Global Wireless Data Market Update - 1H 2008 September 28, 2008
Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, BRIC, Carriers, Enterprise Mobility, European Wireless Market, Gaming, IP Strategy, Indian Wireless Market, Japan Wireless Market, Location Based Services, MVNO, Messaging, Microsoft Mobile, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Search, Mobile TV, Mobile Usability, Mobile Users, Mobile Wallet, Music Player, Smart Phones, Speaking Engagements, US Wireless Market, Unified Messaging, Wi-Fi, WiMax, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 1 comment so far
http://www.chetansharma.com/globalmarketupdate1H08.htm
Global Wireless Markets continued to grow rapidly especially in India and China where the carriers are adding over 9M new subscriptions every month. India crossed the 300M subscription mark in Aug while China whizzed past 600M in September. Overall, the global subscriptions penetration edged past 50%. During the 1H 2008, revenues further tilted towards data services. The overall global mobile revenues (including equipment) for the year are likely to reach the 1 Trillion dollar landmark later this year (enough to bailout an economy or two), with approximately $800 billion attributed to service revenues. Data revenues now account for almost 20% of the global service revenues.
For some leading operators, data is now contributing close to 40% of the revenues however increase in data ARPU is not completely offsetting the drop in voice ARPU for most operators. From the true and tested SMS messaging to the new services such as Mobile Advertising, Social Networking, Commerce, Mobile Wallet, and others, different services helped in adding billions to the revenues generated for 1H 2008. Japan remains the envy of the global markets and the nation to study and learn from w.r.t. new services and applications. The US market expanded its lead over Japan in mobile data service revenues for the year and is unlikely to cede ground in the months to come.
Buoyed by the global launch of iPhone, Apple is likely to eclipse the 10M goal in Q308. Its App-Store launch along with Android’s imminent arrival dominated the news. Other manufacturers also introduced challengers to iPhone, most notably, Instinct by Samsung on the Sprint network which has also been quite successful in getting users to engage in data services.
WiMAX vs. LTE debate took over the EV-DO vs. WCDMA chatter and while majority of the industry is consolidating around LTE; open-platform advocates are watching the arrival of WiMAX in the US with great interest. Google, Sprint, Motorola, TWC, Comcast and others put new life into the experiment called Clearwire.
Chetan Sharma Consulting conducted its semiannual study on the global mobile data industry. We studied wireless data trends in over 40 major countries - from developed and mature markets such as Japan, Korea, UK, and Italy to hyper growth markets such as China and India.
This note summarizes the findings from the research with added insights from our work in various global markets.
- The global mobile markets continue to grow at an explosive pace reaching 3.6B subscriptions by 1H08 up 9% from EOY 2007 levels and will likely cross the 4B mark by the end of 2008. Significant growth is coming from India and China with both countries registering on an average 9M net adds per month. India and China combined to add approximately 107M new subscriptions during the first six months of 2008. Overall, the world market is now over the 50% penetration mark.
- US edged past Japan again as the most valuable mobile data market in service revenue with US adding $15.7B vs. $13.6B for Japan in 1H08 mobile data service revenues. China with $7.8B was ranked number 3. US registered the highest growth amongst the top 3 with over 18% increase from EOY 2007 levels followed by China at 9% and Japan at 7%. These top 3 markets account for just under 50% of the mobile global data service revenues.
- NTT DoCoMo continues to dominate the wireless data service revenue rankings with over $6.8B in service data revenues for 1H08; however, Q/Q growth is declining. DoCoMo crossed 84% in 3G penetration and is expected to touch 90% by end of the year.
- DoCoMo was followed by China Mobile, KDDI, Verizon Wireless, AT&T, Sprint Nextel, China Unicom, Softbank, O2 UK, and T-Mobile USA to round up the top 10 operators by wireless data service revenues. It marks the first time, T-Mobile USA enters the top 10 list as it went past SK Telecom. All the top 10 carriers exceeded $1.5B in data revenues for the first half of 2008.
- For the last couple of years, NTT DoCoMo has been the only carrier exceeding $10B in yearly mobile data revenues. In 2008, it is likely to be joined by China Mobile, KDDI, Verizon Wireless, and ATT in the exclusive 10B club.
- Data revenues for the top 10 operators increased 10.3% from EOY 2007 and now account for almost 50% of the global mobile data revenues though their subscriber share is around 30%.
- Most of the major operators around the world have double digit percentage contribution to their overall ARPU from data services. Operators like KDDI, DoCoMo, and Softbank are approaching 40%. 3 UK, O2 UK, Singtel, and 3 Sweden exceeded 30%.
- In March, India edged past the US to become the number two wireless market (by subscriptions) in the world. In last two years alone it has added almost 175M new subscriptions (in comparison China added 169M and the US market added 39M).
- ATT reported the highest increase in data ARPU from 2Q07 with 32% growth. Other notable percentage increases in ARPU were from KDDI, DoCoMo, Softbank Japan, 3 Australia, Vodafone Italy, Rogers, Verizon Wireless, and T-Mobile Austria. The biggest drop in percentage terms were registered by the Indian operators with average data ARPU dropping to $0.65.
