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Mobile Future Forward – Preliminary Agenda Announced July 28, 2010

Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a comment

Mobile Future Forward – Seattle – Sept 8th

We are putting together an exciting agenda for the mobile executive summit with an incredible line-up of speakers, thinkers and doers. The meeting of the minds will hopefully inspire you, help meet the "key" decision makers in the mobile ecosystem, and learn a thing or two about the future direction of the mobile industry.

Give us your one day and we will give you the next 5 years in mobile.

Registration and other information at http://www.mobilefutureforward.com.

Avail your discount by using the code FUTBOL (expires July 31st 2010)

In proud partnership with: Amdocs, Bango, Clearwire, Intel, Millennial Media, OpenMarket, Openwave, Real Networks, Wavefront, and ZTE

 

Sept 8th 2010

 

6:30 am

Registration Opens. Breakfast and Networking

   

8:00 am

Introduction and Welcome

   

8:30 am

Keynote - Stephen David, former CIO, Procter & Gamble

   

9:00 am

Keynote - Glenn Lurie, President - Emerging Devices, AT&T

   

9:30 am

Keynote - Anand Chandrasekher, SVP and GM - Mobile, Intel

   

10 - 10:30 am

Break

   

10:30 am

Keynote - Takayuki Hoshuyama, CEO, D2Communications

   

11:00 am

Taking the pulse and where do we go from here

Mike Sievert, Chief Commercial Officer, Clearwire

Dr. Genevieve Bell, Fellow, Intel

Lirong Shi, President, ZTE

Subba Rao, CEO, Tata DoCoMo

   

12 - 1:30 pm

Lunch

   

1:30 pm

Network and Mobile Data Evolution 2010-2015

Wims Sweldens, President, Alcatel-Lucent

Neville Ray, Chief Network Officer, T-Mobile

Bob Azzi, Senior Vice President, Sprint

Matt Bross, CTO and Vice Chairman, Huawei

Sean Cai, Vice President - Advanced Wireless Technology, ZTE

Ken Denman, CEO, Openwave


Future of Content, Engagement, and Monetization

Louis Gump, Vice President - Mobile, CNN

Jack Kennedy, Senior Vice President - Digital, News Corp

Omar Javaid, Vice President, Converged Media, Motorola

Paul Palmieri, CEO, Millennial Media

John Zehr, Senior Vice President, ESPN Digital

Rob Glaser, Chairman, Real Networks and Partner, Accel

   

2:30 pm

mHealth - The Impact on Society and Global Health

Dr. Sailesh Chutani, CEO, Mobisante

Jon Stross, General Manager and Vice President, Babycenter.com

Dr. Boris Nikolic, Sr. Program Director, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Dr. Greg Brandenberg, CEO, Columbia Basin Health Association

Dr. Suzanne Clough, Chief Medical Officer, Welldoc


The Economics and Politics of Consumer Data
Krishna Vedati, Senior Vice President, AT&T Interactive
Chris Murphy, Head of Digital Strategy, adidas

   

3:30 - 4:00 pm

Break

   

4:00 pm

Evolution of Communication and Social Interaction

Christopher Dean, Chief Strategy Officer, Skype

Mario Quirez, Vice President - Product Management, Google

David Weiden, General Partner, Khosla Ventures

Joe Sims, Lead Partner, Booz&Co

Chamath Palihapitiya, Vice President - Mobile, Growth, Intl, Facebook

Mobile Cloud Computing - At the Tipping Point?

Hank Skorny, Senior Vice President - Media Cloud Computing, Real Networks

Brian Shepherd, President - Mobile Services and Marketing, Amdocs

Abhi Ingle, Vice President - Industry & Mobility Application Solutions, AT&T

5:00 pm

Internet of Things

Amir Mashkoori, CEO, Kovio

Tony Lewis, Vice President - Open Development, Verizon

Danny Bowman, President - Integrated Solutions Group, Sprint

Mark Selby, Vice President - Industry Collaboration, Nokia

At the Intersection of Gaming, Social, and Commerce
Tim Chang, Partner, NVP

6:00 - 8:00 pm

Adjourn, Reception, and Networking

Agenda subject to change

Register today at http://www.mobilefutureforward.com/register.html

40 Reasons to Attend Mobile Future Forward July 27, 2010

Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a comment

Regular readers know, we have been slowing working towards Mobile Future Forward which is shaping us really nicely. For the folks still on the fence, here are the 40 reasons to invest your time in Mobile Future Forward:

Glenn Lurie, President, AT&T

Danny Bowman, President, Sprint

Subba Rao, CEO, TataDoCoMo

Lirong Shi, President, ZTE

Brian Shepherd, President, Amdocs

Mike Sievert, CCO, Clearwire

Louis Gump, VP Mobile, CNN

Paul Palmieri, CEO, Millennial Media

Dr. Sailesh Chutani, CEO, Mobisante

Abhi Ingle, VP, AT&T

Ken Denman, CEO, Openwave

Amir Mashkoori, CEO, Kovio

Stephen David, Former CIO, Proctor & Gamble

Dr. Genevieve Bell, Intel Fellow, Intel

Hank Skorny, SVP, Real Networks

Jon Stross, VP/GM - Babycenter

Krishna Vedati, SVP/GM - Mobile, AT&T Interactive

Christopher Dean, CSO, Skype

Jack Kennedy, EVP, News Corp

David Weiden, Partner, Khosla Ventures

Anand Chandrasekhar, SVP/GM, Intel

Chamath Palihapitiya, VP Growth/Mobile, Facebook

Rob Glaser, Chairman, Real Networks

Wim Sweldens, President, Alcatel Lucent

Takayuki Hoshuyama, CEO, D2Communications

Neville Ray, SVP, T-Mobile

Bob Azzi, SVP, Sprint

Mario Queiroz, VP—Android, Google

Matt Bross, CTO/Vice Chairman, Huawei

Tony Lewis, VP, Verizon

Sean Cai, VP, ZTE

Mark Selby, VP, Nokia

Omar Javaid, VP, Motorola

Chris Murphy, Head Digital Strategy, adidas

Tim Chang, Partner, NVP

Dr. Suzanne Clough, CMO, Welldoc

Dr. Boris Nikolic, Program Manager, Bill&Melinda Gates Foundation

John Zehr, SVP, ESPN

Joe Sims, Partner, Booz&Co.

Dr. Greg Brandenberg, CEO, CBHA

More details at www.mobilefutureforward.com – Hope to see you there.

American Public Media: The Coming Data Traffic Jam July 25, 2010

Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , 1 comment so far

Had a chance last week to discuss mobile data congestion with John Moe host of Future Tense at American Public Media

The coming data traffic jam

07/23/10 09:35 AM

LISTEN DOWNLOAD

If you don’t own a smart phone now, you probably will soon.

Here’s the picture from Wall Street:  Nokia, which pretty much makes regular old cell phones, announced a 40 percent drop in revenues Thursday. On the same day, AT&T said they had a huge quarter with lots of new customers for the iPhone activated 3.2 million new iPhones last quarter. Meanwhile, research firm Strategy Analytics says smart phone shipments are up 43 percent worldwide.

Americans are ditching cell phones in favor of devices that can make calls AND check email AND update Facebook AND stream video AND you get the idea.  In the process, we’re flooding the data networks these smart phones rely on. It’s lots of fun now, but is it sustainable? Can the networks do what we’re asking of them?

We check in with industry analyst Cheetan Sharma, whose clients include both AT&T and Verizon, about this issue. We also talk to Glenn Fleishman of Wi-Fi Networking News.

Mobile Industry 1H 2010 Assessment July 8, 2010

Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, BRIC, CTIA, Carnival of Mobilists, Carriers, Enterprise Mobility, European Wireless Market, Gaming, Indian Wireless Market, Japan Wireless Market, M&A, MVNO, Mergers and Acquisitions, Microsoft Mobile, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Event, Mobile Future, Mobile Future Forward, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Search, Mobile TV, Mobile Traffic, Partnership, Smart Phones, Speaking Engagements, Strategy, US Wireless Market, Usability, VoIP, Wi-Fi, WiMax, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 2 comments

Mobile Industry 1H 2010 Assessment

http://chetansharma.com/1H10mobileassessment.htm

As the mobile world approaches the 5 billion subscription landmark, it is time to do a half yearly assessment of 2010. We will have our official Q2 2010 analysis for the US market in Aug and the global analysis for 1H 2010 in Sept after all the numbers are in. In the meantime, it might be worthwhile to take a stock of the first 6 months, the ensuing trends and what they mean for the long-term.

