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Always On Real-Time Access » 2011 » January
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VZ iPhone: What does it mean? January 11, 2011

Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , 4 comments

VZ iPhone has kept the media busy for the last 3.5 years. It was quite an anticlimactic moment when the device finally came to the 2nd operator in the US. It was inevitable that one of the longest exclusive relationship in the wireless world will come to an end. For me as a strategist, it was fascinating to watch. iPhone singlehandedly turned around AT&T relative to Verizon in the net-adds race. If you study the chart below, for 10 quarters leading up to Q2 2007, AT&T was adding less net-adds compared to Verizon, in fact the cumulative net-add loss was 3.7 million subs on an average of 374,000 subs per quarter.

image

As soon as the iPhone was launched in Q2 2007, AT&T started adding more net-adds compared to Verizon with the 13 quarter cumulative net-add difference close to 5 million subs on an average of 378,000 subs per quarter.

So, it was one of the most brilliantly executed exclusive agreements in the history of the industry. Yes, the growth in network gave AT&T all sorts of problems and they had to accelerate the plans to upgrade the network but it also helped the industry to understand and learn which led to better technology and appreciation for consumer demand and network planning.

AT&T carries the most iPhones (and smartphones) on their network not only in the US but across the planet and the network data showed as it was stressed with the hockey stick growth over the last three years.

As other OEMs rushed to emulate Apple’s success, the playing field had completely changed with the advent of superphones led by Apple. AT&T’s network traffic growth gave tremendous insights to Ericsson and Alcatel-Lucent from with other operators also benefitted.

The AT&T-Apple relationship impacted the industry in multiple dimensions. Strategists in the industry would do well to study it and draw lessons for future.

By 2010, many of us knew, VZ iPhone is in the works and will be launched in Q1 2011. In fact, 53% in our survey predicted a Q1 launch though they got the month slight wrong – Jan instead of March.

ps2011_4

How does this shake up the rest of the year? There are enough differences between the two offerings that there isn’t going to be any short-term impact on AT&T. Speed, Intl roaming, simultaneous voice/data are differentiators enough to keep folks in the AT&T camp happy. Verizon will try to lure with better pricing (unlimited data) but AT&T will match and keep the damage to the minimum.

VZ’s iPhone also means that Android is going to get its first real standoff with iPhone and the Q1-Q2 numbers will tell if Android can stand on its own in a direct face-off. Of course, overall Android will continue to do very well due to dozens of OEM partners.

The next defining moment (and fodder to the rumor mill) will be the LTE iPhone. Until then, keep speculating ..

New Book: Technology at the Margins January 10, 2011

Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a comment

A good friend of mine Sailesh Chutani (he also prepared and moderated the mHeath panel at Mobile Future Forward) has coauthored a book “Technology at the Margins” which is an insightful book for anyone looking at the emerging markets. Sailesh and his coauthors are well respected in the space having worked on and funded several key projects that are now serving as the guideposts for the new generation of projects in these regions.

Technology at the Margins: How IT Meets the Needs of Emerging Markets (Microsoft Executive Leadership Series)

Technology at the Margins demonstrates that by making
IT more accessible, affordable, and relevant, new mass markets
can be opened. Based on solid insights generated in key areas of
health, education, finance and the environment, the book offers
practical recommendations and insights from world leaders,
innovators, practitioners and new users of emergent technologies.

• Offers recommendations on how companies can ensure
their own competitiveness by offering more accessible,
affordable, and relevant information technologies to support
mass market needs
• Suggests practical recommendations and insights from world
leaders, innovators, practitioners and new users of emergent
technologies
• Challenges businesses to rethink their uses of existing
technologies

Technology at the Margins will be of interest to decision makers
in the private, public and nonprofit sectors who are interested in
opportunities offered by IT in meeting the needs of those at the
base of the world’s economic pyramid.