- In terms of absolute dollar amount, NTT DoCoMo and 3 UK lead the pack with $22 data ARPU. Operators who reported overall ARPU above $60 were 3 UK, Singtel, Rogers, and 3 Sweden.
- The biggest jump in data revenues was experienced by the US carriers, the top 3 being ATT, Verizon Wireless, and T-Mobile USA respectively. SK Telecom, Sprint and O2 UK experienced declines. (For a complete US Market Update, please see our Q208 research note).
- In 1H 2008, SMS’s vice like grip on data revenues continued to loosen a bit with many carriers seeing an increase in non-SMS data revenues. On an average, Japan and Korea have over 70-75% of their revenue coming from non-SMS data applications, US around 50-60%, and Western Europe around 20-40%.
- NTT DoCoMo regained its position vis-à-vis KDDI w.r.t. mobile data revenues. Their data coordinates stand at ($22, 39.5%) and ($20.3, 37%) respectively (please see slide 10 for reference).
- Most of the operators in developed nations are contemplating future strategies to boost data revenues such that decline in voice revenues is at least compensated for. There are very few operators who have experienced increase in overall ARPUs. Comparing the ARPU for last 2 years, amongst the top operators, only Singtel, Rogers, T-Mobile UK, O2 Germany, O2 UK, Verizon Wireless and ATT experienced increase in both overall and data ARPU.
- NTT DoCoMo has been at the cutting edge of the mobile data evolution by creating new markets and exploring new technologies and social experiments ahead of almost anybody else in the market. We looked at the data revenue growth at NTT DoCoMo since the introduction of i-Mode almost 10 years ago (see slide on page 17). During the last 9 years, overall ARPU has declined 33% though data ARPU increased over 1800% and now accounts for almost 40% of DoCoMo’s service revenues. The voice ARPU has declined almost 60%. Our long history with the Japanese and Korean markets has taught us that while the individual strategies in each market will differ, one should study the trends and technologies in these markets to get a sense of what’s coming.
- The biggest percentage contribution by data ARPU has been consistently registered (since mid 2002) by two Philippines carriers – Smart Communications and Globe Telecom with over 66% (or $3) contribution coming from the data services. Philippines is also one of the most active messaging nations where users average a message/hr round the clock.
- Even though China reported approximately $7.8B in data revenues for 1H08 and the percentage contribution is over 27%, data ARPU is around $2.3. For India, data ARPU continues to stay below $1 for all major carriers with Reliance experiencing a 50c data ARPU during Q208.
- China Mobile with 428M (as of Aug 08) remains the #1 carrier in terms of total number of subscrptions followed by Vodafone at 269M and China Unicom with 171M subscriptions. Telefonica, América Móvil, SingTel, Deutsche Telekom (T-Mobile), and Orange (France Telecom) are the next five largest telecom groups in the world. In terms of individual carriers in a given country, AT&T and Verizon Wireless occupy the #3 and #4 spot respectively ahead of NTT DoCoMo, which is at #5 (Verizon will overtake ATT after its Alltel acquisition goes through later this year). The two Chinese carriers round up the top two positions and are likely to stay perched at their lookout vistas for many years to come.
- China Mobile remains the most valuable telecom operator with over $200B in market cap. It is followed by Vodafone at around $125B. Telecom groups in mature markets are under enormous pressure to either come up with a global expansion strategy or accelerate their existing plans. Carriers in Japan and Korea are the most under duress.
- As far as 3G is concerned, there were over 350M 3G users (69% of them are WCDMA users vs. EV-DO). Both Japan and Korea continue to expand their 3G base with both reporting over 80%+ penetration. 3G has picked-up steam in both western Europe and North America per our forecast in the 2005 cover story article “3G: Hitting the Mass Market” published in the Wireless World Magazine. Western Europe and US are at approx. 30% 3G penetration (Italy being the exception exceeding 40%).
- China and India represent the biggest opportunities for the Infrastructure providers. China postponed its 3G decision again and couldn’t launch a network for the otherwise wildly successful 2008 Olympics. India is also going through its 3G spectrum policy and is likely to resolve some of the contentious issues shortly. Some of the biggest infrastructure contracts will come from these two countries that are looking to expand coverage into rural areas.
- Carriers with nationwide 3G networks and good distribution of handsets are seeing strong uptick in data ARPU. The Japanese and Korean carriers along with operator 3, Verizon, Sprint Nextel are all seeing benefits of rolling out their 3G service. Deployment of 3.5G technologies such as HSDPA and EV-DO Rev A (and B) is also gaining momentum. Networks are getting deployed and market is being seeded with some of the early handsets. For 4G, there is a strong momentum behind LTE, proponents of WiMAX are pushing the technology as a 4G candidate, and though it is starting to lose its time advantage, all eyes are on the imminent Clearwire launch.
