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New WhitePaper: Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era July 14, 2009

Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, ARPU, BRIC, Carriers, Enterprise Mobility, European Wireless Market, Indian Wireless Market, Japan Wireless Market, Location Based Services, MVNO, Mergers and Acquisitions, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Search, Mobile TV, Mobile Usability, Mobile Users, Networks, Smart Phones, Speaking Engagements, Strategy, US Wireless Market, Wi-Fi, WiMax, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 2 comments

Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era

yottabyte_cover_s

Executive Summary

In Q1 2009, the US market exceeded $10B in quarterly mobile data service revenues for the first time. The subscription penetration in the US is well past 90% and the mobile data usage is on the rise. While the rate of new subscriptions has slowed, the pace of innovation is going very strong. It is quite apparent that the mobile industry is going through a significant transition from voice to data, from making calls to getting lost in applications and from voice communications to multimedia communications. Helped by the ever expanding wireless broadband networks, and release of hit devices every quarter, and consumer’s insatiable appetite for information and content has brought us to the surge of a data tsunami that will shake the industry to its core.

yb1

As everything moves to digital, information repositories across the web are almost doubling every day moving rapidly to the yottabyte (YB) era. The information and the desire and the capability to consume oodles of data is increasing exponentially. As a result the traffic – both Wireline and wireless is also increasing at a predictably fast rate.

In 2009, the global yearly mobile data traffic will reach a new milestone – 1 Exabyte(EB) or 1 Million Terabytes (TB).By 2016-17, the global yearly mobile data traffic is likely to exceed 1 Zettabyte (ZB) or 1000 Exabytes. By 2014, in the US alone, the total yearly mobile data traffic is likely to exceed 40 EB. How do you go about managing such growth in a profitable manner when the cost of supporting such traffic will increase exponentially despite the move to 4G? Will the move to LTE offer some respite?

This paper discusses the analysis done by Chetan Sharma Consulting on the growth of mobile data traffic in the US market and how the ecosystem can apply some strategies to manage growth and profits. We built detailed models to estimate the rise of mobile data network traffic and discuss some solutions to handle such growth in this paper.

Download Paper

Your feedback is always welcome.

Should you have any questions about navigating or understanding the economic and competitive icebergs, please feel free to drop us a line.

Thanks.

Chetan Sharma

Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this paper are our clients.

Announcing Seattle Mobile Breakfast Series

Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, Speaking Engagements, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 1 comment so far

mobileBreakfastLogo_dark_small

openwavemotricity_logologo_clearwire

It is with great pleasure that I announce the launch of the Seattle Mobile Breakfast Series - a quarterly event to discuss all things mobile by bringing the best minds together. Seattle has long been on the forefront of the mobile evolution in North America going back tot he McCaw Days. In fact, many of the senior folks you will find in the region have had their early career exposure with McCaw Cellular. Since then, the industry has evolved and so has the region. Seattle is home to carriers AT&T, T-Mobile, and Clearwire, industry giants like Microsoft and Amazon, and industry pioneers like Motricity and Real, and a host of startups like Ontela, Zumobi, Cequint, and many others.

So, it is only fitting to bring together the enterprising folks from the region to network and brainstorm once a quarter at the “Seattle Mobile Breakfast Series.”

We are very fortunate to announce that three great sponsors have joined in as the founding sponsors: Clearwire, Motricity, and Openwave. My thanks to Ken Denman, Brendan Benzing, and Jeff Giard for their enthusiastic support of the idea. We couldn’t have done this without you.

What can you expect: In-depth panel discussions, stellar keynotes, networking, great breakfast, awesome views, and good reason to escape and relax.

Stay tuned for more. In the mean time,

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Introducing "Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era" July 10, 2009

Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, ARPU, Carriers, Devices, European Wireless Market, Indian Wireless Market, Japan Wireless Market, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Speaking Engagements, Worldwide Wireless Market , 2 comments

Yesterday at the TiE Seattle keynote, I introduced some research from my upcoming paper “Managing Growth and Profits in the Yottabyte Era.” See coverage here.