About the Authors

SAILESH CHUTANI is the Co-Founder and CEO of Mobisante, Inc. where his goal is to democratize access to health care by making diagnostics affordable and accessible. He was formerly a Senior Director for External Research at Microsoft where he pioneered open innovation and funded seminal work in mHealth and technology for the emerging markets. Chutani has also held leadership roles in growing new businesses and products within companies such as Hewlett-Packard, Oracle, Microsoft, and Transarc Corporation.

JESSICA ROTHENBERG AALAMI is the Managing Director of the Gobee Group. Her teams provide research insights and field expertise to global businesses, governments, practitioners and their partners. As a research scholar affiliated with the University of California, Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy (BRIE), she works extensively in social and economic development and global corporate social responsibility (GlobalCSR). She holds degrees in Economic Geography and International Political Economy.

AKHTAR BADSHAH is a Senior Director of Global Community Affairs at Microsoft, where he administers the company’s global community investment and employee programs. He also manages the Microsoft Unlimited Potential Community Technology Skills Program, a global initiative designed to help narrow the technology skills gap; and Technology for Social Good that supports
nonprofits with their technology needs. Badshah has been in the field of community development for over 25 years in various capacities in academia, nonprofits, and business.

Mobile Local Advertising – Free Webinar w/ AT&Ti on Jan 18th January 7, 2011

Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a comment

This is second and last in the series of webinars i am doing with AT&T Interactive. The first one was very well recieved last quarter so we are doing it again, this time focused on Mobile Local Advertising and the role Local plays in mobile advertising.

You can register at http://www.brighttalk.com/webcast/24638

I am delighted to be joined by Will Hsu, Chief Product Officer at AT&T Interactive.

Date – 18th Jan at 10am PT. Duration: 1 hr

Should be a good discussion esp. for mobile publishers

Hope you can join us.

In case you missed ….

Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a comment

Here are the stories from 2010 that we contributed to ..

2010

December

FCC - Federal Communications Commission FCC 10-201

Bloomberg BW - Skype Video on Apple Devices

GigaOM - Carriers and Mobile Expense Woes! Not!

IT Business Edge - Mobile Developers in the Driver’s Seat

Bernama - China Likely To Start 4G Mobile Service In 2012

Globe and Mail - App hype still way ahead of user adoption

Forbes - Verizon Looks Like iPhone Already Baked Into Stock Price But Could …

Reuters - Rovio turns to apps billing after Angry Birds hit

FierceMobileContent - Study: Android users consume more data than iPhone counterparts

Telecompaper - Mobile app downloads to hit 50 bln by 2012

Telecoms Insight - Western European Markets Lead On Mobile Content

IT Business Edge - Mobile Developers, the World is Your Oyster

November

Wilkes Barre Times Leader - A fight for mobile space | The Times Leader, Wilkes-Barre

Marketplace - Carriers fight to meet bandwidth demands

Salon - Tech Insider - GigaOM - Salon.com

Wireless Week - Tiered Pricing Just the Beginning of Making Data Profitable

Practical Ecommerce - Are Consumers Really Buying Products on Mobile Devices?

BusinessNewsDaily - The App and You: Small Businesses Are Learning to Go Mobile

Independent - New devices helping consumers jump onto the smartphone

Mediapost - MediaPost Publications Report: Connected Devices Gathering

Zdnet.nl - Mobiel dataverkeer blijft toenemen - nieuws - ITProfessional

Quomedia - Quo Media - Usa, traffico dati mobile a quota 1 Exabyte

Information Week - Mobile Developers Embrace Android, iPad — InformationWeek

GigaOM – With Wireless Data, Smaller Carriers Must mind the gap

GigaOM - U.S. Mobile Data Traffic to Top 1 Exabyte

GigaOM - Flat-Rate Data Plans Are Dead. Is That a Good Thing?