- In terms of applications, messaging accounts for the lion-share of data revenues. However, other services such as Mobile Music, Mobile TV and video streaming, Voice navigation, PNDs, Mobile Games, IMS, LBS, Mobile advertising, and others have also captured industry’s imagination. Alternate devices with wholesale cellular agreements are also flooding the market. In Japan, Mobile Commerce is expected to do much better than the other hot category - Mobile Advertising. Though not much talked about, enterprise applications are also being adopted widely esp. in North America as more workers become mobile and corporations seek efficiencies in their operations and supply-chain.
- 1H 2008 saw the demise of the last standing next-generation MVNO in the US market - Helio, which got sold to Virgin Mobile at bargain basement prices. In Europe, Blyk continues to make good progress with its unique mobile advertising-based model. Asian market is also opening up for MVNOs.
- Nokia eclipsed 100M/quarter unit sale in both the quarters thus far. It has sold over 237M handsets in 2008, more than the next three handset manufacturers combined. Nokia’s global market share edged past 41%. Samsung at 15%, Motorola with 9.5%, LG with 9.3% and Sony Ericsson with 8% rounded out the top five. For the year, the industry looks to again eclipse the 1 billion handset mark for 2008.
- While the talk of “Open Access” and “Open Platform” consumed much of North America, it barely registered a decibel elsewhere. Several significant events including 700 MHz Auction, Android, and Verizon’s “Open Network” initiative elevated the consternation in the ecosystem. Apple launched its 3G iPhone while Android’s first device is slated to see the light of day next month courtesy of T-Mobile USA.
- Apple launched its App-Store with iPhone 3G which has been quite successful though there is significant clutter to muddle through. The company is likely to announce soon that it eclipsed its 10M goal in Q308, a full quarter earlier than the stated target. These days, any new device that gets launched in the market is looked through the prism of iPhone.
- In the last 10 years, the growth patterns in the mobile industry have completely reversed. In 1998, the developed world accounted for 76% of the subscriber base, in 2008; the percentages have flipped with developing world now accounting for 76% of the subscriber base and are likely to increase to 85% by 2018 (see slide 8). For a more detailed analysis, check out our research paper sponsored by The United Nations Foundation on “Mobile Services Evolution: 2008-2018.” It was presented at The Rockefeller Foundation Healthcare summit in Bellagio, Italy in July 08. (Note: The dichotomy between developed and developing nations is a very simplified concept that has been around for about 50 years. It is clear that a transformation in the distribution of wealth worldwide will change the picture in the next 10 years. Countries that are considered developing in today’s definition will become economic superpowers in 10 years and more dominant than some of the developed nations, even if they have not caught up then with some in terms of GDP per capita. However, for purely the purposes of comparison and illustration, we are using the existing definitions to discuss the shift in the mobile ecosystem).
- Several operators reported Mobile Advertising as their key strategic focus for the coming quarters, esp. China Mobile and Vodafone. Sensing the opportunity to seek new sources of revenue stream, Nokia and Google are getting active in the space as well. 2007 saw tremendous M&A activity in both the online and mobile advertising space and while it slowed down during 2008, it is likely to pick-up again in 2009 as consolidation looms.
- Wireless Broadband continues to be a significant growth driver for the industry. We partnered with our good friend Vern Fotheringham - a true industry entrepreneur and who has been behind many of the industry firsts, to write an exhaustive treatment of the subject in our upcoming book - Wireless Broadband: Conflict and Convergence being jointly published by IEEE Press and John Wiley (see below). Details forthcoming.
Your feedback is always welcome.
Thanks.
Chetan Sharma
Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this note are our clients.
TiE Video is up
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The TiE panel (Convergence of mobile applications and social networking in Asia) I moderated last week is online now. Enjoy!
Introducing "Wireless Broadband: Conflict and Convergence"
Posted by chetan in : AORTA, Mobile Applications, Mobile Ecosystem, Speaking Engagements, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 3 comments
Curious eyes might have noticed the tab above “Wireless Broadband Book” or seen the recently introduced book cover on the right or might have come across this Amazon listing. Perhaps, time to provide some more info on the project.
2007 was a unique year for me as far as book publishing is concerned. Was fortunate to work with some great co-authors on 3 different projects. Normally, taking on one book project is a big task in of itself, 3 in a year will generally exhaust you, especially when you are also working full-time. I was blessed with great friends and co-authors that made it easier.
The first one, Mobile Advertising book was an industry first - the first book to take an in-depth look into the business of mobile advertising. We spent quite a bit of time researching and formulating our thoughts on the subject and it was an intense 6 months of writing. My long-time friend and colleague - Joe Herzog (along with Victor Melfi) was instrumental in producing a great final product. We have been pleased with the industry reception. The book is being used internally for sales training and strategy formulation in many companies worldwide. I have been also helping many companies in the ecosystem with their strategy and product plans for mobile advertising. The segment itself has been making tremendous progress every month, more on that a bit later in the year.
