosystem shows that the US companies dominate the top 5 rankings of profit share. China Mobile leads the industry with Apple, Verizon, AT&T, and NTT DoCoMo completing the rankings.
Zuned Out
Apple launched iPod in 2001. During the early days, Microsoft ignored it until it realized it better start paying attention to the growing phenom. It asked its suppliers to build them a Microsoft iPod. One by one, they all failed. Depressed and frustrated, it took matters in its own hand and introduced Zune in 2006, full five years after the first iPod came into the market. By that time, Apple had already sold 66M units and still hadn’t hit its peak. As is customary, Microsoft took another few iterations to get it right. By the time a competitive product came out, it didn’t matter. The main reason was that the customers were Zuned Out. They had already made their choice, invested their time and money into a platform and it will take more than a crowbar to move them onto something new. Microsoft retired Zune in 2011
Fast forward to 2007. iPhone came out. Nokia, RIM, Microsoft and others dismissed it and more importantly failed to understand and acknowledge its impact. Their corporate schizophrenia is well documented. Microsoft wisely realized that it can’t just keep paring down the mothership OS for mobile and took time to rewrite it. The new OS was actually good and well designed, it was quite fresh. iOS and Android would do well to borrow some ideas from it to enhance the user experience. However, Microsoft’s partners by this time were more enamored with Android. So in Nokia, Microsoft found a partner who can help shine the light on its new shiny OS. By the time initial credible versions of the new windows OS started to ship, Apple had already shipped over 200M units of iPhone. By the time RIM ships devices with the new OS (if it gets to that point), Apple would have shipped over 300M units. Consumers have already invested their time and money into platforms and ecosystems. Will Microsoft, Nokia, and RIM get a second chance or will they be Zuned Out?
Then came the iPad that completely took Microsoft by surprise. It pioneered the concept a decade earlier but was completely outflanked by the wily Apple. Zune wasn’t significant to Microsoft’s core business. It had ignored mobile as well for the better part of the decade as it didn’t disturb the Office and Windows PC franchises. But tablets are different. Apple singlehandedly created a new category in 2010 and has dominated it ever since. It is altering the basic notion of computing. Enterprises are dumping their PCs and moving to iPad. We have seen that in our work as well. All of a sudden, there is a direct threat to Microsoft’s core business. This time the implications are very serious. It can no longer afford a misstep. So, instead of letting partners produce mediocre products that have no chance of success in the market, Microsoft is taking the matters in its own hands early on and produce something that on surface looks a pretty compelling product. If it can get the pricing right, it can make a dent and be a contender in the new computing landscape. It can use its products, distribution power, developer ecosystem, and the bank balance to alter the scales. But Apple has a big lead. By the time Surface comes out, Apple would have sold over 100M iPads. If Microsoft executes, maybe there is a chance to not get Zuned Out this time around. If it fails, the company itself might be Zuned Out in due course along with many of its longtime partners.
In the theory of market entry, fast follower is actually a smart strategy. Microsoft was a master at it. However the strategy has its limitations. Against an agile and ruthless competitor like Apple or Google, you better be a really fast follower (Samsung) else time starts to work against you. A slow follower strategy only works if you have something truly innovative (iPhone) or the incumbents are asleep at the switch (Xbox) or the business model is disruptive (Netflix). Also, the fast follower strategy is only sustainable when you are adept at anticipating competitor’s future chess plays.
Shared Data Plans
We have been advocating shared data plans to create more consumer demand for over two years. When I talked to CNBC earlier this year (Jan), I said that in all likelihood the family data plans will be introduced in the US market in 2012. I discussed this more with Bloomberg and USA Today and suggested that most likely Verizon will launch them first. Verizon and AT&T launched the shared data plans this summer with AT&T getting the benefit of launching it second. While it is a great start, to be truly effective, some of the fees need to be reduced or completely eliminated.