Mobile Ecosystem has become much more complex

In case you didn’t notice, the competitive landscape has changed significantly over the last 6-12 months. The fine line between partners and competitors can get obliterated in a quarter. Apple is competing with Cisco, Comcast is going after AT&T’s business, Visa and Verizon want to be the payment channel of choice, Amazon is gunning for Microsoft’s enterprise business, Kodak is competing with Yahoo, so on and so forth. One product launch, one acquisition, can change the game in an instant.  And this is only the beginning.

Network evolution: more capacity, more bandwidth, tremendous usage

We have covered this topic in detail in our paper - Managing growth and profits in the Yottabyte era. As we had predicted, the tiering of pricing plan has started in the US which is actually a good thing. It will force some discipline and technology innovation to solve the longer-term problem of network congestion. While AT&T got things in motion, market forces will take care of the right pricing and GB levels in the coming months. Data consumption on TeliaSonera and Clearwire’s network is a good indicator of what’s to come with 3-4x the usage compared to its counterparts.

New sources of revenue: mobile advertising, commerce, and more

Regular readers know that we have been bullish on the mobile advertising space for a long time. Over the last 6 months or so, some of the pieces are coming together though significant amount of work remains. Sergio Zyman, former CMO of Coca Cola once said “There is only one rule: advertising must sell.” And nothing will sell better than mobile. Period. While North America and Western Europe have been slow to wake up to the mobile commerce opportunities, in Japan, it is already a multi-billion dollar industry. Several trials are underway that are going to help open up the western market in the next 12 months for significant opportunities. In fact, the pie for the mobile services will keep on growing bigger but so will the number of players who want a piece of it. This will set up an interesting tug-of-war for the next couple of years

It’s the iPhone, dude!

Just when the competitors think they are all caught up with Apple,  Steve Jobs and co. releases a new product that raises the bar further. Google, Samsung, HTC, LG, Motorola have done well in emulating Apple while Microsoft and Nokia have fallen behind. The embarrassing launch and demise of KIN is a example of how confused things are for some of the players. While both Microsoft and Nokia are capable for mounting good comebacks, it will take more than an org change and a sprinkle of holy water. Android will easily outsell iPhone just by the law of arithmetic but Apple’s secret weapon is iTunes. With over 150M billing relationships, it has fostered a great apps ecosystem that others will find hard to replicate entirely. While some point to Apple’s tiny marketshare, wall street looks at the fat margins - rewarding Apple by making it the most valuable technology company surpassing Microsoft in a major tech tremor. Google has run the mobile chess game with great acumen so far. Despite the Nexus experiment, the explosion of the superphone category has gone according to the plan. Overall, most of the western operators are selling smartphones at 50%+ levels each quarter.

Always On Real-Time Access

The always-connected vision of the late Mark Weiser is finally approaching some realization. Mobile is so perfectly suited for cloud computing. The younger generation is growing with the expectation that they can get access to any content from any device anywhere. The constraints and friction that doesn’t allow them to do that is just not acceptable. As such, the mobile industry is scrambling to provide tools and technologies that help the digerati access content at will. All this has to be designed and developed against the current network, content, and device constraints and evolution paths. Whether it is access to music or movies for a 15 year old or availability of the entire corporate knowledgebase, information will need to be available at a touch of a button. Companies big and small are investing in the infrastructure and software tools to make this happen. We are likely to see some interesting launches in the next 12 months.

Battle for the analytical mind - data, context and intelligence drives everything

Many people don’t realize that the battle for the consumer of 2015-2020 has already begun. The company that has the best understanding about the most consumers will have a pole position in the mobile ecosystem. Players like Google, Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Microsoft, Facebook, Twitter, China Mobile, Disney, AT&T, Vodafone, Motorola, and others are amassing a lot of information on individuals. Besides Google and Apple, Facebook has quietly become one of the most important players in the mobile ecosystem with its phenomenal reach across many countries, tremendous stickiness of the app, and innovative onboarding process of the carriers. Of course, data is a double edged sword - it can provide enormous benefits to consumers in terms of intelligence, experience, and engagement and can also prove to be problematic when privacy and data breaches happen. In fact, that will be one of the tightest ropes many including the regulators will have to walk this decade - figuring out what they call in Swedish - logam - the right balance.