The second project involved expanding on my work for SAP for a peer-reviewed book project. I worked with my colleague Sami Muneer on the same. The chapter titled “Enterprise mobile product strategy using scenario planning” was published as a part of Enterprise Mobility: Applications, Technology, and Strategies (published by IOS Press of Amsterdam).
This brings us to the third and final book of the year - Wireless Broadband - Conflict and Convergence with Vern Fotheringham - a pioneer in the wireless industry.
I have known Vern Fotheringham for many years, we met when I was just starting out my consulting practice 7 years ago. He is an “idea a minute” guy who is a true entrepreneur at heart, has traveled the globe (he has enough frequent flier miles to go to Mars and come back), and is always ahead of the curve. In fact, he has been credited with many industry firsts. Last year, we got together to work on a book on Wireless Broadband, to look at its intricacies, the politics, the opportunity and risks of the industry. There was no better person to write this book with than Vern. We then found an ideal publishing partner - IEEE Press/John Wiley and a few months later here we are.
The book is being published as part of the prestigious IEEE Series on Digital and Mobile Communications.The book is almost done, we finished off all the edits and it is going to the printers any minute with the publication date of Oct 08.
Over the course of next few days, we will introduce the book with some sample chapters, TOC, foreword etc.
We have gotten pretty good reviews for the book thus far:
“In this book, Vern Fotheringham and Chetan Sharma have done a remarkable job in laying out every aspect of this critically important and demanding topic. Read it from cover to cover, enjoy it all, and be satisfied in knowing what every modern planner, manager, and educated citizen should know about the world’s future.”
- By Mark Anderson CEO, Strategic News Service and SNS Project Inkwell
“This is as comprehensive a book on Wireless Broadband as I have seen. The authors of this book address the most important issues facing the players in the wireless ecosystem in great detail and provide a very thoughtful analysis.”
- Steve Elfman, President, Sprint Nextel
“Vern and Chetan have written an insightful book that takes a refreshing multi-dimensional approach to the wireless broadband industry”
- Dr. Hyun Oh Yoo, former CEO, SK Communications, CEO SKT Holdings America Inc.
Here is Vern’s full bio.
Vern Fotheringham, Managing Director, IP Broadband, Ltd.
Mr. Fotheringham is recognized internationally as an industry leader and successful entrepreneur in the wireless and broadband communications industry. Throughout his career he has been a catalyst for innovation and change in the competitive telecommunications field through direct entrepreneurial activities, as an advisor or influencer on many successful projects, a public policy and regulatory advocate for new telecommunications service rules and standards, and as an inventor and creator of new and innovative services.
Presently, he is the Managing Director of IP Broadband Ltd. developing converged IP services targeted on the Asian and North American markets for next generation services. He also provides strategic marketing and technical consulting counsel to a number of major telecommunications service providers, including Nextlink Wireless, Inc. where he is the Acting CTO. Mr. Fotheringham is also a managing member of Community Broadband, LLC a consulting firm specializing in advising municipalities on IT and telecommunications matters. Previously he was the President and CEO of ADAPTIX, Inc. a world leader in the development of next generation broadband wireless system technology. ADAPTIX, Inc. pioneered and secured patent protection for the core technology of what is now the IEEE 802.16(e) standard for OFDMA high-speed, scalable, interference immune, metropolitan area IP broadband radio systems.
Highlights of his prior career activities include: direct participation with the development and international expansion of the cellular telephone industry, working on projects in the US, Canada, Mexico, Germany, Sweden, Hong Kong, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela and Bangladesh; the creation and development of the mobile satellite industry (Omninet/OmniTRACS, AMSC & NORCOM); earning a US nationwide license for air-to-ground communications services (Claircom / AT&T Wireless); winning the first GSM license in Hong Kong (SmarTone); pioneering in the Digital Audio Radio Service (founder and Chairman of Digital Satellite Broadcasting Corporation); and, founding the millimetric microwave industry with the creation of both Advanced Radio Telecom Corporation (ART) as a service provider (Chairman and CEO), and WavTrace a pioneering point-to-multipoint broadband wireless equipment manufacturer (now owned by Harris Corporation). ART was a NASDAQ listed CLEC and enhanced service provider that held broadband radio spectrum licenses in 207 major U.S. markets, plus five nationwide European licenses. His efforts also resulted in the adoption of the US standards for millimetric microwave regulations and licensing in Japan. Vern also pioneered Internet radio and web based distribution of world music in partnership with Quincy Jones at QRadio. He was also a pioneer in the field of broadband DSL IP access and VoIP hosted services with Bazillion, which was the first nationwide, toll quality VoIP service provider. His early career included positions in public safety with the City of Huntington Beach, California, initially as a Marine Safety Officer, then as a Firefighter and Paramedic.
Vern has also pursued a lifelong interest in specialty automobile manufacturing and motorsports through the creation of Vemac Cars Ltd. a Japanese, UK and US international partnership (see: www.vemaccars.com) that was founded to develop green high performance vehicles. Vemac cars compete in the Super GT Championship racing series in Japan with noteworthy success against the major manufacturers. He was also a pioneer of the single make racing series concept as the founder of the Formula Mazda (1981 to present) series and the Sports Toyota Championship which featured as a support race in the early years of the American LeMans series.
