Always On Real-Time Access

MacWorld update January 15, 2008

Posted by chetan in : US Wireless Market , add a comment

King Jobs announced that iPhone sales reached 4M in the first 90 days, means around 2.5M in the last quarter, reaching almost 20% of the market share. Probably the Fastest ramp-up of any consumer electronics device known to mankind.

There were some minor details on the upcoming SDK.

Live Coverage at Engadget.

Chinese are coming

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I have been saying this for sometime that Chinese OEM will start making a significant impact on the mobile infrastructure market and out muscle some of the traditional players based on cost and time to market. According to EJL Wireless Research, Huawei Technologies edged out the rest in orders for telecom infrastructure in 2007.

“Huawei edged out Ericsson and Nokia Siemens Networks with 34 percent of total contract awards during the quarter ending 31 December 2007.
“Alcatel-Lucent, which led total contract wins for the first three quarters of the year, dropped to fourth during the quarter.”

Huawei took approximately half of the market for more advanced WCDMA and HSPA base stations, almost twice the share of closest competitor Ericsson, according to EJL’s data.

A total of 53 significant mobile base station contracts were signed worldwide during the fourth quarter. Unlike the previous quarter, no single contract exceeded US$1 billion in value.

“The GSM market shifted in favour of WCDMA/HSPA and EVDO technologies in the quarter with the split between 2G and 3G technologies at 26 per cent and 74 per cent respectively,” said Lum.

Don’t know why Chinese govt. is too hung up on TD-SCDMA, esp. when they can’t seem to make it work even for the Beijing Olympics.

Get ready for Steve Jobs January 14, 2008

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Apple and the Macomania is getting ready for tomorrow’s keynote address by King Jobs. There are some rumors of WiMAX notebooks. Don’t know why one would do that at this stage of the game. He might just announce what is already known or expected like 3G iPhone, probably give some insights into the Christmas iPhone bonanza, upgrades etc.

ABI Research: Mobile Marketing to hit $24B by 2013

Posted by chetan in : Mobile Advertising , add a comment

Per their release

Mobile marketing, which was born in countries such as Japan and South Korea, has taken off in Western Europe and is beginning to grow in North America. As consumers move to flat-rate data plans and adopt mobile messaging, and as new platforms for advertising-supported mobile search, video and gaming content services arrive, mobile marketing is expected to grow to over $24 billion worldwide in 2013, jumping from just $1.8 billion in 2007.

The Operators vs. the Media Brands

Posted by chetan in : European Wireless Market, Indian Wireless Market, Japan Wireless Market, Mobile Ecosystem, US Wireless Market, Worldwide Wireless Market , add a comment

I wrote a guest column for GigaOM - The Operators vs. the Media Brands.

Mobile Advertising Book Update January 11, 2008

Posted by chetan in : Mobile Advertising, Speaking Engagements , add a comment

Well, reviewed the final proofs of the book and sent the final changes in. Will be waiting for the final product now. It is slated to be released last week of Feb. I will be talking about some lessons from the research next week in Vancouver at the Pacific Northwest Wireless Summit which is turning out to be a pretty good event. If you are going to be there, would love to meet.

We are also trying to see if we can arrange a couple of book launch events in Seattle and Bay Area. If you know of someone who can lend us space for an evening, please let me know.

Have a good weekend.

iPhone - the inside story

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Pretty good story in current issue of Wired around how iPhone came to being, must read for industry junkies

Microsoft acquires FAST January 8, 2008

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Brilliant acquisition. I was wondering when this will happen and how Google didn’t make the move last year. This move solidifies Microsoft in the enterprise search space and will blunt Google’s effort to go corporate. Consumer is a whole different story.

First Carnival of the year January 7, 2008

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is up at Mobile Point View by Paul Ruppert. As always, great reads.

Enjoy. Thanks Paul.

Billg’s final CES address

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is at http://www.microsoft.com/ces. Am sure, he will be back.

CES Begins

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The conference grand-slam for the year kicks in tomorrow with CES. I will watching it from the comfort of my office. Looks like many big announcements are lined up for the week.

Om recovering from heart attack January 3, 2008

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Shocked to learn that Om Malik (GigaOM) suffered a heart attack last week. Glad that he survived it. Wish you a speedy recovery Om.

I finally had a chance to meet him last month when I was down at Stanford for the Indian MVAS event.