Apps vs. the Web

Recently, the ecosystem has been more enamored with the apps vs. the web debate than the early departure of Brazil and Argentina from the world cup. It is rather a silly debate. As we mentioned in our apps economy paper, both worlds will coexist for a long time. What matters for the developers is the “reach” of a certain platform or technology and the “cost” and “potential” of that reach. For the user, the only thing that matters is what’s available on “their” device. Obviously, the capabilities of the mobile browser will grow over time and it will make more sense to build certain category of applications for the web vs. on the native platforms but developers live and die in the present.

Internet of Things

Nokia took the leadership stance of announcing that all of their smartphones by the next year will have NFC. You can expect pretty much all major OEMs following the same trend which means that hundreds of millions of devices will be equipped with a chipset that will enable new experiences, applications and services. Though we still need to do a lot of work to complete the end-to-end ecosystem, we are getting close. Further, all major carriers have created separate units to address the M2M and emerging devices opportunity. iPad showed what’s possible - it fundamentally created a new leisure computing category. Also, iPad (and similar form factor devices) will find good usage in the enterprise as well. Pretty soon, it will be hard to imagine a computing device without the communication capability. Operators will have to release pricing plans to accommodate such an evolution.

Nurturing ecosystems - fight for the developer mindshare

It is good to be a developer in 2010. The success of many players goes through developersville. The love fest won’t last forever though, it will depend on how vibrant the various ecosystems become and how profitable individual developer shops are over the course of time. One thing Microsoft did very well with the windows empire was to create a web of partners and developers who were incented to use the tools and develop for the platform. In a more fragmented world of mobile, things are a bit complicated. Developers don’t have time or the energy to go after the newest, shiniest toy, what matters in the end is the “cost” to develop, “reach/distribution” of the platform, and “potential” of the reach. Players who don’t consciously make an effort to make developers thrive in their ecosystem will see their developer efforts collapse like house of cards. While the media attention is squarely on iOS and Android, we are not heading down the duopoly path as the dynamics of the mobile ecosystem are significantly different from that of the PC. RIM, Nokia, Samsung and others will do well, the fight is over the relative rankings in the pecking order.

Shifts in the revenue sand dunes

By the end of 2010, the global ondeck revenues will be overtaken by the offdeck revenues. As the smartphone penetration grows, it is less likely that the user will purchase VAS from the operator. While the carrier gets a healthy access revenue of $15-40 or more/month, the VAS business is shrinking for many. Some operators are trying to extract some value but are likely to follow T-Mobile’s path and give up on the smartphone appstore eventually. On the featurephones and probably low-tier smartphones, operator do have a role to play but perhaps some of it can be outsourced to other appstore providers so that they can focus on higher-margin services. We are going to see a readjusting of the appstores again in the next 12-24 months with the weaker ones whittling away from the landscape.

New experiences - display, interaction and commerce

The man-machine interaction took a significant leap with the introduction of the iPhone. Now the touch-interface is embedded in our evolutionary genes. There is significant work going into accomplishing more with less friction with the help of new interfaces and experiences that can like trying out a new outfit in front of a mirror - at home or in the store and with a flick of finger - choose the color, purchase it, and get it shipped. The amount of time it takes to “accomplish any given task” is going to reduce dramatically. With the help of contextual sensors, extreme personalization, and brainiac software, we will take automation to a new level. This will lead to new experiences that will enable more commerce, social interaction and participation, and general awareness and intelligence about every day things. Examples like Kinect, Augmented Reality, Projection displays are just the start of the decade when the display and interaction paradigms will be fundamentally redefined.

Reallocation of revenues - winners and losers are decided in reallocation

If we take a look at the spending habits of the US consumers on “access and communication services” which includes the spending on Telephone, Cable, Internet, and Cell phones, the total “access” spending over the course of last decade has been consistently around 4% of the total personal income per capita. However, the share of each of the services has been changing steadily. Telephone used to have 65% share of the spending but is going to be below 30% by end of 2010. Others have been climbing at the expense of telephone revenues, especially the cellphones which since 2007 command the highest share. So, the overall spending has stayed constant while there has been significant reallocation of spending. Similarly, within cell phone services, data has gone from being less than 1% of the overall revenues to over 35% in 2010 and is going to be more than 50% of the overall revenue mix by early 2013. Mobile operators will need to figure out how to manage these reallocation undercurrents and maintain the overall life time value of the customer. It will come from re-architecting of the business and technology practices as well through the introduction of new services.