Vern is an IEEE member, and received his BA from California State University Fullerton. He also pursued graduate studies at the Claremont Graduate School. He presently serves as a director for a number of early stage ventures.
GigaOM Mobilize Videos September 24, 2008
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentHere are the videos of the two panels I moderated at GigaOM’s inaugural Mobilize last week. I was also the advisor to the conference.
The Carrier Panel: Strategies to keep Mobile data growing
Venetia Espinoza, Director, Mobile Applications and Partner Programs, T-Mobile
Russ McGuire, Vice President, Corporate Strategy, Sprint
Frank Meehan, General Manager of 3G Handsets and Products, Hutchinson Whampoa/3
Michael Woodward, Vice President, Mobility Business Marketing, AT&T
Satya Mallya, Director, Orange
Signals from the near future: The Mobile Guru Panel
Marc Davis, Chief Scientist of Yahoo! Connected Life and Director of ESP, Yahoo!
Fred Kitson, Corporate Vice President, Applied Research and Technology Center, Motorola, Inc.
Russ McGuire, Vice President, Corporate Strategy, Sprint
John SanGiovanni, Co-Founder, Vice President, Product Design, Zumobi
Thanks to GigaOM for making these videos available. You can also check out videos from all the panels here.
Android - First Impressions September 23, 2008
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentSome random thoughts
- Definition of Openness is in the eye of the beholder
- Rev share to Google is unclear, Is TMO giving some piece of the revenue to Google? Does all the advertising revenue on mobile web and apps go to Google? Can the mobile browser be replaced? Can the search provider be replaced?
- Overall, Google, HTC, and TMO did a good job getting this out as fast as they did
- A new price point for the smartphones has been set - $179. We can only go down from here
- G1 is no iPhone though it looks like a pretty good smartphone. The visual appeal is just not there
- HTC moves in with the big boys
- Where is waldo (microsoft)? Microsoft’s mobile strategy (esp. consumer) is seriously in trouble
- Running simultaneous application a great plus
- 3G data caps - what are you, an ISP? Industry is walking into a rat-hole. Regulators will chime in soon
- TMO better get its network expanding. EDGE is no fun for good experience
- What? No Exchange support?
- How will this implementation vary from the second one coming from a different OEM? how does that impact development cycles?
- VoIPo3G, you must be kidding?
- SIM Lock (rumor has it .. only for 3 months) can i still buy from TMO appstore?
Is windows mobile going to suffer the fate of Palm?
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , 2 commentsThere are reports that Windows Mobile 7 has been delayed by year. With all the excitement around iPhone, Blackberry, and Android (and Nokia to some extent), Microsoft is again missing the boat and dangerously close to being Palmized out of the market. As we noted earlier, the boeingification of Microsoft has really harmed the company’s ability to bring out competitive solution the market.
TMO launches Android
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Android Arrives. More detailed analysis as i recover from jet-lag.
TiE SV Event: Convergence of Social Networking and Mobile Applications in Asia September 21, 2008
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , 2 commentsFrom future and carrier panel at GigaOM’s Mobilize last week, we focus our attention to Asia this coming monday (Sept 22nd) at the TiE Silicon Valley event. Details here.
Social networking and mobile applications have undoubtedly taken hold of how we consume and share data and interact with the world around us. The convergence of these segments has also created a new field of opportunities for entrepreneurs and investors. Asia, in particular, has led the world in adoption and activity of social networks and mobile applications. Come join us in a discussion about how the different Asia markets have led the world in consumer adoption. We will discuss investment themes, business models, and case studies and how they could apply to U.S. ventures.
Moderator
Chetan Sharma, Founder and President, Chetan Sharma Technology
Panelist
Ramneek Bhasin, CEO, Mobio Networks
Mike Ding, Investment Director, BlueRun Ventures
Sasha Mirchandani, Senior Investment Director, BlueRun Ventures
Ray Taylor, President and CEO, Mobopia
Program Details
09/22/2008 06:00 PM Registration, Dinner & Networking
09/22/2008 07:00 PM Panel Discussion - Moderated by Chetan Sharma,Technology and Strategy Consulting
09/22/2008 08:00 PM Q & A
09/22/2008 08:30 PM Networking
09/22/2008 09:00 PM Close
Hope to see some of you there.
GigaOM’s Mobilize September 19, 2008
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , 2 comments
with Om at the end of a long day.
Thoroughly enjoyed GigaOM’s Mobilize conference yesterday. Packed with great content back-to-back. Had good fun moderating two really good panels. you can read the commentary here .. video will be available soon
Signals from the near future: The mobile Guru Panel
The Carrier Panel: Strategies to keep mobile data growing
Moconews coverage of the carrier panel here
It is hard to discuss a lot in 40 minutes but i thought we hit a number of key areas. will probably have some more later.
