VZ iPhone: What does it mean? January 11, 2011Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , 4 comments
VZ iPhone has kept the media busy for the last 3.5 years. It was quite an anticlimactic moment when the device finally came to the 2nd operator in the US. It was inevitable that one of the longest exclusive relationship in the wireless world will come to an end. For me as a strategist, it was fascinating to watch. iPhone singlehandedly turned around AT&T relative to Verizon in the net-adds race. If you study the chart below, for 10 quarters leading up to Q2 2007, AT&T was adding less net-adds compared to Verizon, in fact the cumulative net-add loss was 3.7 million subs on an average of 374,000 subs per quarter.
As soon as the iPhone was launched in Q2 2007, AT&T started adding more net-adds compared to Verizon with the 13 quarter cumulative net-add difference close to 5 million subs on an average of 378,000 subs per quarter.
So, it was one of the most brilliantly executed exclusive agreements in the history of the industry. Yes, the growth in network gave AT&T all sorts of problems and they had to accelerate the plans to upgrade the network but it also helped the industry to understand and learn which led to better technology and appreciation for consumer demand and network planning.
AT&T carries the most iPhones (and smartphones) on their network not only in the US but across the planet and the network data showed as it was stressed with the hockey stick growth over the last three years.
As other OEMs rushed to emulate Appleâ€™s success, the playing field had completely changed with the advent of superphones led by Apple. AT&Tâ€™s network traffic growth gave tremendous insights to Ericsson and Alcatel-Lucent from with other operators also benefitted.
The AT&T-Apple relationship impacted the industry in multiple dimensions. Strategists in the industry would do well to study it and draw lessons for future.
By 2010, many of us knew, VZ iPhone is in the works and will be launched in Q1 2011. In fact, 53% in our survey predicted a Q1 launch though they got the month slight wrong â€“ Jan instead of March.
How does this shake up the rest of the year? There are enough differences between the two offerings that there isnâ€™t going to be any short-term impact on AT&T. Speed, Intl roaming, simultaneous voice/data are differentiators enough to keep folks in the AT&T camp happy. Verizon will try to lure with better pricing (unlimited data) but AT&T will match and keep the damage to the minimum.
VZâ€™s iPhone also means that Android is going to get its first real standoff with iPhone and the Q1-Q2 numbers will tell if Android can stand on its own in a direct face-off. Of course, overall Android will continue to do very well due to dozens of OEM partners.
The next defining moment (and fodder to the rumor mill) will be the LTE iPhone. Until then, keep speculating ..
New Book: Technology at the Margins January 10, 2011Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a comment
A good friend of mine Sailesh Chutani (he also prepared and moderated the mHeath panel at Mobile Future Forward) has coauthored a book â€œTechnology at the Marginsâ€ which is an insightful book for anyone looking at the emerging markets. Sailesh and his coauthors are well respected in the space having worked on and funded several key projects that are now serving as the guideposts for the new generation of projects in these regions.
Technology at the Margins demonstrates that by making
IT more accessible, affordable, and relevant, new mass markets
can be opened. Based on solid insights generated in key areas of
health, education, finance and the environment, the book offers
practical recommendations and insights from world leaders,
innovators, practitioners and new users of emergent technologies.
â€¢ Offers recommendations on how companies can ensure
their own competitiveness by offering more accessible,
affordable, and relevant information technologies to support
mass market needs
â€¢ Suggests practical recommendations and insights from world
leaders, innovators, practitioners and new users of emergent
â€¢ Challenges businesses to rethink their uses of existing
Technology at the Margins will be of interest to decision makers
in the private, public and nonprofit sectors who are interested in
opportunities offered by IT in meeting the needs of those at the
base of the worldâ€™s economic pyramid.
About the Authors
SAILESH CHUTANI is the Co-Founder and CEO of Mobisante, Inc. where his goal is to democratize access to health care by making diagnostics affordable and accessible. He was formerly a Senior Director for External Research at Microsoft where he pioneered open innovation and funded seminal work in mHealth and technology for the emerging markets. Chutani has also held leadership roles in growing new businesses and products within companies such as Hewlett-Packard, Oracle, Microsoft, and Transarc Corporation.