Operator’s Dilemma (And Opportunity): The Fourth Curve
While the European operators are feeling the heat from the OTT players (which is further compounded by an abysmal economy), the impact on the US operator revenues hasn’t been significant, yet. Last quarter we released our Mobile Future Forward Research 2012 Paper that took an in-depth look at the evolving landscape. The first of its kind study looks at the revenue curves over the course of the mobile history and discusses the need to invest in the fourth curve. The paper results were discussed in WSJ, The Economist, GigaOM, Seattle Times, and many other fine publications around the globe. The fourth curve will define the fate of many providers. Earlier this year, we discussed the topic in-depth in our Seattle and London forums and we will go even deeper into the subject at our annual brainstorm - Mobile Future Forward on Sept 10th with all major participants.
mCommerce > eCommerce: Mobile First to Mobile Only
In the last couple of years, the realization in the industry set in that mobile is going to reallydominate the world. Very quickly, we are at another pivot point wherein the mobile first doctrine is going to move to mobile only. It is not that the desktop world will disappear into oblivion. Far from it. But, the investments, strategy, and execution will be driven by mobile. As we said in our global research update earlier this year, in 3-5 years, with few exceptions, if a company is not doing majority of its digital business on mobile, it is going to be irrelevant. There are already several data points to support the theory. Leading apps and services like Facebook, Twitter, Pandora are already operating in the world where mobile is driving majority of their user engagement. Expedia, Fandango and others are seeing the early signs of migration into the mobile dominated world. Starting soon we will start to see businesses with mCommerce Revenues > eCommerce Revenues.
Postpaid Doldrums
The prepaid subscriber base exceeded 100M in the US for the first time. As postpaid growth sputters, prepaid is picking up the net-adds. So, the question emerges, where will the net-sub and net-revenue growth going to come from in the next few years. The smartphone penetration in the US is at 50% (excluding M2M), so the significant opportunities are in the upgrades and non-data to data conversion. Family data plans (see above) will help in bolstering data revenues as well. Multiple devices/consumer will increase the sub penetration which is at 110%.
Mobile Data Growth – The Gigabyte Generation
The overall data consumption in the US market in 2012 is expected to exceed 2000 Petabytes or 2 Exabytes. Since the advent of the iPhone five years ago, the US market has seen triple digit growth in mobile data consumption. In 2012, we expect the mobile data growth to be around 80%. This has largely been driven by the introduction of data tiers, the use of WiFi offload, more developer education, throttling in some instances, and some compression and offloading solutions. However, as LTE becomes more widespread in the US, we expect the traffic growth to pick up again.
Market Consolidation
Even though the regulators have indicated their distaste for big mergers, it hasn’t stopped the industry to play the M&A speculation parlor game. Except for a few impossible scenarios, all sorts of deals are being contemplated. The market economics is clearly crying out for more consolidations. The smaller M&As won’t move the needle and bigger M&A are not going to be on the table until we get into a new calendar year.
New Revenue
At the turn of the century, roughly 15% of the service provider revenue came from new subscribers. By the end of the year, we expect this will drop down to 3%. This means that the new revenue will have to come from a) converting non-data to data subs and b) launching new services in different verticals for the existing subs.
Connected Universe, Monetizing Opportunities
While 2011 was the year of figuring what the opportunities are in the new connected era, 2012 is starting to focus on how to monetize those opportunities. That will be the theme of our Mobile Future Forward Thought-leadership summit on Sept 10th. Almost all the vertical industries are benefiting from the connected devices and ubiquity of broadband networks – security, health, retail, utility, transportation, entertainment, and others. We will take a deep dive into the issues, the best case studies, the opportunities, and the players. We are assembling industries who’s who to help you figure out where the industry is headed next.
What to expect in the coming months?
All this has setup an absolutely fascinating 2012 in the communication/computing industry. Convergence is everywhere and is leading to a fundamental reset of the value chains and ecosystems.
As usual, we will be keeping a very close eye on the micro- and macro-trends and reporting on the market on a regular basis in various private and public settings.