October

SiliconIndia - Tech firms face scarcity of mobile software devs - Career

BusinessWeek - Tech Companies See Dearth of Mobile-Software Developers

GigaOM - 4 Ways Carriers Are Fighting Wireless Data Demand

Global Telecoms Business - MIMOs and smart antennas

Wireless Week - The Mobile Web Future: It’s Complicated

RWW - Why Twitter’s New CEO Will be Good for Everyone

RWW - The Age of Exabytes

September

GigaOM - The Age of the Internet of Things Has Dawned

GigaOM - LTE to boost Demand for Mobile Bandwidth, Network Gear

UPI - Apps, a technology sideline, grows up

GigaOM - Femtocells Get Out of Our Homes and Into Our Cities

Embedded Internet - Mobile Internet apps moving e-commerce off the web

EE Times - Mobile Internet apps moving e-commerce off the web

3G Americas - Transition to 4G

Techflash - Android or iPhone? Mobile pundits give edge to Google

Connected Planet - Mobile data at a discount: Walmart’s MVNO

RWW - Big New Spectrum Expected to Open for Internet of Things This Week

August

BusinessWeek - Falcone’s LightSquared to Take on Clearwire

CIOL US Smartphone subs hog 230MB data on average

San Francisco Chronicle - 30% of Google TV advertisers new to the medium

RCR Wireless - Worst of the Week: Time to take a breath

Connected Planet - Frank discussion with telecom’s most experienced editors

Kiplinger - Verizon and Google Defend Net Neutrality Moves

Wireless Week - FirstNews Briefs

PSFK - More Web-Enabled Objects Than Human Came Online Last Quarter

Bloomberg - RIM Agrees to Buy Back Shares for About $79.8M

Electronista - Smartphone data use up 50% in just six months

Moconews - A Look at How Fiercely Competitive The Wireless Industry Has Become

MediaPost - Mobile Data Revenues Up 22% in Second Quarter

Broadband Reports - Average Wireless User Eats 230MB Per Month

PC World - AT&T, Verizon Cashing in Outside of Phones

RCR Wireless - US consumers double their mobile data traffic consumption

Mobile Marketing Watch - US Carrier Keeps Beating Japanese Counterpart in Mobile Data

GigaOM - Stats: The Age of the Internet of Things Has Dawned

Poynter - US wireless market penetration passes 100 percent

RCR Wireless - Reality Check: Navigating the mobile ecosystem to leverage the iPad effect

Reuters - AT&T, Verizon cashing in outside of phones

FierceMobileContent - US Mobile Data Service Revenues top $13.2B in Q2

DVICE - Why cellphone bandwidth is running out

July

Reuters - App pioneer Getjar plans to stay independent

American Public Media: The Coming Data Traffic Jam (audio)

Reuters - Telecom software groups merge in app store battle

Ecommerce Journal - End of Apple App Store reign: WAC merges JIL

KPBS - Qualcomm Stock Price Jumps After Increased Profit Report

RCR Unplugged - Mobile apps revenues to reach $25B by 2014

MobileGetsPersonal - Sharma Outlines Industry Move to Tiered Pricing

ReadWriteWeb - 25 Billion Mobile App Downloads by 2015

American Medical News - Who made the app for that? Tale of 3 app developers

Nokia Conversations - Friday’s Pick

St. Petersburg Times - Mixed signals surround Apple over iPhone Antenna

Boston Herald - Antenna kerfuffle overshadows iPhone 4’s other successes

Businessweek - Smartphone Apps for College

Mobile Marketing - The Mobile World According to Chetan Sharma

Mediapost - Looking Back and Ahead In 2010 with Chetan Sharma

USA Today - Adam Curry shows off iPhone apps in his own video show

Business Week - Wireless Data: The End of All-You-Can-Eat?

Cellular News - Gaming to the future driver of mobile Internet

June

CNBC - Mobile Apps

San Diego Union Tribune - Low end of smartphones gets lift

Techflash - Morning Browse

Businessweek - AT&T’s money-saving plans will cost users more

Wired - Verizon signals the end of the unlimited data plan

Mercury News - Apple apologizes for iPhone 4 glitches

Wireless Week - T-Mobile Expands HSPA+ Coverage

BSN - Are iPhone Apps a Failed Business Model?