JESSICA ROTHENBERG AALAMI is the Managing Director of the Gobee Group. Her teams provide research insights and field expertise to global businesses, governments, practitioners and their partners. As a research scholar affiliated with the University of California, Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy (BRIE), she works extensively in social and economic development and global corporate social responsibility (GlobalCSR). She holds degrees in Economic Geography and International Political Economy.
AKHTAR BADSHAH is a Senior Director of Global Community Affairs at Microsoft, where he administers the companyâ€™s global community investment and employee programs. He also manages the Microsoft Unlimited Potential Community Technology Skills Program, a global initiative designed to help narrow the technology skills gap; and Technology for Social Good that supports
nonprofits with their technology needs. Badshah has been in the field of community development for over 25 years in various capacities in academia, nonprofits, and business.
Mobile Local Advertising – Free Webinar w/ AT&Ti on Jan 18th January 7, 2011Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a comment
This is second and last in the series of webinars i am doing with AT&T Interactive. The first one was very well recieved last quarter so we are doing it again, this time focused on Mobile Local Advertising and the role Local plays in mobile advertising.
You can register at http://www.brighttalk.com/webcast/24638
I am delighted to be joined by Will Hsu, Chief Product Officer at AT&T Interactive.
Date â€“ 18th Jan at 10am PT. Duration: 1 hr
Should be a good discussion esp. for mobile publishers
Hope you can join us.US Wireless Market , add a comment
Here are the stories from 2010 that we contributed to ..
Bloomberg BW – Skype Video on Apple Devices
IT Business Edge – Mobile Developers in the Driver’s Seat
Globe and Mail – App hype still way ahead of user adoption
FierceMobileContent – Study: Android users consume more data than iPhone counterparts
Telecompaper – Mobile app downloads to hit 50 bln by 2012
Telecoms Insight – Western European Markets Lead On Mobile Content
IT Business Edge – Mobile Developers, the World is Your Oyster
Wilkes Barre Times Leader – A fight for mobile space | The Times Leader, Wilkes-Barre
Marketplace – Carriers fight to meet bandwidth demands
Wireless Week – Tiered Pricing Just the Beginning of Making Data Profitable
Practical Ecommerce – Are Consumers Really Buying Products on Mobile Devices?
BusinessNewsDaily – The App and You: Small Businesses Are Learning to Go Mobile
Independent – New devices helping consumers jump onto the smartphone
Information Week – Mobile Developers Embrace Android, iPad — InformationWeek
GigaOM â€“ With Wireless Data, Smaller Carriers Must mind the gap
SiliconIndia – Tech firms face scarcity of mobile software devs – Career
BusinessWeek – Tech Companies See Dearth of Mobile-Software Developers
Global Telecoms Business – MIMOs and smart antennas
Wireless Week – The Mobile Web Future: It’s Complicated
RWW – The Age of Exabytes
Embedded Internet – Mobile Internet apps moving e-commerce off the web
3G Americas – Transition to 4G
Connected Planet – Mobile data at a discount: Walmart’s MVNO
BusinessWeek – Falcone’s LightSquared to Take on Clearwire
San Francisco Chronicle – 30% of Google TV advertisers new to the medium
RCR Wireless – Worst of the Week: Time to take a breath
Connected Planet – Frank discussion with telecom’s most experienced editors
Kiplinger – Verizon and Google Defend Net Neutrality Moves
Wireless Week – FirstNews Briefs
Bloomberg – RIM Agrees to Buy Back Shares for About $79.8M
Electronista – Smartphone data use up 50% in just six months
MediaPost – Mobile Data Revenues Up 22% in Second Quarter
Broadband Reports – Average Wireless User Eats 230MB Per Month
PC World – AT&T, Verizon Cashing in Outside of Phones
RCR Wireless – US consumers double their mobile data traffic consumption
Mobile Marketing Watch – US Carrier Keeps Beating Japanese Counterpart in Mobile Data
FierceMobileContent – US Mobile Data Service Revenues top $13.2B in Q2
American Public Media: The Coming Data Traffic Jam (audio)
Ecommerce Journal – End of Apple App Store reign: WAC merges JIL
RCR Unplugged – Mobile apps revenues to reach $25B by 2014
MobileGetsPersonal – Sharma Outlines Industry Move to Tiered Pricing
ReadWriteWeb – 25 Billion Mobile App Downloads by 2015
American Medical News – Who made the app for that? Tale of 3 app developers
Nokia Conversations – Friday’s Pick
St. Petersburg Times – Mixed signals surround Apple over iPhone Antenna
Boston Herald – Antenna kerfuffle overshadows iPhone 4’s other successes
Businessweek – Smartphone Apps for College
Mobile Marketing – The Mobile World According to Chetan Sharma
Business Week – Wireless Data: The End of All-You-Can-Eat?