Against this backdrop, the analysis of the Q2 2012 US wireless data market is:
Service Revenues
- The US Wireless data service revenues grew 5% Q/Q and 19% Y/Y to $19.3B in Q2 2012. For the year 2012, we are forecasting that mobile data revenues in the US market will reach $80 billion.
- Verizon and AT&T dominated the quarter accounting for 68% of the mobile data services revenue and had 66% of the subscription base.
- Verizon and AT&T maintained its #1 & #2 mobile data revenue ranking in Q2 2012. Sprint and T-Mobile maintained their #5 and #9 rank in the top 10 mobile data operators list for Q2 2012.
ARPU
- The Overall ARPU declined by $0.03. Average voice ARPU declined by $0.63 while the average data ARPU grew by $0.60 or 3% Q/Q.
- The average industry percentage contribution of data to overall ARPU is now at the 42% mark in Q2 2012 and is likely to exceed the 50% mark early next year. All the top three US operators are above the 40% mark with Verizon leading the trio. (For reference, all three major Japanese operators are now over the 60% mark).
Subscribers
- The US operators bounced back from its first ever decline and added 400K postpaid subs.
- T-Mobile’s postpaid woes continued for the eight straight quarters.
- AT&T and Verizon both added more than a 1 M subs while Sprint added 283K.
- For the eleventh straight quarter, AT&T reported more net-adds from connected devices than postpaid subs.
Applications and Services
- While many of its brethren are seeing messaging volume declines, messaging in the US market grew by 5% YOY and 1% Q/Q. US consumers are now sending messages at the rate of 696 messages/sub/mo. However, most operators are seeing decline in messaging revenue growth due to IP messaging. As expected, this transition will continue around the world at different rates. In the US, while the change is underway, we don’t expect any dramatic declines like in Philippines or the Netherlands in the near-term.
- The market is finally starting to see activity in the mobile commerce and payment services as well as in various industry verticals like healthcare, retail, and education.
- Q2 2012 again saw tremendous activity in the mobile commerce and payments space with a lot of announcements from the operators, Internet players, and startups as well as the retailers and the ecommerce players. All are vying for a piece of the mobile wallet. Much more to come in the next 12 months. On the retail side, Starbucks is a player to watch as it tries to become a more active participant in the digital ecosystem.
Handsets
- Smartphones continued to be sold at a brisk pace accounting to over 70% of the devices sold in Q2 2012 with Android dominating though iPhone leads in revenue and mindshare.
- Samsung now leads in every major unit sale category both on the world stage as well as in the US. However, profits are a different equation where Apple overshadows its rivals like Gulliver on the Lilliput land.
- While it is fairly clear that Windows will acquire the #3 spot behind iOS and Android, the journey to a substantial and competitive market share is still ways off. It renews its entry into the battlefield with Windows 8 next quarter.
- Apple’s iPhone sales declined in Q2 but with iPhone 5 round the corner, it is all set to dominate the remainder of the calendar year.
- US continues to sell over 40% of the world’s smartphone every quarter thus making it the most attractive market for OEMs.
- AT&T continues to dominate the connected devices segment with over 47% market share.
- Verizon continues to sell more LTE smartphones as it added another 3.2M subs in Q2 2012 making it the leading LTE operator in the world. AT&T’s and Sprint’s LTE rollouts are gathering steam. T-Mobile announced that it is putting the cash and spectrum it got from AT&T to good use and deploying LTE by 2013. Expect the “fastest network” marketing to continue for at least another seven quarters.
- There is always a beauty contest amongst operators as to who sold more iPhones. AT&T again bested its rivals by selling roughly 47% of the iPhones in the US. However, iPhone sales in the US declined as consumers await iPhone 5. T-Mobile’s date with Apple is starting to look like a possibility in the near future.
Mobile Data Growth
- The overall data consumption in the US market in 2012 is expected to exceed 2000 Petabytes or 2 Exabytes. The smartphone data consumption at some operators is averaging close to 850 MB/mo. As we move into 1GB range along with the family data plans kicking in, you can expect the data tiers to get bigger both in GBs and dollar amount.
- The Signaling traffic has increased 3x.