House of Cards September 15, 2008
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentIt is pretty stunning to see the icons of the global financial industry fall down like lifeless flies. Clearly, this mess is far from over. See Mark Anderson’s commentary. He has been pointing what is unfolding in front of us for a long time.
Carnival of the Mobilists #141
Posted by chetan in : AORTA, CTIA, Carriers, European Wireless Market, Location Based Services, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, US Wireless Market, Worldwide Wireless Market , 2 commentsWelcome back to Always On Real-Time Access or AORTA. Last week, folks in the industry were busy with several events including CTIA, TC50, DEMO, Mobile Web Strategies, and many others. Here are the gems from the week.
Anthony Hand at Hand Interactive educates us about the screen capture techniques on various phones. Quite Handy.
James Cooper at MJelly opines on “Why South Africa is leading the mobile Internet revolution” Good insights, data, and case studies.
Tsahi Levent-Levi at VoIP Survivor posts an interview with a TD-SCDMA chipset vendor and their launch in the Chinese market during the Olympic games.
Martin Sauter at Mobile Society and author of Communications Systems for Mobile questions the use of Narrow band codecs for SIP to SIP calls.
John Boxall at Handi Mobility writes about Python S60 Bluetooth Console on Mac OSX using pictures.
Igor Faletski at Mobscure discusses some guidelines for supplying context indicators in mobile applications.
Ram Krishnan at Mobile Broadband Blog discusses mobile broadband pricing.
Carlos Enrique Ortiz points that “one click” interactions are necessary for barcodes and NFC to take off. He also has pictures from MobileWidget Camp in Austin.
Andrew Grill of London Calling talks about the Blogloc service that enables users to post their location.
My contribution to the carnival - CTIA IT and Entertainment 2008 roundup.
Finally, my vote for the best post of the week goes to Ajit Jaokar at Open Gardens who discusses cloud computing in “Cloud or Fog? The battle for supremacy in the cloud is not a dogfight but will be fought in the trenches.“
Next week, hop over to Next Generation Mobile Content hosted by Ofir Leitner for #142 COM. Until then, happy reading.
CTIA Wireless IT and Entertainment 2008 Roundup September 12, 2008
Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, ARPU, BRIC, CTIA, Carriers, Enterprise Mobility, European Wireless Market, Indian Wireless Market, Japan Wireless Market, Location Based Services, M&A, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Search, Mobile Usability, Privacy, US Wireless Market, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 1 comment so farCTIA Wireless IT and Entertainment 2008 Roundup
http://www.chetansharma.com/ctiawirelessit2008.htm
San Francisco hosted the CTIA Wireless IT and Entertainment 2008 show earlier this week. In addition, there were some pre-show events like Billboard’s Mobile Entertainment Live and Mobile Web Strategies. This note summarizes our impressions from the week.
First, Let’s do the numbers CTIA released its mid-year survey results. Bob Roche and John-Paul Edgette at CTIA do a great service to the industry by compiling 6-month of useful data and making it available at each CTIA. In Summary - 262.7M subs, $14.78B in data revenues accounting for 20.3% service revenues, 75B TXT messages/month. We released our US Mobile Data Update for Q208 last month, Global Update coming later this month.
Overall Impression – This year’s show was one of the dullest in recent memory, devoid of any buzz, energy, or announcements. Maybe it was due to the 50,000 other events happening the same week (many in San Francisco). Or maybe, Bernanke’s congressional testimony is playing out in the wireless industry. Or maybe it is just conference-fatigue.
My week started early as I had the honor of giving a keynote address to a group of influential executives at major international operators and agencies worldwide at a well-organized private event. The topic was “US Mobile Advertising: Today and Tomorrow.” We delved into what’s working and what’s not and what will it take to get the industry to the next level, which players are likely to succeed and why?
Next day, I split my time between Mobile Entertainment Live organized by BillBoard and Mobile Web Strategies chaired by our friend Ajit Jaokar. While most of it was rehash of previous events, presentation by Jouko Ahvenainen of Xtract was probably the standout for me where he talked in detail about the importance of “analytics” and “intelligence” in advertising and social media. One of the interesting announcements/discussion was from Nokia regarding “Comes w/ Music” to be launched in UK next month - music subscription is bundled with the device as long as the device is from Nokia. Reliance Entertainment also announced its aggressive push into the US market.
Trip down the memory lane US Wireless Industry is celebrating 25 years of existence. Steve Largent invited Craig McCaw and John Stanton to reminiscence about the good old days - $4000 phones, hundreds of dollars of monthly bills, no roaming, 30 min talk time, obligatory 100 lbs bricksters. Craig emphasized on innovation while Stanton accurately put his finger on the big picture – US operators aren’t thinking like global companies or the media companies and can’t succeed in the new economy over the long haul. Spot On, John.