Cellular News – Gaming to the future driver of mobile Internet
CNBC – Mobile Apps
San Diego Union Tribune – Low end of smartphones gets lift
Techflash – Morning Browse
Businessweek – AT&T’s money-saving plans will cost users more
Mercury News – Apple apologizes for iPhone 4 glitches
Wireless Week – T-Mobile Expands HSPA+ Coverage
PC Magazine – The Fastest Mobile Networks 2010
TelecomTV – AT&T brings tiered mobile data pricing to the US
San Jose Mercury News – AT&T to stop offering "all you can eat" data plans
Mobile Entertainment – Nokia: We aspire to Apple’s user experience
Telecompaper – 3GPP mobile technology sees 81% growth in Americas
Thailand Business News – Thailand’s smartphone market skyrockets with Blackberry sales
IT Business Edge – Verizon shifting to tiered pricing for LTE network
BusinessWeek – Verizon’s 4G Plan Will Try Tiered Pricing
SeattleTimes – Game-changer at Microsoft
BusinessWeek – New Web Services Put Music in the Cloud
Infoworld – Google and Facebook are violating your privacy
GigaOM – A Modest Proposal on Privacy
Mediapost – Verizon leads in Data Revenues
WirelessWeek – VZW Data Revenues Surpass DoCoMo
Fiercemobilecontent – US mobile data revenues exceed $12.5B in Q1
Telecompaper – US mobile data market up 22% in US
MobileMarketingWatch – US Mobile Data Exploding
MobileMarketing – iPad a Winner says Chetan Sharma
FierceMobileContent – Portals, Entertainment, Travel lead Mobile Advertising Spend
BusinessWeek – Social Phones Offer Shortcuts to the Web
Mediapost – Vanity vs. Sanity: Putting Apps in Context
Bloomberg Law Reports – Why Continue to Invest in Patents?
Moconews – Microsoft’s Kin: Too Little, Too Late
Mobile Entertainment – Android rising in Japan
The Globe and Mail – Talk isn’t cheap in world’s biggest cellphone market
Econsultancy – Mobile: Less phone, more data
Telemanagement – Mobile data is king: surpasses voice
Nasdaq – Seismic shift in mobile use
Jerusalem Post – Android in Japan
Hot Hardware – Mobile Data Surpasses Voice Traffic for First Time
AllThingsDigital – A New First in Mobile: Data traffic Outstripped Voice Traffic Last Year
Business News Network – iPad and Mobile Networks (video)
Mediapost – US Led in Mobile Data Growth in 2009
Pluggd.in – Mobile App Stores – Asia leads the download race
BusinessWeek – AT&T may find Apple iPad Strains Network more than expected
BusinessWeek – Freeing the iPad from AT&T
WirelessWeek – VCast App Store Opens
WirelessWeek – National Broadband Plan – A Work in Progress
RCR Wireless – America pushes the boundaries of broadband
FierceWireless – Breaking down usage-based data pricing
FierceWireless – User appetite for apps continues to surge
NY Times – LTE may heat up mobile net neutrality debate
PC World – LTE may heat up mobile net neutrality debate
Our Mobile Apps Research received unprecedented global coverage with hundreds of stories, here is a sampling ..