Mobile Industry Predictions - 2008 January 1, 2008

Posted by chetan in : 3G, 4G, AORTA, ARPU, BRIC, Carriers, European Wireless Market, Indian Wireless Market, Intellectual Property, Japan Wireless Market, Location Based Services, M&A, MVNO, Mergers and Acquisitions, Messaging, Microsoft Mobile, Middleware, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Applications, Mobile Content, Mobile Ecosystem, Mobile Entertainment, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Search, Mobile TV, Mobile Usability, Privacy, Smart Phones, Speech Recognition, US Wireless Market, Unified Messaging, Wi-Fi, WiMax, Wireless Value Chain, Worldwide Wireless Market , 9 comments

I never think of future, it comes soon enough � Albert Einstein

First things first. Wish you a very happy and successful 2008.

Before we look at what�s to come, let�s do a quick wrap-up of the year that was.

2007 will clearly be remembered as �the year of iPhone.� While there were several other �events/trends of interest� through-out the year, nothing captured the imagination of the world like the iPhone. It was significant for another big reason � it had a profound impact on the business model and ecosystem dynamics. Q4 2007 was also significant for the deafening roar that resonated around �Openness�.

Steve Ballmer exclaimed mobile to be the next battleground while Eric Schmidt pondered why mobile phones are not free (subsidized by Google ads of course).

Google played its chess game effectively and though it is unlikely to play to win the 700 MHz auction or even if they do win would be able to do anything substantive in the short-term, they did, however, with Android and spectrum gambit, force some of the regulation-wary operators to take a stance on openness. Nokia is putting together a brilliant services strategy that looks to connect directly to the consumer. Competition and coopitition will have a different meaning going forward.

Things were looking positive for WiMAX until the end of the year when Clearwire was left standing on its own. It will look towards Google, Sprint, Motorola, and others to rescue its fate.

Mobile Advertising was hailed as a great savior of mobile content and mobile revenues in general. Blyk even launched an advertising-based MVNO. We made significant headway in energizing the sub segment but the tough problems of privacy, education, control, fragmentation, and user experience remain. LBS picked up steam and mobility started to get into the alternate consumer device universe.

In terms of actual dollars, mobile data market continued its steady growth with substantial shifts in revenue towards non-SMS data applications and services. Several operators are doing $2B/quarter+ in data revenues. Several subscription milestones throughout the year: 3B worldwide, 500M China, 250M US, 225M India. 3G continued to inch towards mass-market in western markets (20-25% penetration) while in Korea and Japan, it was getting hard to find people without 3G (70%+ penetration).

Among other events of significance: Cincinnati Bell and T-Mobile launched UMA devices, Motorola lost its Mojo, Amp�D and Disney Mobile shut down, MediaFLO launched, mCommerce initiatives took hold, China continued to delay 3G, WM got updated, Yahoo cemented some impressive operator deals as GYM got more active in mobile, UMPC fizzled, Mobile Web 2.0 got into the industry physce, LTE got embraced worldwide, M&A galored, IP scuffles continued, Muni projects went into coma, and DRM-adorned content became a thing of the past.

2008 will be a pretty eventful year from several perspectives: business models, user experience and expectations, ecosystem posturing, disruption, and friction. How are things going to shape up? What will be hot and what will fade into oblivion? How will competition shape up the new sub-segments? We put some of the questions to our colleagues in the industry. This survey was a bit different in the sense that the movers and shakers (and folks from the companies discussed here) and industry insiders participated. We were able to glean some valuable insights from their choices and comments. Participants (n=196) were folks from across the mobile value chain and from around the world.

Many thanks to everyone who participated.

(click for larger image)

Three names were drawn for a copy of our upcoming book �Mobile Advertising� (co-authored with Joe Herzog and Victor Melfi, John Wiley & Sons, 432 pages, Feb 2008).

The winners are:

David Cushman, Director, Emap
Larry Shapiro, VP, Disney, and
Keith Kostuch, SVP, Alltel

Congrats and Thank you.

Now onto the survey analysis.

Figures above and below summarize the responses. We requested respondents to rate the probability of an event happening in 2008 on a scale 1 to 5. 1 being �Not a chance� to 5 being �100% probability� The figure above summarizes the overall probability of the event happening. The figure below provides the breakdown of responses.

1. Will Google introduce a Google Branded Phone in 2008?

Will it? Won�t it? 44.5% gave it a 75% or higher chance of happening while 40% thought it ain�t happening. GPhone is a temptation Google will find hard to resist though a lot will depend on how various initiatives and partnerships shape-up on the ground. In any case, expect another major announcement in the next 2-3 months.

2. Will Google play to win in the 700MHz Spectrum Auction?

Google has played the spectrum chess game effectively. Almost 50% respondents gave it a 75% or higher chance of Google winning the bid. Though expectations are high, Google is unlikely to play to win. Services business is not their cup of tea, they could still fund the Clearwire-Sprint deal but that investment can be spent differently to get better end-results, i.e. mobile ad revenue.

