3G – US and Worldwide trends

3G – US and Worldwide trends

Am posting the two graphs (click for full image) that were part of the two columns at GigaOM

First one was with my column on 3G status of EV-DO and WCDMA in the US

Second one was with Om’s column on Status of Global 3G

There were some misunderstandings about 3G. First of all, the first column related only to the 3G status of the two technologies in the US. The figure (1) represents the percent penetration of the subscribers for the two technologies. There is no doubt that EV-DO will dominate WCDMA in the US for the next few years because of late start from both Cingular and T-Mobile. It takes time to assimilate subs on a new technology and while things will accelerate, EV-DO will stay a step ahead till both start reaching saturation. Plus it is simple math – Verizon + Sprint Nextel + Alltel > Cingular + T-Mobile.

From a world wide perspective, we did some analysis on the market last year and the forecasts are holding true. While there was skepticism in the industry, we noted in the paper that the conditions for inflection are ripe, and we should expect the growth factors to firm up in 06 and acceleration to start in 07, and that’s exactly the trend thus far. US is already past 10M (from almost zero), Japan is past 50% 3G subs, Korea is approaching 50%, Europe is following the US trend (on an average, Italy is ahead of the rest). Once China and India start picking up things in 2008, we will see worldwide acceleration.

We will revisit 3G status early next year.

If you need cleaner versions of the images for your use, please let me know and I will send them to you.