2012 Mobile Industry Predictions Survey January 3, 2012Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, ARPU, Applications, BRIC, CTIA, Carnival of Mobilists, Carriers, Connected Devices, Disruption, Enterprise Mobility, European Wireless Market, IP Strategy, Indian Wireless Market, Infrastructure, Intellectual Property, Japan Wireless Market, Location Based Services, M&A, Mergers and Acquisitions, Messaging, Microsoft Mobile, Middleware, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Breakfast Series, Mobile Cloud Computing, Mobile Commerce, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Future, Mobile Future Forward, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Payments, Mobile Search, Mobile Traffic, Networks, Patent Strategies, Privacy, Smart Phones, Speaking Engagements, Speech Recognition, US Wireless Market, Wi-Fi, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , trackback
2012 Mobile Industry Predictions Survey
First things first. From all of us at Chetan Sharma Consulting, we wish you and yours a very happy, healthy, and prosperous 2012. My thanks to all who participated in our 2012 Mobile Predictions Annual Survey. It gives our community an insider’s view of trends.
2011 was a terrific year for the mobile industry. With all its ups and down, consumers embraced devices, applications, services, and technology with more gusto than ever before. In the waning hours of 2011, we crossed the 6 billion subscriptions milestone. While the first billion took 19 years, this last billion only took 15 months.
Smartphones are selling like hot cakes. We estimate that by the end of Q4 2011, over 60% of the devices sold in the US were smartphones and over 30% of the global sales were for the evolved brethren of the primordial featurephones. Sparked by insatiable consumer demand for mobile data, LTE and HSPA+ networks are sprouting all over the planet with US leading the charge for broadband deployment.
Our annual survey is a way for us to engage our community on the trends for the next year. We put some of the pressing questions to our colleagues and industry leaders. We are able to glean some valuable insights from their choices and comments, some tangible shifts, and get a sense of what’s to come. Executives, developers, and insiders (n=150) from leading mobile companies and startups from across the value chain and around the world participated to help see what 2012 might bring to keep us on our toes. What makes this survey unique is that it draws upon the collective wisdom of folks who are at the center of the mobile evolution.
Fifteen names were randomly drawn for the limited edition of the Mobile Future Forward 2011 book. The winners are:
Tor Bjorn Minde, Head of Ericsson Labs, Ericsson
Sunder Somasundaram, Industry Solutions Practice Director, AT&T
C. Enrique Ortiz, Mobile Technologist, About Mobility
Russell Buckley, CMO, Eagle Eye
Marianne Marck, VP – Engineering, Starbucks
John Foster, President, ZED USA
Angel Luis Saez, Sr. Director, Orange Spain
Dilip Mistry, Senior Director, Microsoft Asia
Phyllis Reuther, Advanced Analytics Lab, Sprint
Gene Keenan, VP of Mobile, Isobar
Elizabeth Day, Director of Finance, Trilogy International
Alan Cole, Research Staff Member, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center
X J Wang, VP – GM China, Vesta Corp
Michelle Lee, Director, SK Telecom
Hemant Chandak, Sr. Analyst, Cisco Systems
Thanks again to everyone who contributed. We will be calling on you again next year. It has been a terrific year for us at Chetan Sharma Consulting and we are looking forward to an engaging and productive 2012.
Be well, do good work, and stay in touch.
Thanks and with warm wishes,
Your feedback is always welcome.
Now onto the 2012 Mobile Industry Predictions Survey Results.
1. What was most newsworthy in Mobile 2011?
Android had a spectacular rise in 2011 around the globe. Android OEMs collectively shipped the most number of devices and while margins shrank, they were able to put a united front to iOS. 2011 will always be remembered for the passing away of the industry transformer Steve Jobs. His work directly or indirectly touched billions of souls around the planet, many times over – something rarest of human beings are able to achieve in their life time. Regulatory tussles and significant increase in IP disputes also occupied the headlines. Amazon announced its intention for the mobile space with the launch of Kindle Fire.
2. What will be the biggest mobile stories of 2012?
As we look towards 2012, our panel voted for the continued growth of mobile data as the biggest story followed by Amazon’s entry into the mobile space. Some key questions for the year are: Will Microsoft/Nokia devices will make any meaningful progress? Will RIM survive the year? How does Google manage the fragmentation, decline in margins (for the OEMs), and the IP issues? Will any high-profile security and privacy mishaps lead to more regulatory entanglements? Facebook IPO and its mobile ambitions? How do operators manage the data demand? Which M&As will capture industry’s attention? Will Apple continue to dominate on both smartphone and tablet front? What does Apple do with mobile payments? and much more. Clearly, it is going to be a terrific year.