TMC - 3GPP Mobile Broadband sees 81% annual growth

PC Magazine - The Fastest Mobile Networks 2010

GigaOM - Picochip Gives Femtocells a New Lease on Life

TelecomTV - AT&T brings tiered mobile data pricing to the US

San Jose Mercury News - AT&T to stop offering "all you can eat" data plans

GigaOM - The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of AT&T’s New Pricing Plan

GigaOM - AT&T Shuts Down the Mobile Broadband Buffet

TMC Net - 3GPP Mobile Broadband Sees 81% Annual Growth

Mobile Entertainment - Nokia: We aspire to Apple’s user experience

May

GigaOM - Privacy as Competitive advantage in Mobile

Telecompaper - 3GPP mobile technology sees 81% growth in Americas

Thailand Business News - Thailand’s smartphone market skyrockets with Blackberry sales

IT Business Edge - Verizon shifting to tiered pricing for LTE network

BusinessWeek - Verizon’s 4G Plan Will Try Tiered Pricing

GigaOM - Verizon to Shift Usage Forecasting to Consumers With Tiered LTE

SeattleTimes - Game-changer at Microsoft

BusinessWeek - New Web Services Put Music in the Cloud

4gtrends - New balance of power in Japan as users convert to smartphones

GigaOM - America’s Amazing Rise to 3G Dominance

Businessweek - Billionaire McCaw’s New Mobile Bets on Profitless 4G Clearwire

Infoworld - Google and Facebook are violating your privacy

NYTimes - Cellphones Now Used More for Data Than for Calls

GigaOM - A Modest Proposal on Privacy

TMCNet - Network Data Traffic to Drive M2M Profits

TelecomTV - Softbank becomes first mobile telco to outsell voice with data

Mediapost - Verizon leads in Data Revenues

WirelessWeek - VZW Data Revenues Surpass DoCoMo

GigaOM - AT&T Verizon’s Future Is in Your Fridge

Fiercemobilecontent - US mobile data revenues exceed $12.5B in Q1

Telecompaper - US mobile data market up 22% in US

MobileMarketingWatch - US Mobile Data Exploding

MobileMarketing - iPad a Winner says Chetan Sharma

April

FierceMobileContent - Portals, Entertainment, Travel lead Mobile Advertising Spend

Bizrepot - MerchantCircle launches location-based app service

BusinessWeek - Social Phones Offer Shortcuts to the Web

Mediapost - Vanity vs. Sanity: Putting Apps in Context

TelecomTV - Technicality stops Skype on Verizon Android phones

NPR - Mobile Apps Market Scales Up From Zero to Billions

Bloomberg Law Reports - Why Continue to Invest in Patents?

Moconews - Microsoft’s Kin: Too Little, Too Late

Mobile Entertainment - Android rising in Japan

The Globe and Mail - Talk isn’t cheap in world’s biggest cellphone market

Mercury News - Apple: Enhanced multi-tasking will be added to iPhone software

Econsultancy - Mobile: Less phone, more data

Telemanagement - Mobile data is king: surpasses voice

GCN - Mobile data volume exceeds voice traffic for the first time

Nasdaq - Seismic shift in mobile use

Jerusalem Post - Android in Japan

Hot Hardware - Mobile Data Surpasses Voice Traffic for First Time

Phone+ - Analyst: Believe it, iPad will Strain AT&T’s Network

AllThingsDigital - A New First in Mobile: Data traffic Outstripped Voice Traffic Last Year

Business News Network - iPad and Mobile Networks (video)

Mediapost - US Led in Mobile Data Growth in 2009

PaidContent - A new first in mobile: Data traffic outstripped Voice traffic last year

Pluggd.in - Mobile App Stores - Asia leads the download race

BusinessWeek - AT&T may find Apple iPad Strains Network more than expected

BusinessWeek - Verizon joins AT&T and others in Booking Costs from Health-Care Law

March

GigaOM - Why Featurephones are the new Black for Mobile Apps?