Business Insider – Number of Apps Stores Grew from 9 to 38 in 2009
BusinessWeek – Americans Pay More for Mobile Apps
Cellular News – Mobile apps to be worth $17.5B by 2012
Connected Planet – Apps trump CDs – but do we really need 38 app stores
Connected Planet – Mobile apps explode, but what about the little guys
Communities Dominate Brands – So what do we learn from Chetan Sharmaâ€™s Report on Mobile Apps
Datamation – Mobile Application Sales to reach $17.5B by 2012
Ecommerce Times – Consumers go gaga over apps
Fast Company – Mobile Apps Sales to Hit $17.5B by 2012
FierceMobile – 50B mobile app downloads in 2012
GoMo News – Growth in mobile apps may have hidden dangers
Guardian – Mobile Apps will outsell CDs by 2012
Information Week – Mobile Apps get top dollar in US
Mashable – Mobile App Market to Surge to $17.5B by 2012
Mobile Marketing Watch – Mobile Apps to Soar to $50B downloads by 2012
Mobile Entertainment – Mobile apps to outsell CDs by 2012
Moconews – Evidence that Apple is Onto Something
Msearchgroove – Chetan Sharma first to map app economy and landscape
NPR – App Store Study
PC World – Apps are a goldmine for developers
ReadWriteWeb – Mobile App Marketplace: $17.5B by 2012
Seattle Times – Mobile apps $17B market soon, app seller claims
Techcrunch – Mobile app sales will overtake CD Sales by 2012
TelecomTV – Study forecasts $17.5B apps store revenues
FCC – National Broadband Plan
BusinessWeek – Clear’s Mobile Users Really Use the Service
US Today – Media Morning (MBS)
Seattle Times – Glaser on mobile biz, Apple and the Sesame Street problem (MBS)
Seattle Times – Former FCC boss on fed’s free wireless proposal (MBS)
Techflash – RealNetworks’ Rob Glaser on why Apple’s model must be stopped (MBS)
Techflash – RealNetworks advice to startups: It’s better to be lucky, than good (MBS)
Moconews – Former RealNetwork’s CEO Rob Glaser Says For Now Apple Has Won(MBS)
PC World – Former FCC Chair Says More Fiber Will Help Wireless Crunch (MBS)
PC World – Rob Glaser Thinks Mobile Is the Next Big Thing (MBS)
NPR – SXSW and Mobile Data Network Traffic
FierceBroadbandWireless – New report enforces why operators are talking usage-based data pricing
Techcrunch – In Mobile, Fragmentation is Forever, Deal With It
Mediapost – Coming Soon To A Wireless Store Near You
Billing & OSS World – Mobile Data Doesn’t Have to be Expensive
Businessweek – The Truth about Bandwidth
TelecomAsia – Mobile Broadband: Still growing but realism sinks in
Connected Planet – Youtube dominates mobile Internet traffic; mobile VoIP on the rise
Business Journal – The Apple effect on AT&T brings good times and bad
Telemanagement – Cutting an operator’s mobile data costs by 60% a year
Mobile Marketing Magazine – Report explains how operators can slash data costs
NYTimes – The iPad – To 3G or Not to 3G?
Businessweek – Apple iPad Adds to Pressure on AT&T
Businessweek – Mobile-Ad M&A Frenzy May Continue
Businessweek – Verizon Wireless-AT&T ‘Price War’ May Boost Revenues
GigaOM – In Q4, Data Was Mobile’s Hot Spot
RCR Wireless – RCR WIreless Digital Edition Jan 2010
MobileFuture – Net Neutrality Regulatory Proposals
Mercury News – Apple and Google: It’s a mobile turf war
Mediapost – Survey: Mobile Execs See Big Ad Gains in 2010
GigaOM – China Mobile Data Gold Rush Begins
Plastics News – Consumers like their phones mobile, smartUS Wireless Market , add a comment
US Mobile Messaging Market – Growth and Opportunities
Industry Study Sponsored by Sprint Nextel
The US mobile data market has seen significant growth in terms of revenue growth and consumer adoption. In fact, the impressive data growth rate has made US the most valuable mobile data market in the world with almost $55 billion in data revenues in 2010 accounting for over 36% of the overall service revenues for the year.
A significant portion of the mobile data revenues comes from the most basic service of all â€“ SMS (or TXT) Messaging. While the US was late in getting hooked on the texting craze that enamored most of the rest of the world, during the last few years, the consumers in the US have more than made up for the initial lag. The US is now the top texting nation in the world in terms of total volume as well in terms of per subscriber messages/day. This trend is much more pronounced in the younger demographics.