My first job was with a company that wrote the billing software for McCaw Communications in the early nineties (at that time, I was writing code for fraud prevention using RF fingerprinting for GTE, Ameritech, Bell Atlantic, Nynex, Airtouch, and the likes .. those were the days)
Open is in the Air With each CTIA over the last 18 months, carriers’ embrace of “Openness” is getting tighter and more nuanced. It is amazing how competitive threat can help disrupt the status-quo. While the keynote session sounded very scripted, each of the 3 CEOs from T-Mobile (Dotson), Sprint Nextel (Hesse), and Verizon (Lowell) are putting in place their “Open” Strategy (the current no. 1 operator was MIA). T-Mobile is launching an Apple-like App-Store next week with 50-50% rev-share which goes up to 30-70% in favor of the app developer but advertising is allowed (unlike iPhone Appstore). Streaming is also not allowed. Tricia at Moconews has more details. The balance between open network, customer care cost, and application performance can be a tricky one and everyone is tiptoeing the boiling waters carefully.
My favorite quips:
Hesse – “We have opened the network, Knock yourself out”
Lowell – “Our definition of open is irrelevant, it is what the customer wants”
Dotson – “Walled garden is a thing of the past”
It should be noted that two of the biggest success stories in the industry - iPhone and Blackberry are closed systems. Everything boils down to user-experience and value. We shouldn’t lose sight of that in the Open debate.
Yahoo’s oneConnect Marco Boerries, EVP, Yahoo! (read the piece he wrote for our Mobile Advertising book here) gave a keynote second CTIA running. These guys aren’t distracted by the Microsoft acquisition drama and remain the bright spot in an otherwise flailing organization. Over the past few months, they keep on refining their distribution and monetization strategy but they do need to attract droves of developers to make the initiative successful. Marco announced the launch of “Blueprint” – a framework for building mobile Internet apps and services. The trick is of course to attract developers. AOL is also pursuing a similar strategy.
Mobile Advertising There was a lot of discussion around mobile advertising each day with some new players emerging. Companies like Hipcricket (and many many others) are making real progress but I get a sense of “being stuck” from some of the players. Maybe, it is a function of the economy, or perhaps – fragmentation, lack of education, metrics, is keeping the industry from opening up.
CTIA released a whitepaper on 2D bar code scanning. Good to see some progress but the big question is – who takes the initiative to spend marketing dollars to educate the consumers and to make 2D bar codes pervasive in the US.
Carriers are getting more active in pursuing their mobile advertising strategies but I still see some fundamental missteps. Keep an eye on some of the work we will release later in the year to help guide the discussion, hopefully, in the right direction.
Mobile Social Networking Lot of discussion around mobile social networking (infact too much at times, even the mobile email player Visto considers itself a social networking company now), mobile only social networking, monetization challenges and opportunities. Most of the players are just aggressively focused on building an audience as quickly as possible. The monetization strategies include advertising, value added services, app store. Verizon and ATT announced their social networking strategies (built on the back of Intercasting’s platform) which essentially focus on social networking aggregation. This keeps them pretty safe and relevant. Current monetization model is that of subscription and maybe advertising down the road. For mobile only players the models varies from advertising heavy (Mocospace) to VAS heavy (mig33).
M2M The percentage of M2M companies in the mix increased compared to last time. For the first time I saw, carrier booths in M2M pavilion which was quite interesting. They clearly see this is a growing segment.
Smartphone Mania Devices like iPhone and Instinct are accounting for a disproportionately high share of the mobile download business now. And if data services is the only growth engine, why worry about launching sub-ARM9 devices, the economics is pointing towards cheaper smartphones on a fast network, it doesn’t make sense to port to 50 other devices when 80% of the revenue will come from a small subset of the devices.
For those of you attended the show, hopefully, it warmed you up for a really great mobile event being organized by GigaOM – Mobilize. Some terrific set of speakers and panels. I will be moderating two excellent panels (details below).
Your feedback is always welcome.
Thanks.
Chetan Sharma
Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this note are our clients.
CTIA in pictures
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What would you ask? September 7, 2008
Posted by chetan in : Speaking Engagements , 2 commentsOver the course of next 2 weeks, I will have the opportunity to moderate three excellent panels. Details below.
My request to you is - what would you ask if you were moderating the panel or sitting down for lunch with them 1-on-1? Please leave a comment or send me a note and i will try my best to get an answer for you. Thanks.
The first two are at GigaOM’s Mobilize (Sept 18th) which is shaping up to be a truly remarkable event with both the depth and breadth of content, people, and discussion.
Panel - Signals from the Near Future: The Mobile Guru Panel
Everybody wants a glimpse into the near future, especially the entrepreneurs in our audience. To elicit useful insights we are bringing together some of the world’s foremost mobile gurus to “chew the fat.” In a session led by Chetan Sharma, we will ask them what trends they find interesting and what they foresee coming in the near future, by looking at patterns in the present.
Marc Davis, Chief Scientist of Yahoo! Connected Life and Director of ESP, Yahoo!
Fred Kitson, Corporate Vice President, Applied Research and Technology Center, Motorola, Inc.