Mobile takes off in Verticals

Mobile has become a full-fledged computing platform and other industries are taking notice. There is significant work going on in the mHealth, mRetail, mCommerce, mEducation, mEnergy, and others to keep things busy for the next few years. There are some really innovative startups focused on making use of the computing power that the device affords and turn them into full-fledged medical instruments. Add the communication bit and you can see the revolution happening in front of your eyes. The impact on saving lives and quality of health care will be tremendous - worldwide. The regulators and the legacy players will need to keep up. As we mentioned before, the NFC wave is coming and if all goes well, it will change the retail experience. Stay tuned.

(Mobile) World is flat

There is a significant readjusting of players going on right now with some of the Asian players flexing their muscles for dominant share of the market. Competition is driving more M&A, the gravity of the mobile data world is slowly shifting from Japan and Korea to the US with Verizon overtaking the long time leader NTT DoCoMo in terms of quarterly mobile data revenues. India’s Bharti became the number 5 operator after completing the acquisition of Zain. On the device front, Samsung and LG have been ferocious in their pursuit of marketshare and have been rewarded well by their performance esp. in the North American market. HTC has undergone metamorphosis and has become a serious competitor. Many non-traditional brands like Dell, Garmin, HP, Cisco are also flexing their muscles in the space that has become the computing battleground. On the infrastructure front, ZTE and Huawei are going to make life difficult for some of the players. We can expect the big “M&As” to continue as the industry consolidates around the top 3 players in different markets and sectors. The local skirmishes will spill into the global arena. North American operators have been curiously silent on the global front. Being the most lucrative mobile market probably has something to do with it  but we can expect some of the bigger players to go shopping in the coming days.

Regulatory Excursions

The much-awaited national broadband plan was finally unveiled earlier this year. The current FCC has done a good job of engaging the industry and informing the citizens, better than its predecessors. It is also taking a deeper interest in setting up guidelines for the industry. The Comcast ruling was a setback but FCC is moving ahead with its plans. It will be interesting to see the execution details and how things pan out over the course of this decade. Similarly, regulatory agencies in other nations are acutely aware of the role broadband plays in nations economy and competitiveness and what they need to do keep their country on track. The mad scramble for more spectrum is underway. FTC is also keeping a close eye on the mobile industry for privacy related violations. If someone has any doubts of how much regulators are likely to get involved in this matter should read through the settlement between the FTC and Twitter.

Scenario Analysis - more changes in the next 10 years than in the previous 100

Despite all the commotion, the excitement, and the turbulence in the ecosystem, the trajectory of the winners and losers is not set. Like the Chaos theory, a lot depends on how the dynamic elements of the mobile universe effect and react to changes.  Players will do well to have strategies in place per scenario so they can adapt quickly and keep the mother ship in the right direction. We can expect more changes in the next 10 years than in the previous 100. The triggers for various scenarios will vary - regulatory, competitive, technology, business model, consumer adoption, economic - each of these can have an impact on how a trend becomes the fact of life.

To discuss all these trends and more, we are putting together a unique Mobile Future Forward Executive Summit and are fortunate to have the company of some of the sharpest minds in the industry, folks who both have the vision to shape the evolution and the authority to invest billions of dollars this decade to make things happen. Hope to see you in Seattle on Sept 8th.

First 25 readers to use the discount code FUTBOL get $200 off the regular price.