BusinessWeek - Freeing the iPad from AT&T

WirelessWeek - VCast App Store Opens

WirelessWeek - National Broadband Plan - A Work in Progress

GigaOM - In the App Economy Does the Mobile Browser Matter?

RCR Wireless - America pushes the boundaries of broadband

FierceWireless - Breaking down usage-based data pricing

GigaOM - How Mobile Network Operators Must Evolve as Data Ramps Up

FierceWireless - User appetite for apps continues to surge

NY Times - LTE may heat up mobile net neutrality debate

PC World - LTE may heat up mobile net neutrality debate

Our Mobile Apps Research received unprecedented global coverage with hundreds of stories, here is a sampling ..


AFP - Mobile apps a $17.5B market by 2012

BBC - Mobile application sales to reach $17.5B by 2012

Business Insider - Number of Apps Stores Grew from 9 to 38 in 2009

BusinessWeek - Americans Pay More for Mobile Apps

Cellular News - Mobile apps to be worth $17.5B by 2012

Connected Planet - Apps trump CDs - but do we really need 38 app stores

Connected Planet - Mobile apps explode, but what about the little guys

Communities Dominate Brands - So what do we learn from Chetan Sharma’s Report on Mobile Apps

CNET - Mobile app demand to explode by 2012

Datamation - Mobile Application Sales to reach $17.5B by 2012

Ecommerce Times - Consumers go gaga over apps

eWeek - Apple-led apps market to hit $17.5B by 2012

Fast Company - Mobile Apps Sales to Hit $17.5B by 2012

FierceMobile - 50B mobile app downloads in 2012

GigaOM - Mobile Apps are hot, but don’t forget emerging markets

GoMo News - Growth in mobile apps may have hidden dangers

Guardian - Mobile Apps will outsell CDs by 2012

Information Week - Mobile Apps get top dollar in US

Mashable - Mobile App Market to Surge to $17.5B by 2012

Mobile Marketing Watch - Mobile Apps to Soar to $50B downloads by 2012

Mobile Entertainment - Mobile apps to outsell CDs by 2012

Moconews - Evidence that Apple is Onto Something

Msearchgroove - Chetan Sharma first to map app economy and landscape

NPR - App Store Study

PC World - Study’s forecast of Mobile App Explosion are Overblown

PC World - Apps are a goldmine for developers

ReadWriteWeb - Mobile App Marketplace: $17.5B by 2012

Seattle Times - Mobile apps $17B market soon, app seller claims

Techcrunch - Mobile app sales will overtake CD Sales by 2012

TelecomTV - Study forecasts $17.5B apps store revenues

Venturebeat - Mobile apps industry to hit $17.5B by 2012 with 50B in downloads

Wireless Week - Mobile apps will outsell CDs by 2012
WSJ - Studies Forecast Rapid Growth in Mobile Apps


FCC - National Broadband Plan

BusinessWeek - Clear’s Mobile Users Really Use the Service

US Today - Media Morning (MBS)

Seattle Times - Glaser on mobile biz, Apple and the Sesame Street problem (MBS)

Seattle Times - Former FCC boss on fed’s free wireless proposal (MBS)

Techflash - RealNetworks’ Rob Glaser on why Apple’s model must be stopped (MBS)

Techflash - RealNetworks advice to startups: It’s better to be lucky, than good (MBS)

Moconews - Former RealNetwork’s CEO Rob Glaser Says For Now Apple Has Won(MBS)

Moconews - FCC Former Chairman Says Agency Lacks Control Over Handset Makers(MBS)

GigaOM - Rob Glaser Defines the Superphone and Predicts the Mobile Future (MBS)

GigaOM - Former FCC Chair Lays Out the Limit on the Agency’s Authority (MBS)

PC World - Former FCC Chair Says More Fiber Will Help Wireless Crunch (MBS)

PC World - Rob Glaser Thinks Mobile Is the Next Big Thing (MBS)

B/OSS - Mobile Data Doesn’t Have to be Expensive

NPR - SXSW and Mobile Data Network Traffic

TMC - Enterprises to Find Increasing Challenges with Wireless Networks

GigaOM - The Disconnect Between Subscriber Growth & Revenues in Broadband and Mobile

Reuters - Telecom groups sit uneasily on client data gold mine

NY Times - Do All Small Businesses Need a Mobile Strategy?