I will be releasing the paper next week. In the meantime, here is the Introduction

In Q1 2009, the US market exceeded $10B in quarterly mobile data service revenues for the first time.[1] The subscription penetration in the US is well past 90% and the mobile data usage is on the rise. While the rate of new subscriptions has slowed, the pace of innovation is going very strong. It is quite apparent that the mobile industry is going through a significant transition from voice to data, from making calls to getting lost in applications and from voice communications to multimedia communications. Helped by the ever expanding wireless broadband networks, and release of hit devices every quarter, and consumer’s insatiable appetite for information and content has brought us to the surge of a data tsunami that will shake the industry to its core.

As everything moves digital, information repositories across the web is almost doubling every day. The information and the desire and the capability to consume oodles of data is increasing exponentially. As a result the traffic – both Wireline and wireless is also increasing at a predictably fast rate.

In 2009, the global yearly mobile data traffic will reach a new milestone – 1 Exabyte (EB) or 1 Million Terabytes (TB). [2] By 2016-17, the global yearly mobile data traffic is likely to exceed 1 Zettabyte (ZB) or 1000 Exabytes. By 2014, in the US alone, the total yearly mobile data traffic is likely to exceed 40 EB. How do you go about managing such growth in a profitable manner when the cost of supporting such traffic will increase exponentially despite the move to 4G?[3] Will the move to LTE offer some respite?

This paper discusses the analysis done by Chetan Sharma Consulting on the growth of mobile data traffic in the US market and how the ecosystem can apply some strategies to manage growth and profits. We built detailed models to estimate the rise of mobile data network traffic and discuss some solutions to handle such growth in this paper.


[1] Source: US Wireless Data Market update Q1 2009, Chetan Sharma Consulting. It was also the first time any nation exceeded the $10B mark in a quarter for mobile data revenues.

[2] For reference, 1 TB = 1012 bytes, 1 PB = 1015 bytes, 1 EB = 1018 bytes, 1 ZB = 1021 bytes, 1 YB = 1024 bytes

[3] For the purposes of this paper, we consider LTE as a 4G technology though it hasn’t been officially designated as such. For more discussion on 4G, please see 4G: The State of the Union, Chetan Sharma, GigaOM, 2009

Events this month July 2, 2009

Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a comment

Will be doing a couple of events in the next few days. First, a keynote at TiE Seattle on 9th on state of affairs of the Mobile Industry and then moderating an excellent panel at MobileBeat in San Francisco on 16th. Details below:

TiE Seattle

Mobile application industry is moving and shaking! Apple has proven that mobile applications can not only be highly monetizable, but that the really good ones can also become a phenomenon. A niche until Apple exploded it less than a year ago, the mobile app market will be worth $25 billion in five years, according to Juniper research.

The predictions state that games will remain as the most downloaded and most revenue-producing applications and multimedia and entertainment apps will contribute to the most value-added-service (i.e., subscriptions, premium events and additional content) revenues.

So, how do you benefit from this demand explosion in the complex mobile ecosystem? In this event, we are bringing together experts who will help you navigate the ecosystem as they focus on and address the following key questions:

Who will benefit from this event?

Whether you are a veteran in the industry, or an entrepreneur looking to secure your feet in this game, or someone who is providing services to the mobile ecosystem, join us for this discussion and be a part of this new evolving mobile world!

Speaker(s)

Keynote Speaker

Chetan Sharma, Founder and President, Chetan Sharma Technology 

Speaker

Shiv K. Bakshi, Principal Analyst and Founder, Mobile Perspectives 

Brendan Benzing, Senior Vice President, New Product Strategy & Marketing, Motricity 

Sajal Sahay, Executive Director, T-mobile 

John SanGiovanni, Co-Founder, Vice President, Product Design, Zumobi 

Dan Shapiro, CEO, Ontela, Inc 

 

MobileBeat 2009

9:30am - 10:15am: Finding a Role in the New World Order. There will be winners and losers in the new world of apps and services. No one wants to be a dinosaur in the age of the mammals, particularly as more and more consumers transition from the older cell phones to smart phones. This panel will address the strategy involving in making the shift toward finding or building an ecosystem that will survive.

Hope to see some of you there.