Abhi Ingle, VP, AT&T; Amir Mashkoori, CEO, Kovio; Anand Chandrasekhar, SVP & GM, Intel; Bob Azzi, SVP - Network, Sprint Nextel; Chamath Palihapitiya, VP - Growth, Mobile, Intl, Facebook; Christopher Dean, Chief Strategy Officer, Skype; Danny Bowman,President, Sprint Nextel; David Weiden, General Partner, Khosla Ventures; Dr. Boris Nikolic, Sr. Program Officer, Global Health & Discovery, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Dr. Genevieve Bell, Intel Fellow & Director, User Experience, Intel; Dr. Greg Brandenberg,CEO, Columbia Basin Health Association; Dr. Sailesh Chutani, CEO, Mobisante; Dr. Suzanne Clough, Chief Medical Officer, WellDoc; Glenn Lurie, President, AT&T; Hank Skorny, SVP, Media Mobile Cloud Computing, Real Networks; Jack Kennedy, EVP, News Corp; Joe Sims, Lead Partner - Digital Convergence , Booz & Company; Jon Stross, VP & GM - Babycenter, Johnson & Johnson; Ken Denman, CEO, Openwave; Krishna Vedati, SVP & GM - Mobile, AT&T Interactive; Lirong Shi, President, ZTE; Louis Gump, VP Mobile, CNN; Mario Queiroz, VP - Product Management - Android, Google; Mark Selby, VP, Nokia; Matt Bross,CTO and Vice Chairman, Huawei; Michael Sievert, Chief Commercial Officer, Clearwire;Neville Ray, Chief Network Officer, T-Mobile ; Omar Javaid, CEO, BBDO; Paul Palmieri, Founder and CEO, Millennial Media; Rob Glaser, Chairman, Real Networks and Partner, Accel;Sean Cai, VP - Advanced Technology, ZTE; Stephen David, Former CIO, Proctor & Gamble;Subba Rao, CEO, TataDoCoMo; Takayuki Hoshuyama, CEO D2 Communications; Tony Lewis, VP, Verizon; Wim Sweldens, President, Alcatel-Lucent

Each panel discussion will involve luminaries/experts on specific topics, for e.g.

M2M/Internet of Things

Danny Bowman, President, Sprint

Amir Mashkoori, CEO, Kovio

Tony Lewis, VP, Verizon Wireless

Mark Selby, VP, Nokia

Evolution of Communication/ Engagement

Christopher Dean, Chief Strategy Officer, Skype

Chamath Palihapitiya, VP - Mobile, Facebook

Mario Queiroz, VP - Android, Google

David Weiden, General Partner, Khosla Ventures

The size of the panel will be small and the time duration long so we can delve deep into the issues and questions. For more details, please visit http://www.mobilefutureforward.com

Your feedback is always welcome.

Thanks.

Chetan Sharma

Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this paper are our clients.

BW Article: Smartphone Use on the Web Goes Mainstream

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Talked to Businessweek about the pricing plans, data consumption and all things smartphones

Smartphone Use on the Web Goes ‘Mainstream’

More U.S. adults—particularly African Americans and Hispanics—are using smartphones to e-mail, network, surf, and send video, says Pew Research

By Olga Kharif

Smartphone use is gathering steam in the U.S., new research shows. Forty percent of American adults use their cell phones to surf the Web, e-mail, or use instant messaging, according to a study from Pew Research Center in Washington.

That’s up from 32 percent a year ago, based on Pew’s survey of 2,252 adults ages 18 and older that was released on July 7. "The smartphone has really penetrated the mainstream of American society," says Aaron Smith, a Pew research specialist. In the first quarter, smartphones accounted for 34 percent of all mobile handsets sold in the U.S., up from 31 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, according to consultant NPD Group.

Smartphone sales are getting a summer boost from last month’s introduction of Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone 4 from AT&T (T). Motorola’s (MOT) Droid X will be released through Verizon Wireless on July 15.

A separate report suggests that smartphone growth may ebb in the second half of the year as high unemployment and the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico curb consumer confidence and curtail demand for some nonessential services. "Remarkable smartphone-penetration growth is going to slow down," says Tero Kuittinen, a senior analyst at MKM Partners, an institutional equity trading and research firm in Stamford, Conn., in an interview. After rising for three consecutive months, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped in June to near the level it reached in March. The index is based on a survey of 5,000 U.S. households and reflects consumer sentiment about the economy.

Amid economic woes, the next smartphone growth spurt may come from cheaper devices. "Specifically, consumers want smartphones priced at $100-$190, and our research finds little supply in this price range," Kuittinen wrote in a July 6 MKM report. To keep sales up, device manufacturers may have to face faster-than-expected price drops through 2011, he says. Phone makers such as Huawei and LG (066570:KS) are expected to push into lower-priced smartphones in the next year.

WEB ACCESS VIA OTHER DEVICES

To spur adoption, carriers may need to keep slashing prices on their cheapest smartphone plans as well. AT&T, the second-largest U.S. mobile-service provider, introduced a $15 limited data plan on June 2. In six to nine months, the average smartphone user will pay just $10 a month for data connectivity, down from $15 today, estimates wireless consultant Chetan Sharma. "The barriers to getting data plans are coming down," he says.