FierceBroadbandWireless - New report enforces why operators are talking usage-based data pricing

GigaOM - Mobile’s Data Usage and Revenue Disconnect

GigaOM - US Mobile Market: Highly Competitive and iPhone Still Rocks

Techcrunch - In Mobile, Fragmentation is Forever, Deal With It

Mediapost - Coming Soon To A Wireless Store Near You

February

Reuters - What does the new LTE mobile technology offer?

VON - Mobile Data Can Be a Cheap Date

Billing & OSS World - Mobile Data Doesn’t Have to be Expensive

Businessweek - The Truth about Bandwidth

TelecomAsia - Mobile Broadband: Still growing but realism sinks in

Connected Planet - Youtube dominates mobile Internet traffic; mobile VoIP on the rise

Business Journal - The Apple effect on AT&T brings good times and bad

Telemanagement - Cutting an operator’s mobile data costs by 60% a year

Mobile Marketing Magazine - Report explains how operators can slash data costs

TMC - Research Shows How Operators Can Curb Mobile Data Costs

January

NYTimes - The iPad - To 3G or Not to 3G?

Businessweek - Apple iPad Adds to Pressure on AT&T

NYTimes - As Devices Pull More Data, Patience May Be Required

GigaOM - How AT&T Will Deal with iPad Data Traffic

Businessweek - iPad: Pushing More Americans to Pay More for Wireless Service

Businessweek - Mobile-Ad M&A Frenzy May Continue

Businessweek - Verizon Wireless-AT&T ‘Price War’ May Boost Revenues

GigaOM - In Q4, Data Was Mobile’s Hot Spot

RCR Wireless - RCR WIreless Digital Edition Jan 2010

Reuters - Are pico projectors the next big cellphone trend?

Mediapost - Verizon Cuts Voice Pricing, Streamlines Data Plans

MobileFuture - Net Neutrality Regulatory Proposals

Mercury News - Apple and Google: It’s a mobile turf war

GigaOM - How Microsoft Can Get Back in the Mobile Game

GigaOM - Wireless Pricing from Verizon Wireless

Mediapost - Survey: Mobile Execs See Big Ad Gains in 2010

GigaOM - China Mobile Data Gold Rush Begins

Plastics News - Consumers like their phones mobile, smart

New Paper – US Mobile Messaging Market – Growth and Opportunities

Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a comment

US Mobile Messaging Market - Growth and Opportunities

usmessaging_s

http://www.chetansharma.com/USMobileMessagingMarket.htm

Industry Study Sponsored by Sprint Nextel

Executive Summary

The US mobile data market has seen significant growth in terms of revenue growth and consumer adoption. In fact, the impressive data growth rate has made US the most valuable mobile data market in the world with almost $55 billion in data revenues in 2010 accounting for over 36% of the overall service revenues for the year.

A significant portion of the mobile data revenues comes from the most basic service of all – SMS (or TXT) Messaging. While the US was late in getting hooked on the texting craze that enamored most of the rest of the world, during the last few years, the consumers in the US have more than made up for the initial lag. The US is now the top texting nation in the world in terms of total volume as well in terms of per subscriber messages/day. This trend is much more pronounced in the younger demographics.

However, for the most part, texting has been a person-to-person (P2P) phenomenon with a smaller portion of the traffic being attributed to premium and business-to-consumer (B2C) SMS. With the decline of the ringtones and images business, the premium messaging growth has slowed down and migrated towards the standard B2C messaging which has grown over 50% in the last two years.

The business-to-consumer SMS has been taking off significantly as businesses find the SMS channel to be quite effective for communicating and engaging their customers and employees. There is significant pent-up demand for taking business-to-consumer SMS messaging to the next level by streamlining ecosystem pricing as well as access to the SMS infrastructure in a more user-friendly way.