3. Will Microsoft launch its own mobile phone?

Unless Google comes out with GPhone, Microsoft will stay content with its operator distribution strategy. 63% of respondents gave it less than a 25% chance of Microsoft releasing their own phone. If GPhone comes out and gets some traction, expect Microsoft to get its �fast follower� strategy into high gear.

4. Will Mobile Payments get traction in North America and Western Europe?

Only 9% thought it is a sure bet for 2008. True mobile commerce hasn�t really started in the western world. While there are significant movements, 2008 will just be a �lay the groundwork� year for mobile payments.

5. Will WiMAX regroup from its setbacks?

Only 35% gave it a 75% or higher chance (of WiMAX resurrecting itself esp. in the US in 2008). A lot depends on how Mr. Hesse deals with Sprint�s WiMAX business. Indications are there will be a deal with Clearwire to off-load the risks via some external investment (Google?).

6. Will Helio survive 2008?

Almost 70% respondents thought Helio won�t make it. Given the flameout of some of the prominent new-generation MVNOs, it is hard to see how Helio will see 2009. It will all come down to how persistent is SK Telecom. Earthlink doesn�t have the bank balance to keep funding this initiative.

7. Will Verizon truly open-up its garden for third-party visitations?

Only 5% thought it is a sure bet for 2008. Verizon�s open posturing was more to ward off any regulators and to improve its image. There is unlikely to be any meaningful progress on this front this year.

8. Will 2008 be the inflection year for Mobile Advertising?

42% gave Mobile Advertising a 75% or higher chance for rapid growth. Market will mature, more consolidation, some privacy gaffes but overall things are looking up for mobile advertising.

9. Will Femto-Cells gain any significant momentum in 2008?

It will be an introduction and experimentation year, so no significant traction is expected. Over 52% thought Femto-Cells will be just a buzz word in 2008.

10. Will Nokia be able to extract iPhone-style rev-share from carriers in 2008?

Less than 20% thought Nokia will be able to do an Apple when it comes to rev-share arrangements. For OEMs, going direct to the consumers was considered treachery to the sacrosanct relationship with the operators. Until Apple showed up with iPhone. Now, Nokia is putting its services strategy in motion and is building a direct relationship with the consumers worldwide and it has a good shot at pulling it off though it will be a long haul.

11. Will Palm survive 2008?

Only 8% gave it a 100% chance of surviving 08 as an independent entity. It will be difficult for Palm to stay in a status-quo mode. They desperately need a hit device that can give them some breathing room. Given all the operational and strategic problems the company is having, a sale is likely.

12. Will iPhone truly open up?

Over 45% thought iPhone won�t open-up in any meaningful way. Apple has built-up one of the most profitable closed empires in the digital world. Are they about open things up? While the iPhone SDK is scheduled for early 08, don�t hold your breath on accessing the critical native APIs.

13. Will there be more unsubsidized devices introduced in the US market in 2008?

Almost 49% thought we are likely to see another unsubsidized device in the US market this year. Nokia is looking to go direct and some GSM handset manufacturers are likely to entertain the idea of testing the market with unsubsidized devices.

14. Will Mobile TV move the needle in 2008?

Almost 70% thought mobile TV won�t make much of a difference in 08.Though AT&T is slated to introduce MediaFLO to join Verizon in the Mobile TV services market, lack of devices and better pricing models will hinder wide adoption in 2008. However, downloadable video and VOD content will experience significant growth.

15. Will Android make a dent in handset shipments in 2008?

Only 15% gave it a more than 75% chance this year. It is going to take some time for Android plans to mature and materialize. Don�t see any material impact in 08.

Of course, 15 questions can�t cover the whole industry. As pointed out our respondents, there are a number of other issues and opportunities that will shape the ecosystem - Rise of Facebook as social networking OS for mobile (social networking as a whole starts to go mobile), LBS beyond navigation, Rev-share shuffles, Chinese OEM start to become prominent in the western world, China and India continue to dominate in net-adds, Mobile device security becomes a nightmare for corporate IT, Consumers wake up to mobile privacy snafus and risks, Will Android spread its tentacles beyond nicheosphere, 3G iPhone, Does China Olympics hold any surprises for the mobile industry? Launch of projection handsets, NFC handsets, IMS .. and much much more ..

All in all, consternation and debate will continue into 2008. We will analyze, dissect, and report as events unfold in the new year.

Look forward to the continuing dialogue and meeting with you in person.

Your feedback is always welcome.

Chetan Sharma