Less-expensive data plans may encourage additional consumers to access the Web via smartphones and other mobile devices. Some 3 percent of respondents in the Pew survey own a tablet PC such as an iPad. About 60 percent of them have used the device to access the Internet. About 4 percent own e-book readers such as Amazon.com’s (AMZN) Kindle and almost half use the gadgets to access the Web.

Overall, 59 percent of adults in the U.S. go online wirelessly, via Wi-Fi or mobile connections, on cell phones and laptops, up from 51 percent a year ago, according to the Pew report. Among all cell-phone owners, 54 percent used their devices to send photos and videos, 23 percent accessed a social networking site, and 11 percent made a purchase.

Older adults are venturing onto the mobile Web in larger numbers, too. Some 43 percent of people between the ages of 30 and 49 access the Internet, up from 31 percent a year ago, the study showed. Those people are also more likely to send or receive e-mails and instant messages. African American and Hispanic consumers remain at the forefront of mobile-Web adoption. More than 50 percent of English-speaking Hispanic users access the Internet on their phones, compared with 46 percent of African Americans and 33 percent of Caucasians, the Pew study found. "For many Americans, their cell phone is one of the essential utilities of modern life," says Pew’s Smith.

Kharif is a reporter for Bloomberg Businessweek in Portland, Ore.

Partner Event Next Week – Mobilebeat

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MobileBeat 2010, VentureBeat’s third annual conference on the future of mobile, is less than a week away! Recently added to the program is John Donovan, CTO of AT&T Operations, who completes a powerful keynote lineup that includes Phil McKinney, VP & CTO of HP’s Personal System Groups, Omar Khan, Chief Strategy Officer of Samsung, and Omar Hamoui, AdMob founder and now Google’s VP of Mobile Ads. Newly added panelists include Christy Wyatt of Motorola Mobile Devices, Pooja Midha of MTV Networks Digital and Ian McKerlich of T-Mobile who join a stellar array of insiders such as Erick Tseng of Facebook and Kevin Thau of Twitter.

Click here and use promo code "VB-Chetan" to get 15% off.

This year’s new two-day format will explore "The Year of The Superphone and Who Will Profit", and will be held on July 12-13 at The Palace Hotel in San Francisco.  Heavy-hitters from all sectors of the mobile ecosystem are assembling at MobileBeat 2010 to discuss, debate, and explore who’ll win in the midst of the superphone revolution, and why. Find out which of the growing number of mobile platforms is winning the hearts and minds of developers with T-Mobile, Google Mobile, Symbian and Angry Bird. Take on the subject of location with Twitter’s Director of Geo, Location Labs, SCVNGR and Booyah. Hear about what’s next on the horizon of the hot mobile gaming arena with Zynga, Moblyng, Chomp and PapayaMobile.

You’ll also get a peek at 20 of the hottest new mobile startups in the applications and infrastructure/services categories as they present live onstage at the MobileBeat 2010 Startup Competition.  Help select the ones most likely to shake up the mobile world. Winners will receive VentureBeat’s coveted Tesla Award.

Agenda highlights:

Keynotes
- John Donovan, CTO AT&T Operations
- Phil McKinney, VP & CTO of HP’s Personal System Groups
- Omar Khan, Chief Strategy Officer of Samsung
- Omar Hamoui, AdMob founder and now Google’s VP of Mobile Ads
Move over, Telcos, Here comes Silicon Valley
- Samir Argawal, Nokia, Head of MeeGo software development
- Kevin Thau, director of mobile, Twitter
Mobile Platforms 1: the Future Struggle Among the Titans
- Christy Wyatt, SVP Motorola
- David Ko, Yahoo! SVP, Audience, Mobile and Local, North America
- Alan Brenner, SVP at RIM
Mobile Platforms 2: Who is Winning the Heart of Developers?
- Jason Spero, Director, Mobile, Google
- Ian McKerlich, T-Mobile, Director of Mobile Content
- Oliver Gunasakera, Symbian
- Peter Vesterbacka, Angry Bird
Building a Successful Mousetrap
- Russ McGuire, Sprint, VP of Strategy
- "Tyler Lessard VP, Global Alliances and Developer Relations RIM
- Ilja Laurs, founder and CEO, GetJar
- Laura Merling, Alcatel-Lucent, Vice President Developer Plat. and Programs
It’s 5pm. Do You Know Where Your Friends Are?
- Othman Laraki, Director Geo, Twitter
- Tasso Roumeliotis, Location Labs, Founder & CEO
- Seth Priebatsch, Chief Ninja, SCVNGR
- Keith Lee, CEO, Booyah (MyTown)
Enabling Mobile Games
- Stewart Putney, Founder and CEO, Moblyng
- Ben Keighran, Chomp, CEO & Co-Founder
- Si Chen, PapayaMobile, CEO

For a complete list of speakers, panels, and breakout sessions, check out the full agenda here.