This paper discusses the overall SMS ecosystem in the US market, the market size and the industry value chain. Further, it takes a look at the next phase of the ecosystem evolution with open APIs and flexible pricing models that will bring more businesses into the ecosystem and lead to higher revenue growth in the coming years.

Download full paper.

Thanks.

Chetan Sharma

Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this paper are our clients.

2011 Mobile Predictions Survey Results January 3, 2011

Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, ARPU, BRIC, CTIA, Carriers, Enterprise Mobility, European Wireless Market, IP, IP Strategy, Indian Wireless Market, Infrastructure, Intellectual Property, International Trade, Japan Wireless Market, Location Based Services, M&A, Mergers and Acquisitions, Microsoft Mobile, Middleware, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Event, Mobile Future, Mobile Future Forward, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Traffic, Networks, Patent Strategy, Patents, Privacy, US Wireless Market, WiMax, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment

2011 Mobile Predictions Survey

http://www.chetansharma.com/MobilePredictions2011.htm

Download PPT

Download PDF

First things first. From all of us at Chetan Sharma Consulting, we wish you and yours a very happy,

healthy, and prosperous 2011. Thanks to all who participated in our 2011 Mobile Predictions Annual Survey. We have found it is the best way to think about the trends coming our way.

We put some of the questions to our colleagues and industry leaders in the industry. We were able to glean some valuable insights from their choices and comments. This survey is different from some of the others in the sense that it includes industry movers and shakers participation. Executives and insiders (n=225) from leading mobile companies across the value chain and around the world opined to help us see what 2011 might bring.

Ten names were randomly drawn the limited edition Mobile Future Forward book. The winners are:

1. Jared Cornfeld, Industry analyst, FCC

2. Abhi Rele, Marketing, Microsoft

3. Christopher Billich ,Head of Mobile Advertising, Deutsche Telekom AG

4. Gary Cohen, VP/GM North America, Flirtomatic

5. Peter Jarich, Service Director, Current Analysis

6. Darren Austin, Director of Mobile, Expedia

7. Craig Fisher, Software Client Leader, IBM

8. Steve Wood, CEO, Perlego Systems, Inc.

9. Elliott Hamilton, Sr. Director of Strategic Planning, TeleCommunication Systems

10. Vishal Gupta, Vice President North America, Qualcomm Inc

Thanks again to everyone who contributed. We will be calling on you again next year. We are clearly

living in "interesting times" with never a dull moment in our dynamic industry. It has been a terrific

year for us here at Chetan Sharma Consulting and we are looking forward to 2011 and seeing many of

you along the way. We hope you enjoyed gaining from the collective wisdom.

Be well, Do Cool Work, Stay in touch.

Thanks. With warm wishes,

Your feedback is always welcome.

Thanks.

Chetan Sharma

Now onto the 2011 Mobile Industry Predictions Survey Results

The panel comprised of movers and shakers of the mobile industry from around the world.

ps2011_1

ps2011_2

What will be the biggest stories of 2011?

ps2011_3

In last year’s survey, Google/Android narrowly missed out to be the biggest story of the year but this year, the verdict was clear that Google will continue to dominate the headlines with Android devices and new updates and apps. Given that we are in the midst of 4G deployments and ITU’s flipflop on the definition, we could be in for an interesting year.

When will Verizon iPhone launch?

ps2011_4

Inordinate amount of ink has been spilt over Verizon’s iPhone speculation. However, given the chatter, our panel voted for a Q1 launch.

Who will be the most open player in the mobile ecosystem in 2011?

ps2011_5

In all our surveys Google has consistently cemented its perception of being the most open in the ecosystem.

Will Android tablet sales exceed iOS tablet sales in 2011?

ps2011_6

Last year, Android OS edged past iOS, however, given the lead iOS has had in tablets, it might be hard to overcome the number of shipments in 2011.