However, for the most part, texting has been a person-to-person (P2P) phenomenon with a smaller portion of the traffic being attributed to premium and business-to-consumer (B2C) SMS. With the decline of the ringtones and images business, the premium messaging growth has slowed down and migrated towards the standard B2C messaging which has grown over 50% in the last two years.
The business-to-consumer SMS has been taking off significantly as businesses find the SMS channel to be quite effective for communicating and engaging their customers and employees. There is significant pent-up demand for taking business-to-consumer SMS messaging to the next level by streamlining ecosystem pricing as well as access to the SMS infrastructure in a more user-friendly way.
This paper discusses the overall SMS ecosystem in the US market, the market size and the industry value chain. Further, it takes a look at the next phase of the ecosystem evolution with open APIs and flexible pricing models that will bring more businesses into the ecosystem and lead to higher revenue growth in the coming years.
Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this paper are our clients.
2011 Mobile Predictions Survey Results January 3, 2011Posted by chetan in : 3G,4G,AORTA,ARPU,BRIC,Carriers,CTIA,Enterprise Mobility,European Wireless Market,Indian Wireless Market,Infrastructure,Intellectual Property,International Trade,IP,IP Strategy,Japan Wireless Market,Location Based Services,M&A,Mergers and Acquisitions,Microsoft Mobile,Middleware,Mobile Advertising,Mobile Applications,Mobile Content,Mobile Ecosystem,Mobile Entertainment,Mobile Event,Mobile Future,Mobile Future Forward,Mobile Gaming,Mobile Traffic,Networks,Patent Strategy,Patents,Privacy,US Wireless Market,WiMax,Wireless Value Chain,Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment
2011 Mobile Predictions Survey
First things first. From all of us at Chetan Sharma Consulting, we wish you and yours a very happy,
healthy, and prosperous 2011. Thanks to all who participated in our 2011 Mobile Predictions Annual Survey. We have found it is the best way to think about the trends coming our way.
We put some of the questions to our colleagues and industry leaders in the industry. We were able to glean some valuable insights from their choices and comments. This survey is different from some of the others in the sense that it includes industry movers and shakers participation. Executives and insiders (n=225) from leading mobile companies across the value chain and around the world opined to help us see what 2011 might bring.
Ten names were randomly drawn the limited edition Mobile Future Forward book. The winners are:
1. Jared Cornfeld, Industry analyst, FCC
2. Abhi Rele, Marketing, Microsoft
3. Christopher Billich ,Head of Mobile Advertising, Deutsche Telekom AG
4. Gary Cohen, VP/GM North America, Flirtomatic
5. Peter Jarich, Service Director, Current Analysis
6. Darren Austin, Director of Mobile, Expedia
7. Craig Fisher, Software Client Leader, IBM
8. Steve Wood, CEO, Perlego Systems, Inc.
9. Elliott Hamilton, Sr. Director of Strategic Planning, TeleCommunication Systems
10. Vishal Gupta, Vice President North America, Qualcomm Inc
Thanks again to everyone who contributed. We will be calling on you again next year. We are clearly
living in "interesting times" with never a dull moment in our dynamic industry. It has been a terrific
year for us here at Chetan Sharma Consulting and we are looking forward to 2011 and seeing many of
you along the way. We hope you enjoyed gaining from the collective wisdom.
Be well, Do Cool Work, Stay in touch.
Thanks. With warm wishes,
Your feedback is always welcome.
Now onto the 2011 Mobile Industry Predictions Survey Results
The panel comprised of movers and shakers of the mobile industry from around the world.
What will be the biggest stories of 2011?
In last year’s survey, Google/Android narrowly missed out to be the biggest story of the year but this year, the verdict was clear that Google will continue to dominate the headlines with Android devices and new updates and apps. Given that we are in the midst of 4G deployments and ITU’s flipflop on the definition, we could be in for an interesting year.
When will Verizon iPhone launch?
Inordinate amount of ink has been spilt over Verizon’s iPhone speculation. However, given the chatter, our panel voted for a Q1 launch.