Russ McGuire, Vice President, Corporate Strategy, Sprint
John SanGiovanni, Co-Founder, Vice President, Product Design, Zumobi
Panel - The Carrier Panel: Strategies To Keep Mobile Data Growing
Stagnant subscriber figures. Low churn rates. There is only so much talking that a person can do in the day. So profits from voice are at a stasis. The new frontier for profits and opportunity is through growing mobile data. But it needs to be nurtured and there has to be a plan to enable the entrepreneurs to exploit it. The panel will try to gain insights into what the carriers will do to make the mobile data explosion happen.
Venetia Espinoza, Director, Mobile Applications and Partner Programs, T-Mobile
Russ McGuire, Vice President, Corporate Strategy, Sprint
Frank Meehan, General Manager of 3G Handsets and Products, Hutchinson Whampoa/3
Michael Woodward, Vice President, Mobility Business Marketing, AT&T
The 3rd and final panel of the month is at TiE Silicon Valley on the 22nd
Panel - Convergence of social networking and mobile applications in Asia
Social networking and mobile applications have undoubtedly taken hold of how we consume and share data and interact with the world around us. The convergence of these segments has also created a new field of opportunities for entrepreneurs and investors. Asia, in particular, has led the world in adoption and activity of social networks and mobile applications. Come join us in a discussion about how the different Asia markets have led the world in consumer adoption. We will discuss investment themes, business models, and case studies and how they could apply to U.S. ventures.
Ramneek Bhasin, CEO, Mobio Networks
Mike Ding , Investment Director, BlueRun Ventures
Sasha Mirchandani, Senior Investment Director, BlueRun Ventures
Ray Taylor, President and CEO, Mobopia
Happy Birthday Google
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Google clearly has been the tech company of the last decade out maneuvering Microsoft at its own game. They are ruthlessly good at what they do best - search. While ventures into other territories have been less than successful and will be that way for many more categories, they do approach things with a strategic bent of mind - out thinking and flustering the competition. I have been following their wireless moves closely and while most of them have been quite predictable, they have changed the ecosystem dynamics in the last 12 months.
So, congrats Google, and wish you the best for another solid 10.
Microsoft’s New Ad campaign September 5, 2008
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(Source: NYTimes)
I don’t know what the future ads look like but it seems that MS needs to revamp their Marketing team/Advertising Agency in a hurry. Fixing Vista will help too.
TiE Event in Bay Area
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentWell, this is a bay area month for me. Will be going back again the 4th week of Sept to moderate a panel on Social Networking and Mobile Applications. Details here
Event Host
Seshan Rammohan and Cheryl Cheng(BlueRun Ventures)
Moderator
Chetan Sharma, Founder and President, Chetan Sharma Technology
Panelist
Ramneek Bhasin, CEO, Mobio Networks
Mike Ding, Investment Director, BlueRun Ventures
Sasha Mirchandani, Senior Investment Director, BlueRun Ventures
Ray Taylor, President and CEO, Mobopia
In SF next week September 4, 2008
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a commentWell, CTIA is around the corner. Heading to San Francisco on Monday. Will be giving a dinner keynote at Mobile Search Experts Group Summit on monday. The event will bring ecosystem participants from around the world including carriers and agencies so really looking forward to it. My presentation is titled “Mobile Advertising: Today and Tomorrow.” I will look into the existing state of affairs and where things are headed. Then will be busy absorbing the festivities of CTIA and related events in the following days.
Look out for our CTIA report by end of next week.
The following week, after a quick trip to San Diego, back in SF to attend and moderate two terrific panels at GigaOM conference - Mobilize on the 18th. More on that later.
3G Numbers
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , 2 commentsComscore released its latest 3G numbers for US and some WE countries
Percent of Subscribers with 3G Devices
3-Month Average Ending June 2008 and June 2007< ?xml:namespace prefix = o />
Source: comScore MobiLens
Point
Change
Penetration Penetration June 07
June 2007 June 2008 vs June 08
Germany 15.1% 23.9% 8.1
Spain 22.5% 37.2% 14.7
France 12.6% 17.1% 4.5
Italy 32.1% 38.3% 6.2
United Kingdom 19.9% 27.6% 7.7
European Total (5 countries)20.3% 28.3% 8.0
United States 16.7% 28.4% 11.7
3-Month Average Ending June 2008 and June 2007
All Mobile Subscribers 13+
Source: comScore MobiLens
Subscribers Subscribers Growth
June 2007 June 2008 Y/Y
Germany 7,021 11,732 67.1%
Spain 7,207 12,640 75.4%
France 5,616 7,958 41.7%
Italy 14,462 18,008 24.5%
United Kingdom 8,964 13,100 46.1%
European Total (5 countries) 43,270 63,437 46.6%
United States 35,651 64,207 80.1%
I think the numbers might be slightly off than actuals. At the end of last quarter, US was over 30% with 3G and it has been going toe-to-toe with WE (except Italy) in 3G penetration for a number of quarters, but useful numbers for reference anyway.
Google Chrome is out September 2, 2008
Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , 1 comment so far
can be downloaded at www.google.com/chrome
First impression is that it is light weight and blazing fast .. if it holds up, they have got a convert ..