- Mobile data traffic growth is likely to slow down to roughly 80% after doubling for the last five years. Voice traffic will dip below 10% of the overall traffic in 2012.
- While the spectrum debate rages on, in addition to the network and backhaul upgrades, policy management and data offload have emerged as top two solutions that operators deploying around the world. Signaling management solutions like Diameter routing are also getting good traction. However, a long-term video solution is still elusive. As we have been saying in our Yottabyte series of research papers, a comprehensive solution strategy is needed to effectively manage margins/bit.
Global Update
- Race to a billion – China became the first nation to go past a billion subscriptions. See our detailed analysis of the Chinese and Indian mobile market.
- For more details, please see our Global Mobile Wireless Market Update released in April 2012.
Your feedback is always welcome.
Chetan Sharma
We will be discussing a number of issues raised in this report in our annual mobile executive thought-leadership summit - Mobile Future Forward on Sept 10th in Seattle. Confirmed speakers include: Abhi Ingle, VP, Advanced Solutions, AT&T; Antonio Benjamin, Global CTO, Citi; Brad Duea, SVP – Products, T-Mobile; Biju Nair, EVP and Chief Strategy Officer, Synchronoss; Bobby Morrison – President, Verizon; Carlos Domingo, President and CEO, Telefonica R&D; Dan Deeney, Partner, New Venture Partners; Dave Whalen, VP/GM, Intel; Ed Cantwell, SVP, West Wireless Health Institute; Erik Ekudden, Head of Strategy, Ericsson; Erik Moreno, EVP, Fox; Frank Meehan, Executive, Horizons Ventures; Glenn Lurie, President, AT&T Mobility; Gus Hunt, CTO, CIA; Hank Skorny, VP/GM, Intel; Houk Reed, VP, Tekelec; Jana Messerschmidt, VP, Twitter; Jeff Smith, CTO, Numerex; Kevin Fitchard, Senior Reporter, GigaOM; Kevin Packingham, SVP – Product Innovation, Samsung; Marianne Marck, VP – Engineering, Starbucks; Mark Anderson, CEO, Future in Review; Mark Young, VP – Mobile and Connected Devices, NBC Universal; Michael Bayle, SVP and GM, ESPN Mobile; Mike Woodward, President - Americas, HTC; Neville Ray, Chief Network Officer, T-Mobile; Nick Wingfield, Reporter, New York Times; Oke Okaro, Global Head of Mobile, Bloomberg; Renee James, SVP, Software and Services Group, Intel; Stephen Bye, CTO, Sprint; Stephen David, former CIO, Proctor & Gamble; Steve Elfman, President, Sprint; Todd Simpson, Chief Innovation Officer, Mozilla; Wim Sweldens, President, Alcatel-Lucent Wireless.
We will be keeping a close eye on the trends in the wireless data sector in our blog, twitter feeds, future research reports, and articles. The next US Wireless Data Market update will be released in Nov 2012. The next Global Wireless Data Market update will be issued in Oct 2012.
Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this paper are our clients.
The Economist: Joyn Them or Join Them August 12, 2012
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , 1 comment so farI talked to The Economist about the OTT landscape. Our 4th Wave paper is also referenced in this piece. On newsstands now.
Over-the-top phone services
Joyn them or join them
Mobile operators are trying both to repel and to imitate invaders
Aug 11th 2012 | LONDON AND SEOUL | from the print edition
THE rise of the smartphone has been a mixed blessing for operators of mobile networks. People have been pleasingly eager to buy smartphones and to clock up data charges by playing games, watching videos and dawdling on social networks, as well as to make calls and send text messages. Yet smartphones have also opened the door to disruptive newcomers. Suppliers of “over the top” (OTT, or “value added”) services have been pinching the network operators’ customers by offering messaging and voice-over-internet-protocol (VOIP) calls via smartphone apps.