Who will be the most open player in the mobile ecosystem in 2011?
In all our surveys Google has consistently cemented its perception of being the most open in the ecosystem.
Will Android tablet sales exceed iOS tablet sales in 2011?
Last year, Android OS edged past iOS, however, given the lead iOS has had in tablets, it might be hard to overcome the number of shipments in 2011.
Who will make the biggest mobile acquisition in 2011?
Got Cash? Big players are likely to go shopping but who will score the blockbuster deal of the year. Google and Microsoft will duke it out with Google taking the spoils.
How will the "Apps vs. Mobile Web" debate shape up in 2011?
Apps vs Mobile Web has been as hotly debated in the industry as the CDMA vs. GSM battles of the past. Our panel thought Apps will continue to grow though mobile web starts to show its muscle.
By how much will the mobile advertising ad-spend increase in 2011?
Our panel was more bullish on mobile advertising than last year with a good 50% of respondents aiming for 200% growth and higher.
Which market will be the biggest infrastructure in 2011 for sales opportunities?
India and China are laying out 3G and North America is expanding on 4G. Infrastructure contracts abound.
Who will be the mobile come back story of 2011?
Many long-time players are under the gun this year. Will Windows 7 help Microsoft or will Meego make Nokia competitive. Story will unfold this year.
Who will end up having the strongest position in the mobile payment/commerce space?
While Japan/Korea markets have developed mature mobile payments solutions, the battle royale of mobile payments in North America will play out between the financial guys and Operators with Internet players making a strong run at it as well. 2011 might help decide the long-term winners in the space. Our panel thinks, the likes of Mastercard and Visa will edge out others in the tussle.
Which areas will feel the most impact from Regulators in 2011?
Regulators can have a huge impact on the course of the industry and nation’s competitiveness. With the laws all but laid out, the real rulings might come from the courts.
Which solutions will gain the most traction for managing mobile data broadband consumption?
2010 saw the emergence of tiered data pricing in North America and operators all over the world are bracing for a long-term challenge of managing mobile data growth. We have written extensively on this subject in our Yottabyte series. Our panel voted for Tiered pricing and 4G as the top two solutions.
Which category will generate the most data revenues in 2011?
Global markets are quite different and while data service revenues have been growing in all regions, our panel breaks down by categories in terms of expected contribution from various segments.
What will help mobile cloud computing gain traction in 2011?
Mobile Cloud Computing is expected to take several strides in 2011 with Media and Enterprise demand at the forefront.
What will be the most successful non-mobile phone category in 2011?
As we have highlighted in our previous research, Connected devices have shown tremendous growth in 2010. Tablet seems to be clear category winner.
What will be the breakthrough category in mobile in 2011?
Mobile payments and commerce are starting to take off and are expected to show the most growth in 2011.
By the end of 2011, how will we end up defining 4G?
ITU’s flipflop means, anything above HSPA+ will be deemed a 4G technology.
Which enterprise segment will mobile impact the most?
Mobile as a platform is booming with Retail finally getting into the swing of things and will show the most activity in 2011.
What will be the dominant revenue model for apps in 2011?
While paid apps dominated the revenue stream in the early days, advertising and in-app payments are taking off on iOS and Android. Developers will play with a combination of models depending on what works on a given platform.
What mode of mobile payments will get traction in NA and WE in 2011?
Operators experimented with mobile payments over the last few years, now is the time to put the solutions to the test.
Who was the mobile person of the year?
Who can compete with King Jobs. Launching iconic devices year after another, Steve Jobs has set the direction of the industry since 2007 and was a clear favorite for the mobile person of the year. The tremendous success of the apps personified by blockbuster hit of "Angry Birds" took away the second spot with Andy Rubin’s Android effort won him the third spot.
Well, there you have it. The top trends and stories we will be talking about in 2011. Thanks again for all who participated and we hope that you found this useful as you embark on your journey for the year.
We will be keeping a close eye on the trends in the wireless data sector in our blog, twitter feeds, future research reports, and articles. The next US Wireless Data Market update will be released in Mar 2011. The next Global Wireless Data Market update will be issued in Mar 2011.
Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this paper are our clients.