Chetan Sharma Consulting will be attending. If you want to meet, give us a shout.

Mobile Future Forward: Participant Profile July 6, 2010

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BW article: Wireless Data: The End of All-You-Can-Eat?

Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , 1 comment so far

Talked to Greg at Businessweek about the mobile data consumption trends. Regular readers shouldn’t be really surprised by this. We knew this for a couple of years :) sometimes it just takes a bit long

 

Wireless Data: The End of All-You-Can-Eat?

AT&T’s switch from unlimited plans may set the tone for U.S. carriers

By Greg Bensinger

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When AT&T (T) announced on June 2 that it would stop offering an unlimited wireless data plan, it said 98 percent of its customers would save money with the change. About two weeks later, Verizon Wireless Chief Financial Officer John Killian said the largest U.S. carrier may soon follow suit and switch from all-you-can-eat data programs to tiered pricing.

The savings for half those AT&T customers, however, may disappear by 2013, says independent wireless analyst Chetan Sharma. Here’s why: Under the new plan, 2 gigabytes of data will cost $25 a month; each additional GB will cost $10. (The unlimited plan, still available to customers who signed contracts prior to the switch, costs $29.99.) Sharma, who has consulted for Motorola (MOT) and Qualcomm, predicts the average customer will consume 4 GB of data a month within three years, up from 150 megabytes in 2009 and an estimated 320 MB by yearend, noting that 4G networks, fully in place by mid-2012, will accelerate consumption.

Increasingly versatile and powerful devices such as Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone and iPad and HTC’s EVO are encouraging users to suck up more data. Verizon will begin selling the iPhone in January, as reported exclusively by Bloomberg News. AT&T, the No. 2 carrier in the U.S., says listening to 2.5 hours of streamed music a day adds up to 2.2 GB of data per month. Streaming a feature-length film to a mobile device eats up about 200 MB. "The downloading of video is really driving data usage," says Greg MacDonald, an analyst at National Bank Financial.

AT&T’s data-cap plan remains the exception in the U.S., but the billing method is commonplace in Europe. The move comes as landline revenues are shrinking and data is providing a fast-expanding portion of AT&T’s bottom line. Wireless data revenue rose 30 percent for the company in the first quarter, to $4.1 billion, while landline voice revenue fell 12 percent, to $7.5 billion.

Sprint Nextel (S), the third-largest U.S. wireless carrier, says it has no immediate plans to change its pricing. "It’s inevitable that most of the U.S. carriers will switch to tiered pricing as the usage continues to go up," says MacDonald.

The bottom line: As mobile data use per customer accelerates, other U.S. wireless providers are likely to follow AT&T and change their pricing policies.

Bensinger is a reporter for Bloomberg News.

In case you missed … July 1, 2010

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Happy July. Articles from June ..

CNBC - Mobile Apps

San Diego Union Tribune - Low end of smartphones gets lift

Techflash - Morning Browse

Businessweek - AT&T’s money-saving plans will cost users more

Wired - Verizon signals the end of the unlimited data plan

Mercury News - Apple apologizes for iPhone 4 glitches

Wireless Week - T-Mobile Expands HSPA+ Coverage

BSN - Are iPhone Apps a Failed Business Model?

TMC - 3GPP Mobile Broadband sees 81% annual growth

PC Magazine - The Fastest Mobile Networks 2010

GigaOM - Picochip Gives Femtocells a New Lease on Life

TelecomTV - AT&T brings tiered mobile data pricing to the US

San Jose Mercury News - AT&T to stop offering "all you can eat" data plans

GigaOM - The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of AT&T’s New Pricing Plan

GigaOM - AT&T Shuts Down the Mobile Broadband Buffet

TMC Net - 3GPP Mobile Broadband Sees 81% Annual Growth

Mobile Entertainment - Nokia: We aspire to Apple’s user experience

Partner Event: paidContent Mobile

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