OTT services can take many forms, but voice and message apps have been the operators’ biggest headache. Rather than pay for an SMS message or a phone call, people may use Skype (bought by Microsoft last year), WhatsApp (brainchild of two alumni of Yahoo!), Rebtel (a Swedish start-up), Viber, Voxer or some other upstart to send messages and videos or make VOIP calls for nothing. They may still incur data charges but with Wi-Fi access may avoid even those. Ovum, a consultancy, has estimated that OTT messaging cost operators $13.9 billion, or 9% of message revenue, last year.
For operators that do not react quickly, worse may follow. In a recent paper, “Operator’s Dilemma”, Chetan Sharma, a consultant, identifies four “waves” of revenue for the mobile industry. The first, voice, is declining in most rich countries; in many markets the second, messaging, is waning too; the third, access to data, may peak in three or four years.
The fourth wave comprises a huge range of OTT services. Mr Sharma points to dozens, from health-care apps to billing services. Operators, he says, will have to strive to provide these—competing not only with each other and with start-ups but also with the giants of the internet. Those that cannot will be reduced to mere utilities, with much thinner margins.
The immediate worry, though, is the erosion of revenue from voice and (especially) messaging. Although the penetration of smartphones makes operators more vulnerable, says Stephen Sale of Analysys Mason, a research firm, prices are also important: firms that rely on costly calls and texts beyond the amounts bundled into users’ contracts are more at risk.
In Europe Dutch, Spanish and Swiss operators are most vulnerable. A year ago KPN of the Netherlands was pushed into a profit warning. Operators have also been weighed down by the continent’s economic ills. In the second quarter of 2012, KPN’s revenues from Dutch consumer-mobile services were 9.4% lower than a year before. Flat revenue and falling profits in the first half of 2012 caused Spain’s Telefónica to cancel its dividend.
Operators can respond in four ways. First, they can block the interlopers, if regulators let them. Last month South Korea’s telecoms watchdog said that the country’s three network operators could restrict access to mobile VOIP. About half of South Koreans have smartphones and almost all of those use KakaoTalk, a messaging app that has wrecked the operators’ SMS businesses. When KakaoTalk introduced a voice service in June, the incumbents feared the worst. However, the regulator’s decision is unpopular and may not last long, especially in an election year.
Second, they can adjust their pricing to make OTT services less attractive, either by charging more for rival services that piggyback on their networks or by making their own cheaper. In April Yoigo, a Spanish operator controlled by Sweden’s TeliaSonera, introduced charges for mobile VOIP (although it is still free in several packages). TeliaSonera has similar plans for Sweden.
KPN has introduced unlimited texts for Hi, a brand aimed at young people, which it hopes will help to stop the rot. AT&T and Verizon Wireless, America’s two biggest operators, have lately introduced new pricing plans partly aimed at seeing off OTT voice and message raiders—though both have been less troubled by them than their European and Asian counterparts.
Third, the GSMA (the mobile operators’ industry body) is promoting a collective response, formally titled Rich Communication Suite-enhanced (RCS-e) but marketed more snappily as “joyn”. At first joyn will offer messaging, “rich” calls allowing simultaneous sending of pictures and video, and file-sharing. Eventually, hopes the GSMA, it will be a base for other services. Joyn’s selling point is that it will be built into phones and thus available automatically across networks. So there will be no need to install an app and no need to check that your friends have too. Joyn’s slogan is: “It’s just there, it just works.”
It isn’t there yet. Joyn is so far available only in Spain, although it is due to be launched in Germany in October and South Korean operators and others are expected to start RCS-e services soon. It will spread gradually, as people replace their phones with joyned-up devices, which should be on sale before long. All the leading handset-makers have agreed to embed joyn—with a big exception: Apple, which happens to be an OTT provider too.
Meanwhile, the clock is ticking. Operators’ fourth option is to provide OTT services themselves. Telefónica is the keenest—although, hedging its bets, it is also backing joyn. In May Telefónica Digital, a subsidiary, begat TU Me, a message, VOIP and photo-sharing app that has 600,000 users so far. Its biggest market is Spain, but its second and third are India and America, where Telefónica is not present. Telefónica seems wise to the operators’ dilemma. It may cannibalise its core business but at least it will keep its customers. And it may snaffle some from other operators, too.