Who will make the biggest mobile acquisition in 2011?

ps2011_7

Got Cash? Big players are likely to go shopping but who will score the blockbuster deal of the year. Google and Microsoft will duke it out with Google taking the spoils.

How will the "Apps vs. Mobile Web" debate shape up in 2011?

ps2011_8

Apps vs Mobile Web has been as hotly debated in the industry as the CDMA vs. GSM battles of the past. Our panel thought Apps will continue to grow though mobile web starts to show its muscle.

By how much will the mobile advertising ad-spend increase in 2011?

ps2011_9

Our panel was more bullish on mobile advertising than last year with a good 50% of respondents aiming for 200% growth and higher.

Which market will be the biggest infrastructure in 2011 for sales opportunities?

ps2011_10

India and China are laying out 3G and North America is expanding on 4G. Infrastructure contracts abound.

Who will be the mobile come back story of 2011?

ps2011_11

Many long-time players are under the gun this year. Will Windows 7 help Microsoft or will Meego make Nokia competitive. Story will unfold this year.

Who will end up having the strongest position in the mobile payment/commerce space?

ps2011_12

While Japan/Korea markets have developed mature mobile payments solutions, the battle royale of mobile payments in North America will play out between the financial guys and Operators with Internet players making a strong run at it as well. 2011 might help decide the long-term winners in the space. Our panel thinks, the likes of Mastercard and Visa will edge out others in the tussle.

Which areas will feel the most impact from Regulators in 2011?

ps2011_13

Regulators can have a huge impact on the course of the industry and nation’s competitiveness. With the laws all but laid out, the real rulings might come from the courts.

Which solutions will gain the most traction for managing mobile data broadband consumption?

ps2011_14

2010 saw the emergence of tiered data pricing in North America and operators all over the world are bracing for a long-term challenge of managing mobile data growth. We have written extensively on this subject in our Yottabyte series. Our panel voted for Tiered pricing and 4G as the top two solutions.

Which category will generate the most data revenues in 2011?

ps2011_15

Global markets are quite different and while data service revenues have been growing in all regions, our panel breaks down by categories in terms of expected contribution from various segments.

What will help mobile cloud computing gain traction in 2011?

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Mobile Cloud Computing is expected to take several strides in 2011 with Media and Enterprise demand at the forefront.

What will be the most successful non-mobile phone category in 2011?

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As we have highlighted in our previous research, Connected devices have shown tremendous growth in 2010. Tablet seems to be clear category winner.

What will be the breakthrough category in mobile in 2011?

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Mobile payments and commerce are starting to take off and are expected to show the most growth in 2011.

By the end of 2011, how will we end up defining 4G?

ps2011_19

ITU’s flipflop means, anything above HSPA+ will be deemed a 4G technology.

Which enterprise segment will mobile impact the most?

ps2011_20

Mobile as a platform is booming with Retail finally getting into the swing of things and will show the most activity in 2011.

What will be the dominant revenue model for apps in 2011?

ps2011_21

While paid apps dominated the revenue stream in the early days, advertising and in-app payments are taking off on iOS and Android. Developers will play with a combination of models depending on what works on a given platform.

What mode of mobile payments will get traction in NA and WE in 2011?

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Operators experimented with mobile payments over the last few years, now is the time to put the solutions to the test.

Who was the mobile person of the year?

ps2011_23

Who can compete with King Jobs. Launching iconic devices year after another, Steve Jobs has set the direction of the industry since 2007 and was a clear favorite for the mobile person of the year. The tremendous success of the apps personified by blockbuster hit of "Angry Birds" took away the second spot with Andy Rubin’s Android effort won him the third spot.

Well, there you have it. The top trends and stories we will be talking about in 2011. Thanks again for all who participated and we hope that you found this useful as you embark on your journey for the year.

We will be keeping a close eye on the trends in the wireless data sector in our blog, twitter feeds, future research reports, and articles. The next US Wireless Data Market update will be released in Mar 2011. The next Global Wireless Data Market update will be issued in Mar 2011.

Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this paper are our clients.