3. Who will be the most open player in the mobile ecosystem in 2012?
File this in the “perception is reality” folder. Despite all the criticism, Google has maintained its strong position as the most open player in the mobile industry.
4. What applications will define 4G?
Still looking for a killer-4G app? Video, cloud computing, and access will continue to drive 4G demand and growth.
5. What will be the breakthrough category in mobile in 2012?
For a second year in a row, the panel voted for mobile payments and mobile commerce as the top two category that will find their voice. Mobile advertising has become mainstream so it lost its ranking in the top 3.
6. What will be the most popular consumer mobile applications in 2012?
Apps preferences vary by regions depending on a whole range of factors. Messaging and Commerce are the top two categories for the developing world while consumers in the developed nations are likely to gravitate towards commerce and location based services.
7. Which will be the most dominant (unit sales) tablet platform in 2 years?
iOS and Android will dominate the tablet landscape for the next 24 months. A late entry by Windows 8 tablets could make a dent but don’t count on it.
8. Who will make the biggest mobile acquisition in 2012?
2011 had its fair share of block-buster acquisitions, some successful while others were not. Our panel expects Microsoft and Google to continue making the biggest acquisitions.
9. How will the "Apps vs. Mobile Web" debate shape up in 2012?
It seems like the pendulum is swinging towards the mobile web though hybrid solutions are likely to stay with us for a long time.
10. Who will define the mobile payment/commerce space?
The financial companies safely locked in the mobile payments space and while the value chain is fairly complicated and definition confusion abounds, the likes of Visa, Operators and Google will continue to drive the payments/commerce space.
11. Which solutions will gain the most traction for managing mobile data broadband consumption?
Managing data growth and margins drives all strategies at mobile operators these days which in turns drives the value chain. 4G, tiered pricing, and mobile offload continue to be the top solutions if one has the spectrum that is.
12. Which category will generate the most mobile data revenue in 2012?
Messaging, access, apps, and advertising are the four broad categories that drive mobile data revenues around the world. The developing markets rely on messaging while the developed markets are increasingly looking to access as their dominant form of revenue generation.
13. What will help mobile cloud computing gain traction in 2012?
Mobile cloud computing will continue to be defined by enterprise, storage, and media needs.
14. Which enterprise segment will mobile impact the most?
Best buy is becoming the next Circuit City. Other retailers will follow unless they can successful reinvent themselves. Health is more regulatory driven so the progress will be slow though it is ripe for a complete overhaul and developing nations are moving much faster in this space.
15. What will be the dominant revenue model for apps in 2012?
In-app revenue model made good strides in 2011 but the combination of the various available revenue models will be the norm for most application developers.
16. What mode of mobile payments will get traction in North America and Western Europe in 2012?
2011 was the year to set the ground work for growth in the mobile payments space. Given the investment and focus, we are likely to see more movement and consumer involvement in 2012 with proximity based solutions and commerce of physical goods on mobile.
17. What will be the most successful non-mobile-phone category in 2012?
Tablets dominate. Period.
18. Which of the following are likely to happen in the near future?
The is a significant shift in computing taking place right in front of our eyes wherein tablets are replacing laptops and even desktops in the enterprise. European operators have been experiencing tough times while some of the Asian operators are flush with cash, they might make their move in 2012 though regulatory hurdles might prove to be an issue. 33% of the nations will have elections in 2012, maybe which will move mobile voting to the forefront in some nations. Our panel thought there is a better chance of humans discovering water on another planet than rise of another significant mobile OS.
19. Which areas will feel the most impact from Regulators in 2012?
Net-neutrality and market competitiveness will keep the regulators busy in 2012.
20. Who was the mobile person of the year?
Clearly, Steve Jobs was an easy choice but who will replace him 2012? Jeff Bezos has an early lead followed by Andy Rubin and Mark Zuckerberg. Angry Birds representing the developer community will be in for another terrific year. Other honorable mentions were Tim Cook, Paul Jacobs, Sanjiv Ahuja, Dan Hesse, and Glenn Lurie.
A lot to look forward to in the New Year. My thanks to all who participated and we hope you found it useful as you embark on your journey for a successful 2012.
We will be keeping a close eye on the trends in the wireless data sector in our blog, twitter feeds, future research reports, and articles. The next US Wireless Data Market update will be released in Feb 2012. The next Global Wireless Data Market update will be issued in Apr 2012.
Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this survey are our clients.