Mobile Future Forward Update August 1, 2012
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a comment
Greetings,
Hope you have been bitten by the Olympics bug as I have. I can bet that mobile will be setting all kinds of new world records this summer.
As is the tradition, we released our annual Mobile Future Forward Research paper earlier this month – Operator’s Dilemma (And Opportunity): The Fourth Wave. The research and the paper look into the mobile industry growth and revenue curves and discuss the evolution of our industry. We have gotten tremendous response from around the globe. WSJ did a Q&A with me on how startups can benefit from the mobile fourth wave. (Seattle Times also did a piece). I have been traveling in North America and Europe talking to executives about the impact of the fourth curve on their businesses and how to best prepare for the next 10 years. Which brings us back to our upcoming summit – Mobile Future Forward on Sept 10th in Seattle at the beautiful Newcastle Golf Club.
We are delighted to be partnering with some of the leading players in the mobile ecosystem: Intel, Amdocs, Compuware, Ericsson, Juniper, Synchronoss, Tekelec.
We are announcing additional confirmed speakers since our last update and the panels are shaping up nicely. As you know, the focus is always on in-depth discussion, insights, and the future.
The Future of Mobile Devices
Mobile devices are being introduced into the marketplace at breathtaking pace. Consumers are starting to own more than one connected device with a strong desire to own more. How are consumer’s expectations evolving in the age of n-Screens? How do you go about innovating faster than ever before? In a marketplace where iOS and Android dominate, is there a room for other platforms? What will it take to build and keep the ecosystems together? Can an OEM succeed without having a services business? How would a consumer buy a device in 2020? Senior executives from two of the leading device manufacturers will explore how the device world is likely to evolve this decade.
Kevin Packingham, Chief Product Officer, Samsung
Mike Woodward, President, HTC
LTE is here and now. What’s Next?
US has regained its leadership in the mobile ecosystem with each of the top 4 mobile operators launching LTE networks. By the end of 2013, there will be sizable network deployment from all the major players. So, what comes next? How will the networks evolve beyond the current LTE deployments. We are looking at a 1000x increase in data consumption in the next 10 years. How will the network, infrastructure, and the OSS/BSS components evolve over time to meet the demand of the consumers with voracious data appetite. The panel of experts will delve into how they are thinking about the network evolution and what will keep them competitive in the market place.
Stephen Bye, Chief Technology Officer, Sprint
Neville Ray, Chief Technology Officer, T-Mobile USA
Vince Spinelli, MD – Mobility Solutions, Juniper Networks
Soren Elsborg, Head of Mobile Broadband, Ericsson
Tyler Davidson, Vice President, Amdocs
Kevin Fitchard, Senior Writer, GigaOM (moderator)
Mobile Enterprise and the Cloud
Health, Retail, Energy, Services, Government – industries are getting disrupted and changed by broadband mobility and the cloud. From SMB to large enterprises, mobile affords the opportunity to re-architect and design for a better tomorrow. Where are the opportunities? What are the key enablers? Where is the ROI? What are the challenges for the CIOs? How do we secure the enterprises in the BYOD era? The industry practitioners will expound on what works and what doesn’t. They will help us separate reality from hype and discuss the best practices across various industry verticals.
Gus Hunt, Chief Technology Officer, CIA
Abhi Ingle, VP – Advanced Enterprise Mobility Solutions, AT&T
Dave Whalen, VP/GM – Software Services, Intel
Marianne Marck, VP – Software Engineering, Starbucks
Ed Cantwell, SVP, West Wireless Health Institute
Todd Simpson, Chief Innovation Officer, Mozilla joins The Fight for developers – Apps, OTT, APIs, and Dollars panel while Jorge Espinel, SVP – Digital Strategy, News Corp joins the nScreen Era – Engagement and Commerce panel.
… and much more
We are expecting a full house so grab your seats today. SuperSaver expires Friday – Aug 3rd.
As you can see below, we have an outstanding group of executives who are responsible for changing the industry every day. Their viewpoints and commentary will be invaluable. The Mobile Future Forward team, our esteemed partners, our fantastic speakers and our engaged community are really looking forward to Sept 10th.
Confirmed Speakers
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· Steve Elfman, President, Sprint · Glenn Lurie, President, AT&T · Wim Sweldens, President, Alcatel-Lucent Wireless · Kevin Packingham, Chief Product Officer, Samsung · Mike Woodward, President - Americas, HTC · Stephen Bye, Chief Technology Officer, Sprint · Bobby Morrison, President, Verizon Wireless · Erik Moreno, EVP, Fox · Stephen David, former CIO, Procter & Gamble · Ed Cantwell, SVP, West Wireless Health Institute · Jana Messerschmidt, VP, Twitter · Dan Deeney, Partner, New Venture Partners · Houck Reed, VP – Broadband Solutions, Tekelec · Gus Hunt, Chief Technology Officer, CIA · Mark Hillman, SVP, Product Management, Compuware · Todd Simpson, Chief Innovation Officer, Mozilla · Dave Whalen, VP/GM, Intel · Abhi Ingle, VP – Advanced Mobility Solutions, AT&T .. More to come |
· Mung Ki Woo, Head of Mobile, Mastercard Worldwide · Antonio Benjamin, Global CTO, Citi · Biju Nair, EVP and Chief Strategy Officer, Synchronoss · Hank Skorny, VP/GM, Intel · Jorge Espinel, EVP – Digital Strategy, News Corp · Marianne Marck, VP – Engineering, Starbucks · Tim Chang, Partner, Mayfield · Erik Ekudden, Head of Technology Strategies, Ericsson · Carlos Domingo, President and CEO, Telefonica R&D · Frank Meehan, Executive, Horizons Ventures · Oke Okaro, Global Head of Mobile, Bloomberg · Mark Anderson, CEO, SNS · Michael Bayle, SVP and GM, ESPN Mobile · Neville Ray, Chief Technology Officer, T-Mobile USA · Vince Spinelli, MD – Mobility Solutions, Juniper Networks · Soren Elsborg, Head of Mobile Broadband, Ericsson · Tyler Davidson, Vice President, Amdocs · Kevin Fitchard, Senior Reporter, GigaOM |
Discussion Topics
· Looking back from Mobile 2020 – the last 10 years
· The fight for developers – Apps, APIs, and Dollars
· Will Privacy get in the way of mobile growth?
· PostPC era and the tablets – commerce, engagement, and consumption
· Quantified Self. Quantified Enterprise – how to benefit from big data?
· Gamification of Everything – How to reinvent business models and revenue streams
· When will Mobile Commerce eclipse Ecommerce? And How?
· Mobile Broadband – LTE is here and now. What’s Next?
· Mobile Competitive Policy – Balancing competitiveness, consumer interests, policy, and innovation
· nScreen Connected Consumer – Expectations, Solution roadmap, and Revenue flows
· Operators vs. OTT – Competition, Co-opetition, and the new landscape. Measuring the seismic shifts.
· Big (Mobile) Data – Collection, Management and Use of Data
· Mobile Cloud Computing – Innovation, Competition, and Business Models
· Mobile CIO Prism – Disruption in the enterprise. Opportunities for growth and cost reductions
· Managing networking growth in the Yottabyte Era – strategies to tame signaling and data tsunamis
· Mobile Platforms and Ecosystems – The Cycles and the Eternal Debate
· Mobile Security – BYOD, Hacking, Protecting, and Monetization
· Emerging Markets, Emerging Opportunities
· Battle for the Home – Devices, Apps, Networks
· Retail channel transformation – how are we going to shop and who makes money?
I hope you will join us in what is shaping up to be an exceptional gathering of the mobile minds. Registration. SuperSaver will expire Aug 3rd. The last two summits were sold out so be sure to grab your seat to one of the most anticipated mobile gathering of the year.
Thanks.
Kind regards,
Chetan Sharma
